Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[dimyh 1890]

I still hold out a sliver of hope that this can still turn into a massive win. Maybe it’s the Ghost of Vince Young topping off my burnt orange Koolaid year after year but there is chance to make this a program defining change. It is a bit silly comparing this Ukrainian struggle to some vague sports reference because the stakes are very real. This is not some gridiron glory. People are dying and there are many more to come which just breaks my heart. But there is one thing very relevant to this whole discussion:

Putin has made a tremendous blunder. Which also means there is a tremendous opportunity in front of us.

It has become very clear after 3 weeks:

1. Russian military is decimated. Not just in equipment and manpower but in overall reputation. No one is fearing their sitzkrieg invasion prowess. They can barely waddle down the end of their driveway, put down a lawn chair, and then lob explosive lawn darts at their next-door neighbor. Plus they didn’t even plan to bring enough beer and brats to last longer than a weekend cookout! Even if they escape this war without further major losses, they will be spending years trying to reform their army and replenishing lost equipment.
2. Russian economy is decimated. Whatever territorial and mineral rights gains it may win from Ukraine is not going to offset the current economic damage. Even if the sanctions soften over time, the decoupling from Western markets is going to be too huge of a hole to recover from. The old Soviet Union was in a better economic situation and still could not afford to match Western defense spending. The new Putin empire is far from that capability and in the best situation is going to have a historical redux moment.
3. NATO unification. Clearly the unprovoked attacks have galvanized the EU like nothing else in recent memory. For such a skillful propagandist, Putin doesn’t seem to understand that building “us vs them” narratives just strengthens both sides. While it may be important to build for his domestic support, the fact that his aggression is only going to strengthen the resolve of his number one enemy.
4. Worldwide condemnation. While not as strong as the EU response, nonetheless the fact that a record majority of nations disapproved of his invasion is a strong indicator of what a pariah Putin’s state has become.
5. Ukrainian identity. The entire world underestimated the will of the Ukrainian people. While a national identity has always been building this invasion simply accelerates that growth. Not only for the fine Ukrainian citizens but this is clear to the rest of the world that this is clearly a sovereign nation.
6. Ukrainian bloodlines. Finally, maybe the greatest blunder of all is the targeting of Slavic brothers and sisters in this attack. While the Putin propaganda machine is spinning the demilitarization and denazification angles to his home audience. The longer this rolls along the more real news is going to trickle back. Once the Russian citizens start learning about the level of atrocities then that is what ties into the greatest opportunity for a successful resolution.

 

I’m not delusional in that we will ever get Russia to give up nukes or reverse course and become a joyful member in NATO. The opportunity to recalibrate that perception of a Russian strong man needed in their leadership. If (and that’s the big IF) Putin can be ousted and made the scapegoat then there is a good chance that it may become the wakeup call needed. While not as dramatic as the Germans firsthand experience of cleaning up the concentration camps, once average Russian citizens start learning of the flagrant destruction in civilian areas then that may drive that level of outcry needed to change that overall mentality. Who knew that the goosestepping Germans of the 1940’s would turn into the shame-ridden pacifists of today? While I don’t believe that wild of a swing is possible but the fact that public perception can be pushed back to a healthier level is definitely feasible. The under 30 set is not tied into that old Soviet empire mentality. Getting another decade or two, another generation away from that expectation can eventually drive home that the West is not their enemy. Its like the reunion scene between John Cusack and Beamer Bob in Gross Pointe Blank, “Do you really believe that there is some stored up conflict between us that exists?” Long term goal should always be to convince the general Russian populace that the West is not an adversary but a partner.

 

Of course the challenge is getting Putin to “step down”. Which is why if this continues to escalate then the potential play is to engage in the next in command. Find someone from their nuclear chain of command that can be more rational and eager to see that their future no longer aligns with Putin. Putin has to be made the scapegoat. Putin has to be portrayed as the madman. That would be part of the post-war narrative which could absolve some of the next in command. Give them that out along with some assurances that we will work with them to build that narrative that this was an unhinged wargoal. Point that propaganda machinegun on Putin and denounce his actions. Give that general Russian populace the same shock that we have been seeing for weeks now.

