Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[atomheartbevo 90,650]

FT said they have a list of Russian wants.  Russians need a no-fly zone worse than the Ukrainians do.

 

[atomheartbevo 90,650]

 

[Pato del Muerto 53,508]

1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

From the listing:

That really limits things.  Maybe some Green Berets with 10th Special Forces (I think they were the ones in Europe).  Maybe some soldiers who served in Bosnia - I think we have/had a camp in Bosnia and Herzegovina for quite a few years, like pushing a decade, so it's possible some folks did multiple tours there.

This is a deal breaker and pretty much limits you to Green Berets and maybe some Rangers (actual 75th) who did some civilian work:

But wait, I can do these, 

SALUTE?  I KNOW WHAT SALUTE IS!  

I don’t think John Rambo has the preferred qualifications. 

[Bateshorn 9,991]

50 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

FT said they have a list of Russian wants.  Russians need a no-fly zone worse than the Ukrainians do.

 

Yiiiiikes. they need drones and trucks? The Russians are truly fucked. they can’t even signal monitor the Ukrainians. 
 

There is zero chance the Chinese give the Russians their best military gear.  There is no way they want us monitoring and recording it’s effectiveness from Poland and Slovakia, so we can capture/counter program. They’ve been doing that to us for years, no way they want us to see their shit. 

Edited March 15, 2022 by Bateshorn

[TaxMaster 6]

42 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

 

It seems they’ve been saying this for almost a week now. I wonder if this keeps getting brought up because the media keeps asking US/UK officials because it’s doom porn-ish, the US/Uk officials keep bring it up because they’re getting continuing intel, or if US/Uk officials keeping bringing it up for deterrence.

[gmr548 16,701]

It seems they’ve been saying this for almost a week now. I wonder if this keeps getting brought up because the media keeps asking US/UK officials because it’s doom porn-ish, the US/Uk officials keep bring it up because they’re getting continuing intel, or if US/Uk officials keeping bringing it up for deterrence.

The US/UK claims of an impending invasion were weeks of doom porn, until they weren’t.

[pops 7,142]

A thought that occurred to me today.... and it's probably been brought up,  but the Ukrainian resistance is really a product of the USSR and putins wet dreams. These guys know what it is like to be part of the user. They know how shitty it is. And while they have had some corrupt ass shit in that country since 91, they also know whatever they have is 100x better than being under Moscow's thumb. 

Therefore,  the choice really isn't that hard. Defend the homeland with everything you have because death really is better than the alternative. 

Probably just my simple mind but just kind of hit me in the last day or two of seeing cities look like they went through the blitz and these fuckers aren't even flinching. 

[Scheiss Meister 8,471]

10 minutes ago, TaxMaster said:

It seems they’ve been saying this for almost a week now. I wonder if this keeps getting brought up because the media keeps asking US/UK officials because it’s doom porn-ish, the US/Uk officials keep bring it up because they’re getting continuing intel, or if US/Uk officials keeping bringing it up for deterrence.

I think that the biolab angle has found some traction in a portion of the world population, and Russia plans to press that hard.

[BamaATL 16,593]

1 minute ago, Scheiss Meister said:

I think that the biolab angle has found some traction in a portion of the world population, and Russia plans to press that hard.

Leave it to our fucking loonies to give them something to latch onto.  

[TaxMaster 6]

Anyone know what Germany/the EU’s gas reserve situation is like? I gotta think Russia completely turning off the taps to Europe without warning would have a very slightly better risk/reward than using nuclear or bio weapons. Im not an O&G guy, but if Russia suddenly stopped western energy exports until, say, financial sanctions were lifted…is there global production capacity to even meet Germany’s industrial needs? 

[BamaATL 16,593]

1 minute ago, TaxMaster said:

Anyone know what Germany/the EU’s gas reserve situation is like? I gotta think Russia completely turning off the taps to Europe without warning would have a very slightly better risk/reward than using nuclear or bio weapons. Im not an O&G guy, but if Russia suddenly stopped western energy exports until, say, financial sanctions were lifted…is there global production capacity to even meet Germany’s industrial needs? 

