Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[Viper 12159]

Check out this thread at Thread Reader App. https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1853917002580021457.html

 

 

Western media & political commentary are dominated by "doomers" predicting short & long term outcomes on the 'inexhaustibility' of Russia's personnel & equipment pools, despite overwhelming evidence that Russia is struggling badly.

Reality:
Russia is in a crisis of loss. 🧵
1/

The following are the things I've been tracking for some time:

1. The Russians are losing an infantry division every week to 10 days in terms of soldiers at a rate of between with a 1,100 to 1,700 and associated equipment.

2/

2. The Russian artillery is getting shorter ranged over time from losing the ability to make barrels and liners for 152mm guns. We are seeing literal WW2 122mm artillery pieces, presumably from North Korean stocks, in the Donbas.

3/

3. Half of Russians artillery shells in 2024 are from the DPRK. AFU reports RuAF is only outshooting them 2-to-1 in total shell count. While ROK military intelligence says the DPRK only has another 3 months of artillery ammo left to send to Russia at current rates.

4/

4. Training duration of replacement troops is getting shorter by the month. This means Russian replacements are less able to survive in combat. The average mobik now gets 7-to-10 days of training and most die in the first month.

5/

5.The Russians are repurposing troops from other arms as infantry, despite loss of capabilities like maintainers for nuclear rocket forces or naval seapower or tactical airpower.

6/

All of the above means that Russia has burned out its pre-war trainers and it is darned near through its ex-Soviet reserves of war gear.

The Russian economy is the size of Italy's in terms of GDP and most of the easily spent economic surplus is from oil and gas.

7/

Russia cannot build enough replacement war gear or munitions after the ex-Soviet stocks are gone to maintain the current pace of losses.

8/

Confirmed Russian battlefield equipment losses reach 2-year highRead morehttps://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/confirmed-russian-battlefield-equipment-losses-1730799222.html

Furthermore, the Russian rail system is being overused the way the US rail system was in WW2.

Its worse, since the Russian rail monopoly was run like a family business. They were stealing from the maintenance & engine replacement budgets since 2013.

9/

Unroll available on Thread Reader

That is when the Rail monopoly abolished the maintenance department because they replaced old rail bearing with Western ones lasting 20 time longer.

The wear out time for those bearing has arrived.

10/

Unroll available on Thread Reader

The Russian railway system has been at 100% usage since the late summer of 2021.

It's total tonnage carrying capacity has fallen by 1/5 from lack of maintenance & over use. Look closely at the difference between 2021 and 2024 to date.

Chart, H/T @Prune602
11/

Finally, the Russian national fund runs out by early 2025 and no one is buying Russian national debt even at 21% interest rates.  

See:


12/

This means that Russia has to print money to keep the war going and the prices of everything in Russia right now are far higher than official statistics.

13/

The summation of all trends lands in the 1st quarter of 2025.

What this is telling my gut is that the Russian economy will be in in the beginning of a 1990's scale financial/economic crisis.



14/14 End

Unroll available on Thread Reader

 

 

 

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[atomheartbevo 90110]

[Captainant 27989]

My condolences to the brave people of Ukraine. We are a stupid and hateful people. 

[atomheartbevo 90110]

1 hour ago, Captainant said:

My condolences to the brave people of Ukraine. We are a stupid and hateful people. 

It could get ugly, but it's 2024 and Russia is relying on North Korean cannon fodder who are picking up internet porn addictions (and who are probably not the best and brightest in North Korea's armed forces - they maybe "undesirables" that Lil Kim wants gone). Things are going pretty poorly for Russia on the manpower front and thanks to demographic changes since the 80s, fewer and fewer men are reaching conscription-age every year (if you believe Zeihan, that's why Putin launched it in 2022 - he couldn't wait any longer due to declining demographics).

I believe that if Putin thought he could start drafting more men out of Moscow/St. Petersburg/etc., without starting riots or causing more economic problems, he would have already done it.  Moscow/St. Pete's areas accounts for over 20% of Russia's population.

They can hold Crimea/Donbass for the time being (until Ukraine drops then Kerch bridge), but if they truly backed off on attacking Ukraine's energy infrastructure because Ukraine was hurting them as bad or worse, that means Ukraine always has that card to play, and Ukraine has some homegrown stuff coming online over the coming months/year.

