Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[MillerEP 30905]

Another one:

https://www.threads.net/@jayinkyiv/post/DCheYqbOJwi?xmt=AQGzdiLkJOaW5ZU9EO4i2h3aVFvjJm5epQ0YZJIT9KPbjw

Russia is now severing the internet cables on which the US and Europe rely for global communications, two in one day.
Probably no coincidence that Musk has the "solution" via his starlink.
Naive western folks still has no idea what's coming.

 

https://www.threads.net/@jayinkyiv/post/DCgqFoTOGt0?xmt=AQGzdiLkJOaW5ZU9EO4i2h3aVFvjJm5epQ0YZJIT9KPbjw

Bodies in the streets of Odesa right now, after Russians just sent ballistic missiles with cluster munitions warheads into busy city center mid-day.
Countless dead and wounded.

[Brisketexan 106884]

Putin plans to invade the Baltics.

He will be given a green light to do so by the new administration.  After all, they are really just former soviet republics, Russia is just taking back what was theirs.  

Mark it down, it's pretty close to a lock at this point.

[Chad Fuck 18134]

11 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Putin plans to invade the Baltics.

He will be given a green light to do so by the new administration.  After all, they are really just former soviet republics, Russia is just taking back what was theirs.  

Mark it down, it's pretty close to a lock at this point.

While being aware of what Putin wants to do, and how we believe a new administration might want to assist him in those endeavors, do we really think Russia is currently capable of handling a two front war where NATO (even sans US) is on the other side given the clusterfuck we're seeing in Ukraine by the worlds "second best" army?

And I'm asking this sincerely.  Can the Russian Army make a serious play for the Baltics?

[DDD Dad 14647]

15 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

Another one:

https://www.threads.net/@jayinkyiv/post/DCheYqbOJwi?xmt=AQGzdiLkJOaW5ZU9EO4i2h3aVFvjJm5epQ0YZJIT9KPbjw

Russia is now severing the internet cables on which the US and Europe rely for global communications, two in one day.
Probably no coincidence that Musk has the "solution" via his starlink.
Naive western folks still has no idea what's coming.

[Brisketexan 106884]

2 minutes ago, Chad Fuck said:

While being aware of what Putin wants to do, and how we believe a new administration might want to assist him in those endeavors, do we really think Russia is currently capable of handling a two front war where NATO (even sans US) is on the other side given the clusterfuck we're seeing in Ukraine by the worlds "second best" army?

And I'm asking this sincerely.  Can the Russian Army make a serious play for the Baltics?

Yes.  The Baltics simply don't have enough ground resistance to ward off even large meat assaults.

They would count on NATO air power to respond.  Which, when the US simply opts out of responding, the rest of NATO may well decline to play as well.  The rest of NATO's air power strategy depends on US participation (in-air refueling, arming the birds, etc.).

Putin has the green light to take any weak country that he can.  Poland is probably safe.  The Baltics are almost certainly screwed.  Glad I went and saw Estonia when I did.

Edited November 18 by Brisketexan

[DDD Dad 14647]

1 minute ago, Chad Fuck said:

While being aware of what Putin wants to do, and how we believe a new administration might want to assist him in those endeavors, do we really think Russia is currently capable of handling a two front war where NATO (even sans US) is on the other side given the clusterfuck we're seeing in Ukraine by the worlds "second best" army?

And I'm asking this sincerely.  Can the Russian Army make a serious play for the Baltics?

I wouldn't expect to see him try to extend into the Baltics with a hot war still going in Ukraine.  Unless he were to drag in more Nork troops or something.

 

[Brisketexan 106884]

2 minutes ago, DDD Dad said:

I wouldn't expect to see him try to extend into the Baltics with a hot war still going in Ukraine.  Unless he were to drag in more Nork troops or something.

 

Active duty Estonian military size is under 8,000 troops.  Tallinn is less than 150 miles to the border.  Even if the Russians come in on buses and Ladas, they'll easily reach Tallinn within a day or two.

[Chad Fuck 18134]

4 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Yes.  The Baltics simply don't have enough ground resistance to ward off even large meat assaults.

They would count on NATO air power to respond.  Which, when the US simply opts out of responding, the rest of NATO may well decline to play as well.  The rest of NATO's air power strategy depends on US participation (in-air refueling, arming the birds, etc.).

Putin has the green light to take any weak country that he can.  Poland is probably safe.  The Baltics are almost certainly screwed.  Glad I went and saw Estonia when I did.

While I believe this may be possible...

