Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[Parliament 14065]

15 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Yeah, I'm very skeptical of that story. Frankly, it almost has too many details, which you often see when someone is trying to make a lie believable. 

Are you my wife?

[RPM 26149]

 

[SL Xpress 7503]

27 minutes ago, 0xdeadbeef said:

Meanwhile, Dr Huseyn Aliyev, an expert in conflict and security in Russia, Ukraine and the former Soviet Union at the University of Glasgow's Central and Eastern European Studies, cautioned that the claims raised in the WSJ investigation were 'based on anecdotal evidence' and described them as 'difficult to believe'. 

'It is difficult to believe that, if Ukraine indeed planned this operation at the highest level, no communication took place with the German side. 

'I also find it difficult to believe that operation of that scale and magnitude was allegedly handled by the Ukrainian Army Chief Gen Zaluzhny, rather than the Military Intelligence (GUR) or Security Services (SBU), which to this date were in charge of all sabotage activities against Russia,' he said, though noted that a former SBU agent was reportedly involved in planning the attack. 

Just to play Devil's Advocate here, first of all, the way the operation is laid out in the Wall Street Journal it was not an incredibly sophisticated operation run by intelligence operators. It was very much an off the books operation financed by a private businessman, and not the government. That's according to the article. 

Second, why would they communicate with the German side if they really wanted to carry out the operation? It would seem to me the best way to cripple the operation would be to tell the German side you were planning it. Never mind that the German intelligence service allegedly has people sympathetic to the Russian cause, although that would be enough. Finding a German organization that would be supportive of blowing up the Nord Stream 2 would and should be scarce indeed. 

I will say it seems awfully dumb for a covert mission of any kind to be flying the Ukraine flag on their boat the way the article claims. I don't care how professional or unprofessional the operatives were. 

I would like to see more from the people who went on the excursion how they decided it would be "a blast" to go diving in the Baltic in and around the area the Nord Stream 2 pipeline crosses around the time it was blown up. Until then I feel inclined to believe the WSJ version of events until something more credible comes out. 

I have always leaned towards this being a Russian false flag operation, but I no longer lean that way. 

[Trey3216 15317]

6 minutes ago, RPM said:

 

[The Dog 43662]

 

[Parliament 14065]

12 minutes ago, RPM said:

 

Cool.  Now do ATACM's and F16's.

[Chad Fuck 17438]

21 minutes ago, The Dog said:

 

Hard decision between giving this one a laugh, and a fafo.

[The Dog 43662]

 

[ABSR 5281]

58 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

Dr. Zhivago time would be nice.  

If you read this it actually says the commander was well liked by his men, but that he was shot and killed by other officers.  So my guess is he didn't want to send his men into a meat grinder and he was executed for this position (Shot 11 times).    The key is for the grunts to follow these officers lead and shoot and kill the "normal" Russian officers. 

[BamaATL 16592]

13 minutes ago, ABSR said:

If you read this it actually says the commander was well liked by his men, but that he was shot and killed by other officers.  So my guess is he didn't want to send his men into a meat grinder and he was executed for this position (Shot 11 times).    The key is for the grunts to follow these officers lead and shoot and kill the "normal" Russian officers. 

I feel pretty confident killing the commander that didn't get his guys killed won't be overly popular with the rank and file.  

[kevwun 15518]

Maybe he killed himself?  Russians have a strange ability to shoot themselves multiple times when committing suicide.

[Parliament 14065]

5 minutes ago, kevwun said:

Maybe he killed himself?  Russians have a strange ability to shoot themselves multiple times when committing suicide.

While standing on a balcony holding a cup of tea.

[The Dog 43662]

 

[atomheartbevo 89292]

1 hour ago, RPM said:

 

 

Thank you for posting that - always up for some sexy Jayne Secker.  Early 50s with a British accent....not sure if I would have to fight @Brisketexan for her.

Here's a little more on it.  I honestly think the British are kind of proud that their Challengers are fighting in Russia.

 

[RPM 26149]

22 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

 I honestly think the British are kind of proud that their Challengers are fighting in Russia.