 

This is definitely the riskier stance, possibly only coming into play once nuclear escalation threats are ratcheted up, and not something we seek to initiate but may be necessary depending on the circumstances. It may take that level of escalation to gain a commitment on the Russian side to initiate a coup. No one wants to see their country devasted and time turned back 1000 years just because their boss is an asshole. So it needs to be made clear that regime change equals dropping certain level of sanctions. Ceasefire and withdrawal of troops equals further elimination of sanctions (reinstatement of SWIFT, etc). Opening up Russian media to allow some Western sources to provide a wider viewpoint equals further return of funds and assets. That public backlash should help propel some fundamental changes such as freedom of speech, freedom of assembly, freedom of media, etc which should help illustrate the inherent problems with dictatorships. Pushing for reforms such as hard term limits, limiting executive powers, etc help diminish that autocratic drive would be major win and a not so subtle jab at China.

Sure it is all a very wishful scenario but it is not completely implausible. The safe play to avoid escalations should also be eventually successful but it does not have that potential payoff with the current scenario. Because right now has to be one of the weakest moments for Russia. Military in disarray. Leadership disorganized. Economic uncertainty. Worldwide condemnation. It may be quite a while for an idiot to make a mistake this overwhelming to line up all of these negative factors at one time on the world stage.

So if this continues to escalate it may become more of a question, “if not now, then when”?

 

tldr - Scapegoat Putin, give new regime the path out and for Russian outcry vs autocracy. ??? -> profit

[RDCanecutter 26903]

10 minutes ago, BachelorTrek said:

So if we discount all the cold war air force & navy brush-ups, and all the times that the soviets both flew planes into the warzones from the USSR and American pilots faced them in both the Korean War and the Vietnam War, this famous standoff occurring during the Berlin Crisis in October 1961 (just after the Berlin Wall went up) was the last time USA and ruskies (then soviets) faced each other in direct intimidation.

I never even knew this standoff happened until I came across pictures of it-- it wasn't in any of my history books, even the ones that mentioned the Berlin Airlift.

10 M-48 Patton tanks and 10 T-55 soviet tanks faced each other at Checkpoint Charlie, 300 feet from each other.

 

USA tanks in the foreground, soviet tanks in the background.

 

soviet T-55 tanks

 

USA M-48 Patton tanks

 

Article and some more photos:
https://rarehistoricalphotos.com/standoff-checkpoint-charlie-1961/

 

Last photo with 3 VW Bugs on the same block: what part of Mexico City is this?

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3873]

1 hour ago, Mother mopar said:

 

God forbid we cross the line and give them migs...helicopters are ok but we draw the line at fixed wing aircraft.
 

 

M-17s are transport helos

[BachelorTrek 3322]

1 minute ago, RDCanecutter said:

Last photo with 3 VW Bugs on the same block: what part of Mexico City is this?

WELL, the USA has seized Mexico City before in 1847, thanks to the Mexican War and General Winfield Scott, but tanks and cars didn't exist yet.  Lulz.

[Bobby_Batronic 1994]

30 minutes ago, utee94 said:

Russia's new version of Big Mac is more like this:

 

Este carne es de rata. 

[686 3461]

Okay.....side note.  That guy is filming from what is clearly a passenger car.  The tarmac is littered with debris from shit that done got blowed up.  That includes chunks and shards of metal.  Dude is just BEGGING to get a flat tire.  I wouldn't ride around on that in anything that's not tracked.

Hopefully a tractor tire shop foam filled the tires for him, but I don’t know if they have anything like mesquite thorns over there.

[Brisketexan 106955]

1 minute ago, 686 said:

Hopefully a tractor tire shop foam filled the tires for him, but I don’t know if they have anything like mesquite thorns over there.

I'm thinking that the shards of the bones of shattered bodies of Russian invaders are going to present a problem for years to come.

[BachelorTrek 3322]

3 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

I'm thinking that the shards of the bones of shattered bodies of Russian invaders are going to present a problem for years to come.

