Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[Brisketexan 104208]

9 minutes ago, MissingInAction said:

Yea, but can you fuck it?

You.....of ALL people....know that you can fuck ANYTHING, if you put your mind to it.

We believe in you, MIA.

[MissingInAction 24701]

7 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

You.....of ALL people....know that you can fuck ANYTHING, if you put your mind to it.

We believe in you, MIA.

That's the cheerleading that inspires.

[Chad Fuck 17448]

41 minutes ago, MissingInAction said:

Yea, but can you fuck it?

Improvise, adapt and overcome.

 

Yeah, I said it.

[Evil Bill Obrien 3097]

26 minutes ago, Chad Fuck said:

Improvise, adapt and overcome.

 

Yeah, I said it.

[InkaUtexas 25222]

1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

You.....of ALL people....know that you can fuck ANYTHING, if you put your mind to it.

We believe in you, MIA.

[RockyMountainHighHorn 888]

Do Russians still use pagers? Anyway we can get some of those Israeli to Moscow or the front line asap. 

[DigglerontheHoof 20935]

3 minutes ago, RockyMountainHighHorn said:

Do Russians still use pagers? Anyway we can get some of those Israeli to Moscow or the front line asap. 

We're gonna have to figure out how to rig these up

[Chad Fuck 17448]

Anyone else notice that the drone attacks have appeared to go way down since Ukraine started melting Russian ammo dumps?

Three Shahed shot down, whereas before it was many more.

[AUS-97HORN 11578]

"Thats conjecture and totally a coincidence sir".... 

signed- Pooty Poot

 

 

Edited September 23 by AUS-97HORN

[PTINS 3436]

On 9/21/2024 at 11:43 AM, Laxtonto said:

So all of a sudden we see a massive uptick in secondary and tertiary hops in the ammunition supply chain. What I am more curious about isnt the how/what they are targeting but the "why".

 Is Ukraine trying to bleed out the front-line troops of ammo ... to limit the Russian stockpiles before winter ... to move their supply depots farther east? 

Generally, when you cripple the supply chain, the point is to create downstream disruptions to then force scarcity within the combat units to degrade their combat effectiveness. The problem with this approach is that it is time dependent.

The other obvious reasoning is that these are targets that Ukraine just now has the ability to attack 

So, my learned scholars, what does this mean? What is the goal here? 

Others here have answered more completely.

I look at it very simply...how many of each does Russia have?

1.  Leaders, 1, Putin

2a. Nuclear Power Plants, #?

2b. Conventional Power Plants, #?

3. Ammo Depots 10-12

4. Air Bases #?, 50-100?, planes???

5. Navy Bases #?, only Crimea/Sevastopol really matters

6. Tanks, vehicles, troops, etc. a whole bunch of everything else...

#1 & 2 a&b are off limits, for good reason.

Given the smallish number of potential targets, hitting the ammo depots gives you the ... most bang for for the bucks.

Ukraine's ingenuity in progressing their offensive capabilities cannot be understated.

On 9/21/2024 at 11:10 AM, Parliament said:

How many of the remaining depots are in range of Ukrainian drones/cruise missiles? 

Based on the following, everything in western Russia is within range.

The first plot shows the Ammo Depots referenced in this thread, and those of which have been targeted.

The second plot is the same plot, adding the Oil Refineries that have been targeted. 

On 9/21/2024 at 11:46 AM, BamaATL said:

If what I read earlier is accurate, Russia apparently only has 13 major ammunition depots/storage facilities.  11 of which are more or less in Europe, which are feeding their troops in Ukraine and surrounding.  With 2, perhaps 3 destroyed this week, that would leave them at best 8 facilities remaining.  Now that doesn't mean that they wouldn't figure out different ways to stage material, but it sure makes it more difficult.  

On 9/21/2024 at 5:23 PM, atomheartbevo said:

Serious answer @Laxtonto

• I think it’s more strategic.  I could be wrong, but it seems like these depots are holding the larger weapons (missiles and bombs) that get distributed to airfields, plus air defense (S-300/S-400) and MLRS batteries.  These facilities are expensive, and I don’t see them using them for cheap artillery shells, especially when they seem to be running tight - I would imagine that artillery ammo is going almost straight from the factories to the rail hubs and then the theater or division level and then the batteries.  Again, I could be wrong, but these are holding missiles that Russia purchases from Iran and a North Korea, and I don’t see them sitting next to artillery shells and powder.
• I wouldn’t be surprised if they are hitting these to give Ukrainian air defenses some breathing room and to keep their infrastructure running through the winter,  maybe the Ukrainian foreign minister was correct that Russia was going to target the nuke plants.
• Forcing Russia to move the heavy stuff to the east forces Russia to waste precious transport infrastructure (rail or truck) when they need to deploy them to airfields, which slows down the deployment.  Also, forcing them to the east gets those weapons out in the open for long distances on rail or trucks and gives them more of a chance to see the missiles being sent to airfields so they can get a grasp of where future attacks are likely to come from.  The Russians are pretty set in their ways.  I’d imagine a missile sent to an airfield will be used against the same area that previous missiles sent to that airfield were used against.
• Psychologically it’s fantastic. It makes for sexy social media videos that are easy to grasp and hard to ignore. 
• The stuff they  are hitting seems to be expensive and not easy to come by (given that they are having to go to North Korea and Iran for some of it). It reduces Russia’s strategic advantage - who cares if they can’t hit the Russian airfields if the bombers and attack aircraft don’t have large/strategic weapons?  They aren’t going to risk those aircraft to drop 250lb bombs within MANPADS range.
• if they are storing MLRS ammo, it helps the battlefield forces.
• If they are storing air defense ammo, it opens things up for Ukrainian aircraft to get in closer, because Russia keeps having to move air defense batteries further back into Russia proper. I can only imagine what’s guarding the Kremlin.
• It helps with Crimea.

