Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[atomheartbevo 90674]

1 hour ago, Captainant said:

I think we are going to see a shift in russian strategy towards 1944/45 Japanese strategy - they know they can't win so instead they'll make it as painful and costly as possible to encourage an early armistice. Putin is dancing on a razors edge to not get coup'd as he cranks up the pain on his citizenry, but I don't really know how the plane gets landed without another russian revolution or social restructuring at this point

Agreed, BUT, an early armistice in this instance means Russia keeping Ukrainian territory, which means no Ukraine in NATO, which means Russia makes another run at it down the road.  If Putin pulled completely out of Ukraine, Ukraine gets fast-tracked into NATO, Putin has to explain that/risk a coup, or try and make it an existential crisis for Russia and start a fight with Ukraine before they are in NATO proper.

So yeah, I'm not how the plane will land. It can't land as long as Putin is at the controls, that's for sure.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

we drafted over 2MM for vietnam at a time when our population was about 25% more than russia's now.  i think that is a good barometer.

[Schulz2.0 29293]

Armenia ratified and joined the ICC.

 

[B00M 6736]

1 hour ago, InkaUtexas said:

They have no problem sending their women to work the skin game in Dubai on 90 day visas, so there is that. 

Concerning the WIA I agree. Better Western medicine is available including thousands of people donating equipment, serving as volunteers, etc. Add to that the West opening up hospitals to wounded UA military and civilians. Shorter evacuation lines, and I really don't think Russia invested in front line hospitals in the occupied territories. 

 

The hospitals anywhere near Ukraine were 3rd world looking before the invasion. I’m not going to bother doing extensive research on this but I suspect the only hospitals worth a fuck are likely in Moscow and St Petersburg… 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/the-horror-of-russian-healthcare-a7443121.html

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/climate-and-people/like-something-horror-movie-russias-healthcare-crisis-accelerates/

The Russians and their troll supporters brag that 25k+ Ukrainian soldiers have needed amputations. What they don’t seem to realize is this means they’re getting high level medical care very quickly. Russians won’t publish accurate numbers but you know they’ve got fewer surviving amputees and it’s not because they’re not losing limbs. They just bleed out. 

 

[Gatorubet 30789]

15 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

we drafted over 2MM for vietnam at a time when our population was about 25% more than russia's now.  i think that is a good barometer.

If they can’t give them food, water, ammunition, medical care and rotation from the front lines once in a while given the number of troops today, how the hell do they have the logistics to put hundreds of thousands more people in the field? They can’t re-supply the amount they have now.

And besides the population numbers, I’d love to know the relevant demographics on the amount of 18 to 30 year olds in 1970s America versus the same demographic in Russia today. To reach those numbers they have to draft these guys.  And then supply them in winter. . 

[B00M 6736]

22 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

we drafted over 2MM for vietnam at a time when our population was about 25% more than russia's now.  i think that is a good barometer.

That came at a time when the biggest generation of Americans were peak fighting age. We can’t do that today. Neither can Russia. 

[Trey3216 15453]

2 hours ago, BamaATL said:

There are a couple things I wanted to clarify.

1.  I am not belittling women and their ability contribute to productivity.  I am belittling Russia's attitude towards women and their lack of inclusion in their workforce.  So when I said it's more damning to Russia when men die, it's not because I think women can't be productive, it's because Russia has essentially squandered them as a productivity resource.  

2.  I didn't include/expound on Ukrainian demographics and losses.  Their losses are significant and their human resources are also finite.  However, there are a couple of things that make them and Russia different in this regard.  The first and most important aspect is that for them this is existential, meaning if they don't win, they don't exist.  That's entirely a different picture than what the Russians are facing.  The second is that they have the advantage of western equipment and western medicine in their fold.  I'm of the belief that as a result the kia rate for them is significantly lower, and the wia rate is more apt to be favorable to returning to action.  

On point 1)

You are absolutely correct.  Russia's patriarchal lean is so heavy that they wouldn't be able to function on full war footing, i.e. sending all their men to war.  Our willingness to leave the farms with the women, the kids and the elderly, and the factories filled by Rosie and her millions of cohorts, was the very reason that we could wage war in 2 theaters at such an unimaginable capacity.  The Declaration says it all.  Even with all our faults, that document is exactly why we are able to improvise, adapt and overcome at such a scale that other nations simply cannot comprehend.  So your statement isn't belittling women whatsoever, it's belittling a society that deserves to be belittled post haste.  

