Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[South Austin 52144]

Four jets? Big time.

[Nonbryan 173]

14 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Danish defense minister looks like she’s about to deploy titties, and I’m 100% behind her on that.  

How rude!

 

[TKthunder2 4981]

11 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Danish defense minister looks like she’s about to deploy titties, and I’m 100% behind her on that.  

Reminds me old an older/chubbier version of Trishelle from Real World/Surreal Life back in the day.

[Sawbonz 27434]

39 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Danish defense minister looks like she’s about to deploy titties, and I’m 100% behind her on that.  

[Kel Varnsen 8430]

I'd deploy my cruise missle in her.

[Jersey Man10 3508]

I’d let her sanction dis dick.

[NorthLoop 14093]

She can get inverted with me anytime 

[Kel Varnsen 8430]

Upon further review, I withdraw my forces.

[bluto 4893]

Knockin clogs

[Parliament 14138]

1 hour ago, South Austin said:

Four jets? Big time.

It's their entire air force.

[JerrysJheriCurl 977]

16 minutes ago, Kel Varnsen said:

Upon further review, I withdraw my forces.

Something is rotten in the state of Denmark. 
Madera no. 

Edited January 27, 2022 by JerrysJheriCurl

[rpspeed 1351]

1 hour ago, Kel Varnsen said:

Upon further review, I withdraw my forces.

[atomheartbevo 89447]

18 minutes ago, rpspeed said:

[Superhero 8774]

3 hours ago, Kel Varnsen said:

Upon further review, I withdraw my forces.

It's just bad lighting. Happens to everyone.

 

[cam4mav 770]

2 hours ago, rpspeed said:

why in the fuck was he telling Porkins to eject...... 

 

 

also, fire titties, FOX-4. 

( . )( . )

[956 Worldwide 34443]

So one way or another it looks like the administration is done tap dancing around NS2 and what happens if Russia invades. I’d be very, very surprised if the State spokesperson was over his skiis here and would bet that the Germans have either reluctantly agreed or at the very least have been told clearly. 

Quote

Driving the news: "I want to be very clear: if Russia invades Ukraine one way or another, Nord Stream 2 will not move forward," Price said in his interview with NPR's Ari Shapiro on the Putin-backed project.

"I'm not going to get into the specifics. We will work with Germany to ensure it does not move forward."

Price noted to Shapiro that Nord Stream 2 was not yet operational, which meant it was "leverage for us" and for Germany. "It is leverage for the trans-Atlantic community because gas is not flowing," he added.

What they're saying: Emily Haber, Germany's ambassador to the U.S., tweeted Wednesday: "The US and Germany jointly declared last summer: if Russia uses energy as a weapon or if there is another violation of Ukraine’s sovereignty, Russia will have to pay a high price."

She added that German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock "stated clearly: nothing will be off the table, including Nord Stream 2."

 

Edited January 27, 2022 by 956 Worldwide

[Pescado_Rojo 19331]

10 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

Danish defense minister looks like she’s about to deploy titties, and I’m 100% behind her on that.  

4 F16s and 2 bombs, amiright?

[Shady Ray 1633]

12 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Putting the estimate of 15 percent of Ukraine’s armed forces as neo-Nazis and more in front line units is a reach. The Azov Battalion is a national guard unit that has been given the status of a regiment and probably has around 1,000 members. Statements that 10-20 percent of the Azov Battalion’s members are new-Nazis (claim made by its leadership) may be underestimates— but it’s certain that the entire unit is not committed enough-Nazis.  Ukraine’s armed forces are a bit over 200,000 people.  Even saying that maybe half of Azov is actually neo-Nazi, that’s 500 troops.  Too many neo-Nazis, for sure but hardly 15 percent of the Ukrainian military’s combat-ready force. 

I broadly agree with this. Russian propaganda drastically overstates the numbers of actual neo-nazis in the Ukrainian military. One of our best “intel for hire” agencies that we use puts the size of Azov as approx 3,500 now, as they have grown in recent years, but either way, it is certainly no more than that.
 

But their existence is much more complicated than a few hundred neo-nazis standing on the front lines of the Donbass. Let’s go back to the article from the National Post in Canada. The Canadian military actively - a full year in advance of training activities - plotted and formulated a way to directly train Azov - a group that their own records show they considered to be neo-nazis, while keeping said training from Canadian/Western media, and even going so far as to generate a protocol to diffuse the situation if the press ever DID get wind of it. A year in advance. If Azov was merely a bit-player in the overall Ukrainian military, then Canada would not have made such efforts - essentially abandoning their moral convictions - to work with them. The payoff in doing so had to be significant. Same goes for the US…if Azov was insignificant and just some bit-player, the US Congress wouldn’t have risked the political fallout of removing them from the designated terrorist list, as military victory over Russia would be just as likely by arming the remaining 90-someodd percent of the Ukrainian military. The reason this type of politically risky behavior has occurred is because while indeed smaller in number, they are the key to any type of organized resistance in Ukraine. They are the “tip of the spear”, and no one disputes this. So, therefore, they are the ones who will be getting the high-tech weapons, they will have access and control over local populations as a result, and they are the ones who will be completely unmanageable if Ukraine collapses internally. Which, mark my words, it will.
 