Abso-lutely! They like to sell tanks, too. Showing Challengers fubar whatever Vlad tries to match with will be a great highlight reel. It's a very good tank.

[KYHorn 16751]

Damn

 

 

[MillerEP 30307]

https://www.threads.net/@nickmelnick.osint/post/C-smKSuo2zL?xmt=AQGzpgbw0iO1khXf6t9f3UJU79_uUNcIE7fMVKPtAp94Ow

⚡️A Russian Tu-22M3 strategic bomber has just crashed in the Irkutsk region.
🤔 Preliminarily, the cause of the crash was a technical malfunction. These aircraft are responsible for launching massive missile strikes against Ukraine's energy, civilian, and military infrastructure.

 

https://www.threads.net/@ghostoflviv_/post/C-sqN2sPkqj?xmt=AQGzpgbw0iO1khXf6t9f3UJU79_uUNcIE7fMVKPtAp94Ow

Ukrainain forces have entered Vyazovoye in the Belgorod region

[KYHorn 16751]

 

 

 

 

The Biden administration is "open" to sending long-range air-to-surface missiles to Ukraine. We are talking about JASSM missiles — Politico The issue of "sensitive technologies" related to this missile, which has a 450 kg warhead and can strike at a depth of 370 km, is currently under discussion.

Edited August 15 by KYHorn

[KYHorn 16751]

4 hours ago, KYHorn said:

Might help explain his reassignment 

Ukraine's top general disobeyed Zelenskyy and blew up the Nord Stream pipeline without permission, report says

https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-general-defied-zelenskyy-to-blow-up-nord-stream-attack-wsj-2024-8

 

Yeah, well, what do you have to say about this, Mr. President??

 

 

[BamaATL 16592]

13 minutes ago, KYHorn said:

Damn

 

 

I think this would only be the 3rd of 4th loss of a HIMARs the entire duration of the conflict.  Hate that it's happened at all, but that's pretty amazing considered how highly prized they are.  I've read that in Ukraine they pop out, fire and immediately retreat to fortified underground bunkers, which is why they haven't been hit, in Kursk, that may not be as readily possible.  

[MillerEP 30307]

https://www.threads.net/@ghostoflviv_/post/C-qaP0CSZbV?xmt=AQGzpgbw0iO1khXf6t9f3UJU79_uUNcIE7fMVKPtAp94Ow

How it started vs How it’s going

^ lol, a RuZZian General Lee

https://www.threads.net/@meanwhile_in_ua/post/C-rrDkEOYM9?xmt=AQGzpgbw0iO1khXf6t9f3UJU79_uUNcIE7fMVKPtAp94Ow

These russian tanks in Kursk region are being picked up as trophies and taken back to Ukraine for refurbishment 💙💛
Slava Ukraine! Heroyam Slava! 🇺🇦💙💛

[MillerEP 30307]

https://www.threads.net/@ghostoflviv_/post/C-qqrJwym34?xmt=AQGzpgbw0iO1khXf6t9f3UJU79_uUNcIE7fMVKPtAp94Ow

A currency exchange business has re-opened in Ukrainain occupied Sudzha.
Ruski! Exchange your rubles to hryvnia!!

https://www.threads.net/@mx_ukr/post/C-sb9JopQMj?xmt=AQGzpgbw0iO1khXf6t9f3UJU79_uUNcIE7fMVKPtAp94Ow

In Rylsk, ships and business have closed and the nearest supermarkets are 40 km away

Looks like the city is getting ready to be closed or evacuated

[General Specific 3169]

I've read in the past that there are multiple places in western Ukraine used for POW camps, and I've seen footage of the camps.  The POWs are well fed, taken care of medically, and clean.  Andersonville, it ain't.  They are shown footage of Russian behavior and crimes committed.  Lastly they are given the opportunity to more or less defect and be removed from the exchange pool.  

So a Russian defector has a chance to finally see Montana?

