Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[Thatguy 8505]

7 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

"After launch, the missile accelerates to more than Mach 4, making it the fastest short-range surface-to-air missile in existence.It then launches three laser beam-riding submunitions, increasing the likelihood of a successful hit on the target. "  Range of 4+ miles.

Also, I'm willing to bet that they are already in place. Seems like these announcements of "future" deliveries have usually already happened.

 

[atomheartbevo 89450]

6 minutes ago, Lobo said:

It's almost as if holding one man in idolatry above a nation's core principles and democracy is a dangerous thing.  Surely there are no historical lessons to be gleaned.

It's going to be a shitshow when Putin is removed from office, once way or another, and that's by design - Putin wants to make it as difficult as possible to be replaced, so that people under him don't get any bright ideas.

Remember Georgy Malenkov?

If not, no biggie, he's just the guy who succeed Stalin as Premier and head of the CCCP.

Well, briefly (less than a dozen days or so), then he was replaced by Khrushchev in one and then another position, and a few years later he would try and stage a coup against Khrushchev.  For some reason, Khrushchev didn't have him killed and he lived on for another 25 years or so.

Important to note - he endeared himself to Stalin by fucking over other people jockeying for Stalin's attention, and he was also involved in carrying out Stalin's purges.

So figure out who the 2022 version of Malenkov is. And then figure out who the 2022 version of Khrushchev is, because the internal pressure in Moscow has got to be building.  Russia going to fuck around and lose Crimea at the rate they are going.   Putin won't survive that.

[elfenix 34172]

11 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

It's going to be a shitshow when Putin is removed from office, once way or another, and that's by design - Putin wants to make it as difficult as possible to be replaced, so that people under him don't get any bright ideas.

Remember Georgy Malenkov?

If not, no biggie, he's just the guy who succeed Stalin as Premier and head of the CCCP.

Well, briefly (less than a dozen days or so), then he was replaced by Khrushchev in one and then another position, and a few years later he would try and stage a coup against Khrushchev.  For some reason, Khrushchev didn't have him killed and he lived on for another 25 years or so.

Important to note - he endeared himself to Stalin by fucking over other people jockeying for Stalin's attention, and he was also involved in carrying out Stalin's purges.

So figure out who the 2022 version of Malenkov is. And then figure out who the 2022 version of Khrushchev is, because the internal pressure in Moscow has got to be building.  Russia going to fuck around and lose Crimea at the rate they are going.   Putin won't survive that.

[atomheartbevo 89450]

[elfenix 34172]

"we want these break away parts to be russia"

*demolishes donetsk and luhansk*

"we did say break"

[MillerEP 30339]

Confused orc technique 👀

Trostyanets liberated, Russian BMP-2 and convoy trucks destroyed.

Chornobambilavka - 12, already in rental.

Trostyanets, destroyed by Russian Kamaz Typhoon, loaded for MLRS Hurricane and BMP

Trostyanets, destroyed the Russian pontoon bridge and the trophy BMP-2

Trostyanets, trophy Russian T-80BV tank

The photo shows two captured Russian T-72s. Ukrainian tankers have already taken them to the rear. After the repair, the equipment will strengthen one of the crews. And these are not all the trophies won by Ukrainian forces during the operation to liberate this settlement.

The Russian T-72B3 tank was destroyed

Trostyanets trophy Russian tank T-80UE-1

 

[InkaUtexas 25523]

 

 

 

[Hefeweizen 5307]

2 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

 

 

 

It's unbelievable to  see such catastrophic execution in near real time.  Like watching a Tom Herman coached team run the same stupid play that doesn't work over, over, over.

[gmr548 16517]

Like watching a Tom Herman coached team run the same stupid play that doesn't work over, over, over.

Jesus Christ. Need a spoiler and a trigger warning for this shit.

[Scheiss Meister 8399]

I hope that Russia doesn't learn just like Herman.

