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14 hours ago, Armybrat said:

Russian national - who is a legal permanent resident of the US - arrested in Austin for money laundering. 
 

https://www.kxan.com/investigations/russian-national-with-ties-to-vladimir-putin-arrested-in-austin/

Fuck him. Let him die in prison. I’m done with Russians getting any air to breathe, especially stateside 

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19 hours ago, bolverk said:

I really wish we could've somehow preserved the "What's happening in Ukraine" thread from 10 years ago when this all started. 

@blacklab Is that all gone forever? There was so much great stuff in that thread.

23ukraine-10-year-Dispatch-01-vthl-super

For Many Ukrainians, It’s Been a 10-Year War, Not a 2-Year One

They were a ragtag army, fighting with baseball bats, Molotov cocktails and plywood shields. But for Ukrainians, the protesters who faced off with riot police on Kyiv’s main square a decade ago were the first soldiers in a war still raging today.

The demonstrators were part of the Maidan uprising of 2014, when Ukrainians took to the streets to protest the decision by President Viktor F. Yanukovych to forgo closer ties to Europe and instead more closely align Ukraine with Moscow. In the uprising’s violent, final days police killed more than 100 protesters.

Their portraits now adorn a wall of honor at St. Michael’s Golden-Domed Monastery in Kyiv. They are displayed first, ahead of portraits of soldiers killed in the simmering, eight-year conflict in Ukraine’s east that served as a prelude to Russia’s full-scale invasion on Feb. 24, 2022. And a museum dedicated to the street uprising identifies those who died on the square as the first soldiers killed in the war with Russia.

This connection Ukrainians make between the 2014 rebellion and the invasion two years ago reflects the long view of war that many citizens hold: They’ve been fighting Russia for 10 years, not two.

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Portraits of people killed in the Maidan uprising are displayed inside St. Michael’s Golden-Domed Monastery in Kyiv.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine came in two phases, Ukrainians point out. The first was a decade ago when Russian soldiers came over the border soon after Mr. Yanukovych was driven into exile, igniting the war in the east. It was a military intervention unacknowledged by Moscow, shrouded in a fog of ruses and denials so improbable that few were deceived. But it nonetheless served to blunt both the Ukrainian and international response.

The war pivoted two years ago to an unveiled effort by Russia to seize territory militarily and redraw European borders. This week, as the world observes the second anniversary of Russia’s invasion, Ukrainians recall the anger and resolve that drove the 2014 uprising as well.

“We have always been fighting Russia,” said Capt. Oleh Voitsekhovsky, who joined the army directly after protesting on Maidan Square, fought in the war in the east and is still fighting today. His view of Ukrainian history, he said, is of a continual struggle against Moscow. “It is just sometimes cold and sometimes hot.”

In its final days, the 2014 uprising nearly collapsed as protesters held only a few hundred square yards of soot-smeared paving stones and had resorted to burning heaps of tires to keep alight a giant bonfire that was holding back riot police.

Police snipers fired into the crowds, leaving bodies scattered on the pavement in central Kyiv. The protest ended with security service chiefs and protest leaders cutting a deal, and with the police pulling back and leaving the capital. This betrayal left Mr. Yanukovych without protection, and he fled to eastern Ukraine, and then to Russia on Feb. 24, 2014.

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During the Maidan uprising, police snipers fired into the crowds, leaving bodies scattered on the pavement in central Kyiv.

In a video address to the nation on Tuesday in observance of the 10th anniversary of the sniper shootings, President Volodymyr Zelensky drew a line from the Maidan uprising to the trench warfare today. Ukrainians will fight, he said, “in the squares, on the barricades and today at the front.”

After driving out Mr. Yanukovych, many protesters believed they had secured Ukraine’s freedom. In fact, the war had just begun.

Russia’s response to Maidan became a simple but effective trick: It deployed soldiers in uniforms without insignia in the Crimea Peninsula and identified them as angry locals or members of motorcycle gangs. The ruse was transparent, but it succeeded in slowing the Western response amid discussions of the origins of the ostensible mystery soldiers.

Ukraine, still wobbly under an interim president appointed by Parliament, initially sought to avoid a war.

