Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[956 Worldwide 34443]

5 hours ago, Hook1997 said:

No CR but what does this look like under Trump or does it even happen?  @Shady Ray @956 Worldwide    Not looking for political comments by others just their opinion, also not a fan of Trump fan or his arrogance but just a what if question for these two so let’s keep it non CR if we can.  Just would like to know from them how this would be different in their opinion without going to CR.

No CR but it’s hard to tell.  I do think we’d be far less active and effective at coordinating with allies on a common response and keeping multitrack diplomacy open.  Putin’s preference to only deal with the U.S. and cut deals between the big men would likely have appealed to DJT so you would see a lot more bilateral with Russia talks and less among friends, resulting in an even more haphazard Western response and a leadership void.  And there would be a lot of chaotic messaging from the various U.S. agencies and players because DJT would announce things on the fly. 

[Shady Ray 1633]

Yeah, I do want to make clear that while my position is certainly critical of Ukrainian governance and I personally would not like to see it joining the EU or NATO any time soon, I certainly do not think that their shortcomings warrant Russian aggression. Their sovereignty should be respected just like any other country does with respect to illegal acts of aggression.

 

I think we are just at a really difficult situation where there is not a clear way forward, as this is one of those times where military escalation does not work in our favor. And this is a position that is somewhat unique for us from a foreign policy standpoint.

 

Interesting article out yesterday in the NYT detailing Russian military capabilities. Providing Yahoo link due to paywall.

 

https://news.yahoo.com/russias-military-once-creaky-modern-124721425.html

 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13414]

9 minutes ago, Shady Ray said:

Yeah, I do want to make clear that while my position is certainly critical of Ukrainian governance and I personally would not like to see it joining the EU or NATO any time soon, I certainly do not think that their shortcomings warrant Russian aggression. Their sovereignty should be respected just like any other country does with respect to illegal acts of aggression.

 

I think we are just at a really difficult situation where there is not a clear way forward, as this is one of those times where military escalation does not work in our favor. And this is a position that is somewhat unique for us from a foreign policy standpoint.

 

Interesting article out yesterday in the NYT detailing Russian military capabilities. Providing Yahoo link due to paywall.

 

https://news.yahoo.com/russias-military-once-creaky-modern-124721425.html

 

Russia’s military budget is on par with France, UK or Germany. The main Russian asset is the size of the military not the tech. The European NATO forces would dominate Russia in the air. And if the US was involved, Russia would fold within days. Days.  But Russia has the nuclear threat to stop everyone in their tracks.  They could bum rush Kiev, and before there was any major international reaction, threaten the nuclear potential is anyone attacks them.

and if we see more attitudes like how Ukraine might be better off under Putins control, that’s creates problems for western leaders.

My opinion: if Putin wants to invade Ukraine, we should provide large amounts of military aid to Ukraine. If only to drain Russian resources. If Putin wants to be drawn into a never-ending war in Ukraine, let’s help him with that cause. We only have to turn on the money printing machine. 

[crash_davis 23084]

30 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

My opinion: if Putin wants to invade Ukraine, we should provide large amounts of military aid to Ukraine. If only to drain Russian resources. If Putin wants to be drawn into a never-ending war in Ukraine, let’s help him with that cause. We only have to turn on the money printing machine. 

printing machines and guns go brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

[Nice Guy Eddie 13414]

Any conflict in Ukraine destabilizes eastern europe's reliance on russian oil. Too many pipelines running through the country. Germany may have no choice but to intervene when the pipelines are cut off by either side.

Whoever controls the cut-off valve, controls the oil.

Russia needs a diplomatic compromise. And honesty, so does everyone else.  

[Shady Ray 1633]

14 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Russia needs a diplomatic compromise. And honesty, so does everyone else.  

Hopefully this can be taken as at least a small, tiny, positive sign.

 

I mean, in Lavrov-speak this is the equivalent to pillow talk:

 

Quote

"If it depends on the Russian Federation, there won't be a war," Lavrov said in an interview with Russian radio stations in an indication Moscow is willing to continue to engage in finding a diplomatic solution to the crisis.

