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[Constant 6,718]

 

[Shady Ray 1,633]

3 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

Putin is part of a large NATO false flag operation to finish Russia once and for all so the globalist communists can finally unite under the leadership of Soros and Xi Turkmenistan's Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedow.

 

It’s the only logical explanation 

Close. But I fixed it for you.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Neonmoon 38,127]

18 minutes ago, GabrielsHorn said:

In case you were wondering about Russia’s latest excuse

 

First off, fuck that guy 

but if he really wanted to troll NATO, he should of used the phrase “weapons of mass destruction”

Edited March 1, 2022 by Neonmoon

[956 Worldwide 34,313]

On the MiG donation question. So far the Poles are silent. Make of that what you will. Here is what the Slovak DefMin says on his Facebook:

 

Quote

Will we donate MiGs to Ukraine?

Many of you are asking me if Slovakia will donate MiG-29 fighters to Ukraine. I will repeat- that conversation hasn’t happened, so Slovakia doesn’t plan to. Most importantly, Ukraine hasn’t asked us for them.

True, I advised that we are negotiating the possible early divestment of our MiGs, but until everything is negotiated— nothing is negotiated. It would be extremely irresponsible to get rid of elements of our air defense without an adequate replacement. 
 

Please, allow for a rational negotiation, we will listen to the requests from Ukraine, and I assure you all that we will update you on this topic if there are concrete developments. 

Side note— it is wild to follow small countries’ politics where people like the DefMin write their own statuses and reply to comments on Facebook. 

Edited March 1, 2022 by 956 Worldwide

[texastough 1,128]

4 minutes ago, TXSG8R said:

FTR that was not directed at you. Just reading a bunch of posts like "WE SHOULD HAVE BEEN ARMING UKRAINE AND STOPPING PUTIN LONG AGO!!!" Wut? Where have these people been? Not only ignores Ukraine's relatively recent history, but a response would include stuff like, we were set to send arms and such a few years ago but we didn't because reasons . . . and the other thread is for that kind of discussion  

[TXSG8R 3,355]

22 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

We could have named Ukraine a major non-NATO Ally and put a symbolic troop presence there and we could have sold/given much more in defense articles and tech to them. 

Again, with hindsight it seems great. None of that was remotely on the table with us or NATO until Russia invaded. There’s no chance we would ever approve them for export control hardware with the corruption that was rife in their gov’t and country at large. They are getting all of this as a result of Russia’s invasion, there’s no chance it would even be considered without it. Putin is his worst enemy. 

[TwiceHorn 31,184]

8 hours ago, Scheiss Meister said:

That, and there is probably theft at every level of the Russian military.  Some plywood for my dacha here, some grenades to raise some mad money there, it adds up.

I believe the USSR's economy was stronger pretty much at all times than Russia's has been since it fell.  Plus the nature of that system inherently put more resources into "defense." 

I think we were always rightly suspect of how good really were Soviet forces and weapons and I think that goes double or triple today because their economy is weaker and the kleptocracy form of government is less inherently able to support defense.

So, to the extent we're being shown that Russian forces are overrated, that's probably to be expected.  Unfortunately, I don't think we can take that completely for granted.

[TXSG8R 3,355]

3 minutes ago, texastough said:

FTR that was not directed at you. Just reading a bunch of posts like "WE SHOULD HAVE BEEN ARMING UKRAINE AND STOPPING PUTIN LONG AGO!!!" Wut? Where have these people been? Not only ignores Ukraine's relatively recent history, but a response would include stuff like, we were set to send arms and such a few years ago but we didn't because reasons . . . and the other thread is for that kind of discussion  

First, fuck you, welcome to surly. Second, I know. I’m largely in agreement. It can be discussed without CRing, as long as you aren’t invested in one of the teams. We aren’t the only dog in this fight, and NATO/EU isn’t beholden to our political whims. None of this was on the table with them either before the invasion. In fact they were even more standoffish.  Putin made Switzerland pick a side FFS. That’s all you need to know about what’s possible now versus what was possible even a week ago. 