Capt. Yuriy Fedash of the Ukrainian navy was trying to rebuff Russian efforts to board and seize his ship in March 2014 when he received an order from Kyiv emblematic of Ukraine’s cautious, first response: “‘Don’t give up but don’t shoot,’” Captain Fedash said he was told.

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Russia deployed soldiers in unmarked uniforms in the Crimea Peninsula and identified them as angry locals or members of motorcycle gangs, helping to slow a Western response.

Seeing no way to resist without fighting, Captain Fedash disobeyed, he said in an interview: He ordered sailors to fire warning shots from a heavy machine gun, sending up sprays of seawater. They were among the first shots fired by Ukraine’s military in the war but did not prevent the eventual seizure of the ship.

By the time Russian tanks rolled across the border two years ago, roughly 400,000 Ukrainians had already fought the Russians in eastern Ukraine. By sustaining years of low-intensity war in the east, Russia, paradoxically, had prepared the Ukrainian army to rebuff a countrywide assault. Many veterans, battle-hardened after years in the trenches, rejoined the army.

“This was decisive,” said Captain Voitsekhovsky, referring to the way veterans of the war in the east took up arms against the full-scale Russian invasion. “First, we were motivated. This was a big, unpleasant surprise for the Russians. And we had combat experience. Nothing had to be explained. We took weapons and needed no help.”

The Maidan uprising echoed in Russia’s war plans, too.

In the invasion, Russia sought to quickly capture the capital with columns of tanks, paratroopers and commandos, with the goal of setting up a puppet government. One plan identified by Ukrainian officials would have reinstalled Mr. Yanukovych.

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President Viktor F. Yanukovych’s compound outside Kyiv. After the Maidan uprising, Mr. Yanukovych fled to eastern Ukraine, and then to Russia on Feb. 24, 2014.

In the weeks before the invasion, lawyers who later fled to Russia filed little-noticed lawsuits in a Kyiv court contesting a Parliamentary vote in 2014 that stripped Mr. Yanukovych of his presidential powers.

The legal filings would have lain the groundwork for his return. Agents with Ukraine’s domestic intelligence agency, the S.B.U., confiscated the court’s computer servers, lest corrupt or treasonous judges publish a ruling legitimizing Mr. Yanukovych’s return.

Over the years, Russia’s denials of any direct military role in Ukraine in 2014 infuriated Ukrainians, and has amplified their view of a long war against Russia.

France and Germany had conceded, in settlement talks, to a role for Russian proxy forces in negotiations known as the Minsk II process. It was, in essence, a partial acceptance of the Russian denial of having invaded two eastern provinces in 2014; that acceptance delayed for years a full grappling with the implications of Russia’s turn to military expansionism.

“I wanted somebody to pay attention to this lawlessness,” Captain Fedash, the navy skipper, said of Russia’s unacknowledged intervention. “We let time go by. They were not punished, so they continued.”

Ukraine is now on the defensive along the entire 600-mile front, is fighting with dwindling ammunition and faces deep uncertainty over the future of military and financial aid from its most important ally, the United States. Ukrainians have fought against long odds before.

Sviatoslav Syry, who was beaten by riot police officers as a student protester on the square, was elected to a seat in Parliament and is now fighting in an artillery unit in the Ukrainian military.

Maidan protesters, he told Ukrainian media, were dismayed as riot police repeatedly stormed the tent encampment on the square in nighttime raids. “By morning, you think maybe it’s all over,” he said. “But inside, there’s already this anger and desire to come back.”

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A memorial set up in the aftermath of the uprising in 2014. Russia’s denials of any direct military role in Ukraine in 2014 has infuriated Ukrainians and amplified their view of a long war against Russia.

The photos from the Yanukovych estate were astounding. (One can only imagine what Putin’s residence must look like.) The Ukrainians who ousted Putin’s puppet Yanukovych, to their credit, were careful to preserve and document everything rather than ransack the place.

