Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[Braff Zacklin 13299]

13 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

You know that Ford Ranger put up a hell of a fight !!!!

Yeah, that's no ordinary Ranger. Looked like the Commando LTD trim, Ford's belated answer to the Chevy Silverado "RV from Hell" edition as featured in Tango & Cash.

[troph 24068]

38 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

We are already seeing a ramp up of hybrid activities in the Baltics.  I compare the Kremlin playbook to Leach’s Air Raid.  There are only a few actual plays and concepts they use, out of a huge mix of formations and camouflage. 
 

In the Baltics, I think a lot about a modified Donbas play.  Suddenly a bunch of Russian speakers near a border  mysteriously begin whining about rights. Russia reinforces their border. Soon unmarked equipment and unacknowledged advisors turn up across the border, autonomy is declared.  Russia declares its interest but not involvement in this “internal crisis.” 

In 2014 most of the world was prepared to abide by this fiction to avoid admitting that Russia invaded Ukraine.  We see in our own discourse that the ground is being prepared in the information space for the largest NATO Ally to take a skeptical stance towards Article 5 and to look for ways to discuss responsibility. 
 

A lot of CFR folks would advocate for us to sit out that scenario. 

Scary as fuck.

[956 Worldwide 34031]

1 hour ago, statsman said:

Yeah. The problem is- the EU does have a lot of military weapons/munitions aid to give. They’re willing, but their militaries are horribly hollowed out after decades of prioritizing butter over guns. 
 
Now, the bear is roaring again, and they’d really like to give Ukraine what it needs to fend him off- which is artillery shells and lots of them. They just don’t have them. 
 
The U.S. has more to offer, but one party is holding stuff up. 

The combined West is close to a billion people, maybe a bit more to include Japan, ROK, and Australia.  It’s the wealthiest places in the world. It’s embarrassing to be in this situation. 
 

Democracy has to be armed better than tyranny. We’ve had a generation of leaders who don’t get that. 

[Bevo 13442]

48 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

The combined West is close to a billion people, maybe a bit more to include Japan, ROK, and Australia.  It’s the wealthiest places in the world. It’s embarrassing to be in this situation. 
 

Democracy has to be armed better than tyranny. We’ve had a generation of leaders who don’t get that. 

Are you including central and south america?

[956 Worldwide 34031]

Just now, Bevo said:

Are you including central and south america?

I hope so, eventually.  For them it’s a question of capacity and democratic consolidation.  It’s for a separate thread but I have strong thoughts about what I see as US neglect to Latin America and the costs we pay for not being able to count on that region as a real strategic partner. 

[KYHorn 16738]

Zelenskyy had provided a count for the number of Ukrainian soldiers killed: 31k. For context, the US estimates it's 70k.

https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-troops-killed-zelenskyy-675f53437aaf56a4d990736e85af57c4 

Edited February 25 by KYHorn

[KYHorn 16738]

 

Edited February 25 by KYHorn

[tx 3 putt 75636]

[Schulz2.0 28657]

14 hours ago, troph said:

CFR panel discussion they sent around by email was depressing as hell. Basically Putin is sitting pretty, Ukraine fucked, territorial compromise likely the only way out and Ukraine is still subject to the pressure of Putin whose goal is likely now to create a failed state in order to prop up and ally as opposed to outright conquer. And that absent continued military support not only is restoring territorial integrity impossible, preserving the rest of Ukraine may be too.

https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-losses-avdiivka-exceed-10-year-soviet-afghan-war-isw-2024-2

[Bevo 13442]

2 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

I hope so, eventually.  For them it’s a question of capacity and democratic consolidation.  It’s for a separate thread but I have strong thoughts about what I see as US neglect to Latin America and the costs we pay for not being able to count on that region as a real strategic partner. 

The reason I ask is that the population of Europe is 600M and the US is 300M. But a lot of Europe's 600M is composed of countries such as Turkey, France, Serbia, Albania, and Hungary which probably provide limited help compared to Germany, the UK, the former Eastern Europe, and northern Europe. Turkey plays both sides pretty well as they act tough against Russia but help Russia significantly by skirting sanctions.

 

As for the US, as much as Congress has done to screw up the war effort, the administration has been taking it easy on Russian oil sales which is pretty much the majority of Russia's economy.

