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Posted
1 minute ago, staboner said:

yeah man its no longer possible. The win was based on an easy victory and Ukraine not being the Ukraine we are seeing now. 

not only would a puppet not last in terms of resources, it would mean a permanent disconnect of Russia from the world. The world now sees clearly a population of people that don't want shit to do with Russia. that image and that known quantity now out in the wild is the deathwish to putin. ya fucked up son

internal coup dead ass putin is all we have left on table. 

We may need some of your feel good ‘thankfully no nukes’ posts.  

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Posted
2 hours ago, Message Board User said:

 

longtime reader, first time poster to the thread. first, fuck this guy. if i have some free time this week, going to go with a sign that says fuck russia to the embassy. West 91st street is a bit of a trek but fuck them. Just called the consulate and told the dude who answered his country sucks.

 

2 hours ago, GabrielsHorn said:

 

nuclear tipped land mines? wtf? I can see their viability as a defensive option but for an invading army? Whatevs, fuck putin.

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Posted

The World piling onto Russia with bans and sanctions may be an act of war in itself, and I'm OK with that.  It isn't the EU or NATO or the US doing it.  It's most of the Free World. Even Germany.

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Posted
11 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Oh being safely distanced from daddy?  There will be Russian billionaires doing backroom deals to end this regime.  Mark it down.  It’s not a guarantee they’ll succeed but money talks.  
 

 

Also, having your PJ grounded is the stuff of nightmares.  Yikes

It'll be like mafia sit down when one of the bosses gets way out of line.

Posted
1 minute ago, Parliament said:

The World piling onto Russia with bans and sanctions may be an act of war in itself, and I'm OK with that.  It isn't the EU or NATO or the US doing it.  It's most of the Free World. Even Germany.

Which is how it’s supposed to be.  Good for them.   

Posted
I mean- I hope not. I don’t want to see 8 figure casualties in Russia, even if their leader drops a nuclear weapon.  Most of that country is as much a victim of him as most of the rest of the world. I’d like to think we’d give the Russian people a few hours to do what needs to be done on their own. 
with him talking like this they should already be on that. 


This would be the smart, measured play. “Hey Russkies, your boy is trying to get you all killed. We are not going to counterstrike….in order to give you time to solve the problem yourself. We want you to live. You want to live. Do what is necessary for peace, and Russia will be welcomed back Into the world community. Do not, and the destruction and death will be unimaginable. Please don’t make us do that.”

Putin is a dead man at this point.  Its just a matter of how, not if.  Cognitively impaired Putin would even recognize this.  Basically, if he agrees to pull out his troops, he dead because the Oligarchs will kill him for blowing their money.  If he orders a withdraw, its not as if the SWIFT removal will be stopped.  
If he doesn't withdraw, odds keep going up that either the Oligarchs kill him, or he faces a full blown revolution and he gets Gaddaffi'd (stabbed in the ass to bleed out in a sewer).  
If you know you are a dead man, and selfish prick, do you care about a launching nukes?  Who the fuck knows, maybe something will stick in your favor.  I think we are at this point.

All of this “no troops” talk but Putin said any interference would lead to… make no mistake this is a proxy war directly with Russia. It’s not two proxies, they are in it neck deep and we are using Ukraine as a proxy, justified for sure but a decade of training, recruiting, preparing, equipping and now we are their supply chain. This is a US proxy war against Russia directly. And our success (taking NOTHING away from Zelensky and his military) is going to lead to an escalation to deescalate unless Putin gets territory and more. That’s not going to happen, so we need to be prepared. If he isn’t taken out the chance of tactical nukes in Ukraine are probably greater than 50/50. 

I need to know what the political Nostradamus of Surly, BrisketTexas, believes is going to happen. Every time he posts some outrageous, unbelievable prediction, he's been right more often than not.


As much as I hate Putin, and as much as I am gleefully cheering every Russian setback, I don’t think any of us can really understand how dangerous a moment we are all in. A cornered dog will bite. When the dog is rabid….it’s worse.

I think we’re in a situation where Russian use of a nuke is about a 50/50 proposition. Which is horrifyingly high. A self-immolating nuclear power led by a madman is not great.

The Russian people and leadership need to save the world right now. Really. That’s who we’re counting on. They’re the only ones who can pull it off.
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Posted
3 minutes ago, achooloco said:

nuclear tipped land mines? 

You know the guy that thought that up was really struggling to keep his R&D position. Luckily there was defense money that had to be spent somewhere.

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Posted
8 hours ago, Message Board User said:

 

8 hours late to this post. But yeah, makes no sense.

 

My military command experience is limited to Dune 2000, but even I know to overwhelm the enemy base with a tank rush with Ornithopter support.

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Posted
1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

 


This would be the smart, measured play. “Hey Russkies, your boy is trying to get you all killed. We are not going to counterstrike….in order to give you time to solve the problem yourself. We want you to live. You want to live. Do what is necessary for peace, and Russia will be welcomed back Into the world community. Do not, and the destruction and death will be unimaginable. Please don’t make us do that.”





