Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[AUS-97HORN 11558]

1 minute ago, Bevo said:

315K dead - not including wounded.

 

1 hour ago, Parliament said:

Link to the Sky News article: https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-russia-war-latest-putin-sky-news-blog-12541713?postid=6910575#liveblog-body

US intelligence officials have assessed that Russia has suffered 315,000 dead and injured troops since its invasion of Ukraine.

Officials say this represents nearly 90% of military personnel Russia had when the conflict began. 

That means they only have 35k troops left? That and a buncha conscripts?  That can't be right.

KIA/WIA

[atomheartbevo 89046]

2 minutes ago, Bevo said:

315K dead - not including wounded.

It's gotta include wounded, because there'd easily be 300,000-500,000 or more wounded on top of that (I know their medical care is shit for their soldiers but I can't see the killed passing the wounded up).

 

[MillerEP 30277]

 

[atomheartbevo 89046]

18 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

^New Polish government looks promising

The Europeans starting to sort themselves out, and Poland taking up the mantle of leadership in Europe - I think way too many Americans do not realize that this is a watershed moment.  It may not be as big as the Berlin Wall falling/breakup of the Soviet Union/Warsaw Pact, and you might even argue that this is a pseudo-continuation of what started in 1989-1991 (the final stage perhaps), but it's major, and includes Finland and Sweden formally aligning with NATO.

And Poland stepping up, Germany is all

[Brisketexan 103653]

1 minute ago, atomheartbevo said:

The Europeans starting to sort themselves out, and Poland taking up the mantle of leadership in Europe - I think way too many Americans do not realize that this is a watershed moment.  It may not be as big as the Berlin Wall falling/breakup of the Soviet Union/Warsaw Pact, and you might even argue that this is a pseudo-continuation of what started in 1989-1991 (the final stage perhaps), but it's major, and includes Finland and Sweden formally aligning with NATO.

And Poland stepping up, Germany is all

I've been telling both of my kids -- who are interested in making their careers in the international arena -- that the center of gravity in Europe, or at least ONE of the major centers of gravity in Europe, may well be shifting east.  It's fascinating to watch.

[Bevo 13439]

10 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

It's gotta include wounded, because there'd easily be 300,000-500,000 or more wounded on top of that (I know their medical care is shit for their soldiers but I can't see the killed passing the wounded up).

 

Yeah, I wasn't fast enough hitting delete. It looks like two people caught it. You guys are faster than I am.

Edited December 12, 2023 by Bevo

[Celery Man 20607]

I can’t keep up with what’s going in but just passively I’ve seen so much brutal WWI type shit from Avdiivka. Just crazy.

[InkaUtexas 24933]

Press Statement

 

 

December 12, 2023

 

The United States is today announcing a new package of weapons and equipment to support the people of Ukraine as they defend their country and their freedom against Russia’s aggression.

This package provides up to $200 million of arms and equipment under previously directed drawdowns for Ukraine. Capabilities provided in today’s package include air defense munitions, air defense system components, additional munitions for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, artillery ammunition (including 155mm and 105mm), High-speed Anti-Radiation Missile missiles, anti-armor munitions, small arms ammunition, a demolitions package, HESCO barriers, and spare parts, ancillary equipment, services, training, and transportation.

The United States and the coalition of more than 50 countries we have assembled continues to provide critical support for Ukraine’s forces. However, unless Congress take action to pass additional aid, this will be one of the last security assistance packages we will be able to provide Ukraine.

We continue to urge Congress to advance our national security interests by helping Ukraine

[BamaATL 16253]

21 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Press Statement

 

 

December 12, 2023

 

The United States is today announcing a new package of weapons and equipment to support the people of Ukraine as they defend their country and their freedom against Russia’s aggression.

This package provides up to $200 million of arms and equipment under previously directed drawdowns for Ukraine. Capabilities provided in today’s package include air defense munitions, air defense system components, additional munitions for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, artillery ammunition (including 155mm and 105mm), High-speed Anti-Radiation Missile missiles, anti-armor munitions, small arms ammunition, a demolitions package, HESCO barriers, and spare parts, ancillary equipment, services, training, and transportation.

The United States and the coalition of more than 50 countries we have assembled continues to provide critical support for Ukraine’s forces. However, unless Congress take action to pass additional aid, this will be one of the last security assistance packages we will be able to provide Ukraine.