 

Exclusive: Turkish-Russian trade hit by fresh US sanctions threat

By Can Sezer, Nevzat Devranoglu and Dmitry Zhdannikov

February 19, 20246:31 AM CST

Updated 6 days ago

https://www.reuters.com/markets/turkish-russian-trade-hit-by-fresh-us-sanctions-threat-2024-02-19/

•            Summary

•            December executive order complicated payments in both directions

•            Turkish banks reviewing business, tightening compliance

•            Crude supplies not disrupted, few cargoes delayed, sources say

•            U.S. official says encouraged by reports of tightened compliance

ISTANBUL, Feb 19 (Reuters) - A U.S. threat to hit financial firms doing business with Russia with sanctions has chilled Turkish-Russian trade, disrupting or slowing some payments for both imported oil and Turkish exports, according to seven sources familiar with the matter.

The U.S. executive order in December did not explicitly target energy but it has complicated some Turkish payments for Russian crude as well as Russian payments for a broader range of Turkish exports, the sources said.

U.S. sanctions aim to reduce the Kremlin's revenue and disrupt its war in Ukraine without choking Russian oil flows to global markets, to avoid a politically sensitive jump in U.S. gasoline prices with President Joe Biden seeking re-election in November.

However, similar payment problems to those now faced by Turkey have already disrupted Russian oil supplies to India and complicated those to the United Arab Emirates and China, according to oil traders.

Russia is the top crude and diesel exporter to energy-poor NATO member Turkey, supplying 8.9 million metric tons of crude and 9.4 million tons of diesel to its Black Sea neighbour in the 11 months to November.

The emerging payment issues are due to Turkish banks reviewing business and tightening compliance with Russian clients, four of the sources said. They have not disrupted Turkey's crude supplies, delaying only a small number of cargoes, two oil industry sources said.

A source with a Russian oil major said Russian oil exporters have not received payments from Turkey for two to three weeks.

"It has become difficult to make some energy payments to Russia, especially after the new sanctions (threat) at the end of December. Some payments were disrupted," a Turkish source familiar with the payments issue said.

"The originally agreed upon method had to be changed or the payment had to be postponed, but the shipment continued. There may be problems on a cargo-by-cargo basis," the source said.

The industrial and financial sector sources discussed the payment and trade disruption under condition of anonymity given they are not authorised to speak about the sensitive matter.

"Payment issues began after December. The focus is not on oil imports, but it is unsettling. It has not impacted day-to-day functioning but reminds us that a problem could arise any time," a Turkish oil industry source said.

The Turkish Treasury declined to comment when asked about the issue. Turkey's banking watchdog BDDK did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Ankara opposes Western sanctions on Moscow even as it has criticised Russia's invasion of Ukraine two years ago. It has managed to maintain close ties with both Moscow and Kyiv throughout the conflict.

Though Ankara has said the sanctions will not be circumvented on Turkish soil, Washington ramped up pressure last year to halt the transit of dual-use goods that Russia could use on the battlefield, and has warned that Turkish banks and companies could be hit by secondary U.S. sanctions.

"EXTREMELY METICULOUS"

The disruption to Russian-Turkish payments began when Biden signed the executive order on Dec. 22 threatening firms helping Russia circumvent sanctions with the risk of losing assess to the U.S. financial system.

Financial institutions doing business on behalf of those targeted by U.S. sanctions are at risk, the order said.

On Feb. 1, the Kremlin said it was aware of Turkish banks tightening rules on Russian clients due to "aggressive" U.S. pressure, and that it was working with Turkey to find solutions.

Russian Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina said on Friday that there were additional difficulties in foreign trade transactions related to settlements and logistics.

One Turkish banker said banks carry out "extremely meticulous" procedures regarding sanctions, with compliance departments closely examining all transactions.

"This issue is very sensitive and banks' compliance departments are on top of it," another banker said.

A senior U.S. State Department official told Reuters it was encouraged by reports that Turkish banks are reviewing existing business and tightening their compliance programmes for Russian clients.

"The President's Dec. 22 amendment to our Russia sanctions authority re-affirmed what we've said previously: that foreign financial institutions are responsible for ensuring they do not process transactions that benefit Russia's military or otherwise enable circumvention of our measures."

"We have had extensive discussions with our Turkish partners over the last year. We will analyse January trade data once available and look forward to continuing those conversations," the official said.

Initial data showed Turkish exports to Russia fell 39% year-on-year to $631 million in January, having increased 16.9% last year to $10.9 billion. Imports from Russia fell 20.2% in January to $4 billion, having dropped 22.5% in 2023 to $45.6 billion.

