Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[InkaUtexas 25951]

The war is not going to end. I said before Bunker Dwarf went in he was going to push to the river and blast the cities. I stick with that. it is all the small peckered mole has left. 

And I agree. I was in Bihac (Western Bosnia) watching the refugees come back after being kicked out of Austria and Germany after years of living there. So fucking sad. But countries can only sustain refugees for so long. Where do the Ukrainians go if Bunker Dwarf wins? 

As for hate, well Europeans have a different way of seeing it than we do. You know that. 

[BamaATL 16593]

2 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

The war is not going to end. I said before Bunker Dwarf went in he was going to push to the river and blast the cities. I stick with that. it is all the small peckered mole has left. 

And I agree. I was in Bihac (Western Bosnia) watching the refugees come back after being kicked out of Austria and Germany after years of living there. So fucking sad. But countries can only sustain refugees for so long. Where do the Ukrainians go if Bunker Dwarf wins? 

As for hate, well Europeans have a different way of seeing it than we do. You know that. 

I gotta imagine its human nature to be generous until resources start to become scarce.  Hopefully we've all collectively learned that supporting refugee concentrated areas with aid and resources is critical to preventing ugly situations.  

Unfortunately, it sure doesn't look like their is a quick path to victory here, the Bunker Dwarf is going to level all of the east, reprecussions be damned.  Even if his forward deploy is entirely slaughtered, he will just keep shelling away.  

[dcar00 14210]

1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

Such a fucking no-brainer.

It was the answer 30 years ago also.  3 issues, Central America doesn't educate their populations like China does, CA governments don't have the money China does to dole out to US politicians, safety for Americans trying to increase manufacturing and educational levels in areas where there isn't a current base could be problematic.

 

Mexico has a decent start but their government and uncontrolled corruption is a big problem.

I get why we did what we did with China but in the end it was a strategic blunder.

 

[InkaUtexas 25951]

6 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

It was the answer 30 years ago also.  3 issues, Central America doesn't educate their populations like China does, CA governments don't have the money China does to dole out to US politicians, safety for Americans trying to increase manufacturing and educational levels in areas where there isn't a current base could be problematic.

 

Mexico has a decent start but their government and uncontrolled corruption is a big problem.

I get why we did what we did with China but in the end it was a strategic blunder.

 

All of that can be changed. That is why I said take the old military bases and start there. They have infrastructure, etc. It can be done. Who wants to help me write the white paper? 

[dcar00 14210]

1 minute ago, InkaUtexas said:

All of that can be changed. That is why I said take the old military bases and start there. They have infrastructure, etc. It can be done. Who wants to help me write the white paper? 

I love the optimism.  Just that small problem of CA countries actually wanting us there.

[InkaUtexas 25951]

2 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

I love the optimism.  Just that small problem of CA countries actually wanting us there.

They prefer us over the Chinese. Just need to stop fucking with their internal decisions. Cold War 1.0 is over. Now it it time to think a bit differently. 

[FartingMonk 3608]

3 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

They prefer us over the Chinese. Just need to stop fucking with their internal decisions. Cold War 1.0 is over. Now it it time to think a bit differently. 

The problem with old military bases and old anything we have there is there is some nasty shit under there.  In the US they would be super fund sites

[KYHorn 17074]

On 3/12/2022 at 4:47 PM, KYHorn said:

Anyone stumble on analysis of this decision?

I found this from Bloomberg on market shutdown.  Thought it was pretty insightful.

Lessons for Russia From Long Stock Market Shutdowns: QuickTake

https://archive.ph/QYt52

Spoiler

 

Lessons for Russia From Long Stock Market Shutdowns: QuickTake

 

Stock trading on the Moscow Exchange has been closed since Feb. 25, one of the longest-ever shutdowns for a market of Russia’s size. The bourse halted equity trading after the benchmark MOEX Index crashed 33% the day Russia invaded Ukraine, the fifth-biggest decline for any stock market. Collapse seems inevitable were the exchange to be reopened now, and Russia has few options to dodge the decline. If history is any guide, keeping trading shut for longer might be a better tactic.

