Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[RDCanecutter 26,811]

Those Russian units may be pulling back from Kiev, but they aren't going to pull some brilliant redeployment and attack somewhere else. Right now all they could be good for is rocking back and forth in the corner. I give it a good year before they're properly refitted, retrained, and topped up with fresh replacements.

Then I remember this is Russia. So yeah, they probably will get thrown right back into the fight somewhere else.

[Brisketexan 106,430]

Just now, RDCanecutter said:

Those Russian units may be pulling back from Kiev, but they aren't going to pull some brilliant redeployment and attack somewhere else. Right now all they could be good for is rocking back and forth in the corner. I give it a good year before they're properly refitted, retrained, and topped up with fresh replacements.

Then I remember this is Russia. So yeah, they probably will get thrown right back into the fight somewhere else.

This.  Meat to the grinder.  The Russian strategy appears to be not much more complex of "we have more meat than you have grinders."

Cool, cool......

[cactusflinthead 27,626]

 

[utee94 16,051]

35 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Russia won't drop nukes in Ukraine.  China would cut them off, as would most of the other countries still propping them up, and I'd say you'd see a full-on isolation (we aren't there yet).  And Russia would be completely cut off for generations from Europe.  And there's a decent chance NATO would fuck up a bunch of Russian stuff in Ukraine.

Russia can't rebuild large parts its military without all kinds of parts/materials that have to be imported.  Hell, they are struggling now with manufacturing, just with the embargoes/etc. already in place.  Full-on isolation would destroy their military-industrial complex.  They aren't making basic circuit boards, let alone the more complex stuff that is needed.

Absolutely.  The Soviet style command economy barely worked for the weapons technology of the 70s and 80s.  Reverting to a command economy now, means the end of their capability for war, other than nukes.  And if they use nukes-- any nukes-- they're all immediately dead anyway.

 

[Parliament 14,534]

1 hour ago, MillerEP said:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-russias-central-bank-engineered-the-rubles-rebound-11648458200

How Russia’s Central Bank Engineered the Ruble’s Rebound
By limiting selling and forcing buying, Russia has manufactured demand for its battered currency

By Caitlin Ostroff
March 28, 2022 5:30 am ET

 

 

 

Will it stay up long enough for me to sell my longs?

[cactusflinthead 27,626]

For some reason, I have never met in our units one of those athletic gymbros with Punisher tattoos, who drives F150/ rubicon/tundra truck and whose instagram is covered with likes from girls lured by masculinity and militarism.

But this type is almost always there - The Old Guy

[via SlikilikrikBkrt twitter

[Brisketexan 106,430]

 

Being friends with some Norwegians, including some members of the Norwegian military, there is a 200% chance that this sign was put up because there was a rash of Norgies pissing towards Russia.

Our sweet and lovely exchange student ended up serving in the Norwegian military, working base security.  When I asked her what she actually did on a daily basis, she wouldn't give me details.  I said, okay, give me the big picture, what do you do, do you sit in a guard booth. "No."  So what do you do?  She smiles -- "I hunt Russians."

When you hear that from a gal who functionally looks like this....you know the Russians are fucked.

 

Also, before she went back home, I taught her to shoot.  She, ummm, knows how to shoot REALLY well now.  As do many of her friends.

[pops 7,104]

4 hours ago, Mother mopar said:

8 hours ago, TXSG8R said:

A C5 can carry two M1s, C17 can carry one. We definitely had some assets in theater like atom said earlier, but it wouldn’t be terribly hard for us to move that hardware in a week. We have 50ish C5s and 200+ C17s. Air Mobility Command doesn’t fuck around. 

Agree, once you get Transcom and AMC in sync lookout. We can definitely move some iron when needed (I'm a prior C-17 mechanic). Add in the fact that the C5M is much more reliable than its predecessors and you have a recipe for success.

