Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[InkaUtexas 25523]

3 minutes ago, texastough said:

I've been wondering whether anyone has analyzed of the rate of Russian losses, like the OSInt guys or Rob Lee etc. All else being equal, it would seem that as Russia's losses mount, morale degrades, supplies run out etc. the rate of their losses would increase. I know that "all else being equal" is a fiction in the fog of war, as Russia stops advancing and digs in, and so forth. 

Anyway I decided to look at Ukraine's claimed numbers put out through the Kyiv Indepenent. But, their Twitter only went back to March 12, but thats about halfway through the conflict so it works. Here's what it shows. As of March 12, Ukraine claimed that Russia had lost:

12,000 troops, 58 planes, 83 helicopters, 362 tanks, 585 other vehicles, 1,205 armored personnel carriers, etc

As of March 28, Ukraine claimed Russia has lost

17,000 troops, 123 planes, 127 helicopters, 586 tanks, 1,150 other vehicles, 1,694 armored personnel carriers

Not a ton to be gleaned from that info, but if that info is true, it would indicate Russia's losses have slowed slightly since March 12.

Even if half that, damn it is an ass kicking. Lets say it is 8,500-10,000 KIA. Hell of a loss. 

[texastough 1129]

Just now, InkaUtexas said:

Even if half that, damn it is an ass kicking. Lets say it is 8,500-10,000 KIA. Hell of a loss. 

I think those troop numbers include kia, wounded, captured, etc.

[atomheartbevo 89450]

1 minute ago, texastough said:

I've been wondering whether anyone has analyzed of the rate of Russian losses, like the OSInt guys or Rob Lee etc.

I'm sure they are - there's a lot of OSINT dudes who are doing all kinds of wizardry with spreadsheets, etc. and looking at all of this.

1 minute ago, texastough said:

Not a ton to be gleaned from that info, but if that info is true, it would indicate Russia's losses have slowed slightly since March 12.

Could match Russia pulling hard-hit units out of areas, going on the defensive, etc.  Also, a shit-ton of Russian officers and NCOs have been killed, which could make the remaining (and replacement) officers skittish.  

It's so much data though, to the point where people like Rob Lee aren't posting everything - like I said, he gets very selective, and so one day he'll show a bunch of Russian obituaries from Russian troops from certain parts of Russia, the next he'll make a bunch of posts showing certain units losing key officers, and so on.

One thing that should be noted - when Lee and others post the death notices, some of these are for deaths that happened a month ago, but the funerals happen weeks later, or the OSINT guys don't come across the data until well after the funeral.

And all of this relies on internet being reliable in areas where there is fighting, and somebody being there to take a photo and upload it, and somebody else to see it and put it in, etc.

Still, it's significant that there's been visual confirmation of 2,000+ Russian vehicle (including aerial) losses.  That's over 65 vehicles a day, and they can't replace most of those.

[Ag with kids 581]

5 minutes ago, texastough said:

I think those troop numbers include kia, wounded, captured, etc.

We lost a third of that in 20 years in A-stan...

[cactusflinthead 27594]

The drone operators were drawn from an air reconnaissance unit, Aerorozvidka, which began eight years ago as a group of volunteer IT specialists and hobbyists designing their own machines and has evolved into an essential element in Ukraine’s successful David-and-Goliath resistance.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/28/the-drone-operators-who-halted-the-russian-armoured-vehicles-heading-for-kyiv

[elfenix 34172]

5 hours ago, BabaYaga said:

Of course.  Just curious if they even bothered to write it down and/or define it?

going about as well as this:

[elfenix 34172]

3 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

There is going to be a huge paradigm shift in the coming years.  And I hate the term "paradigm shift", but it's true.  We will have to be concerned with hard-to-spot drones flying into our rear areas and hitting vehicles, depots, troop congregations, etc.

[Bobby_Batronic 1994]

1 hour ago, InkaUtexas said:

Yep. Know a few of those as well. Not getting into it, but DAAAAMMMMMMMNNNNNN it is scary what they are working on. No human is going to be flying an X-Fighter like in the movies. 

Dune. People will be back to fighting with blades and very simple guns. 

1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

They've always been a soft spot (unless your the Huns as you said or William Tecumseh Fucking Sherman going through Georgia), but now you have off-the-shelf drones with off-the-shelf grenades that can threaten your rear area with no real risk, financial or troop-wise.  