[BamaATL 16592]

Well this is the best recruiting video I've seen

 

[PTINS 3430]

56 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

https://www.threads.net/@nickmelnick.osint/post/C-smKSuo2zL?xmt=AQGzpgbw0iO1khXf6t9f3UJU79_uUNcIE7fMVKPtAp94Ow

⚡️A Russian Tu-22M3 strategic bomber has just crashed in the Irkutsk region.
🤔 Preliminarily, the cause of the crash was a technical malfunction. These aircraft are responsible for launching massive missile strikes against Ukraine's energy, civilian, and military infrastructure.

 

https://www.threads.net/@ghostoflviv_/post/C-sqN2sPkqj?xmt=AQGzpgbw0iO1khXf6t9f3UJU79_uUNcIE7fMVKPtAp94Ow

Ukrainain forces have entered Vyazovoye in the Belgorod region

The Belata Air Base in Irkutsk is 2,800 miles from Kharkiv. Russia is estimated to have 50ish Tu-22M3 "Backfires" remaining.

It appears Russia is systematically reducing their national defense to support the 3 day SMO.

[Dahobbs 17314]

1 hour ago, KYHorn said:

 

 

 

 

The Biden administration is "open" to sending long-range air-to-surface missiles to Ukraine. We are talking about JASSM missiles — Politico The issue of "sensitive technologies" related to this missile, which has a 450 kg warhead and can strike at a depth of 370 km, is currently under discussion.

We've talked about game changers before. I usually hate the term. But actually providing JASSM in quantity, especially the ER versions, would absolutely be a game changer. 

[atomheartbevo 89292]

1 hour ago, BamaATL said:

I think this would only be the 3rd of 4th loss of a HIMARs the entire duration of the conflict.  Hate that it's happened at all, but that's pretty amazing considered how highly prized they are.  I've read that in Ukraine they pop out, fire and immediately retreat to fortified underground bunkers, which is why they haven't been hit, in Kursk, that may not be as readily possible.  

Yeah, but given how effective they've been, they've been more than worth their weight in gold.  Plus, while it's apples and oranges, those can be replaced, but this big boy can't:

2 hours ago, MillerEP said:

https://www.threads.net/@nickmelnick.osint/post/C-smKSuo2zL?xmt=AQGzpgbw0iO1khXf6t9f3UJU79_uUNcIE7fMVKPtAp94Ow

⚡️A Russian Tu-22M3 strategic bomber has just crashed in the Irkutsk region.
🤔 Preliminarily, the cause of the crash was a technical malfunction. These aircraft are responsible for launching massive missile strikes against Ukraine's energy, civilian, and military infrastructure

[AUS-97HORN 11577]

2 hours ago, BamaATL said:

I think this would only be the 3rd of 4th loss of a HIMARs the entire duration of the conflict. 

 

I know Russia keeps showing them attacking cardboard decoys, or attacking 3rd story windows that are hiding one.  But I think this is the first lost HIMARS I have seen as confirmed.

 

[Superhero 8691]

On 8/12/2024 at 3:18 PM, Sawbonz said:

Can’t they just gas up and grab snacks along the way?

I don't think Buc'ees has franchised to Russia yet.

[Dahobbs 17314]

50 minutes ago, AUS-97HORN said:

 

I know Russia keeps showing them attacking cardboard decoys, or attacking 3rd story windows that are hiding one.  But I think this is the first lost HIMARS I have seen as confirmed.

 

Yup. Pretty sure you are right. I think Perun just had a video on equipment losses the other week and said there was no visual confirmation of a HIMARs loss despite Russian claims. 

[kevwun 15518]

Pretty sure the Russians have claimed to have destroyed more than have actually ever been produced.

[PTINS 3430]

1 hour ago, Dahobbs said:

We've talked about game changers before. I usually hate the term. But actually providing JASSM in quantity, especially the ER versions, would absolutely be a game changer. 

I was wondering, "How far away can an F-16 launch a missile? , and Voilà..., the answer magically appears.

The AGM-158 JASSM-ER (Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile-Extended Range) has a range of over 575 miles, and carries a 1,000 pound warhead.

The US, Poland & Finland already have these in hand, I think.