Great summary.

Russia's dependence on rail really reduces the practical size of Russia's infrastructure, and Google Earth has brought spy satellite capability to your desk top.  Sprinkle it with some homemade weapons, and a big badda boom!

On 9/22/2024 at 3:11 AM, MagicSoccerSpray said:

 

Zeihan is now reading Surly. Does not mean that I will read Zeihan.

My comments below are not meant to inflame or be argumentative, but, given Surly, ...

They are also not meant as a direct response to what was posted. The posts were thought provoking, and this was a convenient way to offer additional information. 

14 hours ago, BamaATL said:

We can look at the history of Russia ... as well the future; which is ultimately in the hands of the global community.  As it currently exists, Russia really isn't good at anything beyond exporting energy.  we will continue to be at the peril of regimes like Russia, Venezuela, and many different bad actors in the Middle East (who are also overly dependent upon energy exportation), At the end of the day, energy independence isn't just critical for the United States, ...  Whether each of us like it or not, whenever each of us fills up at the pump, or heats our houses, etc, we are all helping to prop up these sorts of regimes.  None of us would choose to do this, but

I actually think the more pressing issue at the moment is to limit these sorts of bad actors from a seemingly unlimited piggy bank.  ... the days of this model of "government" are numbered because eventually, like many other countries, they will find themselves without a chair when the music stops (relax Oil and Gas folks, it won't stop entirely, but change and slow).  

The US has always been isolationist, ... except when it was in our best interest to intervene.

After WWII, with our new military capability and vastly superior economic power, the US "projected" our influence across the globe. By the early 70's, British Petroleum, Royal Dutch Shell, and the US dominated the world oil production portfolio. Texas was but a subset of that mindset, political power without the military and economic influence.

By far, the US had the largest oil refining capacity in the world, which was the touch point for most consumers. The US consumption was much greater than the production, with foreign imports satisfying the imbalance. A substantial portion of US oil imports, and of the refining capacity, was to serve the international markets. Our consumption on paper included consumption that happened elsewhere.

The Arab Oil Embargo in 1973 derailed that freight train.

The growing world economy and insatiable thirst for drastically energy shifted the power profile, and transfer of wealth, from the consumers to the producers. The US policies of regulating domestic oil and gas prices did not work in a global market.

Right or wrong, the US Oil & Gas Industry, became the lighting rod for everything that was wrong, and Texas was the focal point.

"Drive 75 and freeze them alive!" certainly didn't help that mindset.

Right or wrong, everything the US Oil & Gas Industry did, the US was against. The Existential domestic fight for survival compromised their worldwide influence on a critical commodity and created a power vacumn that invited other "outside" influences from across the globe. 

Over time, Iran, China and Russia, filled that void, and here we are. 

14 hours ago, SL Xpress said:

I think that is a nice way to think about things.

My way of thinking about things is there are always going to be murderous regimes.

Heck, some people would argue the United States has been a murderous regime. 

To me history is about my values and way of life versus your's. Plenty of times that conflict has an existential nature.  The hope is that the strife can be contained to one that doesn't involve trying to eliminate the enemy from the face of the planet.  

But there will always be people who feel a calling towards having power over others.  I feel like we take our democracy for granted at times, when it's really more fragile than we choose to admit. 

I don't think anything less than being conquered by another nation, a la Japan and Germany, could substantially change the mindset of enough of the Russian people to make a difference. The end of the Cold War certainly did nothing. 

Right now more than the end of fossil fuels as a substantial revenue source, I'd just like to see the US arm Ukraine to the teeth, and allow them to win this war. ... the isolationist tendency for Americans not to actually give a shit for what is going on overseas, and how that plays out in politics. Much more so than the continued value of fossil fuels for Russia and Venezuela.

But we have a chance to do the right thing in stark good and evil, black and white contrast.

...to do the right thing ...once we've exhausted all other possibilities.

(see below)

13 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

When my daughter cooked for her Swedish flatmates, some complained that the food was a touch spicy because she used onions.
ONIONS. Are too spicy. FFS.

Our Au Pairs (no pics. stop reading here) from Germany (2) , Norway and South Africa gained a lot of weight in the first 9-10 months they were here, and lost most of it before they went home. Annika from Finland never gained the weight.

Exposure to Texas BBQ, Mexican food and cajun food tends to do that.

The first time Heike saw us eating oysters and gumbo at Willie G's on Post Oak, she was astonished, scared and ready to go back home. I took her to HEB and it took forever to get through the produce area, she wanted to know what each thing was, most of which I didn't know. Why do you need so many kinds of apples? 

Laila from Norway gained 70 lbs and lost 60 of it her last 2 months. Her description of Norwegian food, was "food without spices."

One thing they all had in common. If they put it on their plate, they ate it. They did not waste food.

We always made them their favorite meals before they left. It was looked like a combination of a free buffet and a last meal on death row, head down and shoveling down the food like there was no tomorrow.

They all took a lot spices home with them.

Crawfish without the crawfish boil spices? Fuck that shit!

13 hours ago, BamaATL said:

Russia, ... wouldn't have the means to wage war, without their natural ... resources.  ... they've bought global influence, financed weaponry, and now are engaged in an awful pointless and cruel war. 

... we (and I mean we as a global we) unwittingly financing this for the past 30 plus years, quite frankly they wouldn't have the means, even if they had the will to do so.   Was any of this done during that time period with the world as complicit partners in all this, no, not at all.  However, when you spend like we have (again, the global we), rather than invest in internal options and alternatives, you find yourself potentially at the whim of someone like Putin.  

Competing for resources is always a thing, and there isn't anything to suggest that we are anywhere near the end of that.   

It's going to take a long time to undo what has been done, no doubt about it.  If there is one thing I hope that is learned out of this entire mess, it's that if we ever see such a drastic imbalance (say for example Europe vs Russia in energy, I look at the US differently, because we are energy independent, and have been for a while) we need to recognize collectively that it's a recipe for trouble.  