We continue to urge Congress to advance our national security interests by helping Ukraine

It's gonna get done before the end of the week, my guess is Thursday.  The get and give part of the negotiation is completely unrelated to Ukraine.  

[InkaUtexas 24933]

22 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

It's gonna get done before the end of the week, my guess is Thursday.  The get and give part of the negotiation is completely unrelated to Ukraine.  

I hope all the republican's gardeners use round up instead of miracle grow.

[BamaATL 16253]

3 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

I hope all the republican's gardeners use round up instead of miracle grow.

The Dems will give a bit on the border, not the entire kitten caboodle, but some, and the deal will get done pretty quick after that.  Everyone claims a win.  That's politics.  

The telling part is that no one is even referencing the money as a negotiating point.  

[B00M 6033]

6 hours ago, brakeman said:

more!

The number of blue checked Russian propaganda pieces in the comments is discouraging… good thing musk nurtured this festering wound

[B00M 6033]

4 hours ago, Parliament said:

Link to the Sky News article: https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-russia-war-latest-putin-sky-news-blog-12541713?postid=6910575#liveblog-body

US intelligence officials have assessed that Russia has suffered 315,000 dead and injured troops since its invasion of Ukraine.

Officials say this represents nearly 90% of military personnel Russia had when the conflict began. 

That means they only have 35k troops left? That and a buncha conscripts?  That can't be right.

They’ve been conscripting the whole time. They “train” troops so quickly that they’re still able to replace every troop they lose to maintain an active army of 300-400k. It is largely accurate that they no longer have a professional army. Neither does Ukraine. 

[InkaUtexas 24933]

I think Ukraine has a professional core. NCO's and young officers with NATO training. Where does Russia send its conscripts? Let the Norks train them?

[B00M 6033]

2 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

I think Ukraine has a professional core. NCO's and young officers with NATO training. Where does Russia send its conscripts? Let the Norks train them?

From intercepted phone calls home, they go somewhere in Russia for about 6 days of check the box training where they get to unload a full TWO or maybe even THREE magazines. From there, straight to the front with a few magazines and no food or water. What’s the point? They’ll be dead in a week. They do get drugs and vodka though, which surely helps ease the pain of bleeding to death from treatable injuries. There’s no cover at all and they’re ordered down paths the Ukrainian drones and artillery are already aimed at. It’s really something 

[brakeman 28093]

brutal.

[B00M 6033]

14 minutes ago, brakeman said:

brutal.

It’s really insane. From an ignorant American’s perspective, there’s no excuse for Russia being unable to defeat Ukraine. But from the top down, their society is unrecognizable to an average American. Demonstrably, the average Russian male has more value to Putin being killed by a $200 Ukrainian built kamikazi drone than he does serving in Russian society. Putin hits the proverbial jackpot when Ukraine has to use a western provided weapon like a cluster strike on these conscripts because it means western societies will have to debate more support sooner. Meat assaults will continue until Russia collapses or the west gets tired of killing them. 

[InkaUtexas 24933]

So lets help Ukraine kill them faster. I would love to see the SBU fuck up his palace in Sochi

[Jameslaw121 4440]

51 minutes ago, B00M said:

It’s really insane. From an ignorant American’s perspective, there’s no excuse for Russia being unable to defeat Ukraine. But from the top down, their society is unrecognizable to an average American. Demonstrably, the average Russian male has more value to Putin being killed by a $200 Ukrainian built kamikazi drone than he does serving in Russian society. Putin hits the proverbial jackpot when Ukraine has to use a western provided weapon like a cluster strike on these conscripts because it means western societies will have to debate more support sooner. Meat assaults will continue until Russia collapses or the west gets tired of killing them. 

It's actually worse than that. From a PBS Newshour report from Dec 11th. Russian's ethnic minorities are 75 times wore likely to die than men from Moscow. 6 out of the ten regions with the highest mortality rate are from Siberia or the far east.

I think this is why you don't see as much blowback from the Moscow/St. Petersburg as I thought there would be considering the amount of deaths and injuries. Those aren't the ones doing the dieing.  Putin is effectively comitting genocide on two fronts.

 

[statsman 5355]

27 minutes ago, Jameslaw121 said:

It's actually worse than that. From a PBS Newshour report from Dec 11th. Russian's ethnic minorities are 75 times wore likely to die than men from Moscow. 6 out of the ten regions with the highest mortality rate are from Siberia or the far east.