"We do not want wars, but we won't allow our interests to be rudely trod upon or to be ignored," Lavrov said, adding that the U.S. proposals were "almost an example of diplomatic propriety," compared to NATO's highly "idealized" response.

https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-ukraine-lavrov-war/31675944.html

 

 

Edited January 28, 2022 by Shady Ray

[956 Worldwide 34443]

5 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Russia’s military budget is on par with France, UK or Germany. The main Russian asset is the size of the military not the tech. The European NATO forces would dominate Russia in the air. And if the US was involved, Russia would fold within days. Days.  But Russia has the nuclear threat to stop everyone in their tracks.  They could bum rush Kiev, and before there was any major international reaction, threaten the nuclear potential is anyone attacks them.

and if we see more attitudes like how Ukraine might be better off under Putins control, that’s creates problems for western leaders.

My opinion: if Putin wants to invade Ukraine, we should provide large amounts of military aid to Ukraine. If only to drain Russian resources. If Putin wants to be drawn into a never-ending war in Ukraine, let’s help him with that cause. We only have to turn on the money printing machine. 

I think it’s clear I am hardly a Russia dove or fanboy.  Even without the nuclear threat, Russia’s military is built to do exactly this— win a land war in their “near abroad.”  European armies are built to defend their territory in depth against a Russian incursion.  Russian aircraft flying ahead of their air defenses, yes, would be targets for NATO air forces.  But Russia has invested where it counts and their S-400 is amazingly good and they have a bunch. A fight within range of Russian mobile air defense is not something U.S. planners relish. 

[Txzen 498]

On 1/26/2022 at 4:07 PM, 956 Worldwide said:

 Timothy Snyder’s book “Bloodlands” is magisterial...

Thanks for this reference. Unaware of the book or the author, which is odd as his focus area is straight in my interests. 

[Nolacycling 893]

Are the Irish Fishermen still intimidating the Ruskies? So awesome.

[nineliveslost 2710]

i don't know how the Russians back down. Russian blood supplies and medical reserves moved to border 

 

Ukraine Russia news: Latest as Moscow moves military blood supplies to border | The Independent

 

Shits going to go live as soon as the ground freezes 

[atomheartbevo 89447]

2 hours ago, nineliveslost said:

i don't know how the Russians back down. Russian blood supplies and medical reserves moved to border 

Ukraine Russia news: Latest as Moscow moves military blood supplies to border | The Independent

Shits going to go live as soon as the ground freezes 

Good to see they are trying to de-escalate the situation.

Oh.

[Telegraph_it 3354]

I mean if 22 wants to compete with 21 and 20 then this is a strong opening. 
 

Omicron was a tad tame. 

[atomheartbevo 89447]

28 minutes ago, Telegraph_it said:

I mean if 22 wants to compete with 21 and 20 then this is a strong opening. 
 

Omicron was a tad tame. 

[Ghost of LL 15492]

Lavrov today said that sanctions designed to cut Russia off from the global financial system (i.e., SWIFT) would be the equivalent to cutting off diplomatic relations.

And in diplomatic parlance, "cutting off diplomatic relations" is a synonym for war.

[Hefeweizen 5307]

1 minute ago, Ghost of LL said:

Lavrov today said that sanctions designed to cut Russia off from the global financial system (i.e., SWIFT) would be the equivalent to cutting off diplomatic relations.

And in diplomatic parlance, "cutting off diplomatic relations" is a synonym for war.

Oh it's war.  They have moved hospitals and blood up to the border.  I listened to a great WSJ podcast on Putin's motivations including the 7000 word essay he wrote and they talked at length about the Russian Orthodox Church and the impact the schism of the Ukrainian Orthodox leaving in 2019 has had.  Ukraine is gone, but he's not going to let her leave peacefully.

