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Ukraine released this.  Still think not as many deaths, tanks, and APCS, listed, but we are 8 or so days in, and there is a shit-ton of photos and videos and people compiling a lot of information, so it's possible that a lot of those numbers are close, and I'd be curious how they count the troop loses (deaths, POWs, etc.).

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Edited by atomheartbevo
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Apple going to piss off Putin.  

https://appleinsider.com/articles/22/03/04/apple-maps-now-shows-crimea-as-part-of-ukraine

Quote

A recent Apple Maps update has Crimea reverted to Ukrainian territory on the service for the first time since 2014.

After Russia's invasion of Crimea in 2014, Apple initially refused to regard Crimea as belonging to any country. In 2019, it was revised to be Russian territory when Apple Maps and other services that utilize its location technology was requested within Russia. Internationally, Crimea remained in Apple Maps as not belonging to any state.

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Apple has apparently taken a stand on the matter, with the revision. The changes in the Apple Maps labeling were first spotted in a report by Mashable on late Thursday.

 

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4 hours ago, dcar00 said:

It can help with awareness of poor/third world countries who have food, clothing, shelter, medical crises and motivate countries to ban together to get supplies where they are needed. It can make the world aware of genocidal activities but yes, as a peace making body it kinda sucks ass.

It’s not going to be a “peace making body.” It’s a dialogue body. It’s simply a mechanism to keep lines of communication open. Peace making requires an enforcement mechanism. There isn’t a powerful sovereign nation on earth who is going to give up their ability to make decisions as a country to a third party organization. Which is the reason for the security council. It’s not designed to have agreement. It’s designed to make sure the most powerful countries on the planet all have a veto power in terms of being told what to do. 

It’s actually a remarkable organization in the sense that it exists at all. It’s very limited in what it can functionally accomplish. But having a place where nations can go and feel like they have some kind of voice is actually a very powerful tool for world stability. 

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18 hours ago, bernorange said:

"Why are we blaming the women, though, when it's men who started this war?)"

I didn't see that as blaming the women.  It was an attempt tp make Russian women angry - to start a pussy riot.  How long would the war last if Russian women refused to fuck until the war was over?

I hear Art Briles is available to lead Russian men through that challenge.

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25 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

This apparently is the video referenced in the tweets earlier.  It was Ukrainian special ops folks ambushing some airborne and possibly Chechnyan forces   Many of the airborne’s vehicles are fucking aluminum for weight purposes but aluminum don’t do so well with heat   

Seriously NSFW

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1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

Ukraine released this.  Still think not as many deaths, tanks, and APCS, listed, but we are 8 or so days in, and there is a shit-ton of photos and videos and people compiling a lot of information, so it's possible that a lot of those numbers are close, and I'd be curious how they count the troop loses (deaths, POWs, etc.).

FM_PJacXoAE7Fxq?format=jpg&name=medium

 

Any estimate on ACV of all of this equipment destroyed? Would love to understand how much this war has cost them so far and also curious how much more this can cost them as this continues to stretch out. There has already been so much material losses on the Russian side that we may see diminishing returns with a protracted war posture.

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Figure we are at a good point to at least take a moment to view what type of progress the Russians have made since this whole thing started.

 

At least to me, it feels like with all the isolated videos/images/memes/bodycounts from different media outlets and governments, it is tough to get a real handle on the scope/speed of territorial gains and advancements the Russians have made. Going strictly from the Twitters, it would seem like the Russians are completely fucked at every turn and that everything is coming up roses for the Ukrainians. But is that because we just expected them to be immediately overwhelmed, so the indisputable fact that they are indeed putting up a much stronger resistance skewing our views? Prolly so, to some degree.

 

So for the sake of consistency, here are maps from every day of the war as generated by Institute for the Study of War (which given its Neocon ties to the Kagans, can't be accused of being Russian sympathetic), which releases an updated one every day at 3:00 PM EST. Should serve as at least a baseline to gauge the situation on the ground. 

 

And I am also including at the end one of the only maps I have found that shows Ukrainian positions around the Donbass. I couldn't find any particularly good maps of those positions outside of one that came from a Russian twitter account, so grain of salt and all that jive.

 

Since the most recent map release on March 3rd, we know that there is heavy fighting around Zaporizhia, so they'll certainly move up to the important city of Dnipro next and try to meet up with the Kharkiv Krew in coming days/weeks in order to Kesselschlacht the eastern UA units. #ArmchairGeneralUsingMilitaryTermsILearnedFromSurly

 

Starting from most recent:

 

Spoiler

 

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Edited to say I don't know why I put them starting most recent...spatial intelligence/data display is not my strong suit. But too lazy to fix.