[Neonmoon 38,127]

Interesting 

https://www.politico.eu/article/finland-nato-membership-sanna-marin-ukraine-russia/
 

Not as definitive as the tweet makes it out. Finns got the required 50,000 signatures that requires parliament to debate the referendum 

Edited March 1, 2022 by Neonmoon

[troph 24,547]

3 hours ago, Shady Ray said:

Man, this is where I think we are completely in uncharted territory. 
 

As inspiring as the Ukrainians have been so far, they can't hold out forever. And what we are seeing unfold on the ground now is shaping up to be a situation where the oft-repeated refrain of "never again will we stand by and watch wholesale slaughter occur on European soil" will be put to the test. And I think everyone knows that if we step in in any meaningful way, the conflict immediately expands to the worst possible possibilities.

 

And I don't want to sound cynical, because all life is worth protecting, but prior to the last five days I don't think there would have even been the slightest inclination to offer anything more than concerned words re Russian atrocities over there in much of Western Europe. But the Ukrainian actions have been so emotionally inspiring, and their PR demonstrating their resolve and their humanity is fucking onnnnnn point, that I think we are going to see populations in certain corners seriously start to push leaders towards stepping in. And that is an understandable position...we are humans living in the free world, and we are influenced by the brutality that we see. And it is in our nature to want to stop it. But that good and wholesome desire very well kick off something really, really terrible.

 



I can speak for many in Germany when I say that the “other-ization” of Ukrainians that was in place a mere week ago re the Ukrainians has washed away, and they are genuinely respected here now for what they have shown. And there is emotional investment in their safety and success. And with that investment comes willingness to accept steps that could kick off the big one.

 

It truly is a really dangerous moment.

Public sentiment is rapidly changing. It started several days ago, you could see it happening and see the train coming. There are no good choices here. Ukraine will be destroyed by conventional or by tactical nukes if NATO steps in. 

2 hours ago, FartingMonk said:

I feel like we are really past the point of brinkmanship.  There is no resolution except with the death of Putin.

3 days ago it was hysteria to say such things. 
 

we have no idea where we will be in 3 more days.

[Bevo 13,492]

9 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

On the MiG donation question. So far the Poles are silent. Make of that what you will. Here is what the Slovak DefMin says on his Facebook:

 

Quote

Will we donate MiGs to Ukraine?

Many of you are asking me if Slovakia will donate MiG-29 fighters to Ukraine. I will repeat- that conversation hasn’t happened, so Slovakia doesn’t plan to. Most importantly, Ukraine hasn’t asked us for them.

True, I advised that we are negotiating the possible early divestment of our MiGs, but until everything is negotiated— nothing is negotiated. It would be extremely irresponsible to get rid of elements of our air defense without an adequate replacement. 
 

Please, allow for a rational negotiation, we will listen to the requests from Ukraine, and I assure you all that we will update you on this topic if there are concrete developments. 

Side note— it is wild to follow small countries’ politics where people like the DefMin write their own statuses and reply to comments on Facebook. 

To me it sounds like if we or the EU donate modern fighters to Slovakia, Slovakia will donate MiGs to Ukraine. It seems like an easy decision.

What is a harder decision is whether we want to donate planes to the Ukraine and have them flown by mercenaries. The right planes, equipment, and pilots could decimate that convoy even with Russian air defenses as they are in the Ukraine.

[956 Worldwide 34,313]

2 minutes ago, TXSG8R said:

Again, with hindsight it seems great. None of that was remotely on the table with us or NATO until Russia invaded. There’s no chance we would ever approve them for export control hardware with the corruption that was rife in their gov’t and country at large. They are getting all of this as a result of Russia’s invasion, there’s no chance it would even be considered without it. Putin is his worst enemy. 

We have and were exporting far more advanced tech to far more questionable nations than even Ukraine. For God’s sake we sold F-16s to Pakistan in 2006 and facilitated second hand sales as late as 2013. This was AFRER they signed a deal with China for an “indigenous” fighter, likely letting them crawl all over our earlier Vipers.
 

