Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3868]

26 minutes ago, blacklab said:

 

 

 

How many womp rats did he take out with TP back home?

[Gravy Train 974]

32 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

This is pretty much what I was trying to get at earlier when I said I do not think it'll ever come to nuclear war. Historical precedence has shown that somewhere along the line somebody refuses. Cooler heads usually prevail. I posted the whole thing earlier, the FSB guy also says Putin is not suicidal.

Forgot these responses as well.

 

[BachelorTrek 2967]

15 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

 

(Animated Gif is of the Ukrainian army firing the 2S7 Pion during an exercise.)

It sounds like the Ukrainian army is still firing their 2S7 Pions to defend Kyiv.

[rpspeed 1363]

 

As I sit in my hot tub at 2am listening to Bark at the Moon and drinking Shiner...fuck Putin

Edited March 6, 2022 by rpspeed

[atomheartbevo 89629]

2 hours ago, BamaATL said:

I've read several Clancy novels in my youth, I didn't find them interesting, just as I don't find them interesting now.  His prose was dreadful and in no way insightful.  I wish people would stop referencing them in real world situations.  The second Putin either backs down or is deposed our killed, I think the Chinese will act in an opportunistic manner.  

Red Storm Rising is worth a read just for what's currently happening.  Cardinal of the Kremlin as well if you like spy stuff.

[atomheartbevo 89629]

I would also toss in Third World War: August 1985 by Sir John Hackett - you can find cheap copies on Amazon although my hardcover version appears to be worth hundreds of dollars.  

It was a play-by-play of a war with Russia, and if you read Harold Coyle's Team Yankee, it's a companion of sorts to Third World War, basically Coyle wrote a scenario of a company-sized American unit's actions (armor) that take place within Hackett's Third World War (and Hackett liked it a lot, even if it was unofficial).  Coyle apparently released a 2018 updated version of his book, and now I'm going to have to pick that up.

And you will think both are unrealistic because the Soviet units were competent and understood combined-arms efforts.

And yeah, they are dated (and I haven't read them since the 90s), but I have a feeling that Russian decision-making still matches that of the Soviet era more than we would think.

[atomheartbevo 89629]

Do we think they are hitting over 20 tanks a day?  Actual tanks.

 

[atomheartbevo 89629]

 

[hersh95 92]

 

I’ve kinda thought from the start that China was the one that could put Putin back on his leash. Wonder what we’d have to offer to get this done?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Bevo 13569]

8 hours ago, FartingMonk said:

Everyone wants to give them jets but no one knows how to. We can wish and hope all we want but if you don't have a solution to the problem it makes it tough.  

And even the airspace thing.  I think Ukraine is learning how shitty it is being a nuetral country being surrounded by NATO and Russia.  Even if Israel has any desire to help Ukraine.  Who is going to let them fly through their airspace.  

 

 

 

You clear a road at the border from Poland to Ukraine and turn it into a runway.

[Shady Ray 1633]

I really think the Israel tie-in is worth watching here, because they are not coming into this due to altruistic concerns over Ukraine itself. They clearly do not like the speed and direction that the JCPOA renegotiation is moving and there are multiple reports out of Israel saying that they feel betrayed by the US and are concerned that they have lost all influence over the JCPOA negotiations in Vienna. And those negotiations are a cunt hair away from wrapping up.
 

Considerations in no particular order, and without deep analysis, but rather just a random vomiting of thoughts:

- The West now has a huge incentive to get the JCPOA situation sorted so that an additional 1.5mm bbd can hit the global markets. So essentially, Israel is left somewhat isolated now on an issue that many in their leadership see as critical to Israeli national security.

- Russia has massive influence throughout the ME, not only with Iran, but also with plenty of other actors that impact Israeli security and power.

- The White House apparently gave a grudging go-ahead for Bennett's trip to Moscow, but was not thrilled about it. So Israel is most likely acting in its own interest here, not as an extension of American influence

- For all the mutual influence that Israel and the US share over each others domestic politics, keeping fuel costs in Peoria from hitting 6-7-8 bucks per gallon is way more important to a self-centered politician in DC than ensuring Israel’s security.

- Israel's security is more important to Bennett than that same congressman's electoral chances in Peoria

- Iran is heavily dependent on trade with Russia and Russia have tens of billions of dollars in arms deals in place with Iran at the moment. In fact, before this thing started heating up, Iran was set up on Russia’s SPFS, the alternative to SWIFT, so Russia is an important economic/security lifeline to them and the impact of sanctions on that is yet to fully be understood

- Iran depends on Russia for the influence that they have with Damascus, as Syrian security depends on Russian involvement, but Russia does not depend on Iran to influence Assad and Assad can survive without Iran.

