Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[Captainant 27464]

1 minute ago, Shady Ray said:

German Greens gonna have a conniption over this, but this is the way...

Nuclear IS green, it's surprising to me that the dogmatically pragmatic Germans continue to refuse to consider it. Why is that the case? Spectre of Chernobyl and all that?

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

25 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Nuclear IS green, it's surprising to me that the dogmatically pragmatic Germans continue to refuse to consider it. Why is that the case? Spectre of Chernobyl and all that?

Good question. The Germans, and the French are diametrically opposed on the use of nuclear energy.  The Germans are seemingly scared to fucking death it'll kill em all.  They do make for ripe, terror inducing, military targets however.

[956 Worldwide 34444]

27 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Nuclear IS green, it's surprising to me that the dogmatically pragmatic Germans continue to refuse to consider it. Why is that the case? Spectre of Chernobyl and all that?

Germany is a complete nonentity in nuclear engineering. Germany and Austria ARE leaders in emerging and other green technologies. 
 

If you are looking for rationale on any German foreign policy position, look first to German industry interests.  

[956 Worldwide 34444]

Just to expand, the Green argument is that new nukes will take a long time to build and in the interim emissions don’t drop, and they are afraid that some countries will fiddle-fart around on the tenders and decisions and use that to stall transition, and remain concerned over radioactive waste.

From the Greens that’s credible.  But the solid, German defensive wall on this one across parties is completely due to economic interests.  The French want nukes, because EDF wants to build them.  The Germans want the whole EU to use German renewable tech and suppliers. 
 

 

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

36 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Just to expand, the Green argument is that new nukes will take a long time to build and in the interim emissions don’t drop, and they are afraid that some countries will fiddle-fart around on the tenders and decisions and use that to stall transition, and remain concerned over radioactive waste.

From the Greens that’s credible.  But the solid, German defensive wall on this one across parties is completely due to economic interests.  The French want nukes, because EDF wants to build them.  The Germans want the whole EU to use German renewable tech and suppliers. 
 

 

I call BS on that argument a bitX. They’ve been bashing nukes a long time, and that hasn’t been an argument regarding not using it.

[Shady Ray 1633]

Basically, the Green Party of Germany came out of the 1970s anti nuke movement, which essentially just adopted all forms of nuclear as evil. Their entire identity as a political movement is based on this perspective and they - being typical obstinate Germans - refuse to recalibrate. It is completely part of German culture now, no matter how intrinsically stupid it is. There has been organized resistance to nuclear since the 1950s, but Chernobyl and then Fukushima cemented it within the national discourse. Over the years, the position spread to the Social Dems, and then, due to some quirks of German politics, was even adopted in some corners of the Center Right CDU with Merkel's kneejerk reaction to Fukushima. It is a stupid position, but it is deeply enshrined now in the national psyche.

 

One of the weirder quirks of Germans, along with scat porn and an undying affinity towards the Hoff/Knight Rider/Baywatch, is bringing up Chernobyl to a German...every one of them who was around then will instinctively tell you where they were when it happened, as the weather pattern blew fallout over East Germany and Bavaria, and then it rained. They act like it was literal acid falling from the sky from which they had to flee, and it is part of their personal/familial lore.  Like some type of bizarre 9/11 experience that was hundreds of miles away. Fucking weird.

 

Anyway, here is the summary of electricity origin from Stadtwerke München (City Utilities - Munich) that came with my annual power bill yesterday. SWM is essentially the only provider here. You can disregard the middle rows, as those are simply packages for business users/voluntary programs focused on renewables/gas. The top row shows how Munich was powered, the bottom shows how Germany as a whole was powered. Gas supply goes out, ol' Shady gonna be all kinds of fucked.

 

Green = Renewables not financed from the state eco surcharge
Yellow = Renewables financed from the state eco surcharge
Blue = Natural Gas
Light Grey = Coal
Dark Grey = Nuke

 

 

[Immaculate Vibes 114]

So at this point nothing is happening for a few weeks right? No way Putin does anything during Xi’s Olympics. 

[Ghost of LL 15492]

1 hour ago, Immaculate Vibes said:

So at this point nothing is happening for a few weeks right? No way Putin does anything during Xi’s Olympics. 

Fuck that--he invaded Georgia in the big fat middle of China's last olympics and invaded Crimea and the Donbas in the middle of his own olympics.

[Brisketexan 104628]

2 hours ago, Shady Ray said:

Basically, the Green Party of Germany came out of the 1970s anti nuke movement, which essentially just adopted all forms of nuclear as evil. Their entire identity as a political movement is based on this perspective and they - being typical obstinate Germans - refuse to recalibrate. It is completely part of German culture now, no matter how intrinsically stupid it is. There has been organized resistance to nuclear since the 1950s, but Chernobyl and then Fukushima cemented it within the national discourse. Over the years, the position spread to the Social Dems, and then, due to some quirks of German politics, was even adopted in some corners of the Center Right CDU with Merkel's kneejerk reaction to Fukushima. It is a stupid position, but it is deeply enshrined now in the national psyche.

 

One of the weirder quirks of Germans, along with scat porn and an undying affinity towards the Hoff/Knight Rider/Baywatch, is bringing up Chernobyl to a German...every one of them who was around then will instinctively tell you where they were when it happened, as the weather pattern blew fallout over East Germany and Bavaria, and then it rained. They act like it was literal acid falling from the sky from which they had to flee, and it is part of their personal/familial lore.  Like some type of bizarre 9/11 experience that was hundreds of miles away. Fucking weird.

 

Anyway, here is the summary of electricity origin from Stadtwerke München (City Utilities - Munich) that came with my annual power bill yesterday. SWM is essentially the only provider here. You can disregard the middle rows, as those are simply packages for business users/voluntary programs focused on renewables/gas. The top row shows how Munich was powered, the bottom shows how Germany as a whole was powered. Gas supply goes out, ol' Shady gonna be all kinds of fucked.

 

Green = Renewables not financed from the state eco surcharge
Yellow = Renewables financed from the state eco surcharge
Blue = Natural Gas
Light Grey = Coal
Dark Grey = Nuke

 

 

1 -- the "anti-nukes because of all the reasons to fear them" is real.  When we were visiting with friends on our last trip, they talked proudly about how they had obtained the commitment to shut down the nearby nuke plant.  And that was important to them because it was dangerous because of "the risk of earthquakes."  Which, of course, is NOT a material risk in that area, and there is no real risk of a Fukushima part 2 there....but the anti-nuke position is so ingrained in them, it was interesting to listen to.