[dimyh 1890]

Aussies putting in work on anti-drone systems or possibly the next Mad Max movie.

 

 

[Schulz2.0 29293]

[Parliament 14619]

33 minutes ago, dimyh said:

Aussies putting in work on anti-drone systems or possibly the next Mad Max movie.

 

 

Does it work on ducks?

[MissingInAction 25597]

7 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Does it work on ducks?

[Chad Fuck 18166]

18 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

This is how it should be.  

[Armybrat 41446]

12 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

Cannot confirm for sure, but I am dying watching this! 

 

 

“Sorry comrade, you should have bought our extended warranty”.

[BabaYaga 15631]

58 minutes ago, dimyh said:

Aussies putting in work on anti-drone systems or possibly the next Mad Max movie.

 

 

Robots to kill other robots.  We're so close....

[Armybrat 41446]

3 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

They have no problem sending their women to work the skin game in Dubai on 90 day visas, so there is that. 

Concerning the WIA I agree. Better Western medicine is available including thousands of people donating equipment, serving as volunteers, etc. Add to that the West opening up hospitals to wounded UA military and civilians. Shorter evacuation lines, and I really don't think Russia invested in front line hospitals in the occupied territories. 

 

A friend of mine got very sick while on a river cruise in Russia about 20 years ago and was taken off the boat to a hospital in a nearby large city. 
He said that was supposed to be the best medical facility in the region, but it was a real shithole by western standards. Said he wouldn’t trust them to treat a hangnail. 
Fortunately he had purchased a good travel insurance policy that arranged him to be flown first to a “special” hospital in Moscow that catered to westerners. He was stabilized there before being flown home with an accompanying physician. 
He said one more night in that primitive hospital would’ve been the end of him.

Can’t imagine how bad the medical care is in the war zone for the lowly Russian mobik, if any at all.
 

Edited October 3, 2023 by Armybrat

[InkaUtexas 26959]

5 minutes ago, Armybrat said:

A friend of mine got very sick while on a river cruise in Russia about 20 years ago and was taken off the boat to a hospital in a nearby large city. 
He said that was supposed to be the best medical facility in the region, but it was a real shithole by western standards. Said he wouldn’t trust them to treat a hangnail. 
Fortunately he had purchased a good travel insurance policy that arranged him to be flown first to a “special” hospital in Moscow that catered to westerners. He was stabilized there before being flown home with an accompanying physician. 
He said one more night in that primitive hospital would’ve been the end of him.

Can’t imagine how bad the medical care is in the war zone for the lowly Russian mobik, if any at all.
 

about the same as in the Crimean War I would guess. Please tell us about that. 

[Armybrat 41446]

2 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

about the same as in the Crimean War I would guess. Please tell us about that. 

I’m not Errol Flynn. He’s dead Jim.

[InkaUtexas 26959]

2 minutes ago, Armybrat said:

I’m not Errol Flynn. He’s dead Jim.

Thought you did some mercenary time with Sharpe. 

[Brisketexan 107021]

10 hours ago, BamaATL said:

When I mentioned societal cascade failure earlier, it's not just in reference to simply pulling manpower out of society and converting it to military manpower, I am referring to everything else that I society must do in order to not collapse.  Things like power line maintenance, food production and procurement, general upkeep and maintenance, etc. 

See, here's the thing that makes me disagree with you optimists: Russia, and the Russian people, are more alien than Glorpon from Zelkar-5.

"Social collapse" involves an INSANELY lower floor than we have here.  Power out, no plumbing, no clean water?  No problem.  No decent food?  No problem.  This is a population that can and will survive on one rotting potato per person per day indefinitely.  Suffering and discomfort to Russians is an ordinary state of being.  It doesn't become a problem until they die....and by then, it don't make a shit, they're dead.

They will throw stacks and stacks of available meat sacks at the war.  All they have to do is be 1) human 2) and ambulatory.  That's it.  Those are the sole military standards.  Their strategy is "we have more meat than you have bullets," and when you realize how little value meat sacks have in Russia (zero.  They have zero value), you can see that maybe the calculus isn't off base.

