Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[InkaUtexas 26963]

2 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

If Russian troops can't even seem to coordinate with one another, not sure how well Belarus will be able to coordinate with them.

Yep, agree. They could embed Russian "advisors" into units, but damn this smells like desperation. 

Fuck Russia and Belarus 

[Blotto 24044]

7 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Yeah, about that area.  You're fucked, and not in the good way.

https://dshs.texas.gov/radiation/emergency-preparedness/pantex.aspx

 

damn, sounds like that area will be getting pounded like.....well, you know. 

[Hermanator 7693]

If America were to get nuked you want to be in the blast zone and get taken out immediately. You don't want to die from dehydration and radioactive fallout. 

[atomheartbevo 90676]

28 minutes ago, pops said:

I think one thing that can't be underestimated is the level of training given the Ukrainian army in the last 8 years. In 2014 they were little more than an armed militia. Now they fuck. 

Just imagine a shit-ton of those Maidan protestors from 2013/2014 being given training and equipment, and you know a lot of them are in the territorial defense forces.

[MNLonghornFUKM 8985]

How the fuck is Russia going to get a nuke over American airspace??

Ok western Alaska might be on alert

[atomheartbevo 90676]

2 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Yep, agree. They could embed Russian "advisors" into units, but damn this smells like desperation. 

Fuck Russia and Belarus 

Any advisors worth a damn should already be deployed in Ukraine and trying to keep the Russians' shit together.

[Longhornlove 5217]

3 minutes ago, Hermanator said:

But ask yourself who are those 4 million followers? And wouldn't a better thing be to tweet from an official US govt account if everyone is supposed to know it's coming from the administration anyway? You'd get a bigger cross section of the American people reached than by using a man who is very polarizing and had very inflammatory political comments just earlier this month. 

You all are assuming this to be fact but it doesn't make sense. 

It actually makes good sense from an intelligence perspective. The Russian intelligence without question monitors this type of traffic on social media from a Vice Chairman of the intel committee. The things he has tweeted was intended to be seen by a specific audience.

[The Dog 44865]

2 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Yep, agree. They could embed Russian "advisors" into units, but damn this smells like desperation. 

Fuck Russia and Belarus 

They're so fucked up they might start shooting at each other by accident.

[dcar00 14995]

this thing still has 5-7 more days to go before we can determine if supply lines have been cut off.  I hope the Ukes can hold the fort.

[Hairy Biped 604]

1 minute ago, atomheartbevo said:

Who his followers are doesn't matter, because every time Rubio sends out a tweet, a shitload of people in the media (of all political persuasions), a shitload of analysts, and a lot of others following the Ukraine stuff quickly retweet it out all over the place, so that people who are not his followers (or even American) are seeing it.

Rubio and the people giving him the info to tweet out know it's reaching all over the place.

It's actually one of the more clever things the US intel community is doing.  We'll probably never hear the full story, but it's been a great psyops strategy.

It also shows a posture of us being together on this issue too.  The world has seen so much division from our politics the past several years.  It's a pretty big deal that both sides are projecting the same interests to the world.  

[InkaUtexas 26963]

1 minute ago, The Dog said:

They're so fucked up they might start shooting at each other by accident.

We can hope. 

[The Dog 44865]

The Russians should have stopped what they were doing the very second those dudes on the tiny island said "go fuck yourself" knowing full well they were about to get killed. That should have told them the Ukrainians were ready to rumble and this was going to be a meat grinder.

But the dumbasses Leeroy'd it anyway and are now getting clobbered. idiots.

[BamaATL 16593]

1 minute ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

How the fuck is Russia going to get a nuke over American airspace??

Ok western Alaska might be on alert

Well, thank god we have secret agent Ferdinand Magellan on the case.

[atomheartbevo 90676]

8 minutes ago, ShaggyBevo RIP said:

This far in without taking out Surly means RU can't.

I would think official Russian hackers would be going nonstop on trying to help with Kyiv and finding Zelenskyy, and preventing Russian troops from giving away shit, and trying to take down Ukrainian comms in general.

Because trying to fuck with and American power grid while your people are losing badly in the field seems like a serious waste of resources.

