Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[Viper 12109]

New cross border invasion location?

 

[Parliament 14260]

We need a “Hitler in the bunker” skit for this.

[atomheartbevo 89732]

 

[KYHorn 17076]

 

10 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

 

 

 

[atomheartbevo 89732]

"Tank ambush of the Russian Armed Forces destroyed in Kursk region!!! The Russian MoD showed a video, bragging about how tank crews “took up firing positions to destroy mobile armored groups of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the border area.” And literally an hour later, the Ukrainian side published a video of these tanks burning." Source: https://t.me/spb_gde/16071?single

[AUS-97HORN 11809]

8 hours ago, Viper said:

Bad news, the Russians already killed all the Ukrainian soldiers in Kursk

 

 

[Deej 76831]

And in other news, Billy Liucci proclaims aggy as the flagship university in Texas. 

[KYHorn 17076]

Awesome. Shows how well-planned this entire operation was

 

Edited August 10 by KYHorn

[BamaATL 16593]

2 hours ago, Viper said:

New cross border invasion location?

 

At this point, I'm wondering if the plan all along was to destroy the LNG station in Kursk, capture the Kursk NP plant, and trap the Northern Russian front by cutting/capturing Belgorod.  

[BamaATL 16593]

 

[Nivek 16945]

On 8/8/2024 at 3:09 AM, Bevo said:

Sun Tzu wasn't a fan of pincer moves. He believed when the enemy was encircled that it would fight harder. Instead, he preferred to let the enemy think there was an avenue for escape and then when the enemy was retreating he would hit it from the sides.

There is a reason for the development of pincer moves and how movement in general can contribute to the effectiveness of strategy.   I haven't read Sun Tzu in a long time, but I would caution on the rigidity of that thinking.  Sure there are examples of the Lost Battalion (WWI) and the Alamo which give credence to his claim, but the Battles of Marathon, Cannae, Hattin, Kiev (1941) all show significant success of this strategy.    

[KYHorn 17076]

Footage from the operation in the Kinburn Spit

 

The GUR releases video footage of a recent landing operation on the Kinburn Spit. They report that on August 9, 2024, Ukrainian special forces conducted a successful raid on the Russian-occupied Kinburn Spit, destroying six enemy armored vehicles and eliminating around 30 Russian soldiers. 

The operation involved multiple special units, supported by the Ukrainian Navy and other security forces. During the mission, Ukrainian forces attacked key Russian positions and raised the Ukrainian Military Intelligence flag near a landmark on the spit.

 

Edited August 10 by KYHorn

[BamaATL 16593]

8 minutes ago, Nivek said:

There is a reason for the development of pincer moves and how movement in general can contribute to the effectiveness of strategy.   I haven't read Sun Tzu in a long time, but I would caution on the rigidity of that thinking.  Sure there are examples of the Lost Battalion (WWI) and the Alamo which give credence to his claim, but the Battles of Marathon, Cannae, Hattin, Kiev (1941) all show significant success of this strategy.    

I like the timing of this as well, we only have about 6 weeks until raspustista (the mud), if the Ukrainians can cut supply to the North, the Russians will starve.  

[AUS-97HORN 11809]

5 different attacking salients?   fuck man. I am pretty sure the US wouldnt do that without being in battalion size (800-1k men) or larger per salient. avg American brigade contains  something like 4 battalions.  and you need at least that amount to hold the already taken territory in case of counter-attack

in US size, this is probably at least 2 brigades attacking... what we would call a half Division. 

[Ghost of LL 15539]

1 hour ago, KYHorn said:

Awesome. Shows how well-planned this entire operation was

 

That’s interesting. You don’t bring up engineering vehicles for a raid. They’re planning to stay a while.

[InkaUtexas 25989]

if they are planning on holding, yes, they need strength. If this is hit and run, speed and surprise can make you think there are more of them.

I think they start launching more of this, penetrate as far as they can ensure supply or retreat (strategic, not run away Holy Grail style) and keep the Russians guessing where is next.

 

[ABSR 5315]

1 hour ago, BamaATL said:

At this point, I'm wondering if the plan all along was to destroy the LNG station in Kursk, capture the Kursk NP plant, and trap the Northern Russian front by cutting/capturing Belgorod.  

