Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[TejanoAtUT 15]

14 minutes ago, Shady Ray said:

Sergei soiled himself.

There has been discussion and speculation as to Putin's actual power over the Russian oligarchs and the country at large. Is this video meant to be a choreographed demonstration for the Russian public of Putin's control over his government, or is it meant more as a message meant to get any remaining doubtful internal government/oligarch elements in line with him?

Western commentators and pundits have mentioned that Putin's speech from yesterday shows he came off as unhinged, at least in comparison to some of his previous remarks and actions. But is that really surprising to the experts that have been paying attention? I suppose what I'm really asking is, do Western governments believe Putin might have gone off the deep end for real?

[FartingMonk 3630]

39 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

I want to share this remarkable video clip of Putin taking a terrified looking Sergei Naryshkin, head of the SVR, across the coals. I referred to the exchange upthread but it’s worth watching.  Naryshkin stammers and tries to avoid saying directly “I support the recognition of independence…” Putin gets exasperated, tells him to “speak directly, Sergei”. Of note, in his televised meetings earlier with Lavrov and Shoigu, he spoke politely and made sure to use the name and patronymic formulation— as you would expect a dignified Russian leader to do in a “show debate.” 
 

This is more like “spit it out, Sergei!” Chiding a terrified student on his exams. 
 

 

That is the look of a man who has been admonished for weeks on end and has barely gotten any sleep.  Putin has probably been asking so Sergei do you think xxxx would do this.  Sergei says 100 percent and Putin goes just like 100 percent you said these guys are going to do that.  You've been wrong at every fucking turn.  

[956 Worldwide 35602]

12 minutes ago, TejanoAtUT said:

There has been discussion and speculation as to Putin's actual power over the Russian oligarchs and the country at large. Is this video meant to be a choreographed demonstration for the Russian public of Putin's control over his government, or is it meant more as a message meant to get any remaining doubtful internal government/oligarch elements in line with him?

Western commentators and pundits have mentioned that Putin's speech from yesterday shows he came off as unhinged, at least in comparison to some of his previous remarks and actions. But is that really surprising to the experts that have been paying attention? I suppose what I'm really asking is, do Western governments believe Putin might have gone off the deep end for real?

I don't think that Putin is unhinged or losing it, any more than any person in his position would begin to develop a (rational, to him) conspiratorial and dark view of the world.  He is also confined to an information bubble of sorts.

I don't believe very much in the theory of "Putin is going to lose his grip on power or suffer a big public protest" as he's been extremely effective at consolidating that power and at removing any potential alternative center of gravity before it is created.  By and large, most Russians still support Putin.  Nevertheless, he undoubtedly obsesses over things like potential coups and appears to believe that the United States is trying to destabilize his regime.  This particular show was not a demonstration of control over his government or to get people in line who had doubts.  He knows he has decided to do something extremely illegal that will provoke consequences, and that those might bring more consequences he cannot see yet.  He has effectively decapitated everyone in that room from trying to claim later that they were against the idea or that they didn't fully support him.  I don't think any of them will end up in the Hague-- but it does remove them from consideration as part of any opposition that might possibly emerge if this goes badly for Russia. 

[956 Worldwide 35602]

The Duma session to ratify the "Treaties of Friendship" is underway. There are joint sessions going on in Luhansk/Donetsk and the Luhansk "parliament" has called on Ukrainians to voluntarily leave the parts of LPR that are claimed beyond the line of contact.  Speaking at the committee, Lavrov says that Russia will guarantee the security of the new republics.  The draft treaty offers lots of wiggle room to allow Russia to intervene. Also regular updates of "Ukrainian saboteur" bomb blasts and attacks.  It seems this is tilting towards recognition of LPR/DPR beyond the currently held territory.  

[Shady Ray 1634]

This is going to create a really, really fucking precarious situation for Zelensky at home.

 

If he doesn't stand up militarily, he will feel incredible pressure from political opponents internally. As we discussed upthread in what now seems like years ago, Ukraine's domestic, pro-Western opposition leaders have by no means unified around him. If anything, they have only increased the political heat to demonstrate armed resistance through the military in case of this exact situation. And outside of the internal political calculations of their leadership, the Ukrainians have been understandably trying to build up a narrative of the population as a collective resistance force, fighting for the unity of Ukraine at home, so the public is primed for resistance. But it is hard to expect that type of dedication if you aren't willing to send in the military to fight, as well. So, if he doesn't react militarily here, he will lose massive amounts of support.