And NATO has been ramping up their armaments production and arguably preparing for the possibility that the US would withdraw from the world's stage and being a superpower.

Edited November 6 by atomheartbevo

[b_p 450]

Take the CR shit to the CR

[B00M 6587]

4 hours ago, achooloco said:

Apologies to Ukraine. You died for nothing. Sue for peace and take what you can. We suck as a nation. Just end this war and prepare for the next. That’s our only hope 

You think that’s the approach? 

no matter what the US doesn’t do to support Ukraine, Russia still has an inflation problem, a manpower problem, and an equipment problem. If Europe steps their game up, Ukraine still has this. 

[Viper 12159]

2 hours ago, Captainant said:

Ukraine is about to lose all of its American support, which will signal to the rest of the pro democracy world that they should stop too. That's not CR, that's folding a winning hand because the new guy likes Putin

I don't think that's a given yet. Let's take a step back from the my team lost doomerism and react to actual facts and actions to go all dramatic. 

Edited November 6 by Viper
emphasis on the yet

[Captainant 27989]

2 minutes ago, Viper said:

I don't think that's a given yet. Let's take a step back from the my team lost doomerism and react to actual facts and actions to go all dramatic. 

https://www.reuters.com/world/russias-medvedev-says-trump-presidency-would-be-blow-ukraine-2024-11-06/

MOSCOW, Nov 6 (Reuters) - The Kremlin reacted cautiously on Wednesday after Donald Trump declared victory in the U.S. presidential election, saying the U.S. was still a hostile state and that time would tell if Trump rhetoric on ending the Ukraine war translated into reality.

Edited November 6 by Captainant

[Viper 12159]

 

2/
1. Played right, it can actually help us in Ukraine better than under the Biden administration.  Also remember that Ryzzland is now much weaker than in Trump's first term, and Trump doesn't hold back when he wants something

- If the person I believe becomes the new administration's defense minister, the pro-Ukraine thinking will be maintained.   Also, most of the Republican senators are pro-Ukraine, as well as the generals.  This brings us to the next point..

2. The Biden administration, with Biden himself at the head, has de facto tied us back by, despite the opposition of the US generals and military advisers, by forbidding us to use the weapons we received and bought as we ourselves want.  
In addition, many aid packages have been decided upon, but the truth is that most are still undelivered.  So a lot of noise but little workshop.

3. Even under Trump, the US wants to maintain its status as the only superpower on earth, for this he needs allies.  Now that he has a straight flush, i.e. the Republicans have a majority in the House of Representatives, the Senate, the presidency and the Supreme Court, he can pass decisions without frills

3/

Let's see the development until the installation of Trump, but I think it will be a boost for us.

 

- So what should we be worried about?

 

 1. The German Chancellor's proposal on the so-called Finlandization of Ukraine.

 

This is the most horrible thing that can happen, because we do not have the factors in Ukraine that made it possible for Finland to balance on the tightrope and at the same time gain financially from it. 

 

 We haven't

 -a competent president like Kekkonen, who was also very patriotic

 -a corruption-free administration in order to manage and pilot the right way among all the mines that exist in a finlandization

 -a heterogeneous population that would support the process (Finland had it)

 -allies who would support us, Finland had the Nordic countries behind it during the politically difficult years.

 2. Still incompetent commanders who cause us to lose positions unnecessarily.

 3. The corruption

 4. The spies and dissidents/fifth columnists among our population

 5. Eu´s  promising but inability to get decisions. 

 Now the EU must take its own responsibility for security policy and not cheat on the US, but are they capable of this? The EU's threat is a weakened Ukraine, but have they really realized this?

 

 

[Parliament 14392]

How much of the allocated weapons aid is still left?  How long will that money last?

We need Russia's economy to collapse.  Fast.

[Bevo 13655]

14 minutes ago, Parliament said:

We need Russia's economy to collapse.  Fast.

 

Correct. This has really been the only play since the Biden administration forbid Ukraine from using weapons on certain targets and tied their hands.

