Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[956 Worldwide 35598]

1 hour ago, Helobious said:

I mean that wasn’t an invasion, that was Texas breaking away from what was already mexico.

Its a shitty situation to be in. Ukraine can’t keep this up. I imagine all their military shit will be confiscated, but Russia doesn’t have the manpower to search every civilian household for weapons or things like that. If I was ukraine I’d surrender and get ready to carry out insurgency & guerilla warfare. Years of that + the sanctions will force russia out eventually you would think. Plus that won’t get your cities leveled.

Rules of war and international tolerance are different for states vs. insurgences. Mostly important for the type of unified support Ukraine needs.  It’s important for a free government to keep fighting even if it moves to exile like the Poles or Czechs or French in World War II. 

[956 Worldwide 35598]

6 hours ago, ChiTownDoc said:

He's seen a lot worse, lol

Anyways, mea culpa...here's the reality from someone who is miles ahead of dad or anyone on here.  Foreign MIGs by Ukraine pilots possible.  F-16, not without training.  Sounds like at least few weeks.  Getting a donated F16 to be flown by a non NATO pilot, possible but not easy.  And wouldn't get NATO in hot water presumably being that planes are already being donated.  Although here's the big catch - article expert says even another country that has an F-16 would need permission to lend it to Ukraine.  I'd have never guessed that.  Here's the juice: https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2022/02/can-ukraine-really-use-donated-fighter-jets-depends/362505/

Yeah, when we sell advanced systems we do it government to government and part of the deal is that they can’t be sold or transferred without our permission. You can’t buy our stuff then write “bad credit- no credit-stop in” with shoe polish on the window.

I ran down what is realistic earlier in the thread— TL;DR  hopefully they can get some of the Polish birds.  Bulgaria and Slovakia already said no.  The Poles have 28 MiG-29s but as I mentioned— they would not all be in flying order, those aircraft are down for maintenance a lot.  Half of those would be incredible. I did read on Politico that some Ukrainian pilots are already in Poland. 
 

It’s important to stop in this information environment and verify what is happening as even good official sources make mistakes. 

[Shady Ray 1633]

Really awkward work call right now. Long story short, we have had a need for additional Russian lawyers on the transactional side of the Legal Department given the volume of business we do over there, so we hired three new attorneys over there during the last few weeks. Standard protocol in Germany is that people start employment on first day of the month, and offers are typically made 2-3 months before start dates due to longer notice periods in Europe. So all of these were hired late last year/early this year, starting today. 
 

Well, in the department-wide call that we have on the first Tuesday per month, all three introduced themselves. That in and of itself was a bit awkward, given the 8 Million KG Elephant in the room of “Y'all even gonna be needed at this stage”…until the below email came in. Literally while the third one was introducing herself...you could see all the heads on the MS Teams call checking emails while the call was going on and their slight reactions:

 

Subject: Internal Memo: Supply of Goods to Russia Stopped

Liebe Mitarbeiterinnen und Mitarbeiter,
 

We will inform all customers today that due to the war in Ukraine and the associated sanctions against Russia, COMPANY has decided to stop all supply of goods to Russia. All shipments have been stopped with immediate effect and production planning has been adjusted accordingly.
 
We understand this decision will create significant challenges for our customers, however, given the current environment, we consider this as the appropriate decision to take. We hope that the conflict will be resolved soon, so that we can re-evaluate the situation and possibly re-initiate deliveries.
 
In addition, we would like to let you know that we are considering ways to help people who are suffering from the war. We will reach out to relief organizations to find out how we can help and support in this difficult situation.
 
On behalf of the Executive Board
/ Signed CEO
 

Immediately my individual chat messaging service lit up with variations of, “Hope these guys have euro contracts” (which, of course, they don't) or “Wonder what severance for 90 minutes of employment looks like?”
 

Still on the call. Fucking brutal.

Edited March 1, 2022 by Shady Ray

[Shady Ray 1633]

 

 

[FartingMonk 3625]

There is no way we can let this go on for another 48 hours right?

