Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[Bevo 13493]

10 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Russia had great science and education, except for the areas they didn't. Like most things under the communist system it was haves and have nots, depending on their standing with the party. To frame it another way, they have (had?) good depth of technical knowledge, but a limited breadth of expertise

It should serve as a warning for what happens when you scorn intellectualism and turn education into a football

When I worked in industry, our best scientists and inventors were Russian. They also had more practical solutions to general problems than Americans. For example, most of the restriction endonucleases used in molecular biology/basic science are made there. If they sit in customs too long, the products thaw and are ruined. Dry ice doesn't last long enough and we looked at things like better coolers, cutting shipping delays, etc. Russia added sawdust to the ice which lowered temps and made it thaw much, much more slowly. So while we looked at Yetis, they just rubbed a little dirt in the ice and put it in cheap styrofoam coolers.

[SquishMitten 10395]

The article mentioned above says the US isn't able to meet Germany's supply needs, but can we meet a portion of it? 

Expanding on this question a bit because the article was a little unclear. Can we flat out not meet their needs? Or can we just not meet their needs without using fracked gas?

[atomheartbevo 89362]

 

[Trey3216 15325]

6 minutes ago, SquishMitten said:

 

Expanding on this question a bit because the article was a little unclear. Can we flat out not meet their needs? Or can we just not meet their needs without using fracked gas?

 

They don't have the import terminal capacity.  

[52-80 19066]

BREAKING:  Russia issued another statement to its European adversaries by wire

[Shady Ray 1633]

SPD starting to trot out voices to spin like mad in the German-language media that this is not the cancellation of NS2, but is simply an administrative act to reassess now that thing have changed on the ground and how it can impact supply. This can certainly be gleaned from Scholz's statement, but there are definitely efforts being made by underlings to stress this "temporary nature". Politicians are gonna politician, no matter where they are.

 

I tend to agree with 956 that this will be much harder to bring back into current political debate at the moment though. If things cool down, which is unlikely, and prices become unbearable, though, it leaves the door wide open for SPD to u-turn (or for the next administration).

 

Also, just released interview in Focus with widely read and very influential academic/analyst, Thomas Jäger, where he addresses this and much more:

 

Edit: Note how he brings Iran into it as a critical element for relief...Israel not going to like that.

 

Quote

Scholz is serious - but "the blade of his sword is not long enough" - FOCUS Online
Christian Döbber
Interview with Thomas Jäger

 

Tuesday, 02/22/2022, 3:17 PM


Chancellor Olaf Scholz is serious and has announced that he will stop Nord Stream 2. FOCUS online Russia expert Thomas Jäger explains what prompted Scholz to take this step, why the pipeline is far from off the table and what options Vladimir Putin now has to shoot back.

 

FOCUS Online: Mr. Jäger, Chancellor Olaf Scholz has announced that he will put the certification process for Nord Stream 2 on hold. Does that mean the end of the pipeline?

 

Jäger: No. It is, if you like, a typical Scholz step. It is the withdrawal of the security of supply analysis in the certification process. It was done because the overall situation has changed due to the events in Ukraine and therefore the Federal Ministry of Economics has to carry out a new analysis. As Scholz said, it will take some time. As long as the certification process is suspended. However, this does not mean that the certification process cannot be resumed under changed circumstances. So Nord Stream 2 is by no means off the table.

 

What prompted the Chancellor to take this step? Did you expect that Nord Stream 2 would already be received in the first sanction package?

 

Jäger: The federal government had to react to yesterday's events with a tight sanction package. Only in view of Russia's successive approach, it was not clear when this specific measure would come about.

 

With the announcement that the certification process for Nord Stream 2 will be stopped for the time being, Germany is now sending an important signal - not only to Russia, but also to its allies. There are some uncertain cantonists in the EU, especially Hungary, who are hesitant on the sanctions issue. Germany has now set the pace here.

