Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[InkaUtexas 25223]

1 minute ago, RDCanecutter said:

I had all the hippy smells except weed. Was probably sweating Celis.

Oh, so you were the patchouli dude.

[RDCanecutter 26169]

Just now, InkaUtexas said:

Oh, so you were the patchouli dude.

Is that a toe fungus? If so, yeah.

[InkaUtexas 25223]

6 minutes ago, RDCanecutter said:

Is that a toe fungus? If so, yeah.

Blame the celis.

[RDCanecutter 26169]

1 minute ago, InkaUtexas said:

Blame the celis.

To bring it back on topic, I think I got it from wearing wet boots for a week in a monsooned-out Guard drill. At one point we were camped on top of our M113s trying to dry our rotting chigger-motel bodies in an hour of sunshine.

Back to thread: Who thinks

A. Ukrainians pull back bc it was basically a raid

B. Ukrainians will let Russians assemble to counterattack, then blow in from both flanks with more stuff to encircle them

C. Ukrainians will hold center, and attack on the left to overrun Belarus

D. Something else (say what it is)

[InkaUtexas 25223]

I wonder if they realized they could get this deep. if they can hold, B.

Really, I think A.

[Judge Roybeanbag 11770]

8 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

I wonder if they realized they could get this deep. if they can hold, B.

Really, I think A.

I think aside from the railroad, they want to take the nuclear plant.  Then use it to get the Russians out of Zaphorizia.  

[atomheartbevo 89295]

Holy shit,  if you want to see how M777 barrels are made, artillery shells, etc.

 

[Bevo 13467]

3 hours ago, RDCanecutter said:

To bring it back on topic, I think I got it from wearing wet boots for a week in a monsooned-out Guard drill. At one point we were camped on top of our M113s trying to dry our rotting chigger-motel bodies in an hour of sunshine.

Back to thread: Who thinks

A. Ukrainians pull back bc it was basically a raid

B. Ukrainians will let Russians assemble to counterattack, then blow in from both flanks with more stuff to encircle them

C. Ukrainians will hold center, and attack on the left to overrun Belarus

D. Something else (say what it is)

Sun Tzu wasn't a fan of pincer moves. He believed when the enemy was encircled that it would fight harder. Instead, he preferred to let the enemy think there was an avenue for escape and then when the enemy was retreating he would hit it from the sides.

Edited August 8 by Bevo

[atomheartbevo 89295]

15 minutes ago, Bevo said:

He believed when the enemy was encircled that it would fight harder. Instead, he preferred to let the enemy think there was an avenue for escape and then when the enemy was retreating he would hit it from the sides.

Applies equally to college student - those little shits will fight like hell if they think they are trapped.

[KYHorn 16751]

 

 

[KYHorn 16751]

Spoiler

 

"Your brigade commander's wife waits for you in the bath"

 

[Parliament 14074]

7 hours ago, RDCanecutter said:

To bring it back on topic, I think I got it from wearing wet boots for a week in a monsooned-out Guard drill. At one point we were camped on top of our M113s trying to dry our rotting chigger-motel bodies in an hour of sunshine.

Back to thread: Who thinks

A. Ukrainians pull back bc it was basically a raid

B. Ukrainians will let Russians assemble to counterattack, then blow in from both flanks with more stuff to encircle them

C. Ukrainians will hold center, and attack on the left to overrun Belarus

D. Something else (say what it is)

Take what they can before Russian reinforcements arrive.  Hold what they can when they do.  Force Russia to level their OWN cities with glide bombs and arty.

When the fight gets too big, just sneak back to Ukraine.  And look for the next soft spot to invade.

[Gatorubet 29968]

33 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Take what they can before Russian reinforcements arrive.  Hold what they can when they do.  Force Russia to level their OWN cities with glide bombs and arty.

When the fight gets too big, just sneak back to Ukraine.  And look for the next soft spot to invade.

The tactical situation is fascinating, but what stands out to me is a public relations standpoint of seeing Ukraine attack Russia. First, the Chef, and now the Ukrainians show how easy it is.