[SL Xpress 7609]

6 minutes ago, FartingMonk said:

There is no way we can let this go on for another 48 hours right?

What do you mean? This thread?

[Shady Ray 1633]

17 minutes ago, FartingMonk said:

There is no way we can let this go on for another 48 hours right?

Man, this is where I think we are completely in uncharted territory. 
 

As inspiring as the Ukrainians have been so far, they can't hold out forever. And what we are seeing unfold on the ground now is shaping up to be a situation where the oft-repeated refrain of "never again will we stand by and watch wholesale slaughter occur on European soil" will be put to the test. And I think everyone knows that if we step in in any meaningful way, the conflict immediately expands to the worst possible possibilities.

 

And I don't want to sound cynical, because all life is worth protecting, but prior to the last five days I don't think there would have even been the slightest inclination to offer anything more than concerned words re Russian atrocities over there in much of Western Europe. But the Ukrainian actions have been so emotionally inspiring, and their PR demonstrating their resolve and their humanity is fucking onnnnnn point, that I think we are going to see populations in certain corners seriously start to push leaders towards stepping in. And that is an understandable position...we are humans living in the free world, and we are influenced by the brutality that we see. And it is in our nature to want to stop it. But that good and wholesome desire very well kick off something really, really terrible.

 



I can speak for many in Germany when I say that the “other-ization” of Ukrainians that was in place a mere week ago re the Ukrainians has washed away, and they are genuinely respected here now for what they have shown. And there is emotional investment in their safety and success. And with that investment comes willingness to accept steps that could kick off the big one.

 

It truly is a really dangerous moment.

[FartingMonk 3625]

14 minutes ago, Shady Ray said:

Man, this is where I think we are completely in uncharted territory. 
 

As inspiring as the Ukrainians have been so far, they can't hold out forever. And what we are seeing unfold on the ground now is shaping up to be a situation where the oft-repeated refrain of "never again will we stand by and watch wholesale slaughter occur on European soil" will be put to the test. And I think everyone knows that if we step in in any meaningful way, the conflict immediately expands to the worst possible possibilities.

 

And I don't want to sound cynical, because all life is worth protecting, but prior to the last five days I don't think there would have even been the slightest inclination to offer anything more than concerned words re Russian atrocities over there in much of Western Europe. But the Ukrainian actions have been so emotionally inspiring, and their PR demonstrating their resolve and their humanity is fucking onnnnnn point, that I think we are going to see populations in certain corners seriously start to push leaders towards stepping in. And that is an understandable position...we are humans living in the free world, and we are influenced by the brutality that we see. And it is in our nature to want to stop it. But that good and wholesome desire very well kick off something really, really terrible.

 



I can speak for many in Germany when I say that the “other-ization” of Ukrainians that was in place a mere week ago re the Ukrainians has washed away, and they are genuinely respected here now for what they have shown. And there is emotional investment in their safety and success. And with that investment comes willingness to accept steps that could kick off the big one.

 

It truly is a really dangerous moment.

I feel like we are really past the point of brinkmanship.  There is no resolution except with the death of Putin.

[SL Xpress 7609]

I do not get this. We’re going to watch these cities get shelled. We’re going to watch thousands die. At most there will be arms and humanitarian aid sent across the border for as long as possible. Pockets of resistance will be annihilated unless they surrender. Especially the bulk of Ukrainian forces in the east along the line of control.

At some point Russia will announce their new Ukraine government. 

The only hope for Ukraine is Putin being killed. 

There’s not going to be an active intervention in Ukraine. It doesn’t matter how bad it gets. The West needs to make sure it lets Putin know if he tries this with the Baltic States, the West is willing to risk the end of the world over it. Beyond that, help the Ukrainians as much as possible without sending active duty service people over there, whether on the ground or in the air. 
 

People expecting something different are going to be emotionally crushed. Heck, I’m thrilled they’ve done as much as they have. I hope they tighten the screws economically even more, and more importantly, sustain it. I wish they’d done this in 2014 when this really started. 
 

