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Eastwood

By Eastwood
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AUS-97HORN
AUS-97HORN

For the love of Christ woman,  stop posting the same fucking thing every 20 mins just to make your neurotic self feel better.     Bring something useful to the thread other than your inane babbli

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InkaUtexas
InkaUtexas

I volunteered today. Log/Admin role to replace people for 30-60 days. The operation is in the west, or should the Orcs win will be pulled back behind the NATO wall. Either way the humanitarian effort

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 106949

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3 minutes ago, texasdago said:

Why why why does A N Y O N E believe that Russia is ever going to open up humanitarian corridors?  Why does anyone believe anything that comes out of their mouth.  

Oh, this time they really mean it...

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Correct.  There is only one way to negotiate with Russia:

8b003ce0-1cbb-4c10-bf25-8f00ad45cbb9_tex

Bullies understand force.  Everything else might as well be Esperanto.

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1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

We ought to just send back a letter listing all of the Russian equipment the UA has captured and is now using, and say "You first.  Sincerely, 'Merica."

Fucking LULZ at the dip note (“note verbale” in fancy diplomatic speak).  This is how you communicate either ticky tack bureaucratic stuff or when shit has just completely been broken. 
 

“The Embassy of the Russian Federation presents its compliments to the Department of State of the United States of America. 
 

The Embassy has the honor to request the Department to knock the fuck off with the sending of weapons to Ukraine. For real, we are super pissed now. 

The Embassy avails itself of the opportunity to renew to the Department the assurances of its highest consideration.” 

 

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Laxtonto

Laxtonto 13321

Posted
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1 minute ago, BabaYaga said:

Hate to see it....

 

So is this drone footage or is this security footage? Regardless it is interesting because somehow someone knew where to find it to push it on the internet. I doubt that this came from a Russian state source.

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5 minutes ago, Chad Fuck said:

Just coming to post this.  Seems like exactly the kind of thing the FSB would do.  Casus Belli to start launching attacks from Transnistria.  What's Moldova going to do about it anyhow?

 

I don’t thin Russia has the capacity to manage an offensive in Moldova, I really don’t.  They’d have to airlift any troops and equipment in there that they planned to use for a push outside of Transdnistria.  We’ve seen their strategic airlift capability in Kazakhstan (remember that? Wild, right, that it happened.)  That’s fine for a police action in a country you have an invitation to, not so much a major offensive into even a small, poor nation like Moldova.

I can see them flying in troops and equipment and deliberately using some maskirovka on what/how much is there.  Keep the Ukrainians off balance and force them to stay somewhat deployed along that border, to protect Odesa and the rear.  Sort of a fleet in being but on land. They can also ward off any Modolvan wild hare ideas of reunification while Ukraine is off balance. 

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Chad Fuck

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1 minute ago, 956 Worldwide said:

I don’t thin Russia has the capacity to manage an offensive in Moldova, I really don’t.  They’d have to airlift any troops and equipment in there that they planned to use for a push outside of Transdnistria.  We’ve seen their strategic airlift capability in Kazakhstan (remember that? Wild, right, that it happened.)  That’s fine for a police action in a country you have an invitation to, not so much a major offensive into even a small, poor nation like Moldova.

I can see them flying in troops and equipment and deliberately using some maskirovka on what/how much is there.  Keep the Ukrainians off balance and force them to stay somewhat deployed along that border, to protect Odesa and the rear.  Sort of a fleet in being but on land. They can also ward off any Modolvan wild hare ideas of reunification while Ukraine is off balance. 

Agreed, they can't do anything with the 1500 troops stationed there but cause trouble.  I'd love to see Russia try and fly some Il-76s full of troops that direction.  I know how that'd wind up.  

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Captainant

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SIAP, but gun jesus put out a pretty interesting compare/contrast between russia's winter war with Finland and the current Ukrainian war

TL:DR - russia is making many of the same strategic mistakes that led to Finland being able to (just barely) hold them off. Current event-wise, Ukraine is significantly better equipped and supported. If you've got a spare half hour, its a really interesting military history analysis

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MillerEP

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https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/25/sweden-and-finland-agree-to-submit-nato-applications

Sweden and Finland agree to submit Nato applications, say reports
Two countries could apply for membership simultaneously as soon as mid-May, according to reports

 

^Mid-May? No please do it on May 9th, that'll be the ultimate FU move.