- Reducing/controlling Iranian influence in Damascus is critical to Israel's sense of security.

- Russian influence over Damascus is not particularly objectionable to Israel, and to some degree is beneficial so long as it is used to leash Iran instead of enable it. 

- The Gulf Arabs have all kinds of different angles and interests here, ranging from security to energy plays to domestic concerns...too many to even get into.

- Not even getting into the Turkish angle, as that would take pages.

The circular/criss-crossing/clusterfuckerific interconnectivity between all of these players is much more critical to Israel, Iran, Syria, the Gulf States, and to some degree Turkey than it is to the US or Russia. But the amount of relief afforded to the global economy - including the US to a significant degree - from the inevitable blowback of Russia being isolated from global commerce is most easily mitigated by moves from the Middle East…by Iran and by players both for and against Iran.
 

The fact that Bennett took off - on Shabbat nonetheless - to Moscow for a three hour plus meeting with Vlad and then stopped off in Berlin unannounced to the public to meet with Scholz indicates that something serious is being discussed there. And that doesn’t mean it is something good for the US or bad for the US, notwithstanding the fact that it is one of American’s closes allies in the middle of it. No one knows anything other than it surely is significant.

In an incredible and almost instantaneous 180 degree switch in strategic positioning, Russia would now benefit by blowing up the JCPOA IF it could leverage its willingness to gum up the works for relief elsewhere. Killing the JCPOA would be huge for Israel. And Israel can absolutely influence things relating to Russian market access and sanctions “loopholery”. But Russia’s close ally Iran would be livid over Russia enabling the second death of JCPOA at this late stage. And on and on it goes, ally by ally, enemy by enemy, relationship by relationship.

I am not even going to try to predict all the ways this could unfold. There is no way anyone outside of highly placed actors can truly know what is going on, but I think we can all rest assured that it is very, very complex and that every player is now playing for their own self interests. And those self-interests are for the first time in recent memory not necessarily consistent with traditional post-Cold War alliance structures. 
 

But perhaps one takeaway that we have learned from this past two days is that Naftali Bennett does, in fact, roll on Shabbos.

 

Edited March 6, 2022 by Shady Ray

[Nicole44 22059]

Please don’t let this fall apart/be bullshit:

That’s as we all know game changing. But how long will that take? They need them now.

[Hawndoh 2386]

2 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Do we think they are hitting over 20 tanks a day?  Actual tanks.

 

Many of those tanks were taken out by the mud, farmers tractors, or simply abandoned.

They haven't "hit" all of those.

[Shady Ray 1633]

Chinese UnionPay and Sberbank and Alfa Bank-issued MIR Cards joining forces. I don't know about the US, but UnionPay is accepted almost everywhere in Germany, but MIR generally isn't. Well, until now, I guess.

 

From the Russians: Sberbank working to issue MIR, China's UnionPay co-badged payment cards after Visa, MasterCard announce exit from Russia

https://interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/75735/

 

Russia has been pushing country-by-country to accept MIR, with some success, but this will be a huge step forward, as UnionPay is accepted all over the place. They have been making noise about doing this for years, but as is the case in so many other areas, these sanctions are accelerating what used to be slow, gradual realignments.
 

Mastercard and Visa bolt so that Chinese/Russian alternatives can link up and expand. No, this is not some massive paradigm change and will take time to implement, but I think this is going to be one of many steps where we see parallel and alternative financial systems emerge. 

Edited March 6, 2022 by Shady Ray

[StruggleBus 3922]

3 minutes ago, Bevo said:

I'll talk about US political parties but I don't mean it as cr

This is how all of the shitty political posts in DT start

[Hawndoh 2386]

That post is fine IMO. Good perspective.

[Bevo 13569]

21 minutes ago, Nicole44 said:

Please don’t let this fall apart/be bullshit:

That’s as we all know game changing. But how long will that take? They need them now.

I think it will happen very quickly. There are not good reasons to prevent it. The only impediment is gearing the planes so that they can easily be flown in combat by Ukranians and actually getting the planes to Ukranian pilots. It will be interesting to me to see how we arm the planes.

It seems like we and NATO nations are on some sort of fine line. If we give Ukranians common munitions then all is fine. But if we start gibing them more lethal munitions, I feel like we think that that will cross some line. To me, it is like fighting with one hand tied behind your back and that we aren't enabling Ukraine to win but to be able to fight the good fight and simply prolong the war.

[Shady Ray 1633]

24 minutes ago, Nicole44 said:

Please don’t let this fall apart/be bullshit:

That’s as we all know game changing. But how long will that take? They need them now.