The main residence:
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The car collection:

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He had a golf course and a zoo. He even had a pond with a wooden ship:

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Yanukovuch was the epitome of corruption, fleecing the Ukrainian people to enrich himself in the service of Vladimir Putin. That’s what Putin means when he talks about Ukrainian “corruption.” He means they’re no longer serving him as a corrupt vassal state. So he accuses them of the crime for which he’s guilty. (Classic ploy employed by dictators.) That’s not to say there’s no corruption in Ukraine anymore. There’s a certain amount of corruption in every human endeavor where more than (in my own thoroughly unscientific speculation) a dozen people are involved. But there are vestiges of the corrupt enterprise that was the Yanukovych era that remain and are still being cleaned up. The process is ongoing and I believe they’re making progress in the right direction. I hope so, anyway.

https://www.usatoday.com/picture-gallery/news/world/2019/10/10/former-ukrainian-presidents-estate-now-museum-corruption/3930071002/

https://www.businessinsider.com/homes-of-ukrainian-government-officials-2014-2

 

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17 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

In addition to the A-50, also reports of another downed Su-34 near Kherson.  And again—crew loss is just as harmful as the aircraft if not more so. Even qualified and experienced RU aviators get a lot less seat time than US and high-capacity NATO counterparts.
 

 

Is this real? Looks like some kind of Frank Frazetta creation. Just needs a 8 foot battle ax.

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5 minutes ago, Steel Shank said:

Is this real? Looks like some kind of Frank Frazetta creation. Just needs a 8 foot battle ax.

I have to confess my weird fondness for the Fullback.  Some true Russian weirdness, like someone tried to cross an A-10 with an F-15 and breed in some F-111.  Side by side armored cockpit, you can stand up in it and it has a little hot plate. It’s also friggin huge. 
 

image.thumb.jpeg.b69678bfba1f69bdeff1944f72001e5e.jpeg

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11 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

Thats a great link. Here is a WSJ story on how Russia has managed economically. They will struggle long term, as your link explains. 
 
How Russia re-engineered its trade with the world to dodge Western sanctions, in seven charts
https://www.wsj.com/world/russia/how-russia-dodged-sanctions-in-seven-charts-afb88486?st=gc9fsfpjmqb1rcy&reflink=share_mobilewebshare

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22 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

I have to confess my weird fondness for the Fullback.  Some true Russian weirdness, like someone tried to cross an A-10 with an F-15 and breed in some F-111.  Side by side armored cockpit, you can stand up in it and it has a little hot plate. It’s also friggin huge. 
 

image.thumb.jpeg.b69678bfba1f69bdeff1944f72001e5e.jpeg

There must be a rear looking radar in that bizarre tail? 

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52 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

I have to confess my weird fondness for the Fullback.  Some true Russian weirdness, like someone tried to cross an A-10 with an F-15 and breed in some F-111.  Side by side armored cockpit, you can stand up in it and it has a little hot plate. It’s also friggin huge. 
 

image.thumb.jpeg.b69678bfba1f69bdeff1944f72001e5e.jpeg

This reminds me of how much bigger jetfire was than starscream.  I dig this plane, man. 

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3 hours ago, statsman said:

ere is a WSJ story on how Russia has managed economically. They will struggle long term, as your link explains. 

And China will help keep them down.  You’d think that the Russian people would be upset that Putin is putting them under Xi’s thumb, but they probably don’t realize it.

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1 hour ago, B00M said:

Combat veteran reporting that the Ukrainians tricked Russians into shooting down their own A-50. It flies a repeating, predictable figure 8, so Ukrainians fired a surface to air missile near its path, mimicking an air to air missile, triggering the A-50 to release its heat traps. Russian SAMs, believing there’s an adversary in the air, fire, but the only available target is the A-50. This is apparently the “Israeli Maneuver” because Israel did it to an Il-20 in 2018. Russia deserves a lot of credit for failing to evolve and in fact, shooting down their own critical aircraft, again. 


The Rope a Dope !

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2 hours ago, B00M said:

Combat veteran reporting that the Ukrainians tricked Russians into shooting down their own A-50. It flies a repeating, predictable figure 8, so Ukrainians fired a surface to air missile near its path, mimicking an air to air missile, triggering the A-50 to release its heat traps. Russian SAMs, believing there’s an adversary in the air, fire, but the only available target is the A-50. This is apparently the “Israeli Maneuver” because Israel did it to an Il-20 in 2018. Russia deserves a lot of credit for failing to evolve and in fact, shooting down their own critical aircraft, again. 

