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I can tell you a phone call I got the other night kind of refutes this a bit.  Our military has been scrambling to figure out exactly what the failed invasion is the result of. They were completely caught off guard by how inept this has been, and what it means going forward. That's from somebody that works on this type of issue.  

I’m not surprised their ground forces are sloppy. The MO of the Russian Army has been quantity over quality going back to the Tsars. It looks like they’re taking this approach with Kiev, aiming to encircle the city with a massive force. At the current rate they’ll still likely be able to cut off supply lines and eventually swallow the city, even if it comes at significant cost.

I am surprised Ukraine has been able to deny complete air superiority. I’d have thought the Russians could overwhelm Ukraine quickly with air power but that hasn’t been the case so far. As long as that remains so this is going to be brutally slow-moving.
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This is just heartbreaking for all of us to watch. Russians about to launch a devastating attack on Kyiv and those not dead from all the blasts will be going into hand to hand combat. I know I’m an idiot for saying this but I really hope the world will intercede. I hope they have a massive trap laid for that convoy as it nears the city. God Speed! Slava Ukraini! These people have won our hearts with their resilience and I am praying like hell they succeed and Zelenskyy and his cabinet survive this attack on humanity by a fucking bully. I hope Putin chokes to death in his bunker. Praying for that miracle! 

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2 minutes ago, gmr548 said:


I’m not surprised their ground forces are sloppy. The MO of the Russian Army has been quantity over quality going back to the Tsars. It looks like they’re taking this approach with Kiev, aiming to encircle the city with a massive force. At the current rate they’ll still likely be able to cut off supply lines and eventually swallow the city, even if it comes at significant cost.

I am surprised Ukraine has been able to deny complete air superiority. I’d have thought the Russians could overwhelm Ukraine quickly with air power but that hasn’t been the case so far. As long as that remains so this is going to be brutally slow-moving.

 California has a bigger GDP than Russia that points to a huge factor in their military readiness, the depth of the military, the Sophistication, Training, and technology In my opinion.

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3 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

I can tell you a phone call I got the other night kind of refutes this a bit.  Our military has been scrambling to figure out exactly what the failed invasion is the result of. They were completely caught off guard by how inept this has been, and what it means going forward. That's from somebody that works on this type of issue.  

I think most expected the 24-36 hour invasion scenario which would have put Russia in an infinitely better position at the negotiating table and as this drug on the political environment shifted so dramatically that now there is no viable near term political solution for a Russian “win”.

We are now on day 5 and the Ukrainian government is still in power and with it the hope and resolve of the Ukrainian people are now in full bloom. This emboldens the rest of the world to continue to put forth devastating longterm sanctions on Russia and pour in secondary military support to Ukraine.

So the question everyone has is why  was there an abject failure in the early moments of the invasion and how did Russia read the scenario so poorly?

I have seen dozens of views on why, but so far no one can string together a logic stream that can rationally explain what happened in the first 36 hours. It’s looks to be a mix of arrogance on Russias part, mixed with some bad luck, some political decisions impacting strategy on the ground, lots of ground troops that aren’t working  in coordination, and some fierce resistance by the populace that for some reason no one really considered in the invasion scenario.

The thing that is really the most surprising to me is the overall lack of troops for an operation this size.  It is almost like they believed their own propaganda so much to the point that they expected to use the limited troop build up to just advance and not to have to fight protracted engagements or to maintain troops to protect supply lines or garrison captured territory.

Looking back at this, if they would have had 5 to 10 times as many ground forces deployed at the start, this would be over. That being said, if they had amassed that many troops beforehand the political climate pre-invasion  would have been radically different.

It is almost like they tried to thread the needle on how large of a force could be staged nearby that wouldn’t trigger an overwhelming political response prior to the invasion and never did the math to figure out if that would have been enough.

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58 minutes ago, Bevo said:

To me it sounds like if we or the EU donate modern fighters to Slovakia, Slovakia will donate MiGs to Ukraine. It seems like an easy decision.

What is a harder decision is whether we want to donate planes to the Ukraine and have them flown by mercenaries. The right planes, equipment, and pilots could decimate that convoy even with Russian air defenses as they are in the Ukraine.

I have to presume your continued usage of "the" Ukraine is intentional.  Show some respect to them and call them by their term of choice.  "Ukraine."