But stepping away from the discussion on their value to the Ukrainian military to the much more important issue to the Germans: let’s look at the internal, domestic impact of these neo-nazi paramilitaries in Ukraine right now, which is largely fueled by these exact same groups. Over the last five years, some of the shit that has gone on in Ukraine - if widely circulated in the US - would destroy any semblance of optimism that this country is anywhere even close to becoming a functional democracy. The Right Sector, Azov, C14, The National Militia - which let’s face it, are all just different branding for the larger neo-nazi fascist network in Ukraine - and others have systemically asserted what can only be described as brown-shirtism across large swathes of Ukraine, particularly in large population centers like Kiev and Lviv. In short, in an effort to placate these groups, the Ukrainian state has completely surrendered its monopoly on violence, even going so far as to literally sign agreements with them for the creation of a “Municipal Guard’ that can legally patrol the streets...patrols which frequently result in atrocious acts of violent, neo-nazi rage. This is not good. And while it is known abroad, albeit not adequately discussed IMO, when the natural progression towards Ukraine’s internal “troubles” occurs, these groups are poised to inflict absolute hell on the Ukrainian populace. This is 1930s brown-shirtism in its absolute, replicative form.

 

For a comprehenisve, detailed view of this, I highly recommend the Atlantic Council's piece on this - the most pro-NATO/EU of all think tanks: "Ukraine's Got a Real Problem with Far-Right Violence (And No, RT Didn't Write this Headline)"

 

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/ukraine-s-got-a-real-problem-with-far-right-violence-and-no-rt-didn-t-write-this-headline/

 

Also, this Reuters article from 2018 has a very accurate section on this. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-cohen-ukraine-commentary/commentary-ukraines-neo-nazi-problem-idUSKBN1GV2TY
 

Quote

 

"In an ideal world, President Petro Poroshenko would purge the police and the interior ministry of far-right sympathizers, including Interior Minister Arsen Avakov, who has close ties to Azov leader Andriy Biletsky, as well as Sergei Korotkykh, an Azov veteran who is now a high-ranking police official. But Poroshenko would risk major repercussions if he did so; Avakov is his chief political rival, and the ministry he runs controls the police, the National Guard and several former militias.

As one Ukrainian analyst noted in December, control of these forces make Avakov extremely powerful and Poroshenko’s presidency might not be strong enough to withstand the kind of direct confrontation with Avakov that an attempt to oust him or to strike at his power base could well produce. Poroshenko has endured frequent verbal threats, including calls for revolution, from ultranationalist groups, so he may believe that he needs Avakov to keep them in check.

Avakov’s Peoples’ Party status as the main partner in Ukraine’s parliamentary coalition increases Avakov’s leverage over Poroshenko’s Bloc. An attempt to fire Avakov could imperil Poroshenko’s slim legislative majority, and lead to early parliamentary elections. Given Poroshenko’s current unpopularity, this is a scenario he will likely try to avoid.

Despite his weak position, Poroshenko still has some options for reducing the threat from the far right. Though Avakov controls the Ukraine’s police and National Guard, Poroshenko still commands Ukraine’s security and intelligence services, the SBU, and could instruct the agency to cut its ties with C14 and other extremist groups. Poroshenko should also express public support for marginalized groups like the Roma and LGBT communities, and affirm his commitment to protecting their rights.
…
C14 and Kiev's city government recently signed an agreement allowing C14 to establish a "municipal guard" to patrol the streets; three such militia-run guard forces are already registered in Kiev, and at least 21 operate in other cities."

 

I am separating out the most damning sentence from behind the Quote function: C14 and Kiev's city government recently signed an agreement allowing C14 to establish a "municipal guard" to patrol the streets; three such militia-run guard forces are already registered in Kiev, and at least 21 operate in other cities." 

 

This is complete insanity. Human Rights Watch has also recently written about how out of control these street patrols are: https://www.hrw.org/news/2021/11/29/radicals-target-roma-people-ukraine

 

And while Poroshenko is now gone (although my estimation is that he is primed to return to power when the fallout of the current situation plays out), current president Zelensky has not taken any meaningful steps to resolve this out of fear for his own presidency. In fact, this “reformist” Zelensky even continued the notorius fascist Avakov’s tenure until Avakov resigned a few months ago out of his own volition, setting the stage for what many see as the early stages of an organized coup in league with the ascendant Poroshenko. Regardless, the fascist right still exerts massive levels of control at the street level in Ukraine, they still exert massive control within the hierarchy of the Interior Ministry - and thusly, the Ukrainian military - and no Ukrainian Govt can govern without at least their tacit acquiescence. 
 

So when one simply applies Occam’s Razor to the question: “If these groups cause such massive, massive PR obstacles for Ukraine in the eyes of critical European states like Germany in gaining acceptance and political support, and if their influence is simply an overstatement generated by Russian propaganda, then why does the Ukrainian state continue to allow them to effectively act as extrajudicial paramilitary groups operating with complete impunity across the country, along with actual, legally-recognized, formal ties with the Ukrainian intelligence services, and why - at least until his voluntary departure - was the Interior Ministry for years headed by one of their most notorious allies? If they were weak, then why not end their access to power?”
 

The only reasonable answer is that they are, in fact, not weak and inconsequential…in fact, in a domestic sense, they are very, very powerful in the overall clusterfuck that constitute Ukrainian domestic politics. That Reuters article said it all: Presidents fear their administrations can't withstand getting cross with them.

 

Furthermore, the sanctuary that Ukraine passivity/deference creates re neo-nazism is very dangerous to the larger world.
 

I point to a 2022 article in Newsweek, where even the western media is beginning to acknowledge openly what Germans have long known: Ukraine has become a training ground for foreign neo-nazis, many from the US, to come and learn the tricks of the trade, including the very groups that have designs on our own institutions in the US. 
 

From that article a few weeks ago, which I highly, highly recommend everyone read if you would like to see a great dissection of the ties between the extreme right movements that we see in the US and the neo-nazis in Ukraine:

 

https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-war-draws-us-far-right-fight-russia-violence-home-1665027

Quote

A Year After 1/6, Ukraine's War Draws U.S. Far-Right to Fight Russia, Train for Violence at Home
…
And with the Eastern European country teetering on the brink of conflict with neighboring Russia, journalists and researchers are concerned about the kind of combat experience that could potentially be obtained by a strain of extremists branded by the FBI as the most serious threat to the U.S. homeland.
 

