Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[BamaATL 16,593]

22 minutes ago, The Dog said:

Someone who knows better - thoughts?

This is Donetsk btw.

Gee wiz, that looks like a lot of fields of fire for the Russians to advance into, but hey, WSJ.  

[The Dog 44,771]

4 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

Gee wiz, that looks like a lot of fields of fire for the Russians to advance into, but hey, WSJ.  

Yeah the question is does Ukraine have what they need to spring the trap?

[Scheiss Meister 8,448]

25 minutes ago, The Dog said:

Someone who knows better - thoughts?

This is Donetsk btw.

Without knowing relative strengths, Russian improvements to their poaitions, and commanders' intentions on both sides, it's hard to say.  It looks like a good opportunity to attack at the shoulders of the salient to try to envelope the Russian troops in the salient, but that doesn't always work out, as the Germans found out just a few miles from there in 1943.

[BamaATL 16,593]

1 minute ago, The Dog said:

Yeah the question is does Ukraine have what they need to spring the trap?

My guess is that just with FPV drones the Russians are fish in a barrel there.  While not listed on that map, those fields of fire are by my estimation artillery ranges.  So it comes down to ammo.  

[BamaATL 16,593]

Another bridge down in Kursk

 

 

[Laxtonto 13,013]

 

[RDCanecutter 26,851]

4 hours ago, Scheiss Meister said:

Watching that I couldn't help but remember how many sorties and lost planes it took to drop a bridge like that in Nam, maaaaan

It's not what you typed but it's what I heard.

[KYHorn 17,564]

WAR CRIME

This is a radio intercept about the beheadings shown in the ISIS like video of the Russian 155th brigade

In the radio intercept, the commander give the order to behead 4 people and put their heads on sticks like in the gruesome video.

One of the victim is presumably a captain in the Ukrainian army.

The filming occured likely near Kolotilovka

RT = Highly appreciated, let the world know about Russia terrorism
@SecBlinken

Edited August 17 by KYHorn

[KYHorn 17,564]

 

[TeeDubya 3,362]

4 hours ago, Scheiss Meister said:

Without knowing relative strengths, Russian improvements to their poaitions, and commanders' intentions on both sides, it's hard to say.  It looks like a good opportunity to attack at the shoulders of the salient to try to envelope the Russian troops in the salient, but that doesn't always work out, as the Germans found out just a few miles from there in 1943.

In fairness to the Wermacht, the Soviets were prepared far better in 1943 to repel armor.  Meanwhile in 2024, the Russians are completely 8nept and clueless, and even if they knew this was coming, they couldn’t do shit about it…

[atomheartbevo 90,542]

27 minutes ago, TeeDubya said:

In fairness to the Wermacht, the Soviets were prepared far better in 1943 to repel armor.  Meanwhile in 2024, the Russians are completely 8nept and clueless, and even if they knew this was coming, they couldn’t do shit about it…

In 2024, the Russians can at least keep their golf carts gassed up!

[PTINS 3,490]

On 8/15/2024 at 5:50 PM, SL Xpress said:

I want to thank you for adding your expertise. I find all of this fascinating in a way I didn't necessarily think I would. Part of it is because I feel like it's being explained by someone who knows what they're talking about rather than someone by me who read up about it on a Wikipedia entry. I really appreciate it.

Thanks! Not to make this about me ... but its about me!

Growing up around B-52's, I never liked Russia, and over the past 900+days, I have come to hate damn near everything about them. 

But this board wouldn't be here without them. I read your posts on other threads here, but nothing else come close to this one.

And the info shared by so many here as been one of the most educational opportunities In my not so young life. I have all these obscure, useless facts taking up precious space in my head, things I will never talk about, unless its to myself, and I can't be here for 10 minutes without those factoids bubbling up from long term storage. Coupling what I think I know or remember from long ago with a wiki query and a Google search and the information at our fingertips is light years different from using a card catalog and the Readers Guide to Periodical Literature.

I have other vices from the days of my youth, so if I take off on a circular tangent, ... be nice.

