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Русский корабль - иди нахуй

Eastwood

By Eastwood
in Daily Texan

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AUS-97HORN
AUS-97HORN

For the love of Christ woman,  stop posting the same fucking thing every 20 mins just to make your neurotic self feel better.     Bring something useful to the thread other than your inane babbli

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InkaUtexas
InkaUtexas

I volunteered today. Log/Admin role to replace people for 30-60 days. The operation is in the west, or should the Orcs win will be pulled back behind the NATO wall. Either way the humanitarian effort

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BamaATL

BamaATL 16592

Posted
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21 minutes ago, Viper said:

Russians also get their history wrong, Halloween isn't pagan and doesn't seem to have anything to do with Samhain other than coincidentally falling on the same date.

 

Not surprised that coven wants to suppress Halloween.  They are also conveniently against wart cream and asking for a go fund me for brooms.  

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 104537

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8 minutes ago, Scheiss Meister said:

No!  Not Halloween!

I think that those broads are just mad about being called out as the witches they are.

ETA - How many Ugly Trees does Russia have?  Or did they all fall out of the same one?

What was the casting call for that?  "Igor!  Go out and round up the ugliest hags on the face of the earth!"  Jesus.  That was the most horrifying Halloween video I've ever seen.

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Bevo

Bevo 13516

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21 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

All of them unless the newer variants were fired right from the front lines. I guess they could have loaded them up on a boat.  

Kherson to Sevastopol is 149mi by air. Some ATACMS have a purported range of 190mi.

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89396

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26 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

All of them unless the newer variants were fired right from the front lines. I guess they could have loaded them up on a boat.  

amphibious-himars-behind-saky-airbase-strike-v0-myiilfer6qg91.jpg.webp.e169d83cbdcf6a9c82b82836ab965872.webp

2 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Belbek is outside of Sevastopol - seems like the range is too far.

1 hour ago, Schulz2.0 said:

With that attitude...

But not with that altitude.

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89396

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6 minutes ago, Bevo said:

Kherson to Sevastopol is 149mi by air. Some ATACMS have a purported range of 190mi.

I don't think we've given them the good stuff yet, and they have been amazingly good about keeping them away from Russian drones and the like, which means a decent distance  behind their lines.

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BamaATL

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4 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

I don't think we've given them the good stuff yet, and they have been amazingly good about keeping them away from Russian drones and the like, which means a decent distance  behind their lines.

Maybe the German Taurus missile, it's been teased as possibly being in play.  

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89396

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21 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

As I said, all of them unless the longest range variants were fired pretty close to the front lines. Possible, but a little risky.

The longest range variants have one warhead as well I believe.

I'm sure the Russians will post photos of the missile casing soon enough, and we'll all see it was some missile we weren't expecting.

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BamaATL

BamaATL 16592

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16 minutes ago, KYHorn said:

They did just give them a new round of aid 

The thing about the Taurus is, it's more of a bunker buster type, although there are variants, but it wouldn't make a ton of sense for this sort of strike.  We've all seen published data on ranges for ATACMs, but real ranges could be/probably are a bit different than we know.  Straight up ballistic trajectory might be one thing, but a different configuration or trajectory could be possible, and we just don't know about it.  

Though @atomheartbevo is right, the Russians will be good enough to post of video of the casing here in a few hours.  I just hope they got all the SU-31s and 25s there.  

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BamaATL

BamaATL 16592

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Something else I just thought about, that might make some sense, what if the crossing of the river in Kherson was actually a diversionary tactic?  Attract all the Russian attention in the area to that crossing, meanwhile, very quietly, over a week or so, sneak as far south as possible with a HIMARs to launch an ATACMs at the base?  This presumes that would be close enough, it may well be.  

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KYHorn

KYHorn 16833

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In a very interesting development, US Ambassador to Kazakhstan Daniel Rosemblum inaugurated a NATO liaison office in the country's capital.

The news has flown under the radar, but it's a very interesting development that's had a lot of resonance in Russia in particular.

After Russia, Kazakhstan is the biggest supplier of active troops to the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO).

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89396

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8 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

Hungarians still marching. 

 

The last 3 years have been nuts, with 2022-2023 reshaping the balance of power and Europe's stance towards Russia, and 2023-2024 maybe reshaping the Middle East, complete with the Saudis shooting down missiles headed towards Israel, Türkiye breaking with the West, etc.

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89396

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@BamaATL didn't see it explicitly mentioned in that thread (although all of the talk of the military police and FSB facilities sure points in that direction), but wonder if this is related to the reports that the Russians were having to use barrier troops around Avdiivka because the Ukrainians were hammering them and Russian troops were retreating without permission.  We know the Russians are getting fucked up really badly in that area from all the videos coming out and the amount of bitching Russian milbloggers are doing.

