Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[Biff Tannen 45665]

14 minutes ago, 3 Stacks said:

Do you know any Russians? Or any expats with family still there? Unfortunately, broadly the support is real, because the Russian media control is complete. They don’t know any better. Hoping for revolt from within is nonstarter. 

Yes is nonstarter. Much like moose and squirrel. Fuck off you Russian troll. 

[Bevo 13569]

22 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Yes is nonstarter. Much like moose and squirrel.

help me out here - Rocky and Bullwinkle reference is all I got.

[Sawbonz 27542]

Just now, Bevo said:

help me out here - Rocky and Bullwinkle reference is all I got.

Gru horn is back

[Bevo 13569]

Just now, Sawbonz said:

Gru horn is back

Yeah, I know that but what does "Yes is nonstarter. Much like moose and squirrel" mean.

[InkaUtexas 25873]

1 minute ago, Bevo said:

Yeah, I know that but what does "Yes is nonstarter. Much like moose and squirrel" mean.

Shitty english. Watched bullwinkle in the 1990's on Russia's version of Cartoon Channel. Believes Fred Flintstone was real.

[Parliament 14247]

11 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

Yeah cuz there has never been an internal revolt in Russia. Lenin going back was the catalyst. The revolt had already started.

And I do. Worked with quite a few of them. Have studied the country quite a bit. They are just a larger Serbia with worse booze and food.

 But more cabbage.

[Hook1997 5351]

The last hope for revolt was when the Wagner guy was marching towards Moscow.  Then his dumbass stopped and got himself killed.  Not sure if that would have been better but the opposition news has dropped drastically since.  Seems like since around that time everyone In Russia is like, ok it is what it is.  No news of crowds protesting or anything.  

Edited April 14 by Hook1997

[Captainant 27638]

5 minutes ago, Hook1997 said:

The last hope for revolt was when the Wagner guy was marching towards Moscow.  Then his dumbass stopped and got himself killed.  Not sure if that would have been better but the opposition news has dropped drastically since.  

Considering the last opposition political leader was disappeared into a russian prison and murdered, it's not that surprising that opposition news and enthusiasm has been falling in russia. Putin has got a totalitarian grip on his country, and he's been quite effective recently at maintaining that station 

[Biff Tannen 45665]

5 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Considering the last opposition political leader was disappeared into a russian prison and murdered, it's not that surprising that opposition news and enthusiasm has been falling in russia. Putin has got a totalitarian grip on his country, and he's been quite effective recently at maintaining that station 

Yep, it's an all or nothing proposition if you go against an authoritarian.  If you don't kill them pretty much immediately, well, that's a paddlin.

[DDD Dad 14326]

1 hour ago, Biff Tannen said:

Yep, it's an all or nothing proposition if you go against an authoritarian.  If you don't kill them pretty much immediately, well, that's a paddlin.

 

[atomheartbevo 89629]

18 hours ago, 3 Stacks said:

Do you know any Russians? Or any expats with family still there? Unfortunately, broadly the support is real, because the Russian media control is complete. They don’t know any better. Hoping for revolt from within is nonstarter. 

They fucking do know better because up to a million Russians and their family members fled Russia in 2022/2023 to avoid  conscription.  Their social media is full of tributes to dead or wounded Russians.  The fact that the talking heads on Russian state TV talk about nuking the West, and the fact that it’s been going on for two years is also a sign it’s not going like Putin planned.

Putin literally had the last opposition leader murdered in prison, and everybody knows it.

The people who would drive a revolt from the ground up most likely were a part of the group that left, so it’ll have to be the oligarchs and Putin has them all on leashes - killing Alexei Navalny back in February was a pretty good warning.

Edited April 14 by atomheartbevo

[InkaUtexas 25873]

And the occasional window incident.

 

[Biff Tannen 45665]

Just now, InkaUtexas said:

And the occasional window incident.

 

Defenestration is one of my favorite words.  So thanks for that Russia.

[Captainant 27638]

German Defense Minister really underscoring the criticality of what's at stake with Ukraine:

https://english.nv.ua/nation/europe-should-prepare-for-a-large-scale-russian-attack-german-defense-chief-says-50409492.html

Quote

 

Pistorius made the remarks during the presentation of a new biography of Churchill, whom he described as a strong leader with a clear vision in difficult times.

"Putin will not stop once the war against Ukraine is over," Pistorius said.

“Just as clearly as Hitler, who also always said that he would not stop.”

...

Europe is once again “facing a military threat that it has not been seen in 30 years,” German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said, warning of the possibility of a Russian attack within five to eight years.

 

 

[utee94 15808]

27 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Defenestration is one of my favorite words.  So thanks for that Russia.

Russia?  What the heck do the Czechs have to do to get some love around here?

 

[Schulz2.0 28951]

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/13/a-russian-pacifist-helped-ukrainians-flee-the-country-then-the-kremlin-caught-him

Russian guy in his 60s was helping Ukrainians leave Russia and go back to Ukraine. The Ahkmat dipshits in Belgorad captured and tortured him. They got him to confess to a trumped up gun possession charge and he died in pretrial custody recently.

[Schulz2.0 28951]

 

 

[bolverk 29656]

I never considered the creepy whirring sound those quadcopters would make in further terrorizing you.