 

But if he does send in the military to the breakaways, he risks giving the Russians the pretext that they want to expand the battlefield far beyond the self-proclaimed borders of Luhansk and Donetsk, which Ukraine has no chance of winning. Despite all the chattering class speculation on the efficacy of Ukraine's military wrt to its state in 2014, they still would have no chance if the full force of Russian military power was exerted upon them. And that would extend the Ukrainian territorial losses far beyond just the areas that have been outside of Kiev's control for 7 years now. So that's a huge psychological risk to the country when all the dust settles.

 

In Putin's message last night, he had some parts that were clearly meant for the populations familiar with Soviet history/narratives - so basically the Ukrainians and Russians - about showing the Ukrainian government true "de-communization", which was accompanied by Putin's standard drivel about Ukraine being a product of Lenin blah blah. To me, in context of Ukrainian history, that was meant to essentially threaten the area east of the Dnieper.

 

Either way, Zelensky is in a tough spot and one can't help but feel for him. 

Edited February 22, 2022 by Shady Ray

[956 Worldwide 35602]

Zelenskyy will not send the Ukrainian military into the currently occupied territories, beyond the Donbas (in this message board asshole's opinion).  Firstly, Ukraine has actually played this crisis almost as good as possible with the West.  No serious person is arguing that Ukraine is being unreasonable or escalatory.  They have not given on inch of ground to "Ukraine skeptics" in Western Europe to dive frantically on the "pox on both their houses" justification to do nothing they so desperately want.  And it seems Putin wants them to do that very much indeed, given the amount of fake incidents getting ginned up.  Even looking back at Georgia 2008, Putin would love the thinnest of fig leaves to justify what he wants to do.  

Second-- there are still 150-180K Russian troops around the borders of Ukraine.  Most of them are nowhere close to Donbas. I do not think that Ukraine would move militarily on Russian "peacekeepers" even if that force wasn't there.  Seeing as it is-- it is absolutely unthinkable.  Ukraine is still very much at risk of a major, maximalist attack by Russian forces and cannot afford to open a major offensive into Donbas.   

[Shady Ray 1634]

2 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Zelenskyy will not send the Ukrainian military into the currently occupied territories, beyond the Donbas (in this message board asshole's opinion).  Firstly, Ukraine has actually played this crisis almost as good as possible with the West.  No serious person is arguing that Ukraine is being unreasonable or escalatory.  They have not given on inch of ground to "Ukraine skeptics" in Western Europe to dive frantically on the "pox on both their houses" justification to do nothing they so desperately want.  And it seems Putin wants them to do that very much indeed, given the amount of fake incidents getting ginned up.  Even looking back at Georgia 2008, Putin would love the thinnest of fig leaves to justify what he wants to do.  

Second-- there are still 150-180K Russian troops around the borders of Ukraine.  Most of them are nowhere close to Donbas. I do not think that Ukraine would move militarily on Russian "peacekeepers" even if that force wasn't there.  Seeing as it is-- it is absolutely unthinkable.  Ukraine is still very much at risk of a major, maximalist attack by Russian forces and cannot afford to open a major offensive into Donbas.   

For the record, I totally agree with you here.

 

The question is whether Petro Poroshenko will have the restrained perspective to refrain from rabble rousing at home over "the weak man Zelensky", which has been his primary attack line. He has waived his own willingness to fight in the Donbass in 2015 around as proof of his authenticity as "the real Russian fighter", and I imagine he will start attacking Zelensky on the grounds of "it was one thing to agree to a de-escalation of hostilities when it was rebel Ukrainians, but this weak Zelensky is just standing aside allowing a foreign army to set up shop. He's letting us be carved up without so much as a shot fired." Lot's of political hay to make here for a morally bankrupt man like Petro.

[956 Worldwide 35602]

7 minutes ago, Shady Ray said:

For the record, I totally agree with you here.

 

The question is whether Petro Poroshenko will have the restrained perspective to refrain from rabble rousing at home over "the weak man Zelensky", which has been his primary attack line. He has waived his own willingness to fight in the Donbass in 2015 around as proof of his authenticity as "the real Russian fighter", and I imagine he will start attacking Zelensky on the grounds of "it was one thing to agree to a de-escalation of hostilities when it was rebel Ukrainians, but this weak Zelensky is just standing aside allowing a foreign army to set up shop. He's letting us be carved up without so much as a shot fired." Lot's of political hay to make here for a morally bankrupt man like Petro.