 

[SL Xpress 7609]

4 minutes ago, FartingMonk said:

I feel like we are really past the point of brinkmanship.  There is no resolution except with the death of Putin.

That I can agree with wholeheartedly. But I’ve felt that way since the beginning. 

[Shady Ray 1633]

1 minute ago, FartingMonk said:

I feel like we are really past the point of brinkmanship.  There is no resolution except with the death of Putin.

That's my thought, as well.

 

And then that brings a very important issue up re China (and sincere apologies if this has already been hashed out over the last couple of days...it's been impossible to keep up with everything on this board for me since yesterday morning so I have skipped ahead to some degree...so if I am completely re-hashing shit just tell me to fuck off and catch back up).

 

If Putin were to go via death and a similar-minded, but less outwardly objectionable replacement was in the cards, that's one thing. But if Beijing feels like the conditions are right for not only a Putin regime change, but also a directional change towards the West a la Yeltsin, I don't think they could sit by and let that happen. This isn't the early 90s. Russia's cooperative stance vis a vis China is way too important to China's goals, and having a western-friendly or neutral Russia on its border would be a disaster for them. Such a repositioning would also cause them significant problems wrt their south china sea positiion, as it would truly allow for a more focused US in that region.

 

In short, what goes on Moscow right now is a really delicate balance for China. They can't be seen as indifferent, but they also can't allow anything from the resulting fallout to get too sideways wrt their goals.

[FartingMonk 3625]

9 minutes ago, Shady Ray said:

That's my thought, as well.

 

And then that brings a very important issue up re China (and sincere apologies if this has already been hashed out over the last couple of days...it's been impossible to keep up with everything on this board for me since yesterday morning so I have skipped ahead to some degree...so if I am completely re-hashing shit just tell me to fuck off and catch back up).

 

If Putin were to go via death and a similar-minded, but less outwardly objectionable replacement was in the cards, that's one thing. But if Beijing feels like the conditions are right for not only a Putin regime change, but also a directional change towards the West a la Yeltsin, I don't think they could sit by and let that happen. This isn't the early 90s. Russia's cooperative stance vis a vis China is way too important to China's goals, and having a western-friendly or neutral Russia on its border would be a disaster for them. Such a repositioning would also cause them significant problems wrt their south china sea positiion, as it would truly allow for a more focused US in that region.

 

In short, what goes on Moscow right now is a really delicate balance for China. They can't be seen as indifferent, but they also can't allow anything from the resulting fallout to get too sideways wrt their goals.

After this everything gets reshaped.  

[Shady Ray 1633]

1 minute ago, FartingMonk said:

After this everything gets reshaped.  

Absolutely. 

 

 

[SL Xpress 7609]

6 minutes ago, Shady Ray said:

That's my thought, as well.

 

And then that brings a very important issue up re China (and sincere apologies if this has already been hashed out over the last couple of days...it's been impossible to keep up with everything on this board for me since yesterday morning so I have skipped ahead to some degree...so if I am completely re-hashing shit just tell me to fuck off and catch back up).

 

If Putin were to go via death and a similar-minded, but less outwardly objectionable replacement was in the cards, that's one thing. But if Beijing feels like the conditions are right for not only a Putin regime change, but also a directional change towards the West a la Yeltsin, I don't think they could sit by and let that happen. This isn't the early 90s. Russia's cooperative stance vis a vis China is way too important to China's goals, and having a western-friendly or neutral Russia on its border would be a disaster for them. Such a repositioning would also cause them significant problems wrt their south china sea positiion, as it would truly allow for a more focused US in that region.

 

In short, what goes on Moscow right now is a really delicate balance for China. They can't be seen as indifferent, but they also can't allow anything from the resulting fallout to get too sideways wrt their goals.

First let’s see if Putin dies in a reasonable amount of time. I’m not convinced that’s about to happen. I hope for it, but that’s it. 
 

Next, is it some kind of military coup? From the secret services? Or oligarchy backed? Who manages to take the reigns of power? It’s almost certainly going to continue as a kleptocracy. I don’t see it becoming more democratic, at least not immediately. Also, successions under authoritarian rule are messy. Lots of executions and jailings as whoever wins consolidates power. 
 