The bigger issue is what will happen in Ukraine and Russia when the US turns its attention towards Iran's nuclear program. NATO will want to focus on Russia. The US will want to focus on the Middle East.

[b_p 450]

You fuckers negging me can put your tampons back in and go back to the CR.  This is a news thread.

[Bevo 13655]

Nov. 5

Key Takeaways:

• The first North Korean forces have likely officially engaged in combat against Ukrainian troops in Kursk Oblast.
• The Kremlin appointed the first-ever "Time of Heroes" program participant to a federal-level position, furthering its ongoing effort to staff government positions with pro-war veterans and set long-term conditions for the militarization of Russian government bodies from local to federal levels.
• Russia launched two Iranian-made satellites into orbit on November 5 via a Russian space-launch vehicle, furthering a trend of Russian-Iranian bilateral space cooperation.
• Russian forces recently advanced southeast of Kupyansk, northwest of Kreminna, in Chasiv Yar, near Toretsk, southeast of Pokrovsk, northeast of Kurakhove, near Vuhledar, and north of Robotyne.
• Ukrainian forces recently regained lost positions south of Chasiv Yar.
• The Russian military is struggling to maintain a sufficient number of quality personnel within traditionally elite forces.

 

https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-5-2024

 

[troph 24929]

Thanks guys for keeping this thread tight. Those of us that don’t participate with news should continue to lurk. A lot of moving parts let’s hope the good guys closest to this conflict and their neighbors step up. A stronger pro-Democracy Europe is good for all of us. 

[atomheartbevo 90110]

3 hours ago, Captainant said:

which will signal to the rest of the pro democracy world that they should stop too.

I don’t think Europe will stop.  They have ramped up too much and they know they can’t back down to Putin, and they also know he won’t attack them.

I’m not even sure Russia could rein in Belarus if it broke away.

1 hour ago, Parliament said:

We need Russia's economy to collapse.  Fast.

If they agreed to stop attacking Ukraine’s energy infrastructure in return for Ukraine doing the same, then I’d say they have some huge problems. Putin liked going after their infrastructure,

[Chad Fuck 17872]

9 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

It could get ugly, but it's 2024 and Russia is relying on North Korean cannon fodder who are picking up internet porn addictions (and who are probably not the best and brightest in North Korea's armed forces - they maybe "undesirables" that Lil Kim wants gone). Things are going pretty poorly for Russia on the manpower front and thanks to demographic changes since the 80s, fewer and fewer men are reaching conscription-age every year (if you believe Zeihan, that's why Putin launched it in 2022 - he couldn't wait any longer due to declining demographics).

I believe that if Putin thought he could start drafting more men out of Moscow/St. Petersburg/etc., without starting riots or causing more economic problems, he would have already done it.  Moscow/St. Pete's areas accounts for over 20% of Russia's population.

They can hold Crimea/Donbass for the time being (until Ukraine drops then Kerch bridge), but if they truly backed off on attacking Ukraine's energy infrastructure because Ukraine was hurting them as bad or worse, that means Ukraine always has that card to play, and Ukraine has some homegrown stuff coming online over the coming months/year.

And NATO has been ramping up their armaments production and arguably preparing for the possibility that the US would withdraw from the world's stage and being a superpower.

[Chad Fuck 17872]

4 hours ago, B00M said:

You think that’s the approach? 

no matter what the US doesn’t do to support Ukraine, Russia still has an inflation problem, a manpower problem, and an equipment problem. If Europe steps their game up, Ukraine still has this. 

This.  It really is on Europe to deal with their Russia problem.  The US could, but won't, do it for them.

[Bevo 13655]

16 minutes ago, Chad Fuck said:

This.  It really is on Europe to deal with their Russia problem.  The US could, but won't, do it for them.

 

 

I don't foresee a Russia problem for Europe. Russia has way too many internal problems to go after a NATO country. Their best hope is to buddy with countries like Hungary. And their best hope for global destabilization is providing weapons technology to N. Korea and Iran. Thus, the problem is pretty much isolated to Ukraine and Russia with some lingering issues with Belarus and Moldova and Transnistria. It sucks but I think Germany and the US wanted Russian oil and gas and were too worried about escalation and destabilization within Russia to provide Ukraine with the resources and more importantly support it needed to win.

