Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[atomheartbevo 89362]

I'm not going to repost the tweets, but Kyiv Independent had the following

- They had to ban people from the forests around Kyiv until they can get them clear of mines.  Russians were...understandably paranoid about the forests, given their experience in Finland, but thinking about it, holy shit they'll be finding mines in those forests for years to come, given that we are in the muddy season and going forward it'll be hard to see them without a metal detector.  They've already found nearly 7,000 explosive devices (land mines, IEDs, booby traps, etc.) in the Kyiv area.

- Bucha Mayor says almost 90% of dead residents have bullet wounds, not shrapnel

- NATO is talking about sending heavier weapons systems, read of that what you will.

This is interesting

 

 

[atomheartbevo 89362]

 

[atomheartbevo 89362]

Tracksuits

 

[Neonmoon 38127]

21 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

I respect your expertise with O&G industry and won’t quibble with that.   I’m not an expert in the field, but your points line up with my understanding about commodity markets, with the caveat that I also have relatives in O&G and as they say “there’s nothing in the oil business that $100/bbl won’t fix”
 

But your broad assertion about “government policies” undermine the second part of your argument. Our Government is not a uniform actor.  It’s a a mix of local,state, and federal authorities, across a wide range of agencies, covered by numerous and sometimes contradictory laws.  Lightly regulated red states, highly regulated blue states, and purple states all over the place.  Some coastal states more interested in their tourist industry vs others interested in fisheries or O&G production. And one states political views do not invalidate or override another’s in our system. You imply that if “government” would have done the right thing, we could have captured the European market.  Putting aside whether on a price basis we were truly competitive with Russian gas, you’ve basically proven other people’s point:

only a broadly anti free market and anti states right policy that overrode the variable federal nature of our resource and trade policy could have established the US as the primary purveyor of O&G during the boom production years. I.E. “Socialist.”  Regardless of partisan make up of that government, only a National government that to some degree seized or tightly regulated the means of production and carry could have created the market or political environment you described to change the situation we are in vis-a-vis European over reliance on Russian petroleum products.  Approving a pipeline from Canada or loosening some federal land drilling permits wasn’t going to do it.

While US federal governmental policies in general have not done anything to curb production of natural gas in the US (mainly because most natural gas production is on private land) some local state governmental policies have stopped pipeline construction, for example the PennEast pipeline was never constructed due to some knee capping by New Jersey state actions. The Keystone wasn’t a natural gas pipeline. Texas on the other hand hasn’t knee capped any natural gas pipelines to the Permian, in fact, Energy Transfers Gulf Run is finishing construction this year. 

He knows his stuff, but it’s a bit disingenuous to suggest that government policies is stopping the US from supplying Europe with gas. It takes 5 years to build an LNG terminal. It takes years to build a pipeline. Not to mention, these decisions aren’t made in a vacuum. Now there is strategic reason to export more gas to Europe that didn’t exist 5 years ago. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if the PennEast gets revived. 
 

[atomheartbevo 89362]

Tying into the bit about German intelligence intercepting Russian soldiers talking about Bucha

Wagner group was involved

 

[atomheartbevo 89362]

Russia wants sanctions relief?

[Bateshorn 9882]

3 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

While US federal governmental policies in general have not done anything to curb production of natural gas in the US (mainly because most natural gas production is on private land) some local state governmental policies have stopped pipeline construction, for example the PennEast pipeline was never constructed due to some knee capping by New Jersey state actions. The Keystone wasn’t a natural gas pipeline. Texas on the other hand hasn’t knee capped any natural gas pipelines to the Permian, in fact, Energy Transfers Gulf Run is finishing construction this year. 

He knows his stuff, but it’s a bit disingenuous to suggest that government policies is stopping the US from supplying Europe with gas. It takes 5 years to build an LNG terminal. It takes years to build a pipeline. Not to mention, these decisions aren’t made in a vacuum. Now there is strategic reason to export more gas to Europe that didn’t exist 5 years ago. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if the PennEast gets revived. 
 

That’s spot on.  
 

