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Eastwood

By Eastwood
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AUS-97HORN
AUS-97HORN

For the love of Christ woman,  stop posting the same fucking thing every 20 mins just to make your neurotic self feel better.     Bring something useful to the thread other than your inane babbli

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InkaUtexas
InkaUtexas

I volunteered today. Log/Admin role to replace people for 30-60 days. The operation is in the west, or should the Orcs win will be pulled back behind the NATO wall. Either way the humanitarian effort

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BillyGoatHill

BillyGoatHill 4421

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12 minutes ago, RDCanecutter said:

Pre-GPS, everyone in my platoon had access to a map and the training to read it and use it to call in fire. That put us, from 18-year-old Private on up, roughly on par with a Soviet Lieutenant.

At least you clarified !!😁

Knew one too many US LT.s like this.....

DSphLw_X4AMJesb.thumb.jpg.6387dddffa746d2bb9aa4cf8bc578857.jpg

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SL Xpress

SL Xpress 7609

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6 minutes ago, 'stache said:

Maybe a strange thought, but is this partly because Putin is old and thinks like an old person? Bombing a country to take its stuff seems so ancient and nonsensical these days (I know its also about NATO's border but that feels silly too). The proxy wars after WWII were premised on economic ideology (capitalism vs. communism), weren't fought between the actual powers directly, and generally went poorly (I thought the world learned some lessons there). The wars in the middle east always felt strange and half hearted, again not involving the powers directly, and without the huge losses of life that current reports seem to indicate have occurred in such a short amount of time. Economic sanctions and isolation, and cyber attacks, feel like what future wars would be like, or use of drones, and without needing to target civilians. This just feels so strange and unexplainably ancient. I know Putin is a monster, is a tyrant, etc., etc., but he also just feels old, fighting war like his father taught him, without acknowledging the different in todays world (primarily how the death and destruction are being broadcast in real time with cameras on pretty much every person. It seemed for a time that he had caught up relying on disinformation and cyber campaigns, but is now just using tanks and shells like its 1942. I'm no war historian though and only recently dug into the details of WWI and WWII. This whole this is just fucked regardless.

I guess I just view this as a younger generation’s quaint and naive view that we’ve somehow overcome evolution to become some kind of enlightened species that will never act on our baser impulses. 
 

Nuclear weapons and MAD meant the cost for engaging in WWII type behavior would mean the end of existence. If not for that, we would have seen a whole lot more large scale military engagements over the last 80 years. 
 

There will always be those among us who are naturally inclined to view might means right. It’s important when that happens to create massive consequences for those behaviors, not only to stop it in that particular instance, but to serve as a warning to others. Let’s say Putin gets deposed and someone less likely to employ military might to achieve their aims takes power instead. It won’t mean the end to war ever more. It will just mean it has to come from someone else on down the road. It will still be a huge blessing. 
 

My apologies for the pedantic tone, but I find this mindset extraordinarily dangerous. 
 

Shoot, there are plenty of people around the world who see the US as evil for engaging in what they see as very similar behavior to what we’re accusing Putin of. I don’t agree, but there is something to the idea it’s a matter of perspective. If you have power, there is always a tendency to use it to your advantage while justifying it. It’s how things work. 

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CooterBrown

CooterBrown 18289

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Posted
Good maps used to be treated like state secrets. Not that showed military bases and things, but just political/topo maps.
But you don’t need a good map if the objective is “follow the highway to the nearest city, watch surrender ceremony, pick up flowers.”
Again, insane assumptions. 

This is why the vector street map data in China still doesn’t align with the satellite imagery.

Which is stupid because our military maps all the streets, buildings, infrastructure, etc. in target countries themselves so they don’t rely on public sources.
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SL Xpress

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6 minutes ago, Shady Ray said:

Right now, the likely scenarios are essentially none. However, 6, 8, 12, 24 months down the road after the fallout of the Russian economy completely melting down is felt, and people are isolated in what has essentially become a pariah state and a global embarassment, you have the climate for a lot of differen results beyond just like-for-like autocratic replacements. A lot can happen to change the mood of a populace during that time and there would be time for a lot of coordination to foment a lot of different movements, pro-democratic and otherwise, both internally and externally.

 

And I am not saying it is likely...I am saying it is absolutely something that China will be monitoring and doing what it can to prevent significant shifts. 

What are some things you think China can do?

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Foosters

Foosters 18286

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34 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

If any of y'all were under the illusion that this was going to end without stacks of innocent Ukrainian bodies, you need to get right with reality. 

This will get brutal.  It will get horrific.  Tens of thousands of people are going to die.  And it can't be stopped without triggering WWIII.

Putin is intent on murdering civilians and destroying cities, because it is the only military option he has left.  And here is the horrible, Machiavellian truth: that is EXACTLY how he loses.  When Putin becomes a war criminal on the world stage, there is no going back.  There is no saving him, or this gambit.  When this happens, his oligarch pals will know that the die is cast - stick with Putin, and lose everything.  Depose him, and save something.