Csb/ There were two c17s up here doing touch and goes at a little airport a week or 2 ago. My house was right under their banking pattern as they circled for approach. I just stood outside and watched them for like 30 minutes. I'm terrible at judging altitude but had to be under 1000 feet. Unficking real to see them that low and that slow. Doesn't seem possible. /csb

[Deej 77,612]

30 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

 

Being friends with some Norwegians, including some members of the Norwegian military, there is a 200% chance that this sign was put up because there was a rash of Norgies pissing towards Russia.

Our sweet and lovely exchange student ended up serving in the Norwegian military, working base security.  When I asked her what she actually did on a daily basis, she wouldn't give me details.  I said, okay, give me the big picture, what do you do, do you sit in a guard booth. "No."  So what do you do?  She smiles -- "I hunt Russians."

When you hear that from a gal who functionally looks like this....you know the Russians are fucked.

 

Also, before she went back home, I taught her to shoot.  She, ummm, knows how to shoot REALLY well now.  As do many of her friends.

I hope Pete Campbell didn't live next door to you. 

[atomheartbevo 90,476]

All those death notices that have been reported by Rob Lee and the OSINT people, that are posted on Russian social media and news/government sites.

They probably won't be around much longer.

 

Edited March 30, 2022 by atomheartbevo

[atomheartbevo 90,476]

BBC has been putting together information on losses, units, etc. as well, and there are several threads to follow

20% of verified kills are officers....

Majority of confirmed losses are airborne units.

Reports of losses can be skewed by region - some areas give a shit about their residents who go off and die, some don't.

 

[atomheartbevo 90,476]

Whole thread is worth a read, but not going to embed all of it

https://twitter.com/oivshina/status/1508478951995420675

 

[atomheartbevo 90,476]

Another Lt. Colonel killed.  And btw, according to the BBC reports, a lot of families are told their soldiers were killed but they haven't received the bodies yet, and to just go ahead and hold the funeral and they'll get the bodies later.

 

[atomheartbevo 90,476]

And twins, senior sergeants under contract and therefore volunteers.

And the comments are...solid for those of us who are men (and women) over the age of 40.

 

[cactusflinthead 27,626]

12 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Whole thread is worth a read, but not going to embed all of it

https://twitter.com/oivshina/status/1508478951995420675

 

This one stands out.

My bag of fucks to give about the Russians is getting empty.

[atomheartbevo 90,476]

3 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

My bag of fucks to give about the Russians is getting empty.

Yep, and I like that the families are being told to shut up about the deaths, and don't make a big deal out of them.  And the ones without bodies may eventually get them.  Or not.

For all those families angry at the Ukrainians, maybe they should be wondering why the Russian government is telling them to STFU.

[Scheiss Meister 8,438]

13 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

My bag of fucks to give about the Russians is getting empty.

I am a child of the Cold War.  I was built and trained to kill Russians.  I have never had a fuck to give for them.  Any of them.  Fuck 'em all.

[TXSG8R 3,362]

1 hour ago, pops said:

Csb/ There were two c17s up here doing touch and goes at a little airport a week or 2 ago. My house was right under their banking pattern as they circled for approach. I just stood outside and watched them for like 30 minutes. I'm terrible at judging altitude but had to be under 1000 feet. Unficking real to see them that low and that slow. Doesn't seem possible. /csb

Big planes seem like they are hovering, it really fucks with your mind. C5s do touch and goes at west Fort a lot. Same thing crosses my mind. 

[Clintonaldo 2,605]

This made me laugh. Fuck Russia




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Deej 77,612]

36 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

This one stands out.

My bag of fucks to give about the Russians is getting empty.

I cant judge until I examine their OnlyFans accounts. 

[InkaUtexas 26,775]

It is Tuesday night and Putin still sux. 

All over the world I hope people feel the same way. Gonna go open a beer and toast the Ukrainian Army. 

