Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[Chad Fuck 17,309]

10 minutes ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

I wonder if the low intercept rates on the anti-ship missiles and S300/400 missiles are because they were in areas without much air defense or if those are tougher to hit for some reason. I assume the anti-ship missiles are low altitude "sea skimmer" types? 

Or the Uke's are running out of AA ammo because of US foot dragging.  Which I guess is the same as your first premise.

[Schulz2.0 28,652]

 

 

 

[bolverk 29,107]

1 hour ago, Schulz2.0 said:

Looking for some insight into the significance of the first tweet because I deleted my Twitter account and can no longer see the comments.

Are they using export models because no one is buying them anymore, or are they running out of those that would normally be dedicated to their own supply? Also, what makes the export model different? Are they shittier and, therefore, more expendable for tasks such as trawling for mines instead of engaging in combat?

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11,572]

why is there still a 'leningrad' region.  they changed the names of the cities decades ago.  not the region too?

[bolverk 29,107]

10 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

 

 

 

Apologies -- full of questions this morning.

Tweet 1: I'd love to know what the driver is saying. He sounds irked. Is he pissed that they were in his way, or is he pissed that they're having to place S-300s around St. Petersburg for defense?

Tweet 2: Is there a history of having success in making public appeals like this in Russia World? We keep seeing soldiers and now civilians reading scripted entreaties for aid. Does this shit work over there?  

[bolverk 29,107]

10 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

why is there still a 'leningrad' region.  they changed the names of the cities decades ago.  not the region too?

I noticed this too a little while ago and, yes, that appears to be the case. It made me wonder if the renaming of the cities was just a symbolic gesture to an international audience back in the 1990s.

 

[Armybrat 40,559]

13 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

 

Good guys with guns & Hummers. ❤️

[Schulz2.0 28,652]

3 hours ago, bolverk said:

Are they using export models because no one is buying them anymore, or are they running out of those that would normally be dedicated to their own supply?

[MillerEP 30,277]

 

[atomheartbevo 89,059]

[InkaUtexas 24,933]

6 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

I got food poisoning on the boat restaurants on that fucking river.

[Chopper 16,700]

 

 

[The Dog 43,491]

2 hours ago, MillerEP said:

 

[956 Worldwide 34,020]

1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

Orban now on the freaking clock. In the past he’s been unwilling to be the last to ratify and get on board, but they have leaned much further ahead on Sweden and how mad they are at Sweden.  Let’s see if the parliament schedules any sessions. 

[atomheartbevo 89,059]

26 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Orban now on the freaking clock. In the past he’s been unwilling to be the last to ratify and get on board, but they have leaned much further ahead on Sweden and how mad they are at Sweden.  Let’s see if the parliament schedules any sessions. 

They are risking being sidelined by the EU, and I’m guessing there is some heavy leaning on Hungary through back channels - as of 3-4 years ago, Hungary was getting 2.5-3% of its GDP from the EU.

[texastough 1,098]

Just got my patch from one of the drone fundraisers 🤘🏽😜

[Schulz2.0 28,652]

 

 

 

[ABSR 5,275]

10 hours ago, bolverk said:

Looking for some insight into the significance of the first tweet because I deleted my Twitter account and can no longer see the comments.

Are they using export models because no one is buying them anymore, or are they running out of those that would normally be dedicated to their own supply? Also, what makes the export model different? Are they shittier and, therefore, more expendable for tasks such as trawling for mines instead of engaging in combat?

They are getting high on their own supply…because it is their only option.  That is the implication.

[Schulz2.0 28,652]

Russians are saying it was carrying 65 Ukrainian POWs that were to be exchanged. No survivors.

[956 Worldwide 34,020]

6 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

Russians are saying it was carrying 65 Ukrainian POWs that were to be exchanged. No survivors.

Extremely dubious that this plane was carrying Ukrainian POWs. 

[956 Worldwide 34,020]

19 hours ago, bolverk said:

Apologies -- full of questions this morning.

Tweet 1: I'd love to know what the driver is saying. He sounds irked. Is he pissed that they were in his way, or is he pissed that they're having to place S-300s around St. Petersburg for defense?

Tweet 2: Is there a history of having success in making public appeals like this in Russia World? We keep seeing soldiers and now civilians reading scripted entreaties for aid. Does this shit work over there?  

Tweet 1: He’s an expressing surprise and frustration at the system (S-300) (“I served on/with it) being deployed around Petersburg. “Around Peter! Well, let’s get ready boys. It’ll get worse.”