The contract with Putin in Russian citizens is that they will put up with a whole lot, but it is absolutely essential that he provides security. If he can’t do that, then he’s not feared - and if he’s not feared, he’s no longer going to be in Power.

 

[BamaATL 16592]

10 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

The tactical situation is fascinating, but what stands out to me is a public relations standpoint of seeing Ukraine attack Russia. First, the Chef, and now the Ukrainians show how easy it is.

The contract with Putin in Russian citizens is that they will put up with a whole lot, but it is absolutely essential that he provides security. If he can’t do that, then he’s not feared - and if he’s not feared, he’s no longer going to be in Power.

 

I wonder if the thought is, preparing an offensive against the Russian fortified lines has proven incredibly difficult (at least within Ukraine), especially given the mine fields.  By advancing here, where there don't appear to be dense mine fields, the Ukrainians felt they could capture significant territory, and perhaps get Russia to pull men and material from the Karkhiv front?  Additionally, if they can manage to hold it for any amount of time, it thins Russian resources that can be diverted to Ukraine.  So is this a start of a one-two counter punch sequence?  If they detect any sort of troop movement in the Karkhiv front to reinforce Kursk, do they then make a move there as well.  If they can take an hold territory, quite frankly I think that's smart, because at the end of the day, that's a real bargaining chip to get back at least some of their territory if this enters some sort of mediation.  

[Bevo 13467]

4 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Applies equally to college student - those little shits will fight like hell if they think they are trapped.

 

For sure, that's why you have to give the hard tests before the last drop date. Afterwards, and those little shits will be lined up outside your door.

[BamaATL 16592]

Another thing to consider, I read the other day that there were intercepted calls from the Russian Railroad honchos which indicated that they were concerned about a serious shutdown of the system due to, and I promise I'm not making this up, ball bearings (cue Fletch).  Another thought may well be that by doing this, it will further exhaust an already extremely strained Russian logistics system.   Basically, they may well have Intel that Russia has no real meaningful way to respond to this incursion, beyond air power, at least not in any meaningful quick way.  Given that Russian pilots are terrified of getting anywhere near the Ukrainians due to hand held anti-air, that may well be moot as well.  In an effort to bolster or even rally a defense for Kursk, the Russians may well completely starve other areas of ammo, food, etc. 

Someone mentioned Sun Tzu above, and one thing he was big on fighting on the ground you want to fight on (classification of terrain, I believe he called it).   

[BamaATL 16592]

Also

 

 

[The Dog 43692]

[Parliament 14074]

32 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

Another thing to consider, I read the other day that there were intercepted calls from the Russian Railroad honchos which indicated that they were concerned about a serious shutdown of the system due to, and I promise I'm not making this up, ball bearings (cue Fletch).  Another thought may well be that by doing this, it will further exhaust an already extremely strained Russian logistics system.   Basically, they may well have Intel that Russia has no real meaningful way to respond to this incursion, beyond air power, at least not in any meaningful quick way.  Given that Russian pilots are terrified of getting anywhere near the Ukrainians due to hand held anti-air, that may well be moot as well.  In an effort to bolster or even rally a defense for Kursk, the Russians may well completely starve other areas of ammo, food, etc. 

Someone mentioned Sun Tzu above, and one thing he was big on fighting on the ground you want to fight on (classification of terrain, I believe he called it).   

Iirc the ball bearing supply problem was especially affecting the locomotives they’re so dependent on for moving materiel.  Friggen Russia, in 2024, can’t even make a goddamn steel bearing.

ETA

That’s a bit of a problem but at least we have friends (Mexico) who will sell us good bearings.

Edited August 8 by Parliament

[Ghost of LL 15321]

8 hours ago, RDCanecutter said:

To bring it back on topic, I think I got it from wearing wet boots for a week in a monsooned-out Guard drill. At one point we were camped on top of our M113s trying to dry our rotting chigger-motel bodies in an hour of sunshine.