I think controlling the LNG station is nice and they could threaten destruction, but I don’t think they will as the supply is to NATO nations and I believe the pipeline runs through Ukraine held territory so in theory they could have already destroyed it if they wanted.

The NP plant makes more sense, not that they would destroy it, but if they shut off distribution that would be huge.  And not something Russia could indiscriminately bomb unless they intend to make a huge catastrophe and blame Ukraine.  Doesn’t make sense to logical people…but Russia.

What this gives them is the ability to threaten or stop rail and road supplies to a large area of Russian held territory and create massive logistics failures which would eventually impact Russian combat capabilities and create weakness in other areas they could exploit.

From PR standpoint it is great too, and even if it does not achieve great long term military success, it has the possible effect similar to the Tet offensive in the Vietnam war.

[RPM 26322]

 

[BamaATL 16593]

35 minutes ago, ABSR said:

I think controlling the LNG station is nice and they could threaten destruction, but I don’t think they will as the supply is to NATO nations and I believe the pipeline runs through Ukraine held territory so in theory they could have already destroyed it if they wanted.

The NP plant makes more sense, not that they would destroy it, but if they shut off distribution that would be huge.  And not something Russia could indiscriminately bomb unless they intend to make a huge catastrophe and blame Ukraine.  Doesn’t make sense to logical people…but Russia.

What this gives them is the ability to threaten or stop rail and road supplies to a large area of Russian held territory and create massive logistics failures which would eventually impact Russian combat capabilities and create weakness in other areas they could exploit.

From PR standpoint it is great too, and even if it does not achieve great long term military success, it has the possible effect similar to the Tet offensive in the Vietnam war.

They blew up the LNG station 3 days ago, so that part of the deal is done.  

[Gatorubet 30246]

10 hours ago, Viper said:

Bad news, the Russians already killed all the Ukrainian soldiers in Kursk

 

[SL Xpress 7516]

1 hour ago, Nivek said:

There is a reason for the development of pincer moves and how movement in general can contribute to the effectiveness of strategy.   I haven't read Sun Tzu in a long time, but I would caution on the rigidity of that thinking.  Sure there are examples of the Lost Battalion (WWI) and the Alamo which give credence to his claim, but the Battles of Marathon, Cannae, Hattin, Kiev (1941) all show significant success of this strategy.    

It's a dumb thing to say. 

Encirclements and the propensity to overreach with encirclements are legitimate dangers, but the ability to completely annihilate the enemy force from all directions at once has proven over and over again to be a devastating strategy. But quote Sun Tzu and suddenly it's incontrovertible ancient wisdom. 

Like so many things, there's wisdom in both stances. Criticizing any and all pincer/encirclement maneuvers seems like a bold move, Cotton.

[B00M 6419]

5 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

It's a dumb thing to say. 

Encirclements and the propensity to overreach with encirclements are legitimate dangers, but the ability to completely annihilate the enemy force from all directions at once has proven over and over again to be a devastating strategy. But quote Sun Tzu and suddenly it's incontrovertible ancient wisdom. 

Like so many things, there's wisdom in both stances. Criticizing any and all pincer/encirclement maneuvers seems like a bold move, Cotton.

Weren’t like, hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of troops captured during WWII using encirclement tactics? 

And what was China, with all their ancient wisdom, doing during WWII? Oh…

Edited August 10 by B00M
I realize this is an unfair and shitty thing to dunk on China for lol

[Parliament 14260]

Maneuver warfare strategy talk not going away.  All you guys have made good points.  Can we skip the arguing and get back to listing all the ways Aggy sucks?

[Bevo 13579]

1 hour ago, ABSR said:

I think controlling the LNG station is nice and they could threaten destruction, but I don’t think they will as the supply is to NATO nations and I believe the pipeline runs through Ukraine held territory so in theory they could have already destroyed it if they wanted.

 

I predict this won't age well, not because I'm Nostradamus, but because the station has already bada boomed.

[BamaATL 16593]

 

[ABSR 5315]

10 minutes ago, Bevo said:

 

I predict this won't age well, not because I'm Nostradamus, but because the station has already bada boomed.