One journalist who tracked this phenomenon in the lead-up to the events of 1/6 is Mariana van Zeller. In the final months of 2020, she spoke with one of the leading neo-Nazi groups in the U.S. and traveled to Ukraine to sit down with far-right figures there as part of an upcoming episode seen exclusively ahead of time by Newsweek for the National Geographic original series Trafficked, airing Wednesdays at 9 p.m. ET/PT.

Asked if she had identified a trend in which U.S. extremists were joining counterparts in Ukraine to obtain battlefield experience, van Zeller told Newsweek, "Yes, this was very much what we found in our investigation."

…

Kuzmenko has published a number of materials on the matter in outlets such as Bellingcat, the Atlantic Council and George Washington University's Institute for European, Russian, and Eurasian Studies. He argued that "the proliferation of white nationalist ideology in the military and security forces of Ukraine is an understudied topic."
 

"Since the 2014 Maidan revolution, the government, military and security forces have institutionalized in its ranks former militias and volunteer battalions linked to neo-Nazi ideology," Kuzmenko told Newsweek. "Without screening for extremist ties or views, their integration has not led to depoliticization and/or dissolution once incorporated within the larger body of the government military and security forces."
 

He cites as a prominent example the Azov Special Operations Detachment, also known as the Azov Battalion or Azov Regiment. It was established by the Ukrainian Ministry of the Interior after the conflict broke out in 2014, and was later transferred to the National Guard. Kuzmenko calls the regiment "a highly-capable and heavily armed unit reportedly numbering 1100 or more fighters that is also the military wing of the internationally active Azov movement."
 

"Via Azov's political wing – the National Corps party; described by researchers as neo-Nazi," Kuzmenko added, "the movement has gone international on multiple fronts with known contacts in Germany's neo-Nazi Third Path (Der Dritte Weg) party, America's Rise Above Movement, Italy's Casa Pound, etc.; but also with less-scrutinized international contacts via other branches of the movement that draw less attention but may carry equally dangerous implications."

 

At the risk of being Debbie Downer, the true position of the German government, which they can’t really come out and say, is that the idea of providing weapons to Ukraine is akin to pointing a garden hose at a raging industrial fire and is currently nothing more than a PR stunt by western allies for their own domestic consumption. It is far too little, far too late. The Russian air superiority is so massive, and so designed for this exact conflict, that Russia is simply going to rain hell down upon the Ukrainian front lines with essentially no deterrence capable of diminishing Russian air superiority, potentially inflicting damage from the air deeper into the area east of the Dnieper. The Russians have no incentive to actually expend any energy slogging through ground invasion until the Ukrainian resistance are completely demoralized or obliterated. So none of these weapons are going to make much of a difference, because the Germans do not see the Russians as preparing for an actual occupation. But what the German government DOES see, and which I also agree with, is that whether a Russian attack comes or not, the state of Ukraine OUTSIDE of the breakaways is primed to descend into civil war with one another. In fact, its foundation is shaking right now without so much as a shot being fired and I would put this likelihood at a probability, not just a possibility. And it is THAT which the Germans are trying to inoculate themselves against. The PR catastrophe of these notorious right wing militias gunning down innocent protestors with Hechler and Koch arms or Krause-Maffei self-propelled artillery would be incomprehensible here.
 

Zelensky’s indictment of former president Poroshenko for treason, and Poroshenko’s in-your-face, defiant return to Kiev to face the charges last week, has set the stage for the Pro-EU/Pro-NATO/Pro-Western wings to turn on each other, which will be carried out to a very large extent by the neo-nazi /far-right street gangs that patrol certain urban areas of the major cities. These noises are already being made in local statements and increasingly hostile rhetoric…all at the precise time Ukraine SHOULD be uniting against a common enemy. But they are so dysfunctional that they can’t even do that.People in the West suffer from this great delusion that two political parties who hate Russia must, therefore, be aligned and friendly. Well, these two movements are not. At all. And there are smatterings of lesser parties that will be in the mix, as well, with questionable moral tendencies and massive predispositions to corruption.
 

I will leave it with this: we looked at expanding operations into Ukraine two years ago as part of a German Federal Government incentive program to bring certain types of industry to Ukraine to help wean Ukraine from their ever-expanding dependency on the German tit. We were looking at multiple spots in the west of the country. It would have been a great financial move for us if we could nail down the operational hurdles. We hired our standard, well-known consultants who specialize in analyzing risks for large corporations seeking to expand into new countries. I have personally overseen over a dozen of these types of analyses over the years and I can say I have never seen one come back essentially saying, “y’all motherfuckers are insane if you do this.” 
 

The results were essentially: 


1) Terrible governance; 
2) Massive culture of corruption, specficially supply chain ops will be unable to perform without violating German and American anti-corruption laws
3) Failing infrastructure with little chance of modernization, with or without western investment at the governmental level
4) High potential for domestic unrest fueled by extensive far-right elements. 
 

We didn’t even move to secondary explorations of the proposed expansion. C-Suite killed it the same day that they read the findings. It was terrible.

 

So just to be clear, I do not believe the existence of these groups warrants a hands-off policy, per se. But I do think that the West needs to seriously contemplate the long-term fallout of arming these groups to the teeth in the dead center of Europe. 

 

[Captainant 27464]

9 minutes ago, Shady Ray said:

So just to be clear, I do not believe the existence of these groups warrants a hands-off policy, per se. But I do think that the West needs to seriously contemplate the long-term fallout of arming these groups to the teeth in the dead center of Europe.

