Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[Wulaw Horn 19,068]

3 minutes ago, The Ace of Aces said:

The USSR went from the world’s most stable government to collapse in 72 hours.  

Exactly. Such is the way of governments. Democracies look messy and unstable and chaotic but they are strong as shit (I’ve always laughed off the ledge people regarding our “democracy in peril” set). Authoritarian governments look strong and stable but in reality they are brittle as fuck and can snap at a moments notice. 
there’s a reason the autocrat is so afraid of his population while our politicians are not. 

[BachelorTrek 2,967]

12 minutes ago, Wally Pryor said:

Forest for the trees...Why is Russia struggling? Poor planning? Overrated military? Ukranians dug in beyond expectations? All of the above?

They seem to have big-time logistics problems everywhere, and the Ukrainians are savaging their supply convoys, too.

An example:
I haven't seen any heavy recovery vehicles in any of their pre-invasion or invasion columns in the many videos of them online, so the crews just abandon vehicles if they get stuck for whatever reason.
 

Here's another T-90 (the ruskies' best tank) and 2S3 self-propelled howitzer stuck in the very deep mud. Mud like this means the ruskie columns have to stay on the roads where they can more easily get picked-off.

[SmokeyTheBear 5,562]

5 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

This.
The rest of y’all, try to come up with an endgame where Vlad DOESN’T use a tactical nuke?
He’s never getting his easy win. His BEST case is to capture cities and continue to get his forces slaughtered (and eventually pushed out of some of those cities) by an incredibly well armed and well funded resistance. Nevermind the crippling sanctions and complete ostracism from the international community that aren’t going away. Nevermind a NATO that is bigger and stronger than ever, and likely has new members. That is Vlad’s WIN.
Nope. He’s not going to accept that. His best remaining move is to escalate, use weapons of mass destruction, and hope that it scares the west badly enough that they offer him terms that allow him to declare victory in Ukraine.
At this point, it may be that the two most likely options are 1) Putin uses a tactical nuke, or 2) Putin is killed in an inside job.

Yup 

[ChiTownDoc 21,144]

3 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

I don’t think anyone on late nite Surl needs another drink. Or they need 10 more. No in between.

 

[Brisketexan 105,083]

This is one of the dumber posts in the history of this site.  Congrats  
You’re either a fucking idiot or are so easily conditioned that it’s embarrassing. You should almost never take a 50/50 risk of nuclear weapons being deployed by an adversary as a potential outcome of your actions. Much less over a nation with which we share minimal cultural attachments and has minimal financial entanglements (for most Americans). 
 
Evil didn’t have free reign. We’ve provided assistance and had provided for years before this.  
 
The way our media and political establishment is marching together makes me uncomfortable. 

Counterpoint: the only thing dumber than confronting a deranged nuclear adversary is continuing to enable him.
It’s like a woman trying to continually behave in just the right way so her abuser won’t beat her: it’s a strategy that buys peace today, but will inevitably result in a beating down the road. Because abusers are abusers.
What we’re seeing is that Putin was who he is all along. And that he won’t stop. This line being drawn isnt because Ukraine is our most valued ally or anything like that. It’s because Vlad has shown us who he is, and at some point, he has to be stopped.

[XYZ 2,154]

I’d like to think that in a country like the USA the president doesn’t just call for a nuclear strike against some target and it happens. That there are senior military brass that would get the chance to say “mr. president, we need to talk” before the birds are in the air. Anyway, I hope that Russia has some checks and balances, too.

[MillerEP 30,448]

 

[BabaYaga 15,289]

4 minutes ago, SizzleChest said:

It's a hypothetical.  It's not real.  I'm just saying I'd want to know if I had access to the truth.

Is that hard to understand?

I understand your hypothetical.  But that’s not what is happening.  This is fear porn.  

[RDCanecutter 26,403]

16 minutes ago, BachelorTrek said:

ruskies' T-90 tank, their most advanced tank, fall down and go Boom from a handheld anti-tank missile.
 

If that wasn't an abandoned tank, what you're seeing here is bad training plus severe sleep deprivation.

[Braff Zacklin 13,556]

This talk of nukes reminds me of one of my favorite songs from the 80s--one of Sting's best works, imo.

 

[rpspeed 1,363]

2 minutes ago, BachelorTrek said:

They seem to have big-time logistics problems everywhere, and the Ukrainians are savaging their supply convoys, too.

An example:
I haven't seen any heavy recovery vehicles in any of their pre-invasion or invasion columns in the many videos of them online, so the crews just abandon vehicles if they get stuck for whatever reason.
 

