Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[MillerEP 30,394]

Another one:

https://www.threads.net/@jayinkyiv/post/DCheYqbOJwi?xmt=AQGzdiLkJOaW5ZU9EO4i2h3aVFvjJm5epQ0YZJIT9KPbjw

Russia is now severing the internet cables on which the US and Europe rely for global communications, two in one day.
Probably no coincidence that Musk has the "solution" via his starlink.
Naive western folks still has no idea what's coming.

 

https://www.threads.net/@jayinkyiv/post/DCgqFoTOGt0?xmt=AQGzdiLkJOaW5ZU9EO4i2h3aVFvjJm5epQ0YZJIT9KPbjw

Bodies in the streets of Odesa right now, after Russians just sent ballistic missiles with cluster munitions warheads into busy city center mid-day.
Countless dead and wounded.

[Brisketexan 104,831]

Putin plans to invade the Baltics.

He will be given a green light to do so by the new administration.  After all, they are really just former soviet republics, Russia is just taking back what was theirs.  

Mark it down, it's pretty close to a lock at this point.

[Chad Fuck 17,610]

11 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Putin plans to invade the Baltics.

He will be given a green light to do so by the new administration.  After all, they are really just former soviet republics, Russia is just taking back what was theirs.  

Mark it down, it's pretty close to a lock at this point.

While being aware of what Putin wants to do, and how we believe a new administration might want to assist him in those endeavors, do we really think Russia is currently capable of handling a two front war where NATO (even sans US) is on the other side given the clusterfuck we're seeing in Ukraine by the worlds "second best" army?

And I'm asking this sincerely.  Can the Russian Army make a serious play for the Baltics?

[DDD Dad 14,292]

15 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

Another one:

https://www.threads.net/@jayinkyiv/post/DCheYqbOJwi?xmt=AQGzdiLkJOaW5ZU9EO4i2h3aVFvjJm5epQ0YZJIT9KPbjw

Russia is now severing the internet cables on which the US and Europe rely for global communications, two in one day.
Probably no coincidence that Musk has the "solution" via his starlink.
Naive western folks still has no idea what's coming.

[Brisketexan 104,831]

2 minutes ago, Chad Fuck said:

While being aware of what Putin wants to do, and how we believe a new administration might want to assist him in those endeavors, do we really think Russia is currently capable of handling a two front war where NATO (even sans US) is on the other side given the clusterfuck we're seeing in Ukraine by the worlds "second best" army?

And I'm asking this sincerely.  Can the Russian Army make a serious play for the Baltics?

Yes.  The Baltics simply don't have enough ground resistance to ward off even large meat assaults.

They would count on NATO air power to respond.  Which, when the US simply opts out of responding, the rest of NATO may well decline to play as well.  The rest of NATO's air power strategy depends on US participation (in-air refueling, arming the birds, etc.).

Putin has the green light to take any weak country that he can.  Poland is probably safe.  The Baltics are almost certainly screwed.  Glad I went and saw Estonia when I did.

Edited 3 hours ago by Brisketexan

[DDD Dad 14,292]

1 minute ago, Chad Fuck said:

While being aware of what Putin wants to do, and how we believe a new administration might want to assist him in those endeavors, do we really think Russia is currently capable of handling a two front war where NATO (even sans US) is on the other side given the clusterfuck we're seeing in Ukraine by the worlds "second best" army?

And I'm asking this sincerely.  Can the Russian Army make a serious play for the Baltics?

I wouldn't expect to see him try to extend into the Baltics with a hot war still going in Ukraine.  Unless he were to drag in more Nork troops or something.

 

[Brisketexan 104,831]

2 minutes ago, DDD Dad said:

I wouldn't expect to see him try to extend into the Baltics with a hot war still going in Ukraine.  Unless he were to drag in more Nork troops or something.

 

Active duty Estonian military size is under 8,000 troops.  Tallinn is less than 150 miles to the border.  Even if the Russians come in on buses and Ladas, they'll easily reach Tallinn within a day or two.

[Chad Fuck 17,610]

4 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Yes.  The Baltics simply don't have enough ground resistance to ward off even large meat assaults.

They would count on NATO air power to respond.  Which, when the US simply opts out of responding, the rest of NATO may well decline to play as well.  The rest of NATO's air power strategy depends on US participation (in-air refueling, arming the birds, etc.).

Putin has the green light to take any weak country that he can.  Poland is probably safe.  The Baltics are almost certainly screwed.  Glad I went and saw Estonia when I did.

While I believe this may be possible...