Doh c'mon now! When was the last time arming an extremist group to be our proxy belligerents against Russia blown up in our face? I'm sure it'll be fine! /s

[Dnaguy 11776]

9 hours ago, Kel Varnsen said:

Upon further review, I withdraw my forces.

[Shady Ray 1633]

Brand new poll numbers re German population's views on weapons to Ukraine:

 

For reference:
SPD = Social Democrats; Center Left (Senior Governing Coalition Party)
CDU/CSU = Christian Democrats; Center Right (Primary Opposition)
Greens = welp, they are the Greens (Minor Governing Party)
FDP = Free Democrats...think Elon Musky/Ron Paul-ish urbanites who like to get high and are good at stonks (Minor Governing Party)
AfD = Alternative fur Deutschland (Far Right...opposition, dig brown shirts)
die Linke = The Left (opposition, descendants of DDR commies)

 

Berlin (dpa) - A clear majority of Germans are against the supply of German weapons to Ukraine.

In a survey by the opinion research institute YouGov, 59 percent of those surveyed agreed with the Federal Government's position not to provide the country with weapons to defend against a possible attack by Russia. Only 20 percent were in favor of arms deliveries. 21 percent did not provide any information.

Ukraine wants Germany to provide warships and air defense systems for defense purposes, among other things. The federal government has so far only promised 5000 military safety helmets. Ukraine has criticized this as a "pure symbolic gesture". The ambassador to Berlin, Andrij Melnyk, spoke of a "drop in the ocean". Kiev's mayor Vitali Klitschko even called the commitment an "absolute joke".

Both Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) and Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock (Greens) have ruled out the supply of lethal, i.e. deadly weapons. This Thursday, the Bundestag will debate the Ukraine crisis and the German role in the efforts to de-escalate with Russia.

Rejection among Green and FDP voters the weakest

The majority of the supply of weapons is rejected by voters of all parties represented in the Bundestag. This attitude is most pronounced among the supporters of die Linke (71 percent) and the AfD (67 percent). This is followed by the voters of the largest governing party SPD (61) and the largest opposition party CDU/CSU (56). Resistance to arms supplies is still lowest among supporters of the Greens (55) and the FDP (54).

Edited January 27, 2022 by Shady Ray

[Shady Ray 1633]

18 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

 

I mean, is "international call girl ring" really a "large German mulitnational?"

[Ghost of LL 15492]

13 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

Danish defense minister looks like she’s about to deploy titties, and I’m 100% behind her on that.  

Those must be military-grade buttons, because they're doing a lot of work.

18 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

One tweet below that kind of encapsulates where Germany is, and also shows how Macron will need to be careful in leveraging this into a push for EU strategic autonomy. The fact of the matter is that Germany is demonstrating why counting on the EU and Germany is a mistake.  Central and Eastern Europe has experience with a Germany that attacks them and has experience with a Germany that refuses to take their security concerns seriously.  They have never had an experience with a Germany that got their back. This was a chance to change that perception and— let’s just say that there’s been no change in perception.  
 

In recent years, here is what Central and Eastern Europe has seen when Germany does decide to throw its weight around politically: demands that they accept Middle Eastern migrants, demands that they give up nuclear power and coal, demands that they accept a Russian pipeline that undermines their security, and fiscal austerity for Greece. (Hint: all those things are bad). 
 

Now, it’s true that these are smaller, poorer countries and they can’t set EU policy.  And they love German subsidies.  But the EU works on consensus and they absolutely can block shit.  And they will block strategic military autonomy (believe it or not the U.S. would be fine with the Europeans building this capacity).  Because while Macron says that this crisis shows the need for the EU to act independently, the lesson that a good third of the bloc is taking away is “these jokers in Brussels and Berlin would happily sell us down the Volga if the Americans weren’t here to put some stiffness in their spines.”

 

 

 

 

While I very much appreciate @Shady Ray's analysis and don't disagree with his cautionary points re: the Ukrainian fascist groups, this move makes me intensely skeptical of the notion that concern over an ascendant right wing is what is keeping Germany from supporting Ukraine.  

Absolutely nobody in the West would be able to distinguish a German-made rifle from an American-made rifle when shown for two seconds on the evening news.  Nobody would be able to distinguish a Leopard from an Abrams in the quick shot that we're going to see of fighting in Ukraine.

But everybody knows a German helmet.  Why?  Because it looks fucking exactly like the Stahlhelm that the Wehrmacht wore while driving across the Russian steppe.  I mean, just look at it:

Shady Ray brings up legitimate concerns.  But those concerns are not what is driving German policy on this.  German policy is all about the MMBtus.

[Shady Ray 1633]

1 minute ago, Ghost of LL said:

Those must be military-grade buttons, because they're doing a lot of work.

While I very much appreciate @Shady Ray's analysis and don't disagree with his cautionary points re: the Ukrainian fascist groups, this move makes me intensely skeptical of the notion that concern over an ascendant right wing is what is keeping Germany from supporting Ukraine.  

Absolutely nobody in the West would be able to distinguish a German-made rifle from an American-made rifle when shown for two seconds on the evening news.  Nobody would be able to distinguish a Leopard from an Abrams in the quick shot that we're going to see of fighting in Ukraine.

But everybody knows a German helmet.  Why?  Because it looks fucking exactly like the Stahlhelm that the Wehrmacht wore while driving across the Russian steppe.  I mean, just look at it:

Shady Ray brings up legitimate concerns.  But those concerns are not what is driving German policy on this.  German policy is all about the MMBtus.