 

4 minutes ago, DDD Dad said:

I wouldn't expect to see him try to extend into the Baltics with a hot war still going in Ukraine.  Unless he were to drag in more Nork troops or something.

 

This is what I would expect.

Which means it's probably #1 not #2.  

Just now, Brisketexan said:

Active duty Estonian military size is under 8,000 troops.  Tallinn is less than 150 miles to the border.  Even if the Russians come in on buses and Ladas, they'll easily reach Tallinn within a day or two.

I doubt Germany/France/Poland would sit that out.  But like I've said, I've been wrong before.  

[bolverk 30322]

7 minutes ago, DDD Dad said:

I wouldn't expect to see him try to extend into the Baltics with a hot war still going in Ukraine.  Unless he were to drag in more Nork troops or something.

 

https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3lb5wcx5jt22x

[Chad Fuck 18134]

4 minutes ago, bolverk said:

https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3lb5wcx5jt22x

Oh. Well then.  That's different. 

[Parliament 14593]

10 minutes ago, bolverk said:

https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3lb5wcx5jt22x

Their army is 1.3MM.  Bigger than I thought.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_People's_Army_Ground_Force

Edited November 18 by Parliament

[Brisketexan 106884]

3 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Their army is 1.3MM.  Bigger than I thought.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_People's_Army_Ground_Force

It is the dominant, controlling institution in North Korea.  Seriously, anything and everything comes second to the People's Army.  If the country has only enough food for 1.3 million people....then the army will eat, and everyone else will starve.  It is involved in all economic/commercial ventures (yeah, even those cross-border deals they had a while back were projects of the People's Army).  

[InkaUtexas 26863]

It might be "large" but how large is the effective part? I mean look at Russia.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13729]

I don't want to see anyone die but if another result of the Ukraine war is NK having a 10% reduction of their military forces, so be it.

[Bevo 13870]

9 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I don't want to see anyone die but if another result of the Ukraine war is NK having a 10% reduction of their military forces, so be it.

I wouldn't be too sure about that. Ukraine is already at a population disadvantage. Modern weapons and the ability to use them inside Russia will be needed to overcome the disadvantage. And as we all know, politics in the US and parts of Europe are not in Ukraine's favor.

[atomheartbevo 90641]

2 hours ago, HouTex said:

I think that's right.  It was different for France in May/June 1940, but Churchill was very wise not to throw in the rest of the RAF when France was after him to do so when it was clear that France would fall within days.  I don't think Ukraine is where France was in the summer of 1940.  

Holy shit the avatar really checks out!

[atomheartbevo 90641]

3 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

Problem is Russia gives zero fucks if there is a meltdown in Ukraine.

The rest of the world, or at least Europe does.  And any nuclear disasters will either drift into NATO territory or a Russian territory.  At the least, the flow of weapons will increase and China and India would get nervous if we start talking sanctions against all countries doing business with Russia.

[Parliament 14593]

58 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

It might be "large" but how large is the effective part? I mean look at Russia.

More effective than even Russian conscripts.  NK soldiers grew up starving.  They're skinny and short; harder to hit when they're running at you unarmed.

[atomheartbevo 90641]

2 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

Putin plans to invade the Baltics.

He will be given a green light to do so by the new administration.  After all, they are really just former soviet republics, Russia is just taking back what was theirs.  

Mark it down, it's pretty close to a lock at this point.

Russia is not even the best army in the Kursk oblast. 

If they had the forces to invade the Baltics, they would have already kicked the Ukrainians out of Kursk and they wouldn’t be spending months taking just a few kilometers here and there in Ukraine at the cost of tens of thousands of Russians.

They ain’t doing shit in the Balkans. Hell it would open the door to Kaliningrad being taken by Lithuania/Poland and probably something happening in Belarus ( they might not even be able to put down any rebellion against Lukashenko). 

They no longer have the kind of infrastructure to get troops and equipment in large numbers from their railheads to deep into enemy territory, and these are what they are using in Ukraine:

 

 

[InkaUtexas 26863]

Just now, Parliament said:

More effective than even Russian conscripts.  NK soldiers grew up starving.  They're skinny and short; harder to hit when they're running at you unarmed.

And can dive through fire rings. So guess you need M-79's with canister rounds.

[bolverk 30322]

8 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

The rest of the world, or at least Europe does.  And any nuclear disasters will either drift into NATO territory or a Russian territory.  At the least, the flow of weapons will increase and China and India would get nervous if we start talking sanctions against all countries doing business with Russia.

https://blog.nuclearsecrecy.com/2012/08/03/enough-fallout-for-everyone/

[InkaUtexas 26863]

Just now, atomheartbevo said:

Russia is not even the best army in the Kursk oblast. 