Let me get this straight, Mr. Ambassador.  You've lost another one of your A-50's?  /candydishsound

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CFR panel discussion they sent around by email was depressing as hell. Basically Putin is sitting pretty, Ukraine fucked, territorial compromise likely the only way out and Ukraine is still subject to the pressure of Putin whose goal is likely now to create a failed state in order to prop up and ally as opposed to outright conquer. And that absent continued military support not only is restoring territorial integrity impossible, preserving the rest of Ukraine may be too.

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9 hours ago, troph said:

CFR panel discussion they sent around by email was depressing as hell. Basically Putin is sitting pretty, Ukraine fucked, territorial compromise likely the only way out and Ukraine is still subject to the pressure of Putin whose goal is likely now to create a failed state in order to prop up and ally as opposed to outright conquer. And that absent continued military support not only is restoring territorial integrity impossible, preserving the rest of Ukraine may be too.

CFR is stacked full of people who have spent their lives arguing for a more “realistic” approach to Russia and shitting on CEE integration. 
 

They are right, though, that this gets bad if no more U.S. support comes.  It’s just that they really want that to happen and get proven right. 

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18 hours ago, B00M said:

Combat veteran reporting that the Ukrainians tricked Russians into shooting down their own A-50. It flies a repeating, predictable figure 8, so Ukrainians fired a surface to air missile near its path, mimicking an air to air missile, triggering the A-50 to release its heat traps. Russian SAMs, believing there’s an adversary in the air, fire, but the only available target is the A-50. This is apparently the “Israeli Maneuver” because Israel did it to an Il-20 in 2018. Russia deserves a lot of credit for failing to evolve and in fact, shooting down their own critical aircraft, again. 

There are going to be a plenty of different stories pumped out as to how that aircraft was lost.  And given the way information is controlled and disseminated within the Russian military, it’s very likely that future aircrews and mission planners will never know for sure themselves. They’ll try other ways of managing risk than just telling the crews “watch out for this.”
 

 Russians will err on the side of internal control even at the expense of operational effectiveness. 

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1 hour ago, 956 Worldwide said:

CFR is stacked full of people who have spent their lives arguing for a more “realistic” approach to Russia and shitting on CEE integration. 
 

They are right, though, that this gets bad if no more U.S. support comes.  It’s just that they really want that to happen and get proven right. 

They also showed the EU was more generous measured in total benefit but the US gave more military aid. 
 

the US military expert kinda scoffed at possible Baltic invasion the European expert went straight at it and said “you’re nuts if you think that’s not a real possibility”, it was an interesting dynamic. 

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Yeah. The problem is- the EU does have a lot of military weapons/munitions aid to give. They’re willing, but their militaries are horribly hollowed out after decades of prioritizing butter over guns. 
 
Now, the bear is roaring again, and they’d really like to give Ukraine what it needs to fend him off- which is artillery shells and lots of them. They just don’t have them. 
 
The U.S. has more to offer, but one party is holding stuff up. 

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26 minutes ago, troph said:

They also showed the EU was more generous measured in total benefit but the US gave more military aid. 
 

the US military expert kinda scoffed at possible Baltic invasion the European expert went straight at it and said “you’re nuts if you think that’s not a real possibility”, it was an interesting dynamic. 

We are already seeing a ramp up of hybrid activities in the Baltics.  I compare the Kremlin playbook to Leach’s Air Raid.  There are only a few actual plays and concepts they use, out of a huge mix of formations and camouflage. 
 

In the Baltics, I think a lot about a modified Donbas play.  Suddenly a bunch of Russian speakers near a border  mysteriously begin whining about rights. Russia reinforces their border. Soon unmarked equipment and unacknowledged advisors turn up across the border, autonomy is declared.  Russia declares its interest but not involvement in this “internal crisis.” 

In 2014 most of the world was prepared to abide by this fiction to avoid admitting that Russia invaded Ukraine.  We see in our own discourse that the ground is being prepared in the information space for the largest NATO Ally to take a skeptical stance towards Article 5 and to look for ways to discuss responsibility. 
 

A lot of CFR folks would advocate for us to sit out that scenario. 

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