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Y'all keep talking upthe Switchblade to interdict Russian supply lines.   It can do that but only up to about 10KM (it's max range).   The issue again here is Russian arty set up 25km or more from the "front".  

The switchblade should be a valuable tool for hitting supply train vehicles on the way to deliver ammo/fuel/rations to the front but will be of little or no use on guns firing from beyond their range.

But if we have any old Predators just laying around or maybe we splurge and send them some Reapers...  Now we're talking about unleashing hell at very, very long distances.

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3 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Wow.  I've got a relative who buys into stupid conspiracy shit like Q, etc., (and has for years) and she's been buying into Putin's narratives, and she quotes RT and the other Russian outlets, but at least she doesn't have any family members from that area.  

Just remember - it's easy to fool someone, and it's a lot harder to convince them that they've been fooled, especially when confirmation bias is extremely easy to do these days thanks to social media and state-run media outlets in Russia.

Just avoid political viewpoints with them (you'll never sway them) and keep the arguments simple, and use some examples like this:

  • Ask them if they really believe Ukraine was going to attack Russia with all of its nukes, like the Russian media is claiming?
  • If Putin is telling the truth, why can't Russian people openly discuss the war instead of being imprisoned for asking questions?
  • Ukraine has journalists from around the world following its troops in various cities, with the only restrictions being not to show Ukrainian troop positions.  Why isn't Putin inviting the world's journalists in to follow his soldiers?
  • Why do all of these Russian oligarch buddies of Putin own yachts worth tens and hundreds of millions of dollars, when Russian soldiers have expired rations and shit gear?  Why does Putin own a yacht that would feed his entire army, when his soldiers are running low on food and don't have simple things like optics and night vision gear?  Why does Putin and his oligarch buddies own mansions worth billions of dollars, while the Russian army has been openly seen shipping stolen goods from Belarus, etc.?
  • The head of the Wagner group literally bragged on social media about his Nazi tattoos - why doesn't Putin jail him?
  • The Russian military is fucking up the Russian-speaking areas of Ukraine, and they admit to their operations and attacks on those areas.  Why attack the Russian speaking areas they claim they are protecting?
  • Putin is old-school KGB.  If your family member is old enough to remember the KGB, but doesn't think this important....
  • Putin claimed they weren't going to invade for months and months, and then does it.  He then claimed he was withdrawing troops, then sent in more.  Why does he feel the need to lie?
  • Putin has spent decades talking about how Ukraine belongs to Russia historically, and even wrote a manifesto of sorts last July proving it. Why?
  • Putin claims that Ukrainians are simply Russians by another name
  • If Putin says that Ukrainians are actually Russians by another name, and if he says many Ukrainians are Nazis, then there are millions of Russians that must be Nazis, which makes Russians bad guys. Granted, this is a dumb fucking argument, I know, but have fun with it.
  • If there really are Nazis running the country and building spooky stuff in research labs, then UN/NATO should get involved militarily and start looking for Nazis alongside Putin's army.  Challenge them on this - if there are Nazis, then there should be no problem teaming up with the West to root them out.
  • Russia has been trying to destroy the Ukrainian language and culture going back to the 1700s and earlier.  Why?
  • Kyiv existed long before Moscow, so why does Moscow/Russia claim seniority?
  • Some of the justifications that Putin uses could be used by England/France/Spain/Mexico to claim that parts of the US belong to them, AND it could damn sure be used by Native Americans to claim a huge chunk of the US as belonging to them.  Ask your relative if they think Texas should go back to Mexico or Spain.

Granted, these are stupid fucking arguments to be having with somebody here in 2022, especially if that person is old enough to remember the Cold War, but just remember, avoid talking politics with them about it, and keep it to the historical stuff mentioned in the list above.

In my experience, you won't convince them that Russia is not in the right, but at least make them defend some of the stupid shit that Russia has claimed.

You have more patience than than I do. After sitting there and not interrupting their moronic dribble for 40 minutes, then continued to get interrupted making points similar to the above, and finally getting a repeat lesson of RT talking points now including Germany is much older state than 1871. I left and went to Whataburger, no regrets. 

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17 minutes ago, OU Sucks said:

So Ukraine used their negative 36 helicopters to blow up the oil depot in Russia?  Am I getting that right?