Maryland wants nothing to do with O&G. It’s banned fracking and is very pipeline unfriendly.  Pennsylvania has a hard on for it, although it seems more interested in shipping gas domestically for ethylene production than anything else. Virginia can’t really decide what it wants.  So it sorta sits in inertia. 
 

One of the reddest states in the Union, Florida, is adamantly, ADAMANTLY opposed to exploration and drilling in the Eastern gulf. Without CR -ing this thread, the one thing that could cause DeSantis to lose in a landslide would be to even mention drilling off Florida’s beaches. 

[atomheartbevo 89362]

Nice.

 

[Trey3216 15325]

30 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

While US federal governmental policies in general have not done anything to curb production of natural gas in the US (mainly because most natural gas production is on private land) some local state governmental policies have stopped pipeline construction, for example the PennEast pipeline was never constructed due to some knee capping by New Jersey state actions. The Keystone wasn’t a natural gas pipeline. Texas on the other hand hasn’t knee capped any natural gas pipelines to the Permian, in fact, Energy Transfers Gulf Run is finishing construction this year. 

He knows his stuff, but it’s a bit disingenuous to suggest that government policies is stopping the US from supplying Europe with gas. It takes 5 years to build an LNG terminal. It takes years to build a pipeline. Not to mention, these decisions aren’t made in a vacuum. Now there is strategic reason to export more gas to Europe that didn’t exist 5 years ago. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if the PennEast gets revived. 
 

Not just New Jersey, but New York and Massachusetts as well.  Not building that pipeline results in NatGas costing 2-5x in Boston what it does at Henry Hub during tight supply timelines.  That's because they either buy it from Europe or have to buy LNG shipments from the US.  If instead, there were a pipeline to the northeast, that gas could be delivered more efficiently and strictly from domestic sources.  IN addition, we could have been building LNG terminals in Jersey City, Gloucester, Essex and such.  They'd be exporting to Europe by now based on timelines.  But that ship sailed like the Titanic.  

Edited April 7, 2022 by Trey3216

[Bevo 13493]

1 hour ago, Neonmoon said:

This is badass

 

What was that?

[The Dog 43771]

 

[BabaYaga 15202]

8 hours ago, Nivek said:

Does that road seem a bit thin/shitty?

A T-72 is about 41+ tons.  That turret has to be seven or eight....blown sky high, then straight down with the force many times higher.  It would go through concrete like butter.  Surprised there are aren't any pics of RU guys under one, with their feet sticking out like the witch in the Wizard of Oz (which would be F'ing great to see).

[Bevo 13493]

28 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

That’s spot on.  
 

Maryland wants nothing to do with O&G. It’s banned fracking and is very pipeline unfriendly.  Pennsylvania has a hard on for it, although it seems more interested in shipping gas domestically for ethylene production than anything else. Virginia can’t really decide what it wants.  So it sorta sits in inertia. 
 

Drake Well in Titusville, PA was the first commercial oil well in the US and the first O&G company was Pennsylvania Rock Oil Company of New York. I assume PA is pro O&G because of its history (as well as its ties to blue collar jobs in O&G and steel).

[BabaYaga 15202]

8 minutes ago, Bevo said:

What was that?

Some type of wire guided missile.  So not a Jav.  Maybe a UA Skif?

[Bevo 13493]

1 minute ago, BabaYaga said:

Some type of wire guided missile.  So not a Jav.  Maybe a UA Skif?

Thanks. Whatever it was, that was a hell of an explosion. That tank was obliterated.

[BabaYaga 15202]

3 minutes ago, Bevo said:

Thanks. Whatever it was, that was a hell of an explosion. That tank was obliterated.

Wire guided (like the American TOW) are much larger.  Newer options ride a laser to their target, but as you can see, those old warhorses still pack a punch

[atomheartbevo 89362]

They seem to be getting into the muddy season

 

[atomheartbevo 89362]

 

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3867]

2 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

This is badass

 

Surly law dogs are going to want to warning stickers on NLAWs and Javelins about how far you should be from an RU tank before engaging due to flying turrets.

[Macanudo 12922]

1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

Tracksuits

 

Even the dog looks embarrassed.  