[cactusflinthead 27,626]

46 minutes ago, Scheiss Meister said:

I am a child of the Cold War.  I was built and trained to kill Russians.  I have never had a fuck to give for them.  Any of them.  Fuck 'em all.

Trying really hard to separate the shitheads from the decent people. It's getting harder every day. 

[MillerEP 30,803]

😆

 

[HOOKEM4 5,148]

So you mean to tell me they brought half a million people that hate them into their country? That seems incredibly unbelievably stupid or those people are at concentration camps being gassed en mass. Wtf.

[atomheartbevo 90,476]

2 minutes ago, HOOKEM4 said:

So you mean to tell me they brought half a million people that hate them into their country? That seems incredibly unbelievably stupid or those people are at concentration camps being gassed en mass. Wtf.

Deport a few hundred thousand people from an area, hold a quick referendum with the remaining separatists, who then vote to support Russia, then move the few hundred thousand Ukrainians back.  Russia technically held a vote of the residents (who were there).

[HOOKEM4 5,148]

Just now, atomheartbevo said:

Deport a few hundred thousand people from an area, hold a quick referendum with the remaining separatists, who then vote to support Russia, then move the few hundred thousand Ukrainians back.  Russia technically held a vote of the residents (who were there).

I cant fathom the logistics of moving that many people let alone believe the orcs could pull it off. 

[Guest Lobo]

I would think a half million people being involuntarily moved from one country to another would show up on satellite imagery.  And such imagery would be a pretty powerful visual narrative for the rest of Europe.  And even push the content in Russia somehow.  

I guess the Russians are just saving these people from Nazis back home?  How is this shit possible right now?  I know stupid is the new thing, but a half million people being relocated that quickly?  Even the stupid people I know would look at that video clip and be like, "Yeah, that doesn't look right..." 

[Brisketexan 106,430]

I cant fathom the logistics of moving that many people let alone believe the orcs could pull it off. 

Do you even Nazi cattle cars, bro?

[FartingMonk 3,611]

This is probably a really unpopular opinion but I'm beginning to think we lured Vlad into doing this.  There is no fucking way the Russians really can be this bad.  They have literally failed at every level and US Intel has won at every level. We are not that good

[Parliament 14,534]

16 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Deport a few hundred thousand people from an area, hold a quick referendum with the remaining separatists, who then vote to support Russia, then move the few hundred thousand Ukrainians back.  Russia technically held a vote of the residents (who were there).

The czars did the same thing to the Volga Germans.  The people they leave behind are somewhat more compliant.

[Bateshorn 9,985]

3 hours ago, utee94 said:

Absolutely.  The Soviet style command economy barely worked for the weapons technology of the 70s and 80s.  Reverting to a command economy now, means the end of their capability for war, other than nukes.  And if they use nukes-- any nukes-- they're all immediately dead anyway.

 

It’s, in some ways, more about China, who is Putin’s life line. 
 

If Putin drops nukes in Ukraine, and the Chinese don’t immediately cut them off, or worse, bless it, then we can dead ass say it’s okay for us to use tactical nukes to defend the Taiwan straight. Say the quiet part out loud that the Chinese have been trying to bully/charm us into not saying for 5 decades.

It also makes Ukraine’s ag exports worthless, which beggars the question of why are you even doing this?

Edited March 30, 2022 by Bateshorn

[atomheartbevo 90,476]

19 minutes ago, FartingMonk said:

This is probably a really unpopular opinion but I'm beginning to think we lured Vlad into doing this.  There is no fucking way the Russians really can be this bad.  They have literally failed at every level and US Intel has won at every level. We are not that good

Our intel wasn't that solid.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/29/politics/tod-wolters-intelligence-gap-us-russia-ukraine/index.html

Quote

The top US general in Europe said Tuesday there "could be" a gap in US intelligence gathering that caused the US to overestimate Russia's capability and underestimate Ukraine'sdefensive abilities before Russia attacked Ukraine.

When Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine last month, US intelligence assessed that the country-wide assault could lead to Kyiv falling into Russian hands within days. But Russia's military has been bogged down around the capital as the war has entered its second month, beleaguered by sustainability and logistics problems, along with an unexpected stiff resistance from Ukrainian fighters.

Quote

Testifying at a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing Tuesday, US European Command chief Gen. Tod Wolters was asked by Sen. Roger Wicker, a Mississippi Republican, if there was an intelligence gap that caused the US to overestimate Russia's strength and underestimate the Ukrainian defenses.

"There could be," Wolters responded. "As we've always done in the past, when this crisis is over with, we will accomplish a comprehensive after-action review in all domains and in all departments and find out where our weak areas were and make sure we can find ways to improve, and this could be one of those areas."

Quote

While US intelligence was spot on in predicting Russia was planning to invade Ukraine -- which the Biden administration aggressively released to turn global sentiment against the Kremlin -- the intelligence community did not assess the poor performance of the Russian military.

Quote

At a Senate Intelligence Committee hearing earlier this month, Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines said that the US intelligence community assessed that Russian President Vladimir Putin was underestimating the likely resistance he would face from the Ukrainians ahead of the invasion."

"I think we did well there," she said. "We did not do as well in terms of predicting the military challenges that he has encountered with his own military."

Quote

Lt. Gen. Scott Berrier, the head of the Defense Intelligence Agency, said that US intelligence assessments before the invasion were based on a number of factors, including that the Ukrainians were "not as ready as I thought they should be."

"Therefore, I questioned their will to fight. That was a bad assessment on my part, because they have fought bravely and honorably and are doing the right thing," he said.

Quote

Asked by Arkansas GOP Sen. Tom Cotton about assessments on how long Kyiv would hold out or how long Ukraine could maintain its air defenses, Berrier said the intelligence community "made some assumptions about (Putin's) assumptions, which proved to be very, very flawed."

"His actual activity as he got into this fight turned his operation kind of on its head," Berrier said of Putin. "And what we've seen is a devolvement, if you will, of the operations that he has going on now."

 

[FartingMonk 3,611]

3 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Our intel wasn't that solid.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/29/politics/tod-wolters-intelligence-gap-us-russia-ukraine/index.html

 

That's what they say.  But is it what they actually knew

[Neonmoon 38,130]

 

[HOOKEM4 5,148]

9 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Our intel wasn't that solid.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/29/politics/tod-wolters-intelligence-gap-us-russia-ukraine/index.html

 

If you don't realize this was strategic...well.. see FartingMonks post.

[The Dog 44,714]

I've bookmarked this at the point where he goes apeshit about the Russians' complete lack of encryption and opsec. It's a fun listen (this is another Aussie). Goes from 45:00 to about 47:00 or so.

The overall video is good but when he goes bonkers asking "HOW CAN YOU BE THIS BAD" is great.

[Guest Lobo]

Wait, is using burner phones for sensitive conversations pertaining to military ops not a good idea?  I gotta let my guy at the Quik-Mart know.

[cactusflinthead 27,626]

18 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Our intel wasn't that solid.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/29/politics/tod-wolters-intelligence-gap-us-russia-ukraine/index.html

 

I wonder if our over estimation of Russia was an extension of the dodge they were running. That vast fleet of reserve equipment was a shell. It was so hollow the CO put a bullet in his head when they showed up to get the stuff. We vastly underestimated the level of corruption. It was probably unfathomable they would rip off all the optics and anything else worth selling. Hell, one tank didn't even have an engine. 

I mean we do some shady shit, but at least periodically we check the gear to make sure it actually fucking exists.

[clapclapclap 9,000]

3 hours ago, cactusflinthead said:

Location is legit, less than 5 miles south of the Barents Sea:

https://www.google.com/maps/@69.7245297,30.8871421,3a,59.2y,160.8h,74.84t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1sDsbhyVD-o2woI-AQwJmM4Q!2e0!7i16384!8i8192!5m1!1e4

Nice bus stop on the right?  There's only a few rural houses further north on that road that dead ends at a campsite on the sea.