 

Are people saying otherwise?

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MillerEP

MillerEP 30907

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1 minute ago, BachelorTrek said:

4 government overthrows are harder than just 1---that's Putin's plan for subdividing Ukraine, so that they can never get the whole country back intact.

I think based on the key in the top right corner, it's more of military AOs than it is how they want to divide the country. It actually looks more like they want all of Ukraine, and will station 4 divisions permanently in those 4 zones.

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gmr548

gmr548 16702

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This is one of our best hopes.  Not killing Russian soldiers, but putting them in desperate situations mostly tied to no supplies.  No fuel, no food, dwindling ammunition.  Comrades, your best move is to lay down your guns, shrug your soldiers, and ask Ukraine to provide you a hot meal and a warm place to sleep till this all blows over.

I liked the Latvian Foreign Minister’s idea of offering asylum in the west to every Russian soldier that defects. Take their weapons and gear, send them on their way.
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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 106952

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28 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

I agree completely. However, I do want to point out there was always a peril in letting Putin do whatever he wanted without serious consequences for fear of what he might do otherwise. The invasion of Ukraine is what woke people up to the idea of the price that could be, as well. 
 

As human beings we do not have the capacity to make logical risk/reward decisions because we’re not actually able to truly envision black swan events that could occur from our actions. Even with that, the message we have been sending to Putin, and anyone who would follow in his path, has been extraordinarily dangerous. 
 

You’re not exactly saying something different, so I don’t want to come across as arguing with you. I’m just saying that as scary as all of this is, allowing Putin to simply invade Ukraine with token resistance wasn’t feasible, either. 

We are in total agreement on this.

Perhaps I should have added an option 3 -- let Putin get away with whatever he wanted.  Which is, of course, unacceptable (and perhaps should have been back when he annexed Crimea, but nobody was really positioned to do a lot about it, other than sanctions....and I think we're seeing that only sanctions AND military resistance together is an effective response.

So, we are dealing with a dangerous fuckstick.  There are no good, low-risk options.  There are plenty of times in life where you have to choose from among several options, all of them very sub-optimal.  This is one of those times.  So, fucking do it.  There's no running away from reality, so make the best choice you can and execute.  And I think we're doing that.....and yes, it's still dangerous as fuck and terrifying.

18 minutes ago, Nivek said:

Putin might stay in power, but sanctions will remain.  Once the situation stabilized, the terrorist activities in Moscow will kick up as revenge.

Putin might retire or fall out of a window.   Oligarchs will try to dump the gold/commodities they bought to insulate them from the sanctions when they need it, or ride it out for a period of time.  A few drunk generals that ChickenSandwich has posters of above his bed will take the blame as well a few select commanders.   Oligarchs will buy the 2nd leader after putin.   Brisket will go nuts and kick the jukebox only to find that the fucker got stuck on Milkshake and then we will all accusingly look for the fucker who picked that song, and when I crack under the pressure, I'll lash out at you Jethro Tull and fans and a ledge war will begin.  

yes-no.gif

12 minutes ago, The Dog said:

Turn this motherfucker on the Russians. Bring the pain.

They're focusing their efforts on the food and fuel supplies. They don' have to blow up the armor - the gear is running out of gas and the troops out of food. They're literally "starving them out". 

Thisthisthis.  Remember us bombing the refineries at Ploesti?  Remember the German army being largely horse drawn at the end of the war?  I don't care how many tanks and rifles you have.  If you have no fuel and ammo, they are just paperweights.  If your army has no logistical support, you just turned soldiers into starving refugees with no transport.

They don't have to kill Russians to win.  They just have to neuter them.

3 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

^ Morale still high.

 

 

Y'all hunters around here.  You know that feeling when you're heading out to the sunflower field and see clouds of dove working it, or you're setting out your duck decoys before shooting time, and the ducks are already buzzing your spread relentlessly?  That giddy feeling of "holy shit, just stay cool, aim well, and we'll limit out in 10 minutes?"

That's the vibe we're getting from Ukrainians with anti-armor weapons.  It is a target-rich environment.

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 106952

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3 minutes ago, Foosters said:

Are people saying otherwise?

I think there's a fair amount of wishcasting about the success of the Ukrainian defense.  They're battering the hell out of the Russians, but the Russians have too many horses - they're going to inflict some savage pain.

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BabaYaga

BabaYaga 15629

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1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

You know that feeling when you're heading out to the sunflower field and see clouds of dove working it, or you're setting out your duck decoys before shooting time, and the ducks are already buzzing your spread relentlessly?  That giddy feeling of "holy shit, just stay cool, aim well, and we'll limit out in 10 minutes?"

Ducks don't shoot back and have thermobaric weapons that can level whole city blocks housing civilians...