Oh, I agree. Far and away the most important issue keeping the Germans in line in opposing involvement is by far the fuel, both at the voter and the politician level.

 

But I assure you, the domestic German distaste for the hard right extremism in Ukraine is very real on the narrow issue of weapons supply. Right out of the gate the Germans in 2014 pushed the Ukrainians to clean that up, and literally no progress has been made, and that is an element of the poltical calculus by our betters.

 

But yeah, the fuel supply is by far the big one.

[Enchubben 5509]

2 hours ago, Captainant said:

Doh c'mon now! When was the last time arming an extremist group to be our proxy belligerents against Russia blown up in our face? I'm sure it'll be fine! /s

 i very rarely agree with your view on things - but this was perfect. Almost spit out my drink.

[dcbc 14407]

Edited January 27, 2022 by dcbc

[956 Worldwide 34443]

There’s a bit of conflation going on in @Shady Ray’s analysis of neo-Nazis receiving western military training, which leads one to imagine uniformed Azov thugs getting instruction from Canadian servicemen with Nazi paraphernalia flying. It’s a lot more complicated and I’ll link the full report (which is seriously critical) to anyone who cares to wade through.

https://www.illiberalism.org/far-right-group-made-its-home-in-ukraines-major-western-military-training-hub/
 

Executive summary: Ukraine has a military training facility (NAA).  Some individuals with ties to a far-right group (Centurion) have had access to cadets at the Academy and some members have also trained there. That organization had ties (not fully explained to Azov). Some Western advisors have also taught courses and cadets at that academy and it appears some individual members of Centurion have been trained in the West or with some of those trainers.  And at one point, Canadians and some members of Azov had a photo and meeting (not training).  It’s kind of playing six degrees of white supremacist here and— importantly— it’s also not at all a unique problem to Ukraine and is a constant headache for military cooperation all over the world and indeed within Western armed forces themselves.  Screening individuals is hard to do which is why it’s done at the unit level.

On the broader scale, it’s important to say that no one argues that Ukraine isn’t corrupt, or that it needs to do more on extremism, that it needs better rule of law, and etc. But this is kind of the “all lives matter” of geopolitics. First, because these problems are endemic to a nation that has an active conflict with Russia, that has been more less manipulated by Russia for all of its existence, and where Russia advances these problems as a matter of strategy.  Second, because none of them can be meaningfully addressed until Russia is no longer an existential threat or puppet master. In this light, it’s clear that these are all excuses and not reasons for Germany’s hesitance to recognize that problem ONE is Russia.  Put out the fire before calling the exterminator.

And an important point about German historical responsibility— it is a triumph of Kremlin propaganda and German acquiescence that Germans feel a unique sense of historical responsibility to Russia but do NOT feel that responsibility to Ukraine.

 

Look at a map and read a book.  A tremendous proportion of Nazi atrocities were committed in Ukraine and against Ukrainians and Ukrainian Jews, more than in Russia proper. Collaborationism existed in Russia and among Russians, just like with Ukrainians. The Ukrainians who did collaborate and participate in atrocities did so at the direction, encouragement, and support of Germans. Ukrainians fought and died in far greater numbers as Red Army regulars or anti-partisans than they did as collaborators. 
 

Yet somehow, Germans feel that the weight of history requires them to excuse Russia while castigating Ukraine.  It really is a convenience and not a reason. 

 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13414]

Is there any middle ground that we can assure Russia that Ukraine won't be in NATO but they fall under the sphere of protection of NATO against foreign aggression?  We have to stand up to Russia to some extent because if we back down on Ukraine, they will next say that Estonia and Latvia have to get out of NATO, and don't even consider Finland or Sweden.

[Leeroy Jenkins 2393]

13 hours ago, Kel Varnsen said:

Upon further review, I withdraw my forces.

[956 Worldwide 34443]

23 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Is there any middle ground that we can assure Russia that Ukraine won't be in NATO but they fall under the sphere of protection of NATO against foreign aggression?  We have to stand up to Russia to some extent because if we back down on Ukraine, they will next say that Estonia and Latvia have to get out of NATO, and don't even consider Finland or Sweden.

That would kind of be an own goal.  First, it wouldn’t be credible because the whole founding document is “protection applies to members.” Second, it would create this free riding security dependent that reaped the benefits while not having to undertake the reforms and capacity building that are an important component of membership.

Maybe most importantly, it would be a collapse of our own stance, which is that big countries don’t divvy up small countries between them and that NATO membership doesn’t involve any one except members and “prospects.” It would be agreeing to Putin’s rules in exchange for a tactical victory in one hand of play. Not a good exchange. 

[FartingMonk 3606]

1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Is there any middle ground that we can assure Russia that Ukraine won't be in NATO but they fall under the sphere of protection of NATO against foreign aggression?  We have to stand up to Russia to some extent because if we back down on Ukraine, they will next say that Estonia and Latvia have to get out of NATO, and don't even consider Finland or Sweden.

We can surrender the sudentland and guarantee peace for our time....

 

[Shady Ray 1633]

2 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

There’s a bit of conflation going on in @Shady Ray’s analysis of neo-Nazis receiving western military training, which leads one to imagine uniformed Azov thugs getting instruction from Canadian servicemen with Nazi paraphernalia flying. It’s a lot more complicated and I’ll link the full report (which is seriously critical) to anyone who cares to wade through.

https://www.illiberalism.org/far-right-group-made-its-home-in-ukraines-major-western-military-training-hub/
 

Executive summary: Ukraine has a military training facility (NAA).  Some individuals with ties to a far-right group (Centurion) have had access to cadets at the Academy and some members have also trained there. That organization had ties (not fully explained to Azov). Some Western advisors have also taught courses and cadets at that academy and it appears some individual members of Centurion have been trained in the West or with some of those trainers.  And at one point, Canadians and some members of Azov had a photo and meeting (not training).  It’s kind of playing six degrees of white supremacist here and— importantly— it’s also not at all a unique problem to Ukraine and is a constant headache for military cooperation all over the world and indeed within Western armed forces themselves.  Screening individuals is hard to do which is why it’s done at the unit level.