2 -- man, the energy efficiency there is amazing.  Our friend's home is somewhat smaller than ours, but it's not tiny.  That said, we traded numbers on annual power consumption, and they are around 40% of what we consume.  And our house is NOT inefficient.  Their homes are just so much more so than ours (as anyone who has ever had to use a european clothes dryer will tell you -- they are super efficient.....because they don't actually dry your clothes).

3 -- on the non-energy front, the boy is in Strasbourg today (with a girl, I didn't even know this trip was happening, but there you go and good for him).  Apparently, the first Wednesday of each month is when they test the air raid siren.  So, he's out walking the city, and there's an air raid warning.  He said that for a good second and a half, his eyes got big and he thought "holy fucking shit the fucking Russians!"  Then he realized nobody else was skipping a beat, and it was just a test.  But I thought it interesting that his mind immediately went to the current tensions.  And yeah, he already knows to head to the U-bahn station directly across the street from his residence if shit gets real in Berlin, which none of us of course expect.....but it's at least a conversation he's had.

[Immaculate Vibes 114]

4 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

Fuck that--he invaded Georgia in the big fat middle of China's last olympics and invaded Crimea and the Donbas in the middle of his own olympics.

Shit you’re right there was overlap. My bad. 

[956 Worldwide 34444]

So, we get the answer on which countries get more NATO troops: Romania and Poland.  Most Americans will be in Poland and from the 82nd Airborne.  Romania also will host some French.  Not a surprise as Romanian is front-line, Black Sea and a frequent target of the Kremlin. They also have a special relationship with Moldova which has its own issues with Kremlin-sponsored separatists and Russian troops.

Seems like Putin got the answer on NATO withdrawing from Eastern Europe. 

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/02/02/world/ukraine-russia-news

[Ghost of LL 15492]

6 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

1 -- the "anti-nukes because of all the reasons to fear them" is real.  When we were visiting with friends on our last trip, they talked proudly about how they had obtained the commitment to shut down the nearby nuke plant.  And that was important to them because it was dangerous because of "the risk of earthquakes."  Which, of course, is NOT a material risk in that area, and there is no real risk of a Fukushima part 2 there....but the anti-nuke position is so ingrained in them, it was interesting to listen to.

2 -- man, the energy efficiency there is amazing.  Our friend's home is somewhat smaller than ours, but it's not tiny.  That said, we traded numbers on annual power consumption, and they are around 40% of what we consume.  And our house is NOT inefficient.  Their homes are just so much more so than ours (as anyone who has ever had to use a european clothes dryer will tell you -- they are super efficient.....because they don't actually dry your clothes).

3 -- on the non-energy front, the boy is in Strasbourg today (with a girl, I didn't even know this trip was happening, but there you go and good for him).  Apparently, the first Wednesday of each month is when they test the air raid siren.  So, he's out walking the city, and there's an air raid warning.  He said that for a good second and a half, his eyes got big and he thought "holy fucking shit the fucking Russians!"  Then he realized nobody else was skipping a beat, and it was just a test.  But I thought it interesting that his mind immediately went to the current tensions.  And yeah, he already knows to head to the U-bahn station directly across the street from his residence if shit gets real in Berlin, which none of us of course expect.....but it's at least a conversation he's had.

1) I remember when I was an exchange student in Germany, and we went on a field trip to the local nuclear plant.  I thought "this is pretty fucking cool--what a great piece of engineering."  

That was . . . not their take.  There was a lot of talk about the security and how they prevented a truck bomb or other such (mind you--this was years before Oklahoma City), but with the acknowledgement that the Russians would totally target the facility in the event of war, spreading radiation over half of Bavaria.  And this was a totally different type of reactor than Chernobyl, but the teacher was keen to let you know that all nuclear reactors all fundamentally the same.  It was like taking a bunch of acrophobics to the top of the Eiffel Tower.

Fun aside--I also remember that the American fighters from the local air base often flew right over the gymnasium's soccer fields.  The students bitterly let me know that the fighters used the red cross on top of the hospital to execute their turns.  I thought that was cool--the folks in the hospital got a free air show.  That take was rather unpopular.

2) Yeah. The clothes dryers don't work.  And the refrigerators and dishwashers are tiny, meaning that Germans go to the supermarket more frequently and use a lot more water to hand wash dishes.  That's great for your electricity bill, but it costs a lot more gas and water.

But damn--I really wish I had those cool hard blinds that come down and cover the entire window.

3) In my next life, I want to come back as your son.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13414]

I'm fairly certain that official Russian forces did not enter Crimea until AFTER the Sochi Olympics wrapped up in Feb 2014. Absolutely I agree that unofficial forces were causing problems in Crimea during the Olympics but Russia didn't move until after the Olympics.

As for the Winter Olympics now, I don't see Putin starting anything until afterwards. Putin is meeting with Xi this week. First face-to-face meeting that Xi has had with any leader since pre-COVID. Xi will not want anything to disrupt the flow and attention of his Olympics and I'm sure Putin is assuring Xi of that.

Putin can obviously do what he wants, but not waiting until Feb 21st will piss off China and Xi. Putin will have enough on his hands dealing with the West and why have your largest neighbor angry with you.

 

[InkaUtexas 25520]

5 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I'm fairly certain that official Russian forces did not enter Crimea until AFTER the Sochi Olympics wrapped up in Feb 2014. Absolutely I agree that unofficial forces were causing problems in Crimea during the Olympics but Russia didn't move until after the Olympics.

As for the Winter Olympics now, I don't see Putin starting anything until afterwards. Putin is meeting with Xi this week. First face-to-face meeting that Xi has had with any leader since pre-COVID. Xi will not want anything to disrupt the flow and attention of his Olympics and I'm sure Putin is assuring Xi of that.

Putin can obviously do what he wants, but not waiting until Feb 21st will piss off China and Xi. Putin will have enough on his hands dealing with the West and why have your largest neighbor angry with you.

 

I agree, but just for shits and giggles. What if the deal is cemented allowing Russia to go in, NATO runs that way and China gobbles up Taiwan? Could the US handle a two front crisis? Where do we engage? 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13414]

9 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

I agree, but just for shits and giggles. What if the deal is cemented allowing Russia to go in, NATO runs that way and China gobbles up Taiwan? Could the US handle a two front crisis? Where do we engage? 

