Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[Zonahorn 8,079]

1 minute ago, JesusSweatDuck said:

What really happens if they default?  Not like JP Morgan can seize more assets.

It means interest rates are going to be astronomical in Russia

[South Austin 52,519]

2 minutes ago, JesusSweatDuck said:

What really happens if they default?  Not like JP Morgan can seize more assets.

Debtor's prison, I think.

[Bevo 13,579]

4 minutes ago, JesusSweatDuck said:

What really happens if they default?  Not like JP Morgan can seize more assets.

Yeah, that auditor is going to need hazard pay.

[Skipper 6,136]

Just now, SimonBolivar said:

You can't really fake a good economy even in a vacuum.

If these sanctions hit as hard as it seems like they might, presumably with a lot of even unknown reactions from the private sector voluntarily shutting down business, put me on the list of concerned regarding retaliation.  I also hope it can be unwound relatively quickly and we are making that known to the people that could instigate a coup.  Because more and more it seems like that is the only way out of this mess.

[JerrysJheriCurl 977]

5 minutes ago, JesusSweatDuck said:

What really happens if they default?  Not like JP Morgan can seize more assets.

Maybe they can get some of that Farrow Tech IPO. 

[BabaYaga 15,301]

 

 

[Zonahorn 8,079]

1 minute ago, Skipper said:

If these sanctions hit as hard as it seems like they might, presumably with a lot of even unknown reactions from the private sector voluntarily shutting down business, put me on the list of concerned regarding retaliation.  I also hope it can be unwound relatively quickly and we are making that known to the people that could instigate a coup.  Because more and more it seems like that is the only way out of this mess.

The quickest and easiest way for all this to stop is for Russia to stop their invasion

[Guest Lobo]

So if wealthy Russians are going to start having their fixed income investments defaulting.  And presumably their domestic equities aren’t doing great either.  Does that mean they may start calling in liquidity options on investments in privately held  United States corporations?  I’m just asking for a friend.  you don’t know his family, he goes to a different high school

Edited March 2, 2022 by Lobo

[SL Xpress 7,516]

6 minutes ago, JesusSweatDuck said:

What really happens if they default?  Not like JP Morgan can seize more assets.

Throughout history there have been many sovereigns who didn’t pay their debts. 
 

The number one issue they always have is when they need to borrow more money. Don’t underestimate the consequence of that. It’s crippling. 

[SL Xpress 7,516]

3 minutes ago, Zonahorn said:

The quickest and easiest way for all this to stop is for Russia to stop their invasion

And the quickest - probably only - way for the invasion to stop is through a coup. Hence his post. 

[Skipper 6,136]

3 minutes ago, Zonahorn said:

The quickest and easiest way for all this to stop is for Russia to stop their invasion

Well yeah.  And it's going to take a coup to do that.  Zero chance Putin admits he was wrong.

[Parliament 14,260]

3 minutes ago, Lobo said:

So if wealthy Russians are going to start having their fixed income investments defaulting.  And presumably their domestic equities aren’t doing great either.  Does that mean they may start calling in liquidity options on investments in privately held  United States corporations?  I’m just asking for a friend.  you don’t know his family, he goes to a different high school

Are they able to get that money back into Russia?  I don't know.

[Zonahorn 8,079]

Just now, Skipper said:

Well yeah.  And it's going to take a coup to do that.  Zero chance Putin admits he was wrong.

 

Just now, SL Xpress said:

And the quickest - probably only - way for the invasion to stop is through a coup. Hence his post. 

I agree, I'm not sniping

[Guest Lobo]

Getting money into Russia is like getting Coke into Mexico.  It is not a fucking problem.   That many billionaires however liquidating that many assets that quickly is a big fucking problem .   And not for them

[pops 7,003]

Just now, Lobo said:

Getting money into Russia is like getting Coke into Mexico.  It is not a fucking problem.   That many billionaires however liquidating that many assets that quickly is a big fucking problem .   And not for them

Dumb question amnesty... aren't those holdings supposed to be frozen...or is the list still the same one put out a few days ago by treasury that only includes a select few? 