[Shaddie 1638]

15 minutes ago, Hefeweizen said:

It's unbelievable to  see such catastrophic execution in near real time.  Like watching a Tom Herman coached team run the same stupid play that doesn't work over, over, over.

Negged for truth dammit. 

[atomheartbevo 89450]

Dmitry Kiselyov is "Putin's mouthpiece" and one of the top Russian news presenters.

[Thatguy 8505]

On 3/26/2022 at 3:28 PM, South Austin said:

Very good. Piss off Turkey, Putin. Please.

[atomheartbevo 89450]

 

[KYHorn 16865]

 

 

 

[KYHorn 16865]

 

 

 

[The Dog 43808]

7 minutes ago, KYHorn said:

 

 

 

'member when that dude said that when Russia ran out of trucks that the Ukes would be able to counterattack everywhere?

I 'member...

[InkaUtexas 25523]

1 minute ago, The Dog said:

'member when that dude said that when Russia ran out of trucks that the Ukes would be able to counterattack everywhere?

I 'member...

In a defensive posture it is easier to counterattack. Ukraine is not hampered by a fucked up supply chain. Just look at their troops on social media. Their morale is high, and a lot of times that means you are eating and supplied. 

I think the Orcs can go on the defensive, dig in and make any counter attacks very costly. So the question is what will the Ukraine give up? Territory? The right to join the EU and or NATO? The ports? I fear this shit is not over anytime soon. 

[The Dog 43808]

2 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

In a defensive posture it is easier to counterattack. Ukraine is not hampered by a fucked up supply chain. Just look at their troops on social media. Their morale is high, and a lot of times that means you are eating and supplied. 

I think the Orcs can go on the defensive, dig in and make any counter attacks very costly. So the question is what will the Ukraine give up? Territory? The right to join the EU and or NATO? The ports? I fear this shit is not over anytime soon. 

the Ukes are three things the Russians are not:

1. Motivated

2. Well supplied

3. Fed

The Russians are fucked IMHO.

Edit to add and they are very good at being mobile - the Russians can't seem to do that at all. 

Edited March 28, 2022 by The Dog

[InkaUtexas 25523]

4 minutes ago, The Dog said:

the Ukes are three things the Russians are not:

1. Motivated

2. Well supplied

3. Fed

The Russians are fucked IMHO.

Edit to add and they are very good at being mobile - the Russians can't seem to do that at all. 

Exactly. It is quite telling. But can the UA dislodge them if they pulled back to easier positions to support? I mean I don't see them taking Kyiv from the west. Pull those troops back, reinforce units in the east. My thoughts early on was Putin wanted to consolidate and create a weak ass shit buffer state. How much land does the Ukraine now give him? 

 

[atomheartbevo 89450]

 

42 minutes ago, KYHorn said:

 

 

 

Helps that the Russians keep trying to put troops/aircraft/etc. at the same fucking airports day-after-day.

Edited March 28, 2022 by atomheartbevo

[Rimbo 25785]

2 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

 

 

 

[atomheartbevo 89450]

31 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

In a defensive posture it is easier to counterattack. Ukraine is not hampered by a fucked up supply chain. Just look at their troops on social media. Their morale is high, and a lot of times that means you are eating and supplied. 

A lot of those Russian conscripts that look malnourished, etc. -  I just realized that these are the same guys we see in those drunk Russian videos where people are fucking with each other, getting drunk and getting in fights, etc.

31 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

I think the Orcs can go on the defensive, dig in and make any counter attacks very costly. So the question is what will the Ukraine give up? Territory? The right to join the EU and or NATO? The ports? I fear this shit is not over anytime soon. 

They won't give up the right to the EU.  They won't give up their ports/coastline - they've shed way too much blood, and hell the Russians can't even occupy what they've already attacked, let alone toss Odessa into the mix (which has been fortifying for the last month).

We are now in that phase that Mark Hertling and others predicted, where Ukraine would start to go on the offensive a lot more.