As a reminder, from Wiki:

Quote

Ukraine is one of a few English country names traditionally used with the definite article the.[1] This is apparently because the word "ukraina" means "borderland",[30] and so would be translated as if "the borderlands" — the Ukraine — like how Nederlanden, meaning "nether lands", is translated as "the Netherlands".[31] Use of the article was standard before Ukrainian independence, but has decreased since the 1990s.[2][3][32] For example, the Associated Press dropped the article "the" on 3 December 1991.[3] Use of the definite article was criticised as suggesting a non-sovereign territory, much like "the Lebanon" referred to the region before its independence, or as one might refer to "the Midwest", a region of the United States.[33][34][35]

In 1993, the Ukrainian government explicitly requested that, in linguistic agreement with countries and not regions,[36] the Russian preposition в be used instead of на,[37] and in 2012, the Ukrainian embassy in London further stated that it is politically and grammatically incorrect to use a definite article with Ukraine.[1] Use of Ukraine without the definite article has since become commonplace in journalism and diplomacy (other examples are the style guides of The Guardian[38] and The Times[39]).

 

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Exactly. And any politician saying so should be shamed. The number of talking heads advocating no-fly zones and other forms of direct intervention has been really alarming over the last two days. And that gets certain understandable emotions going in people who are searching for us to "do something"...which is truly an understandable sentiment. But leaders need to be leaders, which fortunately by and large most have been so far, as least as far as I can tell.
 
But for some, the prioritization of Twitter likes over actual cause-and-effect is simply stunning. 

Meh, it is just emotion talking. When I asked my son what we should do he said we should send in our military. I asked if he would be OK with me going over there and fighting and possibly dying there and he predictably reversed course. I told him I feel the same way, torn. Also our country just exited decades long conflict, we need a break.

Playing self-funded world-cop is kind of bullshit.

Lastly, Ukraine evacuated nearly 100 people from Afghanistan last year. Can you imagine the trauma those refugees have?
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2 minutes ago, Laxtonto said:

I think most expected the 24-36 hour invasion scenario which would have put Russia in an infinitely better position at the negotiating table and as this drug on the political environment shifted so dramatically that now there is no viable near term political solution for a Russian “win”.

We are now on day 5 and the Ukrainian government is still in power and with it the hope and resolve of the Ukrainian people are now in full bloom. This emboldens the rest of the world to continue to put forth devastating longterm sanctions on Russia and pour in secondary military support to Ukraine.

So the question everyone has is why  was there an abject failure in the early moments of the invasion and how did Russia read the scenario so poorly?

I have seen dozens of views on why, but so far no one can string together a logic stream that can rationally explain what happened in the first 36 hours. It’s looks to be a mix of arrogance on Russias part, mixed with some bad luck, some political decisions impacting strategy on the ground, lots of ground troops that aren’t working  in coordination, and some fierce resistance by the populace that for some reason no one really considered in the invasion scenario.

The thing that is really the most surprising to me is the overall lack of troops for an operation this size.  It is almost like they believed their own propaganda so much to the point that they expected to use the limited troop build up to just advance and not to have to fight protracted engagements or to maintain troops to protect supply lines or garrison captured territory.

Looking back at this, if they would have had 5 to 10 times as many ground forces deployed at the start, this would be over. That being said, if they had amassed that many troops beforehand the political climate pre-invasion  would have been radically different.

It is almost like they tried to thread the needle on how large of a force could be staged nearby that wouldn’t trigger an overwhelming political response prior to the invasion and never did the math to figure out if that would have been enough.

Had this very conversation with a lifelong friend.  He said it was gonna be just like 1939, and Poland. I said no it would take longer than that to take Ukraine, mostly because they do have an actual modernish army, the world was watching, we would supply them with common border supply routes.

That, and I have been suspect of actual Russian prowess for a long time. Their 800 lb gorilla is a nuclear arsenal. 

I thought they’d take Ukraine thru attrition then it would be like the US in Iraq.

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We need to remember our history. The destruction of the German economy after WWI lead to WWII. Everything is on a knife's edge right now. Our best hope is that this brings an new, progressive government into Russia that the rest of the world can work with. Doubtful, but hopeful.

That destruction was external. This one is internal , like North Korea.
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The thing that is really the most surprising to me is the overall lack of troops for an operation this size.  It is almost like they believed their own propaganda so much to the point that they expected to use the limited troop build up to just advance and not to have to fight protracted engagements or to maintain troops to protect supply lines or garrison captured territory.
Looking back at this, if they would have had 5 to 10 times as many ground forces deployed at the start, this would be over. That being said, if they had amassed that many troops beforehand the political climate pre-invasion  would have been radically different.
It is almost like they tried to thread the needle on how large of a force could be staged nearby that wouldn’t trigger an overwhelming political response prior to the invasion and never did the math to figure out if that would have been enough.