As much as I hate Putin, and as much as I am gleefully cheering every Russian setback, I don’t think any of us can really understand how dangerous a moment we are all in. A cornered dog will bite. When the dog is rabid….it’s worse.

I think we’re in a situation where Russian use of a nuke is about a 50/50 proposition. Which is horrifyingly high. A self-immolating nuclear power led by a madman is not great.

The Russian people and leadership need to save the world right now. Really. That’s who we’re counting on. They’re the only ones who can pull it off.

 

Brisket and I agree, 50/50 on nukes a fucking coin flip now, 40 years after I had kiddo nightmares about it. Ho-lee fuck.

Posted
1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:


I think we’re in a situation where Russian use of a nuke is about a 50/50 proposition. Which is horrifyingly high. A self-immolating nuclear power led by a madman is not great.

 

 

I think your 50/50 odds is higher than what it really is, but do you think it was worth a 50/50 shot at nuclear utilization to protect Ukraine? That’s what I’m getting at here. Everyone is riled up in the rah rah let’s get ‘em but what is actually going to happen here? 

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Posted
Just now, troph said:

Brisket and I agree, 50/50 on nukes a fucking coin flip now, 40 years after I had kiddo nightmares about it. Ho-lee fuck.

I think the Generals take him out before that. Meanwhile, if they cannot take Kyiv in the next 48 hours I would start watching for missing generals. "Stay away from windows Sir." 

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Posted
33 minutes ago, troph said:

We have plenty of water, going to grab some rice and beans (x5) and some charcoal under the radar the next day or so just in case. Guns and ammo covered. We have our rv generators too, might grab some petrol for them. 

Grow some balls.... wait. 😘

Posted
Just now, SimonBolivar said:

You know the guy that thought that up was really struggling to keep his R&D position. Luckily there was defense money that had to be spent somewhere.

Yeah, I knew what everything on that list was except 'Nuclear Tipped land mines."  I haven't googled it yet because I wanna see if I can figure out the general mechanics and tactical usage of it on my own.  

I can't imagine that minesweeper pep talk from their C.O.  

"Okay, alpha team...sweep this section for POMZ mines.  bravo team, you sweep that section for TM mines.  charlie team, you sweep this other section for nuclear tipped mines." 

Charlie team leader, "What the fuck did you just say?  Nuclear land mine?  Putting all my obvious questions aside, let me start with 'what the fuck do I do with it even if I find it'?"  

Posted
Just now, InkaUtexas said:

I think the Generals take him out before that. Meanwhile, if they cannot take Kyiv in the next 48 hours I would start watching for missing generals. "Stay away from windows Sir." 

I do think that’s the only way out. And I was told to take a chill pill two days ago when I said he needed to be assassinated. Here we are.

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Posted
21 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

They are grounding all oligarch jets.  They can’t land or take off anywhere in europe.  Do you really not think they’ll pool resources and put 100M each on Putin’s head?   

Oligarchs will not be the ones to pull of a coup. They’ll be witnesses like you and I. 

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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, pops said:

Grow some balls.... wait. 😘

These two Lezzies can out last most of you skinny jean cuties. Love you back! ❤️

Edited by troph
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Posted
Just now, The Ace of Aces said:

Oligarchs will not be the ones to pull of a coup. They’ll be witnesses like you and I. 

A Military coup will be facilitated by the military.   Now backing, funding, and prodding is another story 

Posted
1 minute ago, The Ace of Aces said:

Oligarchs will not be the ones to pull of a coup. They’ll be witnesses like you and I. 

Discussion has been that vlad is hunkered down and is likely hard to get to, probs a general or person in the room with him.

Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, troph said:

I do think that’s the only way out. And I was told to take a chill pill two days ago when I said he needed to be assassinated. Here we are.

Still needing a chill pill?

Edited by Bevo
Posted
I think the Generals take him out before that. Meanwhile, if they cannot take Kyiv in the next 48 hours I would start watching for missing generals. "Stay away from windows Sir." 
If we're thinking it, it's likely Putin is thinking it. Paranoia is running sky high in the Ural Mountains, right now.

Smoke'em if ya got'em, boys and girls. Gonna be a hard week.
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Posted
I think your 50/50 odds is higher than what it really is, but do you think it was worth a 50/50 shot at nuclear utilization to protect Ukraine? That’s what I’m getting at here. Everyone is riled up in the rah rah let’s get ‘em but what is actually going to happen here? 

Yes…I think it was worth it. I still do. Because when the other option is “give evil complete free reign,” that’s not an option at all.
Putin INSISTED on this war. Crimea sure as shit proved that appeasement is not just not the answer, it makes it even worse, and makes further violence inevitable.
Eventually, civilization has to draw the line. This event was the “eventually.” I wish Putin was sane. My wish will not come true.
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Posted
20 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

The 60 minutes story tonight indicated that terrorists or foreign actors only have to take out between 9 and 21 transformer stations nationwide to take down the entire non-Texas grid. Ya. Not good.