Is there any real noise about China taking over Taiwan? I've always had the impression that Taiwan is fairly strong defensively. I assume China could overwhelm them but they would get a black eye in the process. 

[TexasEd 8064]

2 hours ago, Ghost of LL said:

Fuck that--he invaded Georgia in the big fat middle of China's last olympics and invaded Crimea and the Donbas in the middle of his own olympics.

So he might be statistically more likely to invade during the Olympics.

[Parliament 14138]

1 hour ago, InkaUtexas said:

I agree, but just for shits and giggles. What if the deal is cemented allowing Russia to go in, NATO runs that way and China gobbles up Taiwan? Could the US handle a two front crisis? Where do we engage? 

I believe our military doctrine includes being able to fight 2 regional conflicts at the same time.  In Taiwan, we'd have local allies as well.

[Homercles 10205]

36 minutes ago, Parliament said:

I believe our military doctrine includes being able to fight 2 regional conflicts at the same time.  In Taiwan, we'd have local allies as well.

Yeah and one hell of a logistics train to get there.  

[NeverMarryAStripper 21781]

I'm not sure that fighting the Rooskies and the Chicoms at the same time is really what they had in mind when they were talking about the capability of fighting two regional conflicts at once.

[atomheartbevo 89449]

2 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Putin can obviously do what he wants, but not waiting until Feb 21st will piss off China and Xi. Putin will have enough on his hands dealing with the West and why have your largest neighbor angry with you.

If he waits too long, things will turn to shit, err mud, which is really bad for the troops and their vehicles.  Three weeks is a heckuva long time.

[atomheartbevo 89449]

2 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

I agree, but just for shits and giggles. What if the deal is cemented allowing Russia to go in, NATO runs that way and China gobbles up Taiwan? Could the US handle a two front crisis? Where do we engage? 

2 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Is there any real noise about China taking over Taiwan? I've always had the impression that Taiwan is fairly strong defensively. I assume China could overwhelm them but they would get a black eye in the process. 

I don't know if we would do anything militarily, but China is a lot easier to deal with - they have to cross 100 miles of water.  They can't easily fly everything they need in and take over a nation of 23 million - this isn't D-Day, 1944 where they had 3,000+ cargo aircraft and gliders.  Taiwan has plenty of air defenses as well.

Getting their heavy equipment and large groups of troops into Taiwan means on slow ocean-going ships, which makes for really easy targets to put on the bottom of the strait.

And that's before we get into the economic losses if the US puts on a full-scale embargo/etc. and American (and other nations) companies take their business elsewhere.  China would have to make that food up somewhere else, and they'd have to figure out how to make up the economic losses/keep their people fed and employed. 

[Ghost of LL 15492]

4 hours ago, Parliament said:

I believe our military doctrine includes being able to fight 2 regional conflicts at the same time.  In Taiwan, we'd have local allies as well.

Those aren't regional conflicts, brother.

[Rip76 4914]

Pentagon to deploy 3,000 troops to Europe as tensions spike with Russia over Ukraine
 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2022/02/02/russia-ukraine-conflict-pentagon-deploy-3-000-troops-europe/9313094002/

 

[InkaUtexas 25520]

4 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

I don't know if we would do anything militarily, but China is a lot easier to deal with - they have to cross 100 miles of water.  They can't easily fly everything they need in and take over a nation of 23 million - this isn't D-Day, 1944 where they had 3,000+ cargo aircraft and gliders.  Taiwan has plenty of air defenses as well.

Getting their heavy equipment and large groups of troops into Taiwan means on slow ocean-going ships, which makes for really easy targets to put on the bottom of the strait.

And that's before we get into the economic losses if the US puts on a full-scale embargo/etc. and American (and other nations) companies take their business elsewhere.  China would have to make that food up somewhere else, and they'd have to figure out how to make up the economic losses/keep their people fed and employed. 

They sit back and pound them with missiles. Form a flotilla of junks and give zero fucks about the Chinese ground troops. Would be hard to do, but they could do it. What is Japan going to really do? The Philippines? ASEAN would cover its ass and worry about being next. 

[Pescado_Rojo 19331]

1 hour ago, InkaUtexas said:

They sit back and pound them with missiles. Form a flotilla of junks and give zero fucks about the Chinese ground troops. Would be hard to do, but they could do it. What is Japan going to really do? The Philippines? ASEAN would cover its ass and worry about being next. 

I’d imagine Xi’s idea of acceptable losses would make Stalin blush.

[South Austin 52144]

8 hours ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

I’d imagine Xi’s idea of acceptable losses would make Stalin blush.

[Shady Ray 1633]

While it may be going largely unnoticed in a lot of the US media, the French might be making some progress with the Russians on the narrow scope of Ukraine itself, while at the same time flexing some diplomatic muscle with the local citizenry in Western Europe and in France. This afternoon’s phone call will be the third time in a week that Putin and Macron have spoken via video conference…once on Friday, again on Monday afternoon, and now again today. And the latest is that Macron may make a visit to Moscow to meet directly with Putin - a visit which may also include Chancellor Olaf Scholz. Macron has also had regular calls to Zelensky, apparently in an attempt to continue reviving the Normandy Format under which Minsk II was negotiated, and there is another one scheduled for after Macron meets with Putin today.

 

https://nationalpost.com/pmn/news-pmn/macron-to-discuss-ukraine-crisis-with-biden-and-putin-in-separate-calls

 

It is of course too early to tell if there is any substance there, but the tone of the readouts from the Russian Foreign Ministry have been very cordial to the French, as has been the case the other way around, and this is doing nothing but helping Macron domestically. Of course, much of this is part of Putin’s efforts to divide allies and nothing does that better than playing to the Gaullist streak in Macron and in the French electorate at large. But it is starting to appear that there actually may be serious discussions going on and IMO the Germans and French are leaning very heavily on Zelensky to agree to certain elements of Minsk II as a foundation for some type of resolution on the topic of the Donbass. We will see in the next few days whether that bears fruit. Zelensky will face extremely strong headwinds domestically if he tries to move towards a Minsk II rehash, as it has never been popular in Ukraine, but the Germans and French would absolutely love to see this gain traction, as it will remove a lot of the pressure to join with the US on measures that they do not want to see implemented, and I would not put it past Berlin and Paris to start to use their own sticks and carrots with Zelensky. Particularly as there appears to be some type of disconnect between Zelensky and the US.