 

On 8/15/2024 at 6:17 PM, atomheartbevo said:

And the last B-52H was built in 1962.

This was interesting:

Meanwhile. Russia struggles to accurately bomb a country that is *checks notes* 0 miles away from Russia with their strategic bombers so they lob missiles at cities and hope they hit something, and rely on glide bombs to hit military targets.

If they claim to have 55 Tu-22’s in service I bet it’s more like 30.  

This response was to your quote on the B-52 sortie from Barksdale to Iraq.

I "know" a B-52 from Barksdale went down with a nuke a long time ago, but only because my company, before my time, had to relocate some pipelines in the general area. There is so much info out there now on all these things that were classified when we heard about them, but not on everything. 

On 8/15/2024 at 7:31 PM, KYHorn said:

 

23 hours ago, Steel Shank said:

Well OK, then.

So, now Biden is reading Surly?

12 hours ago, The Dog said:

“Regarding the situation at the front: I’m watching closely. I consider the Ukrainian strike in the Kursk region to be a distraction. We should expect the second - the main one, in which they will mainly use their remaining reserves and aviation (F-16). Most likely in the Crimean direction"

From the link:

When you start adding up all the bits and pieces left of what was Russia's domain and arsenal of destruction from the Cold War, there isn't much left.  Other than the nukes.

9 hours ago, KYHorn said:

I've seen a lot of discussion of the Seym River being used by Ukraine as a natural barrier to both force out Russian forces and defend the captured territory. Sure makes the HIMARS loss more palatable if this pans out.

 

 

Green below is territory not yet captured.

 

The green area is bordered on the west and south by Ukraine, on the east by the Ukraine forces, and on the north by the River. I'm having a hard time seeing how (or why?) any Russians could get down there in the first place (see below), unless they were baited to come on down ...

Taking out the bridges is strategic. If Ukraine takes out the 3 rail bridges over the Seym River at Lgov and Kurst, Belgorod is cut off from rail service from the north. Rail to Kharkiv would still be an option. The polygon is 10,000 sq miles.

Lions & Tigers and Bears? 

How about F16's & Abrams & Challengers & ATACMS & JASSMs?

8 hours ago, Parliament said:

“Say hello to Ford and General FUCKIN’ Motors!”

"You have horses golf carts and motorcycles!!! What were you thinking? You ignorant servile scum!"

Fixed it for Webster.

8 hours ago, BamaATL said:

Generally starts around mid September, and then pretty much everything is impassable until late November/middle December, once the freeze sets.  ...  Ukraine is at least going to hold this area into next year.  

At the end of the day, if a diplomatic solution is to come post the US election, having a chip to trade is smart. 

That's a Bingo!

7 hours ago, The Dog said:

Boom

 

My Google Earth sleuthing indicates the video is of the Seym River Bridge at Zavannoe. Apparently the one at Glushkovo was also hit, but the video is mislabeled.  You can see the waves washing up on the banks in the video. The banks are not exposed on the Glushkovo Bridge.

6 hours ago, Scheiss Meister said:

Watching that I couldn't help but remember how many sorties and lost planes it took to drop a bridge like that in Vietnam.  Now it's lob a few glide bombs at it and it's gone.  Amazing change.

My parallel is drilling for oil & gas wells. It used to be hit miss; lots of dry holes. Not anymore. It's hit, hit, hit.

4 hours ago, BamaATL said:

Another bridge down in Kursk

 

Shits happening fast!

[Scheiss Meister 8,448]

2 hours ago, TeeDubya said:

In fairness to the Wermacht, the Soviets were prepared far better in 1943 to repel armor.  Meanwhile in 2024, the Russians are completely 8nept and clueless, and even if they knew this was coming, they couldn’t do shit about it…

That's where relative strengths enters the picture.  Both sides here are worn down, but Russia has more meat to use for defense, and it is much easier to defend than attack.  Ukraine may have some fresh troops with fresh equipment hidden away for a surprise attack, but that seems unlikely with the prevalence of drones on the battlefield.

