Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[RPM 26628]

34 minutes ago, Sbbruin said:

Zelensky is a fucking stud.  He may not have been when he was elected. But talk about rising to the moment.  The dude is historic.

I want to watch his TV series Servant of the People. It's what got him elected.

 

[NorthLoop 14466]

1 minute ago, BamaATL said:

The Russian people are not victims, nor are they innocents in all this.  They traded a bit of wealth in exchange for turning a blind eye to an autocrat.  They've had 25 years to affect internal change, yet continually chose to ignore this and the mounting problems that came with Putin, instead to take vacations in places like Thailand.  Saying that they turned a blind eye to it is actually generous, they in fact cheered it on.  Are they directly responsible, no, but I have (my own opinion, and mine only) a hard time feeling bad for their current plight, especially when you consider that there are people dead in Ukraine who are truly innocent and victims.  I'm not rooting for the terrors of massive austerity that are about to occur in Russia, but there is such a thing of reaping what you sow.  When you turn a blind eye to dictator because its economically agreeable to you in the short term, don't expect me to cry on your behalf when those chicken's come home to roost.  

I want to agree... but then I think about our country. We have a lot of really really shitty people in this country, and sometimes that manifests itself into looking like we are all that shitty. My thought right now is - if you're Russian and a good person, but you feel like you couldn't do shit about Putin, and you decided to stay in Russia, I don't wish harm on you. But you're gonna have to suck it up and suffer a bit. If the suffering gets too hard, then do something or leave. You being poor is better than you getting bombs dropped on you like your cousins in Ukraine. 

[atomheartbevo 90649]

1 minute ago, BamaATL said:

The Russian people are not victims, nor are they innocents in all this.  They traded a bit of wealth in exchange for turning a blind eye to an autocrat.  They've had 25 years to affect internal change, yet continually chose to ignore this and the mounting problems that came with Putin, instead to take vacations in places like Thailand.  Saying that they turned a blind eye to it is actually generous, they in fact cheered it on.  Are they directly responsible, no, but I have (my own opinion, and mine only) a hard time feeling bad for their current plight, especially when you consider that there are people dead in Ukraine who are truly innocent and victims.  I'm not rooting for the terrors of massive austerity that are about to occur in Russia, but there is such a thing of reaping what you sow.  When you turn a blind eye to dictator because its economically agreeable to you in the short term, don't expect me to cry on your behalf when those chicken's come home to roost.  

There's 144 million people in Russia.  There's less than a million employees of the national Russian police agency (and a big chunk of those are going to be admin/support types and not the guys in black jumpsuits rounding up dissenters) with another million or two in the military (again, a big chunk will be admin/support).  There's obviously other agencies that can do shit, but nothing as big as the Russian Police or the military.

There comes a point at which you can't feel sorry for 144 million people who could clearly rise up and boot out the existing powers-that-be.  

People might say "oh they are afraid of being rounded up and killed" to which I'd say if they won't do anything about Putin and his cronies, they need to shut the fuck up and take the loss and stop bitching about sanctions or not getting Starbucks or Levi's or iPhones.

But it wouldn't take all that many tens of thousands in each major city to overwhelm the police.  And there's going to be a lot of out-of-work Russian youth who are going to watch their standard-of-living shrink to that of their great-grandparents under Stalin.

[atomheartbevo 90649]

18 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

 

10 miles from Poland.  Putin is getting close to Grittyska, an ancient city whose name's meaning is thought to translate as "Fucketh Around and Findeth Out"

[NorthLoop 14466]

6 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

There's 144 million people in Russia.  There's less than a million employees of the national Russian police agency (and a big chunk of those are going to be admin/support types and not the guys in black jumpsuits rounding up dissenters) with another million or two in the military (again, a big chunk will be admin/support).  There's obviously other agencies that can do shit, but nothing as big as the Russian Police or the military.

There comes a point at which you can't feel sorry for 144 million people who could clearly rise up and boot out the existing powers-that-be.  

People might say "oh they are afraid of being rounded up and killed" to which I'd say if they won't do anything about Putin and his cronies, they need to shut the fuck up and take the loss and stop bitching about sanctions or not getting Starbucks or Levi's or iPhones.

But it wouldn't take all that many tens of thousands in each major city to overwhelm the police.  And there's going to be a lot of out-of-work Russian youth who are going to watch their standard-of-living shrink to that of their great-grandparents under Stalin.