Well, if that is their plan they picked a shitty time to do this, it's almost spring time.  That wouldn't really hurt until winter next year, in my eyes.  Giving Europe ample time to find alternatives.  Come to think of it, seems Putin picked on of the worst times to do this anyway, given the ground conditions in Ukraine now (wouldn't have much mattered the Olympics and all, it was still strategically a shitty time frame.  Why he didn't do this late summer is baffling to me.

[TaxMaster 6]

15 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

The US/UK claims of an impending invasion were weeks of doom porn, until they weren’t.

True, but we saw Russia building up invasion forces for months. And I get that the warning about other things have been true as well, I guess I was just curious if this particularly kept getting brought up because they keep receiving intel about it or if this is just reporting based off the same intelligence. Because a continued stream of intelligence suggests a much stronger possibility of it happening (which if it does happen, then it would seem Russia is using the same playbook they gave Assad).

[dimyh 1,890]

4 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

Well, if that is their plan they picked a shitty time to do this, it's almost spring time.  That wouldn't really hurt until winter next year, in my eyes.  Giving Europe ample time to find alternatives.  Come to think of it, seems Putin picked on of the worst times to do this anyway, given the ground conditions in Ukraine now (wouldn't have much mattered the Olympics and all, it was still strategically a shitty time frame.  Why he didn't do this late summer is baffling to me.

Yeah I was wondering about the timing of it all once it became a full fledged invasion. Seems like waiting 4-5 months would have been more ideal. For a guy that is so passionate about history, Putin sure is a dumbass about some major Russian events.

[BamaATL 16,593]

Just now, dimyh said:

Yeah I was wondering about the timing of it all once it became a full fledged invasion. Seems like waiting 4-5 months would have been more ideal. For a guy that is so passionate about history, Putin sure is a dumbass about some major Russian events.

I mean its weird he wouldn't of thought of cutting off energy to hedge against sanctions, right?  The best time to do that would be to leverage just before coming into winter.  

[pops 7,142]

13 minutes ago, TaxMaster said:

Anyone know what Germany/the EU’s gas reserve situation is like? I gotta think Russia completely turning off the taps to Europe without warning would have a very slightly better risk/reward than using nuclear or bio weapons. Im not an O&G guy, but if Russia suddenly stopped western energy exports until, say, financial sanctions were lifted…is there global production capacity to even meet Germany’s industrial needs? 

From what I've read it's not an issue with supply,  but Germany simply doesn't have the infrastructure to offload the gas. They went all in on nord 1 and nord 2 and even if they started building the infrastructure today to get gas from the west,  it would be years before it was operational  

[TaxMaster 6]

4 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

Well, if that is their plan they picked a shitty time to do this, it's almost spring time.  That wouldn't really hurt until winter next year, in my eyes.  Giving Europe ample time to find alternatives.  Come to think of it, seems Putin picked on of the worst times to do this anyway, given the ground conditions in Ukraine now (wouldn't have much mattered the Olympics and all, it was still strategically a shitty time frame.  Why he didn't do this late summer is baffling to me.

Maybe? Half of German energy comes from Russia and I don’t think their energy needs are seasonal enough for it to not deal a major blow regardless of the time of year.

[BamaATL 16,593]

Just now, TaxMaster said:

Maybe? Half of German energy comes from Russia and I don’t think their energy needs are seasonal enough for it to not deal a major blow regardless of the time of year.

My point is, he's essentially given the largest amount of time possible for Germany to come up with another solution for next winter.  That's extraordinarily shitty timing on Russia's part.  Putin ain't exactly Carl Sagan.  

[dimyh 1,890]

2 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

I mean its weird he wouldn't of thought of cutting off energy to hedge against sanctions, right?  The best time to do that would be to leverage just before coming into winter.  