Back to thread: Who thinks

A. Ukrainians pull back bc it was basically a raid

B. Ukrainians will let Russians assemble to counterattack, then blow in from both flanks with more stuff to encircle them

C. Ukrainians will hold center, and attack on the left to overrun Belarus

D. Something else (say what it is)

I don't think it's a "raid."  I think it's more what you would describe as a "reconnaissance-in-force."  It seems more designed to obtain information on Russian dispositions and reaction as a prelude to potential future offensive operations than a mere raid would be.

I also can't help but think that it's an effort to draw Russia's ground-attack aircraft into battle on a predictable front for the Ukrainians to test out the air-to-air capabilities of their new F-16s.

[Trey3216 15319]

10 hours ago, RDCanecutter said:

The last person I want with his finger on the nukes is some damn poet.

What about Warrior Poets???

[The Dog 43692]

 

[Chad Fuck 17448]

I don't think it's a "raid."  I think it's more what you would describe as a "reconnaissance-in-force."  It seems more designed to obtain information on Russian dispositions and reaction as a prelude to potential future offensive operations than a mere raid would be.
I also can't help but think that it's an effort to draw Russia's ground-attack aircraft into battle on a predictable front for the Ukrainians to test out the air-to-air capabilities of their new F-16s.

Yes.

The REAL invasion is coming at Pas de Calais!

 

“Go where they aren’t” seems like a good play.

[Parliament 14074]

He makes a good point.

ETA

Whole thread is money.

Edited August 8 by Parliament

[The Dog 43692]

Eight brigades in Russia with more to come:

 

[Viper 11987]

New maps just dropped 

 

[The Dog 43692]

I think it is pretty clear that Russia is solidly fucked at this point, and there is basically nothing that could happen from this point forward that will ever save face and make up for what has happened already. Even if Ukraine withdrew all forces right now, this is a devastating blow to Putin.

[PTINS 3436]

From the links, the map shows Russian fortifications in the area consist of anti-tank ditches & obstacles and strongpoints. There are not multiple layers of trenches and other infantry fighting positions. In the map, the most significant fortifications in the area.

 

Following the Vince's strategy and Prigozihn's lead, Run to Daylight, it looks like Ukraine choose to run straight north up the road rather than deal with the Russian fortifications along the east-west lines.  The orange icons in the plot below show the various towns mentioned in the past few days, with Sudzha to the south and Kursk to the northeast. The 700' plateau depicts the high ground in the middle, overlooking the rail roads and highways, and the Kurskaya Nuclear Power Plant.

Short term, this appears to give Ukraine "influence" of an area with some intrinsic value without spend or committing significant resources. Gaining access and/or control of the Nuke is a hell of a bargaining chip, given that both countries are going into the winter short of power generation capacity. The Urengoy gas pipeline transiting the area is idle for the most part and is already controlled by Ukraine, so taking control of the Sudzha Meter station is symbolic more than anything.

The Cockroach factor is huge. The psychological effects of the leaflets, air raid sirens, e- warfare, and Ukraine flags over Russian territory, etc. will make the natives restless.  Ukraine does not appear to have many assets in the area, but it will be a bitch for Russia get them out.  How will Russian force them out? Bombs and rocket attacks on their own soil & people? Giving the F-16's a play pen void of air defenses? I would think the half-life for any Russia troops brought into the area is going to be pretty damn short.

 

 

[b_p 452]

[Armybrat 40630]

3 hours ago, Bevo said:

 

For sure, that's why you have to give the hard tests before the last drop date. Afterwards, and those little shits will be lined up outside your door.

I was first in line.

[DaggerHorns 3045]

From February of 2022….and he still believed.

[Chad Fuck 17448]

34 minutes ago, The Dog said:

I think it is pretty clear that Russia is solidly fucked at this point, and there is basically nothing that could happen from this point forward that will ever save face and make up for what has happened already. Even if Ukraine withdrew all forces right now, this is a devastating blow to Putin.

That's what we thought when the chef made his Moscow thunder run too, but Vlad still hung on.  I mean, I want him gone as well, and this is a very weak look for a supposed tough guy.  However, he's shown remarkable staying power.