I hope you're right. And I think this is the thinking of all the western sanctions. Shit's gonna get rough there, and at some point that powder keg is gonna blow. 

[atomheartbevo 90649]

2 minutes ago, NorthLoop said:

I hope you're right. And I think this is the thinking of all the western sanctions. Shit's gonna get rough there, and at some point that powder keg is gonna blow. 

I'm not saying they'll get in the streets.

But I also don't see this as a situation like North Korea where you have generations of people who have put up with this shit, and that's all they've ever known.

The Russian youth of the last 30 years has had a lot more creature comforts than the Russian Youth of say 1960-1990, and it's a question of whether they will give them up willingly, and accept lines for bread or whatever.

Unfortunately a lot more Ukrainians are going to die before a lot of Russians truly start suffering beyond losing TikTok or Facebook or YouTube or whatever.

[BamaATL 16593]

2 minutes ago, NorthLoop said:

I hope you're right. And I think this is the thinking of all the western sanctions. Shit's gonna get rough there, and at some point that powder keg is gonna blow. 

Regrettably, this optimistic thinking. Russia is still a very disconnected place.  There are really only two cities Putin has to present as doing well, St. Petersberg and Moscow.  He will, at all costs, continue to prop these two up.  Everywhere else is rightly fucked.  To the Russians in Moscow and S Petersberg, the rest of the country is filled with nothing but modern day serfs.  Ironically, these serfs are the ones in Ukraine as infantry with a few officers commanding (hello Wadi).  Russia is a "world power" with 2 cities, and then a bunch of shittier Macon's (GA).  

[MillerEP 30907]

47 minutes ago, NorthLoop said:

@MillerEP if you were a younger single guy would you be thinking about going over there to fight? 

Yes. I've thought a lot about it, practically every day since this kicked off. I've been dreaming of being over there a lot recently.

I still have to support Mo, so if my job would still pay me and if my job would be there still if I got back, I would've left already. I think the draw is that this is a just war. I have the ability and training to help, and it honestly tears at me that I can't/I'm not. I feel lesser.

Edited March 13, 2022 by MillerEP

[BamaATL 16593]

43 minutes ago, NorthLoop said:

@MillerEP if you were a younger single guy would you be thinking about going over there to fight? 

I land on a different side of the equation, my wife is a two time combat veteran of Operation Enduring Freedom.  I'm a civilian.  She wants to go, because she is that angry over our collective lack of response.  I continue to explain why we can't, but right is right, and I have no good answer beyond saying politics.  She isn't wrong, what is being done to the Ukrainian people is disgraceful, and its very black and white.  

[NorthLoop 14466]

21 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

Yes. I've thought a lot about it, practically every day since this kicked off. I've been dreaming of being over there a lot recently.

I still have to support Mo, so if my job would still pay me and if my job would be there still if I got back, I would've left already. I think the draw is that this is a just war. I have the ability and training to help, and it honestly tears at me that I can't/I'm not.

It's been a decade since we've hung out but I knew this would be your response.  I think at 40 if I was still single this would be something that might make me get off my ass and go do something. Of course I don't have any military training so the legion wouldn't accept me but I'd go hang out with Brisket's kids and make tacos or something. 

[MillerEP 30907]

 

[tx 3 putt 78679]

I hope those Russian pigs die a horrible death 

[Scheiss Meister 8470]

Burning alive in a brewed up tank is pretty horrible.  I hope those Russian pigs die that way.

[tx 3 putt 78679]

4 minutes ago, Scheiss Meister said:

Burning alive in a brewed up tank is pretty horrible.  I hope those Russian pigs die that way.

 

hopefully 30 seconds before the missile hits, they get orders that they're going home

[NorthLoop 14466]

10 hours ago, Zonahorn said:

That is a lot of high-ranking officers dying.

Phillip Rivers just doesn't now when to retire. 

[atomheartbevo 90649]

Regarding @MillerEP tweet above, if Belarus won’t formally put troops into Ukraine and/or Belarus troops mutiny, what does Putin do?  Does he worry that Belarus could be slipping?  Does he have to dedicate resources to controlling Belarus or its military?

