Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[Sbbruin 22145]

1 hour ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Yeah, but California's military readiness is filled with guys like @Sbbruin who can't even make a decent naoch.

Hey, I'm a master naoch maker

[Brisketexan 106952]

4 minutes ago, GabrielsHorn said:

The video is very much NSFL, so not going to include. Such needless suffering for a madman’s ego 

Edit:

also this

 

If any of y'all were under the illusion that this was going to end without stacks of innocent Ukrainian bodies, you need to get right with reality. 

This will get brutal.  It will get horrific.  Tens of thousands of people are going to die.  And it can't be stopped without triggering WWIII.

Putin is intent on murdering civilians and destroying cities, because it is the only military option he has left.  And here is the horrible, Machiavellian truth: that is EXACTLY how he loses.  When Putin becomes a war criminal on the world stage, there is no going back.  There is no saving him, or this gambit.  When this happens, his oligarch pals will know that the die is cast - stick with Putin, and lose everything.  Depose him, and save something.

3 minutes ago, Constant said:

 

This is one of our best hopes.  Not killing Russian soldiers, but putting them in desperate situations mostly tied to no supplies.  No fuel, no food, dwindling ammunition.  Comrades, your best move is to lay down your guns, shrug your soldiers, and ask Ukraine to provide you a hot meal and a warm place to sleep till this all blows over.

[The Dog 44862]

2 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Yeah, Maduro......I don't think you chose allies very well here.

Ummmmm.......yeah......have you maybe HEARD about the complete and total economic sanctions of functionally the entire country, and the fact that they're getting pantsed on the global stage as a military power?

Russia is pretty fucking far from stable.....

 

Your options going forward are:

1 -- Putin remains in power, severely weakened, damaged, and angry.

2 -- Putin deposed by oligarchs/leaders who have something to lose, and would like the bleeding to stop.

 

Option 2 is much preferable. Both options are incredibly dangerous.  As I mentioned a couple of days ago, it is the friction between THOSE two options that means that we're in one of the most dangerous moments in history.  Ukraine is the catalyst, but it's not where the peril is.  The peril is all within a mountain lair in the Urals.

Hey I'm agreeing with you. I just think it can get even worse than you have stated. I REALLY want him to be removed via Option 2 (or some type of action internally to usurp his power), but it's not going to be bloodless. Starving people are going to have to take to the streets with nothing to lose in order for any removal to occur. 

[Nicole44 22325]

Hopefully, this happens to Putin (except in a bunker on his knees and not in a submarine): 

 

please EU make Ukraine a member! 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦

[Judge Roybeanbag 11860]

33 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

WTF not. And not a peep from the OAS. So two of Latin America's most powerful presidents have sided with Russia. interesting is one is right wing and the other left wing. 

/no CR my immediate response would be full legalization of all drugs and guacamole in the US.  Fuck those guys.

[SL Xpress 7609]

1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

Yeah, Maduro......I don't think you chose allies very well here.

Ummmmm.......yeah......have you maybe HEARD about the complete and total economic sanctions of functionally the entire country, and the fact that they're getting pantsed on the global stage as a military power?

Russia is pretty fucking far from stable.....

 

Your options going forward are:

1 -- Putin remains in power, severely weakened, damaged, and angry.

2 -- Putin deposed by oligarchs/leaders who have something to lose, and would like the bleeding to stop.

 

Option 2 is much preferable. Both options are incredibly dangerous.  As I mentioned a couple of days ago, it is the friction between THOSE two options that means that we're in one of the most dangerous moments in history.  Ukraine is the catalyst, but it's not where the peril is.  The peril is all within a mountain lair in the Urals.

I agree completely. However, I do want to point out there was always a peril in letting Putin do whatever he wanted without serious consequences for fear of what he might do otherwise. The invasion of Ukraine is what woke people up to the idea of the price that could be, as well. 
 

As human beings we do not have the capacity to make logical risk/reward decisions because we’re not actually able to truly envision black swan events that could occur from our actions. Even with that, the message we have been sending to Putin, and anyone who would follow in his path, has been extraordinarily dangerous. 
 

You’re not exactly saying something different, so I don’t want to come across as arguing with you. I’m just saying that as scary as all of this is, allowing Putin to simply invade Ukraine with token resistance wasn’t feasible, either. 

[Trey3216 15452]

1 minute ago, ChiTownDoc said:

This. Murder-suicide is only way to go sadly.  

And it'll have to be way over the top.  8 lbs of C-4 could level a building.  You have to be pot committed and successful, otherwise Putin will push all his chips in.  