I don’t see how China is going to get intimately involved. They’ll be in a good place regardless of who takes power. It’s not like a truly representative government would emerge. I don’t see it as the red alert event for Beijing you seem to. 

[Hefeweizen 5445]

I don't see any off ramp here at all.  Russia is committed - Putin isn't going to stop.  Economic collapse will happen (they can't keep banks and stock market closed forever in Russia) but I don't think it's soon enough.  The oligarchs are the only ones who can make the change at the top.  Russian military probably isn't going to mutiny or desert en masse; although there is some chance of this.

No way anyone intervenes unless Russia hits outside Ukraine's borders.  

This is going to be a bloody two weeks and then the insurgency will go on for a while. 

[Shady Ray 1633]

12 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

First let’s see if Putin dies in a reasonable amount of time. I’m not convinced that’s about to happen. I hope for it, but that’s it. 
 

Next, is it some kind of military coup? From the secret services? Or oligarchy backed? Who manages to take the reigns of power? It’s almost certainly going to continue as a kleptocracy. I don’t see it becoming more democratic, at least not immediately. Also, successions under authoritarian rule are messy. Lots of executions and jailings as whoever wins consolidates power. 
 

I don’t see how China is going to get intimately involved. They’ll be in a good place regardless of who takes power. It’s not like a truly representative government would emerge. I don’t see it as the red alert event for Beijing you seem to. 

Yes. It is completely unreasonable to think that after decades of authoritarian rule that a sudden and unexpected change in Russian government would end up in a spot where a new leader allowed the West significant access and influence within its markets.

 

And no one is saying they are going to get intimately involved, but they are clearly able to extend significant lifelines to a Russia that would collapse otherwise. And that's my point. They will try to influence a wobbly Russian government in a significant way.

 

Clearly there are many different ways that a succession in Russia could go. Most of them not leading to increased degree of democratic behavior. Doesn't change the fact that Russian leadership succession isn't incredibly critical for them.

Edited March 1, 2022 by Shady Ray

[Bateshorn 9991]

2 minutes ago, Hefeweizen said:

I don't see any off ramp here at all.  Russia is committed - Putin isn't going to stop.  Economic collapse will happen (they can't keep banks and stock market closed forever in Russia) but I don't think it's soon enough.  The oligarchs are the only ones who can make the change at the top.  Russian military probably isn't going to mutiny or desert en masse; although there is some chance of this.

No way anyone intervenes unless Russia hits outside Ukraine's borders.  

This is going to be a bloody two weeks and then the insurgency will go on for a while. 

Yeah.  I know the late night Surl crew gets some whiskey in its system and has dreams of A-10s mowing down Russian armor and no fly zones, but that ain’t gonna happen. 
 

The Russians are gradually moving to just slaughtering the Ukrainians.  It’s time to start thinking about what the new Cold War looks like, because we are about to have an active insurgence bordering 3 NATO states (including Poland who I’m sure is itching to lock horns with the Russians).

[Homercles 10206]

8 hours ago, 4doorsMoreWhores said:

And you know of this person through the internet, you say? I'm on board!

I mean you can read it yourself.  Your politics would probably fit in better over there anyways and they have quite the Covid thread:

 

https://www.flyingsquadron.com/forums/topic/23584-russian-ukraine-shenanigans/?do=findComment&comment=508601

[Shady Ray 1633]

Gerhard Schröder loses all employees in Bundestag office

Former Chancellor Gerhard Schröder (77) has lost all employees in his Bundestag office. "I can confirm that the four employees in the office have asked to work in other functions again," says Albrecht Funk from the office on request. All are formally employed by the Chancellery and are now employed elsewhere. First, "The Pioneer" had reported.

...