 

4 minutes ago, DDD Dad said:

I wouldn't expect to see him try to extend into the Baltics with a hot war still going in Ukraine.  Unless he were to drag in more Nork troops or something.

 

This is what I would expect.

Which means it's probably #1 not #2.  

Just now, Brisketexan said:

Active duty Estonian military size is under 8,000 troops.  Tallinn is less than 150 miles to the border.  Even if the Russians come in on buses and Ladas, they'll easily reach Tallinn within a day or two.

I doubt Germany/France/Poland would sit that out.  But like I've said, I've been wrong before.  

[bolverk 29,546]

7 minutes ago, DDD Dad said:

I wouldn't expect to see him try to extend into the Baltics with a hot war still going in Ukraine.  Unless he were to drag in more Nork troops or something.

 

https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3lb5wcx5jt22x

[Chad Fuck 17,610]

4 minutes ago, bolverk said:

https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3lb5wcx5jt22x

Oh. Well then.  That's different. 

[Parliament 14,177]

10 minutes ago, bolverk said:

https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3lb5wcx5jt22x

Their army is 1.3MM.  Bigger than I thought.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_People's_Army_Ground_Force

Edited 2 hours ago by Parliament

[Brisketexan 104,831]

3 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Their army is 1.3MM.  Bigger than I thought.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_People's_Army_Ground_Force

It is the dominant, controlling institution in North Korea.  Seriously, anything and everything comes second to the People's Army.  If the country has only enough food for 1.3 million people....then the army will eat, and everyone else will starve.  It is involved in all economic/commercial ventures (yeah, even those cross-border deals they had a while back were projects of the People's Army).  

[InkaUtexas 25,688]

It might be "large" but how large is the effective part? I mean look at Russia.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,455]

I don't want to see anyone die but if another result of the Ukraine war is NK having a 10% reduction of their military forces, so be it.

[Bevo 13,536]

9 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I don't want to see anyone die but if another result of the Ukraine war is NK having a 10% reduction of their military forces, so be it.

I wouldn't be too sure about that. Ukraine is already at a population disadvantage. Modern weapons and the ability to use them inside Russia will be needed to overcome the disadvantage. And as we all know, politics in the US and parts of Europe are not in Ukraine's favor.

[atomheartbevo 89,547]

2 hours ago, HouTex said:

I think that's right.  It was different for France in May/June 1940, but Churchill was very wise not to throw in the rest of the RAF when France was after him to do so when it was clear that France would fall within days.  I don't think Ukraine is where France was in the summer of 1940.  

Holy shit the avatar really checks out!

[atomheartbevo 89,547]

3 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

Problem is Russia gives zero fucks if there is a meltdown in Ukraine.

The rest of the world, or at least Europe does.  And any nuclear disasters will either drift into NATO territory or a Russian territory.  At the least, the flow of weapons will increase and China and India would get nervous if we start talking sanctions against all countries doing business with Russia.

[Parliament 14,177]

58 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

It might be "large" but how large is the effective part? I mean look at Russia.

More effective than even Russian conscripts.  NK soldiers grew up starving.  They're skinny and short; harder to hit when they're running at you unarmed.

[atomheartbevo 89,547]

2 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

Putin plans to invade the Baltics.

He will be given a green light to do so by the new administration.  After all, they are really just former soviet republics, Russia is just taking back what was theirs.  

Mark it down, it's pretty close to a lock at this point.

Russia is not even the best army in the Kursk oblast. 

If they had the forces to invade the Baltics, they would have already kicked the Ukrainians out of Kursk and they wouldn’t be spending months taking just a few kilometers here and there in Ukraine at the cost of tens of thousands of Russians.

They ain’t doing shit in the Balkans. Hell it would open the door to Kaliningrad being taken by Lithuania/Poland and probably something happening in Belarus ( they might not even be able to put down any rebellion against Lukashenko). 

They no longer have the kind of infrastructure to get troops and equipment in large numbers from their railheads to deep into enemy territory, and these are what they are using in Ukraine:

 

 

[InkaUtexas 25,688]

Just now, Parliament said:

More effective than even Russian conscripts.  NK soldiers grew up starving.  They're skinny and short; harder to hit when they're running at you unarmed.

And can dive through fire rings. So guess you need M-79's with canister rounds.

[bolverk 29,546]

8 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

The rest of the world, or at least Europe does.  And any nuclear disasters will either drift into NATO territory or a Russian territory.  At the least, the flow of weapons will increase and China and India would get nervous if we start talking sanctions against all countries doing business with Russia.

https://blog.nuclearsecrecy.com/2012/08/03/enough-fallout-for-everyone/

[InkaUtexas 25,688]

Just now, atomheartbevo said:

Russia is not even the best army in the Kursk oblast. 