Once it became a war of attrition, Ukraine couldn't win militarily. If Ukraine went towards Moscow  and possibly Crimea or made too many strides, I think Russia would escalate. Putin can't allow defeat. Ukraine's best hope became a breakdown within Russia.

And, I still think that is where things stand today, regardless of US politics - Germany and US want to weaken Russia but not defeat Russia while much of the public wants to see Russian tyranny end with a resurgent and democratic Ukraine.

[Nivek 17055]

We will be sending equipment to Russia and manufacturing russian shells.  

[InkaUtexas 26383]

Putin won't take Ukraine. NATO won't allow that. There will be a "settlement" and Russia will go harder, no lube, on undermining anyone who will not enter their sphere. The losses they have taken are impacting more than just ukraine though. When, and it is not a question of if, the Caucus rise up, what does he do? Not much really. So I think we see a movement of independence in these areas.

Within the EU, more political fuckery, but no "invasion" is on the horizon. Should Europe drop its guard? No. Will they go back to Russian energy? Yes.

 

21 minutes ago, Nivek said:

We will be sending equipment to Russia and manufacturing russian shells.  

Different calibers to start with. So nope.

[Nivek 17055]

6 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Different calibers to start with. So nope.

They can switch it up and/or open new factories.

[InkaUtexas 26383]

16 minutes ago, Nivek said:

They can switch it up and/or open new factories.

That takes a bit of time. Of course I am sure there are contractors who would love that. Arty shells is not the issue. Removing sanctions on companies that make components, well that is different. Starlink for all BMP's

[Nivek 17055]

4 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

That takes a bit of time. Of course I am sure there are contractors who would love that. Arty shells is not the issue. Removing sanctions on companies that make components, well that is different. Starlink for all BMP's

Shit, we might be selling them the Nimitz class carriers instead of decommissioning them.    

[MillerEP 30576]

https://www.threads.net/@_nickmelnick/post/DCCnuUWoeHt?xmt=AQGzrl2MsiyI5AfwNWJVsdFESmVeaMwn8pNdTSOX4lHsUg

⚡️A Ukrainian kamikaze drone based on the A-22 aircraft struck the parking area of Russian Caspian Flotilla warships.

📍 Kaspiysk (Dagestan)

The drone traveled over 1,100 kilometers.

🤔I don’t think this attack caused significant damage to the Russian fleet, but the trend is promising.

 

https://www.threads.net/@24hoursofukraine/post/DCCqhk1NYfP?xmt=AQGzrl2MsiyI5AfwNWJVsdFESmVeaMwn8pNdTSOX4lHsUg

One drone attack every 25 minutes—this is the reality for Ukraine.

 

 

[atomheartbevo 90110]

7 hours ago, Nivek said:

We will be sending equipment to Russia and manufacturing russian shells.  

That would have to go through Congress, and even with the pro-Putin contingent, it won't happen. Not even with a dozen Maria Butinas working their way through that group.

At least he's too weak to fuck with any NATO countries militarily and appears to be stretched too thin to even take Georgia. As @InkaUtexas said, it'll be interesting to see what happens if the Caucuses blow up.  There have to be some folks tracking Russia's worsening military and economic problems.

[Parliament 14392]

How about some good news.  Seems North Korean conscripts are no more competent than their Russian allies.

https://www.ukrinform.net/amp/rubric-ato/3924152-russia-suffering-colossal-losses-in-kursk-region-failing-to-break-ukraines-lines-unit-commander.html
 

[Chopper 17362]

8 hours ago, Nivek said:

We will be sending equipment to Russia and manufacturing russian shells.  

Sarcasm noted but I do believe presidential-ordered sanctions will be lifted in a flurry of other bullshit in 2025. 

[BurntEyes 6089]

3 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

That would have to go through Congress, and even with the pro-Putin contingent, it won't happen. Not even with a dozen Maria Butinas working their way through that group.

At least he's too weak to fuck with any NATO countries militarily and appears to be stretched too thin to even take Georgia. As @InkaUtexas said, it'll be interesting to see what happens if the Caucuses blow up.  There have to be some folks tracking Russia's worsening military and economic problems.