North of the Arctic Circle and close to Kirkenes, where temps average 20/6 in Jan, 61/48 in July, records 91 and -43.  Only 18 inches of precipitation a year (less than Big Spring or San Angelo) and just 26 inches of snow (similar to Indianapolis).  Very cloudy all year long, bring your vitamin D.

 

Edited March 30, 2022 by clapclapclap

[dimyh 1,881]

On 3/28/2022 at 7:28 AM, Shady Ray said:

That is reallllly complicated at the moment in Germany....

...So, I guess to answer your question…it isn’t clear yet. Germans are gonna German, so the support isn’t nearly as high as elsewhere in Europe. My own personal impression is that the business and political communities are hunkered down trying to avoid negative PR just hoping this will blow over so they can recalibrate next steps.

Appreciate all the updates that you and Worldwide provide. I don't pretend to understand EU politics but y'all help me get an idea on how the general mood is with the populace. We know the will of the Ukrainians is strong...the bigger doubt is if the EU can stay united on sanctions and match that resolve. Putin miscalculated on the severity of the initial EU response but he's not wrong in that the weakest link still lies in Germany not wanting to give up their cheap gas.

 

Here is an article from the FAZ talking about the Ukrainian ambassador to Germany and some of his troubles trying to get them on board with the cause:

Spoiler

Andriy Melnyk knows that German attention is fickle. That's why he takes every opportunity to explain to them what's at stake "as long as someone still wants to see and hear me". Germans have gotten used to the ambassador broadcasting from a talk show to their living room night after night, always dressed as elegantly as he speaks. A German that you can envy him for, also because he finds words that are stronger than ours. “Small carat” is such a word.
For example, the Bundestag's reaction to the Ukrainian President's speech last week is small-scale.
Andriy Melnyk sits there in the grandstand and kneads his hands. "We have said again and again that Nord Stream is a preparation for war," says Zelensky from the screen. Olaf Scholz sits small in his swivel chair and looks up at him. Melnyk blinks behind his glasses.

The "we" that Selensky speaks of means above all him, the Ukrainian ambassador in Berlin. He has repeatedly criticized the construction of the pipeline, and when he felt it was necessary, so did Frank-Walter Steinmeier. He didn't feel heard. When Melnyk knocked at the Foreign Ministry or the Chancellery, they didn't even open the door. There has been a kind of house ban for Melnyk there for years.
"Dear Chancellor Scholz," says Selensky with dark circles under his eyes. "Give Germany the leadership role it deserves." Melnyk can only see the back of the Chancellor's head, surrounded by black headphones through which the interpreter's voice is speaking. Then the screen goes black, Scholz is silent and Selensky's appeal falls on the agenda.

Melnyk does not delete his tweets

Melnyk didn't want it to happen like this. Two days earlier, he asked Olaf Scholz to react to the speech and make a government statement. The SPD found that presumptuous. State Secretary Sören Bartol wrote on Twitter that he "now finds this ambassador unbearable". He put the word "ambassador" in quotation marks.
Melnyk doesn't know Bartol, but he can understand him. "He was just reflecting the mood in the faction," says Melnyk, and it sounds as if he feels sorry for Bartol. Melnyk knows that many in the SPD think like Bartol, but don't say it. Melnyk prefer those who speak their minds.
"What can you do when you're angry? Send a nasty tweet.” He often feels the same way. “You are a real Ar. . .” he writes, for example, to a politics professor who calls on Ukraine to capitulate. "Shut your left mouth," he writes to left-wing MP Fabio de Masi, who wants to discuss Nazis in the Ukrainian army. Unlike Bartol, Melnyk does not delete his tweets.
Downstairs in the plenary hall, the Vice President of the Bundestag congratulates two members of parliament on their sixtieth birthdays. You've only experienced peace and freedom for six decades, and now it's supposed to be about compulsory vaccination, without transition, without discussion. Melnyk gets up, he has no more business here. In the morning his friend's house in Kyiv was bombed. "He recently painstakingly renovated the apartment."