Here's another T-90 (the ruskies' best tank) and 2S3 self-propelled howitzer stuck in the very deep mud. Mud like this means the ruskie columns have to stay on the roads where they can more easily get picked-off.

know some folks that go to alligator run that would have those out in no time with a few straps and a snatch block

[SizzleChest 8,283]

Just now, BabaYaga said:

I understand your hypothetical.  But that’s not what is happening.  This is fear porn.  

[Bevo 13,570]

2 minutes ago, XYZ said:

I’d like to think that in a country like the USA the president doesn’t just call for a nuclear strike against some target and it happens. That there are senior military brass that would get the chance to say “mr. president, we need to talk” before the birds are in the air. Anyway, I hope that Russia has some checks and balances, too.

Like in the movie Armageddon.

[Aqua Buddha 14,582]

2 minutes ago, XYZ said:

I’d like to think that in a country like the USA the president doesn’t just call for a nuclear strike against some target and it happens. That there are senior military brass that would get the chance to say “mr. president, we need to talk” before the birds are in the air. Anyway, I hope that Russia has some checks and balances, too.

[Parliament 14,249]

9 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

If the Belarusians were launching at 5am, like that tweet said, that's in 5 mins.

 

Edit: nvm that's tomorrow

Wait, what?  We know 24 hours in advance?  Seems like it's a bad idea to go forward with it.

[USNALonghorn 5,078]

15 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

How tactical are those Russian nukes?

Let’s hope we never find out.

[freyguy 4,265]

3 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

 

aaand removal of trade sanctions between us & China in 3...2...1...

[Goredho 17,397]

25 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

No fucking shit.  

What is his purpose? To scare Americans?  

He has succeeded as far as I am concerned.  A repeat of 1962?

I don't understand what he is trying to accomplish by continuing to say that Putin may well launch nukes on us.

My hope is that he’s speaking to people in the Russian government that are in a position to act against Putin.  Fostering what would have to be growing concerns that they are being led to their doom by a madman.

[cactusflinthead 27,598]

28 minutes ago, rpspeed said:

Wonder what took these out, wasnt a molotov

 

Spring thaw. It's no longer frozen enough to go cross country. Gotta stay on the roads or they're gonna sink in the mud. Which makes them great targets.

[USNALonghorn 5,078]

Just now, Parliament said:

Wait, what?  We know 24 hours in advance?  Seems like it's a bad idea to go forward with it.

That hasn’t stopped them so far. These assholes don’t give two shuts about their people. It’s all just an ego fueled war game to them.

[J.R. 150]

Does anyone have any good recent podcasts on this topic to recommend 

[Celery Man 20,933]

51 minutes ago, SizzleChest said:

More like shooting looters at HEB.  YOU CAN'T NUKE HEB!!

the Aransas Pass HEB can actually survive a nuclear explosion

[BrickHorn 18,217]

Just now, Celery Man said:

the Aransas Pass HEB can actually survive a nuclear explosion

It could, if it were open.

[InkaUtexas 25,876]

Fuck this other autocrat. I wonder what deal he has cut with Putin. 

 

[Guest Lobo]

1 minute ago, Parliament said:

Wait, what?  We know 24 hours in advance?  Seems like it's a bad idea to go forward with it.

Yeah, their announcement reminded me of Ted & Elaine in "Airplane!" on the beach.

Belarus Paratrooper to his girlfriend, "My orders came through.  My squad takes off tomorrow, we're attacking their storage depots in Kiev at 1800hrs.  We're coming in from the North, below their radar."

Girlfriend, "When will you be back?"

Belarus Paratrooper, "I can't tell you that.  It's classified." 

[GabrielsHorn 2,183]

1 minute ago, J.R. said:

Does anyone have any good recent podcasts on this topic to recommend 

Plain English had two good ones last week, but in all honesty, this is loving much too quick to have a recent podcast that captures the existing picture. 

[BabaYaga 15,289]

More on the changing geopolitical landscape.  Japan says remember us?

 

[Pods 7,551]

6 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Exactly. Such is the way of governments. Democracies look messy and unstable and chaotic but they are strong as shit (I’ve always laughed off the ledge people regarding our “democracy in peril” set). Authoritarian governments look strong and stable but in reality they are brittle as fuck and can snap at a moments notice. 
there’s a reason the autocrat is so afraid of his population while our politicians are not. 

As bad as it looked, there is hope now. People are finally standing up to the single biggest destabilizing, anti-democratic force on the planet.

Putin has vaporized years worth of infiltrating Western governments, years of drip-drip-drip appeasement polices. The greed, arrogance, evil and hubris of a small-minded narcissist, surrounded by sycophants laid bare for all to see.

Putin couldn't have fucked this up this massively if he'd set out to do it on purpose, it's amazing. 