I want Ukraine to recreate the Kharkiv breakout and run Russia smooth out of their country, but that seems like wishful thinking right now.

[InkaUtexas 26,795]

41 minutes ago, Scheiss Meister said:

That's where relative strengths enters the picture.  Both sides here are worn down, but Russia has more meat to use for defense, and it is much easier to defend than attack.  Ukraine may have some fresh troops with fresh equipment hidden away for a surprise attack, but that seems unlikely with the prevalence of drones on the battlefield.

I want Ukraine to recreate the Kharkiv breakout and run Russia smooth out of their country, but that seems like wishful thinking right now.

Yep, sadly I tend to agree. Maybe some other incursions, but at some point the mud will make resupply rough.

Then again, Putin might fall out of a window, and as @Parliament added a few pages back, while drinking tea.

[atomheartbevo 90,542]

They keep enlarging this invasion, looking like they are going to link up or do something with stuff happening around Belgorod.  If they pull this off before mud season, that will be awesome and fairly safe for them, given how many routes they seem to be destroying (bridges, eventually railways).  If they take the right areas, they can play to the interior lines strategy:

Quote

Interior line strategies are based on the fact that lines of movement and communication within an enclosed area are shorter and safer than those on the outside. As the area held by a defensive force shrinks, the interior line advantage held by the defensive force increases.

We are coming up on two weeks and Russia can't stop them inside of Russia.  Russia is panicking and rushing troops to Kursk, but because a lot of their best and brightest, or at least the better-trained with some institutional knowledge, are lying in hefty trash bags in a warehouse, they keep getting arriving troops killed or captured.

What happens if Ukraine drops the Kerch bridge?  There's arguments to completely destroy the other land routes (train routes/highways along the coastal area) and the ferry ships, and leave the Kerch Bridge open and the civilians will jam it up, but fuck it, what if they completely drop a chunk of the Kerch bridge?  Seems like Russia's generals would dial up the panic to 11.

 

Edited August 17 by atomheartbevo

[Parliament 14,556]

How man troops does Russia have in Crimea?  Take out the bridge and keep harassing the ferries, railroads, trucks,etc. and how effectively can the be resupplied?

[Schulz2.0 29,241]

 

 

[Gandalfish 378]

8 hours ago, PTINS said:

When you start adding up all the bits and pieces left of what was Russia's domain and arsenal of destruction from the Cold War, there isn't much left.  Other than the nukes.

Aside from that, how was the play Mrs. Lincoln? 🙃

[KYHorn 17,564]

Crazy footage shows a brilliantly planned evacuation of Ukrainian fighters and destruction of the enemy in Pokrovsk direction. The Russians came very close, but after accurate hits by artillery, the crew of the 47th Brigade's Bradley IFV saved the lives of the soldiers by firing at the tree line.

t.me/brygada47/976 

I've seen quite a few posts saying it's surrounded at least. Video of Russian POWs allegedly from the area is posted in the thread, but Twitter won't allow embed.

 

 

Edited August 17 by KYHorn

[KYHorn 17,564]

20 hours ago, KYHorn said:

Green below is territory not yet captured.

 

This section (far left on the map, not in green) was definitely untenable. 

 

Edited August 17 by KYHorn

[BamaATL 16,593]

2 minutes ago, KYHorn said:

This section (far left on the map, not in green) was definitely untenable. 

 

Well, Putin did say he wanted "buffer zones", between Ukrainian bridge destruction and now Russian, looks like he will get it.   

[KYHorn 17,564]

Different degrees of nuance here, so I'm posting a few. The gist seems to be that no additional military aid from Germany will happen. What has been announced is supposedly going to be fulfilled and any additional aid must come from frozen Russian assets.

Germany stops military aid for Ukraine, — Bild

Chancellor Scholz, with the support of Finance Minister Lindner, ordered that any further aid for Ukraine be frozen.

Current contracts are being fulfilled, but new requests for aid, especially from the Ministry of Defense, are not being approved.

❗️This is not entirely correct, as continued financing is to come largely from frozen russian funds.