I think this is why you don't see as much blowback from the Moscow/St. Petersburg as I thought there would be considering the amount of deaths and injuries. Those aren't the ones doing the dieing.  Putin is effectively comitting genocide on two fronts.

 

It’s incredibly cynical. Don’t forget the Ukrainians from occupied areas that Russia press gangs and puts in Storm units.
 
 It would be as if LBJ had decided, “Let’s fight in Vietnam with mostly drafted prisoners, ethnic minorities from the inner cities, duped residents of our territories (like Peurto Rico, the Phillipines) and any poor soul dumb enough to cross our borders looking for work”. 
 
 

[InkaUtexas 24933]

Puerto 

[atomheartbevo 89046]

2 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

 Where does Russia send its conscripts? Let the Norks train them?

Norks would eat them.

[statsman 5355]

21 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Puerto 

You know, you’d think that when you really needed autocorrect…

[BamaATL 16253]

Congressional Holiday Break pressure is real

 

[KYHorn 16721]

 Yes it seems so.
This original post only said this:
'We have somewhat unusual drones that are better at destroying Russian infantry than before. No details yet🤫
Avdiiv direction. The Mutant group of the TsSO A SBU works.
The Russians will die perfectly. Pay particular attention to 1:30.
At first, the occupier did not even understand what had happened. He walked a little and collapsed from massive blood loss.'

[Nivek 16689]

keep in mind that 350k troop count was talking about Russian troops involved in the original  3 day invasion.
since then they have also transferred an undetermined number of troops (sailors, airmen) from other Russian bases that werent part of the original attack force, plus the conscripts, and I think the 315K # includes Wagner, which Russia doesnt count as being part of their troops.  
 
But 315k KIA/WIA is a fucking huge number. 
 
our total CASUALTY number in Vietnam was something like 215,000. That includes everything, WIA/MIA/KIA/Captured and was over 20 years.
 
These fuck sticks managed to beat that number by almost 50% in less than 2 years.

Well they keep trying to celebrate the Second World War by using First World War tactics.

It makes sense if you are a Russian who has been bottle fed vodka since birth.

[RPM 26097]

3 hours ago, KYHorn said:

 Yes it seems so.
This original post only said this:
'We have somewhat unusual drones that are better at destroying Russian infantry than before. No details yet🤫
Avdiiv direction. The Mutant group of the TsSO A SBU works.
The Russians will die perfectly. Pay particular attention to 1:30.
At first, the occupier did not even understand what had happened. He walked a little and collapsed from massive blood loss.'

Flying Claymores

[atomheartbevo 89046]

5 minutes ago, RPM said:

Flying Claymores

That makes a helluva lot of sense, and we have a shitload of them, and we have sent a bunch over.

USA: Hey, we have a bunch of these mines that we invented over 60 years ago, that you can place around your forward trenches to protect your men, and they shoot over 600 small steel balls out to 100m.

Ukraine: Perfect! We'll strap them to drones!

[B00M 6033]

Disclaimer: not certain this chart is accurate, but if it is, it seems to tell an interesting story. OPEC has been steadily cutting production trying to drive up the price per barrel. Russia can’t afford to cut production. Is the US weaponizing production (by quietly incentivizing producers?) or is it actually profitable for us to produce like this at $69/barrel? No matter the motivation, this has to be hurting Russia so I love to see it. 

 

Edited December 13, 2023 by B00M

[Ghost of LL 15255]

18 hours ago, Parliament said:

Link to the Sky News article: https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-russia-war-latest-putin-sky-news-blog-12541713?postid=6910575#liveblog-body

US intelligence officials have assessed that Russia has suffered 315,000 dead and injured troops since its invasion of Ukraine.

Officials say this represents nearly 90% of military personnel Russia had when the conflict began. 

That means they only have 35k troops left? That and a buncha conscripts?  That can't be right.

It's akin to the experience of the British Army in World War I.

At the beginning of 1914, the British Army had roughly 250,000 troops.  In August and September, about half those were sent to France as the British Expeditionary Force.  By the end of the year, pretty much all of them were dead or wounded.

On Boxing Day 1914, the British Army formed the Second Army.  That's not a term like the Germans had with First Army and Second Army, which invaded Belgium and France in August 1914.  The British Second Army was more like "we need to raise a second army because the first army got all killed and shit in the first five months of this war."

That's where Russia is.  Their first army is gone.  They've now formed a second (and probably really a third) army.