As mentioned earlier, we aren't going to be in a situation where anybody is charging through the Fulda Gap with tanks, but we are going to have to thread the needle on dealing with a power such as China (or Russia LOL) where they might have a large drone infrastructure that includes stand-off, AI-powered suicide drones like the Switchblade, combined with really lethal anti-air and anti-tank weapons carried by individual soldiers.  And then you have say an Iraq or Afghanistan where within 5-10 years they could have Switchblade knock-offs which are smaller, and may not even need to be controlled remotely.

It's going to create a need for additional soldiers/units assigned to larger units (battalion level I would think) that are going to have to be fairly large in terms of equipment to support the anti-drone systems.  C-RAMs aren't going to be enough.

Defense planners are going to have major headaches going forward. 

C-Ram for drones is like using shotguns on Yellowjacket’s. I don’t know what kind of active protection is being developed, but I would imagine directed energy would be the best bet after jamming and counter drones if it can ever be made small, reliable and portable. 

One of the problems the Russians are having is that they’re all flank being relegated to main roads. It’s easy to get behind the pointy end and do damage to the support mechanism. I wonder if the solution is to have the logistics end stop short of drone range, and then have unmanned smaller vehicles (4 wheeler sized or Johnny 5’s) bring the ammunition and food stuffs the test of the way up. Basically forced drone operators to get up close and personal with the fighting end if they want to attack the tail. 
 

Ofcourse, swarm attacks may make all of that unviable. 

Edited March 29, 2022 by Bobby_Batronic

[Hook'Em0608 96]

1 hour ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

I work for a big tech company, but I work with a small team that focuses on Analytics and AI/ML workloads. We released a software product about 18 months ago with very little fanfare that is designed to do real time analytics on data streams. It's a tool, not a complete solution, but it has real promise in the IOT and Edge space. Shortly after release, we put up some pre-recorded webinars on our website, and about a week later I got a call from one of our DOD reps that the CG of the 82nd Airborne wanted to hear more about the software and had given us a couple times/dates for an initial meeting. We put together a virtual meeting ASAP, and General Christopher Donahue himself was the first person on the call. We spent two hours with him and his technical team just throwing questions rapid fire to a couple of our engineers, and when the call wrapped up, he asked us how soon we could get to Bragg for a workshop. The first use case they identified in the workshop? Finding drones. He said they weren't worried about large Military Grade UAVs, but commercially available units like DJI and Mavic that could be used for intelligence gathering and target spotting. Based on what Ukraine is doing, his concerns seem to have been well founded. 

Great to hear!

[atomheartbevo 89450]

 

[BrickTop 474]

So basically a flack gun.

Planes, cruise missiles, drones, close in antipersonnel, but yea that would be pretty bad ass to have in a convoy but I’m pretty sure they’re heavy as fuck and at 6k rounds a minute gonna need a truck as an ammo bearer. One question though is their guidance integrated or are gonna be married to a big ass radar assembly?

[cactusflinthead 27594]

 

[cactusflinthead 27594]

"When they were asked if they knew about the 1986 catastrophe, the explosion of the fourth block (of the Chernobyl plant), they did not have a clue. They had no idea what kind of a facility they were at," he said.

"We talked to regular soldiers. All we heard from them was 'It's critically important infrastructure'. That was it," the man said.

 

[atomheartbevo 89450]

https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/28/politics/pentagon-stinger-missile-production-for-ukraine/index.html

Pentagon ramping up Stinger and Javelin production.

Quote

By March 7, less than two weeks into Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the US and other NATO members had sent about 17,000 anti-tank missiles and 2,000 anti-aircraft missiles to Ukraine. Since then, that number has certainly increased but an update has not been made public.

Quote

The Stinger production line had shut down but was restarted to fulfill a foreign sales order. Now, in order to keep it open efficiently, several options to increase production capacity and decrease production timelines are being considered in consultation with prime contractor Raytheon, according to Jessica Maxwell, a Pentagon spokeswoman.

Options include adding workers to the production lines, manufacturing new components to replace obsolete parts and purchasing additional tooling or test equipment for the production line, according to Maxwell.

Quote

Currently it takes about 18 to 24 months to manufacture a production lot of Stinger missiles, depending on the size of the lot. The Pentagon does not disclose specific inventory levels for munitions due to the sensitivity of the issue, but it maintains levels for what may be needed in conflict, under Defense Department policy.

Quote

The Javelin anti-tank system is in a full production mode, according to the Pentagon. However, the Pentagon is looking at trying to ramp up production.

Lockheed Martin, the Javelin manufacturer, "has the capacity to meet increased demand for the foreseeable future," a company spokeswoman said in a statement. Javelin anti-tank systems can be produced at a rate of more than 6,000 a year as of 2022, according to Department of Defense budget documents.