Exactly. And I believe NS2 was slated to start up midyear, so Putin could have gotten them used to drinking straight from the tap for a few months before making the big threats.

[Constant 6,886]

 

[immamac 44,356]

imagine not having enough military firepower to fight a month of 40% of your deployed force at war for less than 30 days. 

Russia is beyond fucked, no one will care even if they withdraw now and they will be forced to denuclearize to join the international community again. 

The great part about russia denuclearizing is I think it's actually a path forward for everyone to denuclearize - the main reason we kept them is because of them, not because of China -China doesn't want nukes, they just have to have them because we have them. I'm not sure if we want nukes or not, but if Russia didn't have them I think there could be some serious lobbying done to get rid of them forever.

 

[pops 7,142]

5 minutes ago, Constant said:

 

Unreal how the entire world overestimated their military by about a factor of 10. 

[immamac 44,356]

1 minute ago, pops said:

Unreal how the entire world overestimated their military by about a factor of 10. 

more than by a factor of 10 - I believed Russia could fight nearly indefinitely in conventional warfare before this. 

[BamaATL 16,593]

Just now, immamac said:

imagine not having enough military firepower to fight a month of 40% of your deployed force at war for less than 30 days. 

Russia is beyond fucked, no one will care even if they withdraw now and they will be forced to denuclearize to join the international community again. 

The great part about russia denuclearizing is I think it's actually a path forward for everyone to denuclearize - the main reason we kept them is because of them, not because of China -China doesn't want nukes, they just have to have them because we have them. I'm not sure if we want nukes or not, but if Russia didn't have them I think there could be some serious lobbying done to get rid of them forever.

 

This is 100% right and the best news.  Eventually, Russia will want to get back into normal financial relations, and in order to do so, they are going to have to trade something.  The only thing they have to trade at this point are the nukes.

Putin stole from his military, made it not really able to fight, seems to have forgotten that he did that, invades a country and is humiliated by farmers and western weapons, destroys his economy in a manner of weeks.  Leaving no economic path back without having to trade nukes.  

The guy is a fucking genius.  

[Constant 6,886]

6 minutes ago, pops said:

Unreal how the entire world overestimated their military by about a factor of 10. 

100%. It’s shocking. 

[Pato del Muerto 53,508]

2 minutes ago, Constant said:

100%. It’s shocking. 

Russians lie about everything. Correctly estimating by what factor they are lying about any one thing is tricky business.  And you don’t want to be wrong in the bad direction about their ability to wage war. 

[SimonBolivar 11,064]

25 minutes ago, Constant said:

 

Yeah we'll see. I don't see that happening. 

[Schulz2.0 29,280]

 

 

[shakahorn 1,658]

Unreal how the entire world overestimated their military by about a factor of 10. 

Including the Russians.

[MillerEP 30,907]

From what I keep hearing China is expected to step in and save Russia, so I imagine Russia can last longer than that.

edit: If that is the case, then it'll become a matter of seeing who can resupply first, and since the West drew an imaginary line over who is expendable to die or not (NATO or not), then China can probably easily win that one, while we sit on our thumbs trying to make the guy bombing cities mad.

Edited March 15, 2022 by MillerEP

[immamac 44,356]

Just now, MillerEP said:

From what I keep hearing China is expected to step in and save Russia, so I imagine Russia can last longer than that.

you heard wrong.

[pops 7,142]

1 minute ago, MillerEP said:

From what I keep hearing China is expected to step in and save Russia, so I imagine Russia can last longer than that.

I just don't see how China throws a rope to this sinking ship. It wouldn't be in a day or a week or a year,  but if they go in with Russia companies across the world find somewhere else to manufacture their shit. China has waited forever to be relevant. They aren't going to throw it away on fucking Russia. 

[MillerEP 30,907]

5 minutes ago, immamac said:

you heard wrong.

