Jump to content

Русский корабль - иди нахуй

Eastwood

By Eastwood
in Daily Texan

 Share

Recommended Posts

Trey3216

Trey3216 15325

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, clapclapclap said:

Are you certain?  China and Russia have both long believed that they could first strike some type of nuke in various situations and the west would not respond in kind.  If Russia hit a Polish base or city with even their smallest nuke, NATO probably fractures.  Massive crowds would hit the streets of European capitols chanting, "It's not worth it, peace now.  Settle this!"  As we've seen in so many wars, angry rah rah defiance can often spring up early in a war, but long term commitment is much more difficult when the threat becomes real at home.  Former Soviet states might still maintain enough will, but I have strong doubts about Germany, Spain, Italy, etc.  I also doubt that currently our own govt would respond in kind.  "Ultimately we must do what saves the most lives."

Of course there are many, many ways this war could be incrementally escalated, I'm not implying that such a surprise, measured nuke strike would be likely.  But it is very possible, a potential checkmate at.  And your specific point was about invasion, not a nuke strike, but the threat is always there.

So much depends if Putin's endgame is just Ukraine, or a demilitarization fantasy for the rest of the former eastern bloc, or a combined Russia-China (-Iran proxy) asymmetrical cold world war three.  Too much debt in Europe and way, way too much debt in the US.  We're in end of WWII territory at the start of this war, with the Fed in a bad position.  If the Axis of Evil actually has the ability to knock off a major part of our electric grid for an extended period of time, it could have a similar economic impact of a Great Depression.  (No, I don't expect the doomsday scenario of widespread social chaos, other than some usual trouble spots we'd get through it like other wartime hardships.)  If they have the ability, power outage attempts are likely if we actually try to cut off Russia's oil exports and extend SWIFT to that.  If the US and Europe economies are heavily weakened, the attempt to de-dollarize energy in the BRICs may succeed.  Which with our debt bomb would produce another huge economic blow to the US.  A bad reset. 

Then there are the critical weak points we've allowed to develop.  The economic pain of supply issues of furniture/car chips/phones are nuisances and short term job losses, but China cutting off a large part of our prescription drugs would be huge.  Add in some strategic terror attacks, perhaps through proxies or false flags, and we face some major political instabilities (we'll get through those, but it could further tie up us and our allies for awhile.) 

Brisket's grave concern is warranted in this case.  We have to play smart and sober, not the hope, wish, and denial of the past.  I don't worry much about MAD, I worry about a combined Russia-China-proxies asymmetrical war.  They've been wargaming and planning such for over a decade.

(/no SLXpress)  

I know we all think about the effects this would have on our end, but I think we much too frequently don't assign the correct order of magnitude of how damaging it would be to China and those countries if things like that were to take place.  Yes we have a debt problem, but so does China.  They also have an horrific fake economy problem.  Building entire cities on debt that sit virtually empty to prop up their GDP numbers via construction loans and such.  They have to build the shit just to employ people so they can keep eating and not revolting against the communist party.  It's a fucking total sham, and everyone in America is terrified of the Chinese calling in US debt.  They fucking literally cannot afford to do it. 

We really should be much more terrified of the amount of debt Japan owns per capita.  It's about 7x what China owns, and Japan is a net-retiring society.  For 2 decades, Japan literally funded BoJ bonds by buying US Treasuries and getting paid for the Japanese retiree to hold their cash at the bank.  As the retirees raise more and more cash, they'll be forced to sell their BoJ bonds.  But the BoJ bonds were completely funded by US Treasuries, so the BoJ will have to unwind those positions to change it into cash.  IT'll be a fucking ugly ordeal. 

 

China is not even in the same universe as that.   

Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Replies 86.1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

  • atomheartbevo

    8601

  • MillerEP

    7286

  • Schulz2.0

    3637

  • InkaUtexas

    2979

Popular Days

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Popular Posts

AUS-97HORN
AUS-97HORN

For the love of Christ woman,  stop posting the same fucking thing every 20 mins just to make your neurotic self feel better.     Bring something useful to the thread other than your inane babbli

closetohumping
closetohumping
InkaUtexas
InkaUtexas

I volunteered today. Log/Admin role to replace people for 30-60 days. The operation is in the west, or should the Orcs win will be pulled back behind the NATO wall. Either way the humanitarian effort

Posted Images

Constant

Constant 6718

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, crash_davis said:

Finland to NATO. Its a real possibility.

https://www.tv4play.se/program/nyheterna/uppgifter-finska-socialdemokraterna-överens-om-nato/13751530

 The Finnish Social Democrats agree on NATO

The Finnish Social Democrats have agreed on NATO membership, according to the Finnish newspaper Iltalehti. Tomas Ries, associate professor at the Swedish National Defense College, calls the data an "earthquake in Finland's security policy".

Talk about having NATO at your borders. Way to go, Putin. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Ag with kids

Ag with kids 581

Posted
Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, Nicole44 said:

Why can’t we hire a computer programmer to use that money trick from Superman 3/Office space to take money from all things Russia and have that land directly in an account for Ukraine?  Then they can buy planes! With Russia’s money! 

026253F6-C248-4DBE-A323-C2223D5E5499.gif

We could set up a GoFundMe, but don't let Trudeau know...😉

Edited by Ag with kids
  • Hook 'Em 1
  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
BachelorTrek

BachelorTrek 2925

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, Nicole44 said:

Why can’t we hire a computer programmer to use that money trick from Superman 3/Office space to take money from all things Russia and have that land directly in an account for Ukraine?  Then they can buy planes! With Russia’s money! 

026253F6-C248-4DBE-A323-C2223D5E5499.gif

#OfficeSpace

  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

Posted
Posted (edited)

What if we had another flyover for health care workers but this time to cheer up Ukrainian citizens?   And this time, fighters with full ordnance payloads.  Because………oops

Edited by Lobo
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Snake Diggity

Snake Diggity 4614

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, synoptic said:

There is a limit to what is tolerated in terms of weapons lending in modern proxy wars.  For example, suppose we lent Ukraine a single ICBM with nuclear warheads.  Russia would know it came from us and would not care if it were the Ukrainians that entered the launch codes.  We would be in a nuclear war.  Likewise, if US and NATO aircraft start shooting down Russian aircraft and taking out their convoys with F-22s and F-35s, the nationality of the pilots simply won't matter.  We would be directly in the war as far as Russia is concerned.  They wouldn't be pondering the technicalities and perplexed by loopholes with this type of weaponry involved.    

Good post.  The rules are being further defined in real time.  Weve always known that a nuke going off, regardless of who fired it where, meant WW3.  Now it appears pretty clear that Russia has determined that US/NATO warplanes are in the same category and that if those assets are deployed against Russia then it means war between Russia and NATO.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
ShaggyBevo RIP

ShaggyBevo RIP 3867

Posted
Posted (edited)

The earlier statement of going on the offense seems to be true, appears UA has planes, and is going after the stuck column.

https://www.militarytimes.com/flashpoints/ukraine/2022/03/02/ukraine-jets-hit-russian-column-russia-has-used-thermobarics-ukraine-military-says/

 

EDIT- article was dated yesterday so maybe not the stuck column?

Edited by ShaggyBevo RIP
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Bevo

Bevo 13493

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Snake Diggity said:

Good post.  The rules are being further defined in real time.  Weve always known that a nuke going off, regardless of who fired it where, meant WW3.  Now it appears pretty clear that Russia has determined that US/NATO warplanes are in the same category and that if those assets are deployed against Russia then it means war between Russia and NATO.

I posted about this probably 100 pages ago. According to posters, we clearly killed Russian pilots in Vietnam and Korea. And that did not lead to war between us and Russia. So, it is not beyond the realm of possibility to allow mercenaries to fly planes sold or donated to the Ukranian government.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
TexasEd

TexasEd 8062

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, gsoda3 said:

where are you still hearing that's a question?  as of two days ago it was a hard no.