 

Edited March 29, 2022 by atomheartbevo

[Parliament 14138]

The Foo Fighters have an opening.

[freyguy 4245]

34 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

 

chickenshit weaklings shoot kids. 

 

I hope every Russian is happy that this 11 yr old Nazi was taken out of commission....This is their country that's doing this, noone else.

[tx 3 putt 76404]

5 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

I'm thinking that a new element to join every battlefield element (convoys, rear staging areas, etc.) will be some sort of close-in-weapon-system meant to detect and take out multiple small airborne targets -- like a scaled down Phalanx system:

 

 

I mean, it's either that or get me and all my dove hunting buddies out there with 10 gauges with a big-ass magazine.  And fair warning, some of us are mediocre shots.

 

every defensive system can be over whelmed 

[BrickTop 474]

https://www.instagram.com/tv/CbqvTI0J-6u/?utm_medium=copy_link
Legit holy shit

[Parliament 14138]

So this board has gone from virologists to supply chain experts to geopolitical foreign policy experts to defense technology consultants? Wow.  Yay us!

[atomheartbevo 89450]

2 minutes ago, BrickTop said:

https://www.instagram.com/tv/CbqvTI0J-6u/?utm_medium=copy_link
Legit holy shit

Some of the experts are saying that the person firing it was too close, so the warhead wasn't actually armed, hence the lack of turret launching.

Also, where the fuck are the infantry at?  If the person filming that tank had an AT weapon, they could have popped it through the top.

[atomheartbevo 89450]

If you want to be aggravated, watch the interview with Putin's spokesman, Peskov.  Of course, he can't say much since Putin would just have his family killed.

He has no doubt that all of their objectives of special military operations will be achieved.

He says there is no reason for what's happening in Ukraine to bring in nuclear weapons.  Which, based on Russia's statements before the war means they are going to drop nukes. And he rambles about Nazi battalions killing Ukrainian civilians.

And he describes Russia being at total war with Europe and the US, Australia, Canada, and whines about all of the asset seizing, financial cutoffs, etc. and he fucking whined about NATO and that we should be concerned about Russia's feelings, because their feelings are hurt.

 

[Macanudo 12928]

5 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

I'm thinking that a new element to join every battlefield element (convoys, rear staging areas, etc.) will be some sort of close-in-weapon-system meant to detect and take out multiple small airborne targets -- like a scaled down Phalanx system:

 

 

I mean, it's either that or get me and all my dove hunting buddies out there with 10 gauges with a big-ass magazine.  And fair warning, some of us are mediocre shots.

And by us he mean himself.

[Slacks 6791]

21 minutes ago, Parliament said:

So this board has gone from virologists to supply chain experts to geopolitical foreign policy experts to defense technology consultants? Wow.  Yay us!

That's just this thread... 

We have experts on all topics here.

[AUS-97HORN 11682]

13 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Some of the experts are saying that the person firing it was too close, so the warhead wasn't actually armed, hence the lack of turret launching.

Also, where the fuck are the infantry at?  If the person filming that tank had an AT weapon, they could have popped it through the top.

the NLAW only needs 20 meters to arm itself.  thats basically 65 feet.  thats pretty damn close.  if that shot came from the 3rd or 4th floor and it was just a bit behind, that should have been enough distance to arm.  unless the person shooting the NLAW  was literally standing next to the person filming (which is a slight possibility), in that case that looked to only be 30-40 feet away. 

The original post on I saw on twitter showing that hit, described that as an RPG hit, which I believe it was based on the impact point and how it glowed... which an RPG is designed to be a hot shaped charge of molten metal hitting a tiny point.   I would think an unarmed NLAW would have had some sort of warhead bounce away  because it hit but didnt arm in time. 

and if that was an RPG, with the exception of the tracks of a tank, and maybe the absolute belly underside of a tank, there is zero fucking chance any level of standard RPG will take out any post 1960 main battle tank.      Yes to lighter armored vehicles, but a tank is pretty safe from an RPG, again, barring a track hit. 

[atomheartbevo 89450]

1 minute ago, AUS-97HORN said:

and if that was an RPG, with the exception of the tracks of a tank, and maybe the absolute belly underside of a tank, there is zero fucking chance any level of standard RPG will take out any post 1960 main battle tank.      Yes to lighter armored vehicles, but a tank is pretty safe from an RPG, again, barring a track hit. 

He should have been able to put it into the engine area or definitely the tracks.  Then somebody else tosses a Molotov cocktail on the deck and sit back and wait for the Russian crew members to come out.