We all know Olaf Scholz and his many lies in connection with this war.

It shows that Olaf Scholz's promises to support Ukraine for as long as it takes, may have been a lie again.

Let's hope for the best.

 Germany is temporarily freezing military aid to Ukraine to save costs, according to FAZ. Chancellor Scholz and Finance Minister Lindner have halted all new funding requests, though existing contracts will be fulfilled. Germany is also working on redirecting funds from frozen Russian assets to support Ukraine. 

Edited August 17 by KYHorn

[BamaATL 16,593]

7 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

They keep enlarging this invasion, looking like they are going to link up or do something with stuff happening around Belgorod.  If they pull this off before mud season, that will be awesome and fairly safe for them, given how many routes they seem to be destroying (bridges, eventually railways).  If they take the right areas, they can play to the interior lines strategy:

We are coming up on two weeks and Russia can't stop them inside of Russia.  Russia is panicking and rushing troops to Kursk, but because a lot of their best and brightest, or at least the better-trained with some institutional knowledge, are lying in hefty trash bags in a warehouse, they keep getting arriving troops killed or captured.

What happens if Ukraine drops the Kerch bridge?  There's arguments to completely destroy the other land routes (train routes/highways along the coastal area) and the ferry ships, and leave the Kerch Bridge open and the civilians will jam it up, but fuck it, what if they completely drop a chunk of the Kerch bridge?  Seems like Russia's generals would dial up the panic to 11.

 

It's starting to strongly look like Russia will retreat from everything south of the Seym in Kursk, this includes the Nuclear Plant.  It occurred to me that if the Ukrainians take the plant, and turn it off, Belogorad will be largely without power.  The would obviously affect a lot things, but the big one we may have missed was the ability to get fuel to the Russian units in Kharkiv.  Basically, without the trains working effectively, no diesel gets to the front, or what little does isn't enough.  If they can do this prior to winter, the Russian army in that area will be stuck, and not just starve from lack of food, but also lack of fuel.  

[KYHorn 17,564]

"The head of the prison, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to ensure the prison location would not be revealed, said 320 Russians have passed through the facility in the past 10 days on their way to other prison camps in Ukraine. The vast majority are young conscripts, the official said, with only around 20 percent identifying as contract fighters or otherwise mobilized soldiers."
@siobhan_ogrady Tetiana Burianova @maryilyushina @s_morgunov
washingtonpost.com/world/2024/08/…

"With a bandaged arm, he was among several in the room who were wounded. Out of 60 men he fought alongside to try to repel the Ukrainian incursion, only four or five survived. The rest refused to surrender and were killed in fighting with Ukrainian troops, he said. He knew he might stay in prison indefinitely but hoped Russia would find a way to quickly return the young conscripts home."

[Schulz2.0 29,241]

[TeeDubya 3,362]

Dominic Nicholls has a pretty good look at the Kursk offensive

 

[KYHorn 17,564]

17 minutes ago, TeeDubya said:

Dominic Nicholls has a pretty good look at the Kursk offensive

 

I've never actually seen what Dom looks like. Much younger and normal looking than the older surly man I had pictured.

[bolverk 30,228]

20 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

It's starting to strongly look like Russia will retreat from everything south of the Seym in Kursk, this includes the Nuclear Plant.  It occurred to me that if the Ukrainians take the plant, and turn it off, Belogorad will be largely without power.  The would obviously affect a lot things, but the big one we may have missed was the ability to get fuel to the Russian units in Kharkiv.  Basically, without the trains working effectively, no diesel gets to the front, or what little does isn't enough.  If they can do this prior to winter, the Russian army in that area will be stuck, and not just starve from lack of food, but also lack of fuel.  

Not to be a wet blanket, but I wouldn't get ahead of ourselves on cutting off Belograd. UA still has a good way to go before reaching that ambitious goal.