And as he points out here, hard for them to refit/redeploy - they will be relying on conscripts and reserves.

 

[mchookem 16225]

52 minutes ago, KYHorn said:

 

 

 

raise your hand if you learned a new word today lol

[atomheartbevo 89450]

Would be awesome if they got some off-camera stuff that was picked up by the cameras, like the hosts talking candidly about the war, etc.

Of course, average Russians will probably not see it.

Edited March 28, 2022 by atomheartbevo

[Scheiss Meister 8399]

46 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

 

Helps that the Russians keep trying to put troops/aircraft/etc. at the same fucking airports day-after-day.

It reminds me of one of the quotes attributed to Wellington about the French at Waterloo: "They came on in the same old way and we defeated them in the same old way."

[956 Worldwide 34444]

Really good article about the reckoning that needs to happen for Germany.  The descriptors are telling.  “Smugness” is the big one, which hits home.  It’s been years of smugness from the German establishment that acted like Ukrainians were hysterical and maybe worse than Russia, while the U.S. was alternately scheming to destroy RU-German ties or just acting stupid.

https://www.politico.eu/article/putin-merkel-germany-scholz-foreign-policy-ukraine-war-invasion-nord-stream-2/

 

Quote

During the Cold War, the term “useful idiot” became a label for moderates in the West who fell victim to the communists’ credulous arguments.

From Germany’s veto of NATO membership for Ukraine and Georgia in 2008 to its pursuit of gas deals with Moscow to its resistance to send arms to Kyiv — the country’s leaders have served as Putin’s useful idiots.

All the while, the so-called Russlandversteher, the smug Russian sympathizers who populate the country’s political establishment, rejected criticism of their course, insisting they knew better while (literally) laughing in Washington’s face.

No one’s laughing anymore.  

 

 

[Bevo 13527]

So what will the end game look like if Ukraine is unwilling to give up land? Russia can bomb from a distance indefinitely so Ukraine can't really rebuild. Under this scenario, at some point, the west is going to get sick of giving weapons and money to Ukraine and is going to want Russian O&G. The alternative is for the West to eventually give offensive weapons so Ukraine can hit targets in Russia and Belarus. Russia would then go to WMDs if targets in its own country were hit. With those two choices, it looks to me like their will have to be a settlement in the end. What are some other options?

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3868]

35 minutes ago, Bevo said:

So what will the end game look like if Ukraine is unwilling to give up land? Russia can bomb from a distance indefinitely so Ukraine can't really rebuild. Under this scenario, at some point, the west is going to get sick of giving weapons and money to Ukraine and is going to want Russian O&G. The alternative is for the West to eventually give offensive weapons so Ukraine can hit targets in Russia and Belarus. Russia would then go to WMDs if targets in its own country were hit. With those two choices, it looks to me like their will have to be a settlement in the end. What are some other options?

A lot of speculation they are running out of smart munitions and with sanctions are going to have a hard time building new ones.  RU fired over 70 missiles on the 27th and all but 8 of them got shot down so something new is in theatre.

Some idiot leaked OpSec that it will take 5 years of 3 shifts for Lockheed to replenish the Javelin stocks sent to Ukraine.

[Shady Ray 1633]

On 3/26/2022 at 4:23 PM, dimyh said:

@956 Worldwide @Shady Ray

Any updates on the general public perception in Germany/EU at the moment? We are past the initial shock phase and was curious how strong their sanction sentiment was running. Would love to see a quick Russian capitulation but this could easily become a multi year economic struggle. Definitely need EU on board and committed if we are ever going to bury this neo-Soviet nonsense.