1. When will Russia’s stock market resume trading? 

We don’t know. So far, the central bank has extended the closures on a day-by-day basis, without setting a firm target for reopening. Cut off from the rest of the financial world by sanctions, Russia may prefer to keep the exchange shuttered. The central bank is reportedly mulling ways to restart, but some market watchers say it’s wise to keep it out of action until there’s some kind of resolution to the conflict, or at least sufficient stimulus available to pump up stock prices. Meanwhile, the Bank of Russia has introduced capital controls and banned foreigners from selling securities locally, effectively shutting the exits for investors. 

2. What’s expected when it does? 

In short, a nosedive. Even after the rout that triggered the shutdown, analysts estimate anywhere from 20% to 50% of the gauge’s value could still be erased when trading reopens. The 90%-plus wipeouts seen in Russian shares traded in London, as well as the extreme plunge in Russia-focused exchange-traded funds (ETFs), hint at the scope for further losses. After the rout, Cboe Global Markets and VanEck ETFs were halted on March 4 due to “regulatory concerns,” according to the New York Stock Exchange. The ruble, meanwhile, has collapsed 30% since the invasion on Feb. 24. When local trading of the currency resumed for the first time this week on March 9, it tumbled 13% against the dollar. 

3. Can anything stem the decline? 

 

It’s unclear what it would take, but Russia is dipping into its playbook from crises past. On March 1, the government said it would pump as much as $10 billion from the sovereign wealth fund into buying battered local stocks. But Russia’s situation differs from the global meltdown of 2008. The country is isolated from the international financial system, trade ties are fraying and international companies are fleeing. And the $10 billion is barely a drop in the bucket compared with the $650 billion valuation of the companies on the MOEX Index before the rout began on Feb. 20. Foreign holdings of Russian stocks stood at $86 billion at the end of last year, according to data from the Moscow Exchange. It’s also unclear what access the central bank and Finance Ministry have to their windfall oil savings after international governments put a freeze on the central bank’s holdings abroad. 

4. Has this sort of thing happened before?

 

 

Shutdowns happen, but rarely in an economy the size of Russia’s, the world’s 11th-biggest. Historical examples from World War I to the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001 to the so-called Arab Spring show that mothballing markets only delays the decline. One of the longer war-related closures occurred at the outbreak of World War I in Europe. The New York Stock Exchange shut on July 31, 1914, with officials saying that sales by European investors justified the suspension as a circuit breaker, according to a 2004 paper by William Silber in the Journal of Financial Economics. The closure, which lasted until Dec. 12, was the longest in the history of American markets, he wrote. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by more than 20% when trading resumed.

Here’s how other stock market shutdowns panned out this century: 

• The Athens Stock Exchange shut for five weeks in 2015 when Greece’s membership in the euro was pushed to the brink. When it reopened the main index plunged 16%; banking stocks crashed 30%.
• Egypt’s benchmark stock index slumped 8.9% when trading reopened in March 2011 after a two-month shutdown following the protests that ended President Hosni Mubarak’s 30-year reign.
• U.S. stock trading was halted for four days after the Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attacks. The benchmark S&P 500 sank 5% when trading resumed.

5. What options might Russia have to stem the slide? 

A few tools have been developed to take the sting out of market meltdowns: 

• CIRCUIT BREAKERS: Exchanges in the U.S. and other countries have have so-called circuit breakers in place, which trigger temporary halts when there are extreme moves. They can help ease panic during a selloff, but they can also backfire.
• PRICE FLOORS: Some countries simply set daily limits for how much prices can move. Pakistan imposed price floors in 2008 for three months, preventing securities from trading below a certain level.
• MASSIVE INTERVENTION: Market participants say the simple knowledge that there’s a big buyer can provide a boost when nerves are frayed. China, for example, has a tradition of leaning on a collection of state bodies known as its “national team.”

6. Could Russia be ‘uninvestable’ for a long time? 

A procession of investors and analysts have characterized Russia’s market as “uninvestable” for new capital after the invasion and central bank capital controls. Quite how long foreign investors might be trapped isn’t clear, and sanctions may be in place for the long term. Whether they’ll prove as entrenched as the U.S. penalties on Cuba -- more than six decades, or those on Iran -- 40 years and counting -- is impossible to predict. But even if the war ends tomorrow, there’s little expectation it will be back to business as usual.

The Reference Shelf

• Why shutting down stock markets tends to only delay the declines.
• Related QuickTakes on China’s ‘National Team” and the history of circuit breakers.
• A 2004 research paper by William Silber in the Journal of Financial Economics on what happened to liquidity when World War I shut the New York Stock Exchange.