[Rimbo 27019]

2 hours ago, BamaATL said:

The Russian people are not victims, nor are they innocents in all this.  They traded a bit of wealth in exchange for turning a blind eye to an autocrat.  They've had 25 years to affect internal change, yet continually chose to ignore this and the mounting problems that came with Putin, instead to take vacations in places like Thailand.  Saying that they turned a blind eye to it is actually generous, they in fact cheered it on.  Are they directly responsible, no, but I have (my own opinion, and mine only) a hard time feeling bad for their current plight, especially when you consider that there are people dead in Ukraine who are truly innocent and victims.  I'm not rooting for the terrors of massive austerity that are about to occur in Russia, but there is such a thing of reaping what you sow.  When you turn a blind eye to dictator because its economically agreeable to you in the short term, don't expect me to cry on your behalf when those chicken's come home to roost.  

That is a terrible, awful, and most of all easy judgment to make with flawless hindsight and great distance. It is also profoundly and wilfully ignorant.

[clapclapclap 9000]

2 hours ago, MillerEP said:

Volyn oblast is in the northwest corner, on the border with Poland and Belarus.  Lviv oblast is the next one south.  Looking at Google maps, there's a ton of Ukrainian military facilities to the northwest of Lviv.  

If true, invading Volyn would be the move to cut off supply lines, but could also cut off most of the refugee flows.

Latest I see is 20 dead in the western missile strikes, unclear if that includes any foreign advisors.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/13/russia-widens-attacks-on-ukraine-with-missile-strike-on-base-close-to-polish-border

Edited March 13, 2022 by clapclapclap

[Immaculate Vibes 114]

Not sure how prominent this org is. 
 

 

[Orange&White 5573]

45 minutes ago, Immaculate Vibes said:

Not sure how prominent this org is. 
 

 

This is good info. Thanks.

[Francisco 2.0 32592]

 

 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13731]

6 minutes ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

 

 

Crazy. Not only would that draw NATO in to the war, it would most likely involve NATO demanding or forcing a regime change of Putin.

Do some in Russia believe that we are so afraid of their nuclear weapons that they can just do whatever?

[Bozo_Casanova 26851]

11 hours ago, cactusflinthead said:

Getting mighty dusty in here

 

Cried watching this

[cactusflinthead 27627]

 

[Constant 6886]

 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13731]

3 hours ago, Immaculate Vibes said:

Not sure how prominent this org is. 
 

 

Really good read about seemingly realistic macro outcomes of this war. And that China going with Russian or even neutral is bad for China.

[Nivek 17415]

What artillery and direct tank fire can do. Fuckers. 
 

Can you point out what you are seeing here?

[Francisco 2.0 32592]

$12 billion in lost commercial aircraft.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/12/business/russia-airlines-planes.html

Quote

Hope has faded quickly for a handful of Western companies eager to recover planes leased to airlines in Russia, with the authorities there intent on keeping foreign-registered aircraft within the country and President Vladimir V. Putin openly discussing nationalizing the assets of foreign businesses.

 

Quote

As of Thursday, there were 523 aircraft leased to Russian carriers by companies outside the country, according to IBA, a consulting firm. Of those, 101 are on lease to S7 Airlines and 89 to Aeroflot. Both airlines have stopped flying internationally, eliminating any chance of repossessing the planes on foreign soil.

“The general consensus is: That’s it, we will not be able to recover them,” said Vitaly Guzhva, a finance professor at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University.

 

Quote

Dr. Guzhva and others who attended a recent industry conference in San Diego said the predicament for the leasing companies was the talk of the event, held by the International Society of Transport Aircraft Trading. Experts there generally aligned around the view that the companies were facing the possibility of huge losses, they said. All told, the planes are worth as much as $12 billion, according to Ishka, an aviation consulting firm.

 

 

Spoiler

AerCap, the world’s largest leasing company for commercial aircraft, has 142 leased planes in Russia, more than any other company, according to IBA. AerCap declined to comment, but said in a recent financial disclosure that its aircraft in Russia account for about 5 percent of its fleet. SMBC Aviation Capital, which did not respond to a request for comment, is the second-most exposed business, with 35 leased planes in Russia.

Under European sanctions, lessors such as AerCap and SMBC, which are based in Ireland, have until March 28 to terminate contracts with the Russian airlines and get their planes back.

On Thursday, David Walton, the chief operating officer of BOC Aviation, a leasing company based in Singapore, said the March 28 deadline was “frankly an unrealistic timetable” to get hundreds of planes out of the country. As of late February, Russian airlines were using 18 BOC-owned aircraft, or about 4.8 percent of the company’s fleet.

Nick Popovich, whose Indiana firm, Sage-Popovich, performs aircraft repossessions, said he had been contacted by some major global lessors interested in recovering their planes from Russia. He declined to name the companies, but said they mostly acknowledged that it was a lost cause. Mr. Popovich said he was still investigating what could be done, but didn’t immediately see a viable way to recover the planes.