Direct line from Stalin's hunger terror to Putin's attack

He strives for the exit, the cameras strive after him. The Green veteran Marieluise Beck attaches herself to him. The two have a complicated relationship. Beck is one of those foreign policymakers who have always viewed Russia with a clear perspective. Your friendship with Ukraine is unshakable. But the one about Andriy Melnyk got deep cracks two years ago. At that time it was about the Holodomor, Stalin's hunger terror in the Ukraine. Melnyk wanted the Bundestag to recognize the Holodomor as genocide, but Beck thought that was unwise. For Beck it was a strategic question, for Melnyk it is an existential one. The episode shows the dimensions in which Melnyk thinks. For him there is a direct line from Stalin's starvation terror to Putin's attack.

Melnyk wants to go downstairs to the cafeteria, where the Polish Deputy Foreign Minister is already waiting. Two Hessian members of the CDU intercept him at the elevator. "You have such a courageous president," says Michael Brandt. It is a shame that the chancellor is silent. There was a shitstorm in the constituency, says Stefan Heck. He shares it with State Secretary Bartol. Melnyk nods politely and puts the business cards in his pocket.

The entourage around Melnyk lurches through the halls of the Reichstag building. A young parliamentarian wants a selfie with the ambassador. "That was really embarrassing, especially in the plenum," he whispers. Melnyk wants to say something, but the next one is already in front of his face. Everyone wants to send him words of solidarity, at least when there is no no-fly zone.

Svitlana Melnyk, the wife, looks on in silence. You could also say warm words to her, but no one seems to know who the lady with the long blonde hair is. She can study the inscriptions on the historic walls undisturbed. "It says Kyiv," she exclaims softly. "And there," she hurries a few steps further, "Donbass!" These are the Cyrillic inscriptions of young Ukrainian soldiers who defeated Hitler here with the Red Army. "This is our story, in the heart of Berlin," says Switlana Melnyk. It sounds bitter. Because the Germans regularly forget that not only Russians, but also millions of Ukrainians were murdered by the Wehrmacht.

“He just forwards all my emails”

As late as February 2021, Steinmeier had advertised Nord Stream 2 as one of the last "bridges" to Russia, with a view to the "eventful history with Russia". He recalled the Soviet victims of the German war and said: "This does not justify any misconduct in Russian politics today, but we must not lose sight of the bigger picture."

For Andriy Melnyk it sounded as if the suffering of Ukrainians and Belarusians was irrelevant. He was so outraged that a few months later he declined the Federal President's invitation to an exhibition on Soviet prisoners of war - in the German-Russian Museum in Karlshorst. An affront that has not been forgotten in Berlin.

TV crews have positioned themselves in front of the entrance to the plenary hall. Well lit, Friedrich Merz accuses the government. Norbert Röttgen speaks of the "most undignified moment" in his time as a member of parliament.

When Melnyk comes out of the canteen, the moderators pounce on him too. His wife watches as her husband politely addresses his demands to the cameras for the hundredth, thousandth time. The way the parliamentarians nod to each other, importantly grab their ties. How Christian Lindner comes through the glass door, takes a look at Melnyk and quickly turns again. How Rolf Mützenich passed the ambassador without a word. "He just forwards all my emails," says Melnyk.

He is sorry if he hurts others

There is time at the embassy to sort the encounters. Melnyk asks for a green leather sofa. He is tired. He only sleeps a few hours a night. "Maybe I have to go to the doctor," he says, having his levels checked. "Do you know one?"