— With assistance by Nikos Chrysoloras

 

[dcar00 14210]

5 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

They prefer us over the Chinese. Just need to stop fucking with their internal decisions. Cold War 1.0 is over. Now it it time to think a bit differently. 

sure but the problem is their internal "decisions" when it comes to the Chinese.  money talks, bullshit walks, and it can't touch my 3 Lock Box.

[InkaUtexas 25951]

3 minutes ago, FartingMonk said:

The problem with old military bases and old anything we have there is there is some nasty shit under there.  In the US they would be super fund sites

Their bases. We only really had 1 at Soto Cano. They did not have the equipment we did. Don't think Da Nang. 

[Armybrat 40850]

32 minutes ago, FartingMonk said:

Yeah.  I made that post about refugees at the beginning.  It starts that way as good will.  And then resentment builds up.  Then funding goes away and then the clashes.  Maybe two European countries may make it easier since they look similar.  But yeah the longer the refugees are there the worst it will get.  Inevitably something pops off and there is a schism between the host and the guest

 

Like having cousin Eddie overstay his welcome.

[atomheartbevo 89685]

7 hours ago, Pato del Muerto said:

I don’t  know if the west can do to China economically what it has done to Russia. But I’m confident that China really doesn’t want that to happen to them.  I think there’s a level of MAD there between goods and debts.   It there’s bound to be other countries that would be happy to take on a portion of china’s manufacturing capability over time. 

China has a lot to lose long term if the West moves manufacturing elsewhere - they need to develop a massive middle class.  

They have a helluva lot in the short term if the West dropped serious sanctions - yes, it would suck for us, but it could put hundreds of millions of Chinese out of work and in the streets.

[atomheartbevo 89685]

7 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Russia upset about military aid is very telling about how wrong this war is going for them. Initially they were pushing back on any air support of Ukraine because they were going to win this war in 2 weeks.  Small arms assistance from the west wasn’t going to change that outcome.

russia might have to escalate their threats to the West soon as they have few levers to pull. 

Between Russia complaining about military aid, complaining about not accessing $300 billion of their reserves,  and bringing in foreign mercenaries, those things are all looking really bad for them.  Belarus military not fighting for them would be extremely bad.

[Constant 6732]

 

[atomheartbevo 89685]

2 hours ago, Chopper said:

per Phillips P O'Brien, "Another interesting attempt to map the war, clear differentiation between where the Russians control blocks of territory and where they are confined to the roads."

 

Wish the media would use a lot more of these maps - way too many were being lazy early on and assuming that all of those areas between the red lines/roads were also controlled or occupied by Russia.

When you look at where they are attacking, like the places we know 100% that they are putting a lot of effort into, it's clear they will never have the manpower needed to accomplish a lot of what they wanted to do.

That and we are day 17 in a 3-day war.

[JesusSweatDuck 17781]

Coworker is Polish and is hosting a family at his place. I'm trying to find out how I can do something similar.

[immamac 42857]

Just now, JesusSweatDuck said:

Coworker is Polish and is hosting a family at his place. I'm trying to find out how I can do something similar.

You can rent rooms at any hotel and tell them to 0ut as many refugees as policy allows there for however many days. You could rent for a month. 

[Bozo_Casanova 26472]

3 hours ago, RDCanecutter said:

When Luka says he wants his MickyDees, you best believe Luka wants his MickyDees.

Any Mavs fan can attest to this. 

[atomheartbevo 89685]

 

[atomheartbevo 89685]

Ukraine memes are good memes.

 

[atomheartbevo 89685]

 

I've read this letter in Penthouse Letters.  I mean, it wasn't about tanks and tractors, but I've read the letter.

 

Edited March 13, 2022 by atomheartbevo

[atomheartbevo 89685]

 

[atomheartbevo 89685]

@MillerEP and @InkaUtexas you all may appreciate this 

 

[Macanudo 12979]

3 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

Dibs on the band name. That is fucking classic. 

Bunker Dwarf or Mandated Anal Swab?

[Blotto 23525]

Safety First!!!

[staboner 4975]

3 hours ago, Dbeasy said:

If China helps Russia, consider the entire country a lost cause, and begin immediately plotting with the western Allies to slowly shift manufacturing to 20 other countries around the world over the next twenty years. Do it quietly, slowly, methodically and dramatically reduce our reliance on them. We can teach many other low cost countries to manufacture goods for us. In fact we should be doing this anyway. 