[Steel Shank 9421]

I think I'd like to have a 12 gauge with me if I were those dudes.

[B00M 6414]

2 minutes ago, Steel Shank said:

I think I'd like to have a 12 gauge with me if I were those dudes.

But an AK with 2 magazines is plenty, comrade! Go hide under that burned out tank 

[atomheartbevo 89629]

2 hours ago, bolverk said:

I never considered the creepy whirring sound those quadcopters would make in further terrorizing you.

Imagine if you’re a Russian vet a few years down the road and you’re in a park, and a bunch of kids are flying drones around.

[Gatorubet 30185]

54 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Imagine if you’re a Russian vet a few years down the road and you’re in a park, and a bunch of kids are flying drones around.

after World War II, lots of guys would hit the ground when a car backfired

[Chad Fuck 17659]

47 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

after World War II, lots of guys would hit the ground when a car backfired

My Dad tells the story of going to pick up a date in the late 50s and right when her father - a WWII infantryman - opened the door, a car backfired in the street.  Before my Dad knew what was going on, the girls father had hit the deck, then jumped up and was brushing himself off and asking my Dad into the house.  It was a survival response that carried over into the real world.  PTSD is real.  

[NorthLoop 14183]

1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

Imagine if you’re a Russian vet a few years down the road and you’re in a park, and a bunch of kids are flying drones around.

 

1 hour ago, Gatorubet said:

after World War II, lots of guys would hit the ground when a car backfired

To be fair, the WWII guys had good training. The Russians will probably just hear the drones and stare up at the sky like idiot children. 

[bolverk 29656]

32 minutes ago, NorthLoop said:

To be fair, the WWII guys had good training. The Russians will probably just hear the drones and stare up at the sky like idiot children. 

My country-ass grandma used to have an expression about turkeys being so dumb they'd drown in a rainstorm from looking up and watching it fall.

[Parliament 14247]

American soldiers seem to have more will to live as well.

[InkaUtexas 25873]

3 hours ago, Gatorubet said:

after World War II, lots of guys would hit the ground when a car backfired

WW2? Shit, i still hate random fireworks. My dad did a few years in VN. Me in other places. We argue about who gets to watch the door.

PTSD is real and both Ukraine and Russia are going to have a lot of cases. I think Ukraine will deal with it better. Um, they seem more compassionate.

 

[crash_davis 23101]

On 2/28/2022 at 3:58 PM, InkaUtexas said:

Fuck this dude. 

In 2014, Russell Bonner Bentley was a middle-aged arborist living in Austin. Now he’s a local celebrity in a war-torn region of Ukraine—and a foot soldier in Russia’s information war.

https://www.texasmonthly.com/articles/son-wealthy-businessman-foot-soldier-vladimir-putin-russia-hacking/

 

On 9/9/2022 at 11:36 AM, TexasEd said:

https://www.newsweek.com/who-russell-bentley-texas-man-pro-russia-ukraine-1683618

Says if he returns to the US it will be on a Russian tank to liberate us.

 

He's returning to the US, except headless.

https://russiavsworld.org/russell-bentley-texan-pro-putin-fighter-and-russian-propagandist-found-decapitated-in-russian-controlled-donetsk/

Texan Russell Bentley was found decapitated in Petrovskiy district of Donetsk (temporary occupied territory of Ukraine) at 10 AM, 14 April 2024.

Beside his beheaded corpse were found Bentley’s passport with registration in Donetsk, Makarov pistol, credit cards and his wallet.

He used to fight for the pro-Russian militia battalion “Vostok”.

Russell Bentley went missing on 8 April 2024.

Russell Bentley, 63, who is married to a Russian woman and has a passport from his adopted country, disappeared after an attack by Defense Force of Ukraine, according to reports. He was last seen in Donetsk on 8 April before moving in an ‘unknown direction’, and his current location is unknown.

Bentley has posted that he was ‘heading west with the “Liberators of Ukraine”. We may stop in Kiev, we may stop on the English Channel. We may liberate the USA.’

In 1999 he escaped from a minimum security US facility where he was being held for drug trafficking. I didn’t have to dig a tunnel or take anybody hostage. But I did escape from prison’, Bentley said. He was later captured and put in a high security facility to finish his sentence.

He became a fighter for pro-Putin forces in 2014 after breaking up with his yoga-instructor girlfriend, though he spoke almost no Russian.

He called himself the information warrior and had worked for a media outlet affiliated with Sputnik, a Russian state media outlet.

Edited April 15 by crash_davis

[InkaUtexas 25873]

Fuck him and fuck Sputnik.

[Schulz2.0 28951]

 

[Nivek 16923]

35 minutes ago, crash_davis said:

He's returning to the US, except headless.

Why?  He chose to be there.  Let him stay there.  

[Bevo 13569]

1 minute ago, Nivek said:

Why?  He chose to be there.  Let him stay there.  

both parts or just the head?

[Chad Fuck 17659]

both parts or just the head?

Why not both?

[bolverk 29656]

36 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

 

Just to put this into perspective, €4.4 billion / 17.7 million people = €248.29 from every man, woman, and child in the Netherlands.

This would be equivalent to the US providing $88.0 billion at today's exchange rate.