Those negative helicopters can fly inverted, so maybe that confused the Russians.

1402191053_2022-04-0521_45_21-becauseIwasinvertedtopgun-GoogleSearch.png.1b174e4fc6126170a79761e99d524e81.png

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40 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Never thought Mali would be roped into this, but here we are.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-60997602

Screenshot_20220406-050436_Chrome.jpg

That’s Wagner group.

and that’s pretty much par for the course / normal ducking Tuesday level atrocities for them.

They run around Syria,  North Africa, and central Africa propping up warlords and authoritarians.

This stuff has been going on for a while and I would argue that it’s not really any more of an escalation than what’s been going on for the last decade at least.

Although one could argue that they are there / able to operate more in this manner due to the French troop withdrawal earlier this year? IDK enough about the dynamics of north / west Africa to make this assessment.

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8 hours ago, Macanudo said:

Y'all keep talking upthe Switchblade to interdict Russian supply lines.   It can do that but only up to about 10KM (it's max range).   The issue again here is Russian arty set up 25km or more from the "front".  

The switchblade should be a valuable tool for hitting supply train vehicles on the way to deliver ammo/fuel/rations to the front but will be of little or no use on guns firing from beyond their range.

But if we have any old Predators just laying around or maybe we splurge and send them some Reapers...  Now we're talking about unleashing hell at very, very long distances.

Switchblade can be carried in a backpack, though. There's no way Russia can secure the borders of the area they control well enough to stop a few guys with knowledge of the local terrain from slipping through their lines and penetrating deep enough to do some real damage. They don't have the air superiority or enough technology to monitor their area like that,  and they don't have the manpower to dig and man trenches all the way accross it.

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11 hours ago, ShaggyBevo RIP said:

 

Hey, I have a prediction. Russia is going to collapse after this failed endeavor against Ukraine. And while the US and the West tries to figure out how to house and feed all of the Russian refugees, China is going to buy and steal Russian oil, gas, timber, mineral and other assets.

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21 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

The Czechs have sent T-72 tanks and IFVs to Ukraine.  OSINT saying 10 tanks and a few dozen IFVs.  Great precedent for the Poles and others to tap into their stocks.  Very glad to see NATO nations upping the baseline of support. 
 

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/czech-republic-sends-tanks-ukraine-czech-tv-reports-2022-04-05/ 

I guess they are coming to terms what garbage the russian equipment is.

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In other good news today, Vladimir Zhirinovsky died.

Spoiler

Vladimir Zhirinovsky, a firebrand Russian nationalist, party leader and presidential candidate who built a considerable following during the chaotic post-Soviet 1990s with promises to restore the glory of Soviet empire, has died at a hospital in the Moscow region. He was 75.

 

His death, of covid-19 complications, was announced by Vyacheslav Volodin, the speaker of Russia’s lower house of parliament, the State Duma.

Mr. Zhirinovsky was widely characterized as a bombastic buffoon and bigot with a penchant for violent behavior toward women and journalists. But he was a crudely effective survivor of Russia’s political scene for three decades — rabidly captivating in a nation of mostly colorless politicians.

 

By any measure, his Liberal Democratic Party, known as the LDPR, was almost comically misnamed, given its illiberal and undemocratic ideals. But the niche he filled represented a small but significant part of the Russian population that was angry and disoriented by the pace of change after the dissolution of the Soviet Union in December 1991.

 

Russia was staggered by the sudden transition from communism to a market democracy. With a handful of fabulously wealthy oligarchs and masses of poor pensioners, the former superpower struggled to establish the rule of law, modernize its aging factories and arrest the collapse of a decayed economy.

Mr. Zhirinovsky played on feelings of envy, fear, nostalgia and resentment. He was overtly antisemitic — even though he eventually acknowledged his father’s Jewish roots — and he blamed darker-skinned ethnic minorities and Jews for Russia’s woes. He had an instinct for the TV sound bite, and, in raspy, emotional appeals to Russians, he billed himself as “the last hope of a cheated and humiliated people.” He spoke of reviving a Soviet-style dictatorship if necessary to rebuild Mother Russia and guard it against foreign rivals armed with missiles or merchandise.