[Brisketexan 104462]

2 minutes ago, Macanudo said:

Even the dog looks embarrassed.  

Dog thanking God he doesn't live in Ukraine where Putin's troops will eat him instead of canned rations from 1961.

[CooterBrown 17874]

3 hours ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

Russia = Mexico w/ nukes and much shittier food

I'd put my money on Mexico taking Russia in a fair fight. 

Hell, the Zetas cartel is probably planning an invasion to take Moscow for themselves as a new business vertical.

[BabaYaga 15202]

5 minutes ago, CooterBrown said:

Hell, the Zetas cartel is probably planning an invasion to take Moscow for themselves as a new business vertical.

Why would they piss off their business partners.......:(

[BabaYaga 15202]

More on the O&G export fiasco that is unfolding

 

[BabaYaga 15202]

Now this is bad ass.  Explains how accurate their shelling has been

 

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

2 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

Now this is bad ass.  Explains how accurate their shelling has been

 

a :52, Ukranian chickens give zero fucks.

[HOOKEM4 5012]

Just now, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

a :52, Ukranian chickens give zero fucks.

The faceplant on top of the vehicle at :47 had me rolling.

[BabaYaga 15202]

Imagine a farmer knowing this is coming and seeing the tank park next to your barn.  

 

AHHHHH FUUUUUCK

[Brisketexan 104462]

4 hours ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

Russia = Mexico w/ nukes and much shittier food

Not wrong.

I've been to one former Soviet Republic (Armenia).  Lots about it was lovely, the people were friendly and thrilled to have people checking out their country, all that stuff.

But in terms of the infrastructure, construction, roads, all that.....within a couple of hours, I told my family "this place is just a Russian Mexico."  A year or so later, the boy and I went to CDMX, and when driving through some of the sketchier areas, he says "dad....now I get what you said when we were in Armenia."

Russia is a shithole.   The nice parts of Moscow and St. Petersburg are deceptive.  The rest of it.....was, is, and likely will always be a shithole.

[Chad Fuck 17503]

3 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

This is badass

 

Man, that's a big ole empty field with nowhere to hide.  Once again, if there's any infantry around, the attacker has nowhere to run.  But RA gonna RA.

What did he attack that thing with? 

[BabaYaga 15202]

Just now, Chad Fuck said:

Man, that's a big ole empty field with nowhere to hide.  Once again, if there's any infantry around, the attacker has nowhere to run.  But RA gonna RA.

What did he attack that thing with? 

I posted earlier that with the visible wire, my guess is it's a Ukrainian "Skif".....similar to our TOW missile.  But who actually knows.  

[Blotto 23418]

11 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

Now this is bad ass.  Explains how accurate their shelling has been

 

warfare is rapidly becoming a world of automated weaponry and death by computer. If I was going to be in the military in this era, I would do everything in my power to be a drone pilot or some shit. Fuck getting handed a rifle and told to hit the front lines. That seems increasingly like a suicide mission.

I realize that the US spends a fuckton to be at the bleeding edge of all this stuff, but what is at the bleeding edge today will be commonplace in 10 years with rapid advancement of technology. The weapons system in that tweet (kvitnik) is Ukrainian. As a species, we sure excel at devising ever more efficient ways of eliminating our species. I can appreciate the technological wizardry of all  this shit, but fuck being a front line grunt in todays battlefields. 

 

[Brisketexan 104462]

2 minutes ago, Blotto said:

warfare is rapidly becoming a world of automated weaponry and death by computer. If I was going to be in the military in this era, I would do everything in my power to be a drone pilot or some shit. Fuck getting handed a rifle and told to hit the front lines. That seems increasingly like a suicide mission.

I realize that the US spends a fuckton to be at the bleeding edge of all this stuff, but what is at the bleeding edge today will be commonplace in 10 years with rapid advancement of technology. The weapons system in that tweet (kvitnik) is Ukrainian. As a species, we sure excel at devising ever more efficient ways of eliminating our species. I can appreciate the technological wizardry of all  this shit, but fuck being a front line grunt in todays battlefields. 

 

^^^

This.  Nowhere to run, nowhere to hide.  The night doesn't matter.  Camo doesn't matter.  Hiding BEHIND something doesn't matter.  Fuck.  That.