All the shit that civilized, western countries care about?  The well-being and training of troops in the field?  Medical care?  Electricity?  Plumbing?  THEY DON'T FUCKING MATTER IN RUSSIA.  

Ukraine's goal can't be to make conditions intolerable for Russia - I don't think the bar can be lowered enough to get there.

Ukraine's sole goal has to be making Russia run out of meat sacks that it can throw into the fray.

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

See, here's the thing that makes me disagree with you optimists: Russia, and the Russian people, are more alien than Glorpon from Zelkar-5.

"Social collapse" involves an INSANELY lower floor than we have here.  Power out, no plumbing, no clean water?  No problem.  No decent food?  No problem.  This is a population that can and will survive on one rotting potato per person per day indefinitely.  Suffering and discomfort to Russians is an ordinary state of being.  It doesn't become a problem until they die....and by then, it don't make a shit, they're dead.

They will throw stacks and stacks of available meat sacks at the war.  All they have to do is be 1) human 2) and ambulatory.  That's it.  Those are the sole military standards.  Their strategy is "we have more meat than you have bullets," and when you realize how little value meat sacks have in Russia (zero.  They have zero value), you can see that maybe the calculus isn't off base.

All the shit that civilized, western countries care about?  The well-being and training of troops in the field?  Medical care?  Electricity?  Plumbing?  THEY DON'T FUCKING MATTER IN RUSSIA.  

Ukraine's goal can't be to make conditions intolerable for Russia - I don't think the bar can be lowered enough to get there.

Ukraine's sole goal has to be making Russia run out of meat sacks that it can throw into the fray.

This.

Anyone hoping for a mass revolt from the Russian population to bring about an end to this war doesn't understand the psyche of the Russian people. 

As to your last sentence, I would add the caveat that they have to do that before support from the West erodes. It isn't a popular opinion in this thread, but still think Russia can outlast Western support for this war. 

[Schulz2.0 29293]

 

[Armybrat 41446]

20 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

This.

Anyone hoping for a mass revolt from the Russian population to bring about an end to this war doesn't understand the psyche of the Russian people. 

As to your last sentence, I would add the caveat that they have to do that before support from the West erodes. It isn't a popular opinion in this thread, but still think Russia can outlast Western support for this war. 

I think there is a chance there will be a military coup to get rid of Putin if this war continues to go bad for the Russians. 
They have the means, and if their personal ox is being gored enough, a conspiracy could be quickly hatched and put into motion before they get Prigozhin’ed.

Just don’t put the satchel bomb in the wrong spot.

Edited October 3, 2023 by Armybrat

[MillerEP 30907]

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2023/09/28/the-costs-of-russias-war-are-about-to-hit-home

The costs of Russia’s war are about to hit home

Vladimir Putin will be unable to protect citizens from the pain

Quote

Over the past year few currencies have done worse than Russia’s rouble. Last September an American dollar bought just over 60 of them. These days it will buy almost 100 (see chart 1). The drop is both a symbolic blow to ordinary Russians, who equate a strong currency with a strong country, and the cause of tensions in the Russian state. It has blown apart the consensus that existed among Russian policymakers last year, when the central bank and finance ministry worked hand in glove. Now, as inflation rises and growth slows, the two institutions are turning against one another. At stake is the country’s ability to wage war effectively.

image: the economist

During the conflict’s early stages, Russian officials had a straightforward task: it was their job to stop the economy collapsing. Immediately after the invasion began, this involved preventing people from pulling money out of the financial system, by implementing capital controls and doubling the policy interest rate. The rouble hit 135 to the dollar, before recovering. The economy nosedived and then improved (see chart 2). Funded by juicy revenues from sales of oil and gas, the finance ministry then kept the show on the road by lavishing spending on defence and welfare.

image: the economist

Strong oil-and-gas exports also caused the rouble to appreciate, lowering import prices and in turn inflation. This allowed the central bank to accommodate fiscal expansion, cutting interest rates to below where they had been on the eve of the invasion. Over the course of 2022 consumer prices rose by 14% and real gdp declined by 2%—a weak performance, but miles better than forecasters had predicted. Last week Vladimir Putin noted that “the recovery stage for the Russian economy is finished”.