1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

Yeah, but given how effective they've been, they've been more than worth their weight in gold.  Plus, while it's apples and oranges, those can be replaced, but this big boy can't:

Russia built 497 TU-22 variants, with the first flight in 1969, and they still have ~ 55 in service. (55/497, 11%). I think this is #4 or 5 they have lost (by Ukraine, or crashed) since the SMO begin.  They are definitely a finite resource, one that has had operational issues since it was introduced. Russia only keeps these at 3 bases, 2 near Moscow and one in Irkutsk, near Mongolia.

For comparison, the US built 102 B52-H, entered service in 1961, and still have 76 in service (~ 75%).

Edited August 15 by PTINS
typo. text.

[AUS-97HORN 11577]

59 minutes ago, AUS-97HORN said:

 

I know Russia keeps showing them attacking cardboard decoys, or attacking 3rd story windows that are hiding one.  But I think this is the first lost HIMARS I have seen as confirmed.

 

 

So youtube has been showing me this guy a lot since the Kursk offensive.   I fully realize hes a very biased source.

However, todays update shows all the stuff we have seen, plus he mentions that this is the 2nd HIMARS confirmed destroyed, but also in the video he points out that Ukraine shot down and killed a Russian General in Kursk (@ the 13:40ish mark).

 

 

[Macanudo 12911]

7 hours ago, Armybrat said:

“Spa worker”?

Happy endings don't happen by themselves. 

[BamaATL 16592]

19 minutes ago, Macanudo said:

Happy endings don't happen by themselves. 

Giving handjobs for a reasonable price shouldn't come with the possibility of arrest, rather, a triple A rating withe Better Business Bureau and community nomination for the Nobel Peace Prize.  

[Captainant 27224]

1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

Yeah, but given how effective they've been, they've been more than worth their weight in gold.  Plus, while it's apples and oranges, those can be replaced, but this big boy can't:

lulz maybe they drank all the coolant on the TU-22

Apparently most of the soviet aircraft were raided for their ethanol working fluids

[Dahobbs 17314]

54 minutes ago, PTINS said:

I was wondering, "How far away can an F-16 launch a missile? , and Voilà..., the answer magically appears.

The AGM-158 JASSM-ER (Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile-Extended Range) has a range of over 575 miles, and carries a 1,000 pound warhead.

The US, Poland & Finland already have these in hand, I think.

 

Yup. Nothing Ukraine has so far would compare to the combination, range, payload, and ability to penetrate air defenses that the JASSM-ER offers. We've been actively producing the ER version since 2014 and have recently upped the production rate, aiming for 1,000 per year. There are also a newer version also in development or perhaps initial production (JASSM-XR). We have thousands of the various JASSMs versions in storage, not even including the anti-ship version, LRASM. And if then there is the possibility of supplying rapid dragon, which would allow simple cargo planes to launch pallets of the missiles from stand-off ranges. 

Edited August 15 by Dahobbs

[PTINS 3430]

On 8/12/2024 at 1:02 PM, PTINS said:

The picture shows the above ground assets of the Sudzha Gas Meter Station in Russia. I have no information on the station itself, so I will comment on what I see and other information that is available.

The pipeline flows from the NE (Russia) to the SW (Ukraine). The 56" line is buried, and the above ground assets include 4 banks of Meter Tubes, 2 of which were damaged.

If there was damage to the pipeline itself, there would be a crater ~ 100+ ft across and 20 feet deep, with a fireball 100's of feet high, consistent with the rupture of a 56" natural gas pipeline flowing at 1,000 # of pressure, sounding something like a jet engine at full after burner. 

I expect that the yellow box in the lower left corner is an area that would include the manifolding for switching flows between the various meter banks.

This indicates the measurement may be compromised, but the pipeline itself is intact, at least as much as it was before last week.

 

TLDR.

The Urengoy (Brotherhood) pipeline was commissioned in 1984 and originates in the Urengoy Gas Field, ~ 2,000 miles away in northern Siberia. The pipeline flow 700+ miles across Ukraine, splitting as it enters near Sumy (Sudzha), and at various points in Ukraine and again as it moves further towards Eastern Europe. 

The Sudzha meter station shows the meter tubes, consistent with the characterization of Sudzha as a meter station, simply a custody transfer measurement point between Russia and Ukraine, to assist in doing a material balance across the pipeline system. 