When I graduated in '79, I had to write a speech on the biggest challenges we faced as college graduates.  Three Mile Island and the Iranian Revolution topped the news, and as a Mechanical Engineering graduate - (Energy & Fluid systems), I talked about energy production. Duh!!!

(I've realized over the years, that growing up as an Air Force Brat expanded my horizons and exposed me to many things. At the same time, growing up on an Air Force Base also was a very sanitized, and protected existence, with everything I was exposed to carefully selected by others, for a reason. The NCO Club was next to the Bowling Alley, and the Officer's Club was next to the Gold Course. That was the only class distinction I saw til I moved back to Texas when I was 10 years old. I never really felt deprived until I came to UT, and was exposed to differences between the haves and the have nots.)  

After 40-50 years, energy production and supply and demand is still a challenge. Some things changed, and some things have not.   

Ignorance people are still ignorant. And bullies still pick on little kids.

The people of the Second Army of the World, and billions of people don't don't have indoor plumbing and burn coal in their homes for cooking and heat. They burn coal without any alternative.

The natural progression should be from freezing to death -> burn wood -> burn coal -> burn oil - burn gas-> ???, with a layering of nuclear power and renewable's where its practical and economics support doing so. Widespread US consumption of natural gas has happened in my lifetime, and half the world has never seen the benefits of natural gas, yet the global mindset is adamant that we need to stop using it. 

Because "we" have options. Most people don't. 

We, the US, prefer to be isolationists, until it suits us to be something else.

We, the US, are an economic and industrial powerhouse, rich in resources and isolated geographically. We have projected our ideals and beliefs on a world, that really has little in common with us.

The freedoms we sometimes take for granted become more cherished when we see how hard others have to fight to get them in the first place. 

2 hours ago, KYHorn said:

 The blue-collar workers at the Scranton Army Ammunition Plant in Pennsylvania, USA, receive a humble word of gratitude from Ukraine‘s President Zelenskyy. They and their families are part of a struggle which is happening on a global scale. God bless them all! God bless America! 

Powerful stuff. I'm paraphrasing "Your work, the work of 400 people, is saving millions of Ukrainians."

I'm betting Zelensky looks at that factory, and thinks ...

 

[B00M 6238]

1 hour ago, PTINS said:

Others here have answered more completely.

I look at it very simply...how many of each does Russia have?

1.  Leaders, 1, Putin

2a. Nuclear Power Plants, #?

2b. Conventional Power Plants, #?

3. Ammo Depots 10-12

4. Air Bases #?, 50-100?, planes???

5. Navy Bases #?, only Crimea/Sevastopol really matters

6. Tanks, vehicles, troops, etc. a whole bunch of everything else...

#1 & 2 a&b are off limits, for good reason.

Given the smallish number of potential targets, hitting the ammo depots gives you the ... most bang for for the bucks.

Ukraine's ingenuity in progressing their offensive capabilities cannot be understated.

Based on the following, everything in western Russia is within range.

The first plot shows the Ammo Depots referenced in this thread, and those of which have been targeted.

The second plot is the same plot, adding the Oil Refineries that have been targeted. 

Great summary.

Russia's dependence on rail really reduces the practical size of Russia's infrastructure, and Google Earth has brought spy satellite capability to your desk top.  Sprinkle it with some homemade weapons, and a big badda boom!

Zeihan is now reading Surly. Does not mean that I will read Zeihan.

My comments below are not meant to inflame or be argumentative, but, given Surly, ...

They are also not meant as a direct response to what was posted. The posts were thought provoking, and this was a convenient way to offer additional information. 

The US has always been isolationist, ... except when it was in our best interest to intervene.

After WWII, with our new military capability and vastly superior economic power, the US "projected" our influence across the globe. By the early 70's, British Petroleum, Royal Dutch Shell, and the US dominated the world oil production portfolio. Texas was but a subset of that mindset, political power without the military and economic influence.

By far, the US had the largest oil refining capacity in the world, which was the touch point for most consumers. The US consumption was much greater than the production, with foreign imports satisfying the imbalance. A substantial portion of US oil imports, and of the refining capacity, was to serve the international markets. Our consumption on paper included consumption that happened elsewhere.

The Arab Oil Embargo in 1973 derailed that freight train.

The growing world economy and insatiable thirst for drastically energy shifted the power profile, and transfer of wealth, from the consumers to the producers. The US policies of regulating domestic oil and gas prices did not work in a global market.

Right or wrong, the US Oil & Gas Industry, became the lighting rod for everything that was wrong, and Texas was the focal point.

"Drive 75 and freeze them alive!" certainly didn't help that mindset.

Right or wrong, everything the US Oil & Gas Industry did, the US was against. The Existential domestic fight for survival compromised their worldwide influence on a critical commodity and created a power vacumn that invited other "outside" influences from across the globe. 

Over time, Iran, China and Russia, filled that void, and here we are. 

...to do the right thing ...once we've exhausted all other possibilities.

(see below)

Our Au Pairs (no pics. stop reading here) from Germany (2) , Norway and South Africa gained a lot of weight in the first 9-10 months they were here, and lost most of it before they went home. Annika from Finland never gained the weight.

Exposure to Texas BBQ, Mexican food and cajun food tends to do that.

The first time Heike saw us eating oysters and gumbo at Willie G's on Post Oak, she was astonished, scared and ready to go back home. I took her to HEB and it took forever to get through the produce area, she wanted to know what each thing was, most of which I didn't know. Why do you need so many kinds of apples? 

Laila from Norway gained 70 lbs and lost 60 of it her last 2 months. Her description of Norwegian food, was "food without spices."

One thing they all had in common. If they put it on their plate, they ate it. They did not waste food.

We always made them their favorite meals before they left. It was looked like a combination of a free buffet and a last meal on death row, head down and shoveling down the food like there was no tomorrow.