The new stage of the economic war presents officials with tough choices. Mindful of a presidential election in March, the finance ministry wants to support the economy. Bloomberg, a news service, has reported that Russia is planning to increase defence spending from 3.9% to 6% of gdp. The finance ministry also wants to raise social-security spending. Mr Putin is keen to run the economy hot. He recently boasted about Russia’s record-low unemployment rate, calling it “one of the most important indicators of the effectiveness of our entire economic policy” (conscription and emigration no doubt helped).

Yet the central bank is no longer keen to assist. The problem starts with the rouble. It is sliding in part because businessfolk are pulling money from the country. Low oil prices for much of this year have also cut the value of exports. Meanwhile, Russia has found new sources of everything from microchips to fizzy drinks. Resulting higher imports have raised demand for foreign currency, cutting the rouble’s value.

A falling currency is boosting Russian inflation, as the cost of these imports rises. So is the fiscal stimulus itself, warned Elvira Nabiullina, the central bank’s governor, in a recent statement. Consumer prices rose by 5.5% in the year to September, up from 4.3% in July. There are signs of “second-round” effects, in which inflation today leads to more tomorrow. Growth in nominal wages is more than 50% its pre-pandemic rate, even as productivity growth remains weak. Higher wages are adding to companies’ costs, and they are likely to pass them on in the form of higher prices. Inflation expectations are rising.

This has forced Ms Nabiullina to act. In August the central bank shocked markets, raising rates by 3.5 percentage points and then by another percentage point a month later. The hope is that higher rates entice foreign investors to buy roubles. Raising the cost of borrowing should also dampen domestic demand for imports.

But higher rates create problems for the finance ministry. Slower economic growth means more joblessness and smaller wage rises. Higher rates also raise borrowing costs, hitting mortgage-holders as well as the government itself. Last December the finance ministry decided it was a good idea to rely more heavily on variable-rate debt—just as borrowing costs began to rise. In August, conscious of higher rates, it then cancelled a planned auction of more debt.

Mr Putin would like to square the circle, defending the rouble without additional rate rises. He has therefore asked his policymakers to find creative solutions. Two main ideas are being explored: managing the currency and boosting energy exports. Neither looks likely to work.

Take the currency first. The government is keen to mandate exporters to give up more hard cash and make it harder for money to leave the country. In August officials started preparing “guidelines” that would “recommend” firms return not just sale proceeds but also dividend payments and overseas loans. On September 20th Alexei Moiseev, the deputy finance minister, hinted that capital controls were being considered to stem outflows to every country, even those deemed “friendly”.

Such measures are, at best, imperfect. Russia’s export industries form powerful lobbies. The experience of the past 18 months is that the firms which dominate energy, farming and mining are skilled at poking loopholes in currency controls, says Vladimir Milov, a deputy energy minister in the early days of Mr Putin’s reign. Waivers and exemptions abound. In late July Mr Putin issued a decree allowing exporters operating under intergovernmental agreements, which cover a big chunk of trade with China, Turkey and others, to keep proceeds offshore.

Civil war

The Kremlin also wants to create artificial demand for the rouble by forcing others to pay for Russia’s exports in the currency. Central bankers seem to think this plan is pretty stupid. “Contrary to popular belief,” as Ms Nabiullina noted in a speech on September 15th, the currency composition of export payments has no “notable impact” on exchange rates. The only thing that changes is the timing of the conversion. Either an exporter paid in dollars uses them to buy roubles, or the customer buys the roubles themselves. What might help Russia more would be to pay for more of its imports in domestic currency so as to save foreign exchange—and then for foreign sellers to keep hold of those roubles. But there is little sign of that happening.

Russia might consider using its foreign reserves to intervene in currency markets. Yet more than half of its $576bn-worth of reserves, held in the West, are frozen. Using the rest is hard because most of Russia’s institutions are under sanctions that limit their ability to conduct transactions, says Sofya Donets, a former Russian central-bank official. And the country’s available reserves, which have shrunk by 20% since before the war, could only defend the rouble for a little while anyway.

image: the economist

Short of raising rates, the only workable way to support the rouble is to boost energy exports. In theory, two factors are working in Russia’s favour. One is a rising oil price. Since July production cuts by Saudi Arabia and receding fears of a global recession have helped raise the price of Brent crude by nearly a third, to $97 a barrel. The other factor is a narrowing gap between the price of Urals, Russia’s flagship grade, and Brent, from $30 in January to $15 today (see chart 3). This gap is likely to continue to shrink. Since December members of the g7 have barred their shippers and insurers from helping to ferry the fuel to countries that still buy it unless it is sold under $60 a barrel. Russia’s response has been to build a “shadow” fleet of tankers, owned by middlemen in Asia and the Gulf, and to use state funds to insure shipments.