[SimonBolivar 11065]

4 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

We really need someone from his inner cabinet to walk into one of those meetings with about 8lbs of C-4 strapped to his stomach and pull the ripcord.  

Not it!

[RDCanecutter 26901]

41 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Time to cancel that trip to Cancun. 

MEXICO CITY, March 1 (Reuters) - Mexico will not impose any economic sanctions on Russia for invading Ukraine, Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador said on Tuesday.

He also criticized what he called censorship of Russian state-sponsored media by social media companies.

"We are not going to take any sort of economic reprisal because we want to have good relations with all the governments in the world," Lopez Obrador told a news conference.

AMLO Translation: "When I was performing my morning ritual of licking half-digested peanuts from the inner folds of various cartel leaders' asses, I overheard one of them on his phone thanking a nice Russian caballero for his planned investments in a new resort that will employ honest working Mexicans."

[Shady Ray 1633]

18 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

I don’t think you and I have the same view of how critical it is. Important? Absolutely. Critical? I don’t see it. 
 

And a Yeltsin style Russia which was basically overseeing a burgeoning criminal state would not be the threat to China you seem to be implying. I have no idea how they’d view it. Maybe they do see it as a threat in some way. But it’s not like China is about to expand their territory into Russia. 
 

“…but they are clearly able to extend significant lifelines to a Russia that would collapse otherwise. And that's my point.” 

Is that something to be concerned about? I mean, sure. They’re doing it right now. They do it with Iran and especially North Korea, too. I don’t understand how this changes the game in some way, so I guess I don’t understand why it’s a relevant point. But I’ll admit I could be missing something you’re trying to say. If that’s the case I apologize. 

It has nothing to do with expansion of territory into Russia. And it has nothing to do with us being concerned about it, as it doesn't change our calculus in doing whatever we can to secure the most liberal outcome possible that is consistent with our own geopolitical interest. A Putin regime replaced by another autocratic regime is simply extension of status quo for China.

 

It is simply an observational statement relating to China's deep interest in a continued relationship with a friendly and compliant Russia. A significant chunk of China's foreign policy is crafted around the idea of a friendly Russia. In addition to major reliance on cheap and reliable Russian energy, which is only set to significantly increase, the entirety of China's BRI depends on a cooperative, non-adverse regional power wrt to Central Asia and a hypothetically less-friendly successor state in Moscow can completely upend that initiative, given the economic/political influence that Russia has on Central Asia due to things like linguistic, cultural and economic ties. Putin and/or a similarly disposed sucessor regime is critical for that, so they will do everything possible to ensure that any successor regimes are not adverse to that. That's all I am saying.

 

No one said it changes any game. My post was not about any impact on us or anything for us to be concerned about. It was more of an observation on how China will have to play it and how they have to balance the pressing issues of not appearing too deeply complicit in enabling the goings on in Ukraine while also actively ensuring that nothing happens in a potential fallout in Moscow that will act adversely to their own interest.

[Nicole44 22325]

2 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

This. Murder-suicide is only way to go sadly.  

Well who wants to be the hero to save thousands upon thousands of lives. If I were close enough to do that I would even if it meant I wouldn’t survive. We need that person or another type of Miracle soon. I hope we are dropping pamphlets on those troops to scare them into abandoning their tanks and this bullshit battle on humanity. 

[miguelito 11507]

17 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

make them pay for every inch 

Ah yes, the South Austin's Mom Doctrine.

[Nicole44 22325]

Mass walkout on Geneva as Russia’s FM speaks on Human Rights fuck ya! Suck shit you dickhead! Again…SIAP! I am trying to keep up but work is taking most of my ability to read along. Slava Ukraini!

 

 

[RDCanecutter 26901]

38 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

WTF not. And not a peep from the OAS. So two of Latin America's most powerful presidents have sided with Russia. interesting is one is right wing and the other left wing. 

Odd that both Bolsonaro and AMLO are cool with a world where you can invade a country just because you say its leaders are corrupt.

[Shady Ray 1633]

42 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

But there’s huge potential upside for the Chinese in that the weaker Putin is, the more favorable terms for the Chinese to plunder their natural resources and potentially turn the Russians into a client state. 

Exactly. China needs the weakest Putin possible, so that they can gain as much control as possible over Russia, without him becoming so weak that his autocratic regime falls and is replaced by one that is more liberal in its leanings.