Sanctions against Russia: "The blade of this sword is not long enough to be vulnerable or even deadly"

 

How much will Scholz's Nord Stream 2 announcement hit Russia?

 

Jäger: For Gazprom and the Russian state, this is certainly a very costly matter. And it is certainly the sharpest sanction that can come directly from Germany. But a temporary stop to Nord Stream 2 is far from the toughest measure. The most serious consequences for Russia would be exclusion from the international payment network Swift.

This is not yet up for debate. Instead, the EU wants to ban the trade in Russian government bonds in order to dry up Russia's financial system. How effective is this step?
 

Jäger: In the short term, Russia will hardly be hit, because that's exactly what the Russian government has prepared for. The debt is low, Russia has a large gold and cash treasure that has been invested in foreign exchange. In addition, it can certainly be assumed that money will flow from other sources. China, for example, will take advantage of this situation and have it remunerated accordingly.
 

In this respect, the sanctions announced by the EU are not a completely blunt sword. But the blade is not long enough to be hurtful or even deadly.
 

"The increased pressure could change one or the other calculation in the Russian elite"
 

Vladimir Putin performed in the Kremlin at noon on Tuesday. The Russian president did not say a word about Scholz's announcement that he wants to stop Nord Stream 2 for the time being or the EU sanctions. Is a diplomatic solution still possible in Ukraine?
 

Jäger: The idea that diplomacy and the threat of sanctions or even violence are a contradiction, does not hit the core. Because both can run in parallel. So the talks will continue. On Thursday, Foreign Ministers Blinken and Lavrov will meet. The Normandy format is also not off the table, at least not for Germany.
 

A diplomatic solution to the conflict is therefore still possible despite the announced sanctions. It also seems quite possible that in view of the increased pressure in Russia, one or the other calculation will now change, for example among those in the Russian elite who will be particularly affected by the sanctions.
 

What options does Putin have now? For example, should we expect the massive reduction of Russian gas supplies?
 

Jäger: The Russian government has always pointed out that they are aware of the possible sanctions. The measures now announced do not have to be a necessary reason for counter-sanctions. However, they are not excluded.

 

Russia is currently playing on several levels. One concerns the events in eastern Ukraine, the other the relationship with the West. Here, the Russian government will primarily strive to divide the member states of the EU, for example by giving Hungary special conditions in terms of gas supplies, trade relations or investments. We have to wait and see if the EU succeeds in keeping the member states together here. As long as this is the case, a relatively strong answer can be given.
 

"Even without Scholz's Nord Stream 2 announcement, energy prices would rise"
 

What do the announced sanctions mean for energy prices in Germany and Europe?
 

Jäger: Prices are made on the market; and it reacts to the entire current development at the moment with rising prices. This trend would have been observed without the announcement of sanctions. Rather, in order to counteract rising energy prices, a quick agreement with Iran would be necessary. In this way, the offer could be increased and thus the price reduced.
 

What impact will the announced sanctions have on the progress of the conflict in Ukraine?
 

Jäger: There is no direct connection here. Vladimir Putin already presented his historical view of Ukraine in an essay last year. According to this, Ukraine is not a state under its own law and the Ukrainians are not a people of their own right, but only "small Russians". Putin is only confronted with the problem that this is seen differently in large parts of Ukraine.
 

The question will be whether the Russian president will be satisfied with limited war goals and try to change the mood throughout Ukraine through hybrid measures. Or whether he says I don't care, it's now being done by force.
 

However, sanctions announced today will have virtually no influence on Putin's decision.
 

About the expert

Prof. Dr. Thomas Jäger has held the Chair of International Politics and Foreign Policy at the University of Cologne since 1999. His research focuses on international relations as well as American and German foreign policy.

https://www.focus.de/politik/ausland/ukraine-krise/interview-mit-thomas-jaeger-scholz-macht-ernst-doch-die-klinge-seines-schwertes-ist-nicht-lange-genug_id_57618943.html

 

 

Edited February 22, 2022 by Shady Ray

[Bolero88 255]

1 hour ago, Captainant said:

It's an infrastructure issue. Germany could have chosen to build LNG terminals but instead took the easier option of putting their nation's wellbeing into the hands of a despotic dictator with NS2

They could have chosen not to close down their nuclear generators. Absolutely mind-numbingly stupid. The truth is that the Germans backed themselves into this Russian-reliant energy corner, and now they will pay for it one way or another. 