Russian soldiers get a choice of dying in Ukraine or being tortured by the FSB.

FOd4sc_VgAEYPwC.jpg

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15469

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1 hour ago, BamaATL said:

 

You want to know how this war ends?  It's not how the Sergeant Major predicts in 1917: "last man standing."  It's how World War I actually ended: with one side suffering a mutiny that renders it incapable of further combat.

And actually, that's how World War I ended twice.  On the Eastern Front, the Bolshevik Revolution and ancillary mutinies in the Russian Army (particularly in the four armies of the Northern Front) rendered any further Russian/Soviet resistance ineffective.  And on the Western Front, the French had a large mutiny in 1917 that threatened to cause an Allied collapse before the mutinies in the German military in November 1918 ultimately ended the war.

We're going to have to have that again.  Both Russia and Ukraine have enough men and access to enough weaponry that neither one is going to be able to get to the "last man standing."  One of their militaries is going to collapse into mutiny.

I know whom I have my money on.

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Schulz2.0

Schulz2.0 28761

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13 minutes ago, Von Clausewitz said:

Another option is a society and its army just collapse as it can no longer field a functioning army. Both countries have had poor demographics and birth rates, but Ukraine’s are still demonstrably worse. Basically they’d need to be killing/wounding 3 Russians per Ukrainian to match up, and that’s a conservative estimate. That isn't happening.
 

As has been stated, after the initial 3 day plan blew up, the Russian play has always been to grind it out until Ukraine army wears out or Western support dries up. Always been a good bet.
 

giphy.gif?cid=6c09b952495byh4clnendm5pyg

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Schulz2.0

Schulz2.0 28761

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42 minutes ago, Von Clausewitz said:

About what? It being a good bet? Probably still is. 
 

The numbers are the numbers. 

When the Russians do insanely stupid shit like Bakhmut and Avdiivka, yes, Ukraine is above a 3:1 ratio. In terms of support, I was assured by the Russian apologists that there was no way Germany would fully back Ukraine and sanctions for Russia.

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MillerEP

MillerEP 30339

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She’ll production in the US alone is producing 28,000 a month, with a plan to get 100,000 a month in 2 years.

https://www.defensenews.com/land/2023/10/06/us-army-awards-15b-to-boost-global-production-of-artillery-rounds/

Meanwhile South Korea is filling in gaps by providing 500,000 rounds.

https://www.reuters.com/world/south-korea-lend-500000-rounds-artillery-shells-us-report-2023-04-12/

This also doesn’t include the rounds Ukraine have started to produce, the joint Rehmentel venture, or even the rest of Europe.

https://news.yahoo.com/ukraine-shell-production-significantly-higher-152500962.html

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/23/world/europe/eu-ukraine-war-ammunition.html


All in all, Ukraine will be fine to outlast Russia when everything truly gets ramped up.

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AUS-97HORN

AUS-97HORN 11669

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we already pulled the Russian demographic numbers multiple times on this thread, hell it was talked about even before Feb 22. 

Russia doesnt have enough "real" military age men to outlast Ukraine.  by real, I mean 17-35. after 35 the Russian males fitness ability falls off a cliff. which is why we keep seeing pics of pot-bellied 50 year olds who cant fucking stand without a cane holding a rusted rifle.

Russian Age Range by gender

that site shows that there are only 17M Russian males between the age of 15-34. 

and this study showed that only 12% of Russian Males beween 18-27 were eligible to serve. and 60% of them were not accepted due to health reasons in 2011.

Now, in a war situation, Russia will toss as many of them in as can possibly stand up, but still.  even if we assumed 15% of the 17M Russian males could technically serve.  Thats only 2.55M healthy enough Russian men who could serve country-wide if they fully mobilized and gave all available jobs to women.  With another  3M age 35-50 meatbag fodder available to die and not do much else.

 

In the meantime, the least optimistic estimates are saying that Russia has lost at least 150k killed, and another 80k or so permanently wounded.   

Yes, a large number of those deaths are the 35-50yo meatbag fodder deaths from the conscription draft.

But that still tells you that probably somewhere in the range of 5% of all Militarily healthy Russian males have already been removed from the board.   And MOSCOW AND ST. PETE REALLY HAVENT BEEN TOUCHED.

Russia is no-bullshit running out of meatbags a fuckload faster than Ukraine is running out of eligible future fighters, plus Ukraine is letting women serve in active combat roles- something Russia is not doing.

 

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Nivek

Nivek 16843

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, MissingInAction said:

And if I had a billion dollars I'd be banging 11s every day.

Every day? I mean, wouldn't you like to mix it up with a really enthusiastic 4-7 every now and then or just completely go for a 2-3 just for shits and giggles?  Hugh Grant seems to think so. 

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