Edited March 1, 2022 by Shady Ray

['stache 22145]

Maybe a strange thought, but is this partly because Putin is old and thinks like an old person? Bombing a country to take its stuff seems so ancient and nonsensical these days (I know its also about NATO's border but that feels silly too). The proxy wars after WWII were premised on economic ideology (capitalism vs. communism), weren't fought between the actual powers directly, and generally went poorly (I thought the world learned some lessons there). The wars in the middle east always felt strange and half hearted, again not involving the powers directly, and without the huge losses of life that current reports seem to indicate have occurred in such a short amount of time. Economic sanctions and isolation, and cyber attacks, feel like what future wars would be like, or use of drones, and without needing to target civilians. This just feels so strange and unexplainably ancient. I know Putin is a monster, is a tyrant, etc., etc., but he also just feels old, fighting war like his father taught him, without acknowledging the different in todays world (primarily how the death and destruction are being broadcast in real time with cameras on pretty much every person). It seemed for a time that he had caught up relying on disinformation and cyber campaigns, but is now just using tanks and shells like its 1942. I'm no war historian though and only recently dug into the details of WWI and WWII. This whole this is just fucked regardless.

Edited March 1, 2022 by 'stache

[InkaUtexas 26919]

1 minute ago, RDCanecutter said:

Odd that both Bolsonaro and AMLO are cool with a world where you can invade a country just because you say its leaders are corrupt.

Hey Colombia, lets talk about Maracaibo. 

[Trey3216 15452]

2 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

I agree completely. However, I do want to point out there was always a peril in letting Putin do whatever he wanted without serious consequences for fear of what he might do otherwise. The invasion of Ukraine is what woke people up to the idea of the price that could be, as well. 
 

As human beings we do not have the capacity to make logical risk/reward decisions because we’re not actually able to truly envision black swan events that could occur from our actions. Even with that, the message we have been sending to Putin, and anyone who would follow in his path, has been extraordinarily dangerous. 
 

You’re not exactly saying something different, so I don’t want to come across as arguing with you. I’m just saying that as scary as all of this is, allowing Putin to simply invade Ukraine with token resistance wasn’t feasible, either. 

We absolutely have to capacity to make logical risk/reward decisions, even involving Black Swan events.  Our problem is that we tend to try to fit everything prettily into mathematical models designed to solve for optimums and quite frequently underscore the 'constant' applied to the negative repercussions of a given situation.  

For instance, the minute Wall St started hiring quantum physicists to build derivative models was the minute the '08 Financial Bomb started.  The math works, the model works they thought.  Well, thousands of economists, who were equally adept at math told them that the math didn't work because they horrifically undervalued a constant in the equation:  Human Fucking Nature.  

[956 Worldwide 35598]

This shit is crazy and confirms what we’ve been talking about— Russian soldiers have no clue WTF they are doing.  I’d say this is the type of goat rope you get when you combine a delusional and isolated leader with a spy’s idea that secret squirrel shit is the answer to everything. Spies don’t make good strategic thinkers.

 

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3873]

2 hours ago, Cheeseweasel said:

It's not just Putin pulling the strings. He's surrounded and backed by people he's made rich and powerful. They won't turn on him quickly, if at all.

Wait until their women find out they are never leaving Russia again.

[RDCanecutter 26901]

41 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Meanwhile we were doing shit in the first Gulf War that makes these Russians look like fucking amateurs.  

And I came across an article that collected photos from damaged/abandoned Russian vehicles, and they aren’t seeing GPS devices, or even mounts for them.  Toss that onto the pile of things like a lack of night vision gear and lack of optics on rifles.  

Pre-GPS, everyone in my platoon had access to a map and the training to read it and use it to call in fire. That put us, from 18-year-old Private on up, roughly on par with a Soviet Lieutenant.

[SL Xpress 7609]

7 minutes ago, Shady Ray said:

It has nothing to do with expansion of territory into Russia. And it has nothing to do with us being concerned about it, as it doesn't change our calculus in doing whatever we can to secure the most liberal outcome possible that is consistent with our own geopolitical interest. A Putin regime replaced by another autocratic regime is simply extension of status quo for China.

 

It is simply an observational statement relating to China's deep interest in a continued relationship with a friendly and compliant Russia. A significant chunk of China's foreign policy is crafted around the idea of a friendly Russia. In addition to major reliance on cheap and reliable Russian energy, which is only set to significantly increase, the entirety of China's BRI depends on a cooperative, non-adverse regional power wrt to Central Asia and a hypothetically less-friendly successor state in Moscow can completely upend that initiative, given the economic/political influence that Russia has on Central Asia due to things like linguistic, cultural and economic ties. Putin and/or a similarly disposed sucessor regime is critical for that, so they will do everything possible to ensure that any successor regimes are not adverse to that. That's all I am saying.

