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Eastwood

By Eastwood
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AUS-97HORN
AUS-97HORN

For the love of Christ woman,  stop posting the same fucking thing every 20 mins just to make your neurotic self feel better.     Bring something useful to the thread other than your inane babbli

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InkaUtexas
InkaUtexas

I volunteered today. Log/Admin role to replace people for 30-60 days. The operation is in the west, or should the Orcs win will be pulled back behind the NATO wall. Either way the humanitarian effort

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jdhorn92

jdhorn92 1578

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41 minutes ago, Sbbruin said:

Yeah, I know it's Bill O'Reilly, but his historical series on a whole host of people/subjects are really well done.  This is a good one I recommend.

spacer.png

Halfway through it right now, its a great read.  Nearly all of what is happening right now can be tied back to the very end of WWII.  Patton was absolutely correct in his disdain and thought about who the Russians were.  A Godless country. Not sure how accurate, but the story about Stahlin's step daughter and her Christmas experience at the UK embassy in Moscow was riveting.  Stahlin was lowest form of human being and Putin is Stahlin reincarnate.  Stahlin was so jealous of his step daughter's love interest (a Ukranian) that he sent him to a labor camp to die in Siberia. We never should have let the Russians in to Berlin first, Patton was right, but he didnt play well with others and his hubris got the best of him, but it is also what made him the best of us.

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The Dog

The Dog 44714

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Posted

Good interview here:

tl;dw version:

Don't expect any kind of military coup against Putin, nor any type of movement against him politically. He's eliminated all political opposition. 

That said, many in the government are unhappy with Putin and blame him for this war. 

He says in the end that Putin won't survive this, but I don't quite see how he gets there while still saying how hard it would be to remove him. 

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Mother mopar

Mother mopar 3377

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A C5 can carry two M1s, C17 can carry one. We definitely had some assets in theater like atom said earlier, but it wouldn’t be terribly hard for us to move that hardware in a week. We have 50ish C5s and 200+ C17s. Air Mobility Command doesn’t fuck around. 
Agree, once you get Transcom and AMC in sync lookout. We can definitely move some iron when needed (I'm a prior C-17 mechanic). Add in the fact that the C5M is much more reliable than its predecessors and you have a recipe for success.
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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 106430

Posted
Posted (edited)

 

 

Quoted this tweet for emphasis.  I think that's exactly what's happening.  Russia is altering its plan late in the game to what it should have been all along (I mean, presuming that they were going to take military action).  That is -- concentrate all of your power on expanding your footprint in the east.  Capture territory to link Donbas and Crimea.  Expand the eastern "autonomous regions" as much as you can to create buffer.  Then dig in and hold your gains.

The western prong of the attack towards Kyiv was pure hubris.  It only makes sense if you thought that Ukraine was going to fold and roll out the red carpet as you took over their entire country.  It was an epic mistake.

Which they have a fair chance of doing, even though they are doing so through a pivot late in the game.  Send those forces that were up north back around to fill out the forces in the east, then resume your push, especially as the mud dries out.

Which is why the Ukrainian strategy needs to be one of relentless attacks, bleeding the Russian machine dry.

Peace isn't coming anytime soon.  There's a lot of fighting left to be done.

Edited by Brisketexan
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Mother mopar

Mother mopar 3377

Posted
Posted
Michael McFaul Retweeted             XNFUztL2_normal.jpg   OSINTdefender   @sentdefender · 12h   A U.S Air Force F-15E Strike Eagle “CW12” that took off from Łódź appears to be approaching the Polish-Ukrainian Border, I have a feeling this is definitely a Signal to Russia.     FO_TizqXEAITUhp?format=jpg&name=900x900   149   625   2,771     Show this thread https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1508656998983868418?s=20&t=Ntoo4BG9-S7o6LXfpBAdTQ
He isn't flying alone .
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Bevo

Bevo 13803

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4 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

 

 

Quoted this tweet for emphasis.  I think that's exactly what's happening.  Russia is altering its plan late in the game to what it should have been all along (I mean, presuming that they were going to take military action).  That is -- concentrate all of your power on expanding your footprint in the east.  Capture territory to link Donbas and Crimea.  Expand the eastern "autonomous regions" as much as you can to create buffer.  Then dig in and hold your gains.

The western prong of the attack towards Kyiv was pure hubris.  It only makes sense if you thought that Ukraine was going to fold and roll out the red carpet as you took over their entire country.  It was an epic mistake.