[atomheartbevo 89295]

11 hours ago, RDCanecutter said:

To bring it back on topic, I think I got it from wearing wet boots for a week in a monsooned-out Guard drill. At one point we were camped on top of our M113s trying to dry our rotting chigger-motel bodies in an hour of sunshine.

Back to thread: Who thinks

A. Ukrainians pull back bc it was basically a raid

B. Ukrainians will let Russians assemble to counterattack, then blow in from both flanks with more stuff to encircle them

C. Ukrainians will hold center, and attack on the left to overrun Belarus

D. Something else (say what it is)

I think it’s too big and too well organized/coordinated to be a simple raid.  There are videos of Ukrainian engineering vehicles mixed in with the troops which meant the Ukrainians were prepared to move through fortifications (even if it was a bunch of logs or vehicles hastily thrown across highways), and they expanded this attack extremely fast, which meant they were ready with reinforcements.

It’s possible it’s “B” or as @Ghost of LL pointed out maybe a reconnaissance-in-force.  Or both.

Some thoughts 

• It’s pretty stunning that Ukraine built up this force and made this attack, given the battlefield drone surveillance situation.  At the least, I would have thought the Russians would be watching their satellites. But maybe they are having problems.
• Putin is not worried about NATO invading.through Ukraine if the defenses along the border near an important area (Kursk) are that thin.
• Their aerial situation is far worse than anyone expected - either they are having problems getting jets and helicopters airborne, or they are terrified of losing them to Ukrainian air defenses. If there was going to be a situation where they pull out all the stops and get everything they can in the air, and grab any upright soldiers and throw them in a helicopter and rush them towards Kursk, this would seem to be it.
• Their wheeled transport situation is far worse than anyone expected - see above, again, if there was going to be a situation where you just start throwing soldiers into Scooby Doo vans or wheeled BTRs, and rushing them towards Kursk, this seems to be it. I get using golf carts on the battlefield, given the drone situation, but this is inside of Russia.
• These Ukrainians are functioning like a western force - well-trained, acting independently (taking the initiative) and with combined arms. I think a lot of these troops were probably trained by NATO.
• Putin may have mobilized/conscripted far fewer troops than Russia announced, if they are spread this thin.
• Relating to the above, Russia may have far fewer men in uniform than they claim.
• I’m surprised that they announced this on state TV - that means the Russian leaders didn’t feel they could control the flow of information through Russian social media and had to get ahead of it, because this is not something Putin and Co. would  willingly announce - some claim this is being used by Putin to justify the war, but this action breaks the social contract Putin has with the people. There is nothing positive about announcing this on state TV.  It also runs the risk of some areas of Russia trying to break away if they think Putin is weak.

I thought at first this was meant to force the Russians to move troops from other areas and force them to spread their troops out even more as they would need to have troops inside of Russia along the border.  That could relieve a lot of pressure on Ukrainian forces and maybe even make the Russians pull back from some areas they were on the offensive in.  It could still be the case.

But damn, this thing was big and well-organized and had to be hard to keep secret. 

I don’t think this is enough for the Ukrainians to sue for peace, because Russia won’t give up Crimea unless Ukrainians have driven them out and made Sevastopol completely untenable for Russian ships.

The thought that this is a run to cut rail supply lines and isolate some Russian forces and capture or kill them and maybe even seize the NPP and shut off power to a big chunk of the Kursk area is in the mix.

One thing that’s bugging me is wondering if this is the culmination of Ukraine thoroughly wrecking Russian air defenses across the board and forcing them to both move their local air defenses back (missiles), but also keep their aircraft, including helicopters, in the rear and away from the front lines. I assumed that was being done for the F-16s, and it seems to soon for the F-16s to make an appearance (and they need more of them).

Edited August 8 by atomheartbevo

[The Dog 43692]

4 minutes ago, Chad Fuck said:

That's what we thought when the chef made his Moscow thunder run too, but Vlad still hung on.  I mean, I want him gone as well, and this is a very weak look for a supposed tough guy.  However, he's shown remarkable staying power.

I'm getting Tet vibes. The fact that Ukraine can launch an operation of this magnitude inside Russia shows that this war is now unwinnable for Putin. 