That is reallllly complicated at the moment in Germany. The past month basically consisted of the centrist parties (SPD, Greens, CDU, FDP) trying to A) outdo themselves to get ahead of what they were trying to identify as the public mood, and B) inoculate themselves against an avalanche of external criticism from the collective West. That result tended to be hawkish wrt sanctions and anti-Russian measures. However, as I said in one of my longcat posts of the past, gauging German sentiment is VERY difficult to do. Germans at large simply do not behave the same way as other western electorates when it comes to public display of politics. That whole Nazi/Stasi Combo tends to do that. They are not particularly vocal - individually or as an interest group/block outside of Organized Labor. They don’t tend to demonstrate. They don’t tend to openly discuss controversial matters and the difference between a German speaking outside of the house and a German speaking in the privacy of their own homes is extremely different. And I know this tends to be the case with most people to a degree, but public/private opinion is much more disparate with Germans. This is of course a result of the country’s past and the extra steps taken to publicly appear “open and accepting” wrt to foreigners. And Germans tend to have an implicit understanding that media/politicians are going to say and do things designed to show Germany as a progressive, tolerant place. And so long as they quietly toe the line on putting German interest firsts generally, the press/public statements can write what it wants without much backlash. Basically Germans expect their politicians to ACT in their interest, but they don’t have to SPEAK in such a way, per se. No one is going to ding a pol for misspeaking to the global press.
 

So, this combination of things makes it really tough to read the tea leaves as to the mood of the country.
 

But, that said, I think we have entered into a new phase where the electorate has remained largely understanding of the steps that have been taken to date wrt sanctions and generally sympathetic to the Ukrainian people. However, I do feel that is coming to a new phase to some degree.
 

Scholz came out last week and said “there is no compromise possible” when it comes to an embargo of Russian O&G in the near future. Italy then supported this position. But the rest of Europe is pushing for this and the current German government is very susceptible to this type of pressure, as the SPD and Green identity is one geared towards pan-European integration/solidarity/acceptance. But, the politicians recognize that this is simply not possible for the country. There were studies that came out last week in Germany from the Economics and Finance Ministries and other respected institutions that essentially said that an embargo would result in immediately collapsing the German economy with hundreds of thousands of jobs immediately gone like kraut-fueled farts in the wind. And the people are terrified of this and at least a majority of voters are not going to tolerate such a hasty move just because people in Brussels or Warsaw or Kiev are bitching at the Germans for not being team players. 
 

However, something like an escalation in Ukraine via Russian chemical attack or expansion of the current war plan would put immeasurable pressure on the government, which then might feel compelled to agree to the embargo, at which time, all structural supports within the various political parties would collapse and where the cards would fall electorally would be anyone’s guess. The question of how deep the sympathy of the average German runs for Ukraine is very much up for debate. No one really knows at this point, but I would bet it ends right about the place where German interests start to take any more of a hit.
 

Right now, the shifts in the weekly polls have been rather benign…the Greens lose a couple of points to the SPD, or vice versa; or the Free Dems lose a couple to their ideological cousins in the CDU, or vice versa, but nothing particularly seismic (notwithstanding a blowout election in the Saarland yesterday where the SPD made major gains, but which was seen as largely local-issue driven). Which is insane given what all has gone on domestically since last September’s elections…but none of the mainline parties are particularly distinct right now - they all kind of blend together - so people are somewhat confused as to differentiation. 
 

So, I guess you could say that we are in somewhat of a holding pattern politically. Although I think anyone who genuinely understands German politics knows that something has to give when push comes to shove, which will likely occur once the fallout comes when the hit to Industry comes, along with a rapidly increasing rate of inflation. It is also worth noting that Germans are much, much less tolerant of inflation. This is a nation of cash hoarders who are obsessive inflation hawks, always tuned into the real inflation rate.  