[cactusflinthead 27594]

Cry me a fucking river shitass

 

[Guest Lobo]

Speaking of propaganda, does he know he looks like the pedophile in every ABC after-school special in the 1980's? 

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3868]

1 hour ago, Parliament said:

So this board has gone from virologists to supply chain experts to geopolitical foreign policy experts to defense technology consultants? Wow.  Yay us!

Are you implying it is a special armchair operation?

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3868]

1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

Some of the experts are saying that the person firing it was too close, so the warhead wasn't actually armed, hence the lack of turret launching.

Also, where the fuck are the infantry at?  If the person filming that tank had an AT weapon, they could have popped it through the top.

It was an RPG and not a ATGM.

[F250 28691]

4 hours ago, FartingMonk said:

A few friends are doing some crazy ass shit with UUVs and they say it's going to make submarines and even the navy become obsolete in a decade or two.  Those things are beginning to really be able to self learn and navigate.  You basically are going to have a drone/torpedo hybrid that costs a million bucks and can't be detected or stopped taking out billion dollar capital ships.  That's fucking scary.

This sounds like Skynet.

I work in Big Tech and have seen a number of AI demonstrations from some start ups and a couple of times I looked like this when observing AI at work...

[MillerEP 30339]

 

Nice try russian propagandists, but you failed again!

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/tqgfg2/nice_try_russian_propagandists_but_you_failed/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/03/28/russian-spies-unmasked-embarrassing-blow-vladimir-putin/

Russian spies unmasked in embarrassing blow for Vladimir Putin
Ukraine releases list of identities of more than 600 alleged FSB agents, some of whom could possibly be operating in Britain

By
James Rothwell
28 March 2022 • 9:07pm

[conVINCEd 21468]

1 hour ago, Parliament said:

So this board has gone from virologists to supply chain experts to geopolitical foreign policy experts to defense technology consultants? Wow.  Yay us!

If you need an expert on 19th century Cambodian currency, we probably have a guy.

[Brisketexan 104628]

If you need an expert on 19th century Cambodian currency, we probably have a guy.

Don’t get me started on the colonialist POS that was the piaster. So glad they transitioned to the riel.

[Thatguy 8505]

5 hours ago, Buzzrock said:

This isn’t a Liam Neeson movie. I don’t think you’d be so willing to prolong the fighting after your wife and kids were dead if it meant the wives and kids of all your friends and neighbors were killed too. In fact, that would be a pretty shitty thing to do. 

Everything Putin says is a lie, including the last quote that Brisket posted. Also: he has nuclear weapons. 

    There you are.... Standing there having lost all the things you held dear in life. Man, people go into a murderous rage simply from finding out their significant other cheated on them and you think they wouldn't if they lost all of them? I would kill as many Russians as I could with gritted teeth. Why? Because I have nothing left to live for except extinguishing their lives, that's why. Right now my fear is only not being able to come home to my family. Not seeing my wife's smiling face. Not seeing my daughter play sports. Take that away from me and you just uncapped a rage that would likely only be extinguished when my casket is lowered in the ground.

[Nivek 16861]

    There you are.... Standing there having lost all the things you held dear in life. Man, people go into a murderous rage simply from finding out their significant other cheated on them and you think they wouldn't if they lost all of them? I would kill as many Russians as I could with gritted teeth. Why? Because I have nothing left to live for except extinguishing their lives, that's why. Right now my fear is only not being able to come home to my family. Not seeing my wife's smiling face. Not seeing my daughter play sports. Take that away from me and you just uncapped a rage that would likely only be extinguished when my casket is lowered in the ground.

As a ghost I would hide your keys too!

[BamaATL 16592]

Somewhat related, but very interesting as it will drive China's policy, at least to a degree.  

 

[686 3405]

This is the farthest turret-to-chassis final resting places I’ve seen yet.

http://

[elfenix 34172]

^^

[leaf 681]

8 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

 A really mean one. Been quite effective guarding the Embassy in Baghdad. 

 

 

 

[956 Worldwide 34444]

https://denikn.cz/minuta/847917/?ref=pop&rtm_source=web&rtm_medium=article&rtm_campaign=share_button&rtm_variant=copy_url&rtm_content=8064ddd4-6b6f-431a-950a-2cc38682e173
 

Hahah, Orban pissing everyone off.

”Hungary will cancel the planned V4 defense minister meeting.  The decision comes after Czech minister Cernochova and Polish minister Blasczaka decided not to participate due to Hungary’s approach to Russia. The meeting was to take place tomorrow.” 