Despite corresponding requests, Schröder also refuses the SPD leadership to hand over his posts with Russian energy companies. At the end of January, he accused Ukraine of saber rattling. Literally, he said in his podcast "The Agenda": "I very much hope that saber rattling in Ukraine will finally be stopped." On Thursday, he had called on the government in Moscow via LinkedIn to end the war in Ukraine as soon as possible. However, there was no mention of personal consequences.

...

Last year, 407,000 euros flowed out of the state treasury for personnel expenses in Schröder's office. This is evident from a response from the Chancellery to a request from the left-wing group, which was first reported by the Handelsblatt. The expenses concern the payment of the employees in Schröder's office.

https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article237215561/Gerhard-Schroeder-Fehlende-Distanzierung-zu-Putin-Mitarbeiter-kuendigen.html

[StruggleBus 3922]

Anyone claiming that we should get involved is an idiot. Period. 

[statsman 5693]

Good Gerard Baker podcast with Niall Ferguson:

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/wsj-opinion-free-expression/id1609730284

[Shady Ray 1633]

7 minutes ago, StruggleBus said:

Anyone claiming that we should get involved is an idiot. Period. 

Exactly. And any politician saying so should be shamed. The number of talking heads advocating no-fly zones and other forms of direct intervention has been really alarming over the last two days. And that gets certain understandable emotions going in people who are searching for us to "do something"...which is truly an understandable sentiment. But leaders need to be leaders, which fortunately by and large most have been so far, as least as far as I can tell.

 

But for some, the prioritization of Twitter likes over actual cause-and-effect is simply stunning. 

Edited March 1, 2022 by Shady Ray

[CHEF DIESEL 126]

Commie Austinite longhair boomer fighting with the Russians interviewed in the link

https://funker530.com/video/the-weird-texan-guy-embedded-with-russian-soldiers-in-ukraine/

 

[Hefeweizen 5445]

1 minute ago, CHEF DIESEL said:

Commie Austinite longhair boomer fighting with the Russians interviewed in the link

https://funker530.com/video/the-weird-texan-guy-embedded-with-russian-soldiers-in-ukraine/

 

Fuck that guy.  Put him on the end of a howitzer British style.

[CHEF DIESEL 126]

4 minutes ago, Hefeweizen said:

Fuck that guy.  Put him on the end of a howitzer British style.

His name is Russell Bonner Bentley and is a convicted drug smuggler, communist and thief.

[CooterBrown 18288]

Quite calling that guy an austinite. He’s from fucking round rock. Suburbanites don’t get to claim the cool city nearby when they actually live in Shitburg.

[KYHorn 17617]

So if Russia continues to step over the line into war crimes, is it feasible to give the Ukrainians some of our less advanced UAVs, get some of these Ukrainian refugees to learn some quick UAV control skills, and let them go at it? Or is that still across the line? It's still technically training and giving deadly weapons as we have been doing, and if Russia is gonna flirt with technicalities as usual and then proceed to jump right over the line, it seems like the technicalities involved with the UAV idea are not so large of a stretch.

[Sgt Hulk 14464]

2 hours ago, Shady Ray said:

Man, this is where I think we are completely in uncharted territory. 
 

As inspiring as the Ukrainians have been so far, they can't hold out forever. And what we are seeing unfold on the ground now is shaping up to be a situation where the oft-repeated refrain of "never again will we stand by and watch wholesale slaughter occur on European soil" will be put to the test. And I think everyone knows that if we step in in any meaningful way, the conflict immediately expands to the worst possible possibilities.

 

And I don't want to sound cynical, because all life is worth protecting, but prior to the last five days I don't think there would have even been the slightest inclination to offer anything more than concerned words re Russian atrocities over there in much of Western Europe. But the Ukrainian actions have been so emotionally inspiring, and their PR demonstrating their resolve and their humanity is fucking onnnnnn point, that I think we are going to see populations in certain corners seriously start to push leaders towards stepping in. And that is an understandable position...we are humans living in the free world, and we are influenced by the brutality that we see. And it is in our nature to want to stop it. But that good and wholesome desire very well kick off something really, really terrible.