[NorthLoop 14183]

2 hours ago, crash_davis said:

 

 

He's returning to the US, except headless.

https://russiavsworld.org/russell-bentley-texan-pro-putin-fighter-and-russian-propagandist-found-decapitated-in-russian-controlled-donetsk/

Texan Russell Bentley was found decapitated in Petrovskiy district of Donetsk (temporary occupied territory of Ukraine) at 10 AM, 14 April 2024.

Beside his beheaded corpse were found Bentley’s passport with registration in Donetsk, Makarov pistol, credit cards and his wallet.

He used to fight for the pro-Russian militia battalion “Vostok”.

Russell Bentley went missing on 8 April 2024.

Russell Bentley, 63, who is married to a Russian woman and has a passport from his adopted country, disappeared after an attack by Defense Force of Ukraine, according to reports. He was last seen in Donetsk on 8 April before moving in an ‘unknown direction’, and his current location is unknown.

Bentley has posted that he was ‘heading west with the “Liberators of Ukraine”. We may stop in Kiev, we may stop on the English Channel. We may liberate the USA.’

In 1999 he escaped from a minimum security US facility where he was being held for drug trafficking. I didn’t have to dig a tunnel or take anybody hostage. But I did escape from prison’, Bentley said. He was later captured and put in a high security facility to finish his sentence.

He became a fighter for pro-Putin forces in 2014 after breaking up with his yoga-instructor girlfriend, though he spoke almost no Russian.

He called himself the information warrior and had worked for a media outlet affiliated with Sputnik, a Russian state media outlet.

Ashli Babbit saved a nice warm seat for him. 

[F250 28764]

6 hours ago, Gatorubet said:

after World War II, lots of guys would hit the ground when a car backfired

I had a friend that drove really aggressive when he returned from serving in Iraq. He wouldn't stay in his lane, would frequently speed and avoided coming to a stop. From what I understand some vets return conditioned to drive like this because of IEDs and ambushes back in Iraq.

[Bevo 13569]

1 hour ago, bolverk said:

 

Just to put this into perspective, €4.4 billion / 17.7 million people = €248.29 from every man, woman, and child in the Netherlands.

This would be equivalent to the US providing $88.0 billion at today's exchange rate.

Last night as I was going to bed, I was thinking about the chart that @956 Worldwide provided regarding percent of GDP and how poorly the US is doing with regard to Ukraine (I think he said something like .002% of GDP) - I know lame bedtime thoughts, right? I think what spurred the thought was seeing that we give $300M to Iran in foreign aid and real quick it was easy to see that it was a dollar per person. The more important stat is dollars per tax paying family. Can we do that for the Netherlands? Like take the 17.7M. How many households is that? And then what percent of households pay taxes? Then divide that number. I bet $248 per person ends up something like $700 per tax paying household. That is a lot of money even if it is only 1% of their GDP.

[Brisketexan 105077]

1 hour ago, F250 said:

I had a friend that drove really aggressive when he returned from serving in Iraq. He wouldn't stay in his lane, would frequently speed and avoided coming to a stop. From what I understand some vets return conditioned to drive like this because of IEDs and ambushes back in Iraq.

I wasn't in Iraq.

I'm just an asshole, and drive the same way.

[bolverk 29656]

1 hour ago, Bevo said:

Last night as I was going to bed, I was thinking about the chart that @956 Worldwide provided regarding percent of GDP and how poorly the US is doing with regard to Ukraine (I think he said something like .002% of GDP) - I know lame bedtime thoughts, right? I think what spurred the thought was seeing that we give $300M to Iran in foreign aid and real quick it was easy to see that it was a dollar per person. The more important stat is dollars per tax paying family. Can we do that for the Netherlands? Like take the 17.7M. How many households is that? And then what percent of households pay taxes? Then divide that number. I bet $248 per person ends up something like $700 per tax paying household. That is a lot of money even if it is only 1% of their GDP.

I have no idea how you break it out by who pays taxes or how exactly their taxes are structured there. From what I recall, lots of EU countries depend heavily on VAT taxes, which wouldn't necessarily be based on households. Then, of course, there's income which is. I'm sure @956 Worldwide could help out better with that query than me. 

[956 Worldwide 34703]

It’s not relevant to try and go down this road because the tax systems are so different. The relevant thing is that nearly all of Europe is doing their share, likely more proportionally in many cases.

Which is fine, it’s good. But just take that talking point away. We are behind them. 

[Schulz2.0 28951]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/04/13/ukrainian-fighter-pilots-are-itching-to-glide-bomb-russian-troops-ukraines-new-ram-ii-drones-are-clearing-the-way/?sh=6ac3a08f7360

[Armybrat 40824]

7 hours ago, Chad Fuck said:

My Dad tells the story of going to pick up a date in the late 50s and right when her father - a WWII infantryman - opened the door, a car backfired in the street.  Before my Dad knew what was going on, the girls father had hit the deck, then jumped up and was brushing himself off and asking my Dad into the house.  It was a survival response that carried over into the real world.  PTSD is real.  

In August, 1966, less than a week after Charles Whitman’s Tower massacre, while going back to my apartment after a summer class I turned the corner in front of the old Varsity Theater (now a CVS & Wells Fargo) on the Drag to walk westward on 24th. 
About halfway down the block there was an extremely loud & sharp “bang” like a gunshot, and I dropped to the sidewalk as did two other guys not far in front of me. 