We had bills in Congress to designate Ukraine that died. Ukraine was dragging fucking Javelins out of us kicking and screaming in 2018 and 2019z 

This was a question of political will across successive administrations (no CR) that believed managing tensions with Russia was possible. 

[Pig Bellmont 8,679]

51 minutes ago, statsman said:

Russia is going to win, but their military victory will be brutal, and not surgical (like they hoped for). The brutality will incentivize the west (Germany) to wean off Russian energy. 
Ukraine will be free again, but it will take years, maybe decades. The west will look back and learn from mistakes- ignoring the Georgia and Crimea grabs, holding a free-ish Ukraine at arms length for having too much government corruption, assessing Putin on wishes and hopes rather than actions. 
Putin has made one huge strategic blunder, in my opinion, that means he can’t win. His ultimate goal is to restore the bi-polar world order from before 1989. That won’t/can’t happen. If the world resumes a two axis course, it won’t be Russia (the worlds 10th largest economy and not even 2% of the population) opposite the west; it will be China. 
And what does China think of all this? They have strategic goals- primarily to replace the US as the global leader politically and economically. They have a long border with Russia and have firm ideas on what they want on the other side of it (hint- not west leaning). 
I think our (US) days of getting to be fat, dumb and happy about global affairs are ending. 

Russia can topple the Ukrainian government but they can’t hold territory against an insurgent population willing to fight block by block in urban warfare- so what then? Russia withdraws, declares victory and the new Russian favorable autocrat gets toppled almost immediately. I don’t see that taking years or decades 

[The Dog 43,771]

I'm curious how to define a Russian "win" at this point. 

[956 Worldwide 34,313]

1 minute ago, Bevo said:

To me it sounds like if we or the EU donate modern fighters to Slovakia, Slovakia will donate MiGs to Ukraine. It seems like an easy decision.

What is a harder decision is whether we want to donate planes to the Ukraine and have them flown by mercenaries. The right planes, equipment, and pilots could decimate that convoy even with Russian air defenses as they are in the Ukraine.

Slovakia won’t be getting EU donations, what they are negotiating is for the Czechs to take over air defense responsibilities with their own jets.  Slovakia has 14 Block 70 Vipers getting built now in SC, but they won’t get delivered till 2023 at earliest. 

[The Dog 43,771]

Oh and IMHO Ukraine doesn't need jets - they need more of those drones. 

[956 Worldwide 34,313]

Just now, The Dog said:

Oh and IMHO Ukraine doesn't need jets - they need more of those drones. 

A MiG-29 is an air superiority aircraft, plain and simple. Thus far Russian tactical aviation has been limited but if that ramps up they will need fighters and not drones. S-300s are also great but you don’t know how long that can hold. 

[Bateshorn 9,882]

32 minutes ago, GabrielsHorn said:

In case you were wondering about Russia’s latest excuse

 

Well, you might want to focus on the fact that even the German Greens are on board with acquiring Nuclear Weapons first.

[GabrielsHorn 2,142]

 

Edited March 1, 2022 by GabrielsHorn

[SmokeyTheBear 5,562]

5 minutes ago, The Dog said:

I'm curious how to define a Russian "win" at this point. 

Putin no longer in power

[GW Hayduke 1,950]

Solid discussion yesterday on the Ukraine conflict, the recent sanctions, and how China fits into the equation between John Herbst, Julia Friedlander, Sarah Kirchberger, and Dave Sholmans.  

 

[Parliament 14,111]

6 minutes ago, The Dog said:

I'm curious how to define a Russian "win" at this point. 

Putin lives to Christmas.

[InkaUtexas 25,423]

6 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Slovakia won’t be getting EU donations, what they are negotiating is for the Czechs to take over air defense responsibilities with their own jets.  Slovakia has 14 Block 70 Vipers getting built now in SC, but they won’t get delivered till 2023 at earliest. 

I think the US, UK and France could run AirCap for them for a year or so. Canucks can carry a bit more weight for NORAD I am sure. 