17 hours ago, MillerEP said:

 

^New Polish government looks promising
 

 

I'm just going to tell you--at this point, I don't see how Ukraine can prevail without direct Polish involvement.

And what worries me is that I don't think the Poles are inclined to allow Ukraine to lose.

[atomheartbevo 89046]

7 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

That's where Russia is.  Their first army is gone.  They've now formed a second (and probably really a third) army.

Theye might very well be on a third, or building a third army.  

In this context, I'd say their first army was pretty much wiped out in 2022, at the latest in early 2023.  And that included most of their training battalions, that were stripped early on of their instructors (who were sent to fight), because that was a total short-term move aka "we just need to knock this out right now, so we don't need training battalions in the short term".  Those training battalions were never reconstituted. That's a huge ripple effect.

That loss was the reason for the massive mobilization in the fall/winter of 2022 (where they saw 500,000 - 700,000 or more men fleeing the country).

I think the second army was probably mostly lost from early 2023 through the early fall, but I think the shell of it may still be there.

We probably are on a third army or will be within 5-6 months, because the quality of men, training, equipment, is vastly different than what they rolled in with in February 2022, and it feels like it's different than what we saw 6 months ago.

I'm also wondering if they are letting men out after their supposed one-year conscription/mobilization term. I'd say they weren't unless they were wounded.

[Parliament 14017]

52 minutes ago, B00M said:

 Is the US weaponizing production (by quietly incentivizing producers?) or is it actually profitable for us to produce like this at $69/barrel? No matter the motivation, this has to be hurting Russia so I love to see it. 

I'll defer to the Oil Baron thread, but I think American oil producers have rung out costs to the point they can compete heads up.

[Bevo 13439]

36 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

It's akin to the experience of the British Army in World War I.

At the beginning of 1914, the British Army had roughly 250,000 troops.  In August and September, about half those were sent to France as the British Expeditionary Force.  By the end of the year, pretty much all of them were dead or wounded.

On Boxing Day 1914, the British Army formed the Second Army.  That's not a term like the Germans had with First Army and Second Army, which invaded Belgium and France in August 1914.  The British Second Army was more like "we need to raise a second army because the first army got all killed and shit in the first five months of this war."

That's where Russia is.  Their first army is gone.  They've now formed a second (and probably really a third) army.

I'm just going to tell you--at this point, I don't see how Ukraine can prevail without direct Polish involvement.

And what worries me is that I don't think the Poles are inclined to allow Ukraine to lose.

Luckily, Poland has almost 40M people. That is 4X larger than the Czech Republic and Hungary. That is a large enough population to take on an extremely weakened Russia. There is no way for Russia to win a war of attrition with Poland concurrent with the war in Ukraine.

And I'm not sure Poland should allow Russia to win against Ukraine. It knows that Putin wants to put the USSR back together again. And after going through that shit once, in no way shape or form does it want to be a Russian puppet state again. So, it is better for Poland to fight now rather than waiting for Russia to rebuild.

 

Poland to have strongest land army in Europe by 2026: Defense minister Polish Army to have 500 HIMARS launchers in 28 squadrons by 2026, with deliveries beginning at end of 2025, says Mariusz Blaszczak.

 

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/poland-to-have-strongest-land-army-in-europe-by-2026-defense-minister/2989460

Edited December 13, 2023 by Bevo

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11562]

i just sense the manpower doesn't matter at all.  we will never get to a point where enough people have died for russia so they are getting weak.  they can infinitely re-up their lines from eastern russia, then millions of folks like wagner got from africa or ME, or empty some more prisons, or DPRK sending dudes over.  the same is basically true with arms.  no victory by attrition here.

the only progress can be through taking a chunk of land and holding it.   keep doing that until we reach the border.

[MissingInAction 24426]

Poland watching this war is like an abuse victim watching the trial of their abuser, yet can't testify.

Edited December 14, 2023 by MissingInAction
Yet for but

[Schulz2.0 28652]

[jdhorn92 1534]

What finally drove the RU out of Afghanistan?  That is what will ultimately doom their UKR efforts imo.    I dont have enough background knowledge of how that campaign ended.  From the looks of things and reading upthread about their manpower replenishment strategy, about the only way I see this ending anytime soon would be to look at Afghanistan.

[Pescado_Rojo 19262]

2 hours ago, MissingInAction said:

Poland watching this war is like an abuse victim watching the trial of their abuser, but can't testify.