 

If Macron comes out of this ordeal with the perception that he was a leader who helped avoid an escalatory cycle between Moscow and Washington (whether he actually did or not), he will cruise to re-election in April. Valerie Pecresse, his most viable competition, who comes from the center right Republicans, is tanking at the moment and it is almost assured that the election is going to be fought between Macron and the far right Marine Le Pen. Again. Le Pen has already been on record in support of detente with Russia, as that is the position of the French far right base, and, as such, foreign policy will be a huge topic taken off the table for Macron.

 

And while it is easy to scoff at the idea of the French actually making any headway here, this is a very big deal for Macron and he is certainly incentivized to do something. The French, along with German acquiescence, could play a role here diplomatically ...local media still reports on how enraged Macron remains over AUKUS and cutting a deal with Russia whereby the Americans were excluded would be quite some payback - and more importantly for France, would accomplish an objective of demonstrating their ability to lead European Foreign Policy without Washington's involvement. The Germans are taking a lot of the flack in the international press for refusing to play nice, but the French can by no means be said to be aligned with Washington on this ordeal. There is a growing murmur here that Scholz and Macron are gearing up to pursue an independent track along with the Italians (PM Draghi also met directly with Putin this week) and I think it is worthwhile keeping an eye on any momentum there over the next few days.

[Shady Ray 1633]

And just to clarify...there is no circumstance where the French would openly cut a deal without Washington, but what I am referring to is a situation where Berlin and Paris essentially find a way forward on the topic of Ukraine itself (not the larger issue of European security apparatus) and drag the US into a situation where there is immense pressure to go along with it to avoid the risk of a public and destructive discourse within the alliance, a la Iraq War II.

[Captainant 27464]

24 minutes ago, Shady Ray said:

While it may be going largely unnoticed in a lot of the US media, the French might be making some progress with the Russians on the narrow scope of Ukraine itself, while at the same time flexing some diplomatic muscle with the local citizenry in Western Europe and in France. This afternoon’s phone call will be the third time in a week that Putin and Macron have spoken via video conference…once on Friday, again on Monday afternoon, and now again today. And the latest is that Macron may make a visit to Moscow to meet directly with Putin - a visit which may also include Chancellor Olaf Scholz. Macron has also had regular calls to Zelensky, apparently in an attempt to continue reviving the Normandy Format under which Minsk II was negotiated, and there is another one scheduled for after Macron meets with Putin today.

 

https://nationalpost.com/pmn/news-pmn/macron-to-discuss-ukraine-crisis-with-biden-and-putin-in-separate-calls

 

It is of course too early to tell if there is any substance there, but the tone of the readouts from the Russian Foreign Ministry have been very cordial to the French, as has been the case the other way around, and this is doing nothing but helping Macron domestically. Of course, much of this is part of Putin’s efforts to divide allies and nothing does that better than playing to the Gaullist streak in Macron and in the French electorate at large. But it is starting to appear that there actually may be serious discussions going on and IMO the Germans and French are leaning very heavily on Zelensky to agree to certain elements of Minsk II as a foundation for some type of resolution on the topic of the Donbass. We will see in the next few days whether that bears fruit. Zelensky will face extremely strong headwinds domestically if he tries to move towards a Minsk II rehash, as it has never been popular in Ukraine, but the Germans and French would absolutely love to see this gain traction, as it will remove a lot of the pressure to join with the US on measures that they do not want to see implemented, and I would not put it past Berlin and Paris to start to use their own sticks and carrots with Zelensky. Particularly as there appears to be some type of disconnect between Zelensky and the US.

 

If Macron comes out of this ordeal with the perception that he was a leader who helped avoid an escalatory cycle between Moscow and Washington (whether he actually did or not), he will cruise to re-election in April. Valerie Pecresse, his most viable competition, who comes from the center right Republicans, is tanking at the moment and it is almost assured that the election is going to be fought between Macron and the far right Marine Le Pen. Again. Le Pen has already been on record in support of detente with Russia, as that is the position of the French far right base, and, as such, foreign policy will be a huge topic taken off the table for Macron.

 

And while it is easy to scoff at the idea of the French actually making any headway here, this is a very big deal for Macron and he is certainly incentivized to do something. The French, along with German acquiescence, could play a role here diplomatically ...local media still reports on how enraged Macron remains over AUKUS and cutting a deal with Russia whereby the Americans were excluded would be quite some payback - and more importantly for France, would accomplish an objective of demonstrating their ability to lead European Foreign Policy without Washington's involvement. The Germans are taking a lot of the flack in the international press for refusing to play nice, but the French can by no means be said to be aligned with Washington on this ordeal. There is a growing murmur here that Scholz and Macron are gearing up to pursue an independent track along with the Italians (PM Draghi also met directly with Putin this week) and I think it is worthwhile keeping an eye on any momentum there over the next few days.

 

14 minutes ago, Shady Ray said:

And just to clarify...there is no circumstance where the French would openly cut a deal without Washington, but what I am referring to is a situation where Berlin and Paris essentially find a way forward on the topic of Ukraine itself (not the larger issue of European security apparatus) and drag the US into a situation where there is immense pressure to go along with it to avoid the risk of a public and destructive discourse within the alliance, a la Iraq War II.

Seriously... Thank you again for your incredibly insightful posts in this thread! 

To a certain extent, I think the possible French play would be the best possible next step in this chain of events. It would centralize the power and players for that conflict to the people who are actually geographically close to it and directly affected by it, and it would finally be the first signs of an international leader in opposition to Putin. Lord knows the US certainly isn't in a posture to practice diplomacy with a >4 year time horizon

[bolverk 29401]

Pretty wild. Also, note that the Duma is considering recognizing Donbas as an independent nation, which could then provide cover for asking for assistance from the Kremlin.

U.S. Exposes What It Says Is Russian Effort to Fabricate Pretext for Invasion
Officials said Russia was planning a fake video showing an attack by Ukrainians on Russian territory or Russian speakers in eastern Ukraine.

WASHINGTON — The United States has acquired intelligence about a Russian plan to fabricate a pretext for an invasion of Ukraine using a faked video that would build on recent disinformation campaigns, according to senior administration officials and others briefed on the material.

The plan — which the United States hopes to spoil by making public — involves staging and filming a fabricated attack by the Ukrainian military either on Russian territory or against Russian-speaking people in eastern Ukraine.