“For the past thousand years, Russia has been surrounded by enemies fighting a declared or undeclared war against us,” Mr. Zhirinovsky told a gathering of supporters in 1994. “Americans are cunning. They have learned the experience of Napoleon and Hitler, who came to Russia with a sword. They came with pantyhose, chewing gum, McDonald’s, pornography and horror movies — and they were welcome.”

Trained as a lawyer, Mr. Zhirinovsky had run in every presidential election since founding the LDPR in early 1991 — when it became only the second officially registered political party in seven decades of Communist Party rule.

In the Russian republic’s June 1991 presidential election — the first direct presidential elections in Russian history — Mr. Zhirinovsky garnered 6 million votes, or nearly 8 percent. He lost by a wide measure to an established leader, the pro-reform Boris Yeltsin, but his tally was considered an astonishing show of support for an obscure neophyte. Two years later, the LDPR won 23 percent of the votes cast in parliamentary elections, more than any other party, making it a power to reckon with. He sat for years in the Duma.

Mr. Zhirinovsky was credited with influencing Yeltsin’s foreign policy, in particular the quest to reclaim great-power status and protect the interests of the approximately 25 million ethnic Russians living abroad.

As he ran for high office, Mr. Zhirinovsky focused on reducing the surging crime rate, expanding the welfare state and restoring Russia’s hegemony in its sphere of influence. He laced his speeches with a retrograde, macho humor, joking about free vodka and “group sex” if his party triumphed at the polls. “Political impotence is finished!” he declared in 1993 after voting in legislative elections. “Today is the beginning of orgasm. The whole nation, I promise you, will feel orgasm next year!”

More darkly, he spoke of Jews “infecting the country” through media control, selling the organs of Russian children to Westerners and prostituting Russian women.

His 1993 autobiography and political manifesto, “The Final March South,” was also rife with vulgar remarks about women and minorities. Before crowds, he lobbed insults at American politicians — with the rare exception of 1996 Republican presidential candidate Pat Buchanan, whom he praised as a “brother in arms” for labeling the U.S. Congress “Israeli-occupied territory.”

Rivals tried to dismiss Mr. Zhirinovsky as deranged or a stooge of the old KGB security apparatus or some other secret cabal working to undermine a fledgling democracy, but he managed to find a devoted audience.

 

“You do not understand the psychology of our people,” he told a newspaper in 1995. “Our voters love a bit of contrast, a shock to the system. So if you journalists wrote every day that I was just a normal democrat with a normal program, quiet, intelligent, educated — I would be finished immediately.”

Mr. Zhirinovsky, who had long obscured his background and denied any Jewish descent, was in fact half-Jewish. According to records uncovered in 1994 by a journalist on assignment for the Associated Press and CNN, he was born Vladimir Volfovich Eidelshtein in Alma-Ata, the capital of the Kazakh Soviet Socialist Republic (now Almaty, Kazakhstan), on April 25, 1946.

His mother, Alexandra, described in some reports as a cafeteria worker, had a first husband with the surname Zhirinovsky, but he died of tuberculosis 18 months before Vladimir was born, records showed. Alexandra then married Volf Eidelshtein, a Polish Jew, five months before Vladimir was born.

 

Although Mr. Zhirinovsky said he was an infant when his father died in a car accident, the AP and CNN report could find no records to substantiate that. (Other reports say Volf Eidelshtein left the country and settled in what became Israel.)

When he entered politics, Mr. Zhirinovsky described both parents as Russian. When confronted in 1994 with a birth certificate with his Jewish last name, Mr. Zhirinovsky said it was forged and “prepared against me.”

It took another seven years before he fully admitted his Jewish heritage in a second memoir, and then he said he identified ethnically as Russian. “Why should I reject Russian blood, Russian culture, Russian land and fall in love with the Jewish people only because of that single drop of blood that my father left in my mother’s body?” he wrote in his 2001 book, “Ivan, Close Your Soul.”

 

He had legally changed his surname by the time he entered the Institute of Oriental Languages, affiliated with Moscow State University. He completed his studies in Turkish in 1970 and worked toward a law degree at night at Moscow State University.

He held law-related jobs for the state-run legal agency Inyurkollegiya and then the Mir publishing house of science texts, but he was not a model employee. He irritated co-workers with his political harangues and became a self-appointed worker advocate seeking extravagant benefits from his bosses, former superiors of his told The Washington Post in 1994.