If they had the forces to invade the Baltics, they would have already kicked the Ukrainians out of Kursk and they wouldn’t be spending months taking just a few kilometers here and there in Ukraine at the cost of tens of thousands of Russians.

They ain’t doing shit in the Balkans. Hell it would open the door to Kaliningrad being taken by Lithuania/Poland and probably something happening in Belarus ( they might not even be able to put down any rebellion against Lukashenko). 

They no longer have the kind of infrastructure to get troops and equipment in large numbers from their railheads to deep into enemy territory, and these are what they are using in Ukraine:

 

 

YURI, YURI, Doooooo

[Trey3216 15452]

2 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

Putin plans to invade the Baltics.

He will be given a green light to do so by the new administration.  After all, they are really just former soviet republics, Russia is just taking back what was theirs.  

Mark it down, it's pretty close to a lock at this point.

Dude, I can't stand the guy but fuck off about the 'green light to invade the Baltics' histrionics.  Jesus man  

[InkaUtexas 26863]

11 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Dude, I can't stand the guy but fuck off about the 'green light to invade the Baltics' histrionics.  Jesus man  

Brisket is not far fetched on this one. But it is actually a bit worse. A few times Putin has said he wants to rebuild the Russian Empire. Since he never said what is the high water mark, then lets think. What did Russia control at some time?

 The Russian empire includes a lot more land than current russia. Parts of Finland, Poland, etc. Add to that all the former USSR countries. The Stans, Georgia.

[Schulz2.0 29280]

[bolverk 30322]

A second cable was cut.

https://bsky.app/profile/tendar.bsky.social/post/3lbauzbmses2k

[atomheartbevo 90641]

2 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Brisket is not far fetched on this one. But it is actually a bit worse. A few times Putin has said he wants to rebuild the Russian Empire. Since he never said what is the high water mark, then lets think. What did Russia control at some time?

 The Russian empire includes a lot more land than current russia. Parts of Finland, Poland, etc. Add to that all the former USSR countries. The Stans, Georgia.

If he had easily taken all of Georgia and. Moldova and was sitting in Kyiv and Odesa, we worry.

But I don’t think he could easily put down a rebellion against Lukashenko at this point if he’s having to haul in North Koreans to try and liberate parts of Mother Russia.  That’s fucking embarrassing and is not the second best army in the world.

Poland and probably Finland would stop Russia in the Baltics by themselves, and they have a huge incentive to step up, even if the U.S. were to tuck our tails between our legs and run away.  If he invaded the Baltics, Poland and Finland both know a timer has started and they won’t wait for him to consolidate any victories if NATO as a whole did nothing.

[InkaUtexas 26863]

Can we superimpose any odd Russian ships in the area of the X about that time?

[InkaUtexas 26863]

3 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

If he had easily taken all of Georgia and. Moldova and was sitting in Kyiv and Odesa, we worry.

But I don’t think he could easily put down a rebellion against Lukashenko at this point if he’s having to haul in North Koreans to try and liberate parts of Mother Russia.  That’s fucking embarrassing and is not the second best army in the world.

Poland and probably Finland would stop Russia in the Baltics by themselves, and they have a huge incentive to step up, even if the U.S. were to tuck our tails between our legs and run away.  If he invaded the Baltics, Poland and Finland both know a timer has started and they won’t wait for him to consolidate any victories if NATO as a whole did nothing.

He never went after the first two like he did Ukraine. Lukashenko? Putin is the first to overthrow him if need be. Kursk, yeah, that is embarrassing, but is it? Did it consolidate the people since Ukraine is NOW an invader? Don't underestimate the power of propaganda.

Putin could undermine an election and have the new "party" call for support, ya know, protect the russian speaking population. What has stopped him doing so in Moldovia is well, Ukraine.

If Poland and the Finns moved forward vs. just defending I think Putin goes tactical nuke. Only reason he has not in Ukraine is for a lot of Russians it is not seen as an outside group, but just misguided cousins.

[atomheartbevo 90641]

22 minutes ago, bolverk said:

A second cable was cut.

https://bsky.app/profile/tendar.bsky.social/post/3lbauzbmses2k

This would be a good way to try to intimidate/scare NATO countries into not shipping arms to Ukraine.  Russia can feign ignorance and pretend an anchor snagged it, all the while two happening so closely together is a clear signal being sent by Russia.

But it’s also a good way to increase arms shipments from NATO countries.