Russia, the officials said, intended to use the video to accuse Ukraine of genocide against Russian-speaking people. It would then use the outrage over the video to justify an attack or have separatist leaders in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine invite a Russian intervention.

Officials would not release any direct evidence of the Russian plan or how they learned of it, saying to do so would compromise their sources and methods. But both a recent Russian disinformation campaign focused on false accusations of genocide and the recent political actions being taken in the Russian parliament to recognize breakaway governments in Ukraine lent credence to the intelligence.

If carried out, the Russian operation would be an expansion of a propaganda theme that American intelligence officials and outside experts have said Moscow has been pushing on social media, on conspiracy sites and with state-controlled media since November.

The video was intended to be elaborate, officials said, with plans for graphic images of the staged, corpse-strewn aftermath of an explosion and footage of destroyed locations. They said the video was also set to include faked Ukrainian military equipment, Turkish-made drones and actors playing Russian-speaking mourners.

American officials would not say who in Russia precisely was planning the operation, but a senior administration official said that “Russian intelligence is intimately involved in this effort.”

Spoiler

A British government official said that they had done their own analysis on the intelligence and had high confidence that Russia was planning to engineer a pretext to blame Ukraine for an attack. The details of the intelligence, the official said, are “credible and extremely concerning.”

While it is not clear that senior Russian officials approved the operation, it was far along in the planning and the United States had high confidence that it was under serious consideration, officials said. Russian officials had found corpses to use in the video, discussed actors to play mourners and plotted how to make military equipment in the video appear Ukrainian or NATO-supplied.

While the plan sounded far-fetched, American officials said they believed it could have worked to provide a spark for a Russian military operation — an outcome they said they hoped would be made less likely by exposing the effort publicly.

The highlights of the intelligence have been declassified, in hopes of both derailing the plan and convincing allies of the seriousness of the Russian planning. The officials interviewed for this article requested anonymity to discuss declassified but sensitive intelligence before it was released publicly.

Avril D. Haines, the director of national intelligence, and other top administration officials briefed members of Congress on the material on Thursday. Details of the information have also been shared with allies, as the United States and Britain push a kind of intelligence diplomacy.

In recent weeks both Washington and London have outlined elements of Moscow’s war planning, highlighting planned troop buildups, exposing a false-flag sabotage plot and revealing Russian plans to install a friendly government in Kyiv.

The strategy aims to persuade allies that Russia is not posturing and has real war plans that it could put into effect. The releases also aim to force Russia to drop and redraft plans, further delaying any invasion plan.

The longer the international community can delay a decision by President Vladimir V. Putin about whether to approve a military operation against Ukraine, the more of a chance there is that he will reconsider his plans, according to diplomats.

Some officials in the United States and Britain think Mr. Putin has underestimated how many casualties his military would suffer in any direct invasion of Ukraine.

The intelligence diplomacy push is modeled in part on Britain’s efforts to rally a strong response to the Russian nerve agent attack in England in 2018. The British government released information on Russian involvement publicly, and shared other intelligence privately, as it pushed allies to expel Russian diplomats in response.

The move to publicize the plan comes as the Duma, Russia’s lower house of parliament, begins to consider legislation to recognize eastern Ukraine as an independent territory, much as Moscow has recognized Russian-occupied areas of Georgia.

If the Russian parliament were to recognize the Donbas region of Ukraine as an independent state, a Moscow-appointed leader of that breakaway state could then request help from Mr. Putin. Mr. Putin has argued many times that in such a case, an intervention would be in keeping with international law and precedents set by the United States.

American officials believe the plans for the video included Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 drones that have been used by the Ukrainian Army.

In November, after an artillery attack killed a Ukrainian soldier, the Ukrainian Army used one of the drones to launch a counterattack on a howitzer used by Russian-led separatist forces. Russia scrambled jets, and the situation escalated.

Russian disinformation in recent weeks has falsely accused NATO of planning an invasion or intervention into Ukraine. Highlighting the presence of weapons made by Turkey, a NATO ally, would allow the Russians to accuse the alliance of raising tensions in the conflict and being culpable in the death of Russian speakers.

The draft law under consideration in Russia would recognize what Moscow calls the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics. Russia considered recognizing governments in the separatist-controlled region in 2014 but ultimately backed down.

The proposal was revived by members of the Communist Party, the second-largest faction in the Russian Duma, in recent days. The Russian parliamentarians pushing the law have argued that Ukraine is planning an offensive to reassert control of the area. If that happens, the Russian lawmakers argue, Russian-speaking residents will be denied basic rights.

Ukrainian oppression of Russian speakers in eastern Ukraine is a common theme of Russian state media and websites controlled by Russian intelligence services. But the reality is that language is not the hard dividing line in Ukraine that Moscow suggests.

 

[Shady Ray 1633]

And Boris is just falling apart, which gives Macron even more space.
 

Boris literally had to cancel a scheduled phone call with Putin on Monday because he was stuck making a statement to Parliament the UK’s current domestic shitshow, where he is teetering on the verge of a confidence vote due to his regular partying during Covid restrictions. The investigative report came back on Monday basically saying they was a culture of drinking at Downing Street in total violation of protocols in place at the time, so he had to go and try to spin his way out of the mess.
 

So he makes time to fly to Ukraine for a photo op and to announce some new UK-Poland-Ukraine security alliance, and then tries to reschedule for Tuesday afternoon, and the Kremlin tells them to fuck off and wait until Wednesday. It is a total PR clusterfuck.
 

So what happens is that many in an already skeptical Western Europe look to this completely disheveled trainwreck leader of a once great EU power who is flailing both on their island and then over in Ukraine and they look to Macron and say, “Meh. At least you aren’t Boris”.

 

Quote

Johnson-Putin call rescheduled as PM’s diplomacy drive falters
PM had to cancel original call because of partygate statement

A phone call between Boris Johnson and Vladimir Putin that the prime minister was forced to cancel on Monday has been rescheduled for Wednesday, Johnson’s spokesman has said, after the Kremlin rejected a request to hold it on Tuesday.

It is not clear if the initial rejection stemmed from genuine scheduling issues or if it was a calculated snub by Moscow to highlight Britain’s irrelevance, and Johnson’s weakness, but in any case it dealt a blow to Johnson’s efforts to present himself as an important diplomatic player in the Ukraine crisis.

The Monday call was cancelled so Johnson could make a statement to MPs in parliament over Downing Street parties during lockdown.