Edited by Shady Ray
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6 hours ago, Wade said:

Buzzrock has been spot on this whole time.  No matter how long they hold out and how bloody it gets, it's going to end the same way.  Take the long view, live to fight another day.  Keep fucking around and this shit will get out of control.  It will get out of control and we will all die.

Easy for you to say when it’s not your country under attack and your brothers and sisters being slaughtered.

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6 hours ago, Nicole44 said:

Couldn’t the world police (whatever) arrest Putin and charge him with war crimes and because he’s a threat to himself and others put him in a 5150 psych hold indefinitely and secretly where he can’t get in touch with anyone on  the outside?  Of course we’d have to find him (gotta believe we know where he is) and confront and arrest. Because I apparently now drop acid now  I’m just trying to get him off  the stage. By force.

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You're right. Everyone should disarm and submit to Russian rule so we don't have to worry about any more war from Putin.

You’re a pretty good poster but this is a shitpost.

Which do you prefer: lots more Ukrainians die and Russia wins, or no more Ukrainians die and Russia wins? Those are your options.
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14 minutes ago, Buzzrock said:


You’re a pretty good poster but this is a shitpost.

Which do you prefer: lots more Ukrainians die and Russia wins, or no more Ukrainians die and Russia wins? Those are your options.

Or a bunch more Ukrainians and Russians die and then all the rest of us too when this goes nuclear 

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6 hours ago, Wade said:

This situation is not akin to Chamberlain appeasing the dictator of a rising world power with global ambitions.  Russia is a decaying country with an economy that can't compete in this century.  It's conventional military is being used up in this endeavor.  Those who prognasticate that this is just the start of his military endeavors have no clue.  He has nothing to extend beyond this.

What he does have are nukes.  What he also has is an attitude of, "if I'm going down I'm taking the West with me" (his foreign minister threatens nuclear war multiple times a day).

When you have a madman like that in a situation like this, you appease him his victory in Ukraine.  Then you work quietly to get him out of power without implicating yourself.

There is no way the conventional Russian military is being used up in this war. There are plenty of Russian troops, tanks, artillery and more importantly aircraft available to move on to the next target. Their ability to successfully deploy their military is certainly in doubt, but the numbers are clearly there.

 

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25 minutes ago, Buzzrock said:


You’re a pretty good poster but this is a shitpost.

Which do you prefer: lots more Ukrainians die and Russia wins, or no more Ukrainians die and Russia wins? Those are your options.

I don’t agree. I’m not sure what you consider Russian victory, but I don’t see them winning this at all unless the West just tosses up their hands to say, “It’s not worth fighting over.”

Who are we to dictate what is worth dying for to Ukrainians? Is that really your concern? Because I don’t think it is. I think your concern is the dangers of escalation. You’d prefer Ukrainians to be happy in their police state under Russian hegemony, and quit making this harder than it has to be. Like Clayton Williams advised us regarding rape, “When it’s inevitable, just relax and enjoy it.”

So I decline your options and choose option 3.

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20 minutes ago, MaybeACoordinator said:

Or a bunch more Ukrainians and Russians die and then all the rest of us too when this goes nuclear 

Or Putin dies, Russia de-escalates, and other people who would follow Putin’s path in the future have a higher sense of consequence. 

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Here’s a an hour long video from the Center for International Strategic Studies analyzing the conflict in the early going. I found it great because they pretty much echoed everything I’ve thought throughout the past week. Doesn’t mean any of us are right. There’s some discussion at the end regarding what an insurgency might look like. A lot of pragmatism. Wasn’t a fan of the moderator at the beginning, but once he got his bearings I felt like he did well  It’s from two days ago, so keep that in mind. 

 

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4 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

China has extensive territorial disputes with multiple neighbors far beyond Taiwan and has said they intend to resolve those disputes by force when they can and if they can’t get them peacefully.  WRT Philippines, China builds fake islands in Filipino waters and then sends coast guardsmen to shoot at any Filipino boat that gets too close. They base their claims on Filipino, Malaysian, Vietnamese, and the entire fucking South China Sea on things like Ming Dynasty maps and written records. 
 

Up until last Thursday, Russians enjoyed significantly more freedom of expression and political dissidence than anyone in China, to go along with an overall higher standard of living. China is stuffed to the gills with party connected businessmen who depend on a synergy between the state, industry, and sanctioned corruption.  State violence against dissidents and minorities in Russia is still not on anything close to what China does, which is truly industrial scale and goes far beyond assassinations of opposition leaders and spy-world defectors. 