Which they have a fair chance of doing, even though they are doing so through a pivot late in the game.  Send those forces that were up north back around to fill out the forces in the east, then resume your push, especially as the mud dries out.

Which is why the Ukrainian strategy needs to be one of relentless attacks, bleeding the Russian machine dry.

Peace isn't coming anytime soon.  There's a lot of fighting left to be done.

Russia is going to continue to totally destroy Donbas using whatever nasty weapons it has at its disposal. Ukraine will try to attack on the Western flank but I'm not sure how successful it can be with consolidated Russian forces. Europe will want to end the war because of the stalled economy in Western Europe. Support for Ukraine will flounder. And Europe will try to force Ukraine to negotiate. I think in the end, Ukraine will keep Odessa, Yuzhne as a buffer and all the territory on the sea south of there. But, I don't think it will be able to retake Crimea and Donbas. As a whole, though, the country will be stronger than ever when it is over. Meanwhile, I'm not sure Russia will recover and if it does, it will be set back decades.

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 106430

Posted
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1 minute ago, Bevo said:

Russia is going to continue to totally destroy Donbas using whatever nasty weapons it has at its disposal. Ukraine will try to attack on the Western flank but I'm not sure how successful it can be with consolidated Russian forces. Europe will want to end the war because of the stalled economy in Western Europe. Support for Ukraine will flounder. And Europe will try to force Ukraine to negotiate. I think in the end, Ukraine will keep Odessa, Yuzhne as a buffer and all the territory on the sea south of there. But, I don't think it will be able to retake Crimea and Donbas. As a whole, though, the country will be stronger than ever when it is over. Meanwhile, I'm not sure Russia will recover and if it does, it will be set back decades.

I think that the ultimate outcome will likely be a reasonable approximation of your scenario.  I'd like to hope for more, but I long ago learned that hope is just shit, bullshit, and fucking bullshit.

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TexasEd

TexasEd 8241

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Putin is trapped by the incompetence of his conventional military and over playing his hand.  The west called his bluff and he is withdrawing troops.  The stated goal is to consolidate positions but what if that is just another lie?

I'm concerned this is to get Russian forces out of the way of the escalation to tactical nukes.

This is our concern, Dude. on Make a GIF

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Schulz2.0

Schulz2.0 29221

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, texastough said:

Achinsk is in the middle of Russia, thousands of miles from Ukraine. How would Ukraine accomplish that with missiles?

Rob Lee was speculating earlier in a string of tweets that it might be an accident or lax safety from the Russians. He showed examples of other ammunition depots on fire/exploding in previous years. The last tweet is then the Ukrainian journalists saying it was a Ukrainian strike.

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BabaYaga

BabaYaga 15513

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, TexasEd said:

Some countries are buying them to pay for their oil shipments and Russia is propping it up as much as possible.

I think a ton of countries will line up to fill their pockets with cheap oil and cut their energy costs for the next decade in doing so.  This, along with EU dependency gives Russia a little wiggle room...especially with OPEC standing firm on their output stance and Saudi and the UAE seem uninterested in sanction concerns

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CHIEF

CHIEF 5190

Posted
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14 minutes ago, Sbbruin said:

Which is why the Russians are "negotiating" right now.  Buy the time to redeploy under the guise of a cease-fire, when they know they'll have their asses hanging out.  Don't let 'em.

Sounds like a good time for some Ukraine pilots to go pick up some Polish MIGs. I mean what's good for the goose, is good for the gander? Right?

CHIEF

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 106430

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, BabaYaga said:

Word salad

 

A valid concern.  Of course you never believe a word Russia says, both because it's Russia and because it's a war, where deception is the greatest weapon.  So, watch what they do, not what they say.

Repositioning for a different approach to attacks is certainly a possibility.  The loud explosions being heard in the city tonight may be consistent with this possibility.

36 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

Interdasting if true

 

And, while tempting.....watch for the trap.  Sure, at this point, the safe bet is that the Russians are actually retreating to avoid further shitstorm, but you can't eliminate the possibility that it's a move intended to draw the UAF out into the open, and to try to take out a shitload of their assets.  Always leave some room for the worst-case scenario and a trap, and proceed with appropriate caution.

36 minutes ago, Hook1997 said:

How in the hell is the Ruble almost back to it’s pre war price?  That makes no sense. 

Yeah....I'm not getting that either.