And silently plotting a way to jump over the rail and stab them in the heart with a letter opener 

[MissingInAction 24426]

20 minutes ago, jdhorn92 said:

What finally drove the RU out of Afghanistan?  That is what will ultimately doom their UKR efforts imo.    I dont have enough background knowledge of how that campaign ended.  From the looks of things and reading upthread about their manpower replenishment strategy, about the only way I see this ending anytime soon would be to look at Afghanistan.

They got booted out for the same reasons we and the British did: A complete and total misunderstanding of the tribal culture, and the terrain is like Switzerlandx10.

[orange dream 1227]

Wasn't it a new leader  (Gorby) recognizing that the Afghani related actions of a former leader (Brezhnev) were failing and unsustainable in wobbly Soviet Union?

and what MIA said.

Edited December 13, 2023 by orange dream

[MissingInAction 24426]

Oh yea, they just couldn't afford it any longer either. 

[jdhorn92 1534]

Thank you. Yeah that makes sense. 

[Jameslaw121 4440]

17 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Norks would eat them.

Oh, not recently. They read that they were high in cholestrol

[Schulz2.0 28652]

 

[Schulz2.0 28652]

 

 

[Schulz2.0 28652]

 

 

 

[Schulz2.0 28652]

 

[BamaATL 16253]

1 hour ago, orange dream said:

Wasn't it a new leader  (Gorby) recognizing that the Afghani related actions of a former leader (Brezhnev) were failing and unsustainable in wobbly Soviet Union?

and what MIA said.

It's a bit more complicated, as you can imagine.  Gorbachev came to power in 1985, while the withdrawal didn't take place until really 1988 into 1989 (though an initial draw down actually started in 87).  Gorbachev had long determined prior to that (and those of his mindset in the USSR) that it was an unwinnable situation.   Additionally, economic stagnation was still pretty omnipresent in the USSR, largely a hold over from the Brezhnev regime.  Gorbachev was attempting to move the USSR from Stalin/Brezhnev era communism into more of what we see in communist China economically today, his intent wasn't to break up the Soviet Union. In order to do so, he needed to be able to trade with the West, which is why he started doing things like negotiating the SALT/START missile talks.  Combine the stagnation with something like Chernobyl and Afghanistan, and you get a economic collapse. 

The ultimate problem for the Soviet Union is that Gorbachev or someone like him was likely 5 years too late.  In all honestly, if they never go into Afghanistan and if Chernobyl doesn't happen, there is a fairly decent chance that the Soviet Union still exists, at least in name.  Economically, again, he was always looking to morph into what China has become, and there was a better than decent chance of that working with all the former Soviet States.  

Once the full collapse was on, waging war wasn't feasible to keep the Soviet Union together, neither militarily, nor economically.  

[Schulz2.0 28652]

 

[atomheartbevo 89046]

Cedar Park man killed in Ukraine.  Marine vet.

https://www.kxan.com/news/local/cedar-park-man-killed-by-fighting-in-ukraine/

Quote

A Cedar Park man who traveled to Ukraine to offer humanitarian assistance has been killed in the fighting. 

The Irish Department of Foreign Affairs confirmed to Irish media that Graham Dale, 45, died last week while fighting for the Ukrainian Army, according to Irish Public Service Broadcaster RTÉ.

Quote

Dale was a Marine veteran and Irish-American citizen who lived in Cedar Park. In May 2022, Dale talked with KXAN and said his original plan was to travel to Poland to help with the wave of refugees fleeing over the border it shares with Ukraine.

However, days after quitting his job in Cedar Park, Dale found himself driving toward the battle zone in Ukraine, feeling compelled to help those in the warzone.

Quote

“This is somewhere that I’ve been to on vacation before I know people from here,” he said at the time. “To me, this is an attack on all of Europe, and I felt compelled with my current skillset and so forth that I could help in any way that I could.”

Quote

In addition to serving in Iraq with the Marines, Graham made a habit of showing up at natural disasters across the U.S. to try and help. 

In 2022, Graham told us that once he got into Ukraine, he met up with other U.S. and European military veterans to try and offer humanitarian help.

Quote

The trips ranged from orphanages to hospitals—both inside cities and out in the countryside.

“You realize that you are the boots on the ground. You are that line in the sand,” Graham said. “There is no magic government button that presses, and millions of resources make themselves available. Generally speaking, it’s civilian volunteers stepping up to the plate. (They) are the ones that help most with the people during and after these kinds of disasters and wars.”