Edited November 18 by atomheartbevo

[atomheartbevo 90641]

2 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

He never went after the first two like he did Ukraine. Lukashenko? Putin is the first to overthrow him if need be. Kursk, yeah, that is embarrassing, but is it? Did it consolidate the people since Ukraine is NOW an invader? Don't underestimate the power of propaganda.

Putin could undermine an election and have the new "party" call for support, ya know, protect the russian speaking population. What has stopped him doing so in Moldovia is well, Ukraine.

If Poland and the Finns moved forward vs. just defending I think Putin goes tactical nuke. Only reason he has not in Ukraine is for a lot of Russians it is not seen as an outside group, but just misguided cousins.

He just doesn’t have the manpower, even with the Norks.  Otherwise we would have seen it in Ukraine already.  As of now, he might have to actually start putting more resources he really doesn’t have into Crimea, if Ukraine drops the bridge.

And Poland and the Finns wouldn’t be foolish enough to invade Russia.  They’ll hurt Russia bad enough just ejecting them out of the Baltics and can taunt them mercilessly and fart in their general direction.  Kaliningrad is the one sticking point, but they don’t have to invade - they have the means to hit any Russian forces in there that are attacking NATO countries (although it sounds like there’s few there these days) as well as blockading it.

[InkaUtexas 26863]

1 minute ago, atomheartbevo said:

He just doesn’t have the manpower, even with the Norks.  Otherwise we would have seen it in Ukraine already.  As of now, he might have to actually start putting more resources he really doesn’t have into Crimea, if Ukraine drops the bridge.

And Poland and the Finns wouldn’t be foolish enough to invade Russia.  They’ll hurt Russia bad enough just ejecting them out of the Baltics and can taunt them mercilessly and fart in their general direction.  Kaliningrad is the one sticking point, but they don’t have to invade - they have the means to hit any Russian forces in there that are attacking NATO countries (although it sounds like there’s few there these days) as well as blockading it.

I don't think he expected the Ukrainians to fight back so hard. Or kick the crap out of his northern run towards Kyiv.

for the rest, well that is why I said Tactical Nukes.

[bolverk 30322]

1 minute ago, atomheartbevo said:

He just doesn’t have the manpower, even with the Norks.  Otherwise we would have seen it in Ukraine already.  As of now, he might have to actually start putting more resources he really doesn’t have into Crimea, if Ukraine drops the bridge.

And Poland and the Finns wouldn’t be foolish enough to invade Russia.  They’ll hurt Russia bad enough just ejecting them out of the Baltics and can taunt them mercilessly and fart in their general direction.  Kaliningrad is the one sticking point, but they don’t have to invade - they have the means to hit any Russian forces in there that are attacking NATO countries (although it sounds like there’s few there these days) as well as blockading it.

Don't forget Sweden. I seem to recall some reporting that they're going to provide air defense over the Baltics.

[atomheartbevo 90641]

Just now, InkaUtexas said:

I don't think he expected the Ukrainians to fight back so hard. Or kick the crap out of his northern run towards Kyiv.

for the rest, well that is why I said Tactical Nukes.

If he was going to use tactical nukes, he would have done it long ago, Bur red line after red line kept getting crossed.

Hell, the invasion of Kursk should have been the ultimate trigger.

I bet he doesn’t trust them to even work at this point.

[InkaUtexas 26863]

4 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

If he was going to use tactical nukes, he would have done it long ago, Bur red line after red line kept getting crossed.

Hell, the invasion of Kursk should have been the ultimate trigger.

I bet he doesn’t trust them to even work at this point.

Maybe. all I am saying is the threat is there. How many thought he would never invade Ukraine?

[Incredulity 11875]

5 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

If he was going to use tactical nukes, he would have done it long ago, Bur red line after red line kept getting crossed.

Hell, the invasion of Kursk should have been the ultimate trigger.

I bet he doesn’t trust them to even work at this point.

I’m with this.

full disclaimer:  I know about zero in regards to Russian military strength other than their failures in this invasion.

[InkaUtexas 26863]

3 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

I’m with this.

full disclaimer:  I know about zero in regards to Russian military strength other than their failures in this invasion.

Meaning you did not attend the 1 hour seminar on Russian Military Strength at the Red Roof Inn free for all Surly members?

[Incredulity 11875]

7 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Meaning you did not attend the 1 hour seminar on Russian Military Strength at the Red Roof Inn free for all Surly members?

I opted for Brisket’s 3 hr symposium on everything is fucked.

mistakes were made.