 

1 hour ago, InkaUtexas said:

They prefer us over the Chinese. Just need to stop fucking with their internal decisions. Cold War 1.0 is over. Now it it time to think a bit differently. 

 

1 hour ago, dcar00 said:

I love the optimism.  Just that small problem of CA countries actually wanting us there.

 

1 hour ago, dcar00 said:

It was the answer 30 years ago also.  3 issues, Central America doesn't educate their populations like China does, CA governments don't have the money China does to dole out to US politicians, safety for Americans trying to increase manufacturing and educational levels in areas where there isn't a current base could be problematic.

 

Mexico has a decent start but their government and uncontrolled corruption is a big problem.

I get why we did what we did with China but in the end it was a strategic blunder.

 

the big problem in this equation is America by far and the wildly successful economic machine it has managed to create. the fed can't even raise the interest rate .25% without the fake stock market crushing, yet somehow we think we can execute an onshoring of thousands of private entities with their own shit on the line? 

come to the ledge. War with China is inevitable entirely because we are so intertwined with good/debt. We can't unravel slowly, shift policy and expect a billion + Chinese to just not care. 

parallels nice with that camel fucker bear fucker in Moscow. he had one moment to shock and he has done it. and voila we are unraveled economically. is there a singular event that can do that for China and the US? don't want to think about that.

China is sitting there with their dick in their hands and a decision to make (as noted a pages back). They will flip towards uncle sam - further embedding us economically. good now, bad later.

 

[staboner 4975]

1 hour ago, Constant said:

 

does anyone have any insight to how our nato partners are preparing for this? I mean i've seen the top level stuff like raising the budget in Germany -I mean more on  atactical level.  Are we getting soldiers blessed by St Javenlin and dispersed from Poland to Estonia? all over the border to cause immediate caution to putin?

[atomheartbevo 89685]

Just now, staboner said:

does anyone have any insight to how our nato partners are preparing for this? I mean i've seen the top level stuff like raising the budget in Germany -I mean more on  atactical level.  Are we getting soldiers blessed by St Javenlin and dispersed from Poland to Estonia? all over the border to cause immediate caution to putin?

NATO has started deploying the NATO Response Force  to Romania, which is the first time in its history that it's been deployed.  Up to 40,000 highly-mobile, well-equipped, high-tech, highly-trained soldiers from across NATO with associated armor, logistics, ships, aircraft, etc.  That force alone would kick the absolute shit out of any of the Russian divisions currently in Ukraine - it actually knows how to do combined arms fighting and maneuver warfare.

We are pushing Patriot batteries into Poland and elsewhere.  NATO has deployed various units in the Baltics.  

Russia would not be able to get any of its aircraft into NATO airspace.  Well, maybe for a few minutes, but their life expectancy would be that of WWI pilots.

Airpower would deal with any ground forces quickly though.

[cactusflinthead 27598]

It's boring but logistics. The Russians are raiding stores because their rations suck or don't exist. Tires blow out from lack of basic maintenance. It's day 16. They can keep getting bodies in there, but they can't feed them or keep the trucks running. They can sit off somewhere in the distance and lob shells at apartments that ought to be empty. 

Pick them off one at a time. Starve them. Harass them. Time is not on the Russian's side. 

[atomheartbevo 89685]

Good listen right now - RALee, Michael Kofman, and some others

https://twitter.com/i/spaces/1eaKbNRaEanKX?s=20

 

[Sawbonz 27565]

This can’t be real right?

[Superhero 8830]

7 hours ago, Dbeasy said:

Those waiting for China to do the right thing, don’t hold your breath. 

Send Russell Peters there stat.

 

[atomheartbevo 89685]

11 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

This can’t be real right?

I don't think it was for soldiers I think it was for equipment and drones (China makes a fuckload of drones, whether it's DJI stuff or the larger stuff).

Conservative estimates by the Oryx folks who only use photo/video documentation, show over 1,200 Russian vehicles lost.  Will easily be much higher given how many weren't photographed or were knocked out in areas where the Ukrainians weren't able to get good photos and post them on the internet.

Russia probably can't manufacture many replacements, if any.

And Russians are clearly not above putting themselves under China's thumb.