 



I can speak for many in Germany when I say that the “other-ization” of Ukrainians that was in place a mere week ago re the Ukrainians has washed away, and they are genuinely respected here now for what they have shown. And there is emotional investment in their safety and success. And with that investment comes willingness to accept steps that could kick off the big one.

 

It truly is a really dangerous moment.

Well said. 

[Homercles 10206]

8 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Somebody wondered if some of it is due to them being scared of friendly fire incidents, but that doesn't explain the opening 24 hours when they could have been doing a lot more, when not as many Russian units were engaged/close to Ukrainian units.

The whole thing is still so fucking weird.  This one particular FB group I'm in has a variety of people who went to high school together and almost all of us who enlisted did it in the late 80s/early 90s when the military was still somewhat stuck on the Cold War mentality (even as the Soviet Union/Eastern Europe was changing) and still trained that way.  Even those who did college/military academy first still entered the military in the mid/late-90s when Russia was the Big Baddie.

And those strategies we had still trained on had clearly worked in the first Gulf War.  The logistics chains we used to move a massive amount of materials to Saudi Arabia, as well as in-depth combined arms attack/movement weren't something that was ginned up in late 1990 as a response to Kuwait's invasion. That was all based on plans to reinforce Europe, fight in Central Europe, and those plans probably stretched back to the '70s.

But that raises another issue.  Our military these days are led by folks around 15 years older than me, and they had to pivot from the early 80s Cold War stuff to things like the Balkans, and Afghanistan and later Iraq 2003, but the US pivoted, even if it was painful at times.

The Russians can't seem to pivot, especially if they are repeating mistakes they made in the 1990s and on up through Syria.  This whole BTG thing seems like a colossal fuckup.

Not to reference the same book twice in this thread, but it moves so fast that it probably doesn’t matter…but The Generals War is a great in depth book on Gulf 1.  I always loved it for the insight into how Col Wardens plan to get Iraq to acquiesce through small scale precision strikes was expanded into a massive air campaign.  
 

However and more relevant to your point, the Iraqi army was (due to equipment and training) wholly unable to operate in space and largely confined to the limited road network.  With GPS, training and tactics the US was able to operate off the beaten path with impunity and absolutely routed their conventional forces.  In fact they collapsed so quickly that the whole ‘left hook’ plan to catch the Guard largely failed because they immediately retreated (later committing genocide) and pressure mounted to end hostilities after Highway Of Death images were shown 24/7 on CNN.  
 

Just another data point for Russia’s inability to institutionalize lessons learned into their equipment and tactics. 

[statsman 5693]

Russia is going to win, but their military victory will be brutal, and not surgical (like they hoped for). The brutality will incentivize the west (Germany) to wean off Russian energy. 
Ukraine will be free again, but it will take years, maybe decades. The west will look back and learn from mistakes- ignoring the Georgia and Crimea grabs, holding a free-ish Ukraine at arms length for having too much government corruption, assessing Putin on wishes and hopes rather than actions. 
Putin has made one huge strategic blunder, in my opinion, that means he can’t win. His ultimate goal is to restore the bi-polar world order from before 1989. That won’t/can’t happen. If the world resumes a two axis course, it won’t be Russia (the worlds 10th largest economy and not even 2% of the population) opposite the west; it will be China. 
And what does China think of all this? They have strategic goals- primarily to replace the US as the global leader politically and economically. They have a long border with Russia and have firm ideas on what they want on the other side of it (hint- not west leaning). 
I think our (US) days of getting to be fat, dumb and happy about global affairs are ending. 

[TXSG8R 3362]

19 minutes ago, Shady Ray said:

Exactly. And any politician saying so should be shamed. The number of talking heads advocating no-fly zones and other forms of direct intervention has been really alarming over the last two days. And that gets certain understandable emotions going in people who are searching for us to "do something"...which is truly an understandable sentiment. But leaders need to be leaders, which fortunately by and large most have been so far, as least as far as I can tell.

 

But for some, the prioritization of Twitter likes over actual cause-and-effect is simply stunning. 