 

Meh, I can understand the position of the Canadians having difficulty knowing who they were meeting numerous times, but the other example I gave showing the particular value of Azov to the Ukrainian armed forces remains. The US designated them as a "neo-nazi paramilitary militia" in 2015 after John Conyers and Ted Yoho pushed through a resolution on the matter. The Pentagon then actively lobbied a compliant Defense Appropriations Committee to remove that exact Conyers-Yoho amendment from the 2016 miltary budget, over the strenuous objections of the Wiesenthal Center and other Jewish organizations, who absolutely went apoplectic after learning of it.

 

Quote

The news that the Azov Battalion is now legally able to receive American aid has enraged the Simon Wiesenthal Center, which last week successfully blocked the battalion from holding a recruitment meeting in Nantes, France.
“This step is hardly surprising to anyone who has been following the growing danger of Holocaust distortion in post-Communist Europe, and especially in the Baltics, Ukraine and Hungary,” said Wiesenthal Center Jerusalem office head Efraim Zuroff.
“In recent years, the United States has purposely ignored the glorification of Nazi collaborators, the granting of financial benefits to those who fought alongside the Nazis, and the systematic promotion of the canard of equivalency between Communist and Nazi crimes by these countries because of various political interests.”

https://www.jpost.com/Diaspora/US-lifts-ban-on-funding-neo-Nazi-Ukrainian-militia-441884

 

 

 

If they had no significant value other than being a few hundred dudes on the front lines, the Pentagon wouldn't have done that. They are the tip of the spear, so to speak, and it is a bit of a stretch to think we are morally above training and funding extremists to accomplish geopolitical goals we have done that more times that we can count. But we should at least be honest about it as a country when we make the decision to enable that type of element, instead of rationalizing it away as though they aren't a very real and serious problem. We have had years of giving Ukraine billions of dollars in direct aid and even more in weapons. A much wiser position would be to have condition military aid to Ukraine on a system of sticks and carrots relating to demonstrable improvement re their far-right problem. But by cutting them off in congress and then actively rehabilitating them via Pentagon pressure, we escalatd them above reproach when it came to their behavior, making them stronger within Ukraine. I think we could have used the seven years since that time to encourage reform on this issue. But ultimately, what's in the past is in the past and war is an ugly business. It is just another version of FDR's "he may be a bastard, but he's our bastard" when referring to Somoza, and the issue isn't really Azov or their fellow travellers anymore, but rather the issue at hand. 

 

But you did make another point that I found really interesting and would love to hear you expand on it. Specifically, you said: "First, because these problems are endemic to a nation that has an active conflict with Russia, that has been more less manipulated by Russia for all of its existence, and where Russia advances these problems as a matter of strategy.  Second, because none of them can be meaningfully addressed until Russia is no longer an existential threat or puppet master. In this light, it’s clear that these are all excuses and not reasons for Germany’s hesitance to recognize that problem ONE is Russia.  Put out the fire before calling the exterminator."

 

This is a great insight. And I think there is a lot of truth in this insofar as having Russia on one's doorstep in an aggressive posture certainly is not the ideal environment for reform. But a genuine question from a Geopolitical Realism perspective: How does that ever change? From my viewpoint, we are looking at a situation where the best case scenario here is a de-escalation in the form of some vague diplomatic solution where Ukraine is essentially dragged along in limbo with some pipe dream of eventual NATO or EU membership, while Russia gets concessions on other matters like arms control or troop deployents. And the worst case scenario is an all out destruction of the Ukrainian state.

 

But in either form, it doesn't resolve the issue that you identified: Russia is always going to be positioned there physically...it ain't going anywhere. And IMO for the foreseeable future the Russian state is going to have this type of revanchist view towards Ukraine.

 

So, and again, genuine questin for you...short of all out war in which we physically attempt to wrest control of Russia's ability to assert coercive power on Ukraine, what can we do to create a situation where Ukraine has the breathing room to get itself together? And is that even possible? I genuinely don't know but would love to hear your take.

 

And I think that goes to a lot of the analysis of this conflict...we can all see that there is a problem, but as long as Russia wants Ukraine more than we do, is there a true option?

Edited January 27, 2022 by Shady Ray

[Eastwood 4394]

That would kind of be an own goal.  First, it wouldn’t be credible because the whole founding document is “protection applies to members.” Second, it would create this free riding security dependent that reaped the benefits while not having to undertake the reforms and capacity building that are an important component of membership.
Maybe most importantly, it would be a collapse of our own stance, which is that big countries don’t divvy up small countries between them and that NATO membership doesn’t involve any one except members and “prospects.” It would be agreeing to Putin’s rules in exchange for a tactical victory in one hand of play. Not a good exchange. 

That and Ukraine wouldn't like it because they thought they already had that with the Budapest Memorandum. They gave up their nukes under the promise that their sovereignty would be respected.

[washparkhorn 9935]

7 minutes ago, Shady Ray said:

So, and again, genuine questin for you...short of all out war in which we physically attempt to wrest control of Russia's ability to assert coercive power on Ukraine, what can we do to create a situation where Ukraine has the breathing room to get itself together? And is that even possible? I genuinely don't know but would love to hear your take.

One avenue would be to convince Putin that China’s bastardized “World Island” ambitions will overwhelm Russian power and hope he pivots in that direction. 