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3873]

5 hours ago, immamac said:

What theoretically happens if Putin launches a nuclear weapon and it doesn’t detonate or is intercepted? Does that mean everyone goes in on Russia? 

A world shaped by 75 years of fear of the Red menace watching RU be reduced to a paper tiger, albeit with nukes, in 72 hours is a complete game changer.

[atomheartbevo 90676]

6 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

 Further, your sex life has nothing to do with anyone else's. 

Know how I know you're new to Surly?  It ain't the little icon on your avatar.

[InkaUtexas 26963]

1 minute ago, dcar00 said:

this thing still has 5-7 more days to go before we can determine if supply lines have been cut off.  I hope the Ukes can hold the fort.

if they can hold Kyiv for 3-4 days there is no way Russia takes all the country. I think we see 1 or 2 good pushes by the Ruskies and then they say fuck it, lets level these places. Sarajevo/Grozny Doctrine 2.0

[The Dog 44865]

1 minute ago, dcar00 said:

this thing still has 5-7 more days to go before we can determine if supply lines have been cut off.  I hope the Ukes can hold the fort.

they're already in trouble. The Ukrainians' MO has been to let the armor pass then blow up the support columns. They are running out of gas and food.

[F250 29205]

2 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

How the fuck is Russia going to get a nuke over American airspace??

Ok western Alaska might be on alert

[MillerEP 30907]

[atomheartbevo 90676]

3 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

this thing still has 5-7 more days to go before we can determine if supply lines have been cut off.  I hope the Ukes can hold the fort.

Supply line have been cut if they are running out of fuel*, plus the destroyed convoys we see point to a break in somebody's supply line, whether it's a battalion or regiment, hard to say, but every fucked up convoy represents a break of some kind.

* Some Russians maybe sabotaging their own vehicles and bailing.

[InkaUtexas 26963]

1 minute ago, MillerEP said:

 

Would have been nice footage for a drone strike. 

 

[Nicole44 22326]

Twitter feed has blown up so I apologize if it takes some time to hunt down a link but Israel has sent “people” and is sending people. The kind you don’t want showing up on your doorstep. Period. Sayeret Matkal. I shit you not. 

[Hermanator 7693]

5 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

How the fuck is Russia going to get a nuke over American airspace??

Ok western Alaska might be on alert

Overload American defense system launches with more ICBMs and Sub launched missiles than can be handled. As far as we know they're fully capable of nuking us to shit if they want to. Of course we could do the same to them. And why not include China if you're doing it anyway just for fun. 

[dcar00 14995]

2 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

if they can hold Kyiv for 3-4 days there is no way Russia takes all the country. I think we see 1 or 2 good pushes by the Ruskies and then they say fuck it, lets level these places. Sarajevo/Grozny Doctrine 2.0

I think he's only trying to take half.  Kiev to Odessa.  IMO, He don't give a shit about the western half really, though he is having some shit go down in Lviv.

[atomheartbevo 90676]

SIAP, but interesting.  Also lots of talk of pensions and paychecks being worthless potentially getting folks in the streets, but I don't understand Russian currency and their market/banks. I could see old people stirring a lot of shit up.

 

[InkaUtexas 26963]

Just now, dcar00 said:

I think he's only trying to take half.  Kiev to Odessa.  IMO, He don't give a shit about the western half really, though he is having some shit go down in Lviv.

Yep, been saying that since all this shit started. he wants to move up to the river and divide the country. Fuck it, Go Ukraine, kick their asses back to Siberia. 

[PTINS 3530]

1 hour ago, Nicole44 said:

does anyone have a theory on how the Middle East will react to the whole world turning on Russia? I read about Saudi Arabia...   This has been scary as hell but I also have hope for the first time. 

Russia is ~ top 3 in oil & gas production, and they lost most of their buyers - Advantage Middle East 

Putin pushed the Green Movement to riding in the back of the bus on the back bumper - Advantage Middle East

EU will replace Russian gas w/ LNG - Qatar only ME country with large LNG export capacity - DIsadvantage Middle East

US Shale Development will get unleashed - DIsadvantage Middle East (US politically advantaged over ME)

Big question is how much Russian O&G production stays on line. Sanctions will kill maintenance and production will fall. Two sets of buyers, No Sanctions (China, et al) and Sanctions (US, EU, Far East). Oil is zero sum game, China can buy most of Russian oil and existing China purchases go to prior buyers of Russian oil. I expect Russian Gas exports will decrease and be replaced with new production from US, SE Asia, Australia & Qatar. Too much Russian Oil ($Billion/day) for it not to be produced, >> lying, cheating & corruPUTIoN.  