The prime minister flew to Kyiv on Tuesday offering the Ukraine government £88m to fight corruption, part of a British show of solidarity with the country in its threatened confrontation with Russia.

Johnson will be hoping the brief visit takes attention away from his domestic political travails over sanctioning Downing Street parties during lockdown.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/feb/01/boris-johnson-rebuffed-in-bid-to-play-key-role-in-ukraine-diplomacy

 

 

Edited February 3, 2022 by Shady Ray

[Brisketexan 104628]

1 minute ago, Shady Ray said:

So what happens is that many in an already skeptical Western Europe looks to this completely disheveled trainwreck leader of a once great EU power who is flailing both on their island and then over in Ukraine and they look to Macron and say, “Meh. At least you aren’t that guy”.

This also happens to be my key to a happy marriage: make sure that most of my buddies are bigger fuckups than me, so my wife looks at the pool of similar talent and says "well, at least my mediocre husband isn't the shitshow that those guys are."

I don't have to be faster than the bear, I just have to be faster than you.

[Pescado_Rojo 19331]

49 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

This also happens to be my key to a happy marriage: make sure that most of my buddies are bigger fuckups than me, so my wife looks at the pool of similar talent and says "well, at least my mediocre husband isn't the shitshow that those guys are."

I don't have to be faster than the bear, I just have to be faster than you.

[956 Worldwide 34444]

For me, the only question that is interesting is why Putin wants to talk to Macron and Schulz.  Keep in mind, this is after Russia very openly slapped Europe in the face by announcing that it was only interested in bilats with the United Stares or talks with the Alliance at 30 and that no other parties were relevant. One thing I feel perfectly comfortable saying is that Vladimir Vladimirovich will not be convinced to do anything by Macron or Schulz and that the only thing they might be able to bring to the table is to prod Ukraine into doing something Ukraine doesn’t want to do. And that he really enjoys all of Europe’s luminaries tripping over themselves to get an audience and present their case and swallow his barbs and flattery (there is a deep psychological inferiority complex in the Russian soul vis-a-vis the West and this type of thing really scratches that itch). 

More likely the play is to get one of them to suggest publicly that Ukraine do something unacceptable, then sit back and hope the Alliance fractures over the question of whether Ukraine is doing enough on its end to avoid conflict if Ukraine balks.  It can’t be said enough how mind-boggling it is that a nuclear power has marshaled 100k troops on its neighbor’s border— a neighbor that has never and can never hope to attack them- and still reasonable people are arguing that the neighbor has some responsibility to turn the heat down. 
 

Ukraine has good reason not to come to the table, while both sides have failed in some areas of Minsk II, Russia has adhered to precisely none of its commitments while Ukraine has fulfilled quite a few.  It’s always grimly humorous to watch supposedly more sophisticated Europeans get sucked into Russia’s “heads I win, tails you lose” style of negotiations, or try to sell it as a win for diplomacy when Russia takes only half of a cake someone else baked instead of all of it. 
 

Edited February 3, 2022 by 956 Worldwide

[bolverk 29401]

I read someone somewhere postulate that ideally Putin would like Ukraine to adopt a federalized system so that he could continue to pit the various regions within Ukraine against each other so that it remains a perpetually destabilized country without directly shedding any Russian blood. Maybe that's what Macron is willing to discuss.

The problem for the West is that overtime Ukrainians would likely become increasingly frustrated with their ineffectual government in such a system, and Putin could begin to peel off regions into the Kremlin's orbit. It's more or less the strategy he's trying to pull off with some of the former Warsaw Pact countries, e.g., Hungary, so it makes some sense.

[atomheartbevo 89449]

4 hours ago, bolverk said:

Pretty wild. Also, note that the Duma is considering recognizing Donbas as an independent nation, which could then provide cover for asking for assistance from the Kremlin.

We've been building towards some nation using deep fake videos for some shenanigans like this, and Russia would be at the top of the list (I'd put them up there before the Chinese).

[956 Worldwide 34444]

11 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

We've been building towards some nation using deep fake videos for some shenanigans like this, and Russia would be at the top of the list (I'd put them up there before the Chinese).

Remember in 2014 when a bunch of Russians just took their patches and insignia off their uniforms and the world media seriously debated if they were really Russian soldiers or not?  That was wild, right? Yeah, Putin learned that he can half-ass this stuff and it will give him all the cover he needs. 

[Ghost of LL 15492]

39 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

For me, the only question that is interesting is why Putin wants to talk to Macron and Schulz.  Keep in mind, this is after Russia very openly slapped Europe in the face by announcing that it was only interested in bilats with the United Stares or talks with the Alliance at 30 and that no other parties were relevant. One thing I feel perfectly comfortable saying is that Vladimir Vladimirovich will not be convinced to do anything by Macron or Schulz and that the only thing they might be able to bring to the table is to prod Ukraine into doing something Ukraine doesn’t want to do. And that he really enjoys all of Europe’s luminaries tripping over themselves to get an audience and present their case and swallow his barbs and flattery (there is a deep psychological inferiority complex in the Russian soul vis-a-vis the West and this type of thing really scratches that itch). 

More likely the play is to get one of them to suggest publicly that Ukraine do something unacceptable, then sit back and hope the Alliance fractures over the question of whether Ukraine is doing enough on its end to avoid conflict if Ukraine balks.  It can’t be said enough how mind-boggling it is that a nuclear power has marshaled 100k troops on its neighbor’s border— a neighbor that has never and can never hope to attack them- and still reasonable people are arguing that the neighbor has some responsibility to turn the heat down. 
 

Ukraine has good reason not to come to the table, while both sides have failed in some areas of Minsk II, Russia has adhered to precisely none of its commitments while Ukraine has fulfilled quite a few.  It’s always grimly humorous to watch supposedly more sophisticated Europeans get sucked into Russia’s “heads I win, tails you lose” style of negotiations, or try to sell it as a win for diplomacy when Russia takes only half of a cake someone else baked instead of all of it. 
 

It's no different from the Anglo-French behavior at Munich. They went in asserting that Czechoslovakia had some obligation to reduce tensions with Germany.  And, as appears to happen here, the French and British negotiated directly with the aggressor while excluding the victim of the aggression from any of the discussions over its fate.

Honestly, I can't imagine Macron falling back into that trap.  And I really have to hope that this is some sort of good-cop/bad-cop act that is being choreographed between Paris and Washington.