[Pescado_Rojo 19,416]

So we find someone to give Putin a Sicilian Necktie. Then what? I assume we don't want Lavrov or Medvedev in power, as they were Putin acolytes. Who from the military that would be palatable to the west could take and hold power long enough for elections and a Russian return to the civilized world? The Defense Minister that got sacked? If he's still alive...

[BabaYaga 15,289]

1 minute ago, InkaUtexas said:

. I wonder what arms deal he has cut with Putin. 

Toys.  Expensive toys. 

[GabrielsHorn 2,183]

Good thread:

 

[Guest Lobo]

1 minute ago, BabaYaga said:

More on the changing geopolitical landscape.  Japan says remember us?

 

Holy shit.  That awkward moment when you and your side are so hated, that the head of the only nation to have been attacked by nuclear weapons announces to the world, "You know what?  We'll take a few warheads to point at Russia.  How bad can it be to have these things around again?"  

[BamaATL 16,593]

1 minute ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

So we find someone to give Putin a Sicilian Necktie. Then what? I assume we don't want Lavrov or Medvedev in power, as they were Putin acolytes. Who from the military that would be palatable to the west could take and hold power long enough for elections and a Russian return to the civilized world? The Defense Minister that got sacked? If he's still alive...

Mikhail Gorbachev if he has the strength for it.  He is 91 I think, only down side.

[TwiceHorn 31,440]

2 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Counterpoint: the only thing dumber than confronting a deranged nuclear adversary is continuing to enable him.
It’s like a woman trying to continually behave in just the right way so her a sure won’t beat her: it’s a strategy that buys peace today, but will inevitably result in a beating down the road. Because abusers are abusers.
What we’re seeing is that Putin was who he is all along. And that he won’t stop. This like being drawn isnt because Ukraine is our most valued ally or anything like that. It’s because Vlad has shown us who he is, and at some point, he has to be stopped.

If we indulged in some kind of appeasement here, there's little doubt he'd try it again, and on a NATO country, this time.

And we'd be more "culturally" and "financially" aligned with that NATO country, perhaps, for whatever that's worth.  But it would also be more complicated because Article 5 would require us to come to their defense, and probably not in the non-belligerent ways we have done so thus far.  Or risk NATO being viewed as a paper tiger.  And without the benefit of having a square knot jerked in Europe's ass, as has happened here.

So, put this off, and we've very likely got Americans in a shooting war in Europe AND subject to a tactical nuclear strike and further nuclear escalation.

We should have sacked up over Crimea.

 

 

[clapclapclap 9,000]

So what's a realistic off ramp for Putin? 

Thankfully we've got our psyops turned up to 11 and appear to be doing a good job, aimed at the generals and the Russian public.  Keeping Facebook open to Russia is probably a good idea, even though it is censored.  Lots of diaspora Russians getting real info around the world and calling/texting relatives back home.   The more this can be strung out the more at least significant portions of truth can take root there.

Unfortunately I don't think it will work to the extent of Putin being deposed.  But is it possible to negotiate that would give him enough of a face saving win for his ego?  Ukraine formally ceding Crimea and Donbas?  That's 1 of his 2 stated goals, but I doubt that's enough.  Maybe agreeing also to the probably soon captured land bridge between the two.  Insist on a UN supervised allowed relocation of ethic Ukranians that want out of territory transferring to Russia.

It would be terrible for many and I hate giving the thug any type of win, but they have nukes.  Lots of them.  We had to make similar awful compromises to end WW2 and end or scale back other conflicts.

Edited February 28, 2022 by clapclapclap

[BachelorTrek 2,967]

1 minute ago, BabaYaga said:

Toys.  Expensive toys. 

[Immaculate Vibes 114]

12 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

It's a fair question. 

The problem is, what's your alternative? If Putin is willing to take over Ukraine, and the world does nothing for fear of nuclear utilization, what else does the world allow? It's not like he wasn't warned. He just didn't believe the Western world would follow through. He thought it would be more milquetoast in word only sanctions, and the usual suspects would protect their flow of Russian money and resources. You could hear him basically say it in his public addresses to his leadership councils and oligarchs. 

Part of the problem isn't that the West pushed back on his invasion of Ukraine. The problem is they weren't more serious when he took Crimea and carved out the Donbas. If they had frozen Russia out of the market back then and moved in unison to support Ukraine at that point, we wouldn't be in this situation. Better to carve a line in the sand at this juncture rather than kick the can down the road for Putin or whoever else has similar leverage in the future. 

 

14 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

It's a fair question. 

The problem is, what's your alternative? If Putin is willing to take over Ukraine, and the world does nothing for fear of nuclear utilization, what else does the world allow? It's not like he wasn't warned. He just didn't believe the Western world would follow through. He thought it would be more milquetoast in word only sanctions, and the usual suspects would protect their flow of Russian money and resources. You could hear him basically say it in his public addresses to his leadership councils and oligarchs. 