But the other point that is slowly bubbling up is a growing German backlash to being publicly chastised by the East Europeans, specifically the Poles. Poland’s openness to military action has gotten it a lot of good press in the West, but the Germans are drawing a line politically on Polish/Baltic/Ukrainian leveraging of the situation to gain influence on “tangentially-related” Ukrainian war issues. The German government is being careful to support common European political positioning here, but they are not going to allow the current Polish government to be seen as leaders on anything outside of the Ukraine war, as up until the war were seen as complete nut jobs on other issues important to the European project. So the government is essentially drawing a bright line between prior concessions such as weapons transfers/NS2 and future, less-directly related issues like EU membership, special status for Ukraine, etc. I don’t see a lot of coverage of this in English language media, but it is definitely there in German press.
 

For example, a rush to EU membership for Ukraine. The Poles and the Balts and other former Warsaw Pact countries have been really loud over the last two weeks essentially demanding a "fast track" for Kiev to join the EU, with Zelensky blasting the Germans explicitly a few days ago as being the biggest obstacle for that. This has not gone down well, and even the mainline commenters have said, “Sure, those like the Poles who take take and take from the EU coffers are more than happy to let another net-taker in for more euros sent eastward from GerMoney. But in reality, we cannot and will not allow this.” This has been backed by the Dutch and the Nordics, which means any talk of “fast tracking Ukraine” is likely all for show at this stage. But Zelensky is starting to be seen in a similar light as the Polish leadership, which isn’t good when it comes to influencing Germans in the long run. As I have mentioned in earlier posts, the relationships between the Ukrainian and German governments aren’t good and any positive steps made by the Germans to date have ultimately been made as nods to the US and Brussels, but not to Kiev.
 

And on this topic, Germany is very united. I think that’s why we have seen a resurgence in stories (there was a fresh one this morning in Welt that was literally entitled "Ukraine Really is This Corrupt") reminding the country of how deeply corrupt Ukraine is. The Government isn’t going to budge on this. There was a discussion on the Anne Will program (big political talk show) over the weekend basically saying, “The foolish acceptance of Greece into the EU with their corruption and cooked books has set back progress in the EU/Eurozone by years, and damn near killed the common currency…we aren’t going to rush to green-light Ukraine out of the same concerns.”



Same goes for refugees…the level of centrist support for temporary, fixed stays (as opposed to open-ended invitations as per 2015 crisis) has been much more subdued than it was with the Syrians in 2015. The Germans are going to accept them and house them until the war stops, but the government and opposition are already pushing out plans to register them and to essentially make it impossible for there to be any form of voluntary relocation within the country from smaller regional centers to more “exciting/interesting” places like Berlin, Munich, and Hamburg, which already struggle to provide housing for their own citizenry. And then, once Ukraine is deemed safe, the benefits will stop immediately. This is a volatile issue that none of the politicians really want to re-open after the clusterfuck of 2015.
 

So, I guess to answer your question…it isn’t clear yet. Germans are gonna German, so the support isn’t nearly as high as elsewhere in Europe. My own personal impression is that the business and political communities are hunkered down trying to avoid negative PR just hoping this will blow over so they can recalibrate next steps.

[Thatguy 8505]

14 minutes ago, Shady Ray said:

That is reallllly complicated at the moment in Germany. The past month basically consisted of the centrist parties (SPD, Greens, CDU, FDP) trying to A) outdo themselves to get ahead of what they were trying to identify as the public mood, and B) inoculate themselves against an avalanche of external criticism from the collective West. That result tended to be hawkish wrt sanctions and anti-Russian measures. However, as I said in one of my longcat posts of the past, gauging German sentiment is VERY difficult to do. Germans at large simply do not behave the same way as other western electorates when it comes to public display of politics. That whole Nazi/Stasi Combo tends to do that. They are not particularly vocal - individually or as an interest group/block outside of Organized Labor. They don’t tend to demonstrate. They don’t tend to openly discuss controversial matters and the difference between a German speaking outside of the house and a German speaking in the privacy of their own homes is extremely different. And I know this tends to be the case with most people to a degree, but public/private opinion is much more disparate with Germans. This is of course a result of the country’s past and the extra steps taken to publicly appear “open and accepting” wrt to foreigners. And Germans tend to have an implicit understanding that media/politicians are going to say and do things designed to show Germany as a progressive, tolerant place. And so long as they quietly toe the line on putting German interest firsts generally, the press/public statements can write what it wants without much backlash. Basically Germans expect their politicians to ACT in their interest, but they don’t have to SPEAK in such a way, per se. No one is going to ding a pol for misspeaking to the global press.
 