We will see.  I think we might see that down the road but thus far I have not tracked any genuine "war" sentiment in Ukraine, which knows very well what they are facing. And of course, Zelensky can always lob back that Poroshenko didn't have these kind of balls back when the exact same thing happened in Crimea.  We're watching the famed "salami tactics" in action from Russia-- but I get the felling that those slices are going to get bigger and bigger.  Still and open question why Putin placed 75 percent of his army on the border with Ukraine.  He did not need to do that to recognize and rotate troops into Donbas. 

[Shady Ray 1634]

17 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

We will see.  I think we might see that down the road but thus far I have not tracked any genuine "war" sentiment in Ukraine, which knows very well what they are facing. And of course, Zelensky can always lob back that Poroshenko didn't have these kind of balls back when the exact same thing happened in Crimea.  We're watching the famed "salami tactics" in action from Russia-- but I get the felling that those slices are going to get bigger and bigger.  Still and open question why Putin placed 75 percent of his army on the border with Ukraine.  He did not need to do that to recognize and rotate troops into Donbas. 

Crimean annexation was under the Turchynov caretakership, but yeah, those salami slices are getting way bigger.

 

Scholz to speak in 20 minutes...worth noting that Friedrich Merz, opposition leader of the CDU, has come out this AM really hard calling for Germany to exercise harsh measures, which is a noteworthy step. He is the one that essentially took SWIFT off the table unilaterally within Germany by saying it would be like a nuclear bomb re German interests. 

 

We will see if that conviction is purely politics or means something. But his firm language this morning will put some pressure on Scholz for sure.

[956 Worldwide 35602]

The Duma has unanimously adopted Putin's decrees on friendship and in a clarifying statement the Russian foreign ministry says they recognize the "republics" in the "borders in which they de facto exert authority and jurisdiction." 

So stopping short of launching a war to capture Mariupol for now.  We will need to watch what happens in the information space to see if a causus belli is invented.  This may be some probing on Western responses. 

[956 Worldwide 35602]

Update:  And Dmitri Peskov is saying that the MFA is wrong and that they recognize the LPR/DPR "within the borders they set for themselves."

[FartingMonk 3630]

How much longer can Putin actually keep holding out without tipping his next move?  It has to costs in the 10s if not more millions of dollars a day to have all those dudes mobilized.  And I think he is growing increasingly frustrated by the US calling out his next move.  They go on TV and say you said we were going to invade Tuesday!  Did we invade Tuesday?  Then they just go and do it on Wednesday.

[FartingMonk 3630]

https://www.vox.com/2015/6/29/8845913/russia-war

 

Pretty old article but this is playing out exactly like the guy is saying

[956 Worldwide 35602]

Oh snap!  Olaf Scholz "lays down a monster" in the words of Teddy KGB and says Nord Stream 2 won't be certified  and he wants an assessment of how Germany's energy supplies can be secured because "the situation has fundamentally changed."

I will defer to @Shady Ray on internal German politics, but it seems this is a decent play.  You're doing this shit on your terms and showing leadership and I think the writing was on the wall.  At the current moment of crisis, it's tough to imagine the CDU teaming up with AfD to force snap elections on this issue so there is time to bounce back.  He will for sure take some heat internally, but to my mind at this point-- he is pulling the bandaid.  It will sting a bit, but better to get this over with. 

[Shady Ray 1634]

Absolutely stunned that he went this far. Currently stuck on calls for the next couple of hours but my phone has absolutely exploded over the last 10 minutes. I don't think anyone expected this.

[956 Worldwide 35602]

Important to note that though we talk about what NS2 means for Germany-- this is a huge cost to Putin as well.  This is probably the most significant blow Russia has taken since this all began back in 2014.  We're now in the position that Putin has to be considered the loser as things stand now-- the loss of NS2, the loss of leverage via Minsk, additional EU measures coming down the pike, and more U.S measures. All he has gotten is condemnation and the recognition of some territory he de facto controlled already. 

My hunch-- Scholz does not announce this because he thinks its going to stop Putin.  I think German leadership is convinced that there is far worse coming and they decided they could not afford to look as if they held back and waited till it was all over but the dying. 

[Hefeweizen 5467]

10 minutes ago, Shady Ray said:

Absolutely stunned that he went this far. Currently stuck on calls for the next couple of hours but my phone has absolutely exploded over the last 10 minutes. I don't think anyone expected this.