[Anastasis 23394]

5 hours ago, bolverk said:

Pretty wild. Also, note that the Duma is considering recognizing Donbas as an independent nation, which could then provide cover for asking for assistance from the Kremlin.

U.S. Exposes What It Says Is Russian Effort to Fabricate Pretext for Invasion
Officials said Russia was planning a fake video showing an attack by Ukrainians on Russian territory or Russian speakers in eastern Ukraine.

WASHINGTON — The United States has acquired intelligence about a Russian plan to fabricate a pretext for an invasion of Ukraine using a faked video that would build on recent disinformation campaigns, according to senior administration officials and others briefed on the material.

The plan — which the United States hopes to spoil by making public — involves staging and filming a fabricated attack by the Ukrainian military either on Russian territory or against Russian-speaking people in eastern Ukraine.

Russia, the officials said, intended to use the video to accuse Ukraine of genocide against Russian-speaking people. It would then use the outrage over the video to justify an attack or have separatist leaders in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine invite a Russian intervention.

Officials would not release any direct evidence of the Russian plan or how they learned of it, saying to do so would compromise their sources and methods. But both a recent Russian disinformation campaign focused on false accusations of genocide and the recent political actions being taken in the Russian parliament to recognize breakaway governments in Ukraine lent credence to the intelligence.

If carried out, the Russian operation would be an expansion of a propaganda theme that American intelligence officials and outside experts have said Moscow has been pushing on social media, on conspiracy sites and with state-controlled media since November.

The video was intended to be elaborate, officials said, with plans for graphic images of the staged, corpse-strewn aftermath of an explosion and footage of destroyed locations. They said the video was also set to include faked Ukrainian military equipment, Turkish-made drones and actors playing Russian-speaking mourners.

American officials would not say who in Russia precisely was planning the operation, but a senior administration official said that “Russian intelligence is intimately involved in this effort.”

  Hide contents

A British government official said that they had done their own analysis on the intelligence and had high confidence that Russia was planning to engineer a pretext to blame Ukraine for an attack. The details of the intelligence, the official said, are “credible and extremely concerning.”

While it is not clear that senior Russian officials approved the operation, it was far along in the planning and the United States had high confidence that it was under serious consideration, officials said. Russian officials had found corpses to use in the video, discussed actors to play mourners and plotted how to make military equipment in the video appear Ukrainian or NATO-supplied.

While the plan sounded far-fetched, American officials said they believed it could have worked to provide a spark for a Russian military operation — an outcome they said they hoped would be made less likely by exposing the effort publicly.

The highlights of the intelligence have been declassified, in hopes of both derailing the plan and convincing allies of the seriousness of the Russian planning. The officials interviewed for this article requested anonymity to discuss declassified but sensitive intelligence before it was released publicly.

Avril D. Haines, the director of national intelligence, and other top administration officials briefed members of Congress on the material on Thursday. Details of the information have also been shared with allies, as the United States and Britain push a kind of intelligence diplomacy.

In recent weeks both Washington and London have outlined elements of Moscow’s war planning, highlighting planned troop buildups, exposing a false-flag sabotage plot and revealing Russian plans to install a friendly government in Kyiv.

The strategy aims to persuade allies that Russia is not posturing and has real war plans that it could put into effect. The releases also aim to force Russia to drop and redraft plans, further delaying any invasion plan.

The longer the international community can delay a decision by President Vladimir V. Putin about whether to approve a military operation against Ukraine, the more of a chance there is that he will reconsider his plans, according to diplomats.

Some officials in the United States and Britain think Mr. Putin has underestimated how many casualties his military would suffer in any direct invasion of Ukraine.

The intelligence diplomacy push is modeled in part on Britain’s efforts to rally a strong response to the Russian nerve agent attack in England in 2018. The British government released information on Russian involvement publicly, and shared other intelligence privately, as it pushed allies to expel Russian diplomats in response.

The move to publicize the plan comes as the Duma, Russia’s lower house of parliament, begins to consider legislation to recognize eastern Ukraine as an independent territory, much as Moscow has recognized Russian-occupied areas of Georgia.

If the Russian parliament were to recognize the Donbas region of Ukraine as an independent state, a Moscow-appointed leader of that breakaway state could then request help from Mr. Putin. Mr. Putin has argued many times that in such a case, an intervention would be in keeping with international law and precedents set by the United States.

American officials believe the plans for the video included Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 drones that have been used by the Ukrainian Army.

In November, after an artillery attack killed a Ukrainian soldier, the Ukrainian Army used one of the drones to launch a counterattack on a howitzer used by Russian-led separatist forces. Russia scrambled jets, and the situation escalated.

Russian disinformation in recent weeks has falsely accused NATO of planning an invasion or intervention into Ukraine. Highlighting the presence of weapons made by Turkey, a NATO ally, would allow the Russians to accuse the alliance of raising tensions in the conflict and being culpable in the death of Russian speakers.

The draft law under consideration in Russia would recognize what Moscow calls the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics. Russia considered recognizing governments in the separatist-controlled region in 2014 but ultimately backed down.

The proposal was revived by members of the Communist Party, the second-largest faction in the Russian Duma, in recent days. The Russian parliamentarians pushing the law have argued that Ukraine is planning an offensive to reassert control of the area. If that happens, the Russian lawmakers argue, Russian-speaking residents will be denied basic rights.

Ukrainian oppression of Russian speakers in eastern Ukraine is a common theme of Russian state media and websites controlled by Russian intelligence services. But the reality is that language is not the hard dividing line in Ukraine that Moscow suggests.

 

 

 

Really shocked to see the NYT doing stenography for the intelligence community. 

 

[956 Worldwide 34444]

On 2/2/2022 at 9:33 PM, atomheartbevo said:

I don't know if we would do anything militarily, but China is a lot easier to deal with - they have to cross 100 miles of water.  They can't easily fly everything they need in and take over a nation of 23 million - this isn't D-Day, 1944 where they had 3,000+ cargo aircraft and gliders.  Taiwan has plenty of air defenses as well.

Getting their heavy equipment and large groups of troops into Taiwan means on slow ocean-going ships, which makes for really easy targets to put on the bottom of the strait.

And that's before we get into the economic losses if the US puts on a full-scale embargo/etc. and American (and other nations) companies take their business elsewhere.  China would have to make that food up somewhere else, and they'd have to figure out how to make up the economic losses/keep their people fed and employed. 