[atomheartbevo 89447]

5 minutes ago, Hefeweizen said:

I listened to a great WSJ podcast on Putin's motivations including the 7000 word essay he wrote and they talked at length about the Russian Orthodox Church and the impact the schism of the Ukrainian Orthodox leaving in 2019 has had.  Ukraine is gone, but he's not going to let her leave peacefully.

And Putin is ironically helping to forge the Ukrainian identity whose existence many questioned.

[Ghost of LL 15492]

10 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

Lavrov today said that sanctions designed to cut Russia off from the global financial system (i.e., SWIFT) would be the equivalent to cutting off diplomatic relations.

And in diplomatic parlance, "cutting off diplomatic relations" is a synonym for war.

No--it's war against the United States.

[4doorsMoreWhores 107]

23 hours ago, Hook1997 said:

No CR but what does this look like under Trump or does it even happen?  @Shady Ray @956 Worldwide    Not looking for political comments by others just their opinion, also not a fan of Trump fan or his arrogance but just a what if question for these two so let’s keep it non CR if we can.  Just would like to know from them how this would be different in their opinion without going to CR.

You could PM them

[atomheartbevo 89447]

This is still just so crazy/bizarre.  

While he knows he won't get into a military conflict with NATO and the US, and can get away with a lot, Putin's BMDs have got to be getting pretty angsty - if things go sideways with an invasion of Ukraine, whether it's the EU cutting off Russia, or the West bogging Russia down in a a well-funded and well-supplied insurgency, neither one of those things will play well at home.  It could put a lot of Russians out-of-work in the streets, which is never good for the leadership/rich folks in Russia.

And cutting off the monetary exchanges/buyers/etc. will piss off the BMDs.  I would imagine that it wouldn't take much to hurt a lot of those guys.

On the one hand, he's supposed to be this smart, scheming, forward-thinking Machiavellian leader, but on the other hand he keeps showing his hand, and he keeps doing the things that are counter-productive - he's pushing Finland and Sweden towards NATO, he's creating a national Ukrainian identity (and unifying the non-Russian fans in Ukraine), and he's justifying the existence of NATO.

And none of this will reverse the Baltic nations having joined NATO.  That ship sailed years ago.

Just fucking bizarre.  Like a little kid who knows that touching a hot stove will burn him, but is still hell-bent on doing it anyways.

[InkaUtexas 25518]

Had not seen this until tonight. Cyber tit for tat coming at us. 

 

[elfenix 34171]

[SimonBolivar 10931]

16 minutes ago, Bravo said:

 because I side is lying. 

I'm sure both are.

[atomheartbevo 89447]

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220128-russia-loses-a-million-people-in-historic-population-fall

Quote

 Russia's population declined by more than one million people in 2021, the statistics agency Rosstat reported Friday, a historic drop not seen since the collapse of the Soviet Union. 

Ongoing demographic woes have been exacerbated by the pandemic with Rosstat figures showing more than 660,000 had died with coronavirus since health officials recorded the first case in the country.

The new figures continue a downward trend from the previous year when Russia's population fell by more than half a million.

Adding Crimea offset that, but if that trend continues, taking in a few million Russian-leaning Ukrainians could help out, but that's a helluva long game.  I expect that out of the Chinese, not the Russians.  

[InkaUtexas 25518]

The DUMA announced separatists can join the Russian Army as regulars. So that might be their plan. 

 

[MissingInAction 24822]

Never fight a land war in Asia.

[Fudge Nuggets 19151]

On 1/27/2022 at 2:21 PM, CHIEF said:

Thus they will be protected by members of NATO, and an attack on them will be defended as would any attack on any NATO member (Germany, France, UK, or USA).

Bet it wouldn't.

[Fudge Nuggets 19151]

14 hours ago, Hefeweizen said:

Oh it's war.  They have moved hospitals and blood up to the border.  I listened to a great WSJ podcast on Putin's motivations including the 7000 word essay he wrote and they talked at length about the Russian Orthodox Church and the impact the schism of the Ukrainian Orthodox leaving in 2019 has had.  Ukraine is gone, but he's not going to let her leave peacefully.