I felt this was going to happen.  The Germans didn't take Russia seriously until they did.   All my family over there (cousins, uncles, aunts, etc) are a cards on table type of people when you get to serious conversation; they now see Russia has been intending this all along and that Putin seriously thought NS2 was a hammer against Germany, not against him.

 

I don't think there is an off ramp here for the West.  It's up to Putin to figure out where he is stopping, because Ukraine is dead meat if he wants it, but it's poisoned and will probably lead to the fall of Russia if it is fully occupied.  It's too big to conquer and hold with even 150,000 troops.   You'd need half a million occupying troops to really hold the country.

 

China says, yes please!

[Hefeweizen 5467]

5 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Important to note that though we talk about what NS2 means for Germany-- this is a huge cost to Putin as well.  This is probably the most significant blow Russia has taken since this all began back in 2014.  We're now in the position that Putin has to be considered the loser as things stand now-- the loss of NS2, the loss of leverage via Minsk, additional EU measures coming down the pike, and more U.S measures. All he has gotten is condemnation and the recognition of some territory he de facto controlled already. 

My hunch-- Scholz does not announce this because he thinks its going to stop Putin.  I think German leadership is convinced that there is far worse coming and they decided they could not afford to look as if they held back and waited till it was all over but the dying. 

This for sure.  The Germans realized they misread the map and there isn't an offramp anymore.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13743]

Was it expected that NS2 was going to be certified during a Russian invasion of a neighboring country? Wouldn’t certification and pipeline activation give Russia more control of German decisions?

Regardless If certification is a political decision, then the non-certification can be reversed at a moments notice with no harm to Germans citizens.

It’s a different topic, but Germany becoming more dependent on Russia makes very little sense.

[52-80 19377]

5 hours ago, FartingMonk said:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna17094

So if the Ukrainian president does go to Poland and ends up getting killed does that draw Poland into a war?

it means just 1 thing:  winged hussars are coming back to play ball

 

 

 

[Shady Ray 1634]

10 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Was it expected that NS2 was going to be certified during a Russian invasion of a neighboring country? Wouldn’t certification and pipeline activation give Russia more control of German decisions?

Regardless If certification is a political decision, then the non-certification can be reversed at a moments notice with no harm to Germans citizens.

It’s a different topic, but Germany becoming more dependent on Russia makes very little sense.

There are already commentators saying, "yeah, we will see if this sticks once the winter comes back" (we have had a really mild one). I think his repeated caveat "for the time being" is perhaps giving the impression that its less than firm. But I don't buy that at this stage...for Scholz to even step this far means, as 956 said, that he understands that things are about to get really ugly over there and he is saving his political ass from being behind the curve.

 

It is going to wreck our export competitiveness though, which is huge here given how dependent Germany is on exports. And now the question domestically has already turned to whether NS1 is going to be turned off on the Russian end, along with the trans-Ukrainian lines. Domestically, Putin hadn't been seen as using gas as a weapon against Germany yet. If he has taken into calculation that if NS2 goes, so does all of it, then we are fucked. Prolly fucked either way, but that would double fuck us.

 

But surely this going to reopen the nuclear debate...shutting down the 3 remaining nuclear plants in December when things are this precarious would be complete insanity.

[956 Worldwide 35602]

17 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Was it expected that NS2 was going to be certified during a Russian invasion of a neighboring country? Wouldn’t certification and pipeline activation give Russia more control of German decisions?

Regardless If certification is a political decision, then the non-certification can be reversed at a moments notice with no harm to Germans citizens.

It’s a different topic, but Germany becoming more dependent on Russia makes very little sense.

NS2 is done.  Gazprom finished the pipeline and it was waiting on a bunch of legal, technical, and regulatory hurdles to begin flowing.  And absolutely-- it was clear that NS2 would give Russia unneeded leverage over Germany (as well as the loss of leverage that Ukraine and some eastern EU states currently have). No one was expecting the certification to go through during the crisis-- but what is so important here are two things.

First, Scholz made clear that Germany was taking a proactive step and not just a delaying tactic.  His government will withdraw a key document, without which the pipeline cannot go forward.  As he explains-- "it sounds technical but this is a legal and administrative step that is necessary."  It is a significant shift from "we won't say it out loud, but our bureaucrats are taking their time looking at these papers" to "we're withdrawing our permission slip for this." 