It was a scary moment before we got up to realize what happened - the Castilian dorm building was under construction and the massive work crane alongside it apparently had lost a load when the cable snapped and dropped it several stories.
There was a good size cloud of dust billowing above the plywood barrier fence by the construction site and some workers were shouting. Luckily nobody was hurt in the accident. 
I and the other jittery pedestrians dusted ourselves off to resume our journey back to West Campus.

[B00M 6414]

2 hours ago, Schulz2.0 said:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/04/13/ukrainian-fighter-pilots-are-itching-to-glide-bomb-russian-troops-ukraines-new-ram-ii-drones-are-clearing-the-way/?sh=6ac3a08f7360

Simultaneously encouraging and infuriating.
 

it seems like we need US private DOD contractors to sell designs to European partners (or whatever it takes) to accelerate European production. Is that possible and happening to any extent given ITAR? Would it require a literal act of congress to allow? Is the EU sharing designs from country to country to optimize production? 

[Bevo 13569]

 

How F-16s could change the war in Ukraine

Peter Brookes 

Reading time: 10 min

April 11, 2024

 

While F-16 fighter jets are unlikely to deliver Ukrainian air superiority against Russian invaders, the aircraft will provide a powerful advantage to Kyiv’s forces.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen sit in the cockpit of an F-16 fighter jet during their visit to the Fighter Wing Skrydstrup air base of the Royal Danish Air Force in Vojens, Denmark, on Aug. 21, 2023. © Getty Images 

In a nutshell

• After two years of contested control of the skies, Russia may have gained limited air superiority
• F-16s are no cure-all for Ukraine’s defense challenges, but will create a new threat vector for Russia
• The fighter jets will increase Kyiv’s defense capabilities; the sooner they are delivered, the better

With the war in Ukraine now in its third year, the pitched battle this past winter between Russian and Ukrainian forces for the town of Avdiivka now appears notable for at least two reasons.

The first is that Ukraine’s loss of the town marks the latest in a series of high-profile military setbacks, including its counteroffensive; the second is that it appears that for the first time in the war, Russia has, at least for the moment, gained a degree of local air superiority.

This report will focus on the role command of the skies may play in the Ukraine conflict, especially with deliveries of Western F-16 Fighting Falcon jets expected to start in limited numbers this year.

What is air superiority?

In Western military doctrine, modern warfare has long consisted of three key domains: the ground, the sea (surface and subsurface) and the air. Now, cyber and space are also – rightly – included in that list.

While these domains are distinct, they are also deeply interconnected. This is the idea behind the concept of joint military operations and joint warfare: Success in the battlespace is best achieved through command of all, or as many as possible, of these domains.

“These aircraft will increase the versatility, firepower and responsiveness of the Ukrainian forces at a critical time in the conflict.”

Air superiority is, in its simplest sense, control of the skies, including the capability to address airborne threats such as aircraft, unmanned combat aerial-vehicles (UCAVs) and mobile and fixed air defenses. Support in this domain is what Kyiv has been seeking from its Western allies since the onset of the war.

According to the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff:

The degree of [air] control can range from no control, to a parity (or neutral) situation wherein neither adversary can claim any level of control over the other, to local air superiority in a specific area, to air supremacy over the entire operational area. Control may vary over time.

As a fundamental element of modern warfare, air superiority has the potential to provide critical advantages in the battlespace for those forces that are able to contest for it and achieve it.

Does air superiority matter? In Ukraine?

One may reasonably expect that the response to both of those questions is a resounding “Yes.” But, in fact, the answer is more nuanced. While there are seemingly a number of significant military advantages to air superiority if it can be achieved, in reality, the strategic value of air superiority – which is costly to provide and complex to maintain – largely depends on the context and goals of the conflict.

When air superiority is a given, for example if the opponent does not have any air assets or air defenses, the situation is positive for the side with air supremacy. But even then, it may not be a determinant of the conflict’s outcome.

Take the example of the U.S. and coalition allies in the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. In both conflicts, the coalition forces had clear air superiority over their opponents, yet while that enviable state of play was important, it arguably did not prove decisive in the end due to the nature of the warfare.

The reason is that those two wars were fought against terrorist networks and violent extremist insurgencies, which can operate differently than conventional forces. Insurgents often use hit-and-run and terrorist tactics conducted by small, paramilitary units or terror cells, especially in urban environments or other favorable terrains. This situation makes air power a challenging tool to use efficiently and effectively if the employing force is concerned about issues such as collateral damage, particularly civilian casualties.

The allies’ ground and maritime military campaigns became less costly, more efficient, more effective – and arguably more decisive – because of their air superiority.

On the other hand, consider World War II, which was primarily a conventional war between large militaries, with a plethora of air targets on the battlefield, from storage and supply depots to mechanized units – which is in some ways similar to the disposition of Russian forces occupying Ukraine today. Military-industrial targets far behind enemy lines also offered objectives of a strategic nature. 

The allies’ eventual destruction of enemy military targets from above – while providing air cover to advancing allied ground and naval forces – was a critical factor in the conflict’s outcome. The allies’ ground and maritime military campaigns became less costly, more efficient, more effective – and arguably more decisive – because of their air superiority.