 

No one said it changes any game. My post was not about any impact on us or anything for us to be concerned about. It was more of an observation on how China will have to play it and how they have to balance the pressing issues of not appearing too deeply complicit in enabling the goings on in Ukraine while also actively ensuring that nothing happens in a potential fallout in Moscow that will act adversely to their own interest.

I guess I’m trying to envision a scenario where a new government in Russia changes its stance on China so drastically as to make the calculus here a dramatic one. I’m not coming up with any. 

[Nivek 17417]

9 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Your options going forward are:

1 -- Putin remains in power, severely weakened, damaged, and angry.

2 -- Putin deposed by oligarchs/leaders who have something to lose, and would like the bleeding to stop.

 

Option 2 is much preferable. Both options are incredibly dangerous.  As I mentioned a couple of days ago, it is the friction between THOSE two options that means that we're in one of the most dangerous moments in history.  Ukraine is the catalyst, but it's not where the peril is.  The peril is all within a mountain lair in the Urals.

Putin might stay in power, but sanctions will remain.  Once the situation stabilized, the terrorist activities in Moscow will kick up as revenge.

Putin might retire or fall out of a window.   Oligarchs will try to dump the gold/commodities they bought to insulate them from the sanctions when they need it, or ride it out for a period of time.  A few drunk generals that ChickenSandwich has posters of above his bed will take the blame as well a few select commanders.   Oligarchs will buy the 2nd leader after putin.   Brisket will go nuts and kick the jukebox only to find that the fucker got stuck on Milkshake and then we will all accusingly look for the fucker who picked that song, and when I crack under the pressure, I'll lash out at you Jethro Tull and fans and a ledge war will begin.  

[atomheartbevo 90663]

3 minutes ago, 'stache said:

Maybe a strange thought, but is this partly because Putin is old and thinks like an old person? Bombing a country to take its stuff seems so ancient and nonsensical these days (I know its also about NATO's border but that feels silly too).

He also thinks like a KGB officer, which partly explains keeping everybody in the dark.  

[Constant 6888]

 

[956 Worldwide 35598]

2 minutes ago, RDCanecutter said:

Pre-GPS, everyone in my platoon had access to a map and the training to read it and use it to call in fire. That put us, from 18-year-old Private on up, roughly on par with a Soviet Lieutenant.

And we aren’t even talking about South Africa like such as.

[SimonBolivar 11065]

 

They're starting to tie looters to poles now.

 

 

 

Edited March 1, 2022 by SimonBolivar

[MillerEP 30907]

 

[Sbbruin 22145]

15 minutes ago, GabrielsHorn said:

His entire twitter right now is filled with some interesting updates, but here’s a few of the ones that are interesting to me. 
 

 

What puzzles me is: this column is restricted to this road as most of the vehicles would get stuck trying to go off road.  Can't the Ukranians blow massive craters in the road ahead of them to stop/slow the advance?

[Hawndoh 2409]

Half those vehicles are probably already stopped which is why it is moving so slowly.

I wonder what percentage of those vehicles are either out of fuel, broke down, or abandoned. 

[utee94 16091]

1 minute ago, Sbbruin said:

What puzzles me is: this column is restricted to this road as most of the vehicles would get stuck trying to go off road.  Can't the Ukranians blow massive craters in the road ahead of them to stop/slow the advance?

Yes, you'd think they could.  And if they haven't, well then you'd think there'd be a reason for that as well.

[Trey3216 15452]

4 minutes ago, RDCanecutter said:

Pre-GPS, everyone in my platoon had access to a map and the training to read it and use it to call in fire. That put us, from 18-year-old Private on up, roughly on par with a Soviet Lieutenant.

Think about the scenes in Saving Private Ryan and BoB where our paratroopers knew roughly where they were even though they were miles off course.  We have always been a very geographically/cartographically prepared military.  

[MillerEP 30907]

 

[BabaYaga 15629]

29 minutes ago, Snacks said:

A big part of this "war" is about oil & gas... much like most of the rest of them have been.

 

What does this even mean?  This not about gaining resources, but rather bypassing other import options and continuing a direct line of financial funding to the adversary we are in conflict with?  Where do you think this money we pay them goes?  Better schools and roads?  We are directly financing a part of the military machine we are engaged with trying to stop

[GabrielsHorn 2246]

The Daily today is just incredibly depressing. The human cost of this war is going to get depressing. The quick version of the story starts at 30 minutes. 
 

Also asks a good questions - what do you do in this situation? It’s easy to say fight for us, but those who are living it are literally making a choice between life and death. 

Edited March 1, 2022 by GabrielsHorn

[The Dog 44862]

2 minutes ago, Constant said:

 

Turn this motherfucker on the Russians. Bring the pain.