On topic of Migs.  What I read is that the announcement of the MIGs was premature.  There are a lot of legal ins and outs that need to be sorted.  Not canceled but not done deal.

Factors include - Poland need a backup since they don't have replacements yet. Making it a transfer without invoking an attack by Poland on Russia: are the planes unarmed when they leave Poland then they land in Ukraine to be armed before they can be used.  Things like that.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Trey3216

Trey3216 15325

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Bevo said:

I posted about this probably 100 pages ago. According to posters, we clearly killed Russian pilots in Vietnam and Korea. And that did not lead to war between us and Russia. So, it is not beyond the realm of possibility to allow mercenaries to fly planes sold or donated to the Ukranian government.

That's getting into the most simpletonian of tit 4 tat arguments.  It's not good business  

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Captainant

Captainant 27310

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

So what happens when the Russian economy completely implodes and Putin demands sanctions be lifted our he's going to launch nukes. 

Dohhh cmon now! When was the last time economic sanctions as a punishment for unjust invasion was a precursor to war??? Thankfully the russian state is a complete mess. But they do have nukes

Link to comment
Share on other sites
MillerEP

MillerEP 30339

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, NoName said:

enforcing a no fly zone = killing russian pilots and planes.

if we are going to kill russian pilots and planes, we are entering full scale warfare with Russia - as is the rest of the world no matter if they want to or not. if we are going to do that why the hell would we "just" enforce a no fly zone?

yes, thousands of Ukrainians will die needlessly. while it is unfortunate as hell, they are not part of NATO (and only 54% of UKR people want to join pre this fight), they are not part of the EU - only 58% of people wanted to joint that. 21% of people wanted to join a customs union with RUS+Belarus+Kazakhstan. there is no clear want by the UKR people over time to join either group and ally themselves to Europe or NATO. they JUST requested to join and have their request fast tracked THREE days ago.

this isn't going to fight against Iraq or the Taliban, this is a full hot war against a nominal superpower with nukes. you don't jump into that kind of war over someone who isn't an ally, someone who hasn't joined your alliance and someone who had limited interest in pushing to join the alliance until they were invaded.

going balls to the wall into a nuclear war with the rest of the world against fucking Russia over a country that has had every single opportunity to lean closer to Europe/NATO and has opted not to over the last 30 (!!!) years seems like an iffy choice when there are so many other options.

Going Crazy Will Ferrell GIF

~250k people have died in the Civil War in Yemen and nobody was interested. somewhere between ~120k and ~150k from 06 to 18 died in the Mexican Drug War. Est 350k have died in the Boko Haram/Islamist fight in Nigeria. ~350k have died in the Syrian Civil War.

don't see you or most others pushing to enter any of those conflicts, which are worse in basically every way for humanity as a whole when it comes to how many folks it has impacted, just because the fucking Ruskies are not on the other side.

 

I don't care. The fact that Ukraine isn't currently a part of NATO is NOT their fault. The threat to the West in Yemen and Syria, or Nigeria isn't anything compared to a new Cold War with half of Europe. This is a chance to take out one of America's biggest enemies, and send a message to our other adversary China. Kick them while they're down. I don't believe it will ever come to nuclear war. If we don't step in now, then when we will? After he's killed hundreds of thousands and then starts bullying and raining bombs down in Germany? The world is with us now, take advantage of it.

There also is a HUGE chance Putin backs down and there isn't any war with anyone. Only saved lives.

Edited by MillerEP
  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Hook1997

Hook1997 5269

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

So what happens when the Russian economy completely implodes and Putin demands sanctions be lifted our he's going to launch nukes. 

Got one of these?  There’s actually a place in Gonzales that sells them, I bet they are pretty busy right now. 