Second person saying this but I can’t find anything online t indicating this.  Not saying not true, but can you provide a link?   They have taken the station, but all reports I saw it was not destroyed by them.    Ukraine has launched strikes at other LNG stations and damaged or destroyed them.

[Harrison Stafford 3335]

 

PHOTO - Pravda — Kursk Oblast Compared to the 1943 Battle of Kursk—Because History Is a Great Marketing Tool

(August 10, 2024) — Russia’s national anti-terrorism committee has declared the launch of "counter-terror operations" in Belgorod, Bryansk, and Kursk. Apparently, this is not just about securing the border; it’s also about the safety of Russian citizens who are now under the watchful eye of emergency powers. These powers include restricting civilian movement, seizing vehicles, eavesdropping on phone calls, establishing no-go zones and generally turning a border skirmish into a full scale dystopian reality show.

The anti-terrorism committee has labeled Ukraine’s incursion a "terrorist attack," complete with claims of wounded civilians and destroyed homes. Of course, it’s always convenient to label anything unpleasant as terrorism—this tactic has been a staple of Kremlin playbooks since the days of the Soviet Union.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, however, has been vocal about the early successes of his troops. He insists that Russia needs to feel the sting of the full scale offensive it has been waging against Ukraine since February 2022.

Meanwhile, the propaganda units of Russia’s defense ministry are trying to outdo themselves in a contest of who can produce the most dramatic war footage of tank crews blasting away at supposed Ukrainian positions in Kursk.

Ever the dramatic storyteller, the Invasion Ministry already boasted about overnight air strikes and intercepting 26 Ukrainian drones, which sounds like a busy night in the Kremlin’s version of "Operation: Save Face."

[BamaATL 16593]

3 minutes ago, ABSR said:

Second person saying this but I can’t find anything online t indicating this.  Not saying not true, but can you provide a link?   They have taken the station, but all reports I saw it was not destroyed by them.    Ukraine has launched strikes at other LNG stations and damaged or destroyed them.

Only unconfirmed rumors at this point.  I would imagine that if this were in fact true, there would be pictures of it at this point.  Also, considering that it is generally agreed upon by both sides that Ukraine currently has control of the area, there isn't a reason to yet destroy that, rather you could turn it off.  Is it wired to be blown up, if the Ukrainians have to leave, my bet would be absolutely.  

[atomheartbevo 89732]

Where the hell is Russian close air support?  How are they not flinging every aircraft they have at this? How are they not flying hundred or troops in by helicopter and dropping them off ahead of advancing Ukrainians?

It’s almost as if the Ukrainians have some form of air superiority….

[BamaATL 16593]

1 minute ago, atomheartbevo said:

Where the hell is Russian close air support?  How are they not flinging every aircraft they have at this? How are they not flying hundred or troops in by helicopter and dropping them off ahead of advancing Ukrainians?

It’s almost as if the Ukrainians have some form of air superiority….

Combine that with the munitions destruction at the two fields this week, I think there are 2 things going on.

1.  The Russians are terrified of hand held anti-air, i.e. they can't fly into active range

2.  The Ukrainians, with this foreknowledge, destroyed much of the Russian glide bomb capability in the region.  

[Nivek 16945]

3 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Where the hell is Russian close air support?  How are they not flinging every aircraft they have at this? How are they not flying hundred or troops in by helicopter and dropping them off ahead of advancing Ukrainians?

It’s almost as if the Ukrainians have some form of air superiority….

probably getting expensive so they just want to send more meat.  

[SL Xpress 7516]

22 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

Combine that with the munitions destruction at the two fields this week, I think there are 2 things going on.

1.  The Russians are terrified of hand held anti-air, i.e. they can't fly into active range

2.  The Ukrainians, with this foreknowledge, destroyed much of the Russian glide bomb capability in the region.  

I think there's a lot of incompetence involved as well.

The Russians consistently demonstrate ossified organizational thinking, which is systemic given the priority of the ruling class to make sure the military can't usurp their power. 

When you're in an organization that prioritizes following the rules and protocol above all else, shifting priorities due to changing circumstances is a terrible weakness. I'm sure most if not all of us have experienced that within our lifetimes. We don't have to move to Russia. But this is organizational handicaps writ in full. 

