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Русский корабль - иди нахуй

Eastwood

By Eastwood
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BabaYaga

BabaYaga 15624

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Russia may very well "win" the initial ground war.  But as I keep repeating, then the hard part really starts that will bleed Russia dry.  Good piece outlining what a shit show they got themselves into.

Occupation estimates

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If Russia's invasion succeeds, the Russian Federation will assume de facto responsibility for the well-being of approximately 19 million people. That is equivalent to the population of the American states of New York or Florida. It is also approximately 14% of the current estimated population of Russia. In terms of landmass and population, this will be by far the largest occupation attempted by the Soviet Union or the Russian Federation since the Soviet occupation of Eastern Europe in the years after World War II. Much of the infrastructure needed to sustain the Ukrainian population in the occupied zone is presently being destroyed. Occupation officers will find themselves responsible for supporting millions of people and rebuilding their cities while fending off an active, NATO-backed insurgency.

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I estimate that the Russians would need to deploy 168,000 occupation troops and keep another 168,000 in constant rotation for a total of 336,000 troops. That constitutes over 95% of the entire Russian Ground Force of approximately 350,000 personnel, not including available Russian airborne, special operations, or National Guard troops.

 

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AUS-97HORN
AUS-97HORN

For the love of Christ woman,  stop posting the same fucking thing every 20 mins just to make your neurotic self feel better.     Bring something useful to the thread other than your inane babbli

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InkaUtexas
InkaUtexas

I volunteered today. Log/Admin role to replace people for 30-60 days. The operation is in the west, or should the Orcs win will be pulled back behind the NATO wall. Either way the humanitarian effort

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6225

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, BabaYaga said:

Oh hey, there's a perfect diagram of my wife's moods EVERY FUCKING DAY......

What do you mean "your" wife?  Isn't that everybody's?

PoP means % of likelihood that it'll rain at least .01 on you for the forecast period.

It also means that % of the forecast area that it is expected to rain, i.e. 40% Austin rain chance means that it's definitely gonna rain at least .01" in 40% of the area the NWS puts Austin in.

In other words, no one knows anything.

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Chopper

Chopper 17431

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14 hours ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

So I was listening the General Honore’ last night and he was saying we should not be publicizing our moves with Ukraine with regards to assistance.

 

I'm 4 or 5 pages behind and I don't know if this has been addressed yet but a journalist yesterday said that the Polish MOD was speaking publicly (as in bragging) about giving MiGs to UKR for days and that's what led to public reports about it. He popped off to the wrong person.

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 90642

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6 hours ago, FartingMonk said:

And that's what perplexes me.  I respect your opinion because obviously you are the Ukraine expert but if Russia brought in 200,000 people to fight and the Ukranians have 200,000 people fighting that are actual military.  And we have estimates that Russia have lost 10-15k soldiers.  That's 7 percent of their total unit in two weeks.  That's bad really fucking bad.  So why can't Ukraine win.  Are their numbers worse?

I've seen that Ukraine is not breaking out the numbers they claim in terms of KIA/WIA/POW, and if that's true, I can believe that Russia has had 10,000+ soldiers removed from the battlefield -  thousands killed, many thousands more wounded, and hundreds, if not thousands captured or surrendered.  

Ukraine's biggest problem in terms of what you are talking about is that they started out on the defense, which means they have a lot of soldiers in villages/towns that are not contested, as well as in Western Ukraine, while Russia got to pick where they would concentrate their forces and attack.  That has swung back-and-forth in some areas, with Ukraine going on the offensive in some places.  There are probably a lot of Ukrainian soldiers tied up in the West, helping protect their Air Force and getting weapons/aid/etc. to the Dnieper.

Ukraine can win, in that they can make it costly enough that Russia has to leave, but Russia leaving requires somebody other than Putin in the driver's seat.  We are not to that point yet, and Ukraine hasn't even gone full-on insurgency yet (that's where it will get extremely painful).  Russia does not have the infantry to actually occupy the major cities, and because Kyiv etc. are going to be heavy contested, Russia won't be able to conquer those cities.  I've seen conservative estimates that Russia would need 100,000+ infantry (actual infantry, not soldiers with rifles) to surround and take Kyiv and actually hold it.  