[956 Worldwide 34444]

11 hours ago, TexasEd said:

F-35

I think they used to do the F16 there but that may have moved to SC

The F-16 moved to Greenville, SC for the block 70/72.

[Hefeweizen 5307]

 

And fucking Macron, he just doesn't get it.  He keeps trying to negotiate when France has no leverage or standing at all.  He's been diminished a lot by this crisis.  So impressed with Eastern Europe and the Baltics.  So disappointed in the rest of Europe right now (excepting NATO) - the one thing they can do to redeem this is take in refugees.

 

And I think one of the big reasons casualties are dropping is a change from trying to take territory to consolidation.  If Putin can hold the land bridge to Crimea he'll shut the war down and come  back for the rest of Ukraine later.

[Parliament 14138]

4 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

https://denikn.cz/minuta/847917/?ref=pop&rtm_source=web&rtm_medium=article&rtm_campaign=share_button&rtm_variant=copy_url&rtm_content=8064ddd4-6b6f-431a-950a-2cc38682e173
 

Hahah, Orban pissing everyone off.

”Hungary will cancel the planned V4 defense minister meeting.  The decision comes after Czech minister Cernochova and Polish minister Blasczaka decided not to participate due to Hungary’s approach to Russia. The meeting was to take place tomorrow.” 

Why is Hungary trying so hard to be cozy with Russia? 

[956 Worldwide 34444]

4 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Why is Hungary trying so hard to be cozy with Russia? 

There’s tons of Russian (and Chinese) money and dark influence sloshing around Fidesz and connected business class. Orban got in bed with Russia and China because they build in corruption as part of their bids.  Orban likes dealing with them as a backstop for when the EU loses its patience with rule of laws and corruption, and frames the Russia and China funds as more respectful of sovereignty. 

[Bateshorn 9905]

8 hours ago, F250 said:

This sounds like Skynet.

I work in Big Tech and have seen a number of AI demonstrations from some start ups and a couple of times I looked like this when observing AI at work...

Another part of my org works in the sci/tech space and the ability of AI to crawl bulk information and find new connections is both extremely impressive and more than a bit skin crawling.

 

[Shady Ray 1633]

Munich central train station about an hour ago. Sat there sipping a beer waiting for my train for about an hour and probably saw 500 come through across 3 trains.

Mainly women, children and a lotttt of elderly. Can’t imagine what they are going through.

[gmr548 16517]

Why is Hungary trying so hard to be cozy with Russia? 

Are you familiar with Orban and the state of democracy in Hungary? The only logical explanation for them remaining in the EU/NATO at this point is a “keep you enemies closer” strategy in order to prevent them just becoming a Russian and/or Chinese puppet in the middle of Europe.

[Hook'Em0608 96]

8 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

Are you familiar with Orban and the state of democracy in Hungary? The only logical explanation for them remaining in the EU/NATO at this point is a “keep you enemies closer” strategy in order to prevent them just becoming a Russian and/or Chinese puppet in the middle of Europe.

I’ll never forget when my first unit deployed to Iraq they wouldn’t let us off the plane in Budapest because they were hostile to American soldiers apparently. After flying that long flight we sat there on the plane over 2 hours before taking off for Kuwait. In all my back and forth travels after that, that was the only time that happened. I’ve always wondered if that was true or just something they made up. Sounded made up at the time, but maybe not.

 

I was so pissed because we carried half our gear and weapons on that plane and were sandwiched like sardines. We just wanted to breath for a bit. They were just chartered commercial flights so it was super cramped. Fuck Budapest…

[Enchubben 5509]

9 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

He should have been able to put it into the engine area or definitely the tracks.  Then somebody else tosses a Molotov cocktail on the deck and sit back and wait for the Russian crew members to come out.

Sticky bomb. Didn’t you read the field manual? Take a standard issue GI sock, put in a stick of Semtex, rig up with a fuse, rub it in axle grease and you’re good to go. 

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3868]

1 hour ago, Hefeweizen said:

And fucking Macron, he just doesn't get it.  He keeps trying to negotiate when France has no leverage or standing at all.  He's been diminished a lot by this crisis.  So impressed with Eastern Europe and the Baltics.  So disappointed in the rest of Europe right now (excepting NATO) - the one thing they can do to redeem this is take in refugees.

 

And I think one of the big reasons casualties are dropping is a change from trying to take territory to consolidation.  If Putin can hold the land bridge to Crimea he'll shut the war down and come  back for the rest of Ukraine later.

Every time Macron talks to Putin he gives Putin power.

Edited March 29, 2022 by ShaggyBevo RIP