[Telegraph_it 3353]

1 minute ago, Bolero88 said:

They could have chosen not to close down their nuclear generators. Absolutely mind-numbingly stupid. The truth is that the Germans backed themselves into this Russian-reliant energy corner, and now they will pay for it one way or another. 

They should have signed up for TXU free nights and solar days. 

[Snake Diggity 4614]

I am ignorant on this topic.  Why wouldn’t we just subsidize Germanys purchase of our NG until they get their nuclear generation capacity such that they don’t need Russia?  Seems like whatever the cost, it would be worth it to prevent WW3 and show Putin we will do what it takes to keep him in line.

[Trey3216 15325]

4 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

I am ignorant on this topic.  Why wouldn’t we just subsidize Germanys purchase of our NG until they get their nuclear generation capacity such that they don’t need Russia?  Seems like whatever the cost, it would be worth it to prevent WW3 and show Putin we will do what it takes to keep him in line.

Like I said earlier, they literally don't have the import terminal capacity to put the slightest dent in their NG needs right now, and it would take 3-5 years to even get close to getting there.  WE could send all the NG we can shake loose over there right now and it would be sitting on boats for months waiting to offload.  Not necessarily the safest thing in the world having a floating megaton NG bomb or 30 just trolloping around various ports.  

[bolverk 29360]

A couple of aircraft surveilling the landscape. Already starting to get dark in eastern Ukraine.

https://www.flightradar24.com/multiview/2ae75151,2ae70cdb

[KYHorn 16808]

5 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

I am ignorant on this topic.  Why wouldn’t we just subsidize Germanys purchase of our NG until they get their nuclear generation capacity such that they don’t need Russia?  Seems like whatever the cost, it would be worth it to prevent WW3 and show Putin we will do what it takes to keep him in line.

Or if Germany doesn't have the terminals, perhaps France, UK, or Italy does and can transport it from there? No clue about this either, just wondering about the obvious solutions

[DDD Dad 14167]

3 minutes ago, KYHorn said:

Or if Germany doesn't have the terminals, perhaps France, UK, or Italy does and can transport it from there? No clue about this either, just wondering about the obvious solutions

Kelcy Warren should have a few extra pennies in his couch to set up something for this after last winter in TX. 

Edited February 22, 2022 by DDD Dad

[Nice Guy Eddie 13391]

Russia is demonstrating why you can't go into business with someone that effectively blackmails you. Maybe just maybe you have to accept short term work with them but not long term.

It's also my understanding that it's a false narrative that the rest of Europe economically needs Russia more than Russia needs Europe.

[956 Worldwide 34313]

28 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

 

Gotta love the blatant blackmailing. 
 

As has been repeated ad nauseam,  NS2 doesn’t really add any new capacity.  It’s a shortcut.

[bolverk 29360]

8 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

I am ignorant on this topic.  Why wouldn’t we just subsidize Germanys purchase of our NG until they get their nuclear generation capacity such that they don’t need Russia?  Seems like whatever the cost, it would be worth it to prevent WW3 and show Putin we will do what it takes to keep him in line.

 

2 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Like I said earlier, they literally don't have the import terminal capacity to put the slightest dent in their NG needs right now, and it would take 3-5 years to even get close to getting there.  WE could send all the NG we can shake loose over there right now and it would be sitting on boats for months waiting to offload.  Not necessarily the safest thing in the world having a floating megaton NG bomb or 30 just trolloping around various ports.  

Pretty good article from 2-3 weeks ago on the LNG situation.