[Macanudo 12922]

3 minutes ago, Blotto said:

If I was going to be in the military in this era, I would do everything in my power to be a drone pilot or some shit. Fuck getting handed a rifle and told to hit the front lines. That seems increasingly like a suicide mission.

 

Mobile infantry does the dying, Fleet just does the flying.

Who would have ever thought that Starship Troopers would be prescient?

Edited April 7, 2022 by Macanudo

[BabaYaga 15202]

1 minute ago, Blotto said:

warfare is rapidly becoming a world of automated weaponry and death by computer. If I was going to be in the military in this era, I would do everything in my power to be a drone pilot or some shit. Fuck getting handed a rifle and told to hit the front lines. That seems increasingly like a suicide mission.

I realize that the US spends a fuckton to be at the bleeding edge of all this stuff, but what is at the bleeding edge today will be commonplace in 10 years with rapid advancement of technology. The weapons system in that tweet (kvitnik) is Ukrainian. As a species, we sure excel at devising ever more efficient ways of eliminating our species. I can appreciate the technological wizardry of all  this shit, but fuck being a front line grunt in todays battlefields. 

 

That's always been the case, going back to Greek Fire, the trebuchet, the belt-fed machine gun, satellites, nukes, and now drones.  It's as ever adapting as the ecosystem of a rainforest.  What never ends is the competency and training of the individual using the platform.  This is where the West, and particularly the US surges ahead.  The amount of time/money spent training every facet of it's forces, especially the NCO's

[BabaYaga 15202]

4 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

^^^

This.  Nowhere to run, nowhere to hide.  The night doesn't matter.  Camo doesn't matter.  Hiding BEHIND something doesn't matter.  Fuck.  That.

Remember the written sentiment that the belt-fed machine gun and artillery would be the end of modern warfare as we know it (as written by WWI strategists)?

Historically, warfare is about adapting.  That won't change.  My guess is SOCOM and JSOC will swell.  You will have more and more specialized units vs. the old mass formations.

I can speak from a friend at "the Regiment" @ Benning that they are doing A LOT of training that was formerly done by "The Unit".  As Rangers almost always support the operators, this only makes sense.  But it's a shift in mindset about the needed capabilities of these highly trained soldiers.  But you will ALWAYS need boots on the ground.  That will never change.  My hope is they invest a ton of time/money into those boots.  

[BabaYaga 15202]

More "smart" artillery.  Definitely most cost effective than using munitions on drones.  Just have a small one loiter above the target and laze 

 

[Brisketexan 104462]

1 minute ago, BabaYaga said:

Remember the written sentiment that the belt-fed machine gun and artillery would be the end of modern warfare as we know it (as written by WWI strategists)?

Historically, warfare is about adapting.  That won't change.  My guess is SOCOM and JSOC will swell.  You will have more and more specialized units vs. the old mass formations.

I can speak from a friend at "the Regiment" @ Benning that they are doing A LOT of training that was formerly done by "The Unit".  As Rangers almost always support the operators, this only makes sense.  But it's a shift in mindset about the needed capabilities of these highly trained soldiers.  But you will ALWAYS need boots on the ground.  That will never change.  My hope is they invest a ton of time/money into those boots.  

100% this.  We will always need boots on the ground.  But even against an "overmatched" opponent, a clever opponent with off-the-shelf drones and night vision gear can wreck some shit.  Against an even marginally equipped opponent?  It can get even more dicey.

To succeed, it will have to be a fully combined and coordinated operation -- armor, infantry, air cover, drones, anti-drone defenses, etc. etc.

[Blotto 23418]

4 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

But you will ALWAYS need boots on the ground.

kidding.....sort of

[BabaYaga 15202]

2 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

100% this.  We will always need boots on the ground.  But even against an "overmatched" opponent, a clever opponent with off-the-shelf drones and night vision gear can wreck some shit.  Against an even marginally equipped opponent?  It can get even more dicey.

To succeed, it will have to be a fully combined and coordinated operation -- armor, infantry, air cover, drones, anti-drone defenses, etc. etc.