BLUE: rivers; BLACK: rails; RED STAR: nuclear power plant

That rail line, running generally north to south from Kursk (K) down to Belograd (B), is 50-60 miles east of the territory UA controls. So, yeah, the rail connection from Lgov to Belograd has been cut off, but there are still alternate routes. I do, obviously, agree that they'd be wise to use the Seym River for their northern defensive barrier.

 

[TeeDubya 3,362]

7 minutes ago, KYHorn said:

I've never actually seen what Dom looks like. Much younger and normal looking than the older surly man I had pictured.

Same.  and Hamish De Bretton-Gordon is much older than I expected. 
 

Though, Frances Dernley looks EXACTLY like I expected.  

[KYHorn 17,564]

5 minutes ago, TeeDubya said:

Same.  and Hamish De Bretton-Gordon is much older than I expected. 
 

Though, Frances Dernley looks EXACTLY like I expected.  

Haha yes, I've seen him

[Parliament 14,556]

48 minutes ago, KYHorn said:

Different degrees of nuance here, so I'm posting a few. The gist seems to be that no additional military aid from Germany will happen. What has been announced is supposedly going to be fulfilled and any additional aid must come from frozen Russian assets.

Germany stops military aid for Ukraine, — Bild

Chancellor Scholz, with the support of Finance Minister Lindner, ordered that any further aid for Ukraine be frozen.

Current contracts are being fulfilled, but new requests for aid, especially from the Ministry of Defense, are not being approved.

❗️This is not entirely correct, as continued financing is to come largely from frozen russian funds.

We all know Olaf Scholz and his many lies in connection with this war.

It shows that Olaf Scholz's promises to support Ukraine for as long as it takes, may have been a lie again.

Let's hope for the best.

 Germany is temporarily freezing military aid to Ukraine to save costs, according to FAZ. Chancellor Scholz and Finance Minister Lindner have halted all new funding requests, though existing contracts will be fulfilled. Germany is also working on redirecting funds from frozen Russian assets to support Ukraine. 

Always gotta be Russia's cuck.  Do better.

[InkaUtexas 26,795]

12 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Always gotta be Russia's cuck.  Do better.

They can't. Need those Russian resources in their capitalistic veins.

But lets wait and see how this plays out. If they are using Russian assets to purchase German weapons then then the supply not only continues, it could go bigger and faster. Aid is limited in distribution as a rule. If true, then the Ukriane, or a commision (EU loves those things) could buy direct.

If not then yes, they are cucks.

[Dahobbs 18,183]

12 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

But lets wait and see how this plays out. If they are using Russian assets to purchase German weapons then then the supply not only continues, it could go bigger and faster. Aid is limited in distribution as a rule. If true, then the Ukriane, or a commision (EU loves those things) could buy direct.

If not then yes, they are cucks.

Yeah. German weapons procurement is pretty complicated. They have massive legal and bureaucratic barriers to doing pretty much anything. I'd hold off on making any snap judgments about that announcement given that aid will continue to flow in the short term and given the availability of Russian assets for continued funding in the medium term. 

[AUS-97HORN 11,991]

8 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Yeah. German weapons procurement is pretty complicated. They have massive legal and bureaucratic barriers to doing pretty much anything. I'd hold off on making any snap judgments about that announcement given that aid will continue to flow in the short term and given the availability of Russian assets for continued funding in the medium term. 

plus Germany has some hyper strick rules about how and where their army can be deployed, their constitution basically made it illegal for Germany to attack anyone except in the case of national defense. and i wouldnt be too shocked if those rules applied to German weapons, going from defensive weapons to defend the Ukr homeland, to them suddenly being used offensively to invade Russia. 

it could very well be a legal stepback they have to take to honor their constitution

[BamaATL 16,593]

This just seems sort of fitting

 

[bolverk 30,228]

5 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

This just seems sort of fitting

 

 

Hey Elmo, which sanctions did you violate to export that thing to Russia?