However, Russia’s oil-export proceeds will probably not rise more. Higher prices may depress consumption in America; China’s recovery from zero-covid seems over. Reid l’Anson of Kpler, a data firm, estimates that America, Brazil and Guyana could together increase output by 670,000 barrels a day next year, making up for two-thirds of Saudi Arabia’s current cuts. Futures markets suggest that prices will fall during much of 2024. Although Russia could export more oil to make up for this, doing so would accelerate the slide.

The other bad news for Russia is that it must now earn more from oil merely to keep its total export revenue flat, owing to declining gas sales after the closure of its main pipeline to Europe. In the fortnight to September 19th these were a paltry €73m ($77m), compared with €290m last year. There is talk in the eu of curbing imports of Russian liquefied natural gas. Europe’s nuclear-power generators are also cutting their dependence on Russian uranium.

All this means that, as Russia’s inflation troubles persist, the tussle between the government and the central bank will only intensify. The temptation to splurge ahead of the presidential vote next year will fan tensions, forcing the central bank either to crank up rates to debilitating levels or to give up the fight, leading to spiralling inflation. Alternatively, Mr Putin could cut military spending—but his plans for 2024 show he has little interest in doing that. The longer his war goes on, the more battles he will have to fight at home. ■

For more expert analysis of the biggest stories in economics, finance and markets, sign up to Money Talks, our weekly subscriber-only newsletter.

 

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3873]

we drafted over 2MM for vietnam at a time when our population was about 25% more than russia's now.  i think that is a good barometer.

Now look at the age demographics during the time. Largest generation at that point was draft age.

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

2 hours ago, Armybrat said:

I think there is a chance there will be a military coup to get rid of Putin if this war continues to go bad for the Russians. 

It's possible. But if it happens it probably comes from a group that believes the war is being waged incompetently and can only be won with new leadership. I don't see a military coup bringing about an end to the war but rather an escalation.

[B00M 6736]

1 hour ago, MillerEP said:

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2023/09/28/the-costs-of-russias-war-are-about-to-hit-home

The costs of Russia’s war are about to hit home

Vladimir Putin will be unable to protect citizens from the pain

 

Can you paste this again, as plain text? Even when I highlight it, I’m not seeing any text 

[Post Oak 20583]

7 minutes ago, B00M said:

Can you paste this again, as plain text? Even when I highlight it, I’m not seeing any text 

Copy the link and paste it into

https://archive.ph/

You'll be good to go

 

[InkaUtexas 26959]

Or get off the shitter

[Pescado_Rojo 19593]

3 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Or get off the shitter

You don't think I'm trying?? Damn Chile Verde. 

[Gatorubet 30789]

3 hours ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

This.

Anyone hoping for a mass revolt from the Russian population to bring about an end to this war doesn't understand the psyche of the Russian people. 

“ And then it got worse…”

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

derp, wrong thread

Edited October 3, 2023 by DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt

[atomheartbevo 90674]

3 hours ago, Armybrat said:

I think there is a chance there will be a military coup to get rid of Putin if this war continues to go bad for the Russians. 
They have the means, and if their personal ox is being gored enough, a conspiracy could be quickly hatched and put into motion before they get Prigozhin’ed.

I think it'll be less a coup and more that the people in Moscow and St Petersburg have to truly feel the war, and you start getting large numbers in the streets. 

So many of the rurals and various ethnic groups that Russia is pulling heavily from for mobilization...their lives weren't exactly awesome to begin with, and that's partly why the medical and criminal standards were lowered and age restrictions loosened..  Start pulling from the middle and upper classes in the larger cities and get those kids out in the streets and talking on social media.

I used to think Putin controlling the media (TV/radio) would help him to hold power, but it's pretty clear that most Russians aren't paying attention to Russian state media and its proclamations about this being an existential crisis for Russia because NATO was fighting them, or about nuking Europe and America.  He has some control over social media, in that the Kremlin can get posts taken down, but not fast enough that people outside of Russia can't capture them, or that they don't get passed around.