Natural Gas Shipments, Mostly From U.S., Ease Europe’s Energy Crunch
As Russia squeezes supplies, a parade of tankers carrying liquefied natural gas is coming to Europe’s rescue.

By Stanley Reed
Feb. 3, 2022
Near the entrance to Rotterdam’s vast harbor in the Netherlands is a specialized port that is offering an alternative to the web of Russian pipelines that feed much of Europe’s hunger for natural gas.

The facility, called the Gate Terminal, is a critical entry point for liquefied natural gas, an increasingly vital fuel for Europe. This week a giant tanker ship, the GasLog Glasgow, sat at a jetty there, waiting for a winter storm to subside so it could unload liquefied natural gas from Egypt. Another vessel laden with gas waited its turn offshore.

“It’s very busy,” said Stefaan Adriaens, the commercial manager at the terminal.

A year ago, he said, the terminal was running at about 5 percent capacity. Lately, “we are running at 100 percent utilization.”

In recent months the price of natural gas has soared in Europe, drawing a parade of liquefied natural gas tankers to ports like Rotterdam. The very high prices reflect the crimping of Russian gas supplies to Europe, low fuel in the continent’s storage tanks and geopolitical worries over Ukraine, where, the United States and its allies believe, Russia may be preparing for an invasion.

The ships can carry enormous amounts because, when chilled to minus 260 degrees Fahrenheit, natural gas reduces into a liquid that takes up only one six-hundredth of its volume as a gas. Liquefied natural gas, known as LNG, is loaded on ships and transported to any location with facilities to receive the chilled fuel and warm it back to a gaseous state.

A large tanker, around the length of three football fields, can pack a powerful transfusion of energy — enough to light up to 70,000 homes for a year, according to an industry estimate.

Although the GasLog Glasgow’s cargo came from Egypt, a middling but growing gas power, most of the liquid gas flowing to Europe these days is from the United States.

The long-awaited energy battle between Russia, for decades the dominant gas exporter to Europe, and the United States, which for years has promoted its ability to export gas to customers, is at last playing out. Taking advantage of abundant gas from shale drilling, the United States has over the last six years grown from almost nothing to one of the world’s largest exporters of liquefied gas, along with Qatar and Australia.

“A lot of U.S. exporters have ramped up supplies to Europe in the last month or so,” said Ben Cahill, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a research organization in Washington.

Spoiler

While expanding rapidly, exporters with cargoes from the United States are also more likely than others to send their ships where they obtain the highest prices. The result is that, so far this winter, liquefied natural gas suppliers from along the Gulf of Mexico and elsewhere have bailed Europe out of what could have been a dire situation even without the standoff with Russia over Ukraine.

The Biden administration is also leaning on suppliers and their customers to help Europe out.

The liquefied gas shipments have been unusually large and have even outpaced gas imports from Russia in recent weeks, according to Wood Mackenzie, an energy research firm. This surge highlights the fuel’s “contribution to gas supply security,” said Gergely Molnar, an analyst at the International Energy Agency, during a webinar hosted by the Clingendael International Energy Program in the Netherlands.

The shipments to Europe in the fourth quarter of 2021 were up more than 40 percent from a year earlier and more than double the pace in January 2021, according to the International Energy Agency.

Typically at this time of year, the tankers are delivering liquefied natural gas to Asia, said Niels Fenzl, vice president for transportation and terminals at Uniper Global Commodities, which imports gas through the Gate Terminal. “The market has turned, with the volumes flowing into continental Europe instead,” he added.

Because of these shipments, and because the winter has been mild so far, executives at Uniper, a large energy company based in Düsseldorf, Germany, say they are more comfortable that they have enough gas to last through the cold months, when consumption is highest.

They acknowledge, though, that a complete cutoff of Russian gas for more than a few days — something that most energy analysts consider unlikely — would be a stern test.

“We are not saying that the lights would go off or that people would be cold, but it would be an uncomfortable situation,” said Gregor Pett, executive vice president for market analytics at Uniper. “Even if you squeeze the last bit of capacity from the existing terminals, it would be tight,” he added.