[Zonahorn 8,079]

 

[SL Xpress 7,516]

Just now, Skipper said:

Well yeah.  And it's going to take a coup to do that.  Zero chance Putin admits he was wrong.

Or can. He’s in a precarious position if he shows weakness right now. 
 

He could go the classic abuser route, “Hey baby. C’mon. It was just a joke.” or “I’ve never loved anyone like I love you, Ukie. I promise to never ever hit/invade you again, baby. l’ll make it up to you with all the oil and gas you need. I loooove you! Let’s have makeup sex!”

[Skipper 6,136]

All I know is I'm starting to have that same feeling I had in late January and February 2020 with respect to the pandemic.  Where most Americans are walking around worrying about their daily stupid shit and I was cashing out of equity positions.

[FartingMonk 3,608]

2 minutes ago, pops said:

Dumb question amnesty... aren't those holdings supposed to be frozen...or is the list still the same one put out a few days ago by treasury that only includes a select few? 

It's really hard to freeze 600 billion dollars.  

[Skipper 6,136]

1 minute ago, SL Xpress said:

 

He could go the classic abuser route, “Hey baby. C’mon. It was just a joke.” or “I’ve never loved anyone like I love you, Ukie. I promise to never ever hit/invade you again, baby. l’ll make it up to you with all the oil and gas you need. I loooove you! Let’s have makeup sex!”

We can hope!

[SL Xpress 7,516]

2 minutes ago, Skipper said:

All I know is I'm starting to have that same feeling I had in late January and February 2020 with respect to the pandemic.  Where most Americans are walking around worrying about their daily stupid shit and I was cashing out of equity positions.

Defense contractors felt like a good play. That’s the direction I went with. 

[Zonahorn 8,079]

The Russians have taken as many casualties in a week as we did for all of Iraq and Afghanistan combined.

[Guest Lobo]

5 minutes ago, pops said:

Dumb question amnesty... aren't those holdings supposed to be frozen...or is the list still the same one put out a few days ago by treasury that only includes a select few? 

For liquid equities fixed income and cash equivalents, those are much easier to freeze particularly if the market makers are in the United States or EU countries.  Where it’s  much harder to freeze is when some Russian oligarch owns 10% of a US real estate asset or 10% of a US oil and gas asset or privately held US corporation in some other venture.   How do you freeze something that’s privately held that is not liquid where the Russian in question is not a plurality owner??  Without fucking over the rest of the investors in it?

The fact that in the last 72 hours the secondary market for private placement investments held by Russian investors in the United States has gone up by an order of magnitude.  That you cannot freeze In the conventional manner in which we understand the asset term

[Laxtonto 12,090]

I’m really curious if the chans haven’t gone through the various reconnaissance photo showing damaged tanks, vehicles, etc and actually applied to old school satellite/photo reconnaissance formulas used in prior engagements and tried to come up with a better best guess of current casualties.
I know some of the multipliers/weights may be a bit out of date with the newer technology, but I would love to see a real ballpark not one released by either side.

[Wulaw Horn 19,097]

2 minutes ago, Skipper said:

All I know is I'm starting to have that same feeling I had in late January and February 2020 with respect to the pandemic.  Where most Americans are walking around worrying about their daily stupid shit and I was cashing out of equity positions.

I was on the pandemic from December 2019 b/c of this board and following the bond markets and traders and the like for my business.  I told the wife to load up on 4-6 week supply in mid February, just in case. She thought I was a nut. Then it happened and she thought I could predict the future.  I was like no- just make some common sense preparations b/c while I'm not super afraid of this covid thing I know how mass hysteria works- that was my line at the time.