The fact that he hasn't done a mass mobilization like he did a year ago makes me think he's either afraid of how it will be received this time around, or he's worried about the financial impact (stock markets, etc.).  He has the power to do it, and if he could mobilize even just half-a-million men and get them prepared and quipped in the next few months, that would be huge, but time is running out for that. He's decided to fight with one hand behind his back.

[BamaATL 16593]

5 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

See, here's the thing that makes me disagree with you optimists: Russia, and the Russian people, are more alien than Glorpon from Zelkar-5.

"Social collapse" involves an INSANELY lower floor than we have here.  Power out, no plumbing, no clean water?  No problem.  No decent food?  No problem.  This is a population that can and will survive on one rotting potato per person per day indefinitely.  Suffering and discomfort to Russians is an ordinary state of being.  It doesn't become a problem until they die....and by then, it don't make a shit, they're dead.

They will throw stacks and stacks of available meat sacks at the war.  All they have to do is be 1) human 2) and ambulatory.  That's it.  Those are the sole military standards.  Their strategy is "we have more meat than you have bullets," and when you realize how little value meat sacks have in Russia (zero.  They have zero value), you can see that maybe the calculus isn't off base.

All the shit that civilized, western countries care about?  The well-being and training of troops in the field?  Medical care?  Electricity?  Plumbing?  THEY DON'T FUCKING MATTER IN RUSSIA.  

Ukraine's goal can't be to make conditions intolerable for Russia - I don't think the bar can be lowered enough to get there.

Ukraine's sole goal has to be making Russia run out of meat sacks that it can throw into the fray.

I think you are partially right, in that there are really two Russia's, Moscow,St. Pete and Novosibirsk (to a lesser extent), and everywhere else.  Perhaps in the other Russia, he can shit on them for as long as he needs (but remember, those human resources are finite) without any real repercussion of fear for himself.  If he gets into the population of western acclimatized Russia he's gonna have problems.  

[Brisketexan 107021]

6 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

I think you are partially right, in that there are really two Russia's, Moscow,St. Pete and Novosibirsk (to a lesser extent), and everywhere else.  Perhaps in the other Russia, he can shit on them for as long as he needs (but remember, those human resources are finite) without any real repercussion of fear for himself.  If he gets into the population of western acclimatized Russia he's gonna have problems.  

I think we're going to find out.

My hypothesis is that you can take the Russian out of the wretched poverty and squalor for a generation or two....but you can't take the wretched poverty, squalor, despair, and nihilism out of the Russian.  It's the essence of their being.  Without "and then it got worse," there is nothing to the Russian identity (save and except alcoholism and some beautiful poetry, dance, and such).

[BamaATL 16593]

6 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

I think we're going to find out.

My hypothesis is that you can take the Russian out of the wretched poverty and squalor for a generation or two....but you can't take the wretched poverty, squalor, despair, and nihilism out of the Russian.  It's the essence of their being.  Without "and then it got worse," there is nothing to the Russian identity (save and except alcoholism and some beautiful poetry, dance, and such).

Well, that and revolution.

But right now I only see 2 possible outs.  The first is the liquidation of human resources.  The second being revolution.  I would generally prefer the revolution and subsequent dissolution of Russia, but I'd take the liquidation.  

[atomheartbevo 90674]

4 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

Well, that and revolution.

But right now I only see 2 possible outs.  The first is the liquidation of human resources.  The second being revolution.  I would generally prefer the revolution and subsequent dissolution of Russia, but I'd take the liquidation.  

There is at least a history of revolution in Russia when the ruling class gets out of touch with the serfs and imposes on them for too long.  And it's one of those things that happens gradually and then suddenly, and if you look at 1917 and the late 1980s, and now throw social media into the mix, it changes up the timeline.

As much as we might think/wish that Putin has no clue about what's happening, the fact that he's not hammering Western Russia for draftees is very telling. I'd draw a line from St. Pete's down to Moscow down to Rostov-on-Don - many/most of these people have ties to other parts of Europe, or have visited those parts of Europe in the past (including Ukraine/Crimea pre-2014) and they have a more comfortable lifestyle (complete with visits to resorts in Crimea or the Black Sea).