So, this combination of things makes it really tough to read the tea leaves as to the mood of the country.
 

But, that said, I think we have entered into a new phase where the electorate has remained largely understanding of the steps that have been taken to date wrt sanctions and generally sympathetic to the Ukrainian people. However, I do feel that is coming to a new phase to some degree.
 

Scholz came out last week and said “there is no compromise possible” when it comes to an embargo of Russian O&G in the near future. Italy then supported this position. But the rest of Europe is pushing for this and the current German government is very susceptible to this type of pressure, as the SPD and Green identity is one geared towards pan-European integration/solidarity/acceptance. But, the politicians recognize that this is simply not possible for the country. There were studies that came out last week in Germany from the Economics and Finance Ministries and other respected institutions that essentially said that an embargo would result in immediately collapsing the German economy with hundreds of thousands of jobs immediately gone like kraut-fueled farts in the wind. And the people are terrified of this and at least a majority of voters are not going to tolerate such a hasty move just because people in Brussels or Warsaw or Kiev are bitching at the Germans for not being team players. 
 

However, something like an escalation in Ukraine via Russian chemical attack or expansion of the current war plan would put immeasurable pressure on the government, which then might feel compelled to agree to the embargo, at which time, all structural supports within the various political parties would collapse and where the cards would fall electorally would be anyone’s guess. The question of how deep the sympathy of the average German runs for Ukraine is very much up for debate. No one really knows at this point, but I would bet it ends right about the place where German interests start to take any more of a hit.
 

Right now, the shifts in the weekly polls have been rather benign…the Greens lose a couple of points to the SPD, or vice versa; or the Free Dems lose a couple to their ideological cousins in the CDU, or vice versa, but nothing particularly seismic (notwithstanding a blowout election in the Saarland yesterday where the SPD made major gains, but which was seen as largely local-issue driven). Which is insane given what all has gone on domestically since last September’s elections…but none of the mainline parties are particularly distinct right now - they all kind of blend together - so people are somewhat confused as to differentiation. 
 

So, I guess you could say that we are in somewhat of a holding pattern politically. Although I think anyone who genuinely understands German politics knows that something has to give when push comes to shove, which will likely occur once the fallout comes when the hit to Industry comes, along with a rapidly increasing rate of inflation. It is also worth noting that Germans are much, much less tolerant of inflation. This is a nation of cash hoarders who are obsessive inflation hawks, always tuned into the real inflation rate.  

But the other point that is slowly bubbling up is a growing German backlash to being publicly chastised by the East Europeans, specifically the Poles. Poland’s openness to military action has gotten it a lot of good press in the West, but the Germans are drawing a line politically on Polish/Baltic/Ukrainian leveraging of the situation to gain influence on “tangentially-related” Ukrainian war issues. The German government is being careful to support common European political positioning here, but they are not going to allow the current Polish government to be seen as leaders on anything outside of the Ukraine war, as up until the war were seen as complete nut jobs on other issues important to the European project. So the government is essentially drawing a bright line between prior concessions such as weapons transfers/NS2 and future, less-directly related issues like EU membership, special status for Ukraine, etc. I don’t see a lot of coverage of this in English language media, but it is definitely there in German press.
 