This could go the same way.  I don't think I'd be super comfortable being exposed to the greater market right now- b/c there is a shitload of uncertainty. I know the pros say you can't time the market but even if this thing goes swimmingly in the end game (I wouldn't bet my money that way) the fed is still looking to weaken the economy/create a recession going forward into the future to battle inflation.  I know the stock market got a big bump today on the idea that the fed would not go 50 basis points and might not even go 25 basis points at their March meeting, but that hike is coming at some point in time regardless of Russia.  I'd be looking to have a lot more cash on hand than being long equity positions over the next 3-12 months and see what happens with this conflict and inflation. I think your head is in the right place. I can't imagine we look back at the end of the year and call you an idiot for getting out of the market on 3/2/22 and say "look at that- you missed out on a 10,000 point jump in the dow you fool"

[SL Xpress 7,516]

1 minute ago, Skipper said:

We can hope!

Well, I may have been too subtle, but part of the metaphor is that guy never changes. 
 

Better to go full on Dixie Chicks and send Earl 6’ under. Which has been talked about ad nauseum on here, but there’s a reason. Just like you mentioned. 

[Zonahorn 8,079]

4 minutes ago, Laxtonto said:

I’m really curious if the chans haven’t gone through the various reconnaissance photo showing damaged tanks, vehicles, etc and actually applied to old school satellite/photo reconnaissance formulas used in prior engagements and tried to come up with a better best guess of current casualties.
I know some of the multipliers/weights may be a bit out of date with the newer technology, but I would love to see a real ballpark not one released by either side.

This guy has been trying (and failing) to keep track of Russian equipment losses.

 

EDIT: Holy shit that was a wall.

website; https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

Edited March 2, 2022 by Zonahorn

[FartingMonk 3,608]

9 hours ago, TXSG8R said:

The DoD transitioned to Risk Management Framework for Cyber 4 or 5 years ago, sounds like it’s based on the same NIST/CNNSI guidance. My program was in the first block of systems to switch over from DIACAP.  They gave us a 12 month timeline and it took almost 2 years to get our ATO. It was and is a nightmare on the DoD side to implement because of the diversity of systems and the gov’ts need to apply templates and standards which doesn’t fit everybody. One of the key parts of the NIST framework is tailoring controls, which of course the DoD wouldn’t allow.

RMF is pretty straight forward on the enterprise side, standard users on standard networks. On the tactical side things get squirrely fast. Our system was a command and control suite that flew around in the back of a Blackhawk, but got on the colored networks through comsat links.  Big army decreed anyone touching SIPR was immediately a high, high, med system. That meant we had untailored HHM controls applied to an ad hoc system, in a helicopter, in a tactical environment. Super fun. 

Controls are how you fix or mitigate a vulnerability, and they cover everything. Policy, physical security, logistics, auditing, budget, personnel, technical, etc.  IIRC our system had 1200ish controls, and within a control there can be up to 15 tasks.  Tailoring controls removes any that obviously don’t fit that system. You can’t remove it because it’s hard or you want to speed things up, but if a control says “the building will have a fire suppression system that activates within x seconds” and your system isn’t in a building, obviously you can tailor that out. That’s how it’s supposed to work, but again, DoD didn’t want systems purging controls that were hard and the volume of systems didn’t allow any real visibility from the top to approve/deny tailoring, so they just threw out the tailoring step entirely.  So back to the Blackhawk example, yep, I had to mitigate why my system didn’t have a fire suppression in the building that is a Blackhawk in my Plan of Actions & Milestones (POAM), which gets reviewed and updated quarterly.

One of the biggest strengths of RMF is closing all the “someone else is responsible for that control” loopholes that plagued DIACAP, and cybersecurity as a whole. On tactical systems we would say that a higher NOC did a bunch of stuff, and that the owning tactical unit was responsible for all the user level stuff, and wipe our hands of it even though we knew units rarely enforced passwords properly, or patched AV on schedule, etc. Now you have to show your work. If someone inherits a control, it flows up or down to their system and gets rolled into their evaluation as well. So if the unit gets evaluated and isn’t doing X controls, they fail, and that failure flows into your system and can trigger a failure for you as well. That’s the academic version of how it’s supposed to be. In reality the Army has realized it’s just too big and hard on the tactical side so there is a lot of leeway being given to systems and vulnerabilities are being left open because of budget (fix this new vuln now, but your budget was already set for the next 5 years and can’t be changed, good luck), or lack of oversight on the hundreds of potential systems, and thousands of implantations at the unit level. The elephant in the room is also on the logistics side.  Supply chain protection is a massive part of RMF, and practically impossible to achieve with foreign manufacturing, JIT logistics, and now Covid impacts to the supply chain.