Second-- Scholz and Merkel before him had steadfastly refused to link NS2 to Ukraine or Russian bad behavior.  The refrain "this is a commercial project and is unrelated to security or politics" became the most hated phrase in any meeting with the Germans.  Now that Scholz has dropped that line and has admitted the obvious, it will be very difficult to walk it back.  Perhaps more importantly-- if they hypothetically tried to proceed with certification or activation absent a shift in Russian behavior, that line is gone in any talks with the U.S. about standing down on our own sanctions against the German firms that are involved in the project. 

It's an extremely big deal.  

[KYHorn 17637]

Germany halting Nord Stream 2

 

Edited February 22, 2022 by KYHorn

[52-80 19377]

4 minutes ago, KYHorn said:

Germany halting Nord Stream 2

https://twitter.com/AP/status/1496080150085177344?t=jQ66fSlCokiBOh0wZidhJg&s=19

This winter totally proved DE/EU can afford to suspend additional supply of natural gas... /s

[vicerous 169]

Some great commentary going on here. Appreciate all the information. 

[Shady Ray 1634]

1 hour ago, 956 Worldwide said:

At the current moment of crisis, it's tough to imagine the CDU teaming up with AfD to force snap elections on this issue so there is time to bounce back.  He will for sure take some heat internally, but to my mind at this point-- he is pulling the bandaid.  It will sting a bit, but better to get this over with. 

Yeah, CDU won't do that. Coalition is already failing due to other issues, specifically Covid management, and there would be no benefit for them to do anything to risk anything at the moment.

 

My guess would be that CDU chair Merz will give general support to Scholz given the events of last night, while having his subordinates continue to blast him as being indecisive to date, and will wait until their numbers continue to dip before doing anything to trigger new elections. It is too soon for them to pursue snap elections. The Free Democrats (the wobbly third wheel in the current coaltion) would need to be part of that as well, as once new elections occur, if Free Dems can hold their losses to a minimum, they would likely just switch over to the CDU-led government. 

Either way, Germans tend to expect a certain degree of decorum when decisions like this are made, so for the time being the discourse will remain polite. It will be worth observing if the SPD base starts to shift to Die Linke in the polls or if the right-wing of the CDU/CSU start to peel off to the far-right AfD. They already started this afternoon prepping us for major gas hikes, which have already been out of control, so I would expect some bleeding to occur to the fringes.

 

Edited February 22, 2022 by Shady Ray

[Shady Ray 1634]

Double post

Edited February 22, 2022 by Shady Ray

[CooterBrown 18289]

Wrong thread.

[52-80 19377]

dutch nat gas futures perked up a cute 9% today.  is it gonna touch 100 this week?

 

 

 

 

[Doc Sam Beckett 5911]

5 hours ago, Shady Ray said:

A gas supply shortage in Europe has been widely blamed on a dearth of gas flows from Russia. It has particularly hit Germany’s low-income workers, which Scholz’s Social Democrats (SPD) party rely on for votes.

“Germany has been resisting pressure from the US because it absolutely needs reliable gas supplies from Russia and, for all it is now one of the top exporters of liquified natural gas in the world, the US cannot replace Russia in that role as key gas supplier to Germany,” said Ronald Smith, senior oil and gas analyst at BCS Global Markets.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/1/25/ukraine-russia-what-is-nord-steam-2-and-why-is-it-contentious

 

One of the points that the SPD has started making lately is, "if we are unable to get Russian gas, are we now going to be expected to pay twice the price for LNG (that we aren't even able to efficiently receive) that has been sourced from equally-evil Middle Eastern autocrats merely because they are allied with the West?" When the prices spike even higher than they already have - which is significant - I expect this type of argument to start becoming much more prevalent in the public discourse.

 

It's gonna be a political shit show, as the extremes on the extreme left, die Linke, and the extreme right, the Alternative für Deutschland, are already rabble rousing saying that killing NS2 will demonstrate peak capitulation to US interests at the expense of the German people. Now, that isn't going to result in some massive shift towards their parties, as both parties are largely seen as too extreme, but it definitely could peel off enough from the respective right/left flanks of the centrist parties to make governing Germany almost impossible. We have already seen this fracturing occur to the degree where for the first time in history Germany was unable to cobble together a two-party coalition, resulting in the current tripartide "Traffic Light Coalition" of the SPD, Greens, and Free Democrats. A shift of even 3 percent to the extremes could have a massive impact on coaltion building.