Part of the problem isn't that the West pushed back on his invasion of Ukraine. The problem is they weren't more serious when he took Crimea and carved out the Donbas. If they had frozen Russia out of the market back then and moved in unison to support Ukraine at that point, we wouldn't be in this situation. Better to carve a line in the sand at this juncture rather than kick the can down the road for Putin or whoever else has similar leverage in the future. 

Fair points made. But I would say that we’ve seen that Russia is not as formidable as expected by most. And by the time we decided to kick some Russian banks off swift and seized their overseas FX reserves that it was clear that they aren’t some budding Blitzkrieg about to happen. But we decided to really teabag Putin and basically wreck his country over it and we’ll see what he comes up with? That’s how we end up with 50/50 risk of nuke deployment for minimal geopolitical gain. It’s dumb. 

[MillerEP 30,448]

 

 

 

 

 

[Born to Run 6,569]

Yes questioning steps we’re taking in a conflict that doesn’t directly affect us is traitorous. The conditioning has worked well on you. 

Nah just fuck you in general regardless of this conflict, you can get fucked. "conditioning" that's rich. Fuck you.

[Bevo 13,570]

3 minutes ago, Lobo said:

Yeah, their announcement reminded me of Ted & Elaine in "Airplane!" on the beach.

Belarus Paratrooper to his girlfriend, "My orders came through.  My squad takes off tomorrow, we're attacking their storage depots in Kiev at 1800hrs.  We're coming in from the North, below their radar."

Girlfriend, "When will you be back?"

Belarus Paratrooper, "I can't tell you that.  It's classified." 

I had to look it up because it was Kiev when I lived in eastern europe. Kiev though is the Russian pronunciation. Kyiv is the Ukranian pronunciation.

[RDCanecutter 26,403]

1 minute ago, InkaUtexas said:

Fuck this other autocrat. I wonder what deal he has cut with Putin. 

 

Putin picked up a good delivery gold bar off the ground and said to Bolsonaro "You just dropped this. It must be yours, it's not mine."

Soon there'll be a Brazilian passport for João dos Putin arriving in the mail.

[BachelorTrek 2,967]

8 minutes ago, J.R. said:

Does anyone have any good recent podcasts on this topic to recommend 

There's live commentary streams as the news comes in on YT/Twitch/etc. -- is that what you want?

[dimyh 1,874]

So how would tactical nukes be used? Is Putin threatening to flatten Kyiv? Wouldn't there still be massive radiation risk especially right next to the river?

[SmokeyTheBear 5,562]

6 minutes ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

So we find someone to give Putin a Sicilian Necktie. Then what? I assume we don't want Lavrov or Medvedev in power, as they were Putin acolytes. Who from the military that would be palatable to the west could take and hold power long enough for elections and a Russian return to the civilized world? The Defense Minister that got sacked? If he's still alive...

The west isn't the only player on the board. You have to know China is waiting to control their neighbor that has a large energy supply. 

[BamaATL 16,593]

1 minute ago, RDCanecutter said:

Putin picked up a good delivery gold bar off the ground and said to Bolsonaro "You just dropped this. It must be yours, it's not mine."

Soon there'll be a Brazilian passport for João dos Putin arriving in the mail.

Wonder if the Mossad would be interested in finding Joao dos Putin in Brazil.  I seem to remember them having some success with that in past in South America

[Chewbacca 7,768]

I’m in DC. So if it comes to this, I’ll be glowing ash. Pour one out for me. 

I'm 60 miles north of Cheyenne Mountain. Same, same

[GabrielsHorn 2,183]

 

[TwiceHorn 31,440]

6 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

I’m not CR-ing this, but that’s literally how it happens in this country. There’s been talk over the years that when Nixon was drinking or the last two weeks of Trump’s presidency there were some informal conversations between the secretary of defense and the chiefs of staff at the pentagon that they would consult, but technically speaking, the President can end all life on earth entirely by himself.

It is true that no one has the authority to countermand the President's orders, but there are plenty of opportunities for calmer heads to prevail upon the President.  And for heroic insubordination. https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF10521

[BachelorTrek 2,967]

Just now, BamaATL said:

Wonder if the Mossad would be interested in finding Joao dos Putin in Brazil.  I seem to remember them having some success with that in past in South America

Wonder if Mossad doesn't already have a team in Moscow now.

[Dahobbs 17,529]

6 minutes ago, Lobo said:

Holy shit.  That awkward moment when you and your side are so hated, that the head of the only nation to have been attacked by nuclear weapons announces to the world, "You know what?  We'll take a few warheads to point at Russia.  How bad can it be to have these things around again?"  

Pretty sure Japan wants to point them at China.