I took the long way around to get to this question (for the NERC guys, shady just provided a convenient roll up). Is the NERC implementation pretty tight top to bottom, or do you have similar issues? I would think it’s much more standard wrt the network side (all one color network, pretty standard enterprise guidance, etc), but all the local control/access still leaves some big holes (giggity) to be exploited. Sloppy admin rights or password policies leads to elevated rights, which leads to attack vector, which leads to yada yada.  

I'm not an IT nerd but I think the big problem is access.  Everyone wants it.  With the military the general says you know I think I need access to that. IT guy says but why. BGeneral says because I'm the fucking general.  Then his little dog robbers demand the same thing. It's not different with NERC.  And you're absolutely right about the top down issue.  It's kind of like the sanctions thing. We are like we will have this crazy sanction structure but and then there is 100 pages of loop holes.  

[Reagan1k 3,024]

46 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

Some Uke got a new toy

 

Tell me more about the bullpup setup he already had.  

[Hate 20,112]

Where are these guys when we need them?

[staboner 4,984]

4 hours ago, Zonahorn said:

Going to fall just a bit short of that goal

you might want to look out that door Vlady

[OU Sucks 8,866]

9 minutes ago, Zonahorn said:

The Russians have taken as many casualties in a week as we did for all of Iraq and Afghanistan combined.

I wouldn't quite believe Ukrainian officials.  Has there even been proof of the two IL-76s or all the fighter jets that were shot down?  The only pic I saw of fixed wing aircraft debris was definitely from a season other than Winter.

Edited March 2, 2022 by OU Sucks

[SL Xpress 7,516]

41 minutes ago, troph said:

Why are you arguing with me? Where did I say they needed to say anything? Seriously find someone else. 

Is asking questions arguing? Have you been on a message board before? Do you not think discussion should be part of the dynamic? 
 

I will say you seem easily irritated. You do realize I’m not attacking you personally, don’t you?

[Skipper 6,136]

3 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

 I told the wife to load up on 4-6 week supply in mid February, just in case. She thought I was a nut. Then it happened and she thought I could predict the future.  

 

Same.  Primarily due to the Surly thread I went shopping some random Friday night about 3 weeks before it went to shit and my wife thought I was insane.  Until she didn't.  

[Scary Stranger 1,715]

3 minutes ago, Hate said:

Where are these guys when we need them?

 - Michael Scott

[TexEx15 17,543]

33 minutes ago, The Dog said:

 

 

This is a great tactic.

[Zonahorn 8,079]

1 minute ago, OU Sucks said:

I wouldn't quite believe Ukrainian officials.  Has there even been proof of the two IL-76s or all the fighter jets that were shot down?  The only pic I saw of fixed wing aircraft debris was definitely from a season other than Winter.

 

[Wulaw Horn 19,097]

4 minutes ago, Skipper said:

Same.  Primarily due to the Surly thread I went shopping some random Friday night about 3 weeks before it went to shit and my wife thought I was insane.  Until she didn't.  

So now, when I told my wife to do it again she told me I was crazy again.  I was like- people are freaked out. If it hits the point where people freak out much more it can cause a little panic. Why not do this now and if everything passes we will have enough beans and rice and pasta to eat for 2 years.  Our pantry is big enough (see that humble brag) what's the point of not being prepared when it's literally just such a minor thing. 

[staboner 4,984]

4 hours ago, Post Oak said:

I've totally heard of Eritrea before 30 minutes ago.  Promise

its only one of two countries that will tax you based on your citizenship, irrespective of where you are an actual tax resident. 

the other? good old America.