 

[Telegraph_it 3357]

4 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Poland is kicking ass and really rehabing their democratic backslider image.  The Slovaks and Romanians and Czechs are kicking ass too. It’s good to let Europe get this one given that they were so dovish for so long.

And their version of Budweiser is great. I remember it being cheaper then water. At least that is how I justified expensing it. 
 

[atomheartbevo 89685]

I can't imagine what would have happened if we lost 1,200 vehicles in 18 or so days in Iraq in 1991 or 2003.

[cactusflinthead 27598]

That shitty looking field kitchen told me volumes. That's no way to feed anyone. The truck was beat to hell, sacks of taters and onions laying around. You store that stuff properly if there's someone around that gives a damn. It was dirty and a dollar says they don't have the soap, water, or the fuel to make it hot.

[atomheartbevo 89685]

This is a good way to make sure Western investments don't come back in the future.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/russian-prosecutors-warn-western-companies-of-arrests-asset-seizures-11647206193

 

[MillerEP 30469]

^Oh man, I hope they put a bullet in this guy's dome.

 

[MillerEP 30469]

When they write that the column of racists has been destroyed. So you know, it looks like this:

Remains of BMP-3 racists.

[Parliament 14260]

Good Lord.  Did they NUKE it?

[BamaATL 16593]

Ramzan Kadyrov, the world will be a much better place without him.  A walking dirtbag and thug.  Fingers crossed on this one.

[BamaATL 16593]

15 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

Ramzan Kadyrov, the world will be a much better place without him.  A walking dirtbag and thug.  Fingers crossed on this one.

I have to figure he'd be CIA priority target.  

[Goredho 17408]

1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

I don't think it was for soldiers I think it was for equipment and drones (China makes a fuckload of drones, whether it's DJI stuff or the larger stuff).

Conservative estimates by the Oryx folks who only use photo/video documentation, show over 1,200 Russian vehicles lost.  Will easily be much higher given how many weren't photographed or were knocked out in areas where the Ukrainians weren't able to get good photos and post them on the internet.

Russia probably can't manufacture many replacements, if any.

And Russians are clearly not above putting themselves under China's thumb.

 

Russia finding itself in a proxy war with the US but as one of the fucking proxies is almost worth WWIII.

[Sawbonz 27565]

1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

I don't think it was for soldiers I think it was for equipment and drones (China makes a fuckload of drones, whether it's DJI stuff or the larger stuff).

Conservative estimates by the Oryx folks who only use photo/video documentation, show over 1,200 Russian vehicles lost.  Will easily be much higher given how many weren't photographed or were knocked out in areas where the Ukrainians weren't able to get good photos and post them on the internet.

Russia probably can't manufacture many replacements, if any.

And Russians are clearly not above putting themselves under China's thumb.

 

Yeah I figured it was for hardware but that is absolutely pathetic. You can’t fight a war with your neighbor for 16 days without needing to go begging for weapons?

[KYHorn 17074]

Over/under on days left for this guy to live? 

 

[Pescado_Rojo 19416]

So are the Russians planning an amphibious landing in Odessa? Is there a mobile launcher for the Harpoon or similar? Could we get it to them in time? Does it rely too much on our networking capability for the Ukrainians to use it autonomously? Is there a Russian anti-ship missile they could launch from a Mig 29? I feel like this is a prime opportunity to put some Russian shipping on the bottom of the Black Sea.  

Edited March 14, 2022 by Pescado_Rojo

[Pato del Muerto 52506]

Any chance we have an undetectable stealth sub hanging out in the Black Sea ready to sink everything they have and then slip off to the med and beyond?

[MillerEP 30469]

4 minutes ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

So are the Russians planning an amphibious landing in Odessa? Is there a mobile launcher for the Harpoon or similar? Could we get it to them in time? Does it rely too much on our networking capability for the Ukrainians to use it autonomously? Is there a Russian anti-ship missile they could launch from a Mig 29? I feel like this is a prime opportunity to put some Russian shipping on the bottom of the Black Sea.  

I think they canceled the amphibious landing and are now driving up from Crimea. 

[BamaATL 16593]

13 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

I think they canceled the amphibious landing and are now driving up from Crimea. 

I'm betting they think we helped them mine the area.

[MillerEP 30469]

The DRG of the Kadyrovites was destroyed.