Heh, it's likewise going to make the canine population very happy for years to come!

[Bama Chick 28596]

This just in: Nick Saban is the new head coach of Russia

That’s how you get a Europe dominated by Russia.

They need to hire Tomac Hermanski.

[Bama Chick 28596]

I'd pay 9.95 for some old shows right now if I knew where they were

There’s some clips on YouTube.

[Shaddie 1684]

7 minutes ago, Bama Chick said:

That’s how you get a Europe dominated by Russia.

They need to hire Tomac Hermanski.

Negged,

 

 

 

while I crawl into fetal position and cry. 

[mchookem 16777]

1 hour ago, CHIEF said:

It's even scarier than we think. This is from 2017, and has warning at the end stating all of the technology already exists. FIVE YEARS ago. 

CHIEF

1 hour ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

Putin's speech from earlier, with subtitles.  

I figure this is his declaration of war on the oligarchs who are living elsewhere, and he's taking their possessions within Russian for either himself...or to give to some new bootlickers.

 

 

 

you know, even before all this...it must really suck to be Russian. not a lot of joy in life. 

[Guest Lobo]

I dunno, even if it was all a espionage ruse, getting to play with Elizabeth’s buttocks on the reg would be bring me great joy.  

Edited March 16, 2022 by Lobo

[InkaUtexas 26920]

1 hour ago, RDCanecutter said:

Combine that with all those weird videos of one or two Russian tanks wandering around unsupported, like something from a video game.

Today it occurred to me that maybe Russian tankers train by using only World of Tanks or some such.

I thought the same thing until I read a report about food supplies. That team was looking for some chickens. Never seen a tank just cruise off on its own. Too bad they had to blow it up. I am sure a tractor driver already called dibs. 

[Post Oak 20570]

This is a pretty good look into Putin from the fall of the Berlin Wall to Ukraine.

 

[tx 3 putt 78721]

4 hours ago, BamaATL said:

Switchblade Drone

 

 

$70,000 a unit. every us soldier can carry 3 or 4. launch 5 miles out and take out enemy troops / positions well before engaging them. the price will come down and cheaper options will be available 

 

you have 100 troops, 200 mini drones. they take out 175 enemies before a shot is fired, the rest run home 

[Francisco 2.0 32605]

1 hour ago, RDCanecutter said:

Combine that with all those weird videos of one or two Russian tanks wandering around unsupported, like something from a video game.

Today it occurred to me that maybe Russian tankers train by using only World of Tanks or some such.

 

 

 

In all fairness, at one time, the Army commissioned Atari to modify Battlezone for tank training.  Presenting Bradley Trainer:

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Longhornlove 5213]

This is disturbing.

https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/world-news/russia-threaten-america-nuclear-strike-26471984

[elfenix 34754]

timeline of sanctions imposed on russia just so we can all keep track:

 

https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economic-issues-watch/russias-war-ukraine-sanctions-timeline

[BachelorTrek 3322]

6 minutes ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

 

 

 

In all fairness, at one time, the Army commissioned Atari to modify Battlezone for tank training.  Presenting Bradley Trainer:

 

 

 

 

 

 

Battlezone was damn fun!

[956 Worldwide 35598]

6 minutes ago, Longhornlove said:

This is disturbing.

https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/world-news/russia-threaten-america-nuclear-strike-26471984

A Russia that is militarily weak can be more dangerous than one that is strong.  Putin has to have correctly judged that he cannot hope to win a conventional military conflict with the West and he may not be able to win one against Ukraine. That means that he will have to decide that a conflict is worth losing or he will have to escalate to the nuclear realm.  We are at a higher level of risk of nuclear use in anger (on purpose) than at any point since the Cuban Missile Crisis. It’s not a fun time. 
 

And we do need to acknowledge the perverse reality than democratic leaders will indeed have significant pressure not to respond in a way that provoked Armageddon if Putin chose to use a “limited” nuclear strike to send a message about how far he’s willing to go.

[Constant 6888]

Been out of the loop today, so this was probably already posted. Hope all those pilots had sunflower seeds in their pockets. 