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SL Xpress

SL Xpress 7609

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27 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

We absolutely have to capacity to make logical risk/reward decisions, even involving Black Swan events.  Our problem is that we tend to try to fit everything prettily into mathematical models designed to solve for optimums and quite frequently underscore the 'constant' applied to the negative repercussions of a given situation.  

For instance, the minute Wall St started hiring quantum physicists to build derivative models was the minute the '08 Financial Bomb started.  The math works, the model works they thought.  Well, thousands of economists, who were equally adept at math told them that the math didn't work because they horrifically undervalued a constant in the equation:  Human Fucking Nature.  

You and I don’t agree about the ‘08 Financial Bomb and its root causes. And if there’s anything economists do a terrible job of, it’s quantifying human nature. 
 

And, bottom line, we don’t agree about the human capacity for taking into account worst case scenarios with a negligible chance of occurring. There are plenty of studies that document it, actually. 

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Sawbonz

Sawbonz 28234

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Posted
1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

I think there's a fair amount of wishcasting about the success of the Ukrainian defense.  They're battering the hell out of the Russians, but the Russians have too many horses - they're going to inflict some savage pain.

If the estimates are correct they’ve already deployed 80% of the ground forces allotted for the invasion. Their regular army is only 900K. How much of the remainder can they tap before it becomes a serious national security problem for them? Many of their “republics” hate them. Finland is right next door.
 

As bad as their regulars suck I can’t imagine what their reserves look like. So they even have uniforms and weapons for them?

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15452

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5 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

We are in total agreement on this.

Perhaps I should have added an option 3 -- let Putin get away with whatever he wanted.  Which is, of course, unacceptable (and perhaps should have been back when he annexed Crimea, but nobody was really positioned to do a lot about it, other than sanctions....and I think we're seeing that only sanctions AND military resistance together is an effective response.

So, we are dealing with a dangerous fuckstick.  There are no good, low-risk options.  There are plenty of times in life where you have to choose from among several options, all of them very sub-optimal.  This is one of those times.  So, fucking do it.  There's no running away from reality, so make the best choice you can and execute.  And I think we're doing that.....and yes, it's still dangerous as fuck and terrifying.

yes-no.gif

Thisthisthis.  Remember us bombing the refineries at Ploesti?  Remember the German army being largely horse drawn at the end of the war?  I don't care how many tanks and rifles you have.  If you have no fuel and ammo, they are just paperweights.  If your army has no logistical support, you just turned soldiers into starving refugees with no transport.

They don't have to kill Russians to win.  They just have to neuter them.

Y'all hunters around here.  You know that feeling when you're heading out to the sunflower field and see clouds of dove working it, or you're setting out your duck decoys before shooting time, and the ducks are already buzzing your spread relentlessly?  That giddy feeling of "holy shit, just stay cool, aim well, and we'll limit out in 10 minutes?"

That's the vibe we're getting from Ukrainians with anti-armor weapons.  It is a target-rich environment.

This whole situation is going to be entered in the Game Theory textbooks early chapter on Prisoner's Dilemma for the foreseeable future.  

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 106952

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Posted
3 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

Ducks don't shoot back and have thermobaric weapons that can level whole city blocks housing civilians...

And soldiers in the field either aren't thinking in that many dimensions, or....they're thinking that every duck they take out is one less duck firing such weapons at their people.

Those are some motivated fucking duck hunters out there.

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Shady Ray

Shady Ray 1633

Posted
Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

What are some things you think China can do?

Off the top of my head, China can agree to integrate Russia's System for Transfer of Financial Messages with its own Cross-Border Interbank Payment System to facilitate easier payments to Russia, which will help to minimize the impact to some degree to the SWIFT sanctions. It can also exert massive amounts of pressure on countries across the Global South and Asia who depend on trade relations with China to use the system, as well. It would be de-dollarization on speed, of course, which China would need to manage in accordance with its own strategic goals.

 

It can aggressively utilize its unparalleled access to raw materials and manufacturing to eliminate some of the fallout of Russia being cut off from much of the world's technology markets. It can directly help Russia prop up the Ruble, as it has done in the past, as recently as 2014. It can lend in massive amounts. It can exert a ton of pressure on a variety of state actors to stay out of the sanctions game, which it has an enormous capacity to do. I can go on and on.

 

It doesn't mean they WILL do these things...but they can. And it again goes to the fine line that I originally discussed of allowing Russia to weaken as much as possible without killing the Golden Goose that can provide incredible amounts of raw materials and energy at an easy, discounted price.

Edited by Shady Ray
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Trey3216

Trey3216 15452

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Posted
4 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

You and I don’t agree about the ‘08 Financial Bomb and its root causes. And if there’s anything economists do a terrible job of, it’s quantifying human nature. 
 

And, bottom line, we don’t agree about the human capacity for taking into account worst case scenarios with a negligible chance of occurring. There are plenty of studies that document it, actually. 

I think taking a mathematician's view of a situation alongside a sociological decision making tree is much better suited for real world scenarios than one trying to land a rocket on Mars.  

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