While the liquid gas shipments have been an undoubted blessing for European homes, factories and power utilities, there are drawbacks.

Europe is paying a high price for this gas. Roughly 100 tankers just from the United States and Qatar were scheduled to arrive in Europe last month, at a cost of $8.5 billion, said Henning Gloystein, a director at Eurasia Group, a political risk firm.

These shipments have helped cool prices to less than half their highs in December, but gas futures on the Dutch TTF exchange are still selling for about $25 per million British thermal units, about five times prices in the United States.

The shipments may also be nearing their upper limits. Many European receiving terminals are at or near their capacity. A terminal like Gate can handle only around 11 ships a month, Mr. Adriaens said.

Weather permitting, a tanker can unload in a day, but the facilities for storing and reconstituting the fuel and sending it out into the gas grid are bottlenecks.

Until recently, there was little reason to pour money into larger facilities. Liquefied natural gas was something of an afterthought in Europe, with cargoes mostly going to Asian countries like Japan, South Korea and China.

A handful of countries in Europe do import substantial amounts of LNG, among them Britain and Italy, which has three terminals including one at Panigaglia near Genoa. Germany, Europe’s largest gas consumer, lacks a dedicated terminal but receives gas through Gate or other nearby terminals.

Industry insiders say that unlike container ships, which have faced enormous backups at some ports, gas tankers usually move in and out of terminals on schedule, not least because otherwise there can be losses to the valuable cargo.

“If you have waiting time, a little bit of the cargo boils off every day,” said Paul Wogan, chief executive of GasLog, a large operator of LNG vessels. “You really want to go straight into port,” he added.

Analysts also say the global liquefied gas industry is producing at close to its limits. There is room to send gas to Europe now because Asia is experiencing a warm winter, but that situation may not last.

“If cargoes are going to go to Europe, it means they are going to go away from other markets,” Mr. Cahill said.

 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13391]

6 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Like I said earlier, they literally don't have the import terminal capacity to put the slightest dent in their NG needs right now, and it would take 3-5 years to even get close to getting there.  WE could send all the NG we can shake loose over there right now and it would be sitting on boats for months waiting to offload.  Not necessarily the safest thing in the world having a floating megaton NG bomb or 30 just trolloping around various ports.  

So you're saying the best time to have started the terminal work was 5 years ago. The next best time is this afternoon.

[bolverk 29360]

4 minutes ago, KYHorn said:

Or if Germany doesn't have the terminals, perhaps France, UK, or Italy does and can transport it from there? No clue about this either, just wondering about the obvious solutions

Yeah, there are terminals in other countries. Rotterdam is the focus of the article I just posted above.

[KYHorn 16808]

1 minute ago, bolverk said:

Yeah, there are terminals in other countries. Rotterdam is the focus of the article I just posted above.

Reading it now. Thanks!

[Shady Ray 1633]

Just now, KYHorn said:

Or if Germany doesn't have the terminals, perhaps France, UK, or Italy does and can transport it from there? No clue about this either, just wondering about the obvious solutions

There really is no solution. And Annalena Baerbock is now pushing to phase out the remaining coal plants now that the government has had its way with nuclear. Apparently we are going to fuel the 4th largest economy on the planet with bratwurst-infused unicorn farts and Oktoberfest piss.

 

Germany already got a nasty note from the Dutch that they were tapped out and that they wouldn't be increasing supply. And their voters are pissed at Germany for the increased demand due to claims that the Groningen field is causing earthquakes:

 