Crude imports from Russia jumped more than two fold to 12 million tons in 2022. It supplied 8.9 million tons of oil to Turkey in Jan-Nov 2023, down 20% from the year before but still above the pre-war average.

But much of the impact was on non-oil trade, sources said.

"Exports of machinery, in particular, stopped simply because of the similarity with military equipment," the first source familiar with the issue said.

"The real problem arises not with the payment that Turkey should make, but with the payment that Turkey will receive. This shows the high level of hesitation Turkish banks have towards sanctions," the source said.

Reporting by Can Sezer, Nevzat Devranoglu, Ebru Tuncay, Dmitry Zhdannikov, Jonathan Spicer, Daphne Psaledakis Writing by Jonathan Spicer and Daren Butler; Editing by Kirsten Donovan

 

 

 

Edited February 25 by Bevo

[956 Worldwide 34031]

 

[troph 24068]

2 hours ago, Schulz2.0 said:

https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-losses-avdiivka-exceed-10-year-soviet-afghan-war-isw-2024-2

Ukraine did not really move Russia off entrenched positions during the counteroffensive. That points to an extremely prolonged war if the goal is restoring territorial integrity, and Russia can retool and attack infrastructure beyond the front lines hoping to topple the Ukraine government through other means, not an invasion. I don’t think Putin is stopping if he hasn’t already.  

Edited February 25 by troph

[956 Worldwide 34031]

11 minutes ago, troph said:

Ukraine did not really move Russia off entrenched positions during the counteroffensive. That points to an extremely prolonged war if the goal is restoring territorial integrity, and Russia can retool and attack infrastructure beyond the front lines hoping to topple the Ukraine government through other means, not an invasion. I don’t think Putin is stopping if he hasn’t already.  

We talk a lot about shaping the battlefield and Russia has and continues to successfully do so at the theatre level. Russia’s ability to set entrenched positions and defend them is a result of their shaping of the battlefield stretching back to before 2014.

[Schulz2.0 28657]

48 minutes ago, troph said:

Ukraine did not really move Russia off entrenched positions during the counteroffensive. That points to an extremely prolonged war if the goal is restoring territorial integrity, and Russia can retool and attack infrastructure beyond the front lines hoping to topple the Ukraine government through other means, not an invasion. I don’t think Putin is stopping if he hasn’t already.  

The biggest issue to Ukraine holding territory is artillery ammo.

In terms of the counter offensive, we never set Ukraine up to do a combined arms offensive the way any western nation would. We didn't deliver enough tanks and AFVs and no air superiority. We also took so long delivering the equipment that the Russians had ample time to build extensive defenses. 

[Schulz2.0 28657]

Ukrainians are making their own versions of Humvees, M113s, and MaxxPros.

https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-sending-dupes-of-american-carriers-into-battle-against-russia-2024-2?amp

Edited February 25 by Schulz2.0

[Schulz2.0 28657]

The French are discussing sending Mirage aircraft to Ukraine.

[statsman 5356]

Mirages? Haven’t the Ukrainians suffered enough?

[atomheartbevo 89108]

3 hours ago, Bevo said:

Turkey plays both sides pretty well as they act tough against Russia but help Russia significantly by skirting sanctions.

Interesting thing is that Turkey helped keep Ukraine in the fight early on with their drones/UAVs.  They were, for all intents and purposes, Ukraine’s long-range aerial capability. 

[UpperWestside 6034]

21 hours ago, troph said:

CFR panel discussion they sent around by email was depressing as hell. Basically Putin is sitting pretty, Ukraine fucked, territorial compromise likely the only way out and Ukraine is still subject to the pressure of Putin whose goal is likely now to create a failed state in order to prop up and ally as opposed to outright conquer. And that absent continued military support not only is restoring territorial integrity impossible, preserving the rest of Ukraine may be too.

Ukraine will continue to be supplied by us and other NATO countries. What would be of zero shock to me is that eventually we do not just have the CIA and Special OPS being the only US presence there. I think war is a terrible thing, but we’ve crossed a bridge in this situation to where we are not going to let Ukraine fall. 

[PhillyD 1246]

4 minutes ago, UpperWestside said:

 I think war is a terrible thing, but we’ve crossed a bridge in this situation to where we are not going to let Ukraine fall. 

Perhaps you're right.  But it seems to me we've decided to make them suffer in painful manner as opposed to stepping on Putin's throat.