2 minutes ago, Sbbruin said:

What puzzles me is: this column is restricted to this road as most of the vehicles would get stuck trying to go off road.  Can't the Ukranians blow massive craters in the road ahead of them to stop/slow the advance?

They're focusing their efforts on the food and fuel supplies. They don' have to blow up the armor - the gear is running out of gas and the troops out of food. They're literally "starving them out". 

[Cheeseweasel 26442]

5 minutes ago, Nivek said:

Putin might stay in power, but sanctions will remain

Unfortunately, there are enough asshole nations in the world to buy his oil. I'm looking at you Mexico.

[BachelorTrek 3322]

12 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

We really need someone from his inner cabinet to walk into one of those meetings with about 8lbs of C-4 strapped to his stomach and pull the ripcord.  

"Here, pull my finger!"

 

[Trey3216 15452]

5 minutes ago, Nivek said:

Putin might stay in power, but sanctions will remain.  Once the situation stabilized, the terrorist activities in Moscow will kick up as revenge.

Putin might retire or fall out of a window.   Oligarchs will try to dump the gold/commodities they bought to insulate them from the sanctions when they need it, or ride it out for a period of time.  A few drunk generals that ChickenSandwich has posters of above his bed will take the blame as well a few select commanders.   Oligarchs will buy the 2nd leader after putin.   Brisket will go nuts and kick the jukebox only to find that the fucker got stuck on Milkshake and then we will all accusingly look for the fucker who picked that song, and when I crack under the pressure, I'll lash out at you Jethro Tull and fans and a ledge war will begin.  

We'll just put you in a ring with a few big dogs and a chimp and watch you fight your way out of it, William Badass  

[Sbbruin 22145]

Just now, The Dog said:

Turn this motherfucker on the Russians. Bring the pain.

They're focusing their efforts on the food and fuel supplies. They don' have to blow up the armor - the gear is running out of gas and the troops out of food. They're literally "starving them out". 

I'm not suggesting blowing up the armor.  I'm saying blow up the roads and restrict access that way.

[Constant 6888]

 

[The Dog 44862]

Just now, Sbbruin said:

I'm not suggesting blowing up the armor.  I'm saying blow up the roads and restrict access that way.

IIRC they have been doing that which is part of the reason why they are stuck.

[Sawbonz 28234]

Apparently one of my posts triggered a mod. I’m on my phone so I can’t figure out which post. 

[InkaUtexas 26919]

2 minutes ago, The Dog said:

Turn this motherfucker on the Russians. Bring the pain.

 

Hey, I think I saw something about a stopped convoy. 

[MillerEP 30907]

 

[Cheeseweasel 26442]

6 minutes ago, SimonBolivar said:

 

They're starting to tie looters to poles now.

 

 

 

Those Shriners are hard core.

[Captainant 28574]

3 minutes ago, Hawndoh said:

Half those vehicles are probably already stopped which is why it is moving so slowly.

I wonder what percentage of those vehicles are either out of fuel, broke down, or abandoned. 

There's been a bunch of chatter in OSINT that the color of the diesel smoke from the convoy is what engines look like before they die. I'm betting it's a combination of all those things

[956 Worldwide 35598]

3 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Think about the scenes in Saving Private Ryan and BoB where our paratroopers knew roughly where they were even though they were miles off course.  We have always been a very geographically/cartographically prepared military.  

Good maps used to be treated like state secrets. Not that showed military bases and things, but just political/topo maps.

But you don’t need a good map if the objective is “follow the highway to the nearest city, watch surrender ceremony, pick up flowers.”

Again, insane assumptions. 

[Shady Ray 1633]

4 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

I guess I’m trying to envision a scenario where a new government in Russia changes its stance on China so drastically as to make the calculus here a dramatic one. I’m not coming up with any. 

Right now, the likely scenarios are essentially none. However, 6, 8, 12, 24 months down the road after the fallout of the Russian economy completely melting down is felt, and people are isolated in what has essentially become a pariah state and a global embarassment, you have the climate for a lot of differen results beyond just like-for-like autocratic replacements. A lot can happen to change the mood of a populace during that time and there would be time for a lot of coordination to foment a lot of different movements, pro-democratic and otherwise, both internally and externally.

 

And I am not saying it is likely...I am saying it is absolutely something that China will be monitoring and doing what it can to prevent significant shifts. 

[BabaYaga 15629]

4 minutes ago, Sbbruin said:

I'm not suggesting blowing up the armor.  I'm saying blow up the roads and restrict access that way.

Yep.  We've seen how the mud impacts tracked vehicles.