[Sawbonz 28,081]

This has the feel to me of what Lee could have accomplished had he gotten to the high ground first at Gettysburg. He knew there was no way to win the war, but if he had gotten that high ground, he would’ve broken the union army when they tried to take it, or they would’ve had to retreat in humiliation. Either way, he could have harassed if not outright DC.  He takes DC and the war is over, but just getting close and holding ground that close to the capital would have ensured Lincoln’s defeat

 

Putin will never lose an election, but someone may fix the glitch

[BamaATL 16,593]

7 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

This has the feel to me of what Lee could have accomplished had he gotten to the high ground first at Gettysburg. He knew there was no way to win the war, but if he had gotten that high ground, he would’ve broken the union army when they tried to take it, or they would’ve had to retreat in humiliation. Either way, he could have harassed if not outright DC.  He takes DC and the war is over, but just getting close and holding ground that close to the capital would have ensured Lincoln’s defeat

 

Putin will never lose an election, but someone may fix the glitch

Unfortunately, Putin isn't a glitch in Russian history, he's more of the same.  

[InkaUtexas 26,795]

10 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

Unfortunately, Putin isn't a glitch in Russian history, he's more of the same.  

Yep, he is a combination of a Czar and a Soviet. Not Stalin. Yet.

 

[Parliament 14,556]

3 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Yep, he is a combination of a Czar and a Soviet. Not Stalin. Yet.

 

And Jimbo Fisher.

[InkaUtexas 26,795]

Just now, Parliament said:

And Jimbo Fisher.

In fact you are correct. Instead of a National Championship with no end date he has a war with no end date. Both armies love to cosplay, neither has won shit, and they both like the same style of architecture.

aggy=russia. FFS.

[Sawbonz 28,081]

31 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

Unfortunately, Putin isn't a glitch in Russian history, he's more of the same.  

Regardless it will be that much more difficult for the guy who replaces him to continue to prosecute the war which is Ukraine's main problem at the moment 

Edited August 17 by Sawbonz

[MissingInAction 25,478]

Kadyrov is such a fucking choad.

[MissingInAction 25,478]

16 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

In fact you are correct. Instead of a National Championship with no end date he has a war with no end date. Both armies love to cosplay, neither has won shit, and they both like the same style of architecture.

aggy=russia. FFS.

If you've ever had the misfortune of visiting collie station you'd notice the "architecture" is Stalin shiek.

[Laxtonto 13,013]

Also ongoing fury with #USA in London. The new 🇬🇧govt has confirmed policy is to let #Ukraine use #StormShadow missiles in #Russia.

However as some components are supplied by the U.S., permission is needed. Biden's administration has not even replied to the request for a month.

[BamaATL 16,593]

1 hour ago, Sawbonz said:

Regardless it will be that much more difficult for the guy who replaces him to continue to prosecute the war which is Ukraine's main problem at the moment 

The subtitle of every Russian history book reads, "and then it got worse."  I wouldn't count on the next guy being any better, if history tells us anything with them, there is a greater chance he is more of a psycho. 

[BamaATL 16,593]

Once they sober him up, might be a good source of intel

Oh who am I kidding.  

[B00M 6,725]

2 hours ago, BamaATL said:

This just seems sort of fitting

 

He drives with his head against the steering wheel like an elderly woman. Given what we know about cyber trucks, there’s a good chance the frame breaks for no reason, the air bag punches him in his neck beard and kills him. 

[KYHorn 17,564]

We knew it was happening but interesting to hear directly how it affected the conscripts' thinking 

 

Sky News: Russian conscripts surrendered to the AFU to avoid being killed by Chechens

They are soldiers from the Russian 488th Motorized Rifle Regiment, which is made up mostly of conscripts.

As they fled, they were shot at by Chechen forces on the Russian side, who were "there to prevent them from running away".

"They went the other way, back to the enemy and surrendered. So a whole company of young conscripts, all 18-, 19-year-old boys, surrendered," says security and defense analyst Michael Clarke.

 

Glide bombs going the other way is nice

 

Edited August 17 by KYHorn

[RDCanecutter 26,851]

2 hours ago, BamaATL said:

This just seems sort of fitting

 

At 1:03 I suddenly started reminiscing about my 3rd grade Frito Bandito pencil eraser.