Small correction, @InkaUtexas said when, not if the Caucuses blow up. With the vast instability in Moscow financially and their eyes off the prize, I'm with him. That's coming I just don't know a time frame. 

US isn't sending Russia arms.

Will private sector? A possibility, but retooling manufacturing lines isn't an over night or low cost endeavor. Will Moscow have the long term stability and money to make good on those efforts? Questionable. Maybe they make that investment, maybe they don't. I wouldn't, but I don't own any military manufacturing plants.

(damn my sarcasm meter is broken, I blame the election, Putin and Elon)

Edited November 7 by BurntEyes

[InkaUtexas 26383]

No way. The buyers out there for artillery want 155. Few still use the 152mm rounds. No one is gonna make new factories for Russia. After this war ends the only buyers are going to be the Norks, but they have production, and some African countries. NATO is moving to 155.

[atomheartbevo 90110]

30 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

No way. The buyers out there for artillery want 155. Few still use the 152mm rounds. No one is gonna make new factories for Russia. After this war ends the only buyers are going to be the Norks, but they have production, and some African countries. NATO is moving to 155.

The funny thing is, we use 155mm because of decisions the French made in the 1870s and when we entered WWI we apparently used a lot of French arty and decided we didn't want to retool our ammo infrastructure after the war and stayed with it.

Meanwhile, Russia's 152mm is 6 inches, which is the British Imperial Standard and then America's standard God's True Measurement standard.

[atomheartbevo 90110]

1 hour ago, BurntEyes said:

Small correction, @InkaUtexas said when, not if the Caucuses blow up. With the vast instability in Moscow financially and their eyes off the prize, I'm with him. That's coming I just don't know a time frame. 

Yeah, it feels like it's coming. We've already had some skirmishes and shit-talking. If you are independent-minded and have any bit of power in the Caucuses, you gotta be looking at the North Korean troops being brought in and wondering how many more Russian casualties are needed before you move.

I wondered if the noise the Chechens were making about raising a bunch of units for Ukraine was really about them wanting to just raise some new units in general.  They have enough troops deployed to Ukraine to make all the Tik Tok videos they want.

[InkaUtexas 26383]

2 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Yeah, it feels like it's coming. We've already had some skirmishes and shit-talking. If you are independent-minded and have any bit of power in the Caucuses, you gotta be looking at the North Korean troops being brought in and wondering how many more Russian casualties are needed before you move.

I wondered if the noise the Chechens were making about raising a bunch of units for Ukraine was really about them wanting to just raise some new units in general.  They have enough troops deployed to Ukraine to make all the Tik Tok videos they want.

Watch for the Stan's to mobilize. Turkey as well. Ataturk always felt that Turkey should be the dominant power in the Caucus. That legacy may remain. Does this mean a new form of Jannisary moves north? No, it means they push the tribes to break away and look to Turkey to be the protector.

This book gets into it a bit. Setting the East Ablaze: Lenin's Dream of an Empire in Asia, Peter Hopkirk. @BurntEyes, here is one more.

And I have no idea why Russia went 6inches. Legacy of all the British shit they captured after the end of their Civil War? Czar's army had crap from everywhere, and the Russians inherited a lot from both the White Army (UK/French aid) and that we left behind.

Caliber, you finicky bitch.

[UpperWestside 6224]

22 hours ago, B00M said:

You think that’s the approach? 

no matter what the US doesn’t do to support Ukraine, Russia still has an inflation problem, a manpower problem, and an equipment problem. If Europe steps their game up, Ukraine still has this. 

I think Europe will fill the void. The old dislike and disgust towards Russia has never gone away. Poland is not going to abandon them and neither are any of the other countries in Eastern Europe that still have sizable amounts of their populations that suffered under communism. They can tell us to kick rocks on this and put some NATO boots on the ground if that is what it comes to to finally shutdown one of the most backward countries in the entire world.

[UpperWestside 6224]

I am sure @InkaUtexas knows this, but they prefer being called Türkiye now. I get a fair amount of Turks where I work and honestly I like calling it that more than Turkey. Just sounds better. I remember the first guy from there who told me that and I just said “Cool man. Türkiye it is!”