[jettrink 40]

3 hours ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

Putin's speech from earlier, with subtitles.  

I figure this is his declaration of war on the oligarchs who are living elsewhere, and he's taking their possessions within Russian for either himself...or to give to some new bootlickers.

 

 

 

Sounds like Hitler to me.

[jettrink 40]

I'm afraid in for shit folks.  

all dictators sound alike

[BachelorTrek 3322]

Wakey-Wakey!

--Eggs -n- Bakey!

 

[Mother mopar 3387]

M-17s are transport helos

The point still stands though. Remember when the MQ-9 was just an ISR platform until war changed that and we outfitted it with hellfire missiles.

[tx 3 putt 78721]

1 minute ago, Mother mopar said:

2 hours ago, ShaggyBevo RIP said:

M-17s are transport helos

The point still stands though. Remember when the MQ-9 was just an ISR platform until war changed that and we outfitted it with hellfire missiles.

[MillerEP 30907]

Heading "was - became" from the Operational Command "North". Ammunition depot and more than 10 orc fuel tanks in Chernihiv region

30 separate mechanized brigade named after Prince Constantine of Ostroh hunts for racist tanks. And keep it up!

 

[bolverk 30351]

41 minutes ago, elfenix said:

timeline of sanctions imposed on russia just so we can all keep track:

 

https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economic-issues-watch/russias-war-ukraine-sanctions-timeline

Thanks for this. Do you know of one for sanctions that goes all the way back to 2014?

I've also been looking for a similar timeline concerning aid to Ukraine going back to Euromaidan and the invasion of Crimea.

[Constant 6888]

 

Passed this on I-20 at a Nissan dealership. Love seeing things like this.  

[statsman 5693]

39 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

A Russia that is militarily weak can be more dangerous than one that is strong.  Putin has to have correctly judged that he cannot hope to win a conventional military conflict with the West and he may not be able to win one against Ukraine. That means that he will have to decide that a conflict is worth losing or he will have to escalate to the nuclear realm.  We are at a higher level of risk of nuclear use in anger (on purpose) than at any point since the Cuban Missile Crisis. It’s not a fun time. 
 

And we do need to acknowledge the perverse reality than democratic leaders will indeed have significant pressure not to respond in a way that provoked Armageddon if Putin chose to use a “limited” nuclear strike to send a message about how far he’s willing to go.

Right. I think that if Russia uses a tactical nuke in Ukraine, we don’t (can’t) respond in kind. But we can’t give an inch on article 5. We have to let him know that if any nukes come into NATO territory, MAD is on, motherfucker. 
 
That's also why I think our time beforehand is best spent letting Russian officers know that we consider use of nukes, chemical weapons and bio weapons to be war crimes and we will never give up on prosecuting them. 

[Grade of D as in David 13255]

47 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

A Russia that is militarily weak can be more dangerous than one that is strong.  Putin has to have correctly judged that he cannot hope to win a conventional military conflict with the West and he may not be able to win one against Ukraine. That means that he will have to decide that a conflict is worth losing or he will have to escalate to the nuclear realm.  We are at a higher level of risk of nuclear use in anger (on purpose) than at any point since the Cuban Missile Crisis. It’s not a fun time. 
 

And we do need to acknowledge the perverse reality than democratic leaders will indeed have significant pressure not to respond in a way that provoked Armageddon if Putin chose to use a “limited” nuclear strike to send a message about how far he’s willing to go.

Switch it up. Let's escalate to deescalate. Glass his Black Sea palace.

We can't forever live under this Sword of Damocles.

 

[DigglerontheHoof 21557]

28 minutes ago, Grade of D as in David said:

Switch it up. Let's escalate to deescalate. Glass his Black Sea palace.

We can't forever live under this Sword of Damocles.

 

I mean we are the only nation that has used them in "anger"....twice.   Don't fuck w/ us when we're really tired of your shit. 

[Francisco 2.0 32605]

15 minutes ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

I mean we are the only nation that has used them in "anger"....twice.   Don't fuck w/ us when we're really tired of your shit. 