 

I mean, this tweet is six hours old, which is apparently the same as the publication time of the NBC article, but at least as of that time the Polish Government doesn't seem to agree.

[Bevo 13569]

6 minutes ago, Shady Ray said:

 

I mean, this tweet is six hours old, which is apparently the same as the publication time of the NBC article, but at least as of that time the Polish Government doesn't seem to agree.

It is all over the news today in the US on both CNN and FOX. After the meeting with Zalinsky, the US is keen on supplying planes to Poland and having Poland supply Ukraine. I am confident that this will happen as it is receiving bipartisan support. The US will make it worthwhile for Poland to go along with the plan.

Edited March 6, 2022 by Bevo

[Bobby_Batronic 1994]

Another thought on the wood stacked on trucks. 
 

Mud. 
 

Good way to get out of it. And those are bridging units. 

Edited March 6, 2022 by Bobby_Batronic

[Bobby_Batronic 1994]

4 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Red Storm Rising is worth a read just for what's currently happening.  Cardinal of the Kremlin as well if you like spy stuff.

RSR was his opus in my opinion. Some other good reads, but that one kept me glued as soon as the action started. 
 

The interesting thing to me about the Bear and the Dragon scenario is that is kicks off with a super bug being released in the US by the Chinese. And that hits close to home these days. But agree with the premise. Russia ever caught looking the wrong way with multiple deep invasions by different enemies burned deep into their national conscience is defending against the wrong threat. And their pact with Hitler should be a lifelong lesson about honor among thieves imoho. 

[Armybrat 40824]

32 minutes ago, Bobby_Batronic said:

Another thought on the wood stacked on trucks. 
 

Mud. 
 

Good way to get out of it. And those are bridging units. 

Ok to get out of one mudhole, but what about the next 20 miles of mudflats?

[Bobby_Batronic 1994]

1 minute ago, Armybrat said:

Ok to get out of one mudhole, but what about the next 20 miles of mudflats?

Pick up wood. Rinse and repeat? 

[Armybrat 40824]

SloNeal?

[HiggyBaby 2529]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vespa_150_TAP

I had to zoom in to confirm it wasn’t actually some kind of baguette delivery vehicle

[Armybrat 40824]

[HiggyBaby 2529]

[Nivek 16923]

Fuck Russia and Fuck Putin

Good morning.

[gmr548 16576]

8 hours ago, BamaATL said:

Has anyone been tracking Chinese tank movements and deployments?  I'm betting the Chinese are thinking that if this continues they can easily annex Siberia and every thing east of the Urals.  That's another power that gives a damn about losing people, and the mineral wealth in the region might make it worthwhile to them.  

China is smart enough to know that they can receive all of the benefits of controlling Siberia with little effort by throwing the Russian government a lifeline on terms very favorable to China. They don't have to physically occupy.

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3868]

4 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Do we think they are hitting over 20 tanks a day?  Actual tanks.

 

The group that tallies only confirmed tank losses has the number at 221.  I'd imagine at this rate they are running a little behind in their confirmation process.

Basically, they've lost the equivalent of the US losing all of First Armor in 10ish days.

The Ukrainian steel harvest in the winter of '22 will be legendary.

Edited March 6, 2022 by ShaggyBevo RIP

[South Austin 52456]

It’s 8:17 a.m. and Russia is still piece of dick.

[Bateshorn 9927]

I suspect part of the issue with the Polish plane swap, beyond how do you pull it off and stay technically clean vis-a-vis triggering a Russian escalation, is the Poles likely want their F-16s now, not later.  They are on the front line of this thing and don’t want to be waiting for some AF reserve units to ferry those fighters across the Atlantic.  

[phdhorn 6224]

1 minute ago, Bateshorn said:

I suspect part of the issue with the Polish plane swap, beyond how do you pull it off and stay technically clean vis-a-vis triggering a Russian escalation, is the Poles likely want their F-16s now, not later.  They are on the front line of this thing and don’t want to be waiting for some AF reserve units to ferry those fighters across the Atlantic.  

Yup, plus it'll take the Poles a good bit of training to switch over to the F-16's.  I would think in terms of a few weeks or longer to be ready to use them.  Never mind although the Ukrainians are familiar with MIG's, they have to be re-fitted to proper language etc.  I mean, in any event it'll take several weeks to actually use them in combat.

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3868]

1 minute ago, Bateshorn said:

I suspect part of the issue with the Polish plane swap, beyond how do you pull it off and stay technically clean vis-a-vis triggering a Russian escalation, is the Poles likely want their F-16s now, not later.  They are on the front line of this thing and don’t want to be waiting for some AF reserve units to ferry those fighters across the Atlantic.  

RU dropped 8 missiles on the Vinnytsya airfield last night.  