Tweet 2: Performative dissent like in Putin’s call-in show that will allow authorities to “respond” and make it l better. 

Edited January 24 by 956 Worldwide

[AUS-97HORN 11,558]

1 hour ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Extremely dubious that this plane was carrying Ukrainian POWs. 

agree, but unfortunately, it also means they just killed 65 POWs to "prove" it was carrying them.  and most likely, they died horribly.   It just depends if they were sadistic enough to light them on fire before killing them or after.

[atomheartbevo 89,059]

From CNN, about the aircraft crash, this is what the Russians are saying

Quote

Kartapolov said the “Ukrainian leadership was well aware of the impending exchange and was informed of how the prisoners would be delivered. But the IL-76 plane was shot down by three missiles, either with anti-aircraft missile systems or Patriot, or with German-made IRIS.”

But the map (the curved line in the upper right of the map below) is the crash site and that seems pretty far into Russia and near Russian lines for the Ukrainians to push a Patriot or Iris  it’s not like the Crimea area where the Ukrainians could have more room to maneuver AA units around.

[Schulz2.0 28,652]

 

 

 

[Schulz2.0 28,652]

 

 

[Parliament 14,023]

38 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

 

 

I get it.  I get it but I don’t like it.

[atomheartbevo 89,059]

On the aircraft crashing, various OSINt stuff coming out, but hard to sort what’s accurate.

• Some of the geolocation people are saying that based on where it crashed and the video, that it was taking off and heading north deeper into Russia, and not landing in the Belgorod area
• Some of the plane spotters are saying it came from Iran the day before
• Claims that Russians released a passenger list, but a bunch of the names were from prisoners released months ago
• Analysts saying Russians wouldn’t normally transport Ukrainian POWs by limited air assets that close to the border area, and instead would use rail and vehicle.  If they held them far away, they might fly them over a long distance, but they probably would have been put on trains well before then. Basically they keep the aircraft for valuable stuff and not people.

[statsman 5,355]

Yeah, it will take time to unravel. We know, as background:

-Russian aviation isn’t as safe as western. 
-Planes gets shot down by AD by accident (see 2014 777, Iran Air 655, that Korean airliner shot down by Russia). I suppose Ukraine could shoot one down by accident, too. 
-Russia Anita allowing the kind of investigation that could provide proof as to what happened. 
-Russia already blew up, last year, a building housing Ukrainian POWs, point being they don’t give a shit about them and and feel free to kill them as needed (and, of course, blaming it on Ukraine). 
-repeating above comment’s note, my first thought was “why would they be flying those dudes?”

Edited January 24 by statsman

[Chopper 16,700]

4 hours ago, Schulz2.0 said:

Russians are saying it was carrying 65 Ukrainian POWs that were to be exchanged. No survivors.

video

 

[Chopper 16,700]

1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

On the aircraft crashing, various OSINt stuff coming out, but hard to sort what’s accurate.

• Some of the geolocation people are saying that based on where it crashed and the video, that it was taking off and heading north deeper into Russia, and not landing in the Belgorod area
• Some of the plane spotters are saying it came from Iran the day before
• Claims that Russians released a passenger list, but a bunch of the names were from prisoners released months ago
• Analysts saying Russians wouldn’t normally transport Ukrainian POWs by limited air assets that close to the border area, and instead would use rail and vehicle.  If they held them far away, they might fly them over a long distance, but they probably would have been put on trains well before then. Basically they keep the aircraft for valuable stuff and not people.

The OP of the video posted these updates - so lol ruzzia

IL-76 is a heavy military freighter used by Russian forces to carry military munitions such as Shaheed drones and S300/400 rockets.

UPD 11:10 Unconfirmed data from Russian sources: -There were 63 people on board.

UPD 11:27 - Sources in AFU claim that it is a successful operation performed by the Ukrainian air defense.

They also mention that IL-76 carried S300 rockets on board. (Rockets used to shell Kharkiv regularly)

 

UPD 11:30 - Russian MoD claimed that 63 people on board were Ukrainian POWs transported for exchange.

UPD 11:40 - (Tlk news) Lately IL-76 performed flights to Belgorod on a regular basis to quickly deliver military munitions (Most likely s300 rockets to sustain regular attacks on Kharkiv)

UPD 12:15 - AFU can not yet confirm that they are related to the IL-76 crash this morning. It's advised to wait for the official information.