“We won’t accept an assignment that we’re not sure we can do,” he said. “I’m still doing research on what we can and can’t do legally.”

While a few planes may have been recovered abroad before international flights were halted, they are of little use to their owners without the meticulous maintenance records that accompany every aircraft and are often stored by airlines themselves, experts said. And the longer a plane is stuck in Russia, the greater the concern that work on the jet’s body, engines and flight systems may not be logged, causing its value to plummet.

“Unless you have those records, the aircraft is virtually worthless,” said Quentin Brasie, the founder and chief executive of ACI Aviation Consulting. “They’re literally more important than the asset itself.”

The financial consequences of the planes’ being held in Russia could be far-reaching, too. Such aircraft are financed in a variety of ways, including funding from banks, leasing companies themselves, and investors in securitized debt.

Insurers and reinsurers may be on the hook, too, experts said. Aviation war insurers, in particular, are concerned and facing their biggest potential losses since the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, according to Russell Group, a data and analytics company. Aircraft insurance premiums have been on the rise for years as the industry struggled to counter recent annual losses.

As prices went up during the pandemic, insurers cut coverage, according to Suki Basi, the founder of Russell Group. At the least, the situation in Russia will probably have a similar effect.

“You pay more and you get less coverage,” he said. “If it does nothing to premiums, it will do that.”

There will be lasting consequences for Russia, too. The crisis is likely to drive up the cost of doing business there generally and may cause some leasing companies and insurers to swear off the Russian market.

And while nationalizing the planes may provide a short-term benefit to Russia in keeping domestic flights moving, it won’t be long before carriers there grow desperate for spare parts. With Boeing and Airbus refusing to offer parts and support to Russian airlines, those carriers are likely to start cannibalizing the planes they have on hand, devaluing those aircraft.

Ken Hill, who also performs aircraft repossessions, knows that first hand. Two years ago, a U.S. leasing company hired Mr. Hill to recover three Boeing 737s at a small airport just outside Moscow, he said. The owner of the company that had leased the planes resisted his efforts to recover them, he said, but, after a few days Mr. Hill gained access to the hangar — only to find that the aircraft had been gutted.

“The airplanes were there, but guess what wasn’t there? The engines,” he said. “They had robbed all three airplanes. They were basically just junk carcasses.”

What happens next is anyone’s guess, even among experts. “We all have a lot of questions,” said David Tokoph, the chief executive of mba Aviation, an advisory firm, summing up the conversations at the San Diego conference. “We all have a lot of opinions. And we don’t have a lot of answers.”

 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13731]

The aircraft lease issue might be worthy of a thread on its own. Someone is going to take a hit. I assume aircraft leased to other authoritarian countries are going to see higher rates soon.

[InkaUtexas 26889]

8 hours ago, MillerEP said:

Yes. I've thought a lot about it, practically every day since this kicked off. I've been dreaming of being over there a lot recently.

I still have to support Mo, so if my job would still pay me and if my job would be there still if I got back, I would've left already. I think the draw is that this is a just war. I have the ability and training to help, and it honestly tears at me that I can't/I'm not. I feel lesser.

Don't. Find a way to help. Shit, I went through my gear yesterday and realized I have more back up crap than the average UA troop. Another set of boots on the ground and another mouth to feed won't help right now. Good resupply and logistics will. Got friends in country so I back them up with overwatch on the OSINT channels. Lets them sleep and stay mission focused. Get ready for the rebuild. That is where they will need some help. One thing to keep in mind is they are going to be tired when this is over, so that is when us old farts can step in with experience and compassion. But yeah, the dreams are there. Shall we form a Longhorn BN? 

[956 Worldwide 35594]

So the base Russia hit in Western Ukraine is about ten miles from where I grabbed this photo. Guards say they heard it and it shook the ground, they opened the gates and basically rushed a column of people across.  The base in Javoriv is where NATO/Ukraine did lots of joint training.  Still no news if any foreigners died or were injured. Likely a message- Russians don’t want more arms coming in.

Its amazing how organized and efficient the Poles are and how kind they are to the folks arriving.  How long can it hold up? Absolute feeling of surreality and exhaustion.

 

[AUS-97HORN 12051]

That death notification is never good, but I sure hope the NYT's family was told before twitter put his name and badge on blast. 

being a war journalist is a very dangerous gig, but finding out within hours of his death from twitter is probably the worst way to discover that info. 