[956 Worldwide 35601]

I don’t think Putin himself is motivated by a fear of mass unrest or discontent; that’s not to dismiss the possibility of it happening, just Putin as being concerned. His first instinct is to double down when faced by internal headwinds and he likely concluded from the Wagner Putsch that he indeed has this in hand. 
 

Which is why I go back to the original contention that he is leaving Moscow and St. Petersburg mostly untouched because they are key to his strategy of trying to minimize the economic impacts of the war and their workforce is more valuable at home than in arms for the moment.  He really has a tsarist mentality where all of Russia is his to use as he sees fit and he doesn’t think much about the agency of the serfs he pushes around on the chess board. 
 

And again— that’s not to say that popular revolt is impossible, it very much is possible. Just that outside of specific problem areas like Chechnya, Putin doesn’t worry much about it, not part of his calculus. 

[dimyh 1890]

Which I hope is another miscalculation and part of Putin's hubris. That eventually the economic woes begin to squeeze those in Moscow and St Petersberg. These are the ones that have been living with a higher level of prosperity than the backwoods citizens used to wiping their ass in an outhouse. Once those big city folks find their standard of living plummeting off a cliff then they might generate enough grumbling to embolden someone with enough connections to coordinate a coup on vova Putin.

At least that is my most plausible dream to see that fuckwad dead and buried. Or at a minimum just dead. Hopefully the car bomb is big enough that there is nothing left to bury.

 

[Chopper 17450]

Where'd the optimism for a russian revolution of sorts come from? The way I see it is the only way the average russian is going to rebel is by drinking more vodka and/or killing themselves at an earlier age out of desolation. They're not going marching in the streets because they know they'll just end up getting tortured in some cold, shitty prison somewhere. But if vodka or food is suddenly unavailable to the average russian then, sure, shit's gonna go down. Putin will die sooner or later but the only people with any chance of grabbing power are themselves putinists. Anyone who's shown signs of independent thought or loyalty to putinism has already been banished and will have no chance to rise to power.

[atomheartbevo 90674]

25 minutes ago, dimyh said:

Which I hope is another miscalculation and part of Putin's hubris. That eventually the economic woes begin to squeeze those in Moscow and St Petersberg. These are the ones that have been living with a higher level of prosperity than the backwoods citizens used to wiping their ass in an outhouse. Once those big city folks find their standard of living plummeting off a cliff then they might generate enough grumbling to embolden someone with enough connections to coordinate a coup on vova Putin.

It wasn't the big city Russians that were looting washing machines and toilets.

8 minutes ago, Chopper said:

Where'd the optimism for a russian revolution of sorts come from? The way I see it is the only way the average russian is going to rebel is by drinking more vodka and/or killing themselves at an earlier age out of desolation. They're not going marching in the streets because they know they'll just end up getting tortured in some cold, shitty prison somewhere. But if vodka or food is suddenly unavailable to the average russian then, sure, shit's gonna go down. Putin will die sooner or later but the only people with any chance of grabbing power are themselves putinists. Anyone who's shown signs of independent thought or loyalty to putinism has already been banished and will have no chance to rise to power.

I think a revolution is preferable to a coup attempt, because we could always end up with somebody who takes out Putin, who says "NOW WE WILL FINALLY TAKE UKRAINE BACK!" because anybody who takes out Putin is going to be extremely powerful/savvy - it won't be somebody from his inner circle, which is all yes men. It's liable to be somebody outside of that circle who Gets Shit Done, but has flown under the radar for one reason or another.  Think Prigozhin, but more competent.

[atomheartbevo 90674]

45 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

I don’t think Putin himself is motivated by a fear of mass unrest or discontent; that’s not to dismiss the possibility of it happening, just Putin as being concerned. His first instinct is to double down when faced by internal headwinds and he likely concluded from the Wagner Putsch that he indeed has this in hand. 

Prigozhin had to scare the shit out of him, with the lack of resistance along the way.

But also, the dissolution of Wagner has left him with a situation where he lost his most valuable asset/unit that he could almost always rely on.  Wagner was evil as fuck, but they were extremely powerful/savvy/dangerous on the battlefield.

45 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Which is why I go back to the original contention that he is leaving Moscow and St. Petersburg mostly untouched because they are key to his strategy of trying to minimize the economic impacts of the war and their workforce is more valuable at home than in arms for the moment.  He really has a tsarist mentality where all of Russia is his to use as he sees fit and he doesn’t think much about the agency of the serfs he pushes around on the chess board. 