Hitler also didn’t have spy satellites and was fighting a two front war. Images of China readying an invasion and landing force would make for interesting tabletop analysis. I wonder what a carrier battle group parked in the Taiwan Strait would mean for their planners? 

Edited February 3, 2022 by 956 Worldwide

[956 Worldwide 34444]

7 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

 

 

Really shocked to see the NYT doing stenography for the intelligence community. 

 

The intern should have at least sent a request for comment to the SVR press inbox.  Appalling lack of balance in the coverage here.

[Anastasis 23394]

12 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

The intern should have at least sent a request for comment to the SVR press inbox.  Appalling lack of balance in the coverage here.

Or maybe just ask the US IC for the release of the actual evidence. 

It's not like we have not been down this road with the NYT (and the IC) many times before. Ranging from Iraq to Afghanistan. I mean they basically called themselves out after the Iraq invasion.  But here we are again.

I get that in these times the default response to anyone that suggests that our intelligence community-media dynamic may be totally dysfunctional is to cry "Russia Russia Russia". 

Edited February 3, 2022 by Anastasis

[956 Worldwide 34444]

3 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Or maybe just ask the US IC for the release of the actual evidence. 

It's not like we have not been down this road with the NYT (and the IC) many times before. Ranging from Iraq to Afghanistan. I mean they basically called themselves out after the Iraq invasion.  But here we are again.

I get that in these times the default response to anyone that suggests that our intelligence community-media dynamic may be totally dysfunctional is to cry "Russia Russia Russia". 

Since 2014 Russia has marshaled 100K troops on the border of Ukraine, has invaded and occupied vast swathes of a sovereign country while denying what they were doing in front of our eyes, has funneled weapons and logistical support to groups that shot down a civilian airliner, has deployed chemical weapons on foreign soil, has engineered an explosion that killed two people in a different country, among other dirty deeds.
 

But yeah, “Russia Russia Russia!” That’s all this is.  You’re out of your depth on this. Take the Tucker slogans back to CR. 

[Anastasis 23394]

Just now, 956 Worldwide said:

Since 2014 Russia has marshaled 100K troops on the border of Ukraine, has invaded and occupied vast swathes of a sovereign country while denying what they were doing in front of our eyes, has funneled weapons and logistical support to groups that shot down a civilian airliner, has deployed chemical weapons on foreign soil, has engineered an explosion that killed two people in a different country, among other dirty deeds.
 

But yeah, “Russia Russia Russia!” That’s all this is.  You’re out of your depth on this. Take the Tucker slogans back to CR. 

LOL. Invoking the "SVR press inbox" to deflect from the failures of the US IC and the US media in covering these topics broadly over decades, while redirecting me under cover of Tucker Carlson is chef's fucking kiss.  

[Brisketexan 104628]

3 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Since 2014 Russia has marshaled 100K troops on the border of Ukraine, has invaded and occupied vast swathes of a sovereign country while denying what they were doing in front of our eyes, has funneled weapons and logistical support to groups that shot down a civilian airliner, has deployed chemical weapons on foreign soil, has engineered an explosion that killed two people in a different country, among other dirty deeds.
 

But yeah, “Russia Russia Russia!” That’s all this is.  You’re out of your depth on this. Take the Tucker slogans back to CR. 

 

Seriously, the fucking overcompensating to completely and totally dismiss any discussion of, you know, Russia actually doing tangible and indisputable bad shit, is fucking absurd, chickenshit, and exhausting.

Russia is a fucking global bad actor.  And noting that "well, they were once accused of X and didn't really do X, so all talk of Russia is brainworms" is such a logically fallacious blindspot that it's fucking infuriating and at least a little puzzling.

[Brisketexan 104628]

2 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

LOL. Invoking the "SVR press inbox" to deflect from the failures of the US IC and the US media in covering these topics broadly over decades, while redirecting me under cover of Tucker Carlson is chef's fucking kiss.  

Tucker wishes he could give cover to even the concept of Russian malfeasance as well as you could.  So, you're right, there's a gap between y'all.

[956 Worldwide 34444]

1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

 

Seriously, the fucking overcompensating to completely and totally dismiss any discussion of, you know, Russia actually doing tangible and indisputable bad shit, is fucking absurd, chickenshit, and exhausting.

Russia is a fucking global bad actor.  And noting that "well, they were once accused of X and didn't really do X, so all talk of Russia is brainworms" is such a logically fallacious blindspot that it's fucking infuriating and at least a little puzzling.

It’s also a complete misrepresentation of what the IC actually said in its assessment of what Russia did in 2016– which is that they deployed a massive and coordinated disinformation campaign designed to interfere in the integrity of our election.  And that absolutely fucking happened. 
 

Conflating that with some of the claims and theories tossed out by political actors that were wrong and/or exaggerated is bullshit, and it’s also pretty much text book Kremlin deflect and disorient tactics. 

[956 Worldwide 34444]

11 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Tucker wishes he could give cover to even the concept of Russian malfeasance as well as you could.  So, you're right, there's a gap between y'all.

Seriously, let’s just review some of the known shit that Russia has done.  They used a rare nerve agent to try and kill a former spy and ended up killing two British homeless people.  They told people that maybe a Ukrainian jet shot down an airliner, or maybe a Ukrainian missile, or hey- maybe it just fell apart like airplanes do. (Non-official propaganda suggested that maybe it was a fake flight full of corpses that got shot down just to make Russia look bad).

Yeah, it’s totally nuts that this crew might make a fake video. Better ask the IC to reveal methods and sources if we want to believe them. 

[Anastasis 23394]

1 minute ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Better ask the IC to reveal methods and sources if we want to believe them. 

They would get a longer leash if not the long list of failures costing American lives, not to note the less easily measured endpoints.  

But it's really great that pointing out the failures of the US IC and the intertwined US media becomes an exercise in excusing them because all the bad things that we agree Russia has done. 

[Brisketexan 104628]

They would get a longer leash if not the long list of failures costing American lives, not to note the less easily measured endpoints.  
But it's really great that pointing out the failures of the US IC and the intertwined US media becomes an exercise in excusing them because all the bad things that we agree Russia has done. 

Except we don’t agree. Because everything we know about Russia came from either some intelligence services and/or was reported by the media. So, intelligence and the media are bad, and can’t be trusted, so really, do we know that Russia has EVER done anything bad? Nope, we don’t, so LEAVE RUSSIA ALONE!

It get fucking old, and you’re goddamned well aware that you use that approach to de facto excuse any wrongdoing by genuine bad actors.