If they had the forces to invade the Baltics, they would have already kicked the Ukrainians out of Kursk and they wouldn’t be spending months taking just a few kilometers here and there in Ukraine at the cost of tens of thousands of Russians.

They ain’t doing shit in the Balkans. Hell it would open the door to Kaliningrad being taken by Lithuania/Poland and probably something happening in Belarus ( they might not even be able to put down any rebellion against Lukashenko). 

They no longer have the kind of infrastructure to get troops and equipment in large numbers from their railheads to deep into enemy territory, and these are what they are using in Ukraine:

 

 

YURI, YURI, Doooooo

[Trey3216 15,326]

2 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

Putin plans to invade the Baltics.

He will be given a green light to do so by the new administration.  After all, they are really just former soviet republics, Russia is just taking back what was theirs.  

Mark it down, it's pretty close to a lock at this point.

Dude, I can't stand the guy but fuck off about the 'green light to invade the Baltics' histrionics.  Jesus man  

[InkaUtexas 25,688]

11 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Dude, I can't stand the guy but fuck off about the 'green light to invade the Baltics' histrionics.  Jesus man  

Brisket is not far fetched on this one. But it is actually a bit worse. A few times Putin has said he wants to rebuild the Russian Empire. Since he never said what is the high water mark, then lets think. What did Russia control at some time?

 The Russian empire includes a lot more land than current russia. Parts of Finland, Poland, etc. Add to that all the former USSR countries. The Stans, Georgia.

[Schulz2.0 28,899]

[bolverk 29,546]

A second cable was cut.

https://bsky.app/profile/tendar.bsky.social/post/3lbauzbmses2k

[atomheartbevo 89,547]

2 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Brisket is not far fetched on this one. But it is actually a bit worse. A few times Putin has said he wants to rebuild the Russian Empire. Since he never said what is the high water mark, then lets think. What did Russia control at some time?

 The Russian empire includes a lot more land than current russia. Parts of Finland, Poland, etc. Add to that all the former USSR countries. The Stans, Georgia.

If he had easily taken all of Georgia and. Moldova and was sitting in Kyiv and Odesa, we worry.

But I don’t think he could easily put down a rebellion against Lukashenko at this point if he’s having to haul in North Koreans to try and liberate parts of Mother Russia.  That’s fucking embarrassing and is not the second best army in the world.

Poland and probably Finland would stop Russia in the Baltics by themselves, and they have a huge incentive to step up, even if the U.S. were to tuck our tails between our legs and run away.  If he invaded the Baltics, Poland and Finland both know a timer has started and they won’t wait for him to consolidate any victories if NATO as a whole did nothing.

[InkaUtexas 25,688]

Can we superimpose any odd Russian ships in the area of the X about that time?

[InkaUtexas 25,688]

3 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

If he had easily taken all of Georgia and. Moldova and was sitting in Kyiv and Odesa, we worry.

But I don’t think he could easily put down a rebellion against Lukashenko at this point if he’s having to haul in North Koreans to try and liberate parts of Mother Russia.  That’s fucking embarrassing and is not the second best army in the world.

Poland and probably Finland would stop Russia in the Baltics by themselves, and they have a huge incentive to step up, even if the U.S. were to tuck our tails between our legs and run away.  If he invaded the Baltics, Poland and Finland both know a timer has started and they won’t wait for him to consolidate any victories if NATO as a whole did nothing.

He never went after the first two like he did Ukraine. Lukashenko? Putin is the first to overthrow him if need be. Kursk, yeah, that is embarrassing, but is it? Did it consolidate the people since Ukraine is NOW an invader? Don't underestimate the power of propaganda.

Putin could undermine an election and have the new "party" call for support, ya know, protect the russian speaking population. What has stopped him doing so in Moldovia is well, Ukraine.

If Poland and the Finns moved forward vs. just defending I think Putin goes tactical nuke. Only reason he has not in Ukraine is for a lot of Russians it is not seen as an outside group, but just misguided cousins.

[atomheartbevo 89,547]

6 minutes ago, bolverk said:

A second cable was cut.

https://bsky.app/profile/tendar.bsky.social/post/3lbauzbmses2k

This would be a good way to try to intimidate/scare NATO countries into not shipping arms to Ukraine.  Russia can feign ignoring and pretend an anchor snagged it, all the while two happening so closely together is a clear signal being sent by Russia.

But it’s also a good way to increase arms shipments from NATO countries.