[InkaUtexas 26863]

25 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

I opted for Brisket’s 3 hr symposium on everything is fucked.

mistakes were made.

Yeah, but did he at least provide his best advice for securing a threesome with Susanna Hoffs? And did it include the blueprints to the time machine so she is back in mid 1980's form?

[KYHorn 17614]

7 hours ago, Bevo said:

 

I have a hard time believing this comes from Biden. It seems to me that Blinken makes these decisions.

It's fairly well known that Jake Sullivan has been the consistent drag on allowing Ukraine to actually win this.

[956 Worldwide 35592]

25 minutes ago, KYHorn said:

It's fairly well known that Jake Sullivan has been the consistent drag on allowing Ukraine to actually win this.

Here is the new narrative.  Jake gave the Ukrainians all they needed and nothing we could do would make a difference.  It’s Ukraine’s fault for not feeding their future to the meat grinder like Russia.
 

He makes me fucking sick. This piece of shit milquetoast lawyer says this shit after last night’s barrage on cities. 

[Brisketexan 106884]

I opted for Brisket’s 3 hr symposium on everything is fucked.
mistakes were made.

Knew I shouldn’t have cut it from the original 8-hour run time. Had to take out the whole segment on how fucked Paraguay is.

[B00M 6732]

1 hour ago, bolverk said:

A second cable was cut.

https://bsky.app/profile/tendar.bsky.social/post/3lbauzbmses2k

If Russia is going to drag anchors to cut cables, there is a solution to this problem. Take the ships, keep any cargo. Sink them if you have to. China is not going to have their backs. 

Edited November 19 by B00M
What the fuck is their weak ass navy going to do about it

[Incredulity 11875]

4 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Knew I shouldn’t have cut it from the original 8-hour run time. Had to take out the whole segment on how fucked Paraguay is.

Thing is it felt like at least 10 hrs….

 

a great value on words…

 

words….

 

my god, so many words.

[InkaUtexas 26863]

6 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Knew I shouldn’t have cut it from the original 8-hour run time. Had to take out the whole segment on how fucked Paraguay is.

WTF is wrong with Paraguay? Hot women, good tea, good food? I mean forget that they had some asshole dictators. It is not like they had an asshole soccer player who bit people.

[Harrison Stafford 3392]

4 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

Thing is it felt like at least 10 hrs….

 

a great value on words…

 

words….

 

my god, so many words.

There’s no strict limit on how many times you can use the word “nefarious”. 

[SL Xpress 7608]

44 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Here is the new narrative.  Jake gave the Ukrainians all they needed and nothing we could do would make a difference.  It’s Ukraine’s fault for not feeding their future to the meat grinder like Russia.
 

He makes me fucking sick. This piece of shit milquetoast lawyer says this shit after last night’s barrage on cities. 

 

While I agree, he wasn't a lone wolf. Plenty of shades of Robert McNamara in that one, IMO. 

I hate the way the US has handled Ukraine the whole way through, for the most part. A lot of empty promises and inferences of support. A lot of half assedness to prevent escalation. But always my biggest thought is however maddening the approach has been, the alternative would have been worse. And now the alternative is here. 

I feel like there was a golden opportunity to throw off a terrible yoke on Ukrainian society/culture that's loomed over them for hundreds of years, and now it feels like the window is closing. For me it's like watching Sauron win. 

[Brisketexan 106884]

WTF is wrong with Paraguay? Hot women, good tea, good food? I mean forget that they had some asshole dictators. It is not like they had an asshole soccer player who bit people.

True story: many years ago, had lunch in Paraguay at a place that gave off MAJOR Nazi vibes (the Hotel Tyrol). Turns out, Mengele barely escaped the Nazi hunters there once, jumped off a balcony seconds ahead of em.
Pretty country, though. Great mate.

[BurntEyes 6302]

1 hour ago, InkaUtexas said:

Yeah, but did he at least provide his best advice for securing a threesome with Susanna Hoffs? And did it include the blueprints to the time machine so she is back in mid 1980's form?

Hey man, you neglected to mention the fact that Organic South American Solient Green was the main dish of the buffet included in the Brisketexan ATAF Hide Yo Kids symposium.

[InkaUtexas 26863]

26 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

True story: many years ago, had lunch in Paraguay at a place that gave off MAJOR Nazi vibes (the Hotel Tyrol). Turns out, Mengele barely escaped the Nazi hunters there once, jumped off a balcony seconds ahead of em.
Pretty country, though. Great mate.

Bolivia has great beer. I wonder why.