By several accounts, he sought membership in the Communist Party, essential for career advancement but was turned down by managers because of erratic behavior. According to reporting in The Post, local party chieftains received a confidential letter accusing Mr. Zhirinovsky of having lost his position at Inyurkollegiya because of a kickback scheme related to an inheritance case he handled.

 

As the political system began to open slightly under Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev in the late 1980s, Mr. Zhirinovsky was the ultimate opportunist. He attended any party gathering that would allow him to speak. After being deemed untrustworthy or a nuisance by many organizations, he started his own Liberal Democratic Party.

His unflagging energy whipped up feisty crowds in Russia, and he made pilgrimages to right-wing politicians and dictators around the world, bragging at times, for instance, about his “good friend” Saddam Hussein in Baghdad. He was declared unwelcome in France and Germany for his saber-rattling invective against those countries.

The belligerent speaking style spilled over into more disturbing behavior. He had a track record of assault, and most notably attacked a fellow member of parliament, Yevgeniya Tishkovskaya, pulling her hair and holding her in a headlock in 1995. In 2014, he threw a female reporter into the back of his car and shouted for his aides to “violently rape” her. He lost at least two defamation suits over the years.

 
 
 
 
 
 

In more recent years, as Vladimir Putin systematically dismantled any real political opposition through arrests and intimidation, Mr. Zhirinovsky and his party were allowed to hang around as useful foils — offering a facade of competitive races and political choice, while Putin held all the cards.

LDPR often sided with the ruling United Russia party on critical matters. In 2018, during a vote on unpopular pension legislation that raised the retirement age by five years, Mr. Zhirinovsky said he was against the amendment but then called it “inevitable.”

Mr. Zhirinovsky always knew the limits of his influence and popularity, which kept him in his lane but allowed him to sail through many iterations of the Kremlin elite over the decades, said Dmitry Oreshkin, a Russian political scientist.

“He has always been a systemic person,” Oreshkin said, referring to “systemic opposition,” critical voices that are tolerated by the Kremlin and ultimately vote and act as directed by the Kremlin. “Zhirinovsky always played for Putin, or more precisely, he always played for the NKVD [the Commissariat for Internal Affairs] or the KGB, or the FSB, whatever you prefer. He always understood the rules of the game.”

His death puts the future of the LDPR in question as it relied heavily on Mr. Zhirinovsky’s flamboyant persona. His son, Igor, briefly served in parliament and led the LDPR’s parliamentary faction, although father and son were said to have had disagreements over finances and appointments.

Mr. Zhirinovsky’s wife of more than 50 years, biologist Galina Lebedeva, once told reporters that in contrast to his public persona, her husband was “very quiet and peaceful” at home, where he puttered around in slippers and a jogging suit. She said he never forgot birthdays and anniversaries and “asks others before changing the television channel.”

 

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20 hours ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

It pains me to say this, but if I were in those soldiers' shoes, I'd be executing every Russian soldier that surrendered. I suppose that makes me a monster, too. 

Nah, I would cripple them, but I am a bastard.  I would let them go home in wheelchairs and make the russian state care for them, or execute them.

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14 hours ago, Rimbo said:

I'm not sure I buy this story. The Mongols were always willing to let towns surrender, if they'd avoid a fight. If they didn't, however, the Mongols' policy was to kill everyone. Even if they tried to negotiate.

May be more to the story, if chasing a grudge, the Mongols were merciless and offered no quarter.  Either way, it stuck with me that there is not always the need for a fancy, tech related solution.  Often simple ingenuity and understanding your landscape are your best assets.  

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I am actually kind of surprised that Ukraine hasnt put together small 5 man teams that cross the Russian border with multiple sniper rifles and at least 1 anti air solution per man, get to the nearest airbase, and wait until a plane or heli takes off and gets blasted, combined with the other 4 snipers all targeting any visible officer at the base and killing them at the same time.    

get up reposition, and do it again.   Right now it seems Russia has no control over the UKa airspace and the space over their own territory is probably sparsely defended right now.

maybe they just need to complete the pushback of the Rooskies into Belarus and then send in the teams.

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10 hours ago, Macanudo said:

Y'all keep talking upthe Switchblade to interdict Russian supply lines.   It can do that but only up to about 10KM (it's max range).   The issue again here is Russian arty set up 25km or more from the "front".  