Typically, a mainline Block Valve (BV) is closed and the gas is diverted from the below ground mainline to the above ground assets, in this case, the meter tubes. Each of the 4 meter banks appears to have 5 tubes (size unknown), but 5 24" meter tubes would handled the full flow gas stream.  Most measurement systems require laminar rather that turbulent flow, so you need a long straight run of pipe upstream (~ 20 pipe diameters) of the meter and downstream (5-10 pipe diameters).  This tells me the measurement capacity is (a) ~ 4X the gas flow, or the mainline flow is split into 2 smaller streams, each with a typical 100% redundancy or (b) requires 3 measurement banks, with one spare or (c) none of the above.  

The meters and tubes are specialty pieces of equipment, but smallish in nature. Necessary for most accurate measurement possible, but the older technology still works. Probably sanctioned items, but ...

Sudzha but does have any compression facilities nor does it show a "slug catcher", a structure constructed to remove any condensate (liquids) from the pipeline. 

UTOS Slug Catcher & Compressor Station, near Cameron, Louisiana

 

The mainline compressor sets are major pieces of equipment and the heart of the pipeline system, up to ~ 25,000 HP gas turbines with centrifugal compressors. Damages to these would be huge, irreplaceable due to sanctions. The slug catchers are massive structures ( ~15 pipe sections, 1,000 feet long, 42" diameter, with associated manifolds and gas/liquid separation capacity) fabricated to catch and stabilize the large slugs of liquids that condense in the pipelines. These are not located at the Sudzha Station.

Ukraine showed enough to get the message across; "We are here and we could have done much worse." At the same time, they have 700 miles of a Russian pipeline crossing Ukraine. They could stop the flow any time they wanted, but they also need the gas.

I went back and looked at the Compression Stations along Russia's Urengoy Pipeline. Russia has 42 stations along the ~2,700 mile, with the average station about ~ 150,000 HP. A GE Frame 5 Gas Turbine (a DC-1O engine) produces 25,000 HP, this is probably what was available when the pipeline was built. My info is dated, but these would have been $10+ million each when they were installed in the 80's.

Here is the Kurskaya Compressor Station about 50 miles upstream of Sudzha.~ near Kursk. The five blue buildings would be the larger gas fired turbines.  The compressor station is a much more substantial facility than the Sudzha Meter Station.  There are actually multiple pipelines in this pipe corridor and the smaller, similar facility in the lower right probably serves one of the other pipelines.

These stations are all located ~ 2,000 feet away from the mainline pipe corridor.  In the event a pipeline ruptures, by man or my nature, you don't want to be anywhere close by when it happens.

They had an accident on this pipeline in 2007.

"As a result of the gas explosion, the crater with a diameter near 100 m remained; the territory with a radius of 1.0 km was completely burnt out. The trees were charred and the soil was changed to an orange substrate (burned into glass). Separate parts of the pipeline were ... blown ... away by the explosion a distance of  60 - 70 meters."

The 56" pipe weighs about 1 ton for every 4 feet of pipe. A 56" pipe, at 1,000 PSI, open to atmosphere, would have ~ 2,500,000 lbs of thrust, about 2X the Space Shuttle. That would be before it ignited.

Russia Gas Pipeline Explosion

 

  

[SL Xpress 7503]

49 minutes ago, PTINS said:

I went back and looked at the Compression Stations along Russia's Urengoy Pipeline. Russia has 42 stations along the ~2,700 mile, with the average station about ~ 150,000 HP. A GE Frame 5 Gas Turbine (a DC-1O engine) produces 25,000 HP, this is probably what was available when the pipeline was built. My info is dated, but these would have been $10+ million each when they were installed in the 80's....

 

 

I want to thank you for adding your expertise. I find all of this fascinating in a way I didn't necessarily think I would. Part of it is because I feel like it's being explained by someone who knows what they're talking about rather than someone by me who read up about it on a Wikipedia entry. I really appreciate it.

[SL Xpress 7503]

2 hours ago, Superhero said:

I don't think Buc'ees has franchised to Russia yet.