BTW, being in an organization that doesn't do a good job of following rules and protocol has its own problems. 

If the Russian military is tasked with taking a specific objective, then the organization bends its organizational structure towards that objective. Supply lines shift resources there without thought about the needs of other areas or how they should be prioritized within the context of the objective. The objective becomes all. The future of the organization is not considered. So trainers are sent to the front lines. All available material is sent, regardless of the ability to replace or repair it. No one is making healthy organizational decisions, because the only good organizational decision is to make sure you're not blamed when things go awry. Which also means leadership is promoted and incentivized on the basis of a) not being a threat to superiors, b) the ability to follow orders and parrot the party line, and c) the ability to find scapegoats when things go wrong. Russia is not alone in featuring these dynamics. It's a very human quality. But their whole culture is built around it.  

I have not understood the military experts who have been perplexed about this operation, nor all the people writing articles featuring this perspective. To me it's seemed brilliant. To quote brilliant military strategist Willie Keeler, "hit the ball where they ain't." Make them shift priorities, resources, and objectives, because for them it's like turning around an aircraft carrier. 

Not to mention the insane political wins this is creating. Where else in this conflict could this many men and material have had this kind of impact on the conflict? It has seemed like a well run and well thought out operation. This has been much better than what transpired on the left bank of Dnipro trying to create a bridgehead there. Probably in part because Russia completely deprioritized the area thinking their nuclear arsenal would ensure the US and other allies would prevent the Ukrainians from running such an operation. 

The whole thing has been wonderful from my perspective. I hope the Ukranians continue to enjoy success with this. 

Edited August 10 by SL Xpress

[Gatorubet 30246]

9 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

I think there's a lot of incompetence involved as well.

The Russians consistently demonstrate ossified organizational thinking, which is systemic given the priority of the ruling class to make sure the military can't usurp their power. 

When you're in an organization that prioritizes following the rules and protocol above all else, shifting priorities due to changing circumstances is a terrible weakness. I'm sure most if not all of us have experienced that within our lifetimes. We don't have to move to Russia. But this is organizational handicaps writ in full. 

BTW, being in an organization that doesn't do a good job of following rules and protocol has its own problems. 

If the Russian military is tasked with taking a specific objective, then the organization bends its organizational structure towards that objective. Supply lines shift resources there without thought about the needs of other areas or how they should be prioritized within the context of the objective. The objective becomes all. The future of the organization is not considered. So trainers are sent to the front lines. All available material is sent, regardless of the ability to replace or repair it. No one is making healthy organizational decisions, because the only good organizational decision is to make sure you're not blamed when things go awry. Which also means leadership is promoted and incentivized on the basis of a) not being a threat to superiors, b) the ability to follow orders and parrot the party line, and c) the ability to find scapegoats when things go wrong. Russia is not alone in featuring these dynamics. It's a very human quality. But their whole culture is built around it.  I have not understood the military experts who have been perplexed about this operation, nor all the people writing articles featuring this perspective. To me it's seemed brilliant. To quote brilliant military strategist Willie Keeler, "hit the ball where they ain't."

Wee Willie quote rep. 

[bolverk 29687]

I don't believe this has been posted yet, so my apologies if it has.

https://english.nv.ua/nation/drone-strike-disables-kursk-npp-substation-russian-media-50441787.html

Several settlements in Kursk Oblast were left without electricity after a UAV struck a power substation near the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant, Russian media outlet Important Stories reported on Aug. 9.

Alexei Smirnov, the Russian governor of Kursk Oblast, said that a fire broke out at “a transformer substation” after “debris from a Ukrainian fixed-wing UAV” crashed into it.

The power outage has affected the town of Kurchatov, where the Kursk NPP is located, as well as the settlements of Volokno, Vorozhnevo, and Priamitsyno. Locals have complained on social media about disruptions in water supply.

Additionally, the repost states that public transport in Kursk City has been down for over four hours, possibly due to an electricity deficit in the region.

[Deej 76831]

ERCOT: "Hold my beer!"

[bolverk 29687]

 

 

Maybe it's not so smart to post your movements (no idea if it's the same convoy).