They all took a lot spices home with them.

Crawfish without the crawfish boil spices? Fuck that shit!

When I graduated in '79, I had to write a speech on the biggest challenges we faced as college graduates.  Three Mile Island and the Iranian Revolution topped the news, and as a Mechanical Engineering graduate - (Energy & Fluid systems), I talked about energy production. Duh!!!

(I've realized over the years, that growing up as an Air Force Brat expanded my horizons and exposed me to many things. At the same time, growing up on an Air Force Base also was a very sanitized, and protected existence, with everything I was exposed to carefully selected by others, for a reason. The NCO Club was next to the Bowling Alley, and the Officer's Club was next to the Gold Course. That was the only class distinction I saw til I moved back to Texas when I was 10 years old. I never really felt deprived until I came to UT, and was exposed to differences between the haves and the have nots.)  

After 40-50 years, energy production and supply and demand is still a challenge. Some things changed, and some things have not.   

Ignorance people are still ignorant. And bullies still pick on little kids.

The people of the Second Army of the World, and billions of people don't don't have indoor plumbing and burn coal in their homes for cooking and heat. They burn coal without any alternative.

The natural progression should be from freezing to death -> burn wood -> burn coal -> burn oil - burn gas-> ???, with a layering of nuclear power and renewable's where its practical and economics support doing so. Widespread US consumption of natural gas has happened in my lifetime, and half the world has never seen the benefits of natural gas, yet the global mindset is adamant that we need to stop using it. 

Because "we" have options. Most people don't. 

We, the US, prefer to be isolationists, until it suits us to be something else.

We, the US, are an economic and industrial powerhouse, rich in resources and isolated geographically. We have projected our ideals and beliefs on a world, that really has little in common with us.

The freedoms we sometimes take for granted become more cherished when we see how hard others have to fight to get them in the first place. 

Powerful stuff. I'm paraphrasing "Your work, the work of 400 people, is saving millions of Ukrainians."

I'm betting Zelensky looks at that factory, and thinks ...

 

*cannot be overstated 

[MillerEP 30307]

https://www.threads.net/@nickmelnick.osint/post/DAQsB2xoHpA?xmt=AQGzECub_NLyzSQX8GljXQ_kXJpQ2Ga2wKx5lTi2ntZmqg

⚡️In the Russian city of Omsk, two teenagers set fire to a Russian Aerospace Forces Mi-8AMTSh helicopter.
They explained their motivation by saying that an unknown person on the internet promised them $20,000 for successfully completing the task.
🔥The approximate cost of such a helicopter is $17,000,000.

 

https://www.threads.net/@nickmelnick.osint/post/DAR4uPEoyT2?xmt=AQGz9V2Pq0lYG2a_xWBJJejfNlgZaWzgrElxQIVSlG5pfg

🇺🇦⚡️🇷🇺Another destroyed Russian arsenal with thousands of tons of ammunition.
This is the 23rd arsenal of the Main Artillery Directorate of the Russian Ministry of Defense near the village of Oktyabrsky in the Tver region.
The site is far from residential areas, which is why no videos have been published so far.
🫡But luckily, the satellite sees everything.

[MillerEP 30307]

https://www.threads.net/@ghostoflviv_/post/DAR29YUS6KD?xmt=AQGz9V2Pq0lYG2a_xWBJJejfNlgZaWzgrElxQIVSlG5pfg

NBC is reporting that the popular social media app TikTok has started to remove Russian propaganda from its platform.
This is intriguing, considering TikTok’s parent company is well documented as being affiliated with the Chinese government.

 

https://www.threads.net/@ghostoflviv_/post/DARDd87PK4D?xmt=AQGzt1dNA2_MwKbHHLz-UIYrtyRS47V8C7BkOmmdZwGy9w

BREAKING: US House and Senate agrees to move the timeline of expiring money to Ukraine by a year.
Ukraine now has until Sept 2025 to use the funds from the original Ukraine Supplemental Bill from April of 2024.
The vote hasn’t passed yet but has been agreed to and is expected to pass without delay.

 

^I hope it passes

[Armybrat 40630]

8 hours ago, MissingInAction said:

Yea, but can you fuck it?

Ask Steel Shank.

[atomheartbevo 89295]

1 hour ago, MillerEP said:

https://www.threads.net/@nickmelnick.osint/post/DAQsB2xoHpA?xmt=AQGzECub_NLyzSQX8GljXQ_kXJpQ2Ga2wKx5lTi2ntZmqg

⚡️In the Russian city of Omsk, two teenagers set fire to a Russian Aerospace Forces Mi-8AMTSh helicopter.
They explained their motivation by saying that an unknown person on the internet promised them $20,000 for successfully completing the task.
🔥The approximate cost of such a helicopter is $17,000,000.

I get that teens will do stupid shit for internet points or money, but I sometimes wonder if this is Ukrainian special operations folks.

But then Omsk is up against Kazakhstan, so it's pretty fucking far away.

[MillerEP 30307]

https://www.threads.net/@kyivindependent_official/post/DARFQIctLKy?xmt=AQGzmBs1UEkKSIIt409g-7NTkOKTVJR7fHSMUFZR-HtqDA

⚡️Telegram to disclose to authorities phone numbers, IP addresses of those who violate messenger's rules.
Personal information will be provided to the authorities by "valid legal requests," Telegram CEO Pavel Durov said on Sept. 23.

 

https://www.threads.net/@kyivindependent_official/post/DASCMd6R9f9?xmt=AQGzmBs1UEkKSIIt409g-7NTkOKTVJR7fHSMUFZR-HtqDA

⚡️Zelensky meets US congressional delegation, urges continued support and outlines Ukraine’s victory plan.
President Volodymyr Zelensky met with a bipartisan U.S. congressional delegation on Sept. 23, including Senators Ben Cardin, Dan Sullivan, Chris Murphy, and Congressman Gregory Meeks, to express gratitude for their critical support of Ukraine.