I've harped on it before, but I see shit that would not fly in the US Army - I see plenty of rusty/ill-maintained vehicles and equipment, and the tire guy on twitter has commented on how shitty the Russians maintain their vehicles.  I also don't see optics and night vision gear with the Russians for the most part (a few small, elite units have been pictured with one or the other), while I see plenty of Ukrainians with optics and even some night vision is popping up.

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 90642

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Finally, on the ground, we’ve seen Russians do something unexpected and have not seen pitched battles, and we’ve seen the Ukrainians respond quickly to what they are trying to do. And they are also taking care to preserve their forces and pick their fights. 

I think this is extremely important - it would appear Ukraine has a lot of really competent officers that are not merely throwing themselves and their men into fights they can't win, simply because "FREEDOM" and "SLAVA UKRAINE".  They know the West has their back in terms of getting them the right weapons to fight Russia, and they just need to keep their guys alive and moving.  We see lots of video/photos of large convoys destroyed, but even if they are just taking out one or two tanks here and there and then fading away, that's the way they need to fight this - play the long game.

Putin can't handle the long game.

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Nivek

Nivek 17409

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21 hours ago, ShaggyBevo RIP said:

Dr Mike Martin ⛵️@ThreshedThoughtArmies that don’t recover their dead from the battlefield tend not to remain cohesive fighting forces11:43 AM · Mar 5, 2022·Twitter for iPhone274 Retweets17 Quote Tweets1,983 Likes

https://twitter.com/ThreshedThought/status/1500165181783089163?s=20&t=N9Qi1cxDjddVCN7nFvmgsA

Lost Athens the Peloponnesian War.  (basically they haphazardly fielded a Navy, kicked Sparta's ass, but a storm came and they didn't recover men and many drown.  Athens responded by executing these competent generals, and then replacing them with incompetent ones, who let their ships go unguarded while they foraged for food, ignored Alcibiades advice and offer of help with troops, and they were attacked unaware and completely destroyed. Allowing Lysander to block shipping to routes and thus end the war.)   This message brought to you by Nivek.  Purveyor extraordinaire of information you did not care about but read anyway.   

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Parliament

Parliament 14594

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11 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

I think this is extremely important - it would appear Ukraine has a lot of really competent officers that are not merely throwing themselves and their men into fights they can't win, simply because "FREEDOM" and "SLAVA UKRAINE".  They know the West has their back in terms of getting them the right weapons to fight Russia, and they just need to keep their guys alive and moving.  We see lots of video/photos of large convoys destroyed, but even if they are just taking out one or two tanks here and there and then fading away, that's the way they need to fight this - play the long game.

Putin can't handle the long game.

Yeah it's obvious these guys have been trained by Iraq and Afghanistan veterans. And I can imagine those vets really enjoy being on this side.

And the Ukrainian trainees are voracious learners.

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Bateshorn

Bateshorn 9991

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Posted
12 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Yeah it's obvious these guys have been trained by Iraq and Afghanistan veterans. And I can imagine those vets really enjoy being on this side.

And the Ukrainian trainees are voracious learners.

I’m wondering how many SOF guys have “resigned” their commissions and joined the foreign legion. 

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 90642

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And a comment on the numbers of Russians taken off the battlefield, whether killed or wounded or captured This is from March 2nd (a month ago, even if technically it's 7 days ago).

https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-says-498-its-soldiers-killed-1597-wounded-ukraine-ria-2022-03-02/

Russia says 498 of its soldiers killed, 1,597 wounded.  Would not admit to any surrendering/etc.

We know Russia would not come out with the actual numbers, even if they knew the true numbers - it's arguable that higher-level officers probably don't have a grasp on things at the platoon/company level.  Thats' a week ago, and I think you can easily double those numbers. (Notice the Russians mentioned 498, wouldn't want to hit 500 dead, since psychologically that's a major number, just like something being priced at 4.98 instead of $5.00).