Russia has deployed a majority of its entire ground force in this operation. Some estimates as high as 70%. There is no 5x or 10x larger force to deploy.
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1 minute ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

I thought they’d take Ukraine thru attrition then it would be like the US in Iraq.

After seeing this Russian shit show, I'm argue that our GW1 forces in Kuwait and Iraq would have kicked the ever living shit out of todays Russian army.  

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32 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

@MaybeACoordinator, Mearshimer is a giant of international relations theory but breaks down when it comes to application. The bottom line is that Ukrainian neutrality in the sense of Austrian or Finnish neutrality, with real independence and guarantees of non-aggression and interference, was not something Russia ever planned to tolerate.

Russia has been non-neutral and more or less hostile to Ukraine since 2004.  Russian backed agents poisoned the presidential candidate they did not like and then helped rig the subsequent election when he didn’t die as planned.  Please note— that’s not what happens in neutral nations, and that’s why they wanted in NATO and asked for it. 
 

When Russia’s guy finally got his chance (after fair elections that his pro-West opponent allowed) l, he proceeded to do Russias bidding against the will of his own people and would not sign an EU trade agreement.  Russia invaded Crime and the East.  Note— this is not neutral behavior or the way to prod a state to neutrality. 
 

It’s important to be honest about the terms, Putin’s Russia defines neutrality as “puppet state” when it comes to the near abroad. Finland and Austria and Switzerland were never an option because Russia wouldn’t accept it. Poisoning political candidates and rigging and elections is Kremlin war by other means.  Talking about neutrality is like telling the armed intruder in your house “please don’t trespass and we can get along.” 
 

Railing against “War, Inc” is really just sloganeering. We have a war because Russia launched a war, the focus needs to be on how to stop it, not flights of fancy about how this is all Raytheon’s fault. 

 

Not suggesting this is in any way realistic right now, but maybe at the end of a year or two of insurgency and crushing sanctions, the Bear may be made to dance to our tune. I think this enforced neutrality is the best music to play.

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4 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

After seeing this Russian shit show, I'm argue that our GW1 forces in Kuwait and Iraq would have kicked the ever living shit out of todays Russian army.  

They don't seem to have night vision capabilities beyond Spetznaz forces, and don't seem to have a sophisticated, coordinated GPS fire fight system for night time maneuvers. Their re-supply is potentially non existent much beyond initial maneuvers. 

I think we'd push their shit in very badly in a NY minute.  

Edited by Onboard 2.0
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On the MiG donation question. So far the Poles are silent. Make of that what you will. Here is what the Slovak DefMin says on his Facebook:
 
Will we donate MiGs to Ukraine?
Many of you are asking me if Slovakia will donate MiG-29 fighters to Ukraine. I will repeat- that conversation hasn’t happened, so Slovakia doesn’t plan to. Most importantly, Ukraine hasn’t asked us for them.
True, I advised that we are negotiating the possible early divestment of our MiGs, but until everything is negotiated— nothing is negotiated. It would be extremely irresponsible to get rid of elements of our air defense without an adequate replacement. 
 
Please, allow for a rational negotiation, we will listen to the requests from Ukraine, and I assure you all that we will update you on this topic if there are concrete developments. 
Side note— it is wild to follow small countries’ politics where people like the DefMin write their own statuses and reply to comments on Facebook. 

The response is to contract France to be their air defense while they replenish their own.
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 California has a bigger GDP than Russia that points to a huge factor in their military readiness, the depth of the military, the Sophistication, Training, and technology In my opinion.

Yeah, it’s no secret that Russia is at the big boy table primarily because of its nuclear arsenal alone, not because of its comprehensive economic and military power.

For this reason I’m skeptical they can afford the long term costs of occupation/regime change with western supported resistance and aggressive economic sanctions. They’ll have backed themselves into a corner, especially if Finland and Sweden reconsider NATO - which Russia can beat its chest on as much as it wants, but they don’t have the capacity to threaten those countries given what they are having to invest in the Ukrainian invasion. They could be in a really rough spot this time next year.