[Bevo 13442]

14 minutes ago, PhillyD said:

Perhaps you're right.  But it seems to me we've decided to make them suffer in painful manner as opposed to stepping on Putin's throat.

It's true and we are one of many countries involved in the slow roll. There are many more backslaps and photoshoots than supplied weapons and implemented Russian sanctions.

[Parliament 14032]

3 hours ago, Schulz2.0 said:

Ukrainians are making their own versions of Humvees, M113s, and MaxxPros.

https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-sending-dupes-of-american-carriers-into-battle-against-russia-2024-2?amp

There aren't used Humvee's we can give them?  

[atomheartbevo 89108]

https://news.yahoo.com/putin-deliver-state-union-address-110214267.html
 

Quote

Russian President Vladimir Putin will deliver his state of the nation address on February 29, two weeks before the presidential election in which he is seeking another six-year term.

Putin will address the Federal Assembly about his goals for the coming year, the Kremlin said on Tuesday.

Quote

The war in Ukraine is expected to loom large in the speech that will be broadcast on state television. February 29 is just five days after the two-year anniversary of Putin's all-out invasion.

If he was going to start shit in Moldova as some are claiming, this would be the time to announce it.

[dimyh 1873]

12 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

We are already seeing a ramp up of hybrid activities in the Baltics.  I compare the Kremlin playbook to Leach’s Air Raid.  There are only a few actual plays and concepts they use, out of a huge mix of formations and camouflage. 
 

In the Baltics, I think a lot about a modified Donbas play.  Suddenly a bunch of Russian speakers near a border  mysteriously begin whining about rights. Russia reinforces their border. Soon unmarked equipment and unacknowledged advisors turn up across the border, autonomy is declared.  Russia declares its interest but not involvement in this “internal crisis.” 

In 2014 most of the world was prepared to abide by this fiction to avoid admitting that Russia invaded Ukraine.  We see in our own discourse that the ground is being prepared in the information space for the largest NATO Ally to take a skeptical stance towards Article 5 and to look for ways to discuss responsibility. 
 

A lot of CFR folks would advocate for us to sit out that scenario. 

I thought last year that the Russian military losses were so severe that they would be 4-5 years before they could attempt any serious threats by tangling with NATO in the Baltics. We all know that is where Putin would like to strike next but I didn't think he would have enough popular support nor the military might to properly intimidate us into inaction. 

However Russia's shift to a war time economy is going to make them even more dependent on wartime profits. As soon as the Ukraine war ends their true economy is going to be plain to see. Putin is hallowing out their peacetime economy to feed his war machine. That social pressure he has been keen to avoid will be even hotter once the apathetic masses realize "winning" this war is not going to end up adding money to their pockets. It will not be business as usual.

So I could see Putin continuing to triple down on his bets and keep up the war angle. Especially if EU/USA keep up the sanctions. Putin might be able to convince enough of his serfs that the only way to keep food on their table is being able to keep working in his manufacturies cranking out shells and drones.

Plus with our own inability to really commit to ammo production means that we may look weaker than needed to stave off the little green men if they start showing up in Estonia. It's not something I thought was seriously possible but now it is becoming a bit more plausible. Especially thinking about Putin's own crazy psychological reasons for recovering their lost land and building his own legacy in history. Giving his subjects a financial reason for joining his megalomania is just the cherry on top of the shit sundae he is trying to serve up.

[Gatorubet 29817]

1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

https://news.yahoo.com/putin-deliver-state-union-address-110214267.html
 

If he was going to start shit in Moldova as some are claiming, this would be the time to announce it.

since the US has political ramifications surrounding the funding, starting shit in Moldova would be good for the US Shifting toward the good guys.  all the talk about Putin not stopping if he gets Ukraine would get some juice from that.  

[Gatorubet 29817]

1 hour ago, dimyh said:

I thought last year that the Russian military losses were so severe that they would be 4-5 years before they could attempt any serious threats by tangling with NATO in the Baltics. We all know that is where Putin would like to strike next but I didn't think he would have enough popular support nor the military might to properly intimidate us into inaction. 

However Russia's shift to a war time economy is going to make them even more dependent on wartime profits. As soon as the Ukraine war ends their true economy is going to be plain to see. Putin is hallowing out their peacetime economy to feed his war machine. That social pressure he has been keen to avoid will be even hotter once the apathetic masses realize "winning" this war is not going to end up adding money to their pockets. It will not be business as usual.