[Schulz2.0 29063]

[InkaUtexas 26383]

3 hours ago, UpperWestside said:

I am sure @InkaUtexas knows this, but they prefer being called Türkiye now. I get a fair amount of Turks where I work and honestly I like calling it that more than Turkey. Just sounds better. I remember the first guy from there who told me that and I just said “Cool man. Türkiye it is!”

Yep. People all over like certain things. For lunch I am going to get Aztlan.

[Braff Zacklin 13672]

1 hour ago, InkaUtexas said:

Yep. People all over like certain things. For lunch I am going to get Aztlan.

You're not going to have any turkey? Is that because it's so close to Thanksgiving, aka Turkey Day?

Oh, well. You're missing out if you've never had turkey in Turkey. Turkish turkey doner kebab is especially delicious.

Of course, the real mystery is how turkeys ended up in Turkey. And will the Turks change its name, just as they did to Constantinople/Byzantium?

[BurntEyes 6089]

20 minutes ago, Braff Zacklin said:

You're not going to have any turkey? Is that because it's so close to Thanksgiving, aka Turkey Day?

Oh, well. You're missing out if you've never had turkey in Turkey. Turkish turkey doner kebab is especially delicious.

Of course, the real mystery is how turkeys ended up in Turkey. And will the Turks change its name, just as they did to Constantinople/Byzantium?

The irony is the Turkey allegedly got its name FROM Turkey. 

It seems like a turnkey solution to the Turkey troubles regarding naming rights to their country.

The Turkey is named from Turkey which is no longer Turkey!

/thread derail (I blame the Indians, from India and the idiots that mistook the Native Americans to be Indians who aren't at all from Turkey. Happy early Thanksgiving!)

#Downwithpieceofshitputin

Edited November 7 by BurntEyes

[InkaUtexas 26383]

You both are assholes. Thank you I needed that laugh.

[InkaUtexas 26383]

7 hours ago, UpperWestside said:

I think Europe will fill the void. The old dislike and disgust towards Russia has never gone away. Poland is not going to abandon them and neither are any of the other countries in Eastern Europe that still have sizable amounts of their populations that suffered under communism. They can tell us to kick rocks on this and put some NATO boots on the ground if that is what it comes to to finally shutdown one of the most backward countries in the entire world.

it is a common perception Western Europe does not like Russia. But that is not always  the case. The shift in who supported it vs. supports it changes as often as Russian leadership. Quite a few reasons, start with resources and the allocation of them. When France and England we always ready to go at each other, they wanted Russia on their side. People, iron, cloth, etc. Sure, some of it was Royal fuckery (bunch of imbred cousins) but it filtered down into society.

As you move east the line gets harder, but Russia always was able to have allies. Ukraine, since this is the focus of the thread, was never immune. I know as Americans we think borders mean culture/language ends, but that is not the case. There are large pro-Russia cultural groups throughout the East. This is not just a legacy of WW2 and the Iron Curtain, deportations, etc. It is history.

[InkaUtexas 26383]

4 hours ago, Braff Zacklin said:

You're not going to have any turkey? Is that because it's so close to Thanksgiving, aka Turkey Day?

Oh, well. You're missing out if you've never had turkey in Turkey. Turkish turkey doner kebab is especially delicious.

Of course, the real mystery is how turkeys ended up in Turkey. And will the Turks change its name, just as they did to Constantinople/Byzantium?

Are you sure it was Byzantium? Um, that was the Empire. City was always Constantinople. Well until it changed.

 

[Braff Zacklin 13672]

4 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Are you sure it was Byzantium? Um, that was the Empire. City was always Constantinople. Well until it changed.

Wrong. It was the Byzantine Empire, but the city was known as Byzantium. Until it wasn't.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Byzantium

[InkaUtexas 26383]

8 minutes ago, Braff Zacklin said:

Wrong. It was the Byzantine Empire, but the city was known as Byzantium. Until it wasn't.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Byzantium

Dammit, my bad. So which is it going to be in 500 years?

[MissingInAction 25318]

20 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Dammit, my bad. So which is it going to be in 500 years?

Surly Town.