[MagicSoccerSpray 1725]

 

[SL Xpress 7503]

7 hours ago, PTINS said:

Others here have answered more completely.

I look at it very simply...how many of each does Russia have?

1.  Leaders, 1, Putin

2a. Nuclear Power Plants, #?

2b. Conventional Power Plants, #?

3. Ammo Depots 10-12

4. Air Bases #?, 50-100?, planes???

5. Navy Bases #?, only Crimea/Sevastopol really matters

6. Tanks, vehicles, troops, etc. a whole bunch of everything else...

#1 & 2 a&b are off limits, for good reason.

Given the smallish number of potential targets, hitting the ammo depots gives you the ... most bang for for the bucks.

Ukraine's ingenuity in progressing their offensive capabilities cannot be understated.

Based on the following, everything in western Russia is within range.

The first plot shows the Ammo Depots referenced in this thread, and those of which have been targeted.

The second plot is the same plot, adding the Oil Refineries that have been targeted. 

Great summary.

Russia's dependence on rail really reduces the practical size of Russia's infrastructure, and Google Earth has brought spy satellite capability to your desk top.  Sprinkle it with some homemade weapons, and a big badda boom!

Zeihan is now reading Surly. Does not mean that I will read Zeihan.

My comments below are not meant to inflame or be argumentative, but, given Surly, ...

They are also not meant as a direct response to what was posted. The posts were thought provoking, and this was a convenient way to offer additional information. 

The US has always been isolationist, ... except when it was in our best interest to intervene.

After WWII, with our new military capability and vastly superior economic power, the US "projected" our influence across the globe. By the early 70's, British Petroleum, Royal Dutch Shell, and the US dominated the world oil production portfolio. Texas was but a subset of that mindset, political power without the military and economic influence.

By far, the US had the largest oil refining capacity in the world, which was the touch point for most consumers. The US consumption was much greater than the production, with foreign imports satisfying the imbalance. A substantial portion of US oil imports, and of the refining capacity, was to serve the international markets. Our consumption on paper included consumption that happened elsewhere.

The Arab Oil Embargo in 1973 derailed that freight train.

The growing world economy and insatiable thirst for drastically energy shifted the power profile, and transfer of wealth, from the consumers to the producers. The US policies of regulating domestic oil and gas prices did not work in a global market.

Right or wrong, the US Oil & Gas Industry, became the lighting rod for everything that was wrong, and Texas was the focal point.

"Drive 75 and freeze them alive!" certainly didn't help that mindset.

Right or wrong, everything the US Oil & Gas Industry did, the US was against. The Existential domestic fight for survival compromised their worldwide influence on a critical commodity and created a power vacumn that invited other "outside" influences from across the globe. 

Over time, Iran, China and Russia, filled that void, and here we are. 

...to do the right thing ...once we've exhausted all other possibilities.

(see below)

Our Au Pairs (no pics. stop reading here) from Germany (2) , Norway and South Africa gained a lot of weight in the first 9-10 months they were here, and lost most of it before they went home. Annika from Finland never gained the weight.

Exposure to Texas BBQ, Mexican food and cajun food tends to do that.

The first time Heike saw us eating oysters and gumbo at Willie G's on Post Oak, she was astonished, scared and ready to go back home. I took her to HEB and it took forever to get through the produce area, she wanted to know what each thing was, most of which I didn't know. Why do you need so many kinds of apples? 

Laila from Norway gained 70 lbs and lost 60 of it her last 2 months. Her description of Norwegian food, was "food without spices."

One thing they all had in common. If they put it on their plate, they ate it. They did not waste food.

We always made them their favorite meals before they left. It was looked like a combination of a free buffet and a last meal on death row, head down and shoveling down the food like there was no tomorrow.

They all took a lot spices home with them.

Crawfish without the crawfish boil spices? Fuck that shit!

When I graduated in '79, I had to write a speech on the biggest challenges we faced as college graduates.  Three Mile Island and the Iranian Revolution topped the news, and as a Mechanical Engineering graduate - (Energy & Fluid systems), I talked about energy production. Duh!!!

(I've realized over the years, that growing up as an Air Force Brat expanded my horizons and exposed me to many things. At the same time, growing up on an Air Force Base also was a very sanitized, and protected existence, with everything I was exposed to carefully selected by others, for a reason. The NCO Club was next to the Bowling Alley, and the Officer's Club was next to the Gold Course. That was the only class distinction I saw til I moved back to Texas when I was 10 years old. I never really felt deprived until I came to UT, and was exposed to differences between the haves and the have nots.)  

After 40-50 years, energy production and supply and demand is still a challenge. Some things changed, and some things have not.   

Ignorance people are still ignorant. And bullies still pick on little kids.

The people of the Second Army of the World, and billions of people don't don't have indoor plumbing and burn coal in their homes for cooking and heat. They burn coal without any alternative.

The natural progression should be from freezing to death -> burn wood -> burn coal -> burn oil - burn gas-> ???, with a layering of nuclear power and renewable's where its practical and economics support doing so. Widespread US consumption of natural gas has happened in my lifetime, and half the world has never seen the benefits of natural gas, yet the global mindset is adamant that we need to stop using it. 

Because "we" have options. Most people don't. 

We, the US, prefer to be isolationists, until it suits us to be something else.

We, the US, are an economic and industrial powerhouse, rich in resources and isolated geographically. We have projected our ideals and beliefs on a world, that really has little in common with us.

The freedoms we sometimes take for granted become more cherished when we see how hard others have to fight to get them in the first place. 

Powerful stuff. I'm paraphrasing "Your work, the work of 400 people, is saving millions of Ukrainians."

I'm betting Zelensky looks at that factory, and thinks ...