Putin doesn't give a fuck about any Church unless they are funneling money into his bank accounts.

[SimonBolivar 10931]

Well Jack Posobiec would never lie, so it has to be true!

[956 Worldwide 34443]

7 minutes ago, Bravo said:

Not verified as it is anonymous WH source but interesting if true. 

 

Jack Posobiec the pizza gate guy? FFS, man. 

[956 Worldwide 34443]

Putting his stuff here is kind of thread shitting because he’s a known liar and that doesn’t change just because not everything he says is a lie.  

I’m not gonna go CR out of CR, but this has been a good thread where some people who actually know shit about fuck can offer reasonable and sometimes differing interpretations based on facts. 

[956 Worldwide 34443]

14 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

This is still just so crazy/bizarre.  

While he knows he won't get into a military conflict with NATO and the US, and can get away with a lot, Putin's BMDs have got to be getting pretty angsty - if things go sideways with an invasion of Ukraine, whether it's the EU cutting off Russia, or the West bogging Russia down in a a well-funded and well-supplied insurgency, neither one of those things will play well at home.  It could put a lot of Russians out-of-work in the streets, which is never good for the leadership/rich folks in Russia.

And cutting off the monetary exchanges/buyers/etc. will piss off the BMDs.  I would imagine that it wouldn't take much to hurt a lot of those guys.

On the one hand, he's supposed to be this smart, scheming, forward-thinking Machiavellian leader, but on the other hand he keeps showing his hand, and he keeps doing the things that are counter-productive - he's pushing Finland and Sweden towards NATO, he's creating a national Ukrainian identity (and unifying the non-Russian fans in Ukraine), and he's justifying the existence of NATO.

And none of this will reverse the Baltic nations having joined NATO.  That ship sailed years ago.

Just fucking bizarre.  Like a little kid who knows that touching a hot stove will burn him, but is still hell-bent on doing it anyways.

Agree with nearly all of this take, the one caveat I’d say is that Putin doesn’t have BMDs.  BMDs have Putin.  Where Putin has been a mastermind is in the creation of a vertical of power within Russian society where no actual or potential alternate power centers exist.  You can trace this back the Mikhail Khodorkovsky trial and imprisonment, where Putin sent a message to all of Russia’s oligarchs had the choice to leave, bend the knee or go to a labor camp.  It was extremely cagey to start here— oligarchs were not particularly sympathetic targets and no Russian could muster the strength to care about a corrupt vulture post-Soviet capitalist being sent to jail even if he was targeted for other reasons and even if the trial was a farce. 
 

From there Putin moved on to other potential rally points.  Media fell first (being careful not to touch Ekho Moskvy so that Putin fanboys could say “but Ekho Moskvy!”). Then on to “foreign NGOs” and then on to completely domestic NGOs to include Memorial, the largest human rights NGO in the country and the protector of Soviet-era memories.  
 

Putin is almost certainly Russia’s wealthiest man if not the world’s although it’s impossible to know to the extent of his holdings.  He got most of them by going to the billionaires that stayed and saying “gimme.” He has eliminated the shadowy siloviki class within the power ministries and agencies as semi-independent actors and has total control of Russia’s military, law enforcement, and intelligence structures. He has consolidated his direct control over the regions and large cities with the notable exception of Chechnya, which has never been tamed. 
 

In short, the fate of Russia’s oligarchs is linked directly with that of Putin’s, just like the aristocrats under the tsar of all Russias. Western kings were restrained by their uppity nobles, Russian nobles were crushed and kept in line by their tsar.  Which is why we SHOULD believe Putin when he expresses fear of “color revolutions” because that kind of direct, unrestrained anger from the populace is currently the only genuine threat to his authority. 

[Homercles 10205]

35 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Putting his stuff here is kind of thread shitting because he’s a known liar and that doesn’t change just because not everything he says is a lie.  

I’m not gonna go CR out of CR, but this has been a good thread where some people who actually know shit about fuck can offer reasonable and sometimes differing interpretations based on facts. 