[Ag with kids 581]

1 hour ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

 

 

Is someone reading the Adolph Hitler Military Field Manual or something?

[Pato del Muerto 53502]

10 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

So the base Russia hit in Western Ukraine is about ten miles from where I grabbed this photo. Guards say they heard it and it shook the ground, they opened the gates and basically rushed a column of people across.  The base in Javoriv is where NATO/Ukraine did lots of joint training.  Still no news if any foreigners died or were injured. Likely a message- Russians don’t want more arms coming in.

Its amazing how organized and efficient the Poles are and how kind they are to the folks arriving.  How long can it hold up? Absolute feeling of surreality and exhaustion.

 

Re the poles’ kindness:

my wife has some international contacts for business reasons, and also has met a Ukrainian mom at the tennis lessons my kids go to. That woman has friends or family stuck in Odessa. Wife apparently knows someone somewhere in Poland. The polish person told her to pass on the message that if the Ukrainians can get out of Odessa and find their way to Poland, to contact them and they will find a place for them to live, and that they’ve been doing so already with others. 

[EuroHorn 3295]

1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Crazy. Not only would that draw NATO in to the war, it would most likely involve NATO demanding or forcing a regime change of Putin.

Do some in Russia believe that we are so afraid of their nuclear weapons that they can just do whatever?

From reading the comments that clip is months old and it is not within the context of the current war 

[Junior Miller 1502]

8 hours ago, BamaATL said:

The Russian people are not victims, nor are they innocents in all this.  They traded a bit of wealth in exchange for turning a blind eye to an autocrat.  They've had 25 years to affect internal change, yet continually chose to ignore this and the mounting problems that came with Putin, instead to take vacations in places like Thailand.  Saying that they turned a blind eye to it is actually generous, they in fact cheered it on.  Are they directly responsible, no, but I have (my own opinion, and mine only) a hard time feeling bad for their current plight, especially when you consider that there are people dead in Ukraine who are truly innocent and victims.  I'm not rooting for the terrors of massive austerity that are about to occur in Russia, but there is such a thing of reaping what you sow.  When you turn a blind eye to dictator because its economically agreeable to you in the short term, don't expect me to cry on your behalf when those chicken's come home to roost.  

Holy shit. I don't know if you're American but look at what we've done, what we've "failed to stop", and where we're headed. I know I personally hate it so much but could do nothing to change any of it. So I've moved to New Zealand for 7 months out of the year and come back to Texas for December through April to tend to in person work and be with family. 

[InkaUtexas 26889]

15 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Re the poles’ kindness:

my wife has some international contacts for business reasons, and also has met a Ukrainian mom at the tennis lessons my kids go to. That woman has friends or family stuck in Odessa. Wife apparently knows someone somewhere in Poland. The polish person told her to pass on the message that if the Ukrainians can get out of Odessa and find their way to Poland, to contact them and they will find a place for them to live, and that they’ve been doing so already with others. 

Maybe Poland deserves the cover of Time. What they are doing is amazing. And I would love to see us fly out Ukranians on our returning C 17's. We are all fighting this dick fuck and Poland needs to know that we are there to help with more than supplying equipment. Have said this before. I am not Surly 1%, but I have half a house that is empty and would be happy to let a family live there. And before someone jumps on me about "what about a Venezuelan family", yep, them too. Home of the Free baby. We are the Beacon on the Hill. 

[InkaUtexas 26889]

Yeah, that is what I want to eat when fighting. 

 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13731]

Russia upset about military aid is very telling about how wrong this war is going for them. Initially they were pushing back on any air support of Ukraine because they were going to win this war in 2 weeks.  Small arms assistance from the west wasn’t going to change that outcome.

russia might have to escalate their threats to the West soon as they have few levers to pull. 

[SL Xpress 7609]

23 hours ago, GabrielsHorn said:

If you want to see how Russia is pushing stuff:

Think these were the same guys that CNN ran into. 

That was at Andropov.

It was An Airport Too Far

More accurately it was several airports too far. 

[Francisco 2.0 32592]

 

 

[Chopper 17432]

4 hours ago, Immaculate Vibes said:

Not sure how prominent this org is. 
 

 

Very fascinating article. The author is one of China's top foreign policy thinkers. Very prominent. He argues that Putin has inadvertently united the West, plus Japan, Australia, NZ and Taiwan, and boosted democracy. Really interesting - he argues that that China has a week or 2 to decide which side its future will be better with  -- democracies or the authoritarian side of the world. He argues that China is the only country in the world that can (and should) convince Putin to end the war.