If on March 2nd they had 1,000 dead soldiers and 3,000 wounded, and say 500 captured/AWOL/surrendered, that's 4,500 soldiers taken off the battlefield.

I could easily believe they've lost the same amount or more since March 2nd, given the amount of weapons flowing in and what we've seen.  Oryx has counted almost 1,000 Russian vehicles/aircraft/etc. removed from Russian control and the number is much higher (Oryx only counts vehicles with photo/video proof).  386 of those vehicles were destroyed.  That could easily count for 500+ dead Russians on their own, if not more (APCs are carrying 7-8 soldiers plus 2-3 crew).

Anyways, it's not out of the realm of possibility that they are well past 2,500 dead, 7,000 wounded, and 500-1000 POWs/AWOL/etc. which is pushing up close to 10,000.  

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Chopper

Chopper 17431

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Did Mick Ryan's (Aussie Major Gen Retired) analysis last night make it into this thread? Fascinating read.

Russia committed around 55% of their total ground forces to Ukraine. That compares to 24% of what the US committed in Iraq. Such a large number of troops shows RU probably didn't expect to have to use them. They appear to have no plans for providing rest for fatigued troops or back-up supplies or replacement weapons. Now we'll see how they adapt but they face significant challenges and are at a disadvantage due to the size of their undertaking.

 

 

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BabaYaga

BabaYaga 15624

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25 minutes ago, NoName said:

 

That of course is fucking glorious and I am planning as we speak my next career as an underworld crime boss so I can get my hands on a few of those. 

BUT, in the meantime, how many videos are they going to have of isolated tracked vehicles getting smoked?  Where's the infantry surrounding and supporting them?  I'd assume they would be fanned out protecting them?  Nor is this abandoned, as they never waste such valuable hardware.

Not that I mind.  Blow all those fuckers up.  Just seems so obvious? 

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BabaYaga

BabaYaga 15624

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

I’m wondering how many SOF guys have “resigned” their commissions and joined the foreign legion. 

Probably a shit ton of "contractors" are over there (think Blackwater).  I also have zero doubts that there are SAD, CAG, and Devgru dudes playing ninja as well under the auspices of being "retired" in case they are compromised.  Last I heard we have SOF guys operating in more than a hundred countries today.  No way they are not helping the UA as well.

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BabaYaga

BabaYaga 15624

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3 minutes ago, Chopper said:

Such a large number of troops shows RU probably didn't expect to have to use them. They appear to have no plans for providing rest for fatigued troops or back-up supplies or replacement weapons. Now we'll see how they adapt but they face significant challenges and are at a disadvantage due to the size of their undertaking.

Yeppers.  It's telling in itself that they pivoted so quickly to Belarus backup requirements.  

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ShaggyBevo RIP

ShaggyBevo RIP 3873

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Posted (edited)
9 hours ago, FartingMonk said:

I wish I can get a clearer picture of the battlefield in Ukraine.  One minute it's Ukrainians partisan farmers wiping out entire columns.  Then it's Ukrainian commandos doing ninja stuff to top notch Russian killers, then it's Ukrainian regulars encircling and killing battalions.  Now it's Russian generals getting hit by 1500 meter sniper shots.  6 months ago if asked about Ukraine and you would hear it was one of the most corrupt and inept countries to exist.  But all this time they were hiding some super army.  

Reading retired Major General Mick Ryan's twitter he said to plan was too complex, particularly forces from four different starting places meeting up,  and RU didn't bring enough troops to accomplish it.  Which gets back to yes man or fall out of a building.

EDIT- didn't mean to long cat dude's twitter on here

 

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 90642

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3 hours ago, Hefeweizen said:

Sanctions are crushing Russia but don't affect the battlefield.  Ukraine holding out for another 4 to 6 weeks would probably be a win for them.  At that point it switches to an insurgency.

Sanctions will affect the battlefield soon enough - without foreign currency coming in, along with the sanctions, it will affect Russia's abilities to bring in the components they need to manufacture replacement vehicles (or perhaps even just fix what's been damaged).  