The same could be argued for the Ukraine war, in which traditional army units and related infrastructure are found across the theater of operations. The achievement of air superiority could be decisive for either side in achieving their long-term political and military objectives.

Allies providing Ukraine with the Patriot and similar air defense systems have already significantly slowedthe Russian campaign – instead of taking Kyiv in three days as Russia seemed to have planned, Moscow’s invasion is now in its third costly year. Additionally, Ukrainians have been using their own drones as well as those made by others, including Turkish defense company Baykar, to strike Russian forces.

Read more on air defense systems

• Drones and asymmetric warfare in Ukraine and Israel
• The quest for military superiority in Ukraine

Ukrainian air power, even such as it is currently, has played an important role in blunting Russian aggression thus far. Nevertheless, recent setbacks on the ground for Kyiv and a military resurgence by Moscow in the aftermath of the Russian presidential elections highlight the need for additional Ukrainian air power.

“If employed innovatively and jointly with other Ukrainian service elements, the jets could be a force multiplier.”

Current debates on the provision of new armaments for Ukraine center not only on procuring basic defense needs such as artillery shells, but on whether to provide longer-range offensive missiles and to what degree fighter jets should be incorporated into Ukraine’s military capabilities and strategy.

To date, Denmark, along with the Netherlands, Norway and Belgium – NATO countries that worked with the U.S. to jointly manufacture F-16s – have pledged the aircraft to Ukraine. Additional NATO allies are providing training to Ukraine’s pilots and ground crews.

Scenarios

Despite initial expectations that Russia would dominate the air battle against Ukraine, the skies over the battlefield have been best described as “contested,” with neither Moscow nor Kyiv dominating extensively or exclusively.

While Ukraine’s air force was smaller and less capable in comparison to the Russian air force at the beginning of the war, the provision to Kyiv of air defenses such as Soviet-era and NATO surface-to-air missile (SAM) systems and man-portable air defense systems (MANPADS) was able to keep the control of the skies over Ukraine in dispute.

So, will the delivery of some 60 F-16 Fighting Falcon (aka Viper) jets – possibly beginning as early as this summer – have an effect on the air battle and, potentially, the course of the war in Ukraine?

Less likely: F-16s will make no difference

It is possible that the transfer of NATO F-16s will make no major difference in the air battle over Ukraine and, ultimately, in the war. Despite intensive flight training in NATO countries, Ukrainian pilots are relatively new to this airframe and, despite their patriotic zeal, their lack of flight hours and combat experience in the fourth-generation (non-stealth) F-16s could be costly.

Russian fighter jets such as the fourth-generation Su-27, Su-30 and MiG-29 are a match for the NATO F-16; Russian Su-34 and Su-35 aircraft, as fourth-generation-plus fighters, are generally considered superior to the F-16. The Russian Su-57 is considered a fifth-generation fighter and has stealth features.

The airmanship and dogfighting capability of Russian pilots may also be a match for Ukrainian pilots, resulting in significant losses in terms of F-16 aircraft and, equally importantly, F-16 trained pilots. (Most Russian air losses to date have been to Ukrainian air defense systems.)

Perhaps more challenging for Kyiv, Moscow also has very capable land-based air defenses including the S-300/-350 and S-400 SAM systems that threaten Ukrainian aircraft flying within its extended range. Importantly, the S-400 is considered one of the world’s most capable SAM systems.

In addition to strategic SAM systems, Russia also has mobile air defenses and MANPADS; A-50 airborne warning and control aircraft provide air situational awareness to friendly Russian forces.

Keeping Ukrainian F-16s airborne may be a challenge as well. Ukrainian airfields will be prime targets for Russian strikes from ballistic and cruise missiles, bombs and one-way attack drones, challenging aircraft sortie rates. Moscow has also threatened to strike allied NATO airfields outside Ukraine that host F-16s bound for Kyiv.

Ukrainian maintenance technicians are being trained on the new aircraft, but the F-16s are likely more sophisticated than the systems they are used to working on. Foreign, private contractors may supplement the technicians, but the availability of spare parts will also be critical to keeping planes in the air.

As a result of these challenges, informed analysts and policymakers reasonably argue that NATO’s time, money and effort would be better spent on other advanced weapons systems (ATACMS and UCAVs) and ammunition (artillery and air defense missiles) rather than F-16 fighter jets.

More likely: F-16s will make some difference

The arrival of NATO F-16s will clearly bring a new political and military dimension to the war. The skies over Ukraine could become increasingly contested, stretching Russian military resources and complicating Moscow’s operational strategy.

While the F-16 is not a panacea for all that ails Ukraine’s armed forces and its campaign, for instance personnel shortages, the fighter jets will significantly increase Kyiv’s potential offensive and defensive air capabilities, creating a new threat vector against Russia at a critical point in the conflict.

The F-16s offer the possibility of close air support to friendly ground forces, the suppression of enemy air defenses and an enhancement to the capabilities of the country’s missile and air defenses. The initial success or failure of the F-16 in these missions will likely be predicated on the weapons (such as air-air and air-ground) and the avionic capabilities of the newly arriving jet fighters, as well as on the skills of the pilots themselves.