I've mentioned this before but I was in on a DHS exercise for ERCOT when this scenario was discussed. It's even less to take down the Texas grid and the time to get things back online is not a quick turnaround.

 

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Posted
Just now, Bevo said:

Still needing a chill pill?

Nah. Gonna go watch the last few episodes of Yellowstone in a minute though. I do think the end game here is becoming pretty clear though. 

Posted
Just now, F250 said:

I've mentioned this before but I was in on a DHS exercise for ERCOT when this scenario was discussed. It's even less to take down the Texas grid and the time to get things back online is not a quick turnaround.

 

What is it, 72 hours?  A week?  

Posted
3 minutes ago, The Ace of Aces said:

Oligarchs will not be the ones to pull of a coup. They’ll be witnesses like you and I. 

They’ll help pay.  Some of them at the least. They will always have plausible deniability.  It’s like you don’t know how the mob and strong men work…

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Posted
49 minutes ago, The Ace of Aces said:

I haven’t posted much about Putin himself so this is as god as time as any. 

Vladimir Putin is no mastermind. He is clever and had great political instincts (until recently) but he’s not very smart. He does not think things through. He gets an idea, acts on it, and then figured out later how to manage the situation he created. His KGB training didn’t allow for thinking things through and the fact he was plucked out to be a leader was a little luck and a lot of happenstance and nothing really to do with his mindset.

I know quite a few who have had to deal with him/his admin directly. They all say he’s not all that bright. 

Wasn't there a State Department cable put out by Wikileaks that suggested after psych evaluation that Putin might have Asperger's? That would explain the very high competence in many areas and deficiencies elsewhere.

It was the Pentagon, actually.

Quote

Both reports, the 2008 study of Putin and a 2011 analysis of Putin and then-President Dimitry Medvedev, cite Putin's physical difficulties as shaping his decision making and behavior. "His primary form of compensation is extreme control," which "is reflected in his decision style and how he governs," the report said.

Military analysts first noticed Putin's movement patterns on Jan. 1, 2000, "in the first television footage ever seen of the then, newly appointed president of Russia," wrote Connors, who has been studying movement patterns for the Pentagon since 1996.

Quote

Medvedev, she wrote, is an "Action Man," who "is inclined to size up situations quickly and to do so in black and white terms, shunning subtler shades of gray."

Putin, on the other hand, "has very different predilections," and "methodically cycles back to aspects of the problem facing him, continuing revising data to verify his research and confirm his priorities," the report said.

U.S. officials should present "the information-craving" Putin with "meaty policy research and white papers," Connors recommended. "Putin the private decision maker cannot be expected to enter into public exchanges with others on information interpretation or a final course of action."

 

Posted
30 minutes ago, SimonBolivar said:

By the way Ukrainian is free to learn on Duolingo for anyone looking to help prop up the culture.

Videos this week have taught me that you can cross Eastern Europe saying only Suka Blyat' Putin na Khuy Putin Khuylo.

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Posted
Just now, ChiTownDoc said:

They’ll help pay.  Some of them at the least. They will always have plausible deniability.  It’s like you don’t know how the mob and strong men work…

Same with the cartels.  A lot of their families live in the US.  Inter-cartel wars are bad for business.

 

Posted
1 minute ago, F250 said:

I've mentioned this before but I was in on a DHS exercise for ERCOT when this scenario was discussed. It's even less to take down the Texas grid and the time to get things back online is not a quick turnaround.

 

I thought all you needed was a little girl who knows UNIX and someone with enough gumption to flip the power switch.

Posted

JFC @ Rubio's latest tweet.   Not sure I understand the strategy but that's the kind of shit that might start a panic here.  And considering these tweets are presumably all authorized it's fucking concerning.

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Posted

 

4 minutes ago, troph said:

Discussion has been that vlad is hunkered down and is likely hard to get to, probs a general or person in the room with him.

 

no one is coming within striking distance of him. anyone in the same room has probably been stripped searched. once in the room, no one is getting close to him 

Posted
15 minutes ago, Parliament said:

The World piling onto Russia with bans and sanctions may be an act of war in itself, and I'm OK with that.  It isn't the EU or NATO or the US doing it.  It's most of the Free World. Even Germany.

So yeah, it is an act of war. We didn’t start it. And it’s not as permanent as invading or killing people, but it is a war. 

Posted
1 minute ago, Lobo said:

What is it, 72 hours?  A week?  

Months. This assumes some other factors that I won't discuss but definitely not weeks.

Dan Rather wrote a really insightful book called Blackout that discusses all the grid's vulnerabilities and touches on this particular scenario.

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