The switchblade should be a valuable tool for hitting supply train vehicles on the way to deliver ammo/fuel/rations to the front but will be of little or no use on guns firing from beyond their range.

But if we have any old Predators just laying around or maybe we splurge and send them some Reapers...  Now we're talking about unleashing hell at very, very long distances.

On the flip side, conventional arty needs a designated target.  Couple of guys in a jeep can abscond out into the middle of nowhere, set up, perform their mission, and sneak back.  SB's add a third dimension to the battlefield.

Think back to WWI - you had all your direct action options of machine guns and artillery.  But if a handful of guys could direct a weapon up over the lines that is very hard to spot, especially at night.  That's a game changer.  Even better, there is no time needed to retrieve the drone.  You direct these to the target, and it does the rest.  If you had multiple drones coming in from multiple directions?  That's got to be utterly confusing for such undisciplined troops that we've seen the Russians field.  How can they react fast enough or even identify a target?

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17 minutes ago, AUS-97HORN said:

I am actually kind of surprised that Ukraine hasnt put together small 5 man teams that cross the Russian border with multiple sniper rifles and at least 1 anti air solution per man, get to the nearest airbase, and wait until a plane or heli takes off and gets blasted, combined with the other 4 snipers all targeting any visible officer at the base and killing them at the same time.    

get up reposition, and do it again.   Right now it seems Russia has no control over the UKa airspace and the space over their own territory is probably sparsely defended right now.

maybe they just need to complete the pushback of the Rooskies into Belarus and then send in the teams.

are you a military strategist? you sound like a military strategist.

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surly economists, talk to me like you would a 8 year old:

i keep seeing these forecasts for contractions of Russian GDP/economy of 8%, 10%, something along those lines. 

can someone explain to me how a country could be virtually sealed off from global trade and only see a 10% reduction in economic activity? again, 8 years old, dude.

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20 minutes ago, AUS-97HORN said:

I am actually kind of surprised that Ukraine hasnt put together small 5 man teams that cross the Russian border with multiple sniper rifles and at least 1 anti air solution per man, get to the nearest airbase, and wait until a plane or heli takes off and gets blasted, combined with the other 4 snipers all targeting any visible officer at the base and killing them at the same time.    

get up reposition, and do it again.   Right now it seems Russia has no control over the UKa airspace and the space over their own territory is probably sparsely defended right now.

maybe they just need to complete the pushback of the Rooskies into Belarus and then send in the teams.

They hit dozens of fuel and supply trucks on a RU rear base a couple of days ago. 

 
 
 
wAo98Sgw_normal.jpg
 
 
Replying to
It actually turns out that this claim was legitimate, with at least 35 vehicles totally destroyed or damaged; mostly supply or fuel trucks, but with BMP/T-72 variant also. This is a serious blow.
 
 
Image

https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1511682454536527879?s=20&t=Slj-kbw9ckT3TP8nl14ahw

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Just now, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

surly economists, talk to me like you would a 8 year old:

i keep seeing these forecasts for contractions of Russian GDP/economy of 8%, 10%, something along those lines. 

can someone explain to me how a country could be virtually sealed off from global trade and only see a 10% reduction in economic activity? again, 8 years old, dude.

Their primary export is O&G and weapons.  India and much of the ME will still buy arms, material, and training from them.  They also import O&G

They also still have destinations for O&G.  Germany is a big one, as they have stated they simply are unable to wean themselves off.  Then you have many alternate destinations such as China.  Last I saw, you also had Hungary, Romania, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Belarus and Bulgaria.

Then you have demand.  With Russia cut off from many western players, who picks up the slack?  Saudi/UAE?  Venezuela?  The price/barrel is also much, much higher, meaning they don't have to sell as much to still make a decent profit.

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21 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

On the flip side, conventional arty needs a designated target.  Couple of guys in a jeep can abscond out into the middle of nowhere, set up, perform their mission, and sneak back.  SB's add a third dimension to the battlefield.

Think back to WWI - you had all your direct action options of machine guns and artillery.  But if a handful of guys could direct a weapon up over the lines that is very hard to spot, especially at night.  That's a game changer.  Even better, there is no time needed to retrieve the drone.  You direct these to the target, and it does the rest.  If you had multiple drones coming in from multiple directions?  That's got to be utterly confusing for such undisciplined troops that we've seen the Russians field.  How can they react fast enough or even identify a target?