[956 Worldwide 34443]

Quote

 

If they had no significant value other than being a few hundred dudes on the front lines, the Pentagon wouldn't have done that. They are the tip of the spear, so to speak, and it is a bit of a stretch to think we are morally above training and funding extremists to accomplish geopolitical goals we have done that more times that we can count. 

@Shady Ray, not really because of how the bilateral training actually works.  The motivation is more about bureaucratic hassles and avoiding stepping on land mines.  U.S. trainers don’t come out and train whole units, they train a mix of people from different units and there’s no good way to weed them out without introducing serious inefficiencies and the risk of doing it by accident which is a real shitshow. You can Leahy Vet for human rights abuses but it’s hard to vet for ideology. It’s not because Azov is the super important tip of the spear. 

[Shady Ray 1633]

I am hesitant to post this, as it goes against my role as Doomsayer of the Dnieper, but this is actually a pretty significant development on the localized Ukraine issue.

The Europeans/Russians have been pushing for Kiev and the D/LPR leadership to sit down and discuss directly. To date, Kiev has actively resisted this.

German radio reported that Kiev has now agreed to meet directly to find a way forward and now France 24 is saying the same. The4  Parties agreed to reconvene in Berlin next week to discuss further de-escalation. It’s a small step in the grand scheme, but it’s a significant one nevertheless.

 

 

[CHIEF 5072]

With years of rampant corruption, Neo-nazi "municipal Guards" roving the streets and beating people, and the growing concern of a massive civil war on the horizon. A war that could possibly lead to genocide. It sounds as though Ukrainians have no business governing themselves, or ever having the opportunity of becoming a NATO partner. I have a tough time giving a shit whether or not Russia invades. It's like two shitty siblings rolling up their sleeves and squaring off, and Mom coming in and putting each of them in a corner.

Agree with a lot of others in this thread. We have some very interesting Surlyfolk, with interesting jobs, connections, and information.

CHIEF

[Shady Ray 1633]

6 minutes ago, Shady Ray said:

I am hesitant to post this, as it goes against my role as Doomsayer of the Dnieper, but this is actually a pretty significant development on the localized Ukraine issue.

The Europeans/Russians have been pushing for Kiev and the D/LPR leadership to sit down and discuss directly. To date, Kiev has actively resisted this.

German radio reported that Kiev has now agreed to meet directly to find a way forward and now France 24 is saying the same. The4  Parties agreed to reconvene in Berlin next week to discuss further de-escalation. It’s a small step in the grand scheme, but it’s a significant one nevertheless.

 

 

Quoting myself to say that I posted the wrong video here. The one I actually saw earlier was in German, so i will try to find an english source on this once it trickles out.

[Brisketexan 104624]

With years of rampant corruption, Neo-nazi "municipal Guards" roving the streets and beating people, and the growing concern of a massive civil war on the horizon. A war that could possibly lead to genocide. It sounds as though Ukrainians have no business governing themselves, or ever having the opportunity of becoming a NATO partner. I have a tough time giving a shit whether or not Russia invades. It's like two shitty siblings rolling up their sleeves and squaring off, and Mom coming in and putting each of them in a corner.
Agree with a lot of others in this thread. We have some very interesting Surlyfolk, with interesting jobs, connections, and information.
CHIEF

1 -- Ukraine is an utter shitshow.  Zero doubt or argument.  Also, the only place where we've had our luggage ransacked and shit stolen from us in all our travels (so far, knock on wood).
2 -- the concern here is less for Ukraine qua Ukraine, and more about what it means with regard to Russian aggression and the vulnerability of any number of other states that are uncomfortably close to Russia.  The Baltics have to be shitting their pants.
 
And now, some scenes from the Kiev airport:

[CHIEF 5072]

The "out" to me, seems to be to tell Vlad to go ahead and clean up the Ukrainian shitshow, as most Ukrainians would probably be better off under Russian control. But the Baltics have shown they can govern themselves effectively, and are NATO members. Thus they will be protected by members of NATO, and an attack on them will be defended as would any attack on any NATO member (Germany, France, UK, or USA).

CHIEF

[atomheartbevo 89447]

2 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Is there any middle ground that we can assure Russia that Ukraine won't be in NATO but they fall under the sphere of protection of NATO against foreign aggression?  We have to stand up to Russia to some extent because if we back down on Ukraine, they will next say that Estonia and Latvia have to get out of NATO, and don't even consider Finland or Sweden.

Attacking Ukraine is a good way to push whatever country then remains of Ukraine into NATO's permanent orbit (even if they aren't a member) and it's going to push Sweden and Finland into even closer ties with NATO. 

And if an invasion pushes the EU into biting the bullet and cutting off Russia (including Germany), then Russia has to turn to China to make up the economic fallout (and it could take quite some time), which puts Putin under Xi's thumb, and I don't know how that is favorable at all to Putin. In the short term, he'll have a shitload of dead Russian soldiers coming in daily, along with a shitload of out-of-work Russians who are pissed off that invading Ukraine cost them their jobs.  Long term, he makes Russia subservient to Xi, which doesn't seem like it would make the Russian populace happy either.

[SimonBolivar 10931]

9 minutes ago, CHIEF said:

The "out" to me, seems to be to tell Vlad to go ahead and clean up the Ukrainian shitshow, as most Ukrainians would probably be better off under Russian control.

That whole self-determination thing is supposed to be a core tenant of Western Democracy.

Edited January 27, 2022 by SimonBolivar

[elguapo 4583]

11 minutes ago, CHIEF said:

as most Ukrainians would probably be better off under Russian control.

I'm sure you know more about it than they do.