One Buc-ees would double the amount of working toilets in whatever area they built. 

[Parliament 14065]

1 hour ago, Dahobbs said:

Yup. Nothing Ukraine has so far would compare to the combination, range, payload, and ability to penetrate air defenses that the JASSM-ER offers. We've been actively producing the ER version since 2014 and have recently upped the production rate, aiming for 1,000 per year. There are also a newer version also in development or perhaps initial production (JASSM-XR). We have thousands of the various JASSMs versions in storage, not even including the anti-ship version, LRASM. And if then there is the possibility of supplying rapid dragon, which would allow simple cargo planes to launch pallets of the missiles from stand-off ranges. 

So let’s fucking do it already.  Let’s let Ukraine fly F16’s as far into Russia as they want, and launch JASSM’s as far as they want.  For fucks sake already.

[atomheartbevo 89292]

2 hours ago, kevwun said:

Pretty sure the Russians have claimed to have destroyed more than have actually ever been produced.

I wouldn’t be surprised if one of their evening state TV shows discussed them destroying the HIMARS plant in Arkansas.

 

[InkaUtexas 25186]

8 minutes ago, Parliament said:

So let’s fucking do it already.  Let’s let Ukraine fly F16’s as far into Russia as they want, and launch JASSM’s as far as they want.  For fucks sake already.

I would love to see what Cobra's could do to the russian armor. USMC wants to upgrade, so....

[atomheartbevo 89292]

2 hours ago, PTINS said:

Russia built 497 TU-22 variants, with the first flight in 1969, and they still have ~ 55 in service. (55/497, 11%). I think this is #4 or 5 they have lost (by Ukraine, or crashed) since the SMO begin.  They are definitely a finite resource, one that has had operational issues since it was introduced. Russia only keeps these at 3 bases, 2 near Moscow and one in Irkutsk, near Mongolia.

For comparison, the US built 102 B52-H, entered service in 1961, and still have 76 in service (~ 75%).

And the last B-52H was built in 1962.

This was interesting:

Quote

On Sept. 2-3, 1996, two B-52Hs struck Baghdad power stations and communications facilities with 13 AGM-86C Conventional Air-Launched Cruise Missiles, or CALCMs, as part of Operation Desert Strike. At that time, this was the longest distance flown for a combat mission involving a 34-hour, 16,000-statute-mile round trip from Barksdale Air Force Base, Louisiana.

Meanwhile. Russia struggles to accurately bomb a country that is *checks notes* 0 miles away from Russia with their strategic bombers so they lob missiles at cities and hope they hit something, and rely on glide bombs to hit military targets.

If they claim to have 55 Tu-22’s in service I bet it’s more like 30.  

[B00M 6235]

7 hours ago, KYHorn said:

Damn

 

 

I mean, this is the 2nd confirmed HIMARS loss…. That’s ridiculously awesome all things considered. 

Edited August 16 by B00M
According to combat veteran reacts

[KYHorn 16751]

Little green men have visited Russia. 

 

 

 

Edited August 16 by KYHorn

[KYHorn 16751]

7 hours ago, KYHorn said:

 

The Biden administration is "open" to sending long-range air-to-surface missiles to Ukraine. We are talking about JASSM missiles — Politico The issue of "sensitive technologies" related to this missile, which has a 450 kg warhead and can strike at a depth of 370 km, is currently under discussion.

 

[TeeDubya 3358]

23 minutes ago, KYHorn said:

Little green men have visited Russia. 

 

 

 

This strategy is probably saving scores of lives, both civilian, Russian, and AFU, by using surprise to avoid firefights.

[B00M 6235]

58 minutes ago, TeeDubya said:

This strategy is probably saving scores of lives, both civilian, Russian, and AFU, by using surprise to avoid firefights.

Yeah… it’s going to be outrageous when Russia levels every inch of these towns to reclaim the territory 

[Parliament 14065]

13 minutes ago, B00M said:

Yeah… it’s going to be outrageous when Russia levels every inch of these towns to reclaim the territory 

Narrator: "Russia leveled every inch of those towns to reclaim the territory."