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 106430

Posted
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8 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-russias-central-bank-engineered-the-rubles-rebound-11648458200

How Russia’s Central Bank Engineered the Ruble’s Rebound
By limiting selling and forcing buying, Russia has manufactured demand for its battered currency

By Caitlin Ostroff
March 28, 2022 5:30 am ET

 

 

 

I can't get past the paywall -- my question is, while I can see how that would give it a bounce, is it sustainable?

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Hefeweizen

Hefeweizen 5412

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Who gives a shit about the ruble, honestly?  They are trying anything to launder clean dollars through energy purchases to banks that are not sanctioned.  
 

We’re entering a dangerous phase now where Russia will probably look like they were beaten back but will not cede any of their gains.  It would be a mistake for anyone to fall for a false peace  right now, because it will not last past Russia repositioning and getting ready to finish this.  

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Chad Fuck

Chad Fuck 18070

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Who gives a shit about the ruble, honestly?  They are trying anything to launder clean dollars through energy purchases to banks that are not sanctioned.  
 
We’re entering a dangerous phase now where Russia will probably look like they were beaten back but will not cede any of their gains.  It would be a mistake for anyone to fall for a false peace  right now, because it will not last past Russia repositioning and getting ready to finish this.  

Hefe is bringing the right amount of realistic pessimism to this thread. Well done. Surly kudos.
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TexasEd

TexasEd 8241

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More on the PsyOps piece of this war.  Ukrainians have a database of Russian and Belarussin soldiers phones and are messaging them not to come to Ukraine.

https://newlinesmag.com/reportage/inside-ukraines-psyops-on-russian-and-belarusian-soldiers/

Quote

Ukrainian messenger (UM): “I am calling Sergey Marchuk. Are you Sergey?”
Belarus soldier (BS): “Yes.”
UM: “Listen, we have information that you are located on the border and preparing to enter and fight. Is it so?”
BS: “It is possible.”
UM: “Are you there now? You are military? Or did I dial the wrong number?”
BS: “Yes.”
UM: “You are military, yeah? Ok, I understand. You are planning to invade Ukraine. Keep in mind that all of you will be killed there. Do you know how many Russians have already died here?”
BS: “I understand you.”
UM: “Look, I’m calling to tell you not to come here [invade], not to make a mistake, because here you will for sure … ”
BS: “How could you reach me? How did you get the information?”
UM: “Look, we know each of you. We have a database of your soldiers. We have telephone numbers, names, surnames, dates of birth — we know everything about you, you get it? We don’t want Belarus to fight with Ukraine. If you go forward, you will all die here. We are waiting for you. Is it clear? Personally, I have tons of friends, relatives in Belarus, and I don’t want us to fight with Belarusians. Therefore make the right decision, don’t go to Ukraine because you will die!”

 

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 90476

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, TexasEd said:

Putin is trapped by the incompetence of his conventional military and over playing his hand.  The west called his bluff and he is withdrawing troops.  The stated goal is to consolidate positions but what if that is just another lie?

I'm concerned this is to get Russian forces out of the way of the escalation to tactical nukes.

This is our concern, Dude. on Make a GIF

Russia won't drop nukes in Ukraine.  China would cut them off, as would most of the other countries still propping them up, and I'd say you'd see a full-on isolation (we aren't there yet).  And Russia would be completely cut off for generations from Europe.  And there's a decent chance NATO would fuck up a bunch of Russian stuff in Ukraine.

Russia can't rebuild large parts its military without all kinds of parts/materials that have to be imported.  Hell, they are struggling now with manufacturing, just with the embargoes/etc. already in place.  Full-on isolation would destroy their military-industrial complex.  They aren't making basic circuit boards, let alone the more complex stuff that is needed.

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 90476

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, BabaYaga said:

MOAR

 

This is one of the units that Rob Lee and the OSINT folks have been talking about, in terms of specific tank models belonging to that unit are turning up destroyed across their area of deployment.  From the destroyed armor they've tracked and tied to the 4th Guards, it's more of a brigade or some battalions.

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RDCanecutter

RDCanecutter 26811

Posted
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6 minutes ago, TexasEd said:

More on the PsyOps piece of this war.  Ukrainians have a database of Russian and Belarussin soldiers phones and are messaging them not to come to Ukraine.

https://newlinesmag.com/reportage/inside-ukraines-psyops-on-russian-and-belarusian-soldiers/

 

 

Hello yes.jpeg

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