[Schulz2.0 28951]

6 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

triggering a Russian escalation

[MNLonghornFUKM 8817]

[Homercles 10205]

5 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Red Storm Rising is worth a read just for what's currently happening.  Cardinal of the Kremlin as well if you like spy stuff.

Red Storm is a humorous reference here in that Putin thought he was going to pull an Iceland attack, where the soviets brilliantly took the airfield under air attack + subterfuge with that ‘civilian’ container ship.  

[Nicole44 22059]

Just woke up so SIAP…

[Parliament 14247]

 

[South Austin 52456]

The IDFK LOL vehicle is something Mr. Bean drives.

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3868]

[Incredulity 11655]

5 minutes ago, Nicole44 said:

Just woke up so SIAP…

Ummm….thats the EM50 urban assault vehicle.

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3868]

Grain Reaper doing more Grain Reaper stuff.

 

[Handcruser 2805]

Igor Sushko (@igorsushko) Tweeted:
My translation of the analysis of the current situation in Russia by an active FSB analyst. Buckle up for a long thread and definitely please share far & wide. The full text is over 2000 words. This is a highly insightful look behind the curtain - covers many subjects.

[XYZ 2154]

Why does the Ukrainian president keep asking for NATO to close the skies above Ukraine? Doesn’t he understand that “closing the skies” means NATO shooting down Russian planes, and therefore open war between NATO and Russia and the end of our planet?

[Zhorn96 1773]

3 minutes ago, XYZ said:

Why does the Ukrainian president keep asking for NATO to close the skies above Ukraine? Doesn’t he understand that “closing the skies” means NATO shooting down Russian planes, and therefore open war between NATO and Russia and the end of our planet?

Don’t be dense.  He knows NATO won’t do it, it’s propaganda 

[ABSR 5308]

2 hours ago, Shady Ray said:

 

I mean, this tweet is six hours old, which is apparently the same as the publication time of the NBC article, but at least as of that time the Polish Government doesn't seem to agree.

I think part of this issue they are trying to manage is deniability of giving “Polish” airplanes that fly from Poland into Ukraine.   It is subtle, but something they want to be able to deny to Russia and the world.

Now maybe they sell MiG-29’s to the US in a good deal  for Poland (more value from F-16’s etc), and then the planes are delivered to a neutral country such as Switzerland where the US “sells” them to Ukraine.   Then the now Ukraine aircraft fly to Ukraine from a neutral location.

So no Polish or NATO country planes fly into Ukraine and no Ukrainian planes are allowed to fly from Polish or NATO air bases into Ukraine.

[MNLonghornFUKM 8817]

Igor Sushko (@igorsushko) Tweeted:
My translation of the analysis of the current situation in Russia by an active FSB analyst. Buckle up for a long thread and definitely please share far & wide. The full text is over 2000 words. This is a highly insightful look behind the curtain - covers many subjects.

From details.. putin won’t give a fuck because his days are numbered anyways. Asshole

[Goredho 17397]

39 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

I suspect part of the issue with the Polish plane swap, beyond how do you pull it off and stay technically clean vis-a-vis triggering a Russian escalation, is the Poles likely want their F-16s now, not later.  They are on the front line of this thing and don’t want to be waiting for some AF reserve units to ferry those fighters across the Atlantic.  

I kind of miss the 80s when our secret arms deals to help others fight the Russians without being implicated ourselves were actually secret arms deals to help others fight the Russians without being implicated ourselves.

[TwiceHorn 31440]

8 hours ago, Shady Ray said:

Yes. This is a great idea, Anders. Now hear me out, guys: what we do is to funnel in advanced, modern lethal weaponry to the fighters operating in Idlib. Ya' see, since these fine people dislike Russia, they are therefore by definition good, peaceful democratic folks who have peace at the forefront of their minds. Thennnnn...once Russia is defeated, they will lay down their arms and will certainly create a forward-thinking society of tolerance, in which people of all colors and creeds will then come together and contribute to the betterment of global humanity as a whole, with particular attention paid to lifting up their young women in a respectful, progressive manner. But most importantly, war and conflict there will be over and those people will certainly not turn those weapons upon each other and no innocent civilians will be brutalized or subjugated. There is zero chance of that happening whatsoever.

I mean, we have done this this before and I don't think anyone could say that there was any blowback whatsoever from arming those fine fellows, outside of that little hiccup in Afghanistan.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Jesus, some of these manichean hot takes on Twitter are fucking ridiculous. Can we just stick to supporting Ukraine and let the fucking jihadis and Russians kill each other in Syria and not giving The Artist Formerly Known as Al-Qaeda advanced fucking weaponry. Good God.

RIP PSH.