/no cr

There’s a class of politician that lives in that emotional zone.  It’s safe to say things they know are impossible to achieve, and then you get to blame the other guy for stopping it. With echo chambers, gerrymandering, and a two party system, it’s pretty foolproof. 

[Mrs Whiggins 13050]

28 minutes ago, CHEF DIESEL said:

Commie Austinite longhair boomer fighting with the Russians interviewed in the link

https://funker530.com/video/the-weird-texan-guy-embedded-with-russian-soldiers-in-ukraine/

 

This article below is from 2018 and is much more in depth in detailing the war beneath the war that Russia is staging.

https://www.texasmonthly.com/articles/son-wealthy-businessman-foot-soldier-vladimir-putin-russia-hacking/

[Cheeseweasel 26442]

1 hour ago, Hefeweizen said:

I don't see any off ramp here at all.  Russia is committed - Putin isn't going to stop.  Economic collapse will happen (they can't keep banks and stock market closed forever in Russia) but I don't think it's soon enough.  The oligarchs are the only ones who can make the change at the top.  Russian military probably isn't going to mutiny or desert en masse; although there is some chance of this.

No way anyone intervenes unless Russia hits outside Ukraine's borders.  

This is going to be a bloody two weeks and then the insurgency will go on for a while. 

We need to remember our history. The destruction of the German economy after WWI lead to WWII. Everything is on a knife's edge right now. Our best hope is that this brings an new, progressive government into Russia that the rest of the world can work with. Doubtful, but hopeful.

[TXSG8R 3362]

4 minutes ago, statsman said:

Russia is going to win, but their military victory will be brutal, and not surgical (like they hoped for). The brutality will incentivize the west (Germany) to wean off Russian energy. 
Ukraine will be free again, but it will take years, maybe decades. The west will look back and learn from mistakes- ignoring the Georgia and Crimea grabs, holding a free-ish Ukraine at arms length for having too much government corruption, assessing Putin on wishes and hopes rather than actions. 
Putin has made one huge strategic blunder, in my opinion, that means he can’t win. His ultimate goal is to restore the bi-polar world order from before 1989. That won’t/can’t happen. If the world resumes a two axis course, it won’t be Russia (the worlds 10th largest economy and not even 2% of the population) opposite the west; it will be China. 
And what does China think of all this? They have strategic goals- primarily to replace the US as the global leader politically and economically. They have a long border with Russia and have firm ideas on what they want on the other side of it (hint- not west leaning). 
I think our (US) days of getting to be fat, dumb and happy about global affairs are ending. 

I’m not sure how it could be handled much differently.  We could have applied more sanctions I guess, but as this incident is showing, it probably wouldn’t have mattered. We would have the same reluctance for any direct intervention. 

[GabrielsHorn 2246]

1 minute ago, TXSG8R said:

I’m not sure how it could be handled much differently.  We could have applied more sanctions I guess, but as this incident is showing, it probably wouldn’t have mattered. We would have the same reluctance for any direct intervention. 

The argument I’ve seen is we should have put much harsher sanctions when they took Crimea and pushed our EU allies to invest in technologies to wean themselves off of Russian materials. 
 

Do agree that we are doing as well as we can right now, though. 

[Bateshorn 9991]

4 minutes ago, TXSG8R said:

I’m not sure how it could be handled much differently.  We could have applied more sanctions I guess, but as this incident is showing, it probably wouldn’t have mattered. We would have the same reluctance for any direct intervention. 

We probably could have shipped them more weapons in the last few years, but I’m not sure the Ukrainian military and government were really capable of taking advantage of that.  They’ve only in the last half decade made a hard turn towards Europe and western style democracy. We all love the Ukrainian President now, but he was a joke that was being used as political cannon fodder in US domestic politics not 2 years ago.

Edited March 1, 2022 by Bateshorn

[South Austin 53230]

5 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Our best hope is that this brings an new, progressive government into Russia that the rest of the world can work with.

[GW Hayduke 1957]

2 hours ago, SL Xpress said:

The only hope for Ukraine is Putin being killed. 