[InkaUtexas 26889]

3 minutes ago, Chopper said:

Very fascinating article. The author is one of China's top foreign policy thinkers. Very prominent. He argues that Putin has inadvertently united the West, plus Japan, Australia, NZ and Taiwan, and boosted democracy. Really interesting - he argues that that China has a week or 2 to decide which side its future will be better with  -- democracies or the authoritarian side of the world. He argues that China is the only country in the world that can (and should) convince Putin to end the war.

or say fuck it and take Siberia. Ya know, a Peacekeeping operation. 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13731]

5 minutes ago, Chopper said:

Very fascinating article. The author is one of China's top foreign policy thinkers. Very prominent. He argues that Putin has inadvertently united the West, plus Japan, Australia, NZ and Taiwan, and boosted democracy. Really interesting - he argues that that China has a week or 2 to decide which side its future will be better with  -- democracies or the authoritarian side of the world. He argues that China is the only country in the world that can (and should) convince Putin to end the war.

You have to assume that China is asking Russia of their plan now that their rapid win plan failed. I don’t see Russia being successful in asking China for major assistance in winning the war and/or propping up the Russian economy.

Edited March 13, 2022 by Nice Guy Eddie

[Pato del Muerto 53502]

I don’t  know if the west can do to China economically what it has done to Russia. But I’m confident that China really doesn’t want that to happen to them.  I think there’s a level of MAD there between goods and debts.   It there’s bound to be other countries that would be happy to take on a portion of china’s manufacturing capability over time. 

[Guest Lobo]

Why are supposed autocratic-loving "Billionaires" asking for financial assistance to replace aircraft?  Can't they just foot the bill on their own?  

[InkaUtexas 26889]

 

[Immaculate Vibes 114]

15 minutes ago, Chopper said:

Very fascinating article. The author is one of China's top foreign policy thinkers. Very prominent. He argues that Putin has inadvertently united the West, plus Japan, Australia, NZ and Taiwan, and boosted democracy. Really interesting - he argues that that China has a week or 2 to decide which side its future will be better with  -- democracies or the authoritarian side of the world. He argues that China is the only country in the world that can (and should) convince Putin to end the war.

The guy who shared it on my feed said this guy is part of the Shanghai set. Evidently if there’s any internal challenge to Xi it will come from there. I wrongly presumed that he had the whole country locked up at this point. 
 

China is pretty authoritarian currently and trending harder that way so this seems like a subtle, or many not, shot across the bow. 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13731]

5 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

I don’t  know if the west can do to China economically what it has done to Russia. But I’m confident that China really doesn’t want that to happen to them.  I think there’s a level of MAD there between goods and debts.   It there’s bound to be other countries that would be happy to take on a portion of china’s manufacturing capability over time. 

100%. We never could cut off China like we did Russia. My bet is China is telling Russia that the deal for waiting for the Olympics to end was that China would stay quiet/neutral with a Russian positive spin. But that deal wasn’t perpetual.

Also I don’t see China being on board with Russia attacking nato or Russia using tactical nukes.

[Brisketexan 106899]

Not sure how prominent this org is. 
 
 

Really good read about seemingly realistic macro outcomes of this war. And that China going with Russian or even neutral is bad for China.

Re the poles’ kindness:
my wife has some international contacts for business reasons, and also has met a Ukrainian mom at the tennis lessons my kids go to. That woman has friends or family stuck in Odessa. Wife apparently knows someone somewhere in Poland. The polish person told her to pass on the message that if the Ukrainians can get out of Odessa and find their way to Poland, to contact them and they will find a place for them to live, and that they’ve been doing so already with others. 

Yep. Poland has been shoved to the front of the world stage, and is performing brilliantly.

Very fascinating article. The author is one of China's top foreign policy thinkers. Very prominent. He argues that Putin has inadvertently united the West, plus Japan, Australia, NZ and Taiwan, and boosted democracy. Really interesting - he argues that that China has a week or 2 to decide which side its future will be better with  -- democracies or the authoritarian side of the world. He argues that China is the only country in the world that can (and should) convince Putin to end the war.

That take is fascinating - thanks for sharing.
It’s hard to see an upside to siding with Putin. As the piece noted, even if he “wins,” he loses. He has made Russia a criminal pariah state, and there’s no going back while he remains in charge. How is it a good move to tie yourself to him? It can’t be.