Moreover, high-risk F-16 raids into Russian-held territory in Ukraine against military or highly symbolic targets could draw Moscow’s ire but also could put political pressure on the Kremlin and further weaken the Russian public’s support of the war.

In the ongoing management of escalation risks with Russia (conventional weapons to weapons of mass destruction), U.S. officials have said that Kyiv’s use of F-16s must only be in Ukrainian airspace and not in Russian sovereign territory. Of course, that policy may change over time, depending on circumstances.

The expected arrival of these aircraft from the West this year will also likely counter perceptions of sagging morale in Kyiv, in the Ukrainian armed forces and among the country’s people fighting for self-determination and their very existence. It will also provide a clear statement to Russia of NATO’s continuing support of Ukraine, undermining Moscow’s current message that the West is abandoning Kyiv.

Despite not being a cutting-edge military aircraft in comparison to fourth-generation-plus and fifth-generation aircraft, the multi-role F-16 is nevertheless widely considered to be the “Swiss Army knife” of modern jet fighters. If employed innovatively and jointly with other Ukrainian service elements, the jets could be a force multiplier for Kyiv.

While new Ukrainian F-16 air assets are unlikely to be decisive in achieving air superiority in the current war or in ultimately deciding the outcome of the war, these aircraft will increase the versatility, firepower and responsiveness of the Ukrainian forces at a critical time in the conflict, potentially helping to thwart and reverse Russian political-military objectives in Ukraine.

For industry-specific scenarios and bespoke geopolitical intelligence, contact us and we will provide you with more information about our advisory services.

 

 

[bolverk 29656]

This is a good, straightforward assessment of Ukraine's three biggest challenges. All three seem fixable, but it will take time. They also should remind us of all the lost time.

 

Ukraine’s Big Vulnerabilities: Ammunition, Soldiers and Air Defense
The shortages add up to a dire situation for Ukraine in the third year of the war, presenting commanders with near impossible choices on how to deploy limited resources.

Ukraine’s top military commander has issued a bleak assessment of the army’s positions on the eastern front, saying they have “worsened significantly in recent days.”

Russian forces were pushing hard to exploit their growing advantage in manpower and ammunition to break through Ukrainian lines, the commander, Gen. Oleksandr Syrsky, said in a statement over the weekend.

“Despite significant losses, the enemy is increasing his efforts by using new units on armored vehicles, thanks to which he periodically achieves tactical gains,” the general said.

At the same time, Ukraine’s energy ministry told millions of civilians to charge their power banks, get their generators out of storage and “be ready for any scenario” as Ukrainian power plants are damaged or destroyed in devastating Russian airstrikes.

With few critical military supplies flowing into Ukraine from the United States for months, commanders are being forced to make difficult choices over where to deploy limited resources as the toll on civilians grows daily.

Even before the disappearance of American assistance — a bill to provide $60 billion in military and other aid may come to a vote in the House of Representatives this week — there was a consensus among Ukrainian commanders and military analysts that the third year of war was going to be extremely difficult.

President Volodymyr Zelensky warned again on Monday night that delays in American assistance are deepening the challenges at the front and said the latest information from Ukrainian intelligence suggested that the Kremlin is preparing for some sort of major offensive in late spring or early summer.

The three most critical challenges for Ukraine have been evident for months: a lack of ammunition, a shortage of well-trained troops and dwindling air defenses.

Now, as Russia intensifies its assaults, each individual issue is compounding the impact of the other vulnerabilities and heightening the risk that Russian forces will push through Ukrainian defenses.

Here is a look at the critical challenges Ukraine faces at the moment and how its leaders are trying to mitigate them.

 

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Shell Hunger
In testimony before Congress last week, Gen. Christopher G. Cavoli, the top American military commander in Europe, provided a blunt assessment of Ukraine’s dire shortage of ammunition.

“If one side can shoot and the other side can’t shoot back, the side that can’t shoot back loses,” General Cavoli said.

America had provided Ukraine with the bulk of its artillery munitions, he said, and Russia is poised to soon be able to fire 10 shells for every Ukrainian shell.

“If we do not continue to support Ukraine, Ukraine could lose,” he testified, urging lawmakers to approve a new aid package.

The longer range and greater destructive power of rocket systems and big guns like Howitzers — which are not affected by weather and are less susceptible to electronic warfare interference than drones — make them essential tools. While drones have significantly altered the battlefield, often turning any attempt to cross open terrain into a suicide mission, they have limits.

“Drones can effectively destroy military equipment, tanks,” said Viktor Nazarov, an adviser to the former Ukrainian top general, Valery Zaluzhny. “But you cannot destroy defensive lines with drones.”

When the enemy has an advantage of five to one in terms of shells, Mr. Nazarov said, they can attack. When it reaches 10 to one, they can succeed.

Since the fall of Avdiivka earlier this year, Russia has taken only small patches of land at great cost without scoring a major operational breakthrough. But after replenishing its arsenal with assistance from North Korea and Iran, Russia is using a period of warm, dry weather to launch assaults with dozens of tanks and fighting vehicles in recent days, Ukrainian officials said.

General Syrsky said Russia was trying to seize the moment to achieve an operational breakthrough along several major lines of attack, posing the most imminent threat to the town of Chasiv Yar. The heavily fortified hilltop town — seven miles west of Bakhmut — protects an agglomeration of some of the Donbas region’s largest cities, including the home of the eastern command in Kramatorsk.