 

In short, it's going to destablize Germany politically if NS2 dies.

 

1 hour ago, 956 Worldwide said:

I will defer to @Shady Ray on internal German politics, but it seems this is a decent play.  You're doing this shit on your terms and showing leadership and I think the writing was on the wall.  At the current moment of crisis, it's tough to imagine the CDU teaming up with AfD to force snap elections on this issue so there is time to bounce back.  He will for sure take some heat internally, but to my mind at this point-- he is pulling the bandaid.  It will sting a bit, but better to get this over with. 

 

36 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Second-- Scholz and Merkel before him had steadfastly refused to link NS2 to Ukraine or Russian bad behavior.  The refrain "this is a commercial project and is unrelated to security or politics" became the most hated phrase in any meeting with the Germans.  Now that Scholz has dropped that line and has admitted the obvious, it will be very difficult to walk it back.  Perhaps more importantly-- if they hypothetically tried to proceed with certification or activation absent a shift in Russian behavior, that line is gone in any talks with the U.S. about standing down on our own sanctions against the German firms that are involved in the project. 

It's an extremely big deal.  

The political ramifications in Germany is a fascinating subplot. Does Scholz and the SDP take the brunt of the blame for NS2? On the one hand, it seems the CDU is siding with Scholz, but on the other hand it seems like this is going to piss off a lot of German citizens, including the SDP base. The article mentioned above says the US isn't able to meet Germany's supply needs, but can we meet a portion of it? Fascinating to watch unfold, and a side note, I'm jealous whenever I see a functional government with more than two political parties. 

[956 Worldwide 35602]

The EU is weighing sanctions on hundreds of Duma members and several Russian banks that will bite pretty hard.  According to “diplomatic sources” it’s Hungary that is the only country not clearly on board with the package. Color me completely and utterly unsurprised on this one.  

[Captainant 28604]

12 minutes ago, Doc Sam Beckett said:

The article mentioned above says the US isn't able to meet Germany's supply needs, but can we meet a portion of it?

It's an infrastructure issue. Germany could have chosen to build LNG terminals but instead took the easier option of putting their nation's wellbeing into the hands of a despotic dictator with NS2

[Nice Guy Eddie 13743]

2 minutes ago, Captainant said:

It's an infrastructure issue. Germany could have chosen to build LNG terminals but instead took the easier option of putting their nation's wellbeing into the hands of a despotic dictator with NS2

This situation demonstrates how Germany made the wrong decisions and whether they will pursue a better one for their long term interests.

[immamac 44421]

Here's what I don't get, does Putin think WW3 is the only way Russia prospers? There's no way anyone will do shit with him now unless they are part of Russia. Even the North Koreans have the Chinese, I doubt Russians will even get that, because north Korea is willing to play the puppet state game and Russia is not. China taking over Russia wouldn't be the worst thing in the world IMHO, but it'll never happen they would start shit with China too. 

They are like an old blind dog that keeps shitting themselves and biting everyone. Time for them to just get euthanized, but no one wants to do it. 

[Shady Ray 1634]

44 minutes ago, Doc Sam Beckett said:

The political ramifications in Germany is a fascinating subplot. Does Scholz and the SDP take the brunt of the blame for NS2? On the one hand, it seems the CDU is siding with Scholz, but on the other hand it seems like this is going to piss off a lot of German citizens, including the SDP base. The article mentioned above says the US isn't able to meet Germany's supply needs, but can we meet a portion of it? Fascinating to watch unfold, and a side note, I'm jealous whenever I see a functional government with more than two political parties. 

The fallout will not play out as though people people love the pipeline or are sympathetic to Russia, but rather in the form of fury over fuel costs, increased price of goods, and the economic impact to German exports. And so it will essentially be blamed completely on the Greens, as they are seen as the architects of all things stupid on German energy policy. A realistic view would be to put them all in the dock for mismanaging energy, but the Greens are the ones seen as injecting into the debate and pressuring for stupid decisions at every turn. You can already see Green co-leader Robert Habeck starting to appear concerned about this. His presser today re heating costs was like a dead man walking.