[Bevo 13655]

Pavo

[Captainant 27989]

Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaand there's the capitulation offer

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/41884

WSJ: Trump Team Proposes 20-Year Freeze on Ukraine’s NATO Bid in Exchange for Peace

The Wall Street Journal reported that President-elect Donald Trump’s team has drafted a proposal to end the ongoing war in Ukraine war on Thursday. Allegedly the plan includes significant conditions: Ukraine should give up its NATO membership aspirations for at least 20 years, the freezing of the current front lines and the establishment of a demilitarized zone between Russian-held territory and Ukraine.

The plan is said to exclude the possibility of US troops or UN contingents to monitor and enforce any ceasefire, instead suggesting that Kyiv’s European allies - such as Poland, Germany, Britain, and France – should take on the responsibility.

According to the WSJ source within Trump’s team, the US would continue to provide military training and support including weapons to Ukraine to help deter further Russian advances. However, previous reports from Trump’s advisors have hinted at the possibility that Washington could suspend military aid as a way to encourage Kyiv to enter peace negotiations.

[Chad Fuck 17872]

52 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaand there's the capitulation offer

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/41884

WSJ: Trump Team Proposes 20-Year Freeze on Ukraine’s NATO Bid in Exchange for Peace

The Wall Street Journal reported that President-elect Donald Trump’s team has drafted a proposal to end the ongoing war in Ukraine war on Thursday. Allegedly the plan includes significant conditions: Ukraine should give up its NATO membership aspirations for at least 20 years, the freezing of the current front lines and the establishment of a demilitarized zone between Russian-held territory and Ukraine.

The plan is said to exclude the possibility of US troops or UN contingents to monitor and enforce any ceasefire, instead suggesting that Kyiv’s European allies - such as Poland, Germany, Britain, and France – should take on the responsibility.

According to the WSJ source within Trump’s team, the US would continue to provide military training and support including weapons to Ukraine to help deter further Russian advances. However, previous reports from Trump’s advisors have hinted at the possibility that Washington could suspend military aid as a way to encourage Kyiv to enter peace negotiations.

What a pathetic little bitch.

 

[InkaUtexas 26383]

56 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaand there's the capitulation offer

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/41884

WSJ: Trump Team Proposes 20-Year Freeze on Ukraine’s NATO Bid in Exchange for Peace

The Wall Street Journal reported that President-elect Donald Trump’s team has drafted a proposal to end the ongoing war in Ukraine war on Thursday. Allegedly the plan includes significant conditions: Ukraine should give up its NATO membership aspirations for at least 20 years, the freezing of the current front lines and the establishment of a demilitarized zone between Russian-held territory and Ukraine.

The plan is said to exclude the possibility of US troops or UN contingents to monitor and enforce any ceasefire, instead suggesting that Kyiv’s European allies - such as Poland, Germany, Britain, and France – should take on the responsibility.

According to the WSJ source within Trump’s team, the US would continue to provide military training and support including weapons to Ukraine to help deter further Russian advances. However, previous reports from Trump’s advisors have hinted at the possibility that Washington could suspend military aid as a way to encourage Kyiv to enter peace negotiations.

Yep, surrender. But wait there is more. The mission, if non-UN, would be OSCE. That would be EU led, which are NATO members. @956 Worldwide so not like the IFOR Bosnia mission we talked about.

Halt in place? Does this mean Ukraine keeps the Kursk region?

And if Russia or one of its actors shoots up a Poland, German, etc patrol, that is an attack on NATO. There is more to this I am sure.

All they have to do to stop weapons flow is cut the contracts. Pretty simple. Well and then use that $ to federalize the border.

[Saint Austin 745]

I wouldn't have a problem postponing Ukraine's membership in NATO if it meant Russia returning to the 2022 borders, but this deal sucks.

[InkaUtexas 26383]

1 minute ago, Saint Austin said:

I wouldn't have a problem postponing Ukraine's membership in NATO if it meant Russia returning to the 2014 2022 borders, but this deal sucks.

FIFY. And ukraine keeps the Kursk salient. What about rebuilding? So Ukraine gets a fucked nation? Toothless peacekeepers? EU should tell Trump nah, we are not doing that.

This was set up to fail and not be accepted, giving the administration the argument of see, we tried.