Good friend.  His older brother (now retired) was an SF guy out of Bragg.  At a wedding, we got to talking and I never forget what he said when I asked him (prompted by his talk of working with SF guys all over the world from other nations) what the "difference" was with the efficacy of US spec ops dudes?

He said simple:  time and money.  The US spends more time and money training their guys than anyone else.  Many are "professional" soldiers that spend decades honing their craft.  You can't easily replicate that.  

*and he did say don't sleep on many of our allies SF guys.  He said they are all top notch, because they follow the same script - which was not always the case.

[Brisketexan 104462]

1 minute ago, BabaYaga said:

*and he did say don't sleep on many of our allies SF guys.  He said they are all top notch, because they follow the same script - which was not always the case.

I think we're seeing the proof in the pudding in Ukraine, and not just as to SF.  The US put in a lot of effort over the past several years training the UKA.  And the UKA was an eager and willing student.

The performance of the UKA v. Russia thus far is a hell of an advertisement for "get your guys trained by the US."  Our allies are surely all taking notice....as are some enemies.

[Macanudo 12922]

9 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

I can speak from a friend at "the Regiment" @ Benning 

Ask him what color is the boathouse at Benning.   Make sure he's the real deal and not some poser who will set up an ambush where the same side is shooting at each other from opposite sides of the road.

[InkaUtexas 25423]

2 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Tracksuits

 

No three stripes so must be fake.

[BabaYaga 15202]

2 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

I think we're seeing the proof in the pudding in Ukraine, and not just as to SF.  The US put in a lot of effort over the past several years training the UKA.  And the UKA was an eager and willing student.

The performance of the UKA v. Russia thus far is a hell of an advertisement for "get your guys trained by the US."  Our allies are surely all taking notice....as are some enemies.

Fighting in your own back yard.  They also have the luxury of time.  There was an old Afghan saying I read once about all these invasions over the years from the British, the Russians, and us.

"They have all the clocks, but we have all the time"

If they can bleed Russia out, deplete and demoralize them, this is the path.  

[BabaYaga 15202]

2 minutes ago, Macanudo said:

Ask him what color is the boathouse at Benning.   Make sure he's the real deal and not some poser who will set up an ambush where the same side is shooting at each other from opposite sides of the road.

Good point.  It's been a few years, but I was watching a podcast the other day and it said the same:  the capabilities of the Regiment today is amazing...which is why it's such a feeder for CAG.  

I was also surprised that now they have their own dedicated Tier I unit - Range reconnaissance.  Never heard of them before?

[SydneyCarton 47809]

18 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Peter Zeihan (former Stratfor guy here in Austin, writes on geopolitical issues, mainly focused on demographics/depopulation, etc.) has been beating this drum for a while, and in fact he said after the Crimea annexation that Russia would formally invade Ukraine within 8 years because of demographic problems, because they would run out of manpower.

Anyways, he's had a couple of long interviews a few weeks ago where he covers a lot of stuff around Ukraine/Russia/China, that I will post below and he seems to be one of the few talking not just about agricultural products such as grains in Ukraine and Russia being impacted (in terms of shipping elsewhere etc.), but he's talking about the problems that all of this is causing with regards to fertilizer production, and how because of the war and because of problems within China (that have nothing to do with the war), we maybe facing a situation where we don't have enough fertilizer going forward to help keep the world's agriculture churning along.

@Brisketexan would like him, because he's talked about how if Putin had rolled through Ukraine, he might have made a play for other parts of Eastern Europe including the threats of nuclear weapons, but he's very bullish on America/North America not facing the problems that Russia and China are facing both in terms of demographics and and in terms of agricultural production.

Yeah, this is very dry, and the interviewer is one of those business bros (who didn't understand Ukraine and was schooled by Peter), but fertilizer disruptions caused by the war in Ukraine could have a massive impact on the world in general going forward.

You can just listen to this - no need to watch it, and it's interesting as while I don't agree with everything he says, he makes an interesting point that this is the last battle/war of the Cold War, and that Russia is fucked within two generations.

 

Ive gotta say, this video was fucking fantastic. Fantastic. 