I think the real winner here, geopolitically, is China. They’re going to be Russia’s only outside option and will be able to get very favorable terms when dealing with Russia because of that.
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1 minute ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

They don't seem to have night vision capabilities beyond Spetznaz forces, and don't seem to have a sophisticated, coordinated GPS fire fight system for night time maneuvers. Their re-supply is potentially non existent much beyond initial maneuvers. 

I think we'd push their shit in very badly in a NY minute.  

I think we'd crush the 2022 Russian army with Gulf War 1 technology and armament.  I'm talking absolutely eviscerate them.  

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I think we need to be arming Ukraine with tons of night vision and FLIR technology as well.  Since Russia has seemingly avoided the night, let the insurgency take over the night and destroy the Russians while they sleep.  It's brutal, but war is hell.  

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10 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

Had this very conversation with a lifelong friend.  He said it was gonna be just like 1939, and Poland. I said no it would take longer than that to take Ukraine, mostly because they do have an actual modernish army, the world was watching, we would supply them with common border supply routes.

That, and I have been suspect of actual Russian prowess for a long time. Their 800 lb gorilla is a nuclear arsenal. 

I thought they’d take Ukraine thru attrition then it would be like the US in Iraq.

I'm starting to get concerned about Russia's nuclear arsenal, not that they will use it but is it as poorly maintened/managed as their military equipment. If they are cutting corners in troop basics...

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I think it is hard for us to grasp the mindset since we are fortunate to live in a place that never gets invaded due to geographical and other reasons.

Try to picture Mexico being far more powerful than the USA and they invade us and start shelling Austin, SA, Dallas, and Houston. Would you be motivated to fight them and risk your life?

You’re asking if Texans would stand up to a much stronger Mexican military?

84e4f480a6bc5a933599a696fb33213f.gif
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Interesting development... Turkey confirms they've "officially" closed off the Dardanelles Straits citing the Montreaux Agreement:

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Turkey’s Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu both confirmed the closure of the Bosphorus and the Dardanelles to warship from any country, citing provisions in the 1936 Montreaux Convention, in separate remarks this evening. Cavusoglu had indicated that a formal decision on this matter was imminent late yesterday, which came a day after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had Tweeted out his thanks for Turkish authorities taking this step.

“When Turkey is not a belligerent in the conflict, it has the authority to restrict the passage of the warring states’ warships across the straits,” Cavusoglu said. Yesterday, he stressed that the Turkish government’s position was that what has been happening in Ukraine is a “war” rather than a “conflict,” a difference in language that matters when it comes to the Montreaux Convention.

 https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/44497/turkey-blocks-warships-from-sailing-into-the-black-sea-over-war-in-ukraine

However... that agreement also allows passage by countries that have ports on the Black Sea, and of course it's arguable that Russia has one in Sevastopol in Crimea.  Most analytical hacks I've seen believe that Turkey won't do anything to physically block the Russian ships going in/out, citing that reason.  But then why would Erdogan do it?  Furthermore, it's well-known that Erodgan has cozied up to Putin quite a bit in recent years, so this would seem strange.  And in fact, it probably won't change much - Russia will probably pass back/forth.  So the only thing left is that Turkey finds itself precariously perched in the middle - despite being a NATO country, they have clearly allied with Russia on many fronts (including trade and purchasing military weapons0, and probably don't want to be kicked out of NATO.  Possibly as well NATO's unified response has scared Erdogan a bit, so he made this "PSA".  I have doubts though as to whether it'll change much... Russian ships generally have passed through it to exercise muscle in the Mediterranean to "keep NATO down."  But since now that's gone, they wouldn't have much reason to cruise around.  

Still, you now have the prospect of a definitive military strategic move made by a NATO member, no matter how undependable, and Erdogan's use of "war" to invoke the Convention has to be a bit of a slap in Putin's face.  My guess is that unless Russia tries to shell Istanbul, not much will happen here.  But still...

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Fucking Men's Wearhouse cheap ass clothes. Backwards assholes can't even dress properly.

If I had his money, I am not sure if I would be in anything but a decade old hoodie or maybe those Coach Beard shiny pants.

I would probably have KRS-1/BDP behind me playing theme music.
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4 minutes ago, gmr548 said:


Yeah, it’s no secret that Russia is at the big boy table primarily because of its nuclear arsenal alone, not because of its comprehensive economic and military power.

For this reason I’m skeptical they can afford the long term costs of occupation/regime change with western supported resistance and aggressive economic sanctions. They’ll have backed themselves into a corner, especially if Finland and Sweden reconsider NATO - which Russia can beat its chest on as much as it wants, but they don’t have the capacity to threaten those countries given what they are having to invest in the Ukrainian invasion. They could be in a really rough spot this time next year.