For example, a rush to EU membership for Ukraine. The Poles and the Balts and other former Warsaw Pact countries have been really loud over the last two weeks essentially demanding a "fast track" for Kiev to join the EU, with Zelensky blasting the Germans explicitly a few days ago as being the biggest obstacle for that. This has not gone down well, and even the mainline commenters have said, “Sure, those like the Poles who take take and take from the EU coffers are more than happy to let another net-taker in for more euros sent eastward from GerMoney. But in reality, we cannot and will not allow this.” This has been backed by the Dutch and the Nordics, which means any talk of “fast tracking Ukraine” is likely all for show at this stage. But Zelensky is starting to be seen in a similar light as the Polish leadership, which isn’t good when it comes to influencing Germans in the long run. As I have mentioned in earlier posts, the relationships between the Ukrainian and German governments aren’t good and any positive steps made by the Germans to date have ultimately been made as nods to the US and Brussels, but not to Kiev.
 

And on this topic, Germany is very united. I think that’s why we have seen a resurgence in stories (there was a fresh one this morning in Welt that was literally entitled "Ukraine Really is This Corrupt") reminding the country of how deeply corrupt Ukraine is. The Government isn’t going to budge on this. There was a discussion on the Anne Will program (big political talk show) over the weekend basically saying, “The foolish acceptance of Greece into the EU with their corruption and cooked books has set back progress in the EU/Eurozone by years, and damn near killed the common currency…we aren’t going to rush to green-light Ukraine out of the same concerns.”



Same goes for refugees…the level of centrist support for temporary, fixed stays (as opposed to open-ended invitations as per 2015 crisis) has been much more subdued than it was with the Syrians in 2015. The Germans are going to accept them and house them until the war stops, but the government and opposition are already pushing out plans to register them and to essentially make it impossible for there to be any form of voluntary relocation within the country from smaller regional centers to more “exciting/interesting” places like Berlin, Munich, and Hamburg, which already struggle to provide housing for their own citizenry. And then, once Ukraine is deemed safe, the benefits will stop immediately. This is a volatile issue that none of the politicians really want to re-open after the clusterfuck of 2015.
 

So, I guess to answer your question…it isn’t clear yet. Germans are gonna German, so the support isn’t nearly as high as elsewhere in Europe. My own personal impression is that the business and political communities are hunkered down trying to avoid negative PR just hoping this will blow over so they can recalibrate next steps.

[Parliament 14138]

40 minutes ago, ShaggyBevo RIP said:

Some idiot leaked OpSec that it will take 5 years of 3 shifts for Lockheed to replenish the Javelin stocks sent to Ukraine.

1) Not downplaying the challenge, but I believe our Military-Industrial Complex is up to the task.

2)  Why didn't I buy Lockheed stock last falk? 

[BabaYaga 15213]

40 minutes ago, Shady Ray said:

But, the politicians recognize that this is simply not possible for the country. There were studies that came out last week in Germany from the Economics and Finance Ministries and other respected institutions that essentially said that an embargo would result in immediately collapsing the German economy with hundreds of thousands of jobs immediately gone like kraut-fueled farts in the wind.

The crux of their issue.  I and many others have stated this time and time again.  They have themselves wrapped about the axle with Russia and Putin knows it.  You overlay this with the initial thought that UA resistance would be minimal, and a war-weary West, and you see the beginnings of a plan and insight into the timing.  

[MNLonghornFUKM 8799]

So what will the end game look like if Ukraine is unwilling to give up land? Russia can bomb from a distance indefinitely so Ukraine can't really rebuild. Under this scenario, at some point, the west is going to get sick of giving weapons and money to Ukraine and is going to want Russian O&G. The alternative is for the West to eventually give offensive weapons so Ukraine can hit targets in Russia and Belarus. Russia would then go to WMDs if targets in its own country were hit. With those two choices, it looks to me like their will have to be a settlement in the end. What are some other options?

My guess: Ukraine is now wasteland rubble 25-50 years after russia quits whenever that is. Probably more than 50.Russia uses a boat load of their stockpile on this pointless campaign. In the mean while are also shut out from the world from an economic standpoint so now they can’t defend themselves and they can’t replenish/ rebuild.