 

What people who don't follow German politics don't understand is that the SPD weren't truly "chosen" by the masses. The CDU put an absolute fucking clown in to run as Merkel's heir...a little guy named Armin Laschet, who squandered a 25% polling lead in a few months. When the floods hit the north in the summer, he essentially showed no compassion and was seen laughing on TV when the German President, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, was giving a somber speech over the losses from the floods. So Laschet immediately pissed away what was left of the CDU's equity, and then just kept fucking up, pushing his numbers lower. Laschet was chosen to be Merkel's replacement in April, and then he "laughed" in late June...look at the corresponding trend line of the CDU when this squirelly fella was chosen, and then again when the floods hit in the summer:

 

 

So that said, Scholz basically backed into office in a completely weak state...even with Laschet's regardedness, Scholz only eeked out a 1% win. He literally was in third place as late as August for a September election, and he only won because the Germans were aghast at the idea of Annalena Baerbock leading the country. So he's going to collapse based on his weakness alone, and the Greens will based on energy costs and their various knock-on effects.

 

Re supply, the infrastructure for LNG is not there. Germany doesn't have the terminals and we won't have them for years...so at this point the shortfall in energy is literally being appoached with a hope and a prayer. The entire infrastructure is built around Russian fuel and if this thing escalates even more, and Russia cuts off the other pipelines, we are only going to be saved the worst of it due to the time of year and the current mild winter. But the less-existential issues are still going to be huge.

 

I am not one to believe you can tell public opinion based on internet comments, because quite simply, you can't. But I have subscriptions to basically all the big news sites, and even behind the paywalls, where trolls and bots tend not to dwell, the comments today have been almost exclusively against the move. I can't tell you how many variants of "Great, so we freeze for the Ukrainians" or "And Olaf will stay warm in the Chancellery regardless" or  "Of course, the Americans finally get their wish of a dead pipeline." 

 

Germans don't demonstrate and they don't speak publicly about politics very much, so we won't know until State elections start occurring, but there is a real risk that some people take this out by moving to the extremes. If Putin engages in pure butchery over there, that will lessen this sentiment. But if not, it is going to resurface in the form of anger over costs.

Edited February 22, 2022 by Shady Ray

[SmokeyTheBear 5569]

8 minutes ago, immamac said:

Here's what I don't get, does Putin think WW3 is the only way Russia prospers? There's no way anyone will do shit with him now unless they are part of Russia. Even the North Koreans have the Chinese, I doubt Russians will even get that, because north Korea is willing to play the puppet state game and Russia is not. China taking over Russia wouldn't be the worst thing in the world IMHO, but it'll never happen they would start shit with China too. 

They are like an old blind dog that keeps shitting themselves and biting everyone. Time for them to just get euthanized, but no one wants to do it. 

My read is that Russia cannot compete on the global stage anymore so their ethos is to bring the world down to them. Destabilize the world's governments, force mass refugees into your enemies lands (see Syria and now Ukraine into Europe), flood the world with misinformation, etc. I even think long term they could win in a climate changed world where their land becomes the new breadbasket of the world once it thaws. This feels like a loss for Russia in the short term but if he can empire build (with possible support with China), long term this could position Russia for some new Cold War that elevates Putin/Russia into real relevance. 

[Parliament 14620]

Demographically, Russia is screwed.  Their fertility rate is 1.6/woman, NO immigration.  Per my link below,  ...since 2020, due to excess deaths from the COVID-19 pandemic, Russia's population has undergone its largest peacetime decline in recorded history.  At this point, they're deciding how they wanna go out.  So I agree with imacamac.   They're simply being irrational.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Russia#:~:text=However%2C since 2020%2C due to,over 193 ethnic groups nationwide.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13743]

Russia seems like a great example of a failing (failed?) developed country. Weren't they highly educated and had top notch science & tech research even into the 80s? Their fall into a criminal state has led their talented young people to get the hell out of Dodge.

 

[956 Worldwide 35602]

NSIAP, it is rare that multilateral diplomacy produces anything of eloquence and thoughtfulness on any side.  The Kenyan rep on the UNSC gave a short and insightful evisceration of Putin’s claims about Ukraine and hopefully will get people in the non-aligned bloc thinking of the implications of all this to not just the post-Cold War, but post-colonial order. 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2022/feb/22/kenyas-enoy-to-un-cites-colonial-past-as-he-condemns-russian-move-into-ukraine-video

[956 Worldwide 35602]

31 minutes ago, SmokeyTheBear said:

My read is that Russia cannot compete on the global stage anymore so their ethos is to bring the world down to them. Destabilize the world's governments, force mass refugees into your enemies lands (see Syria and now Ukraine into Europe), flood the world with misinformation, etc. I even think long term they could win in a climate changed world where their land becomes the new breadbasket of the world once it thaws. This feels like a loss for Russia in the short term but if he can empire build (with possible support with China), long term this could position Russia for some new Cold War that elevates Putin/Russia into real relevance. 