Will US develop max gas production to support EU, or will US politics favor cheaper gas for US and much more expensive gas for Europe? Will NE US allow more pipelines or just bitch and complain like always? 

This will be the biggest geo-political event since WWII, and most of America will be Ukraine? What? Huh?  

[dcar00 14995]

2 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Supply line have been cut if they are running out of fuel*, plus the destroyed convoys we see point to a break in somebody's supply line, whether it's a battalion or regiment, hard to say, but every fucked up convoy represents a break of some kind.

* Some Russians maybe sabotaging their own vehicles and bailing.

I'm just not sure we have enough true info to say they have been cut for good.  I'm a little leery of the stuff we are seeing on twitter.  not saying things aren't going well just not convinced yet.  the Ukes are badasses though.

[atomheartbevo 90676]

1 minute ago, dcar00 said:

I think he's only trying to take half.  Kiev to Odessa.  IMO, He don't give a shit about the western half really, though he is having some shit go down in Lviv.

Just now, InkaUtexas said:

Yep, been saying that since all this shit started. he wants to move up to the river and divide the country. Fuck it, Go Ukraine, kick their asses back to Siberia. 

Yep, if he can link up and down the river, the Russians probably have a brown water navy they can run up and down it to help keep the Ukrainians on the western side off their backs, kind of similar to what we were doing in Vietnam.

[Mole 4344]

1 hour ago, Buzzrock said:

Megadeth has some good songs about this shit. I’m gonna go listen to some Megadeth.

I’ve been thinking about an end of the world music thread. It’d be a lot of metal and a lot of 80s music, but also stuff like the Götterdämmerung Immolation Scene, and Messiaen’s Quartet for the End of Time. If I get some down time before we all start melting and glowing, I might go start it.

[dcar00 14995]

8 minutes ago, The Dog said:

they're already in trouble. The Ukrainians' MO has been to let the armor pass then blow up the support columns. They are running out of gas and food.

from your keyboard to God's ears my man.

[InkaUtexas 26963]

1 minute ago, atomheartbevo said:

Yep, if he can link up and down the river, the Russians probably have a brown water navy they can run up and down it to help keep the Ukrainians on the western side off their backs, kind of similar to what we were doing in Vietnam.

well those boats would be great Javelin targets. 

[Nicole44 22326]

3 minutes ago, PTINS said:

Russia is ~ top 3 in oil & gas production, and they lost most of their buyers - Advantage Middle East 

Putin pushed the Green Movement to riding in the back of the bus on the back bumper - Advantage Middle East

EU will replace Russian gas w/ LNG - Qatar only ME country with large LNG export capacity - DIsadvantage Middle East

US Shale Development will get unleashed - DIsadvantage Middle East (US politically advantaged over ME)

Big question is how much Russian O&G production stays on line. Sanctions will kill maintenance and production will fall. Two sets of buyers, No Sanctions (China, et al) and Sanctions (US, EU, Far East). Oil is zero sum game, China can buy most of Russian oil and existing China purchases go to prior buyers of Russian oil. I expect Russian Gas exports will decrease and be replaced with new production from US, SE Asia, Australia & Qatar. Too much Russian Oil ($Billion/day) for it not to be produced, >> lying, cheating & corruPUTIoN.  

Will US develop max gas production to support EU, or will US politics favor cheaper gas for US and much more expensive gas for Europe? Will NE US allow more pipelines or just bitch and complain like always? 

This will be the biggest geo-political event since WWII, and most of America will be Ukraine? What? Huh?  

Damn! That was a fabulous post and thanks for the intel! Sometimes rep is just not enough. 

[MNLonghornFUKM 8985]

Overload American defense system launches with more ICBMs and Sub launched missiles than can be handled. As far as we know they're fully capable of nuking us to shit if they want to. Of course we could do the same to them. And why not include China if you're doing it anyway just for fun. 