Ukrainian commanders are hopeful that several initiatives by European allies to secure hundreds of thousands of artillery shells will soon start to alleviate their urgent need.

The president of the Czech Republic, Petr Pavel, told reporters last week that his country had now identified one million rounds of 155-caliber artillery shells — 200,000 more than previously estimated — and that 15 nations had joined the campaign to finance their purchase.

Estonia and Britain are leading similar drives, Mr. Pavel said. It remains unclear how successful they will be or how quickly large stocks of ammunition can make it to the front.

Until then, the burden will fall on the infantry. And since, as General Cavoli testified, artillery remains the biggest killer in Ukraine, Russia’s advantage means more Ukrainian soldiers will die. That deepens another major vulnerability: troop strength.

 

 

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Mobilization
When the commander of Ukrainian forces in the east, Gen. Yurii Sodol, addressed lawmakers last week ahead of a vote aimed at improving the nation’s draft process, he painted a bleak portrait.

The widespread use of drones, he said, means that an armored vehicle is usually targeted and destroyed within 30 minutes when deployed to the zero line at the front. So it falls primarily to the infantry soldiers to hold their positions without much support against waves of Russian infantry attacks.

A squad of eight to 10 soldiers is typically tasked with defending 100 meters of land, General Sodol said, but Ukraine cannot always field full squads.

“If there are only two soldiers, they can defend 20 meters of the front,” he said. “Immediately, the question arises: Who will cover the remaining 80 meters?”

Parliament has recently passed laws aimed at replenishing its forces, but the process took months, and there are still many challenges with recruitment. In an effort to meet immediate needs, the Ukrainian command said it would rotate “thousands” of soldiers currently in the rear to combat positions. But that creates another problem: ensuring soldiers deployed to the front have proper training.

General Syrsky said that the quality of training was a “serious problem” and that they were working to have combat veterans take a more active role in the process to improve the situation.

But no amount of training can protect against the powerful thousand-pound glide bombs that Russia has been using to obliterate Ukrainian fortifications. That is why, Ukrainians say, they urgently need help from Western allies to help finally close the sky.

 

 

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Air Defense
“If we talk about the air war, it should be divided into two parts,” Mr. Nazarov, the senior military adviser, said.

“The first part is our air and missile defense against Russian missile attacks across the entire territory of our country,” he said. “The second part is what the war in the air looks like on the front line.”

On both fronts, Ukraine is struggling.

The Institute for the Study of War, in a special report on the aerial campaign, said commanders faced tough choices in how to deploy air defenses. The systems that can intercept Russian missiles targeting Ukrainian cities and infrastructure, it said, are the same ones needed to keep Russian bombers dropping glide bombs at bay.

“The Russians are taking advantage of the withdrawal of those air defense systems from the front lines to make slow but steady gains on the ground,” the institute said.

Degraded Ukrainian air defenses have also allowed Russia to have more success in targeting critical infrastructure, which the institute said could have “cascading effects” on Ukraine’s ability to build up its domestic weapons production.

Mr. Zelensky said on Saturday that some 500 defense industry enterprises were operating in Ukraine, employing almost 300,000 people to produce shells, mortars, armored vehicles, anti-tank weaponry, electronic warfare systems, drones and other munitions.

But factories need power. And Ukraine’s energy minister, Herman Halushchenko, said attacks on energy infrastructure since late March had been the most intense of the war — even more extensive than the bombing campaign in the winter of 2022-23 that nearly collapsed the grid.

Ukraine has sought to counter the Russian threat by attacking Russian airfields and critical infrastructure in a series of long-range drone strikes, but officials in Kyiv are under no illusions: Without sophisticated Western air defense systems, they are in trouble.

Kyiv is hoping that Ukrainian pilots currently training on F-16 fighter jets will be flying in the skies above Ukraine by summer, adding another desperately sought layer of defense. But with American assistance still in doubt, Ukraine’s foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, has made a full-throated push to secure Patriot air-defense batteries currently sitting idle in Europe.

 

 

[bolverk 29656]

Ukrainian drone operators are impressive. Boop, boop, boom in the butthole.

 

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Ukraine Strikes Radar Station in Russia, ‘Turned Into Colander,’ Sources Say
Sources within the special services told Kyiv Post that a $100 million radar monitoring the sky 700 km deep into Ukrainian territory was targeted inside Russia by seven kamikaze drones.

The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) targeted a Russian long-range radar station in the Bryansk region, which was monitoring the sky 700 km deep into Ukrainian territory, sources within the special services informed Kyiv Post.

“The Russians now have one less modernized Nebo-U complex,” the source said.

This radar helped Russian troops detect Ukrainian weapons and supported bombers attacking Ukrainian border settlements with guided aerial bombs.

The radar, valued at $100 million, was hit by seven aircraft-type kamikaze drones. According to sources, the Nebo-U complex is no longer operational and has “likely turned into a colander.”

The source added that the destruction of this radar has limited Russian troops’ ability to detect air targets along the northern border of Ukraine.

“The radar blackout for the Russians will assist our troops in conducting reconnaissance, launching drones, and making better use of army aviation in this area,” the source told Kyiv Post.