[Sbbruin 21,861]

3 hours ago, Enchubben said:

As of 2021 Reporters Without Borders considers the country to have the overall worst press freedom in the world, even lower than North Korea

[SL Xpress 7,516]

Just now, OU Sucks said:

I'm wouldn't quite believe Ukrainian officials.  Has there even been proof of the two IL-76s or all the fighter jets that were shot down?  The only pic I saw of fixed wing aircraft debris was definitely from a season other than Winter.

You act like antagonists would exaggerate the enemy’s war dead. Perish the thought!
 

The problem is media wants to keep score, but they can’t pull a number out of their ass. They have to cite someone. Since Ukraine official sources are the only ones putting numbers out there, that’s what they go with. Not to mention the social media frenzy. 
 

I’m with you. I don’t believe these numbers for a second. Especially when I saw how fanciful the Ukrainians were when the Donbas first separated 8 years ago.
 

Nonetheless I’m still affected by the reporting no matter how cynical I try to be. I can’t help it. The whole repeat a lie often enough by enough people and you’ll start to believe it sort of thing. In the absence of knowing what the truth is our minds abhor uncertainties, so we fill in with some kind of answer to bring solace. Kind of why religion and astrology exist. We want to know the why’s of things. When we don’t get to, or it’s not readily available, having something made up for us can be helpful to our state of mind in a way. Not advocating for it, but I’m self aware enough to recognize when I do it. Doesn’t necessarily change the dynamic, though. 

[JesusSweatDuck 17,784]

2 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

So now, when I told my wife to do it again she told me I was crazy again.  I was like- people are freaked out. If it hits the point where people freak out much more it can cause a little panic. Why not do this now and if everything passes we will have enough beans and rice and pasta to eat for 2 years.  Our pantry is big enough (see that humble brag) what's the point of not being prepared when it's literally just such a minor thing. 

We did the exact same thing on Sunday.  We actually just finished up the 50lb bag of rice we bought the last time.  We just make sure we buy stuff we'll eat anyways.

[Guest]

22 minutes ago, Skipper said:

All I know is I'm starting to have that same feeling I had in late January and February 2020 with respect to the pandemic.  Where most Americans are walking around worrying about their daily stupid shit and I was cashing out of equity positions.

So we should be loading up on equity positions?

Selling in late January/February 2020 turned out to be a really bad move unless you also knew that the market would bottom in late March.

No one fucking knows. You can't tell the future. We could all be vaporized in nuclear war in a week, or Vlad could decide to pull back in light of what's happening.

[utee94 15,832]

39 minutes ago, JesusSweatDuck said:

What really happens if they default?  Not like JP Morgan can seize more assets.

Payment will be exacted in the form of seized oligarch yachts and Adidas track suits.

[GabrielsHorn 2,186]

 

[MillerEP 30,491]

Russian bots working overtime. Gotta do a double take when posting now.

[JesusSweatDuck 17,784]

1 minute ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

So we should be loading up on equity positions?

Selling in late January/February 2020 turned out to be a really bad move unless you also knew that the market would bottom in late March.

No one fucking knows. You can't tell the future. We could all be vaporized in nuclear war in a week, or Vlad could decide to pull back in light of what's happening.

I pulled a little money out, just in case, but I'm by no means even approaching liquidating most of my investments.

[Ghost of LL 15,539]

1 hour ago, Zonahorn said:

More armor and mechanized losses incoming for the Russians

Oh, boy--it looks like we might get a good ol' Kesselschlacht!

[Chad Fuck 17,684]

7 minutes ago, Zonahorn said:

 

I asked the same question.  An Il-76 would leave a hell of a lot of debris.  Debris that would look really impressive on the innerwebz as a propaganda victory.  We haven't yet seen either one.  So I'll believe it when I see it.

[Deej 76,830]

44 minutes ago, JesusSweatDuck said:

Seriously, wtf us up with that.  All iron sights.  Can they really not afford some simple optics?

They don't need optics. They used to bullseye womp rats in their T-16's back home.