With Switchblades you can put them in the air from a few miles away and have time to add more distance from the target before it strikes.

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1 hour ago, Ghost of LL said:

In other good news today, Vladimir Zhirinovsky died.

Mr. Zhirinovsky’s wife of more than 50 years, biologist Galina Lebedeva, once told reporters that in contrast to his public persona, her husband was “very quiet and peaceful” at home, where he puttered around in slippers and a jogging suit. She said he never forgot birthdays and anniversaries and “asks others before changing the television channel.”

Well of course

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31 minutes ago, AUS-97HORN said:

I am actually kind of surprised that Ukraine hasnt put together small 5 man teams that cross the Russian border with multiple sniper rifles and at least 1 anti air solution per man, get to the nearest airbase, and wait until a plane or heli takes off and gets blasted, combined with the other 4 snipers all targeting any visible officer at the base and killing them at the same time.    

get up reposition, and do it again.   Right now it seems Russia has no control over the UKa airspace and the space over their own territory is probably sparsely defended right now.

maybe they just need to complete the pushback of the Rooskies into Belarus and then send in the teams.

I've wondered the same thing but also think that Ukraine has shown restraint from taking the war to inside Russian borders.  Expanding the battlefield could have negative affects on world opinion regardless of the strategic value.   And how soon after a Stinger attack on a Russian airbase do we start seeing picture of "atrocities committed by Ukrainian saboteurs" of Russian citizens for propaganda purposes.   We'd highly suspect the evidence but Putin gets to show it on state TV and blame the Nazis.   

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4 minutes ago, ShaggyBevo RIP said:

With Switchblades you can put them in the air from a few miles away and have time to add more distance from the target before it strikes.

Yeah, I'd think you could even operate one from the back of a moving vehicle.  Seems damn hard to defend against and a wet dream for attacking static targets.  Like having your own mobile air support option

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3 minutes ago, ShaggyBevo RIP said:

With Switchblades you can put them in the air from a few miles away and have time to add more distance from the target before it strikes.

Max range is 10KM or about 6 miles.    Let's assume you hit a firebase 20Km behind the front lines.   Yes, the "front" is rather dynamic and not as static as we're used to seeing in prior conflicts.  But just zipping on out from 10 miles behind enemy lines could be a suicide mission.   Again, I realize fighting on home ground makes this a bit easier and small 4-5 man groups would have a better than fighting chance if planned for night attacks.   But let's not act like this is just as simple as driving in and out.     Remember, this part of Ukraine is less hilly and wooded than the area around Kyiv.  

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12 minutes ago, Macanudo said:

Max range is 10KM or about 6 miles.    Let's assume you hit a firebase 20Km behind the front lines.   Yes, the "front" is rather dynamic and not as static as we're used to seeing in prior conflicts.  But just zipping on out from 10 miles behind enemy lines could be a suicide mission.   Again, I realize fighting on home ground makes this a bit easier and small 4-5 man groups would have a better than fighting chance if planned for night attacks.   But let's not act like this is just as simple as driving in and out.     Remember, this part of Ukraine is less hilly and wooded than the area around Kyiv.  

Time to get creative

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14 hours ago, Etexhorn13 said:

This is funny, as after yesterday I decided I just can’t talk about anything current event/political with them. It’s fun being called low IQ and part of the problem in this country with lack of discourse, but it’s really hard to argue with someone that’s presenting information that I’m proving false as we’re having the conversation. He’s not a dumb person, either, but as a former marine captain his style of conversation is just to talk over you and present other cloak room tactics. The response to the Wagner group guy’s tattoos was funny - it was the only time he was not prepared for something I brought up and immediately changed the topic. 

Our relatives would be ashamed. 

Does not compute.

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43 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

Their primary export is O&G and weapons.  India and much of the ME will still buy arms, material, and training from them.  They also import O&G

They also still have destinations for O&G.  Germany is a big one, as they have stated they simply are unable to wean themselves off.  Then you have many alternate destinations such as China.  Last I saw, you also had Hungary, Romania, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Belarus and Bulgaria.