This marks the second Nebo-U complex destroyed by the 13th Main Directorate of Military Counterintelligence of the SBU. The first was destroyed in Russia’s Belgorod region, according to the source’s data.

The Russian Nebo-U, a modernized version of the Soviet-era Nebo radar, is intended for detecting, measuring the coordinates and tracking air targets of various categories from aircraft to cruise and guided missiles, including small hypersonic, ballistic and subtle missiles using stealth technologies at 600 km. The complex was adopted by the Russian army in 1995.

In March, the Special Operations Forces (SSO) announced the successful destruction of the Zhitel Russian electronic warfare complex in the Zaporizhzhia region.

Previously, the SSO reported the successful destruction of the Russian Zoopark-1 surveillance and fire control radar complex, a highly valued asset often touted by the Russian military. The radar station, along with its crew, was eliminated. According to open-source data, the complex is estimated to cost approximately $10-15 million.

 

 

 

[Bevo 13569]

32 minutes ago, bolverk said:

Parliament has recently passed laws aimed at replenishing its forces, but the process took months, and there are still many challenges with recruitment.

I didn't hear this. Good to know that they are fixing the manpower issue.

[bolverk 29656]

 

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Canada to Hand Over 450 SkyRanger Drones to Ukraine This Summer

Canada will start handing over 450 SkyRanger multi-purpose unmanned aerial systems to Ukraine this summer.

The Ministry of Defense of Ukraine reported on this.

According to the ministry, at an extraordinary meeting of the steering group of the Drone Coalition, Ukraine informed its partners ‘about the situation on the battlefield and the urgent needs to repel enemy attacks.’

It was decided that Canada will start transferring 450 SkyRanger multi-purpose unmanned aerial systems in the summer.

Back in February of this year, Canadian Defense Minister Bill Blair announced that the country would transfer 800 SkyRanger R70 unmanned aerial systems.

The transfer of drones is funded by $500 million in military aid to Ukraine.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced this assistance during his visit to Kyiv in June 2023.

The SkyRanger R70 is a multi-purpose unmanned aerial system developed by Teledyne FLIR.

It includes multi-rotor vertical takeoff and landing drones that can perform reconnaissance and logistics functions.

The drones are equipped with an autonomous navigation system, which allows the drone to operate under manual or autonomous control without being tied to satellite signals.

The manufacturer claims that the onboard computer is capable of automatically capturing targets at a distance of up to 5 km and identifying up to 10 moving objects simultaneously.

The SkyRanger R70 drones are equipped with a carbon fiber and magnesium frame. They can operate at altitudes up to 4,500 meters above sea level and withstand sustained winds of 65 km/h and gusts of up to 90 km/h. They are capable of carrying a payload of up to 3.5 kg, which makes it possible to use the unmanned platform, in addition to reconnaissance, as a means of delivering cargo or dropping ammunition.

 

 

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The Netherlands, in cooperation with Denmark and Germany, will purchase RQ-35 Heidrun UAVs for Ukraine

The Netherlands will purchase RQ-35 Heidrun reconnaissance drones for Ukraine worth €200 million.

The drones will be procured in cooperation with Denmark and Germany as part of the Drone Coalition.

The press service of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine reported about this after an extraordinary meeting of the Coalition’s steering group held the day before.

In March of this year, Defense Minister Kajsa Ollongren, following a meeting of the Contact Group on Defense of Ukraine, said that the Netherlands would purchase aviation weapons for F-16 fighter jets, which would soon be transferred to Ukraine.

The Dutch government also decided to purchase €200 million worth of reconnaissance UAVs for Ukraine.

However, it was not specified at the time what type of drones were being purchased. It was only noted that their purchase would be made in coordination with other partner countries and the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

And now the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine has reported that it regarded RQ-35 Heidrun drones, which would be purchased in cooperation with Denmark and Germany. However, it is not known what role these countries play in the procurement of these UAVs.

RQ-35 Heidrun drone
The RQ-35 Heidrun reconnaissance drones are manufactured by the Danish company Sky-Watch and are designed for reconnaissance and target detection at low altitudes.

The fixed-wing RQ-35 Heidrun is launched from the hand. The radius of data collection and streaming video transmission reaches up to 30 km, while the generation of new 2D/3D mapping material reaches up to 25 kilometers.

The fully equipped RQ-35 Heidrun unmanned aircraft system, together with a short-range patch antenna, fits into a backpack.

As Militarnyi reported, last week the Dutch government agreed to allocate an additional billion euros in military aid in addition to the €2 billion the Netherlands had previously planned to support the Armed Forces of Ukraine in 2024.

The country will provide €3 billion in military aid next year and allocate €400 million to support the economy and repair Ukraine’s critical infrastructure.

 

 

[bolverk 29656]

10 minutes ago, Bevo said:

I didn't hear this. Good to know that they are fixing the manpower issue.

I really hesitate to criticize Ukraine too much, but this issue has puzzled me.

[atomheartbevo 89629]

9 minutes ago, bolverk said:

I really hesitate to criticize Ukraine too much, but this issue has puzzled me.

They’ve partly been trying to preserve the 18-25 crowd as much as possible, hoping they’ll make lots of babies as well as keeping their economy going.