[InkaUtexas 25,423]

7 minutes ago, The Dog said:

Oh and IMHO Ukraine doesn't need jets - they need more of those drones. 

Saw two Turkish transports heading to Poland early this morning. Maybe they are getting some. 

[Bateshorn 9,882]

7 minutes ago, The Dog said:

I'm curious how to define a Russian "win" at this point. 

Probably trying to secure east of the Dneiper and the coastline to Odessa, land locking Western Ukraine and allowing the Russians to graft off of grain exports.  If you go with Rational Vlad Theory.

Irrational? Attempting to erase Ukraine as an entity, destroying Ukraine physically and Russia financially, while China slowly acquires the pieces of Russia it desires as barter for lifeline financial support.

[956 Worldwide 34,313]

Just now, InkaUtexas said:

I think the US, UK and France could run AirCap for them for a year or so. Canucks can carry a bit more weight for NORAD I am sure. 

Politically and logistically it makes more sense to let the Czechs do it. The Slovaks literally barely have enough time to turn around their MiGs before they hit Czech borders.  This is more like letting North Carolina take over air cap for South Carolina for a few years. 

[Guest Lobo]

36 minutes ago, GabrielsHorn said:

In case you were wondering about Russia’s latest excuse

 

The two what?  What was that word?  Two what?  Did you say "ukes"?  What is a "uke"?  

[956 Worldwide 34,313]

7 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

Well, you might want to focus on the fact that even the German Greens are on board with acquiring Nuclear Weapons first.

They’re on board with nuclear energy not weapons. Germany is an NPT signatory and will not be developing its own deterrent. That would truly be a geopolitical earthquake. 

[InkaUtexas 25,423]

1 minute ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Politically and logistically it makes more sense to let the Czechs do it. The Slovaks literally barely have enough time to turn around their MiGs before they hit Czech borders.  This is more like letting North Carolina take over air cap for South Carolina for a few years. 

Yeah, but the flyboys get per diem this way. Gotta think about them! 

[Cheeseweasel 26,437]

6 minutes ago, SmokeyTheBear said:

Putin no longer in power

It's not just Putin pulling the strings. He's surrounded and backed by people he's made rich and powerful. They won't turn on him quickly, if at all.

[MaybeACoordinator 8,349]

2 hours ago, Bateshorn said:

Yeah.  I know the late night Surl crew gets some whiskey in its system and has dreams of A-10s mowing down Russian armor and no fly zones, but that ain’t gonna happen. 
 

The Russians are gradually moving to just slaughtering the Ukrainians.  It’s time to start thinking about what the new Cold War looks like, because we are about to have an active insurgence bordering 3 NATO states (including Poland who I’m sure is itching to lock horns with the Russians).

This is where I jump in with my UN, globally enforced Ukraine-as-giant-DMZ forever and ever plan. I was extremely gratified to see that this was not another shroom-influenced moonbat idea of mine, but one that is shared by Dr John Mearsheimer.

Who is that, you ask. Here's who:

Quote

Professor John J. Mearsheimer is the R. Wendell Harrison Distinguished Service Professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago, where he has taught since 1982. He graduated from West Point in 1970 and then served five years as an officer in the U.S. Air Force. He has published six immensely influential books on international relations theory. In 2020, he won the James Madison Award, which is given once every three years by the American Political Science Association to “an American political scientist who has made a distinguished scholarly contribution to political science.”

Here is what he had to say after / during the Crimea crisis:

 

Quote

"What's going on here is that the West is leading Ukraine down the primrose path. And the end result is that Ukraine is going to get wrecked. And I believe that the policy that I'm advocating, which is neutralising Ukraine, and then building it up economically, and getting it out of the competition between Russia on one side, NATO on the other side is the best thing that could happen to the Ukrainians. What we're doing is encouraging the Ukrainians to play tough with the Russians. We're encouraging, the Ukrainians to think that they will ultimately become part of the West, because we will ultimately defeat Putin, and we will ultimately get our way, time is on our side. And of course, the Ukrainians are playing along with this."