Did I? Then why did the State Department just send a wire to our allies in Europe and Asia stating China's openness at doing it.

[pops 7,142]

Just now, MillerEP said:

Did I? Then why did the State Department just send a wire to our allies in Europe and Asia stating China's openness at doing it.

Message to China to fafo?

[Bateshorn 9,991]

Just because the Chinese have agreed to send supplies to the Russians doesn’t mean the Russians will be able to competently get it to the front and use it. 

[FartingMonk 3,619]

The China thing is laughable.  The entire time this shit has been happening.  We have kept trying to blame China.  China has nothing to do with it.  They want no part of it.  They are sitting there observing and laughing.  Why the fuck would they even try to jump in.  It's stupid and you guys are stupid for trying to get this China angle.

[Auto Driller 2,566]

China sees an opportunity to exploit Russia for its natural resources for the next 50 years. They don’t maximize that opportunity by bailing Russia out. They’re going to let them lose the war. Next time Russia comes asking for help, they’re REALLY going to need it.

[Goredho 17,656]

39 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

This is 100% right and the best news.  Eventually, Russia will want to get back into normal financial relations, and in order to do so, they are going to have to trade something.  The only thing they have to trade at this point are the nukes.

Putin stole from his military, made it not really able to fight, seems to have forgotten that he did that, invades a country and is humiliated by farmers and western weapons, destroys his economy in a manner of weeks.  Leaving no economic path back without having to trade nukes.  

The guy is a fucking genius.  

Putin's head is worth something.

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3,873]

13 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

Did I? Then why did the State Department just send a wire to our allies in Europe and Asia stating China's openness at doing it.

To give RU hope via propaganda?

China wants nothing more than to be one of two super powers and not the third wheel super power.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,732]

I could see China as non-committal in both helping and not helping Russia.  Don’t say no but don’t say yes.

[victory88 5,765]

Jeez, CNN was showing footage of the pregnant woman in the process of dying as men are escorting her to the ambulance.  Watching her grab her belly really fucked me up.  My wife is pregnant with my first kid so watching that really ate me up.  
 

Fuck Putin.  This has to stop.  Watching to those civilians packed like sardines under a bridge in fear of being shelled was sobering as well.  

[Bobby_Batronic 1,994]

Yeah, Russia isn’t giving up their nukes. Their conventional military is spent. They have nothing left to keep everyone i their respective lanes, and a s**t tone of land and resources to protect from anyone who might want them. They might trade in 1/2 the arsenal or something and still have a couple of two thousand warheads left, but they’re not drawing down to zero. Tradiational Russian paranoi probably has them looking at China’s arsenal and saying we need at least 5x that, and we’re not doing it unless the US draws down to that amount too. A significant win, but still enough end mankind several times over.

[Bateshorn 9,991]

This is classic Belt and Road stuff: yeah man, we will totally build out your infrastructure.  We also need a companion sea/land/air base to ensure the security of our engineers on the ground. 

Always funny how the base gets completed on time and on schedule, but the belt and road projects never really get completed, but the Chinese expect payment, on time.

[Nicole44 22,315]

Also, I need a tractor Ukraine tshirt but the tractor has to have like a logo that says “apex predator” on it

[gsoda3 3,362]

They've had COVID lockdowns off and on throughout.  The original lockdown in 2020, with alleged welding shut of doors, was stricter than this.  And yet their market still didn't take this kind of beating.
It's almost certain that it's a combination.
 

No, all Chinese tech stocks sold off huge last week due to DIDI's IPO in HK being cancelled. Today was continuation across all Chinese ADR stocks.

[J.R. 150]

37 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I could see China as non-committal in both helping and not helping Russia.  Don’t say no but don’t say yes.

Agree that they are going to play the middle. Do not underestimate their desire for fellow travelers on the road away from democracy and western ideals. They certainly will not overtly fuck over Russia. It’ll be a 100+ year plan. 