Bravo seems pretty intent on bringing up specific politics to smear Biden or otherwise stir the pot, with those Twitter ‘just asking questions maybe there is something to this’ and I sure hope we can keep it out of CR…glad no one is taking the bait because this thread has been excellent. 

[bluto 4893]

Gtfo with pizzagate Twitter shit. Fuck off trying to shit on one of the only decent threads on the whole board, toss up some mike lindell hot takes while you’re at it. Just fuck off

[Enchubben 5509]

^thats the exact kind of post that adds zero value to the thread and purposefully stirs the pot infinitely more than a rumor about Ukraine from some random shitty Twitter hack you don’t like. You don’t like his posts, then neg him, report him or ignore him. 

[Enchubben 5509]

Just now, Bravo said:

Report me for linking to a post about Ukraine I openly admitted to sure of validity? 

I wouldn’t. I’m just saying spare me the commentary on the ability to post a certain Twitter source.

In an alternative universe people would choose to comment on the actual content of the tweet. That’s the world I want to live in.

[956 Worldwide 34443]

8 minutes ago, Enchubben said:

I wouldn’t. I’m just saying spare me the commentary on the ability to post a certain Twitter source.

In an alternative universe people would choose to comment on the actual content of the tweet. That’s the world I want to live in.

There’s not a lot to comment on.  If a rumor does pop up, Posobiec is right and if it doesn’t then…Well it was going to happen.  There also isn’t a Ukrainian politician around that hasn’t been accused of being Kremlin compromised at one point or another, Zelensky is no exception.  So the material is already floating around, and since Klein was going to “leak” that means that even if it’s not tied to him, it’s just evidence of his leaker skills. 

The Tweet is part of the self-licking ice cream cone that is the alt-lite Twittersphere and isn’t really about Ukraine.

[TwiceHorn 31280]

On 1/27/2022 at 3:45 PM, Cacti said:

You—and other posters—paint a dire picture concerning the future of Ukraine, even if Russia doesn’t invade. This article supports the pessimism.

Ukraine is the hollow man of Europe

 

Has Ukraine always been a shitshow?  I don't know much of its history, except that it was the "breadbasket of Europe" around WWII, has been kind of a hockey puck between European and Western Asian powers and peoples. But then so has a lot of that region.

[956 Worldwide 34443]

23 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

Has Ukraine always been a shitshow?  I don't know much of its history, except that it was the "breadbasket of Europe" around WWII, has been kind of a hockey puck between European and Western Asian powers and peoples. But then so has a lot of that region.

It’s hard to find a time in Ukrainian history where it hasn’t been home to brushfire or big wars and it’s hard to find any real time when it has been an independent political entity or even fully contained within one.  The name of the country itself is the Slavic root word for “borderland/area” and it was viewed as such by the Poles, Austrians, Russians, and even Hungarians. For most of recorded time, Ukrainians have been peasants under Polish, Austrian, Hungarian, or Russian aristocracy or semi-nomadic/semi-bandits (Cossacks in the Zaparozhian Sich) on the periphery of Europe.  The defining moment in Ukraine’s history was when one of those semi-bandit hetmen invited Russia to come to his aid against the Poles, trading one overlord for a worse one. 
 

The collapsing birth rate is new— a legacy of Soviet style family planning and most of all uncertainty.  Being right at the periphery of Europe and being for the most part “good” immigrants is good for Ukrainians but bad for Ukraine. It’s easy to leave, easy to integrate, and the EU states need labor. Russians in the bordering countries are seen as distasteful “big bizness” shady characters with dirty money. Ukrainians are seen more as hard working, simple, occupying low wage and manual jobs (or exotic dancers) and at worst, a little petty crime like smuggling contraband cigarettes. 

[Cacti 191]

30 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

Has Ukraine always been a shitshow?

I’ll defer to other, better informed posters to answer this question, but if corruption or incompetence doesn’t cripple Ukraine; or if civil war doesn’t tear them apart; then it appears that in the longer term, demographics will be their downfall.  