Then you have demand.  With Russia cut off from many western players, who picks up the slack?  Saudi/UAE?  Venezuela?  The price/barrel is also much, much higher, meaning they don't have to sell as much to still make a decent profit.

so other than them being able to freely sell the majority of goods they produce (that now carry a premium) and buy cheap goods from china and india, we've totally BROUGHT THEM TO THEIR KNEES DUUUUURRRR?

 

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4 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

so other than them being able to freely sell the majority of goods they produce (that now carry a premium) and buy cheap goods from china and india, we've totally BROUGHT THEM TO THEIR KNEES DUUUUURRRR?

 

Pretty much.  The biggest blow is Germany, but they're so wrapped around the axle that they can't extricate themselves and are mega-fooked.  

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4 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

Only a matter of time

 

Another angle I read (from Herter, I think) was for UKA to target the actual mechanics and maintenance personnel at forward air bases within Ukraine.  Kill the guys who can keep the planes running, that's just as good as taking out the plane.  These issues may become very real for Russia sooner rather than later.

 

Also, saw this tweet and news stories:

 

The fire was apparently arson, and has already been put out.  But as to an overall approach.....

good-great.gif

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27 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

so other than them being able to freely sell the majority of goods they produce (that now carry a premium) and buy cheap goods from china and india, we've totally BROUGHT THEM TO THEIR KNEES DUUUUURRRR?

 

I'm sure I and many others are shocked that you haven't given this much thought.

For starters, your initial concept of contracting 8-10% was way off. I haven't seen anything lower than 10%, and many are predicting a contraction of 10-20%. So it's likely doubly as bad as think from the start. Other things you've failed to account for:

1.) They export a ton of weapons, but thanks to sanctions on chips and tech, they can't acquire the parts to build or repair their own armaments, but less build more to sell. So yeah, that's kind of a big deal.
2.) Ukraine is considered the world's bread basket. China just bought a fuck ton of the available seed and grain on the world market because they were tipped off by Putin, and they had historic flooding. Russia has already directed no food exports to feed their own population. So with a likely worldwide shortage thanks to Ukraine being fucked, and Russia also lost an export good for their economy, tell me, where do you think there is going to be "cheap" food they can purchase? There won't be any cheap food anywhere in the world next year.
3.) With their shattered economy, who are they beating out on the economic market to buy these goods and food, when demand worldwide will be sky high? You think they can outbid other countries that need the same goods at this point? Even if there were cheap goods and  food they could purchase, do you think they're going to accept payment in shitty Rubles?
4.) Outside of Germany, who can't cut off access to O&G, you think the smaller eastern bloc countries (that already buy their O&G from Russia) are going to pick up the slack for less demand from the rest of Europe cutting back, and other worldwide exports? In short, that poster cited countries that already buy O&G from Russia, so it's not like they're upping NEW money into the coffers of Russia. They're just not reducing what they already buy. Oh, except they and everyone else can now buy it fucking cheaper. How do you not recognize this is a pretty big fucking deal for a cash strapped country? 
 

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1 hour ago, Macanudo said:

Max range is 10KM or about 6 miles.    Let's assume you hit a firebase 20Km behind the front lines.   Yes, the "front" is rather dynamic and not as static as we're used to seeing in prior conflicts.  But just zipping on out from 10 miles behind enemy lines could be a suicide mission.   Again, I realize fighting on home ground makes this a bit easier and small 4-5 man groups would have a better than fighting chance if planned for night attacks.   But let's not act like this is just as simple as driving in and out.     Remember, this part of Ukraine is less hilly and wooded than the area around Kyiv.  

zip in, zip out, it's like going to Wisconsin

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23 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

Imagine you’re defending your country from invasion, and you see your kid or your neighbor’s kid face down in the street with their hands behind their back and shot in the back of the head….

 

 

17 hours ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

i did, that's what caused me to draw the conclusion i too would become a war criminal.

The difference is one is cause and the other is effect.  The invading Russian army created conditions that take people down to the lowest level on Maslow's hierarchy - survival.  They inflict suffering and death on innocents including rape of wives, sisters, daughters and then kill them and the children after torture.  

The response is a reaction to that evil, because it must be stopped and the consequences must deter others.  There is also the fact that the criminals will go on to the next town and do the same thing like an animal that likes to attack children, there is no rehabilitation and the risk of another attack is too high, it must be put down.

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