I am of the opinion that it’s usually a mistake to ascribe true generational strategic thought to decision-makers, in particular when talking about individual events.  Usually this is held up as a supposed “benefit” of an autocratic regime, whose leaders can supposedly thoughtfully guide the nation based on wisdom and long-term vision, while democracies lurch from crisis to crisis.  I do not see real world events reflecting that, and especially not in the case of post-Cold War Russia or even the Soviet Union. When you do see that kind of generational thought, it’s usually megalomaniac and irrational, like Hitler- and the outlier. 
 

I really think that Putin has decided that a democratic, Western leaning Ukraine is a threat to Russia as he sees it NOW. And he is trying to achieve a goal of ending that threat and hasn’t put much thought into generational development of Russia.  

[Captainant 28604]

4 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Russia seems like a great example of a failing (failed?) developed country. Weren't they highly educated and had top notch science & tech research even into the 80s? Their fall into a criminal state has led their talented young people to get the hell out of Dodge.

Russia had great science and education, except for the areas they didn't. Like most things under the communist system it was haves and have nots, depending on their standing with the party. To frame it another way, they have (had?) good depth of technical knowledge, but a limited breadth of expertise

It should serve as a warning for what happens when you scorn intellectualism and turn education into a football

[dieucla98 2963]

 

Any clue on what kind of aircraft we're dealing with here? Obviously a very suspect flight path, I'm guessing military but which military?

https://www.flightradar24.com/SPRAM/2ae75151

Edit: Super high, super slow - must be a drone?

Edited February 22, 2022 by dieucla98

[Nivek 17427]

8 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Russia seems like a great example of a failing (failed?) developed country. Weren't they highly educated and had top notch science & tech research even into the 80s? Their fall into a criminal state has led their talented young people to get the hell out of Dodge.

 

Those people seemed kind of clumsy with all the falling out of windows.  

[Nice Guy Eddie 13743]

7 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

NSIAP, it is rare that multilateral diplomacy produces anything of eloquence and thoughtfulness on any side.  The Kenyan rep on the UNSC gave a short and insightful evisceration of Putin’s claims about Ukraine and hopefully will get people in the non-aligned bloc thinking of the implications of all this to not just the post-Cold War, but post-colonial order. 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2022/feb/22/kenyas-enoy-to-un-cites-colonial-past-as-he-condemns-russian-move-into-ukraine-video

Thanks for posting. We frequently hear that common (culture, language, religion, etc.) people should be allowed to create their own borders but this is a good argument against such actions as it inevitably leads to violence and even a cease-fire doesn't solve the underlying crisis. At the end of the day, Russia should respect the international boundaries that they previously agreed to before. If they honesty thought that people of Russian descent were being mistreated by the Kyiv govt, then work to solve that problem.

I recognize that America and probably every other power can be hypocrites in international disputes. 

[RamjetFDO 10655]

17 hours ago, clapclapclap said:

"I haz big desk."

Iz better now.

 

[Shady Ray 1634]

1 minute ago, RamjetFDO said:

Iz better now.

 

You glorious bastard.

[DDD Dad 14663]

1 minute ago, RamjetFDO said:

Iz better now.

 

Call for you sir. Bert on line 1. 

[BabaYaga 15632]

3 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

I really think that Putin has decided that a democratic, Western leaning Ukraine is a threat to Russia as he sees it NOW. And he is trying to achieve a goal of ending that threat and hasn’t put much thought into generational development of Russia.  

Ukraine is such a wealth of resources.  About the size of Texas, it's a massive prize and it's agriculture capacity and natural resources are not to the discounted.  As for the actions taken?  I think Russia is going to get what it wants here. Pretty much an exact copy of what happened in Crimea 7.  Putin is trying to create Novorossiya and get the borders back to USSR times

The West throws a fit and issues sanctions (which will eventually expire quietly)

[DDD Dad 14663]

3 minutes ago, Shady Ray said:

You glorious bastard.

Also this. 

[utee94 16091]

5 minutes ago, RamjetFDO said:

Iz better now.

 

It's good but I feel like it needs more telephones.