Der Spiegel

Dutch economic affairs minister, Stef Blok, has expressed concern about Germany’s large appetite for natural gas sourced from the Netherlands’ northern Groningen province, where its continued exploitation has recently resulted in hundreds of small earthquakes, Claus Hecking reports for Der Spiegel. The Dutch government had planned to stop gas production at the Groningen field due to the continued quakes, but the site is now set to about twice as much as expected in the 2021/22 financial year due in part to high demand from Germany gas. Blok has nevertheless written a letter to his German counterpart, climate and economy minister Robert Habeck, complaining about the significantly higher demand registered by German customers for low-calorie gas from its neighbour country. In a statement to the House of Representatives in the Hague, Blok explained that he told Habeck he was “seriously worried about this development,” adding that he asked his German counterpart to check what measures Germany can take to limit its gas consumption “to a minimum." Due to the ongoing energy price crisis in Europe, Germany's utilities will likely have to order 1.1 billion cubic metres more of gas from the Netherlands this year than originally planned, according to the article

 

https://www.politico.eu/article/the-netherlands-earthshaking-gas-deal-with-germany/

 

https://www.cleanenergywire.org/news/netherlands-concerned-about-effects-high-german-gas-demand-domestic-reserves

[Nice Guy Eddie 13391]

38 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

 

This is when you want the German govt to tweet back that if Medvedev wants to negotiate via Twitter that any possible certification will be pushed back by 6 months for each tweet. I expect Gazprom's stock price would crack before the German economy.

But I wouldn't expect to see that.

[Parliament 14112]

12 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

So you're saying the best time to have started the terminal work was 5 years ago. The next best time is this afternoon.

Goes back further than that.  Germany and Russia had a similar dustpan >15 years ago.  Their fix?  Start NS2 and send their former Chancellor to go work for the Russians.  Seems the eggs they laid then have become loudly-clucking chickens today.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2005/dec/13/russia.germany

 

[52-80 19066]

15 minutes ago, KYHorn said:

Or if Germany doesn't have the terminals, perhaps France, UK, or Italy does and can transport it from there? No clue about this either, just wondering about the obvious solutions

It's not just a matter of pipeline and logistics, but also supply dynamics.  Central europe is bereft of natural resources.  Poland, Slovakia, Czech Republic, Romania, etc, have all tried but failed to wean themselves off Russian gas.  Continent's been trying to develop in Mediterranean, Black Sea, but not much there.

[ABSR 5289]

1 hour ago, RamjetFDO said:

Iz better now.

 

Not only is it magnificent, but somehow one of my post/avatar is on the big TV.  I am not sure if this feels more like Christmas morning, or that I won the lottery?

[dieucla98 2931]

USAF refueling tanker setting up shop just south of Ukraine. Must be some customers nearby....

[Parliament 14112]

2 minutes ago, ABSR said:

Not only is it magnificent, but somehow one of my post/avatar is on the big TV.  I am not sure if this feels more like Christmas morning, or that I won the lottery?

Right there with you.  That's my sister on the other screen.

[956 Worldwide 34313]

Putin has asked the upper house of Russia’s parliament to deploy Russian troops abroad as “peacekeepers.”

 

 

Counterpoint: They are already there. 

[Brisketexan 104464]

The boy has daily German classes at his language school in Berlin -- hodgepodge of other nationalities in there with him.  Including one Russian girl.  He said that she's been super-quiet today.  I suspect that some Russians living abroad (that is, people exposed to something other than Russian state media) have a feel for how shitty this move it.

Not that it matters for shit.  Putin has plenty of support at home, and will go as far as he thinks he can, and that's that.

[Pescado_Rojo 19327]

Just now, Brisketexan said:

The boy has daily German classes at his language school in Berlin -- hodgepodge of other nationalities in there with him.  Including one Russian girl.  He said that she's been super-quiet today.  I suspect that some Russians living abroad (that is, people exposed to something other than Russian state media) have a feel for how shitty this move it.

Not that it matters for shit.  Putin has plenty of support at home, and will go as far as he thinks he can, and that's that.

Pics of Russian girl? 

[Brisketexan 104464]

4 minutes ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

Pics of Russian girl? 

I haven't seen her show up in anything before.  You've seen the Swede, the Dutch girl, and the Norwegian girl.  That's already a murderers row.