8 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

 

And his sons are 27 and 18, so you won't have to worry about raising his kids.

You wont be raising his kids because if they weren't already enlisted, they've been recently conscripted. 

3 hours ago, Bateshorn said:

I respect your expertise with O&G industry and won’t quibble with that.   I’m not an expert in the field, but your points line up with my understanding about commodity markets, with the caveat that I also have relatives in O&G and as they say “there’s nothing in the oil business that $100/bbl won’t fix”
 

But your broad assertion about “government policies” undermine the second part of your argument. Our Government is not a uniform actor.  It’s a a mix of local,state, and federal authorities, across a wide range of agencies, covered by numerous and sometimes contradictory laws.  Lightly regulated red states, highly regulated blue states, and purple states all over the place.  Some coastal states more interested in their tourist industry vs others interested in fisheries or O&G production. And one states political views do not invalidate or override another’s in our system. You imply that if “government” would have done the right thing, we could have captured the European market.  Putting aside whether on a price basis we were truly competitive with Russian gas, you’ve basically proven other people’s point:

only a broadly anti free market and anti states right policy that overrode the variable federal nature of our resource and trade policy could have established the US as the primary purveyor of O&G during the boom production years. I.E. “Socialist.”  Regardless of partisan make up of that government, only a National government that to some degree seized or tightly regulated the means of production and carry could have created the market or political environment you described to change the situation we are in vis-a-vis European over reliance on Russian petroleum products.  Approving a pipeline from Canada or loosening some federal land drilling permits wasn’t going to do it.

Great post. 

[Macanudo 12922]

Just now, BabaYaga said:

Good point.  It's been a few years, but I was watching a podcast the other day and it said the same:  the capabilities of the Regiment today is amazing...which is why it's such a feeder for CAG.  

I was also surprised that now they have their own dedicated Tier I unit - Range reconnaissance.  Never heard of them before?

We learned A LOT of lessons over the past 30 years in Iraq and especially Afghanistan about how to infiltrate, move, support and fight with small groups.  Then we got see how Russian doctrine is still tied to plodding forward with 20th century tactics in Georgia, Chechnya, Ukraine, etc.

This is all stuff we should have learned after Vietnam.  The silver lining as has been pointed out time and again is our NCO corps and the willingness of our officers to listen and learn from them.   The best newbie platoon leader is the one who listens to his E-5s and E-6s who currently most likely have a fair amount of time in country.   That is going to change, for the good and bad within the next 8-10 years.  

[BabaYaga 15202]

7 minutes ago, Macanudo said:

Then we got see how Russian doctrine is still tied to plodding forward with 20th century tactics in Georgia, Chechnya, Ukraine, etc.

This is why I feel almost certain that we have a ton of ninjas in Ukraine soaking up all they can on RU capabilities, equipment, tactics, etc.  

[InkaUtexas 25423]

About time. 

BREAKINGRussia suspended from UN Human Rights Council

The General Assembly of the United Nations has just voted to suspend Russia from its Human Rights Council during a session in New York. 

It follows allegations of war crimes by Kremlin troops in Ukraine. 

Before votes were cast, Ukraine’s ambassador to the UN Sergiy Kyslytsya accused Russia of “horrific” abuses – raising the issue of alleged civilian killings in the city of Bucha. 

Russia’s own representative Gennady Kuzmin condemned the vote, and other nations including North Korea and Syria rallied behind him.

[Brisketexan 104462]

Just now, InkaUtexas said:

About time. 

BREAKINGRussia suspended from UN Human Rights Council

The General Assembly of the United Nations has just voted to suspend Russia from its Human Rights Council during a session in New York. 

It follows allegations of war crimes by Kremlin troops in Ukraine. 

Before votes were cast, Ukraine’s ambassador to the UN Sergiy Kyslytsya accused Russia of “horrific” abuses – raising the issue of alleged civilian killings in the city of Bucha. 

Russia’s own representative Gennady Kuzmin condemned the vote, and other nations including North Korea and Syria rallied behind him.

Yes.....when your cheerleading squad is....Syria and North Korea, you are DEFINITELY on the right side of things.