No idea what China does in the end. Probably owns all of russia after they bail them out

[BabaYaga 15213]

7 minutes ago, Parliament said:

1) Not downplaying the challenge, but I believe our Military-Industrial Complex is up to the task.

2)  Why didn't I buy Lockheed stock last falk? 

Yep, they are LOVING every minute of this.  They are also getting a box-suite view of a modern battlefield and are taking notes.  So much R&D will come from this along with freshly inflated defense spending.....the technological progeny of this fight will be significant.  It's going to be some Call of Duty/Battlefield type shit that my kid plays.  

[Chad Fuck 17567]

A lot of speculation they are running out of smart munitions and with sanctions are going to have a hard time building new ones.  RU fired over 70 missiles on the 27th and all but 8 of them got shot down so something new is in theatre.
Some idiot leaked OpSec that it will take 5 years of 3 shifts for Lockheed to replenish the Javelin stocks sent to Ukraine.

What an idiot. On the other hand sounds like a good jobs program for the foreseeable future.

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3868]

9 hours ago, The Dog said:

'member when that dude said that when Russia ran out of trucks that the Ukes would be able to counterattack everywhere?

I 'member...

Plus the dude that said RU logistics over 90km from rail resupply are shit.

[GW Hayduke 1952]

1 hour ago, Bevo said:

So what will the end game look like if Ukraine is unwilling to give up land? Russia can bomb from a distance indefinitely so Ukraine can't really rebuild. Under this scenario, at some point, the west is going to get sick of giving weapons and money to Ukraine and is going to want Russian O&G. The alternative is for the West to eventually give offensive weapons so Ukraine can hit targets in Russia and Belarus. Russia would then go to WMDs if targets in its own country were hit. With those two choices, it looks to me like their will have to be a settlement in the end. What are some other options?

Russian oligarchs, those around putin, or the rest of the russian population decide they don't want to be North Korea anymore and then do the right thing.  "Putin cannot remain in power" were accurate words 

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[Hermanator 6945]

11 hours ago, Hefeweizen said:

It's unbelievable to  see such catastrophic execution in near real time.  Like watching a Tom Herman coached team run the same stupid play that doesn't work over, over, over.

Honestly it looks more like Sark taking his boy Card on the Arkansas field and the boy is pissing himself in front of the prime time sports world. 

Just a complete disaster of incompetence and fear

[atomheartbevo 89450]

Russia is whining that NATO is prolonging the conflict

 

[atomheartbevo 89450]

Rough for the family members, but a lot of these soldiers are volunteers so FAFO.

[utee94 15746]

Lulz.  There's a simple solution to ending the hostilities in Ukraine.

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3868]

https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1508435315123445761?s=20&t=fMDrwqezUc7DClRnu2nK0Q

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[956 Worldwide 34444]

12 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

 

As with most things Russia does, this will hurt ordinary Russians the most. The only people who really want to go there from “unfriendly” countries are people who have family ties.  We should expect soon for Russians in Russia to get pressure to denounce/sever ties with “disloyal” family members who “fled.”

[686 3405]

So what will the end game look like if Ukraine is unwilling to give up land? Russia can bomb from a distance indefinitely so Ukraine can't really rebuild. Under this scenario, at some point, the west is going to get sick of giving weapons and money to Ukraine and is going to want Russian O&G. The alternative is for the West to eventually give offensive weapons so Ukraine can hit targets in Russia and Belarus. Russia would then go to WMDs if targets in its own country were hit. With those two choices, it looks to me like their will have to be a settlement in the end. What are some other options?

The bigger question in your scenario is: how long can Russia endure with its economy in tatters? Is a ~30-50% GDP reduction for years worth some little slivers of land?

The US defense budget alone is over $600B. We could keep sending Ukraine a billion a month in material, etc. and it would probably be some of the best ROI ever with how much we’re getting from Russia.