UPD 12:16 - The speaker of the Russian Duma suggested preparing a report with an analysis of the rockets used to hit IL-76 and making an appeal to US Congress and Bundestag so they will finally open their eyes and understand who are they financing.

UPD 12:34 - Oleksandr Kovalenko (Military analyst) No signs of scattered bodies on the field based on the recent photos of the crash site.

UPD 12:54 - In the Ukrainian coordination headquarters for dealing with prisoners of war, they stated that they are currently collecting and analyzing information about the Il-76 crash.

UPD 13:52 - Link to the longer video of a plane crash https://streamable.com/tt9b3l without a watermark in the middle.

UPD 15:10 - Margarita Simonyan (Russian media) published a list of 65 Ukrainian POWs that were on board of crushed IL-76. Some names on this list match with POWs that were exchanged earlier on January 4th (18 out of 65)

UPD 16:39 - Official statement from AFU General Staff:

*To reduce the missile threat, the Armed Forces of Ukraine not only control the airspace but also closely monitor missile launch points and the logistics of their supply, especially using military transport aviation. The increased intensity of shelling is directly linked to the growing number of military transport aircraft recently directed towards the Belgorod airfield.

Taking this into account, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will continue to take measures to destroy delivery means and control airspace to eliminate the terrorist threat, including the Belgorod-Kharkiv direction.*

[bolverk 29,107]

1 hour ago, Parliament said:

I get it.  I get it but I don’t like it.

We all know who/where the obstacles to getting more funding are. As a citizen, there are things you can do.

[Chad Fuck 17,309]

16 hours ago, texastough said:

Just got my patch from one of the drone fundraisers 🤘🏽😜

can you post the link where you donated?

[statsman 5,355]

I can see the implicit threat- “you shoot down our planes and your POWs will be killed”. Clearly, they see concern about citizens’ lives as a weakness. Such a monstrous culture 

[Schulz2.0 28,652]

 

 

 

[Schulz2.0 28,652]

1 hour ago, Parliament said:

I get it.  I get it but I don’t like it.

If it makes you feel any better, our lack of military aid to Ukraine has been a major boon for Russia. They've made gains in the south, the outskirts of Bahkmut, and around Avdiivka.

 

 

[texastough 1,098]

3 minutes ago, Chad Fuck said:

can you post the link where you donated?

It was a fundraiser through WarTranslated, that one is closed but whenever they finish one it doesn't take long to start another one. I don't see one right now, but here's one from another dude that is legit:

I've also donated to https://www.libertyukraine.org/

But you won't get a NAFO patch with either of those. It looks like the NAFO website has other fundraisers and I imagine you can get some swag donating there: https://nafo-ofan.org/

[AUS-97HORN 11,558]

44 minutes ago, Chopper said:

video

 

 

 

for a plane that was supposedly shot down.... there is suspiciously little smoke (i.e. none visible ) trailing behind that plane before it completely nose dives.

 

I guess in theory an ainti-air missile could have destroyed the hydrolics only, or maybe the tail was damaged from it.... but both of those kinds of hits SHOULD still have some visible trailing liquid  and it honestly looks clear.  

 

rewatching it at the 2 second mark (its almost completely blocked by the watermark) it LOOKS like something fell off the plane... you can see it in the visible gap between the trucks cab and load... but its for a tiny millisecond you can see it

[MillerEP 30,277]

Yeah, there is close to zero chance there were any POWs on that plane, for a multitude of reasons. It's just Russians trying to spin a negative into a positive like they always try and do.

 

[MillerEP 30,277]

^Soon?

 

[MillerEP 30,277]

 

[Chopper 16,700]

3 hours ago, AUS-97HORN said:

 

 

for a plane that was supposedly shot down.... there is suspiciously little smoke (i.e. none visible ) trailing behind that plane before it completely nose dives.

 

I guess in theory an ainti-air missile could have destroyed the hydrolics only, or maybe the tail was damaged from it.... but both of those kinds of hits SHOULD still have some visible trailing liquid  and it honestly looks clear.  