It comes down to how long can he leave the St. Petersburg/Moscow/Rostov-on-Don corridor alone in terms of conscription.  But yeah, like I said, that mass mobilization last year jolted Russian markets, and he wants to avoid that.

[Parliament 14619]

13 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

 

I think a revolution is preferable to a coup attempt, because we could always end up with somebody who takes out Putin, who says "NOW WE WILL FINALLY TAKE UKRAINE BACK!" because anybody who takes out Putin is going to be extremely powerful/savvy - it won't be somebody from his inner circle, which is all yes men. It's liable to be somebody outside of that circle who Gets Shit Done, but has flown under the radar for one reason or another.  Think Prigozhin, but more competent.

Add to that, the new guy might be, you know, competent at occupying and taking land.

[Armybrat 41446]

8 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

Thought you did some mercenary time with Sharpe. 

Damn, I had forgotten about that show. Watched a handful of episodes before it disappeared for some reason unknown to me.

Dude was a badass that tried to counterbalance the Brit foppery of that era.

 

[NotActuallyALonghorn 5005]

You can buy them on Amazon Prime for a few bucks. 

[Armybrat 41446]

1 hour ago, Parliament said:

Add to that, the new guy might be, you know, competent at occupying and taking land.

A majority in the western world thought Putin was competent at occupying and taking land, so a smart replacement might think of other paths to enriching themselves and their elite thugocracy instead of following his disatrous template.

[AUS-97HORN 12057]

10 minutes ago, Armybrat said:

 

7 minutes ago, NotActuallyALonghorn said:

You can buy them on Amazon Prime for a few bucks. 

or, you know, read the 20 book series its based off of. 

[CHIEF 5230]

12 minutes ago, AUS-97HORN said:

 

or, you know, read the 20 book series its based off of. 

You can't take in the fair maiden's ample bosoms from a fucking book.

CHIEF

[Chad Fuck 18166]

Which I hope is another miscalculation and part of Putin's hubris. That eventually the economic woes begin to squeeze those in Moscow and St Petersberg. These are the ones that have been living with a higher level of prosperity than the backwoods citizens used to wiping their ass in an outhouse. Once those big city folks find their standard of living plummeting off a cliff then they might generate enough grumbling to embolden someone with enough connections to coordinate a coup on vova Putin.
At least that is my most plausible dream to see that fuckwad dead and buried. Or at a minimum just dead. Hopefully the car bomb is big enough that there is nothing left to bury.
 

It’s how the Romanovs ended up buried in a ditch.

[Gatorubet 30789]

4 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

I don’t think Putin himself is motivated by a fear of mass unrest or discontent; that’s not to dismiss the possibility of it happening, just Putin as being concerned. His first instinct is to double down when faced by internal headwinds and he likely concluded from the Wagner Putsch that he indeed has this in hand. 
 

Which is why I go back to the original contention that he is leaving Moscow and St. Petersburg mostly untouched because they are key to his strategy of trying to minimize the economic impacts of the war and their workforce is more valuable at home than in arms for the moment.  He really has a tsarist mentality where all of Russia is his to use as he sees fit and he doesn’t think much about the agency of the serfs he pushes around on the chess board. 
 

And again— that’s not to say that popular revolt is impossible, it very much is possible. Just that outside of specific problem areas like Chechnya, Putin doesn’t worry much about it, not part of his calculus. 

Moscow is The Capital and St. Petersburg is District 2 in this year’s version of the Stupid Games. 

“ May the odds be ever in your Fav……Fuck it.  You’re gonna die. “

[B00M 6736]

3 hours ago, Parliament said:

Add to that, the new guy might be, you know, competent at occupying and taking land.

At this point, what would any leader do? Is he going to inspire new volunteer soldiers with yet more extreme and unbelievable anti Ukrainian propaganda? Or maybe a terror attack against his own people?? Oh, Russia. You don’t have an equipment advantage and you can’t build new shit fast enough to matter. You’ll have to push through your own mine fields to take any more land, that you then need to some how occupy, when you can barely hold Crimea. If nukes, where? Kyiv and Lviv? The front lines? Then what? Another wave of nukes until surrender? so you can occupy a hostile nation of insurgents indefinitely? The only chance Russia ever had to win in Ukraine was the first few days.