In short almost everything in your post is wrong. China is still a far worse violator of human rights and if/when China decides to act on its rhetoric (which is reminiscent of Putin before 2004), global stability will be far more threatened. 

I think the idea of riding Putin out from within was the best path forward, but that looks increasingly difficult as he clamps down on information from the West and the outpouring of propaganda. I guess I really shouldn’t be surprised that Russians on camera aren’t willing to disparage the war on Ukraine, but these folks seemed to really be bought in. The West really should be trying to figure out a way to overcome the Russian propaganda.

 

Edited by Enchubben
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I don’t agree. I’m not sure what you consider Russian victory, but I don’t see them winning this at all unless the West just tosses up their hands to say, “It’s not worth fighting over.”
Who are we to dictate what is worth dying for to Ukrainians? Is that really your concern? Because I don’t think it is. I think your concern is the dangers of escalation. You’d prefer Ukrainians to be happy in their police state under Russian hegemony, and quit making this harder than it has to be. Like Clayton Williams advised us regarding rape, “When it’s inevitable, just relax and enjoy it.”
So I decline your options and choose option 3.

When America is sending billions in aid, we can have a say on what’s worth dying for.


Your option 3 is to keep fighting, and deal with the aftermath later. It’ll be years to clean this up once multiple bridges, roads, etc are cleared and repaired. Then you get the pleasure of rebuilding an entire country basically from scrap which will take years.

The millions who have fled aren’t coming back to a war savaged country. Their men who are fighting the war joins them in Poland or Slovakia and aren’t there to help rebuild. I mean if you settle for police state Russia, you have a chance to defect to a country that’ll probably take you in pretty quickly…..and most of the people you know in your life aren’t dead
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15 minutes ago, Enchubben said:

I think the idea of riding Putin out from within was the best path forward, but that looks increasingly difficult as he clamps down on information from the West and the outpouring of propaganda. I guess I really shouldn’t be surprised that Russians on camera aren’t willing to disparage the war on Ukraine, but these folks seemed to really be bought in. The West really should be trying to figure out a way to overcome the Russian propaganda.

 

Propaganda wouldn’t be a thing if it wasn’t effective. The olds are more susceptible because their media consumption is usually very simple.  One news station, one paper, that’s it. I would guess younger Russians would at least have questions because all of a sudden they don’t have access to so many things they are used to, from all over the world. 

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21 minutes ago, Enchubben said:

I think the idea of riding Putin out from within was the best path forward, but that looks increasingly difficult as he clamps down on information from the West and the outpouring of propaganda. I guess I really shouldn’t be surprised that Russians on camera aren’t willing to disparage the war on Ukraine, but these folks seemed to really be bought in. The West really should be trying to figure out a way to overcome the Russian propaganda.

 

I find it interesting that the video ends explaining to us that Zelensky is a Jew, with the inference being that he obviously can’t be a Nazi. I know I’ve said this multiple times, but it’s not pertinent to the Russian domestic audience. They associate Ukrainian cooperation with the Nazis in WWII with barbaric atrocities against Russians during the German invasion. Particularly Stepan Bandera is a polarizing figure on both sides, with Ukrainians considering him a hero and Russians feeling strongly he was a war criminal. 

People who dismiss this Russian propaganda as ridiculous underestimate its power on the Russian people. The opposite is true as well. The West doesn’t associate Nazi Germany with Stepan Bandera, Ukraine independence, and only in the tertiary regarding the devastation of the German invasion. Sure, we acknowledge Stalingrad, but mostly we think of the Holocaust, D-Day, the battle over Britain, and if you’re British, Dunkirk. If you’re French you think of the bravery of de Gaulle, and skip over that whole Vichy France thing. 

Anyway, I’m unsurprised at the reactions of the interviewees. I’m surprised at the surprise in the reactions to it on the thread. 