There is a feeling that compels him to get up every morning. It's the feeling that he can still achieve something here in Berlin. First thing in the morning he inquires about his relatives, makes sure that Kyiv is still standing, then he asks himself: "Who could I convince today?" Every day he meets parliamentarians, shows up at the Defense Ministry, repeats his inquiries at the Foreign Office. In the evening he sends a text message to Selensky or to the foreign minister. Sometimes he doesn't know what to write. "Did this day bring anything good for my homeland?" he then asks himself. "Or was I just pissing off new politicians again?"

It's not like he enjoys it. He is sorry if he hurts others. "I'm just a human being, not a Melnykomat," he says and shrugs his shoulders. "Or a Mülleromat," he adds, because Melnyk's name is Müller, and Melnyk never stops translating his world to the Germans.

When Melnyk talks about German politicians, he doesn't differentiate between parties. He distinguishes between those who are serious about Ukraine and those who only pretend to be.

Habeck was "devastated"

He counts Robert Habeck among the first. Melnyk could blame the energy minister for not imposing a gas embargo. But he doesn't. "He has to represent this position, even though it is morally difficult to maintain," says Melnyk. He is convinced that Habeck hurts. He saw him with Lanz and Anne Will, "he almost cried". And, more importantly, he saw him on the day that changed everything.

In the morning Putin had invaded Ukraine, in the afternoon Robert Habeck sat with him on the green leather sofa and was "devastated". Bitter and ashamed because he allowed himself to be crushed by his party when he demanded arms for Ukraine in the summer. It was a fundamentally different conversation from the one I had with Secretary of Defense Christine Lambrecht, who was primarily concerned about her public image. Or that with Finance Minister Lindner, who sat there with "such a polite smile" and talked as if the defeat of the Ukrainians had long been sealed. "You only have a few hours," he said. Supplying arms or excluding Russia from SWIFT is pointless. Instead, he wanted to look ahead to what Lindner thought was ahead: a Russian-occupied Ukraine with a puppet government. Melnyk says:

Melnyk also told the "Spiegel" about this conversation three weeks ago. Afterwards, "Lindner's people" complained to him. He already knows that. All the politicians who anger Melnyk send people to direct the anger. And the next time Melnyk asks for an appointment, they send people out to fend him off. Melnyk doesn't have people he can send up front to filter his emotions. He only has Frau Kononenko in the hall, and she also works late into the night.

"German politicians are very afraid of bad press," says Melnyk. "Diplomats should sit in their offices and be silent - but that doesn't work." Melnyk tried the classic route. He politely asked for an appointment, expressed his views, voiced criticism. It was of no use. So Melnyk started talking to journalists. Even if the Foreign Ministry didn't approve of it. The first complaint came in 2016. "And back then I was still a diplomat!" says Melnyk indignantly. Since he had not insulted anyone as an asshole.

 

[cactusflinthead 27,626]

2 minutes ago, clapclapclap said:

Location is legit, less than 5 miles south of the Barents Sea:

https://www.google.com/maps/@69.7245297,30.8871421,3a,59.2y,160.8h,74.84t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1sDsbhyVD-o2woI-AQwJmM4Q!2e0!7i16384!8i8192!5m1!1e4

Nice bus stop on the right?  There's only a few rural houses further north on that road that dead ends at a campsite on the sea.

North of the Arctic Circle and close to Kirkenes, where temps average 20/6 in Jan, 61/48 in July, records 91 and -43.  Only 18 inches of precipitation a year (less than Big Spring or San Angelo) and just 26 inches of snow (similar to Indianapolis).  Very cloudy all year long, bring your vitamin D.

 

Damn that's fucking dry. 18 inches is pretty fucking dusty.

[clapclapclap 9,000]

 

27 minutes ago, FartingMonk said:

That's what they say.  But is it what they actually knew

(cough, Afghanistan, cough)

[Rimbo 26,826]

1 hour ago, FartingMonk said:

This is probably a really unpopular opinion but I'm beginning to think we lured Vlad into doing this.  There is no fucking way the Russians really can be this bad.  They have literally failed at every level and US Intel has won at every level. We are not that good

Post less, FartingMonk.