[956 Worldwide 34313]

7 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

The boy has daily German classes at his language school in Berlin -- hodgepodge of other nationalities in there with him.  Including one Russian girl.  He said that she's been super-quiet today.  I suspect that some Russians living abroad (that is, people exposed to something other than Russian state media) have a feel for how shitty this move it.

Not that it matters for shit.  Putin has plenty of support at home, and will go as far as he thinks he can, and that's that.

I was overseas (in Russia actually) at school when we invaded Iraq.  We had what can only be called a struggle session as our small group participated in a “debate” that turned into eloquent verbal beat downs about how stupid America was and how bad it would all turn out. I was ambivalent going in to the debate but the experience made me want to light the fuse on a tomahawk to Baghdad just out of spite.

Of course, those Russian students were very right about U.S. behavior in 2003 and its consequences and it remains for me a good lesson in humility and also how our lizard brains can take over no matter how smart we are. 

Edited February 22, 2022 by 956 Worldwide

[Bigbend1812 12877]

14 minutes ago, dieucla98 said:

USAF refueling tanker setting up shop just south of Ukraine. Must be some customers nearby....

[Parliament 14112]

Keeping up relations...

[Nice Guy Eddie 13391]

24 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Of course, those Russian students were very right about U.S. behavior in 2003 and its consequences and it remains for me a good lesson in humility and also how our lizard brains can take over no matter how smart we are. 

We lied to the world in 2003, or perhaps in the best case, we were just wrong. Decisions like that can come back to haunt you. Of course, you have pragmatic people who will tell you that they can only worry about the situation today and let the future problem be handled by someone else. I doubt 2003 Cheney cared if he created a diplomatic problem in 2022.

Quote

We had what can only be called a struggle session

I had never heard the term 'struggle session' until reading a sci-fi book last night. Now it shows up again. Odd.

Edited February 22, 2022 by Nice Guy Eddie

[MoJames 8241]

So what happened in the past 24 hours?

Russia moved troops // Germany said no to pipeline // USA said sanctions // Italy blew up a volcano

 

What else?

[FartingMonk 3606]

1 minute ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

We lied to the world in 2003, or perhaps in the best case, we were just wrong. Decisions like that can come back to haunt you. Of course, you have pragmatic people who will tell you that they can only worry about the situation today and let the future problem be handled by someone else. I doubt 2003 Cheney cared if he created a diplomatic problem in 2022.

We didn't lie to anyone.  We just confirmation biased the shit out of our narrative and sacked anyone who said anything that had an opposing view.

[F250 28659]

24 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

I was overseas (in Russia actually) at school when we invaded Iraq.  We had what can only be called a struggle session as our small group participated in a “debate” that turned into eloquent verbal beat downs about how stupid America was and how bad it would all turn out. I was ambivalent going in to the debate but the experience made me want to light the fuse on a tomahawk to Baghdad just out of spite.

Of course, those Russian students were very right about U.S. behavior in 2003 and its consequences and it remains for me a good lesson in humility and also how our lizard brains can take over no matter how smart we are. 

 

I've always leaned towards non-intervention myself but yes when having those type of discussions overseas with Euro types it's really easy to fall into "America, Fuck Yeah!!!" emotions.

 

[utee94 15742]

2 minutes ago, FartingMonk said:

We didn't lie to anyone.  We just confirmation biased the shit out of our narrative and sacked anyone who said anything that had an opposing view.

Sure, but maybe the real treasure was the enemies we made along the way?

[Wulaw Horn 18963]

1 minute ago, F250 said:

 

I've always leaned towards non-intervention myself but yes when having those type of discussions overseas with Euro types it's really easy to fall into "America, Fuck Yeah!!!" emotions.

 

Yep. You can get all colonel Jessup in a hurry and tell them to grab a gun and walk the wall or smile and say thank you. Rampant hypocrisy in W Europe from a group of people who twice tried to end the world and now have their sovereignty guaranteed by Uncle Sam. 