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8 hours ago, Nicole44 said:

Couldn’t the world police (whatever) arrest Putin and charge him with war crimes and because he’s a threat to himself and others put him in a 5150 psych hold indefinitely and secretly where he can’t get in touch with anyone on  the outside?  Of course we’d have to find him (gotta believe we know where he is) and confront and arrest. Because I apparently now drop acid now  I’m just trying to get him off  the stage. By force.

image.gif.84003e4003fa3b2ae359d2946e2402b4.gif

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6 hours ago, immamac said:

I don't think china is as fucked up as people make them out to be. I think they are just different. China isn't off trying to conquer Japan. They are taking back Hong Kong (which is legally theirs) and Taiwan, which was once part of China and still technically is China (just the wrong China). If they were out trying to take the Philippines or some shit that would be different. I don't see china going on some manifest destiny conquer the world mission. They want to bolster their economy and prosper. I'm sure there is corruption there, but when you look at it there are distinct differences between china and Russia, especially the oligarchy driven nature of Russia and the communal property driven nature of China (however unfairly distributed). China eat their own as much as they eat others.

We have disagreements with China on how disproportionate their deals are and some of their tactics in not respecting international norms, but that's stupid to equate to a literal madman who murders and steals from his own country. 

You and Nicole picking from the same lollipop tree?

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22 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

Your option 3 is to keep fighting, and deal with the aftermath later. It’ll be years to clean this up once multiple bridges, roads, etc are cleared and repaired. Then you get the pleasure of rebuilding an entire country basically from scrap which will take years.

The millions who have fled aren’t coming back to a war savaged country. Their men who are fighting the war joins them in Poland or Slovakia and aren’t there to help rebuild. I mean if you settle for police state Russia, you have a chance to defect to a country that’ll probably take you in pretty quickly…..and most of the people you know in your life aren’t dead

for someone who suddenly cares a ton about demolished countries and displacing people...where was this when looking at places that actually have had a ton of displaced people and have for years?

sub saharan africa is at about 6.7 million IDPs due to conflict. Syria is at 1.8m displaced due to conflict. DRC alone is 2.2m IDPs. Ethopia is 1.6m. 500k in Burkina Faso. Almost 600k in Mozambique.

FYI those numbers are new displacements in 2020 alone - based on the most recent data out there from the internal displacement monitoring center's 2021 report.

know what ukraine has in common with every single one of those countries mentioned above (DRC, Syria, Ethopia, Burkina Faso, Mozambique, even places like Yemen and Sudan)? they are not allied with us via NATO or a part of the EU. know what else? they aren't close allies of our allies.

who knows, maybe you have been super outspoken about the Houthi's and think we need to take troops into Yemen to stop the Saudis from conducting operations there.

... that said, know what's different about Ukraine? other than the fact it's the fucking Russians?

 

Edited by NoName
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5 minutes ago, TXSG8R said:

Propaganda wouldn’t be a thing if it wasn’t effective. The olds are more susceptible because their media consumption is usually very simple.  One news station, one paper, that’s it. I would guess younger Russians would at least have questions because all of a sudden they don’t have access to so many things they are used to, from all over the world. 

They’re also a generation closer to the devastation WWII wrought. Their parents undoubtedly lived though it for many of them. They were raised in the Soviet school system. The defeat of Nazi Germany by the USSR was a pillar of Soviet patriotism. Stepan Bandera, Ukrainian atrocities, and his eventual defeat was treated like a hero saga second only to Hitler himself. 

Media consumption by itself is not enough to counter echo chambers. We have rabid polarization in this country on both the left and right as both sides seek out information sources that reaffirm their pre-conceived world view. It has to be a comfort of some sort for these Russians to have their view of the world reinforced by the news station or paper they get their news from. Plus, when every state controlled outlet is parroting the same thing, then it multiplies the effect. 

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I don’t agree. I’m not sure what you consider Russian victory, but I don’t see them winning this at all unless the West just tosses up their hands to say, “It’s not worth fighting over.”
Who are we to dictate what is worth dying for to Ukrainians? Is that really your concern? Because I don’t think it is. I think your concern is the dangers of escalation. You’d prefer Ukrainians to be happy in their police state under Russian hegemony, and quit making this harder than it has to be. Like Clayton Williams advised us regarding rape, “When it’s inevitable, just relax and enjoy it.”
So I decline your options and choose option 3.

What’s option 3?
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24 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:


When America is sending billions in aid, we can have a say on what’s worth dying for.


Your option 3 is to keep fighting, and deal with the aftermath later. It’ll be years to clean this up once multiple bridges, roads, etc are cleared and repaired. Then you get the pleasure of rebuilding an entire country basically from scrap which will take years.

The millions who have fled aren’t coming back to a war savaged country. Their men who are fighting the war joins them in Poland or Slovakia and aren’t there to help rebuild. I mean if you settle for police state Russia, you have a chance to defect to a country that’ll probably take you in pretty quickly…..and most of the people you know in your life aren’t dead

Not really. America gets to have a say in what they’ll support or not, but they don’t get to say what’s worth dying for to Ukrainians. They just get to say how effective they’ll be in doing it. 