[BamaATL 16,593]

6 minutes ago, J.R. said:

Agree that they are going to play the middle. Do not underestimate their desire for fellow travelers on the road away from democracy and western ideals. They certainly will not overtly fuck over Russia. It’ll be a 100+ year plan. 

I'm not sure they have to be that patient in this situation.  Russia was a fading power well before this nonsense, they've only rapidly made this all but a certainty at this point; moving from being a fading power to potentially being completely irrelevant on an international stage (economically they are irrelevant, hence why the world can easily afford to outright shut them out like we have).  The only hold up is the nuclear arsenal, and China can certainly play out a scenario that brings them to the certain 2nd power status out of all of this (which by the way, they are undeniably this right now given their economic power).  China may play a bit of lip service to Russia, but only for ideological reasons.  They don't need some grand long plan.  They might tacitly show Russia some level of basic support, but they have no need nor any economic reason to truly lend support. 

China has a good deal right now just by being frienemies with the West.  They can send some basics like food for troops and what not, watch the Russians implode, maintain trade status with the West, and in just a brief time swoop in get mineral rights in Siberia and cheap energy as this all shakes out.  

As has been eloquently summarized here by others, the Russians have only the following to trade, in order to be brought back into the financial world:

1.  Putin's head on pike

2.  Nukes

3.  Mineral Rights

4.  Energy (that the west has already locked out and China is currently using)

5.. Allowance of UN peacekeeping in country with free and fair elections.  

My bet is that China makes a play on the mineral rights and energy and basically leaves the rest to the West.  Kind of a here, you deal with the political mess, we will take the resources.  

[Brisketexan 106,901]

Yeah I was wondering about the timing of it all once it became a full fledged invasion. Seems like waiting 4-5 months would have been more ideal. For a guy that is so passionate about history, Putin sure is a dumbass about some major Russian events.

Every “miscalculation” comes down to one foundational mistake: Putin thought they would waltz in, face minimal resistance, and have Ukrainian leadership fleeing the country in 3-4 days.
Everything else comes back to that. If that is true, you don’t worry about mud. You don’t worry about fuel or food or ammo. None of it. They failed to prepare for a war because they didn’t expect to be fighting one.

[atomheartbevo 90,650]

4 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

RALee has been posting a lot of these public memorial services for Russian soldiers.  Makes me wonder if it's sinking in with the Russian public, because we know several thousand have been killed already.  Edit: Have also yet to see a Spetsnaz that was physically impressive.

 

Don't know why I glossed over it, but dude was GRU.  I've seen some people say all Spetsnaz are under GRU, and others have said they are not.  GRU is their foreign intelligence division, and I know they have Spetsnaz groups under them, just not sure if it's all of them.  

[atomheartbevo 90,650]

8 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

China has a good deal right now just by being frienemies with the West.  They can send some basics like food for troops and what not, watch the Russians implode, maintain trade status with the West, and in just a brief time swoop in get mineral rights in Siberia and cheap energy as this all shakes out.  

China could say "sure, we can provide rations, just bring your trucks to this border crossing where there are no railways around for many miles and pick them up."

This is about as easy as it will get for China to knock Russia out of the superpower running, so I think they'd totally take the chance.  If Putin is removed, whoever replaces him will be looking at cutting all kinds of deals to get Russian businesses back up and running and goods and resources flowing out, and China can bend him over a barrel.

[Longhornlove 5,211]

4 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Every “miscalculation” comes down to one foundational mistake: Putin thought they would waltz in, face minimal resistance, and have Ukrainian leadership fleeing the country in 3-4 days.
Everything else comes back to that. If that is true, you don’t worry about mud. You don’t worry about fuel or food or ammo. None of it. They failed to prepare for a war because they didn’t expect to be fighting one.

Piss poor military planning and preparedness without any contingency. That folks is why you don/can't rule by fear and intimidation and surround yourself with yes men. History repeats itself.