[BabaYaga 15202]

3 minutes ago, utee94 said:

Sure, but maybe the real treasure was the enemies we made along the way?

[52-80 19066]

12 minutes ago, FartingMonk said:

We didn't lie to anyone.  We just confirmation biased the shit out of our narrative and sacked anyone who said anything that had an opposing view.

 

 

Edited February 22, 2022 by 52-80

[Fudge Nuggets 19118]

57 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

It's not just a matter of pipeline and logistics, but also supply dynamics.  Central europe is bereft of natural resources.  Poland, Slovakia, Czech Republic, Romania, etc, have all tried but failed to wean themselves off Russian gas.  Continent's been trying to develop in Mediterranean, Black Sea, but not much there.

There's plenty of gas there, it's just hard as fuck to get to and produce.

[FartingMonk 3606]

8 minutes ago, utee94 said:

Sure, but maybe the real treasure was the enemies we made along the way?

We got rid of Gaddafi and Saddam by saying they were in pursuit of WMDs.  I say we pull the old trick out of the playbook and say we have credible evidence that Russia has WMDs.  They should have done it last night at the UN.

[MoJames 8241]

Just now, Fudge Nuggets said:

There's plenty of gas there, it's just hard as fuck to get to and produce.

Go get it.

[BabaYaga 15202]

2 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

There's plenty of gas there, it's just hard as fuck to get to and produce.

[Brisketexan 104464]

Anybody got more on this story out of Reuters?

Quote

MOSCOW, Feb 22 (Reuters) - President Vladimir Putin said on Tuesday that Russia respected the sovereignty of other ex-Soviet republics and that Moscow had made an exception with Ukraine because he said it was under foreign control, the TASS news agency reported.

I don't pay for Reuters.  But that would seem to tell me that Putin knows that one of the side effects of this move is that the rest of em (see: the Baltics) are going to be aggressive as shit about defending themselves going forward, and Putin knows that the message he's sent by Russian action here has some repercussions he may not want to deal with later on.

Putin is going to get a lot out of this.  The question is how much goes on the negative side of the ledger for him, and how will those balance out.  That he's sending a clear message to the rest of Europe of "best be closely aligned with the US for your security needs, or Russia will just conquer your ass" is a risky one for him.

[Bevo 13493]

1 hour ago, Parliament said:

Right there with you.  That's my sister on the other screen.

hey, just curious what is your sister's name? Does she live in Austin?

[Parliament 14112]

She does now.  Recently moved from San Francisco. 

[956 Worldwide 34313]

19 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Anybody got more on this story out of Reuters?

I don't pay for Reuters.  But that would seem to tell me that Putin knows that one of the side effects of this move is that the rest of em (see: the Baltics) are going to be aggressive as shit about defending themselves going forward, and Putin knows that the message he's sent by Russian action here has some repercussions he may not want to deal with later on.

Putin is going to get a lot out of this.  The question is how much goes on the negative side of the ledger for him, and how will those balance out.  That he's sending a clear message to the rest of Europe of "best be closely aligned with the US for your security needs, or Russia will just conquer your ass" is a risky one for him.

I wouldn’t read more into this other than that Ukraine is an exception because it’s the one he is talking about right now. The whole idea is fucking laughable because Russia currently has troops stationed without local government consent in Moldova and he had a whole fucking invasion in Georgia and is still there, too. 
 

Don’t parse Putin’s words and messaging too much when he’s announcing plans or justifying some horrible thing. Western observers do that way too much. 

Edited February 22, 2022 by 956 Worldwide

[InkaUtexas 25424]

2 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

I wouldn’t read more into this other than that Ukraine is an exception because it’s the one he is talking about right now. The whole idea is fucking laughable because Russia currently has troops stationed without local government consent in Moldova and he had a whole fucking invasion in Georgia and is still there, too. 
 

Don’t parse Putin’s words and messaging too much when he’s announcing plans or justifying some horrible thing. Western observers do that way too much. 

And don't forget the troops in Belarus. They have been there for more than this event.