Russia will have to decide how many more vehicles, etc. they can lose before it affects their national (and internal) security (due to a lack of manufacturing).

Also, now that thousands of Stingers have made their way into Ukraine (on top of the Javelins, NLAWs, etc.), that'll cut drastically into their helicopter operations, which will hamper the Russian ground forces and make those vehicles even more vulnerable to Ukrainian ambushes.  And that's before IEDs are fully in affect.

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Laxtonto

Laxtonto 13286

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Posted (edited)
58 minutes ago, NoName said:

 

My question is under what military doctrine are you letting a lone unit that is extremely vulnerable and yet very valuable just roll out alone, knowing that armor is extremely vulnerable to these hit and run attacks?

No infantry to help hunt down the anti-armor sniper. No infantry that can help scan the skies for UAV/drones.

I get it, life is cheap in war, but in this type of scenario, meat is cheap, metal is not. It is always better to send infantry to support the metal than to leave it alone on an island. It is almost like the old view of battle of sending out a tank to scout because all they have is machine guns and small explosives, while totally ignoring the major evolution in handheld antitank weaponry.

 

*** And yes, I know that the Ukraine army/militia gets to choose the battlefield for these types of engagements and that the terrain seems to be very helpful in setting up these types of ambushes, but that should make it that much more obvious to not just roll a tank out alone on the road. It is almost like the Russians dont expect the Ukraine to have and use technology to their advantage. Maybe too many commanders that cut their teeth fighting low tech insurgents in Syria ect and nobody still understands the scalable impact of technology in a theater of engagement.

Edited by Laxtonto
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ShaggyBevo RIP

ShaggyBevo RIP 3873

Posted
Posted (edited)
24 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Sanctions will affect the battlefield soon enough - without foreign currency coming in, along with the sanctions, it will affect Russia's abilities to bring in the components they need to manufacture replacement vehicles (or perhaps even just fix what's been damaged).  

Russia will have to decide how many more vehicles, etc. they can lose before it affects their national (and internal) security (due to a lack of manufacturing).

Also, now that thousands of Stingers have made their way into Ukraine (on top of the Javelins, NLAWs, etc.), that'll cut drastically into their helicopter operations, which will hamper the Russian ground forces and make those vehicles even more vulnerable to Ukrainian ambushes.  And that's before IEDs are fully in affect.

Major General Mick Ryan Brought up this point as well. 55% of RU's total ground forces are committed in Ukraine, we had 25% in Iraq, where do you pull reinforcements from and what are you leaving undermanned/unguarded as a consequence. He's also predicting RU will have to double their entire ground forces as they are going to need 300K just to occupy Ukraine and rotate forces.

Edited by ShaggyBevo RIP
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Nicole44

Nicole44 22310

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Posted
37 minutes ago, Handcruser said:

Question-
If RU uses biological weapons does NATO go in?

This makes me physically sick! China unleashes a virus and their partner in crime   Russia is unleashing hell on earth. 
we are holding back on our options I understand but it’s not like Putin has the only red button on the nuke. I remember during the Cuban uprising this past summer we backed the fuck off bc Russia. Fuck Russia. And fuck China! And fuck all y’all that think they are somehow different. Same control of their people same bitches since the Dawn of time.

 

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The Dog

The Dog 44856

Posted
Posted

 

Explanation of Putin's motives by a Russian expert (professor at aggy's government school)

tl;dw version:

1. Plan was to win in 3 days and then collect surrenders.

2. Putin is having issues at home (lots of domestic issues) The invasion was meant as a distraction from problems or an attempt to boost his standing at home;

3. Putin lives in an echo chamber and the people he talks to are dependent on giving him good news in order to keep their positions and/or wealth

4. Compares it to the 1905 war with Japan where the czar thought a quick war with Japan would help with issues at home. 

5. This will embolden his opponents at home even in spite of his attempts to crack down. 

6. Russian society is on the verge of breaking even though he appears "coup-proof" -  the economy is close to collapse within a few weeks once reserves get used up. 

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