[tx 3 putt 77071]

[Dahobbs 17625]

27 minutes ago, bolverk said:

 

 

Maybe it's not so smart to post your movements (no idea if it's the same convoy).

That group got fucked up. 

[Deej 76831]

30 minutes ago, bolverk said:

Maybe it's not so smart to post your movements (no idea if it's the same convoy).

It's a great idea. Keep it up.

[Nivek 16945]

1 hour ago, SL Xpress said:

I think there's a lot of incompetence involved as well.

The Russians consistently demonstrate ossified organizational thinking, which is systemic given the priority of the ruling class to make sure the military can't usurp their power. 

When you're in an organization that prioritizes following the rules and protocol above all else, shifting priorities due to changing circumstances is a terrible weakness. I'm sure most if not all of us have experienced that within our lifetimes. We don't have to move to Russia. But this is organizational handicaps writ in full. 

BTW, being in an organization that doesn't do a good job of following rules and protocol has its own problems. 

If the Russian military is tasked with taking a specific objective, then the organization bends its organizational structure towards that objective. Supply lines shift resources there without thought about the needs of other areas or how they should be prioritized within the context of the objective. The objective becomes all. The future of the organization is not considered. So trainers are sent to the front lines. All available material is sent, regardless of the ability to replace or repair it. No one is making healthy organizational decisions, because the only good organizational decision is to make sure you're not blamed when things go awry. Which also means leadership is promoted and incentivized on the basis of a) not being a threat to superiors, b) the ability to follow orders and parrot the party line, and c) the ability to find scapegoats when things go wrong. Russia is not alone in featuring these dynamics. It's a very human quality. But their whole culture is built around it.  

I have not understood the military experts who have been perplexed about this operation, nor all the people writing articles featuring this perspective. To me it's seemed brilliant. To quote brilliant military strategist Willie Keeler, "hit the ball where they ain't." Make them shift priorities, resources, and objectives, because for them it's like turning around an aircraft carrier. 

Not to mention the insane political wins this is creating. Where else in this conflict could this many men and material have had this kind of impact on the conflict? It has seemed like a well run and well thought out operation. This has been much better than what transpired on the left bank of Dnipro trying to create a bridgehead there. Probably in part because Russia completely deprioritized the area thinking their nuclear arsenal would ensure the US and other allies would prevent the Ukrainians from running such an operation. 

The whole thing has been wonderful from my perspective. I hope the Ukranians continue to enjoy success with this. 

It seems that Russia never considered the fact that they couldn't pick the battle ground either way, or were overly reliant upon the Western Nations handcuffing their actions.  Coupled with their focus on entrenching and defending those positions so heavily they left themselves vulnerable in other areas.  I also doubt those defenses were designed beyond a single direction given what we know of Russian military quality/thinking.    But who knows,   I am just some asshole that challenged Sun Tzu's doctrine from my keyboard.

 

 

[KYHorn 17076]

5 hours ago, ABSR said:

I think controlling the LNG station is nice and they could threaten destruction, but I don’t think they will as the supply is to NATO nations and I believe the pipeline runs through Ukraine held territory so in theory they could have already destroyed it if they wanted.

The NP plant makes more sense, not that they would destroy it, but if they shut off distribution that would be huge.  And not something Russia could indiscriminately bomb unless they intend to make a huge catastrophe and blame Ukraine.  Doesn’t make sense to logical people…but Russia.

What this gives them is the ability to threaten or stop rail and road supplies to a large area of Russian held territory and create massive logistics failures which would eventually impact Russian combat capabilities and create weakness in other areas they could exploit.

From PR standpoint it is great too, and even if it does not achieve great long term military success, it has the possible effect similar to the Tet offensive in the Vietnam war.

You give our nuclear power plant back, we'll give you yours 

[AUS-97HORN 11809]

10 minutes ago, KYHorn said:

You give our nuclear power plant back, we'll give you yours 

saw a video that pointed out that trade makes zero sense.  the Ukr NPP is on the wrong side of the river,  meaning if they did it, the Russians would just make the trade, give the Ukr's the land around it, and then just retake it later on because theres no way it can be fortified. 