So I could see Putin continuing to triple down on his bets and keep up the war angle. Especially if EU/USA keep up the sanctions. Putin might be able to convince enough of his serfs that the only way to keep food on their table is being able to keep working in his manufacturies cranking out shells and drones.

Plus with our own inability to really commit to ammo production means that we may look weaker than needed to stave off the little green men if they start showing up in Estonia. It's not something I thought was seriously possible but now it is becoming a bit more plausible. Especially thinking about Putin's own crazy psychological reasons for recovering their lost land and building his own legacy in history. Giving his subjects a financial reason for joining his megalomania is just the cherry on top of the shit sundae he is trying to serve up.

if little green men show up in Estonia, the Finns and Poles will be fighting each other to see who gets to destroy all of them.  They can get their NATO on even without our help - and will. 

[Brisketexan 103740]

if little green men show up in Estonia, the Finns and Poles will be fighting each other to see who gets to destroy all of them.  They can get their NATO on even without our help - and will. 

And the Estonian Forest Brothers will be back in the game as well. Those folks still have a score to settle.

[Schulz2.0 28657]

10 hours ago, Parliament said:

There aren't used Humvee's we can give them?  

We've given them a good amount of Humvees. Ukraine producing their own vehicles is a good thing IMO.

[Schulz2.0 28657]

 

[Schulz2.0 28657]

https://kyivindependent.com/us-philanthropist-pledges-300-million-for-ukraine-in-2024/

Edited February 26 by Schulz2.0

[Schulz2.0 28657]

 

 

[Trey3216 15308]

On 2/24/2024 at 3:40 PM, Schulz2.0 said:

For @Brisketexan

I'd give here a little Baerbock action...

[Zonahorn 7972]

 

Glorious

[YGIFS 19445]

Sweden, Jerry.  Sweden!

[cactusflinthead 27269]

Because ax 

[Nivek 16692]

[/url] The French are discussing sending Mirage aircraft to Ukraine.

I’ll believe it when I see it.

[immamac 41790]

Let me know if twitter embeds seem faster and YouTube embeds. 

[locodos 5282]

47 minutes ago, Nivek said:

I’ll believe it when I see it.

[Parliament 14032]

3 hours ago, Zonahorn said:

 

Glorious

Zeihan says Sweden will bring serious heat to NATO.  A Navy built to fight in the Baltic and one of the best at amphibious invasion.  They will bring instant gravitas to NATO debates over how hard to fuck Russia.

[locodos 5282]

3 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Zeihan says Sweden will bring serious heat to NATO.  A Navy built to fight in the Baltic and one of the best at amphibious invasion.  They will bring instant gravitas to NATO debates over how hard to fuck Russia.

[Zonahorn 7972]

 

 

[DDD Dad 14078]

On 2/25/2024 at 9:49 AM, 956 Worldwide said:

We are already seeing a ramp up of hybrid activities in the Baltics.  I compare the Kremlin playbook to Leach’s Air Raid.  There are only a few actual plays and concepts they use, out of a huge mix of formations and camouflage. 
In the Baltics, I think a lot about a modified Donbas play.  Suddenly a bunch of Russian speakers near a border  mysteriously begin whining about rights. Russia reinforces their border. Soon unmarked equipment and unacknowledged advisors turn up across the border, autonomy is declared.  Russia declares its interest but not involvement in this “internal crisis.” 

[The Dog 43544]

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11648]

RIP light tan Sweden

[Schulz2.0 28657]

[Schulz2.0 28657]

 

 

 

[27-25 2030]

Interestingly, a small part of the ammo shortage problem might attributed to European unwillingness to source ammo from outside of Europe.  Germany, Czechia and now France are among those willing to find the tools the Ukrainians need wherever they may be. Germany's looking to procure some from India.

 

[atomheartbevo 89108]

Anybody seen a bingo card for Putin’s state of the nation address on Thursday?  This is an older one, but not too bad given that it’s missing a column,

another, older but fitting

 

Edited February 27 by atomheartbevo

[atomheartbevo 89108]

4 minutes ago, 27-25 said:

Interestingly, a small part of the ammo shortage problem might attributed to European unwillingness to source ammo from outside of Europe. 

Were they trying to keep the money in Europe?

Edited February 27 by atomheartbevo

[F250 28568]

33 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Anybody seen a bingo card for Putin’s state of the nation address on Thursday?  This is an older one, but not too bad given that it’s missing a column,

another, older but fitting

 

Hmm...

No reference to Yaroslav the Wise or Dmitri the Dyslexic.