 

I would say the American people have always been isolationist. The political leaders not so much. But it's virtually always been a good political position for the voting public to keep us out of foreign conflicts. It's rarely been a good policy to advocate for war. Not even for WWII, and that should have been an easy one. No one has been elected for advocating getting involved in foreign conflicts. 

[BamaATL 16592]

2 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

I would say the American people have always been isolationist. The political leaders not so much. But it's virtually always been a good political position for the voting public to keep us out of foreign conflicts. It's rarely been a good policy to advocate for war. Not even for WWII, and that should have been an easy one. No one has been elected for advocating getting involved in foreign conflicts. 

It's always going to be difficult to get people to see not only beyond their own horizon, but all the way to another continent.  Even then, for ordinary people that don't read the news daily, or get it from muddled sources, it gets complicated.  Basically its tough, and always has been tough, to get normies to understand how things can be bad while still being pretty great here.  

[MagicSoccerSpray 1725]

 

[SL Xpress 7503]

2 hours ago, BamaATL said:

It's always going to be difficult to get people to see not only beyond their own horizon, but all the way to another continent.  Even then, for ordinary people that don't read the news daily, or get it from muddled sources, it gets complicated.  Basically its tough, and always has been tough, to get normies to understand how things can be bad while still being pretty great here.  

It's still peculiarly American. There are understandable reasons for it, but the average American is grossly ignorant of what goes on in the world - and not really that curious about it. It's particularly peculiar when the United States has been the dominant player in world affairs at least since post WWII. 

Alexis de Toqueville commented on it in the 1830s. This isn't new.

Social media has been a factor, but for the most part it simply creates echo chambers that tell people what they want to hear anyway. What a whole lot of people want to hear about at their core is that Americans are taking care of Americans first. Why in the world are we even getting involved in all this other stuff? 

[Macanudo 12915]

3 hours ago, SL Xpress said:

It's still peculiarly American. There are understandable reasons for it, but the average American is grossly ignorant of what goes on in the world - and not really that curious about it. It's particularly peculiar when the United States has been the dominant player in world affairs at least since post WWII. 

 

This has always bugged me a lot.  I don't expect people to be completely aware of what is going on with the French and the Sahel but I do wish more people hand a general idea of what was going on in the rest of the world.  But the average American is more interested in the Masked Singer and Survivor.

[atomheartbevo 89295]

I swear, Zeihan puts out videos just to rub it in that he moved from Austin to Colorado.

[Trey3216 15319]

On 9/21/2024 at 9:25 AM, BamaATL said:

Or some sort of weird aquatic sexual feat.  "Man I met this hot chick at the beach and before I knew it, we were in the water pulling a triple loaded Neptune!"  

Aquatic sexual feet?  

 

Edited September 24 by Trey3216

[Trey3216 15319]

16 hours ago, PTINS said:

Others here have answered more completely.

I look at it very simply...how many of each does Russia have?

1.  Leaders, 1, Putin

2a. Nuclear Power Plants, #?

2b. Conventional Power Plants, #?

3. Ammo Depots 10-12

4. Air Bases #?, 50-100?, planes???

5. Navy Bases #?, only Crimea/Sevastopol really matters

6. Tanks, vehicles, troops, etc. a whole bunch of everything else...

#1 & 2 a&b are off limits, for good reason.

Given the smallish number of potential targets, hitting the ammo depots gives you the ... most bang for for the bucks.

Ukraine's ingenuity in progressing their offensive capabilities cannot be understated.

Based on the following, everything in western Russia is within range.

The first plot shows the Ammo Depots referenced in this thread, and those of which have been targeted.

The second plot is the same plot, adding the Oil Refineries that have been targeted. 

Great summary.

Russia's dependence on rail really reduces the practical size of Russia's infrastructure, and Google Earth has brought spy satellite capability to your desk top.  Sprinkle it with some homemade weapons, and a big badda boom!

Zeihan is now reading Surly. Does not mean that I will read Zeihan.

My comments below are not meant to inflame or be argumentative, but, given Surly, ...

They are also not meant as a direct response to what was posted. The posts were thought provoking, and this was a convenient way to offer additional information. 

The US has always been isolationist, ... except when it was in our best interest to intervene.

After WWII, with our new military capability and vastly superior economic power, the US "projected" our influence across the globe. By the early 70's, British Petroleum, Royal Dutch Shell, and the US dominated the world oil production portfolio. Texas was but a subset of that mindset, political power without the military and economic influence.

By far, the US had the largest oil refining capacity in the world, which was the touch point for most consumers. The US consumption was much greater than the production, with foreign imports satisfying the imbalance. A substantial portion of US oil imports, and of the refining capacity, was to serve the international markets. Our consumption on paper included consumption that happened elsewhere.

The Arab Oil Embargo in 1973 derailed that freight train.

The growing world economy and insatiable thirst for drastically energy shifted the power profile, and transfer of wealth, from the consumers to the producers. The US policies of regulating domestic oil and gas prices did not work in a global market.

Right or wrong, the US Oil & Gas Industry, became the lighting rod for everything that was wrong, and Texas was the focal point.

"Drive 75 and freeze them alive!" certainly didn't help that mindset.

Right or wrong, everything the US Oil & Gas Industry did, the US was against. The Existential domestic fight for survival compromised their worldwide influence on a critical commodity and created a power vacumn that invited other "outside" influences from across the globe. 

Over time, Iran, China and Russia, filled that void, and here we are. 

...to do the right thing ...once we've exhausted all other possibilities.

(see below)

Our Au Pairs (no pics. stop reading here) from Germany (2) , Norway and South Africa gained a lot of weight in the first 9-10 months they were here, and lost most of it before they went home. Annika from Finland never gained the weight.

Exposure to Texas BBQ, Mexican food and cajun food tends to do that.