Or removed from power.  That is the end game here.  Regime change.  

We have moved the front lines of authoritarianism vs liberal democracy from the ballot box of western countries (including the US) to Ukraine.  I think it is possible Putin stays in power and eventually succeeds in Ukraine, but his economy, military, and influence around the world that they have worked decades to achieve will be shattered.  What we do after that will be important. 

[956 Worldwide 35598]

5 minutes ago, TXSG8R said:

I’m not sure how it could be handled much differently.  We could have applied more sanctions I guess, but as this incident is showing, it probably wouldn’t have mattered. We would have the same reluctance for any direct intervention. 

We could have named Ukraine a major non-NATO Ally and put a symbolic troop presence there and we could have sold/given much more in defense articles and tech to them. 

[statsman 5693]

11 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

We need to remember our history. The destruction of the German economy after WWI lead to WWII. Everything is on a knife's edge right now. Our best hope is that this brings an new, progressive government into Russia that the rest of the world can work with. Doubtful, but hopeful.

How about more “liberal” rather than more “progressive”? (Also, I think modern historians feel Germany’s central planning did more to destroy their economy than the Treaty of Versailles)

Edited March 1, 2022 by statsman

[texastough 1142]

I am normally not a thread police, but all the "we should have done XYZ differently" is driving me nuts. Most of the posts are uninformed garbage and the only way to respond/discuss goes CR in no time. Pretty please can we stick to whats happening now in Ukraine?

[TXSG8R 3362]

3 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

We probably could have shipped them more weapons in the last few years, but I’m not sure the Ukrainian military and government were really capable of taking advantage of that.  They’ve only in the last half decade made a hard turn towards Europe and western style democracy. We all love the Ukrainian President now, but he was a joke that was being used as political cannon fodder in US domestic politics not 2 years ago.

Yea, hindsight is 20/20 and all that. No way we would pump serious arms into one of the most corrupt countries in the world without Russia’s boot on their neck. 

[TwiceHorn 32084]

6 hours ago, Pods said:

There's been some discussion about why many of the Russian tanks don't have slat armor and whether it would help much against the drones, NLAW and Javelins. 

Doesn't look like it helped these guys much, though R/TankPorn says they are spaced too far apart. 

 

I said it earlier, but I have kind of followed that issue over the years.  "Slat" armor, or skirts, spaced things like that are effective against primitive shaped-charge weapons like Panzerfaust, bazooka, RPG, but not so much against the more sophisticated AT weapons like Javelin and several predecessors.  They have dual-charge warheads, a first to defeat spaced or reactive armor, and a second to actually do the destruction.

Which is why reactive armor replaced it.  But yeah, it probably needs to be more closely spaced to have much hope of defeating even an RPG.

[GabrielsHorn 2246]

In case you were wondering about Russia’s latest excuse

 

[Constant 6887]

 

[4doorsMoreWhores 107]

5 minutes ago, texastough said:

I am normally not a thread police, but all the "we should have done XYZ differently" is driving me nuts. Most of the posts are uninformed garbage and the only way to respond/discuss goes CR in no time. Pretty please can we stick to whats happening now in Ukraine?

Welcome to Surly

[Cheeseweasel 26442]

5 minutes ago, texastough said:

Most of the posts are uninformed garbage

Motto worthy. Welcome to the Surl, noob.

[Orange&White 5573]

3 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

Putin is part of a large NATO false flag operation to finish Russia once and for all so the globalist communists can finally unite under the leadership of Soros and Xi

 

It’s the only logical explanation 

[Cheeseweasel 26442]

9 minutes ago, statsman said:

How about more “liberal” rather than more “progressive”?

Potato / Potahto. 

I'm not getting bogged down in terms. They just need to stop being pieces of shit.

[TXSG8R 3362]

9 minutes ago, texastough said:

I am normally not a thread police, but all the "we should have done XYZ differently" is driving me nuts. Most of the posts are uninformed garbage and the only way to respond/discuss goes CR in no time. Pretty please can we stick to whats happening now in Ukraine?