 

It's relatively easy to use the ultimate physical weapon man has created when your adversary doesn't have it for himself.

 

 

[DigglerontheHoof 21557]

1 minute ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

 

It's relatively easy to use the ultimate physical weapon man has created when your adversary doesn't have it for himself.

 

 

[bolverk 30351]

2 hours ago, Post Oak said:

This is a pretty good look into Putin from the fall of the Berlin Wall to Ukraine.

 

Very well done and even handed. Thanks for posting.

[Trey3216 15452]

12 hours ago, dimyh said:

Really hope that clears the way for Putin to be swinging from the gallows pole. You know, to keep it legal and such. Otherwise it could be awhile before he is close enough to a balcony to lose his "balance".

Hangman, hangman, hold it a little while. I think I see Zelensky comin.  Ridin many a mile.   

[HOOKEM4 5177]

That video of the transport vehicle kill is hilarious. Either Russians are stalked with several dji drones and easily wiped or that is straight propaganda. Either way...lulz.

[elfenix 34754]

1 hour ago, bolverk said:

Thanks for this. Do you know of one for sanctions that goes all the way back to 2014?

I've also been looking for a similar timeline concerning aid to Ukraine going back to Euromaidan and the invasion of Crimea.

haven't looked, this one was mentioned on a podcast recently

[pops 7142]

1 hour ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

I mean we are the only nation that has used them in "anger"....twice.   Don't fuck w/ us when we're really tired of your shit. 

No cr, but we saved a lot of lives using the worst thing man has ever created. I guess that's the definition of escalate to deescalate but many more would have died had we not used them. Wish they could be uninvented.

Now I sound like Nicholas Cage from the rock. 

[Superhero 9028]

11 hours ago, Cheeseweasel said:

They misspelled "asswhoppin"

 

[Deej 77854]

"Over 100 Million NowThis Burgers Sold"

 

[F250 29203]

5 hours ago, BabaYaga said:

Nature abhors a vacuum.  Just fucking call it "McDowell's" and have a sense of humor about it already.

 

The Russian version of McDonalds grand opening after sanctions and famine have set in.

[cmontexas 3376]

There was a Jack n the Box in Oak Cliff I think that lost their franchise rights but the owner kept the sysco plug and they just kept on operating as a bootleg Jack n the Box cuz wtf is Jack gonna do bring his bigass head down to the hood and shut them down (he eventually did)

[RDCanecutter 26903]

I saw a bootleg McDonalds in Matamoros in the 90s. Wasn't even a franchise that had lapsed, I'm talkin a hole-in-the-wall burger joint with a 50 dollar hand-painted sign. I'm guessing they paid their cartel bidness tax every month and McDonalds corporate pretended they didn't know.

[rpspeed 1495]

seems to be a lot of random ships being targeted.

 

PANAMA CITY (Reuters) -Three Panamanian-flagged ships have been hit by Russian missiles in the Black Sea since Russia's invasion of Ukraine last month, Panama's Maritime Authority said on Wednesday.

One ship sank, the maritime authority said in a statement, but there were no casualties reported. The two others remain afloat with damages.

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-03-16/panama-says-three-ships-hit-in-black-sea-since-start-of-ukraine-war

[BamaATL 16593]

Just now, rpspeed said:

seems to be a lot of random ships being targeted.

 

PANAMA CITY (Reuters) -Three Panamanian-flagged ships have been hit by Russian missiles in the Black Sea since Russia's invasion of Ukraine last month, Panama's Maritime Authority said on Wednesday.

One ship sank, the maritime authority said in a statement, but there were no casualties reported. The two others remain afloat with damages.

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-03-16/panama-says-three-ships-hit-in-black-sea-since-start-of-ukraine-war

Lulz - they can't sink merchant ships, fucking idiots.

[Guest Lobo]

I think there was a Van Halen song about this.  

[Kennythetiger 9642]

Hot for Teacher?

[tx 3 putt 78721]

If you're crazy putin, what's your nuke target and why ?