[BearSchlong 8,209]

More on the PsyOps piece of this war.  Ukrainians have a database of Russian and Belarussin soldiers phones and are messaging them not to come to Ukraine.
https://newlinesmag.com/reportage/inside-ukraines-psyops-on-russian-and-belarusian-soldiers/

Ukrainian messenger (UM): “I am calling Sergey Marchuk. Are you Sergey?”
Belarus soldier (BS): “Yes.”
UM: “Listen, we have information that you are located on the border and preparing to enter and fight. Is it so?”
BS: “It is possible.”
UM: “Are you there now? You are military? Or did I dial the wrong number?”
BS: “Yes.”
UM: “You are military, yeah? Ok, I understand. You are planning to invade Ukraine. Keep in mind that all of you will be killed there. Do you know how many Russians have already died here?”
BS: “I understand you.”
UM: “Look, I’m calling to tell you not to come here [invade], not to make a mistake, because here you will for sure … ”
BS: “How could you reach me? How did you get the information?”
UM: “Look, we know each of you. We have a database of your soldiers. We have telephone numbers, names, surnames, dates of birth — we know everything about you, you get it? We don’t want Belarus to fight with Ukraine. If you go forward, you will all die here. We are waiting for you. Is it clear? Personally, I have tons of friends, relatives in Belarus, and I don’t want us to fight with Belarusians. Therefore make the right decision, don’t go to Ukraine because you will die!”

 
Russian hackers are doing similar things to US service spouses. My kid says our units have burners but they left their personal phones in a safe in North Carolina.

[atomheartbevo 90,476]

It got weird.

 

[gmr548 16,681]

This one stands out.
My bag of fucks to give about the Russians is getting empty.

It’s a hard line to walk. On the one hand, this is a mother who’s just lost her son. It’s certainly easy to get caught up in the heat of the moment. The thread also notes that she stated her belief that Russia has only conducted precision strikes on military installations and is responding to the threat of an imminent attack by Ukraine. That’s what she and everyone else in the country has been fed by state media, and there is no alternative outlet. She lives in a complete fabrication of reality, but it’s not really reasonable to expect her to have any other information. There’s a non trivial portion of the American public that is on Russia’s side because of brainwashing, and they basically get a pass for that, so I think I can cut the average Russian some slack on that front given they have essentially zero exposure to anything other than the Kremlin’s propaganda.

On the other hand, uh, yeah, her statement was absolute ludicrous and produces zero hope of any significant internal pressure on Putin to end the war; which will lead to thousands more dead and millions traumatically displaced and/or suffering. And that is just maddening.

[686 3,458]

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[fattyflattie 4,640]

4 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

That’s what she and everyone else in the country has been fed by state media, and there is no alternative outlet. She lives in a complete fabrication of reality, but it’s not really reasonable to expect her to have any other information. There’s a non trivial portion of the American public that is on Russia’s side because of brainwashing, and they basically get a pass for that, so I think I can cut the average Russian some slack on that front given they have essentially zero exposure to anything other than the Kremlin’s propaganda.

My Ukrainian co-worker said it’s astonishing the propaganda he saw while in Russia.  It’s so bad he has a bit of sympathy for their population at large (obv not Putin and his bullshit).  

[Da Fino 2,818]

Who gives a shit about the ruble, honestly?  They are trying anything to launder clean dollars through energy purchases to banks that are not sanctioned.  
 
We’re entering a dangerous phase now where Russia will probably look like they were beaten back but will not cede any of their gains.  It would be a mistake for anyone to fall for a false peace  right now, because it will not last past Russia repositioning and getting ready to finish this.  

Man I’ve been worried about this. I’m worried things are about to get messy and a lot of people have been overly optimistic about the current situation.

[MillerEP 30,803]