I think the real winner here, geopolitically, is China. They’re going to be Russia’s only outside option and will be able to get very favorable terms when dealing with Russia because of that.

Yeah China is sitting back, and laughing at Russia, and taking notes. Will they go into Taiwan ?  No way IMO, Taiwan is a strategic interest to the US, and the rest of the world.

I think the economics sanctions on Russia should be pushed to the limits. Money talks, and BS walks here. Drive them back to the backward ass country they've always really been. 

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3 minutes ago, SquishMitten said:


You’re asking if Texans would stand up to a much stronger Mexican military?

84e4f480a6bc5a933599a696fb33213f.gif

Plus, Mexico played it much like Russia is now - they executed terrible military strategy, despite hugely superior numbers, plus they pulled their best general by a galaxy out and moved their worst one in.  Had the better guy stayed where he was needed (and was moved largely due to the jealousy of the shittier one), Mexico would have won and/or at least postponed the Americanization of Texas by a few decades.

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10 minutes ago, gmr548 said:


Yeah, it’s no secret that Russia is at the big boy table primarily because of its nuclear arsenal alone, not because of its comprehensive economic and military power.

For this reason I’m skeptical they can afford the long term costs of occupation/regime change with western supported resistance and aggressive economic sanctions. They’ll have backed themselves into a corner, especially if Finland and Sweden reconsider NATO - which Russia can beat its chest on as much as it wants, but they don’t have the capacity to threaten those countries given what they are having to invest in the Ukrainian invasion. They could be in a really rough spot this time next year.

I think the real winner here, geopolitically, is China. They’re going to be Russia’s only outside option and will be able to get very favorable terms when dealing with Russia because of that.

Russia is nothing more than a giant gas station.  No gas, no money, no russia

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3 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

Yeah China is sitting back, and laughing at Russia, and taking notes. Will they go into Taiwan ?  No way IMO, Taiwan is a strategic interest to the US, and the rest of the world.

I think the economics sanctions on Russia should be pushed to the limits. Money talks, and BS walks here. Drive them back to the backward ass country they've always really been. 

Plus I think the existence of Taiwan, while a irritating thorn in the side of the ChiComs, isn't the obsession that Putin has about Ukraine.  China is in no hurry, and prefers their more reasoned, longer goal - to become the #1 world economic, not military, power.  They can wait.

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Where this is bad for China is that they were stronger together with Russia on the world stage. Fri-enemies with similar goals to minimize the strength of the west. If/when Putin is out of power, IF Russia moves in a democratic path, then China is on an island. A very large island, but they become the main target for all the rest of the world to put in a box. 

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1 hour ago, TwiceHorn said:

I said it earlier, but I have kind of followed that issue over the years.  "Slat" armor, or skirts, spaced things like that are effective against primitive shaped-charge weapons like Panzerfaust, bazooka, RPG, but not so much against the more sophisticated AT weapons like Javelin and several predecessors.  They have dual-charge warheads, a first to defeat spaced or reactive armor, and a second to actually do the destruction.

Which is why reactive armor replaced it.  But yeah, it probably needs to be more closely spaced to have much hope of defeating even an RPG.

I brought that up dozens of pages ago, and got reminded sophisticated weapons like the Javelin detonate on top of the turret/overhead the vehicle.  And the slats on that Russian armor was definitely too far apart and haphazard to do any good anyways.  
 

Slats were part of urban upgrades for Abrams / etc specifically for old school RPGs used by insurgents…you don’t want to use reactive armor in a city or near infantry, so not sure it replaced slats so much as it was a compromise on cost and collateral damage.  
 

Unsure how a double charge warhead works against slat armor, maybe it breaks it up before impact/detonation or possibly the first charge blows it away.  Maybe there’s an expert here who knows. 

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He's talking about the onerous Treaty of Versailles provisions that played a huge part in the German mindset leading up to the second war.   

Yes, that was an external punitive action.

Norks and Russia face an internally created punitive action. More in line with telling your kid he will not get out of his room unless he apologizes to his mother. He controls his own fate.
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He's talking about the onerous Treaty of Versailles provisions that played a huge part in the German mindset leading up to the second war.   

Yes, that was an external punitive action.

Norks and Russia face an internally created punitive action. More in line with telling your kid he will not get out of his room unless he apologizes to his mother. He controls his own fate.
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