Quote

(Ukarine) has more citizens over 65 years of age than working-age people between 20 and 65.

NM. I see @956 Worldwide replied.

[elfenix 34171]

so, if poland exists at the pleasure of germany and russia, ukraine, then, exists at the pleasure of russia, poland, austria, hungary, and, by extension, germany. 

seems like something to explore in victoria 2. 

[SimonBolivar 10931]

2 minutes ago, elfenix said:

 

seems like something to explore in victoria 2. 

Victoria III has been announced!

Edited January 29, 2022 by SimonBolivar

[956 Worldwide 34443]

5 minutes ago, Cacti said:

I’ll defer to other, better informed posters to answer this question, but if corruption or incompetence doesn’t cripple Ukraine; or if civil war doesn’t tear them apart; then it appears that in the longer term, demographics will be their downfall.  

NM. I see @956 Worldwide replied.

Important to note that Russia’s demographics are not a hell of a lot better and that Russia also gets a little bit of a tweak in that department from a significant Muslim minority (not just Chechens).  Russian military planners have been making concerted efforts to artificially ensure the young men in arms are more Russian than the general population of young men, too. It’s a long-term issue for them as well. 

[bolverk 29399]

10 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Important to note that Russia’s demographics are not a hell of a lot better and that Russia also gets a little bit of a tweak in that department from a significant Muslim minority (not just Chechens).  Russian military planners have been making concerted efforts to artificially ensure the young men in arms are more Russian than the general population of young men, too. It’s a long-term issue for them as well. 

Demographics don't look good for either of them.

[TwiceHorn 31280]

On 1/28/2022 at 1:23 AM, 956 Worldwide said:

No CR but it’s hard to tell.  I do think we’d be far less active and effective at coordinating with allies on a common response and keeping multitrack diplomacy open.  Putin’s preference to only deal with the U.S. and cut deals between the big men would likely have appealed to DJT so you would see a lot more bilateral with Russia talks and less among friends, resulting in an even more haphazard Western response and a leadership void.  And there would be a lot of chaotic messaging from the various U.S. agencies and players because DJT would announce things on the fly. 

Agreed.

I might guess that Trump would find an isolationist policy to be politically expedient as well as "fitting" his apparent disregard for allies and affinity for Putin, assuming those things are accurate.

[956 Worldwide 34443]

Biden has announced that we “will” be placing more troops in Eastern Europe in the near term. These would almost certainly be deployed as part of multinational NATO detachments.  The host governments will need to agree. Some could possibly be directed north to the Baltics but on the ground, the chatter is all about Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, and Romania.  Without getting into too much inside baseball, Poland and Romania would likely be thrilled.  Hungary would probably want them as well.  In Slovakia the current government would want them, but the opposition has a strong base of populism and anti-Americanism to draw on and will make it a political fight.

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/01/28/biden-move-troops-eastern-europe-00003426

One thing that isn’t getting enough play is the potential impact on migrant flows.  A serious conflict could easily send enough people West to destabilize a small country like Slovakia. 

[Telegraph_it 3354]

53 minutes ago, bolverk said:

Demographics don't look good for either of them.

Yea that’s not ideal. One of my favorite classes I took at UT was a class about demographics. It was fascinating. 
 

The professor basically said Arab spring would happen about 6-12 months before it did and said Russia and China were in trouble starting in 20s for Russia and mid 30s for China. 

[Parliament 14138]

That surplus of <35 women is gonna drive down the price of eastern European wives.  Soon they will be within reach of even the lowliest Shagster.

[Herbie Hancock 7306]

That surplus of

Rocko incoming in 3…2…1….

[InkaUtexas 25518]

1 hour ago, Herbie Hancock said:

Rocko incoming in 3…2…1….

Driving the corvette across Poland and I write this with pay stub in hand. 

[RDCanecutter 26275]

4 hours ago, Parliament said:

That surplus of <35 women is gonna drive down the price of eastern European wives.  Soon they will be within reach of even the lowliest Shagster.