 

rewatching it at the 2 second mark (its almost completely blocked by the watermark) it LOOKS like something fell off the plane... you can see it in the visible gap between the trucks cab and load... but its for a tiny millisecond you can see it

this youtube video has a clear photo of the wreckage. The plane is in a heap and riddled with shrapnel holes. It geolocates the person who shot the original video and shows a longer version of it, as well. It show the plane was actually already NE of Belgorod and heading further into ruzzia.  It backs it up with flightradar data that shows the plane came from Iran, stopped in Belgorod, and then was headed (likely) to Moscow. OTOH he casts doubt on Ukraine's claim that there were S-300 missiles on board at the time it went down. He also shows a Patriot missile could've been used to hit the plane.

video below

Spoiler

 

Edited January 24 by Chopper

[atomheartbevo 89,059]

4 hours ago, Chopper said:

UPD 15:10 - Margarita Simonyan (Russian media) published a list of 65 Ukrainian POWs that were on board of crushed IL-76. Some names on this list match with POWs that were exchanged earlier on January 4th (18 out of 65)*

 

Simonyan is head of RT and speaks directly to Putin.  Based on the flight radar and geolocation info alone, it was bring Iranian stuff to Belgorod and a SAM caught it leaving for somewhere in Russia, but the fact that one of the top Russian state media heads quickly put out a list of false information kind of seals the deal.

Ukrainians have moved some PATRIOTs into position close to the front lines, fired and then quickly moving them out of the area, catching Russians off guard, and the Ukrainians knew exactly what aircraft they were specifically targeting when they do this (such as the recent AWACS shootdown).

Edited January 24 by atomheartbevo

[Schulz2.0 28,652]

Lithuania looking to buy Leopard 2s.

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/lithuania-seeks-buy-leopard-2-tanks-germany-2024-01-23/

[956 Worldwide 34,020]

I am less doubtful about the chance of POWs being on that airplane than I was this morning.  This is based on some of Ukraine’s careful statements and calls for investigations.  It’s not based off of anything Russia has done. 
 

I am not convinced that it happened, either, and if it did then Russia almost certainly bears full blame for not communicating details of the exchange and for continually using Belograd and its facilities as a staging ground for its invasion of Ukraine. 

[atomheartbevo 89,059]

1 hour ago, 956 Worldwide said:

I am less doubtful about the chance of POWs being on that airplane than I was this morning.  This is based on some of Ukraine’s careful statements and calls for investigations.  It’s not based off of anything Russia has done

The lack of bodies and the fact that the top Russian state media personality published a list of names that included 18 Ukrainians who are alive and were exchanged two weeks ago tells me everything.  The fact that it’s heavy transport and was in Iran the day before is the icing on the cake. 

[956 Worldwide 34,020]

Ukrainian military intelligence on the Il-76 from last night.

Quote

There was supposed to be an exchange of prisoners today, but it didn't happen. According to the Russian side, this happened as a result of the downing of the Russian Il-76 plane, which was supposedly transporting Ukrainian prisoners. Currently, Ukraine does not have reliable and comprehensive information about who exactly was on board the plane and in what number. For its part, Ukraine has fulfilled all agreements for the proper preparation of the exchange. The Russian captured servicemen were delivered on time to the designated place for exchange, where they were kept safe.

According to the agreements, the Russian side had to ensure the safety of our defenders. At the same time, the Ukrainian side was not informed about the need to ensure the safety of the airspace in the area of the city of Belgorod in a certain period of time, as was repeatedly done in the past. Ukraine was not informed about the number of vehicles, routes and forms of delivery of prisoners. It is known that prisoners are delivered by air, rail and road transport. This may indicate deliberate actions by Russia aimed at creating a threat to the life and safety of prisoners.

Landing a transport aircraft in a 30-kilometer war zone cannot be safe and should in any case be discussed by both sides, because otherwise it puts the entire exchange process at risk. Based on this, we may be talking about planned and deliberate actions of the Russian Federation with the aim of destabilizing the situation in Ukraine and weakening international support for our state.

 

[956 Worldwide 34,020]

Zelenskyy also canceled planned trips to regions and prohibited any public celebrations of his birthday (today) until the Il-76 crash gets clarified. 
 

Again, Ukraine’s posture and comms on this have shifted. I’m not making a call either way, and if it does turn out that the plane had POWs on it, this will be a tragedy for which Russia is to blame on all levels.

https://www.rbc.ua/rus/news/zelenskiy-z-yasuvannya-obstavin-padinnya-1706127678.html 

[InkaUtexas 24,933]

Watching how the dialogue has changed from the UA's side is off. I think we will never know what really happened.

[Schulz2.0 28,652]

Oil facility on the Black Sea in Russia hit by drones.

 

[atomheartbevo 89,059]

7 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

Oil facility on the Black Sea in Russia hit by drones.

So they are trying to shut down Russian oil exports….or are they trying to force Russia to really spread out their air defenses and have to move some. Air defense out of forward/Ukraine…....whynotboth.gif