The first time Heike saw us eating oysters and gumbo at Willie G's on Post Oak, she was astonished, scared and ready to go back home. I took her to HEB and it took forever to get through the produce area, she wanted to know what each thing was, most of which I didn't know. Why do you need so many kinds of apples? 

Laila from Norway gained 70 lbs and lost 60 of it her last 2 months. Her description of Norwegian food, was "food without spices."

One thing they all had in common. If they put it on their plate, they ate it. They did not waste food.

We always made them their favorite meals before they left. It was looked like a combination of a free buffet and a last meal on death row, head down and shoveling down the food like there was no tomorrow.

They all took a lot spices home with them.

Crawfish without the crawfish boil spices? Fuck that shit!

When I graduated in '79, I had to write a speech on the biggest challenges we faced as college graduates.  Three Mile Island and the Iranian Revolution topped the news, and as a Mechanical Engineering graduate - (Energy & Fluid systems), I talked about energy production. Duh!!!

(I've realized over the years, that growing up as an Air Force Brat expanded my horizons and exposed me to many things. At the same time, growing up on an Air Force Base also was a very sanitized, and protected existence, with everything I was exposed to carefully selected by others, for a reason. The NCO Club was next to the Bowling Alley, and the Officer's Club was next to the Gold Course. That was the only class distinction I saw til I moved back to Texas when I was 10 years old. I never really felt deprived until I came to UT, and was exposed to differences between the haves and the have nots.)  

After 40-50 years, energy production and supply and demand is still a challenge. Some things changed, and some things have not.   

Ignorance people are still ignorant. And bullies still pick on little kids.

The people of the Second Army of the World, and billions of people don't don't have indoor plumbing and burn coal in their homes for cooking and heat. They burn coal without any alternative.

The natural progression should be from freezing to death -> burn wood -> burn coal -> burn oil - burn gas-> ???, with a layering of nuclear power and renewable's where its practical and economics support doing so. Widespread US consumption of natural gas has happened in my lifetime, and half the world has never seen the benefits of natural gas, yet the global mindset is adamant that we need to stop using it. 

Because "we" have options. Most people don't. 

We, the US, prefer to be isolationists, until it suits us to be something else.

We, the US, are an economic and industrial powerhouse, rich in resources and isolated geographically. We have projected our ideals and beliefs on a world, that really has little in common with us.

The freedoms we sometimes take for granted become more cherished when we see how hard others have to fight to get them in the first place. 

Powerful stuff. I'm paraphrasing "Your work, the work of 400 people, is saving millions of Ukrainians."

I'm betting Zelensky looks at that factory, and thinks ...

 

I firmly, 100% believe that US refining capacity being based on the crude grades that come from the Middle East (and venezuela) is 100% dedicated to intentionally running them out of oil as fast as we can possibly make it happen.  

[Schulz2.0 28703]

59 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

I swear, Zeihan puts out videos just to rub it in that he moved from Austin to Colorado.

He's just like me!

[KYHorn 16751]

 

 

 Russians

 

  

[PTINS 3436]

28 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

I firmly, 100% believe that US refining capacity being based on the crude grades that come from the Middle East (and venezuela) is 100% dedicated to intentionally running them out of oil as fast as we can possibly make it happen.  

Not sure if any place has ever run out of oil, but I understand your tongue-in-cheek point.

The last wave of US refining modernization in the 80's-90's saw a shift in refining capacity from a domestic slate of a lighter, sweeter crude oil to a foreign slate of heavier, sour crude oil. The US production was continuing to decline and the production growth was coming from the middle east and South America.

When the US learned how to extract oil from shale, drilling and fracturing a 10,000 foot horizontal lateral instead of drilling vertically though the 100 foot seam, domestic production went from the "end of the Permian Basin" to the US being self sufficient in oil production for the 50+ years. Though the production volumes are much higher, it is a much lighter slate that yielded lower quantities of transportation fuels than the heavier crude slate.

To maximize refining yields, the US imports the heavier crude oil and exports the "excess" higher oil.

In the graphic below, the oil produced in the Permian (Delaware & Midland Basin's) is similar to Eagle Ford (South Texas)- Bakken (North Dakota) grades. The imported crude, not unlike Jed Clampett's bubbling crude, would be heavier than the Canadian Crude.  

[PTINS 3436]

2 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

I swear, Zeihan puts out videos just to rub it in that he moved from Austin to Colorado.

If he utilized just one graphic to supplement his yapping, I might actually listen to him.

I went to Rocky Mountain National Park once a month for 3 years; I don't need to his mug interrupting the natural beauty.

(There is also the reality, if my roots weren't in Texas, I'd live in Colorado.)

[RDCanecutter 26169]

9 hours ago, MagicSoccerSpray said:

 

TLDR so I don't have to listen to that twit?

[atomheartbevo 89295]

28 minutes ago, RDCanecutter said:

TLDR so I don't have to listen to that twit?

Ukraine has missiles.  Russia has railroads.

[AUS-97HORN 11578]

11 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Ukraine has missiles.  Russia has railroads.

[Brisketexan 104208]

51 minutes ago, RDCanecutter said:

TLDR so I don't have to listen to that twit?

I'm holding off on my rant about the fucking trend of "let me post a 38 minute video that -- if it was just a text post -- a decent reader could read in 3-4 minutes, and by the way, let me bury the fucking lede/conclusions at some random-ass part of the video."  FFS.  Give me something in writing, with your 2-3 thesis statements and the core basis for each, THEN hit me with the detailed discussion of data and supporting information, that I can read in much less time.

God I hate the "so, there's some interesting news about topic X.....here's a fucking miniseries of videos that, if you watch them, will tell you that X is on the edge of bankruptcy" trend.  Fucking idiot world.

[RDCanecutter 26169]

Just now, Brisketexan said:

I'm holding off on my rant about the fucking trend of "let me post a 38 minute video that -- if it was just a text post -- a decent reader could read in 3-4 minutes, and by the way, let me bury the fucking lede/conclusions at some random-ass part of the video."  FFS.  Give me something in writing, with your 2-3 thesis statements and the core basis for each, THEN hit me with the detailed discussion of data and supporting information, that I can read in much less time.