[KYHorn 17076]

15 minutes ago, AUS-97HORN said:

saw a video that pointed out that trade makes zero sense.  the Ukr NPP is on the wrong side of the river,  meaning if they did it, the Russians would just make the trade, give the Ukr's the land around it, and then just retake it later on because theres no way it can be fortified. 

Yeah, it'd have to be in conjunction with giving up swathes of land back too.

Edited August 10 by KYHorn

[KYHorn 17076]

 

Just to put things into perspective:

It took Russians almost a year and between 70,000 and 100,000 WIA / KIA in casualties to take 390 square kilometers (150 square miles) in the Avdiivka sector. They hailed this as a "genius" move.

Ukrainians took in 5 days more than 470 square kilometers (180 square miles) in Kursk, with no significant losses, according Russian claims even up to 700 square kilometers, and there is no sign of them stopping.

 

Edited August 10 by KYHorn

[atomheartbevo 89732]

1 hour ago, bolverk said:

Maybe it's not so smart to post your movements (no idea if it's the same convoy).

44 minutes ago, Deej said:

It's a great idea. Keep it up.

[atomheartbevo 89732]

2 hours ago, SL Xpress said:

If the Russian military is tasked with taking a specific objective, then the organization bends its organizational structure towards that objective. Supply lines shift resources there without thought about the needs of other areas or how they should be prioritized within the context of the objective. The objective becomes all. The future of the organization is not considered. So trainers are sent to the front lines. All available material is sent, regardless of the ability to replace or repair it. No one is making healthy organizational decisions, because the only good organizational decision is to make sure you're not blamed when things go awry. Which also means leadership is promoted and incentivized on the basis of a) not being a threat to superiors, b) the ability to follow orders and parrot the party line, and c) the ability to find scapegoats when things go wrong. Russia is not alone in featuring these dynamics. It's a very human quality. But their whole culture is built around it.  

Fantastic post, but this especially, explains why Russia struggles so much, even though they had superior numbers of men and equipment.

This goes back to early in the war, when Russia doctrine saw extremely tight control of military operations even at the lower ranks - here in the US or a NATO country, if a small unit of soldiers (led by a sergeant or lieutenant) is told to go down a street and take an objective, and the street is blocked, they simply go down the next street/go around - independent thinking/initiative is the rule of thumb.  They will radio in to the platoon or company leaders that they are doing so, but they don't sit around and bug the higher ups.  In the Russian military, that small unit will stop, pull back, and then start radioing up the chain-of-command, and the next thing you know, you have full colonels making decisions for 10-15 soldiers, that should have been handled by an NCO or a lieutenant, because everybody is afraid of fucking up both at the lower levels, but also the top leaders are micro-managing a lot of stuff.  

That's their culture - nobody wants to take the initiative because there's no reward in doing so.  In the west, if some small unit freezes and/or pulls back when there are alternative methods of taking the objective, they are going to get their asses chewed out by the company commander, and he may get chewed out by the battalion commander, and the regiment/brigade commander may even chew him out.  If you're told to take an objective, they don't need to know that there are some wrecked vehicles blocking the way, they just want to know if you either need additional assistance, or when you've taken the objective.  

And even if you take the initiative in Russia and do the right thing, you're liable to have multiple people above you taking credit, so what's the point?

It's Office Space on the battlefield.  7 bosses chewing you out over stupid little shit.

[Nivek 16945]

18 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

I remember watching that live.   What a doofus. 

[KYHorn 17076]

 

Russian commanders refused to move conscript soldiers to the rear in Kursk region. They are considered a combat unit - Russian Agentstvo media.

According to the media, the unit consisting of conscripts receives battle orders, and their commanders refuse to move them to the rears. There has been no confirmation that conscripts already take part in combat.

Families of many conscripts in Kursk region reported that they cannot contact them at the moment. A Russian petition to remove conscripts from Kursk region has gathered about 3,500 signatures.

📷: 22 year old Nikita Dobrynin, Russian conscript who was killed in the Kursk direction. He is the first officially confirmed conscript to be KIA in that area.

[BamaATL 16593]

No idea as to accuracy, but interesting if true

 

[Deej 76831]

Looks ripe for some HIMARS