E3DCF761-95A1-4E16-85FF-9B389665BDDA.gif

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
SL Xpress

SL Xpress 7504

Posted
Posted
49 minutes ago, NoName said:

yes, they deserve help.

yes, they need help.

and if they were part of NATO or the EU (and have had 30 years to do so) they would have received help in this exact situation.

...but they have not shown that much interest in actually doing either until Russian troops were literally marching to Kyiv.

 

You might be becoming a bit strident, which is diminishing the effect of what you're trying to say.

Also, you don't know much about recent history if you feel like Ukraine hasn't wanted to be a part of NATO/EU. That's simply not true. It's way more complicated than that, but the short answer is they've never had a realistic shot at it, even if huge portions have wanted to. The whole 2014 Maidan Revolution, where hundreds of thousands of people protested in Kyiv's main square while facing brutal crackdowns from Yanukuvych's security forces, was all about wanting to join NATO/EU. And that's the short answer. You're simply wrong on this account. Doesn't make you wrong on any of the rest, because you have it exactly right. But this isn't the Ukrainian people's fault. That's a rationalization to feel better about the helplessness of their current situation.

 

To everyone else:

People want to help Ukraine more substantially that what is happening right now. That is natural. We see atrocities occurring. We've become invested in the outcome. The natural inclination is to want to see more done.

When I say there will be no NATO troops - US, Polish, British, French, German, et al - crossing the border, by foot, tank, troop carrier, or plane, I don't say it because I'm trying to convince anyone to believe it. That's up to each individual. It's to prevent you from continuing to think it might happen.

This is one of those where it doesn't matter what public opinion says. John F. Kennedy didn't monitor polls when ordered a blockade of Cuba to keep nuclear missiles from landing there. Guatanamo Bay is still open for business regardless of what people are asking for. We still give plenty of foreign aid (not as much as we should, but that's a different discussion) even though more than half the population thinks if we just quit doing that we could balance our budget overnight (no, btw, that's not even remotely true).

It doesn't matter how much pressure the public were to put on the government, either in the US or in NATO countries, it won't happen. Nix on the no fly zone. 

Having said that, pressure is still good. The more pressure there is, the more governments/NATO are willing to do. And everything matters. Ukraine still needs weapons and ammunition. They still need humanitarian aid. They still need help managing what will be a horrendous refugee crisis. And their neighbors are going to need help managing that as well. 

But if you're constantly checking the news to see when Western nations FINALLY start actively helping to fight Russian troops, it will never ever ever happen. Ever. You're just banging your head against a wall. I don't say this to convince you. Believe what you want. I'm saying it to help you get your expectations in line. 

  • Hook 'Em 5
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
ChiTownDoc

ChiTownDoc 21091

Posted
Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

I don't care. The fact that Ukraine isn't currently a part of NATO is NOT their fault. The threat to the West in Yemen and Syria, or Nigeria isn't anything compared to a new Cold War with half of Europe. This is a chance to take out one of America's biggest enemies, and send a message to our other adversary China. Kick them while they're down. I don't believe it will ever come to nuclear war.

That's nice.  But if you're wrong there's this mutual assured destruction doctrine that could wipe out half the civilized world...in a best case scenario. 

Edited by ChiTownDoc
  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Sbbruin

Sbbruin 21697

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

Nah, if the nukes start flying, I'd just as soon get vaporized.  I have zero interest to live in some post nuclear holocaust dystopian society. 

Imma just head to sea, hit a deserted island for a few months, then return as the last man standing.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
 Share
Go to topic listing


Football ... Basketball ... Baseball ... Other Sports ... Futbol ... 🤫995🤫 ... Gambling ... Movies & TV ... Music ... Hobbies ... Lulz ... Food & Travel ... Daily Texan ... Business and Markets ... Cloak Room ... Help ... For Sale ... Board Discussion ... Subscribe!... Donate!... Advertise... COOKIE MONSTER!

×
×
  • Create New...