[CHIEF 5072]

42 minutes ago, SimonBolivar said:

That whole self-determination thing is supposed to be a core tenant of Western Democracy.

 

39 minutes ago, elguapo said:

I'm sure you know more about it than they do.

I'm not saying that it is ideal, but much like being an Armenian in the Ottoman Empire, I would hate to be a non-Aryan in a Ukrainian civil war. I have yet to see Putin practice "ethnic cleansing". The situation is much like a "goat eating grass burrs".

CHIEF

[Cacti 191]

8 hours ago, Shady Ray said:

But what the German government DOES see...is that whether a Russian attack comes or not, the state of Ukraine OUTSIDE of the breakaways is primed to descend into civil war with one another. In fact, its foundation is shaking right now without so much as a shot being fired and I would put this likelihood at a probability, not just a possibility

You—and other posters—paint a dire picture concerning the future of Ukraine, even if Russia doesn’t invade. This article supports the pessimism.

Ukraine is the hollow man of Europe

Quote

Ukraine is disappearing, for two reasons. It has one of the world's lowest birth rates at just 1.23 children per female, and one of the world's highest rates of out-migration. No other country has willed itself out of existence so decisively.

Ukraine in a few decades won't be a sovereign nation, let alone a democracy; it will be a geriatric ward supported by a dwindling flow of remittances.

 

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

5 hours ago, FartingMonk said:

We can surrender the sudentland and guarantee peace for our time....

 

Hell, it''s not even on a Conde Nast must do vacation destination.

[atomheartbevo 89447]

1 hour ago, Bravo said:

BTW why would we stop military aid with sophisticated weapons and why would we let Russia know that?

Maybe trying to cool tensions a bit, but let's not kid ourselves - we just dropped off 90 tons of "lethal aid" a few days ago, and it would not be hard to get weapons into Ukraine if Russia invades.  Easy as hell, versus what were able to in the 1980s in Afghanistan.  

Getting weapons into Ukraine is the easiest thing to do. Getting the Ukrainian government to do what is necessary to train/equip its forces is the hard part, because they are still not fully mobilizing/calling up their reserves and are still trying to downplay things.

It's great they are training civilians all over the country on the weekends to fight in an insurgency, but if you start fully mobilizing/calling up your trained reserves after Russian troops have formally crossed the border, it's a little too late.

[Hook1997 5289]

No CR but what does this look like under Trump or does it even happen?  @Shady Ray @956 Worldwide    Not looking for political comments by others just their opinion, also not a fan of Trump fan or his arrogance but just a what if question for these two so let’s keep it non CR if we can.  Just would like to know from them how this would be different in their opinion without going to CR.

Edited January 28, 2022 by Hook1997

[atomheartbevo 89447]

1 hour ago, Bravo said:

CNN, which is it with this report? BTW why would we stop military aid with sophisticated weapons and why would we let Russia know that? 

19 minutes ago, Bravo said:

true, but you're missing my point. Russia cant know we are stopping lethal aid. agree?

Since you didn't bother watching the video clip that you posted, we didn't formally tell Russia that.  It was "reportedly" us telling the Ukrainian government, which is different than us telling Russia that.  Please don't try to CR this shit and get this thread moved.

With that said, it doesn't really matter if we said it privately and it leaked, or said it publicly, because if we simply stopped delivering future aid (beyond the $650 million that we have delivered over the past year), chances are good that the Russians are doing a decent job of intelligence gathering and the Russians can easily see what is or is not being delivered.  They've got satellites, they've got drones, they have human assets on the ground and have Ukrainian airports/air bases under surveillance.

Like I said, getting military aid in there is not hard - just load up trucks and drive them across the border from Poland to Ukraine. Hell, I'd be surprised if we weren't already stockpiling supplies in Poland, ready to move them across the border.  It's a lot easier than what we did in Afghanistan in the 1980s.  

Getting Ukraine on a full military footing is the hard part.  We are fretting over 130,000+ Russian troops on the Ukrainian border, Ukraine has over 6 million men who are fully fit and eligible to serve in the military (not to mention millions more that could serve in support roles), and NATO could do a damn fine job of arming a shitload of them.  Training civilians in first aid and how to fire a rifle and how to maneuver without shooting your buddy is great for the insurgency and to protect the inner areas, but they should be focusing on getting their reserves up-to-speed and stopping the Russians from getting into those areas.

There is no reason why the West and a fully-committed Ukraine can't make a Russian invasion a fucking nightmare for Putin, especially if it drags out into the spring thaw. Hell, you can make a great argument that Afghanistan was a large part of what brought down the Soviet Union, and a nightmare invasion of Ukraine that sees thousands of Russian soldiers coming home in body bags on a regular basis as Western weapons in the hands of Ukrainians destroy Russian helicopters, aircraft, tanks, and APCs would certainly put a dent in Putin's power.

[956 Worldwide 34443]

9 hours ago, CHIEF said:

 

I'm not saying that it is ideal, but much like being an Armenian in the Ottoman Empire, I would hate to be a non-Aryan in a Ukrainian civil war. I have yet to see Putin practice "ethnic cleansing". The situation is much like a "goat eating grass burrs".

CHIEF

This is silly and very much a part of the Russian propaganda narrative.  No one on the ground in Ukraine will tell you that Ukraine is on the verge of ethnic cleansing non-Aryans  and the only “Civil War” possible is a fake one promoted by Russia like you see in Donbas.  The attitudes among even Russian speaking/Russian Ukrainians have hardened against Russia.

WRT Putin and his practices, the most significant ethnic based repression in Ukraine right now is against Crimean Tatars by Russian authorities.  Oddly enough, one of the most significant “non-Aryan” groups in Ukraine did not welcome Russian overlords and wants to be part of Ukraine again.