 

[The Dog 43692]

ETA confirmation from the Ukrainian side:

Edited August 8 by The Dog

[Parliament 14074]

Surly  worthy

[Bevo 13467]

18 minutes ago, The Dog said:

ETA confirmation from the Ukrainian side:

 

Bout a hundred in that first pic

[atomheartbevo 89295]

6 minutes ago, Bevo said:

Bout a hundred in that first pic

And there’s no way any of them are going to want to be released back to Russia - any border guards released back to Russia will be blamed and sent to the front lines…..which now appear to be the Russian border,

[AUS-97HORN 11578]

9 minutes ago, Bevo said:

 

Bout a hundred in that first pic

 

1 minute ago, atomheartbevo said:

And there’s no way any of them are going to want to be released back to Russia - any border guards released back to Russia will be blamed and sent to the front lines…..which now appear to be the Russian border,

you two both realize thats a 1991 pic showing Iraqi prisoners, right?

[SurlyGator 847]

Forget it, they're rolling.

[Pato del Muerto 52215]

18 minutes ago, AUS-97HORN said:

 

you two both realize thats a 1991 pic showing Iraqi prisoners, right?

Kursk doesn’t have a field of oil wells burning in the middle of the desert?

[Chad Fuck 17448]

24 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

And there’s no way any of them are going to want to be released back to Russia - any border guards released back to Russia will be blamed and sent to the front lines…..which now appear to be far inside the Russian border,

fify

[BamaATL 16592]

A bit of wish casting here, but if ever there was a perfect time for a Kerch Bridge demolition to happen, this would be it.  

[Bevo 13467]

25 minutes ago, AUS-97HORN said:

 

you two both realize thats a 1991 pic showing Iraqi prisoners, right?

 

No - Why the hell did they post it and talk about not being able to transport them all?

[BamaATL 16592]

Unconfirmed reports of the liquid natural gas metering station in Sudzha being destroyed, aforementioned choke point of Russian natural gas delivery to Europe.  

[Chad Fuck 17448]

3 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

A bit of wish casting here, but if ever there was a perfect time for a Kerch Bridge demolition to happen, this would be it.  

And more.  Clearly there aren't enough Russian troops to protect their borders.  So do they pull them from the other areas of operation and make those spots vulnerable to Ukrainian penetration?  Or take them from somewhere else within Russia itself?  The border with China, etc. and make themselves vulnerable there?

It's a great move by Ukraine.  

[Dahobbs 17314]

4 minutes ago, Bevo said:

 

No - Why the hell did they post it and talk about not being able to transport them all?

Two different posts. The Iraq pic was just to illustrate that he had a similar problem (too many prisoners) in Iraq. 

[Chad Fuck 17448]

4 minutes ago, Bevo said:

 

No - Why the hell did they post it and talk about not being able to transport them all?

"signed 1991 gulf war vet"

[atomheartbevo 89295]

27 minutes ago, AUS-97HORN said:

you two both realize thats a 1991 pic showing Iraqi prisoners, right?

Yeah, I assumed that was the point of him saying he was a Gulf War vet plus the desert/clouds of smoke.

But there was also video of about a hundred or so Russian POWs a few posts up.

4 minutes ago, Bevo said:

No - Why the hell did they post it and talk about not being able to transport them all?

We had problems transporting Iraqi POWs because they gave up in such large numbers, and did so quickly.  There were Iraqis surrendering to Apache gunships (which, to be fair, I would if I was in their situation).

Ukrainians moving that fast into Russia have the same problem, and they can’t risk freeing them.

[Pato del Muerto 52215]

14 minutes ago, Chad Fuck said:

And more.  Clearly there aren't enough Russian troops to protect their borders.  So do they pull them from the other areas of operation and make those spots vulnerable to Ukrainian penetration?  Or take them from somewhere else within Russia itself?  The border with China, etc. and make themselves vulnerable there?

It's a great move by Ukraine.  

Giant game of whack-a-mole?  Advance in the opposite direction as troops approach, then have other units do the same elsewhere?