 

And he reiterated that point on the eve of the invasion:

 

Any fool with a limited grasp of European and Russian history and geography can look at a map and say, “Hey wouldn’t it be better if Ukraine were neutral?” 

As I've posted already, there could come a time when a free and independent Ukraine faces an existential threat from the west. If so, that possible threat was birthed yesterday, with the first announcement of a significant build-up of German arms since, oh, I would guess about 1934.

Because it happens to be where it is, it will always be a bone of contention, a flashpoint, a pawn in the great game of the lives of mightier nations...Take it off the chessboard. Fill it with peacekeepers. Allow for lax banking laws. Make Kiev the New London for shady banking and money laundering -- this would have the dual purpose of enriching Ukraine and making London quaint and bearable again, as opposed to the crass and unaffordable place it's become. Bring in tech startups to the lesser cities....Artists, writers, and trust fund kids could make L'viv or Kharkov into another Paris of the 1930s.

Fixing the eastern border of neutral Ukraine would be a bitch but I would recommend rigidly observed local plebiscites. Putin would dislike this plan but it's looking like the best he can do and it will some more appealing the longer any insurgency drags on.  The one interested party that hates this plan the most is Big War, Intl., but for once can we tell the War Machine for fuck off before we all die in a stupid nuclear war?

[pops 6,972]

12 minutes ago, The Dog said:

I'm curious how to define a Russian "win" at this point. 

There isn't one. Putin has galvanized the world against Russia in ways that no one thought possible even a week ago. They've exposed their military weakness and he's done potentially irreparable harm to the Russian economy that can only be fixed with a new government. 

They can kill every living Ukrainian and plant a Russian flag in the middle of kyiv and hang zelenskys corpse from the pole. It's over. He's lost. 

[JerrysJheriCurl 977]

6 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Putin lives to Christmas.

Give me a nickel on the under.

I wonder if there’s a market on this. There has to be. 

[Bevo 13,492]

13 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Slovakia won’t be getting EU donations, what they are negotiating is for the Czechs to take over air defense responsibilities with their own jets.  Slovakia has 14 Block 70 Vipers getting built now in SC, but they won’t get delivered till 2023 at earliest. 

Sounds like an internal fight. I lived in Ostrava near Slovakia and Slovakia pretty much only exists because politicians in the east wanted more power. So if Slovakia now wants the Czech Republic to spend its money on Slovakia, I can see why the Czech Republic would hesitate.

[Nivek 16,807]

Interesting point I read elsewhere, but nonetheless interesting:
 
Putin forgot that he had personally stolen the military budget needed to maintain his own army.  Estimates put Putin's personal net worth anywhere from 50 Billion to 500 Billion, all of it stolen from the Russian the people.  We have don't have a great picture of his overall finances because he's done all this behind the scenes with the use of black budgets (i.e. military) hidden from people view in the auspicious national security.  
 
So basically, he's projected huge military strength when in reality he's spent the last 20 years stealing the money needed to have said strength.  Here's the weird part, now he seems shocked that his military is barely functional despite the fact that he is the one who made it that way.  
 
The cognitive decline argument I think at the very least has some valid points.

I don’t really buy this. I think the cognitive decline is an angle to incite an excuse to overthrow, or place doubt.

His problem isn’t necessarily finding, it is that he is surrounded by yes-men who never evaluated their capabilities objectively. And when one does make a smarter choice or try to challenge him to rethink his position, he is publicly humiliated and brought to heel, or falls out of a window.

[NoName 16,271]

 

 

 

[Errestaurants 2,570]

Scarface said it best

“I often wished I could save everyone, but I’m a dreamer”

[956 Worldwide 34,313]

8 minutes ago, Bevo said:

Sounds like an internal fight. I lived in Ostrava near Slovakia and Slovakia pretty much only exists because politicians in the east wanted more power. So if Slovakia now wants the Czech Republic to spend its money on Slovakia, I can see why the Czech Republic would hesitate.

Nah, the Czechs are making the right noises on this one already. A lot of water under a lot of bridges. 