You have no idea who will return and who won’t. 

I’m stunned you’re arguing living in a Russian police state wouldn’t be that bad, you could just escape if you want. I said this to another poster, but this isn’t the argument of someone who wants what’s best for Ukrainians. This is the argument of someone who is scared of escalation and would just prefer to allow Putin to get his way so the threat of escalation goes away. 

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1 hour ago, Buzzrock said:


You’re a pretty good poster but this is a shitpost.

Which do you prefer: lots more Ukrainians die and Russia wins, or no more Ukrainians die and Russia wins? Those are your options.

While his viewpoint may or may not be correct, it’s ridiculous for you to call it a shit post when we have a real life example in the 20th century of a murderous asshole not being stopped who went on to take over multiple countries and killed six million Jews.

You don’t know any more than anyone else about Putin’s ultimate goals and state of mind. So back up.  For all we know you are the 21st century Chamberlain. 

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Would love to see Russian and Belorussian troops go Varsity Blues on their leaders and just say no, the scene where coach leaves the locker room and is never seen again. Wishful thinking, most likely.
 
я не хочу твоей жизни
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Option 3 is to support the Ukrainians with sanctions and aid until Putin de-escalates or there’s regime change. Which may (probably will) take years. 

So you think Ukraine can hold out militarily for years with some supplies from the West but no troops?
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Not really. America gets to have a say in what they’ll support or not, but they don’t get to say what’s worth dying for to Ukrainians. They just get to say how effective they’ll be in doing it. 
You have no idea who will return and who won’t. 
I’m stunned you’re arguing living in a Russian police state wouldn’t be that bad, you could just escape if you want. I said this to another poster, but this isn’t the argument of someone who wants what’s best for Ukrainians. This is the argument of someone who is scared of escalation and would just prefer to allow Putin to get his way so the threat of escalation goes away. 

You tell me what’s better. Russian police state or what’s going on now and however the fuck the country will look 5-10-15-20 years from now.

obviously I don’t want escalation either but Ukraine will be rocks and debris when it’s done. So you get to fight and spend the rest of your life cleaning up this mess, because this’ll take decades
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3 minutes ago, Buzzrock said:


So you think Ukraine can hold out militarily for years with some supplies from the West but no troops?

Yes. 100%. It would have to be an insurgency. I don’t think they’ll have a standing army. But Russia has zero chance of any kind of successful occupation or installing a puppet government that can survive a Russian exit. 

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3 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

Nuclear power plant on fire?  The Russians posses the most nuclear warheads on the planet?

are you are saying that because there is a nuclear power involved we should be MORE active than if one wasn't?

GIF by LoveIndieFilms

re: power plant fire:

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Officials said the fire at the Zaporizhzhia compound was in a training centre, not at the plant itself. An official at Energoatom, the state enterprise that runs Ukraine's four nuclear plants, said there was no further fighting, the fire was out, radiation was normal and Russian forces were in control.

was it dumb? for sure.

that said, what's more likely? russian forces were trying to take over a power plant that provides ~20% of power to Ukranians and turn it off OR that they are trying to melt it down, and have the wind blow the contamination south and east into Russian controlled areas and into Mother Russia itself?

https://www.windy.com/47.851/35.118?46.762,33.536,6,m:eYUag7G

image.thumb.png.62c81371a2174ac33a508fe325e64056.png

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2 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

obviously I don’t want escalation either but Ukraine will be rocks and debris when it’s done.

dude, come on.

there is no reason for Putin to turn Kyiv and the rest of the country into Grozny circa 1995. if he wanted the country destroyed they would have handled the initial invasion much, much differently.

voyna_grozniy_21.jpg?itok=vg596u48

 

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1 minute ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:


You tell me what’s better. Russian police state or what’s going on now and however the fuck the country will look 5-10-15-20 years from now.

obviously I don’t want escalation either but Ukraine will be rocks and debris when it’s done. So you get to fight and spend the rest of your life cleaning up this mess, because this’ll take decades

I’ll let the Ukrainian people tell us. They’re the ones whose opinion matters. Whatever aid the US sends will be chicken feed compared to the overall federal budget. Same as it was in Afghanistan when the Russians invaded.

Again, some things are worth fighting/dying for. You don’t think this is it. To me, if this isn’t worth dying for as a Ukrainian, what is? I put myself in harms way as a sailor for a lot less at stake than what the Ukrainians are facing. 

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