Oh that’s comforting.

[Handcruser 2816]

Any updates on how they fared during the night? It’s 8am there now.

[InkaUtexas 26963]

They survived to fight another day. 

[atomheartbevo 90676]

4 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

I'm just not sure we have enough true info to say they have been cut for good.  I'm a little leery of the stuff we are seeing on twitter.  not saying things aren't going well just not convinced yet.  the Ukes are badasses though.

The fact that they are not where they should have been on paper, and the fact that they have multiple groups fighting in multiple parts of Ukraine that have not yet linked up would create a strain or at least an imbalance in their supplies.

Even if we had not seen anything on social media about lost convoys, every one of those red blobs on the map basically means individual supply lines of some sorts, and they need those red blogs to merge together so they can make up any losses and improve their logistics/efficiency.

For instance, they may lose a convoy of fuel in Area A and start getting low while still doing well in say ammo, while in Area B they have plenty of fuel but are running low on ammo.  Because those areas are spread apart, they can't easily help each other out unless they drive back into Russia/Belarus and then go around to the other red blog, or they try to go into the areas between the red blobs on the map that might as well be marked "There be dragons here".

I'm oversimplifying, and probably not the best analogy, but if they could better link up the areas they've taken, they would be in much better condition supply line-wise.

[Hermanator 7693]

1 minute ago, Handcruser said:

Any updates on how they fared during the night? It’s 8am there now.

Didn't hear of any Belarus air drop, guess that was BS. Russia seems to be losing some steam. 

[InkaUtexas 26963]

Damn..... 

 

[ChiTownDoc 21348]

32 minutes ago, GabrielsHorn said:

 

Yeah, are we just gonna ignore the fact that guy looks like he’s a hostage?

[Nicole44 22326]

Just now, Handcruser said:

Any updates on how they fared during the night? It’s 8am there now.

They are still standing! Kyiv. But Russian army of mother fucking tanks is advancing as we speak. Explosions now being heard. Zelenskyy is still alive and tweeting and taking calls from leaders all over the world. I wish we could use aircraft and bomb those tanks before they can do some real damage. I can’t sleep. I’m addicted to this thread. 
 

also I owe surly a bunch. That’s how I met my boyfriend. One of his college buddies from UT posts here and I met him and that poster introduced me to him. Surly is fully and completely the best site on the planet. Surly got me the sex! Yep yep! 

[MillerEP 30907]

[ChiTownDoc 21348]

24 minutes ago, The Dog said:

Yeah I was going to respond to this as the Panhandle is one of the places you do NOT want to be should the shit hit the fan. I'm keeping my ass in Austin.

Yeah, I was born out there.  Regardless of whether or not shit is hitting the fan, you don’t wanna be out there.  
Although, Nicole is driving a hard bargain…might be time for some of us to show up and return the favor.  

[dcar00 14995]

40 minutes ago, Nicole44 said:

.

3. If nukes happen I will carpet bomb this thread with all my nudes so y’all can enjoy them for a brief moment before you incinerate. And I won’t have to worry about any criticism of nekkid Nicole. 
 

so we're rooting for nukes? 

[atomheartbevo 90676]

4 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Damn..... 

This is what's coming to Kyiv soon.

On a lighter note, Texas has a blue shed.

Ukraine has a green...apartment entrance?

 

[Nicole44 22326]

Damnit! Big explosions targeted inside Kyiv. Fuck fuck fuck! All over the 5 channels I am flipping through. Damnit!!!!! Hide Zelenskyy right fucking now! 

[InkaUtexas 26963]

Just now, atomheartbevo said:

This is what's coming to Kyiv soon.

On a lighter note, Texas has a blue shed.

Ukraine has a green...apartment entrance?

 

That is what I think they will do. Saw it first hand in Sarajevo. Serbs did not try to take the city, just blow the shit out of it and make them surrender. Did not work. Don't think it will this time. 

[tx 3 putt 78755]

so they just hit a random neighborhood ?

[atomheartbevo 90676]

2 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

 

Or they deliberately sabotaged their vehicle and surrendered as soon as they could, while not technically surrendering?