[Onboard 2.0 9,083]

29 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

 

I think we were always rightly suspect of how good really were Soviet forces and weapons and I think that goes double or triple today because their economy is weaker and the kleptocracy form of government is less inherently able to support defense.

 

I can tell you a phone call I got the other night kind of refutes this a bit.  Our military has been scrambling to figure out exactly what the failed invasion is the result of. They were completely caught off guard by how inept this has been, and what it means going forward. That's from somebody that works on this type of issue.  

[ChiTownDoc 21,091]

7 hours ago, Serak The Preparer said:

Got dammit Sooner you done been wooshed. The hint was the unfamiliar equipment that he loaned his non-Latin-keyboard-using friend.

My bad.  Few posts up his English was shit on (not by me) when he posted on China.  And I was sober.  Sad

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11,667]

1 hour ago, GabrielsHorn said:

In case you were wondering about Russia’s latest excuse

 

What in gods holy name are you blathering about? Are they going to steal the Red October from you?  Or are you saying we accidentally slipped a minuteman in our relief package and didn’t notice.  Oopsie!  
 

also, this dude is straight out of “diplomatic immunity!” central casting foreign bad guy. 

[RPM 26,185]

37 minutes ago, troph said:

Ukraine will be destroyed by conventional or by tactical nukes if NATO steps in. 

If Putin goes nuke, it's all over for all of us because there will be a response.

[GabrielsHorn 2,142]

 

[956 Worldwide 34,313]

@MaybeACoordinator, Mearshimer is a giant of international relations theory but breaks down when it comes to application. The bottom line is that Ukrainian neutrality in the sense of Austrian or Finnish neutrality, with real independence and guarantees of non-aggression and interference, was not something Russia ever planned to tolerate.

Russia has been non-neutral and more or less hostile to Ukraine since 2004.  Russian backed agents poisoned the presidential candidate they did not like and then helped rig the subsequent election when he didn’t die as planned.  Please note— that’s not what happens in neutral nations, and that’s why they wanted in NATO and asked for it. 
 

When Russia’s guy finally got his chance (after fair elections that his pro-West opponent allowed) l, he proceeded to do Russias bidding against the will of his own people and would not sign an EU trade agreement.  Russia invaded Crime and the East.  Note— this is not neutral behavior or the way to prod a state to neutrality. 
 

It’s important to be honest about the terms, Putin’s Russia defines neutrality as “puppet state” when it comes to the near abroad. Finland and Austria and Switzerland were never an option because Russia wouldn’t accept it. Poisoning political candidates and rigging and elections is Kremlin war by other means.  Talking about neutrality is like telling the armed intruder in your house “please don’t trespass and we can get along.” 
 

Railing against “War, Inc” is really just sloganeering. We have a war because Russia launched a war, the focus needs to be on how to stop it, not flights of fancy about how this is all Raytheon’s fault. 

Edited March 1, 2022 by 956 Worldwide

[The Ace of Aces 5,106]

4 minutes ago, GabrielsHorn said:

 

Giving jets to Ukraine at this point only symbolic. Russia clearly now controls the airspace or at least had rendered Ukrainian air force systems moot. 

We have quickly moving from an invasion into a Russian occupation. They essentially already have the two biggest cities, they'll never control rural areas. 

 

[BabaYaga 15,202]

43 minutes ago, The Dog said:

I'm curious how to define a Russian "win" at this point. 

Minimum making the conference championship game and a shot at the CFB playoffs.  

[Cheeseweasel 26,437]

1 minute ago, BabaYaga said:

Minimum making the conference championship game and a shot at the CFB playoffs.  

[GabrielsHorn 2,142]

 

[Capt. Squints 176]

1 hour ago, GabrielsHorn said:

In case you were wondering about Russia’s latest excuse

 

Fucking Men's Wearhouse cheap ass clothes. Backwards assholes can't even dress properly.

[Pig Bellmont 8,679]

1 minute ago, GabrielsHorn said:

 

Having talks with no ceasefire seems dumb.