God I hate the "so, there's some interesting news about topic X.....here's a fucking miniseries of videos that, if you watch them, will tell you that X is on the edge of bankruptcy" trend.  Fucking idiot world.

So you're saying that folks go on too much?

[AUS-97HORN 11578]

13 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

God I hate the "so, there's some interesting news about topic X.....here's a fucking miniseries of videos that, if you watch them, will tell you that X is on the edge of bankruptcy" trend.  Fucking idiot world.

 

11 minutes ago, RDCanecutter said:

So you're saying that folks go on too much?

I believe this is what he was saying:

 

[MillerEP 30307]

https://www.threads.net/@tsua_23/post/DATYSrqIo2b?xmt=AQGzRCEP9mbTifzScn9-JWfUuat1ULW9o4mVBLqWefTxDw

The Ukrainian flag returned to the Vovchansk aggregate plant.
The Main Directorate of Intelligence showed how it was liberated from the occupiers. The whole country has been waiting for good news from Vovchansk for many months.

 

https://www.threads.net/@noelreports/post/DATlYMnNutz?xmt=AQGzRCEP9mbTifzScn9-JWfUuat1ULW9o4mVBLqWefTxDw

Vuhledar, under massive Russian MLRS and artillery attacks..

[Bevo 13467]

25 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

I'm holding off on my rant about the fucking trend of "let me post a 38 minute video that -- if it was just a text post -- a decent reader could read in 3-4 minutes, and by the way, let me bury the fucking lede/conclusions at some random-ass part of the video."  FFS.  Give me something in writing, with your 2-3 thesis statements and the core basis for each, THEN hit me with the detailed discussion of data and supporting information, that I can read in much less time.

God I hate the "so, there's some interesting news about topic X.....here's a fucking miniseries of videos that, if you watch them, will tell you that X is on the edge of bankruptcy" trend.  Fucking idiot world.

Sounds like my CE training. 3hrs for something that could fit on a 3x5 index card.

[Trey3216 15319]

48 minutes ago, Bevo said:

Sounds like my CE training. 3hrs for something that could fit on a 3x5 index card.

God I hate CE training.  Which reminds me, I gotta get 30 hours in before Oct 31.  Yay!  

 

 

[InkaUtexas 25222]

1 hour ago, RDCanecutter said:

So you're saying that folks go on too much?

nope.

[Brisketexan 104208]

1 hour ago, RDCanecutter said:

So you're saying that folks go on too much?

Pssh.  Like verbose message board posters are even a thing.

[MagicSoccerSpray 1725]

2 hours ago, RDCanecutter said:

TLDR so I don't have to listen to that twit?

 

1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

I'm holding off on my rant about the fucking trend of "let me post a 38 minute video that -- if it was just a text post -- a decent reader could read in 3-4 minutes, and by the way, let me bury the fucking lede/conclusions at some random-ass part of the video."  FFS.  Give me something in writing, with your 2-3 thesis statements and the core basis for each, THEN hit me with the detailed discussion of data and supporting information, that I can read in much less time.

God I hate the "so, there's some interesting news about topic X.....here's a fucking miniseries of videos that, if you watch them, will tell you that X is on the edge of bankruptcy" trend.  Fucking idiot world.

 

1 hour ago, RDCanecutter said:

So you're saying that folks go on too much?

 

It's a 7 minute video. Watch it at 1.25x or 1.5x if your adhd can't handle that.

[B00M 6238]

2 hours ago, RDCanecutter said:

TLDR so I don't have to listen to that twit?

I listened to it yesterday while driving so if I recall… Remember about a week ago when Ukraine hit that first munitions depot and it looked like an atomic bomb detonated? There’s rumor that a Russian train full of weapons was offloading as the Ukrainian missiles hit. This suggests that when the Ukrainians advanced into Kursk, they gained access to train schedules. Trains are basically the only thing Russia knows about logistics. If Ukraine can interfere with Russian trains and ammunition, they can butt fuck Russia’s ability to wage a war.

more or less 

[KYHorn 16751]

Bad news has been circulating for a few days:

 

 According to the Washington Post, the United States believes that Ukraine has not made a “compelling case” for permission to strike deep into Russia with American weapons. “Ukraine is better off focusing on destroying targets in Crimea. Strikes on Russia are not worth the risk of escalation.” - American officials. 

Edited September 24 by KYHorn

[atomheartbevo 89295]

 

[Bevo 13467]

7 minutes ago, KYHorn said:

 According to the Washington Post, the United States believes that Ukraine has not made a “compelling case” for permission to strike deep into Russia with American weapons. “Ukraine is better off focusing on destroying targets in Crimea. Strikes on Russia are not worth the risk of escalation.” - American officials. 

 

[Deej 76352]

8 minutes ago, KYHorn said:

 According to the Washington Post, the United States believes that Ukraine has not made a “compelling case” for permission to strike deep into Russia with American weapons. “Ukraine is better off focusing on destroying targets in Crimea. Strikes on Russia are not worth the risk of escalation.” - American officials. 

[DigglerontheHoof 20935]

Fuck the Biden administration on this.  God fucking damnit. 

[utee94 15729]

1 hour ago, KYHorn said:

 According to the Washington Post, the United States believes that Ukraine has not made a “compelling case” for permission to strike deep into Russia with American weapons. “Ukraine is better off focusing on destroying targets in Crimea. Strikes on Russia are not worth the risk of escalation.” - American officials. 

"American officials seem like they suck."

-American Citizens

 

[pops 6964]

My only hope is that's what we are saying publicly but not privately.  But I'm not holding my breath. That fucking blows. 

[InkaUtexas 25222]

1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

 

Was hoping they used this song.