 

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8 minutes ago, Captainant said:

SIAP, but gun jesus put out a pretty interesting compare/contrast between russia's winter war with Finland and the current Ukrainian war

TL:DR - russia is making many of the same strategic mistakes that led to Finland being able to (just barely) hold them off. Current event-wise, Ukraine is significantly better equipped and supported. If you've got a spare half hour, its a really interesting military history analysis

 

8 minutes ago, Captainant said:

SIAP, but gun jesus put out a pretty interesting compare/contrast between russia's winter war with Finland and the current Ukrainian war

TL:DR - russia is making many of the same strategic mistakes that led to Finland being able to (just barely) hold them off. Current event-wise, Ukraine is significantly better equipped and supported. If you've got a spare half hour, its a really interesting military history analysis

Anyone who doubts the efficacy of Lend-Lease and tons of Allied materiel (most importantly- logistical, GMC and Studebaker trucks) for Soviet victory in WWII needs to look at this war with Ukraine. Basically, Ukraine is playing the role of USSR in 1941 and that’s why they’re hanging on. And Russia still hasn’t fucking learned their lessons. 

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8 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/25/sweden-and-finland-agree-to-submit-nato-applications

Sweden and Finland agree to submit Nato applications, say reports
Two countries could apply for membership simultaneously as soon as mid-May, according to reports

 

^Mid-May? No please do it on May 9th, that'll be the ultimate FU move.

 

The main result of this war appears to be that NATO will close our strategic hot blonde gap with Russia. 

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Captainant

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1 minute ago, 956 Worldwide said:

 

Anyone who doubts the efficacy of Lend-Lease and tons of Allied materiel (most importantly- logistical, GMC and Studebaker trucks) for Soviet victory in WWII needs to look at this war with Ukraine. Basically, Ukraine is playing the role of USSR in 1941 and that’s why they’re hanging on. And Russia still hasn’t fucking learned their lessons. 

IMO the historical allegory breaks down pretty quick because the USSR and Ukraine have very little in common socially or politically, and the former was both a defender AND an invader whereas Ukraine is solely a defender in their home territory. I think in terms of pure conflict, the Finland <-> Ukraine comparison is very apt. Especially because it was the russian army attacking in both cases despite being hamstrung by: their own operational inefficiencies, lack of comms, and over-reliance on road networks that gave the defenders natural killzones.

Ukraine is damn near copying the Finnish playbook, just with modern and top-tier equipment. And I don't think they're willing to give up ~10% of their landmass just to get an uneasy peace, since they've already done that once and are fighting to get it back

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Chad Fuck

Chad Fuck 18157

Posted
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14 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

 

Anyone who doubts the efficacy of Lend-Lease and tons of Allied materiel (most importantly- logistical, GMC and Studebaker trucks) for Soviet victory in WWII needs to look at this war with Ukraine. Basically, Ukraine is playing the role of USSR in 1941 and that’s why they’re hanging on. And Russia still hasn’t fucking learned their lessons. 

Also of note, one of the reasons that Finland was forced to capitulate is because the western powers couldn't get them the weapons they needed swiftly and in quantity.  Instead, we hesitatingly gave Finland a wide variety (thus complicating supply chains) of second line equipment.  So we gave them stuff in dribs and drabs that wasn't that great anyhow.  Complete opposite from how we're reacting now.  Lots of quality weapons as fast as we can get them shipped.  

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 106949

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34 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

I don’t thin Russia has the capacity to manage an offensive in Moldova, I really don’t.  They’d have to airlift any troops and equipment in there that they planned to use for a push outside of Transdnistria.  We’ve seen their strategic airlift capability in Kazakhstan (remember that? Wild, right, that it happened.)  That’s fine for a police action in a country you have an invitation to, not so much a major offensive into even a small, poor nation like Moldova.

I can see them flying in troops and equipment and deliberately using some maskirovka on what/how much is there.  Keep the Ukrainians off balance and force them to stay somewhat deployed along that border, to protect Odesa and the rear.  Sort of a fleet in being but on land. They can also ward off any Modolvan wild hare ideas of reunification while Ukraine is off balance. 

This.

Shit, I wish they WOULD try something with their 1500 troops.  Ukraine has shown that killing 1500 Russian troops is a 3 day job.  Have at it, Moldova.  Would you like some javelins?  I think we have some nearby.

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The Dog

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9 minutes ago, Chad Fuck said:

Also of note, one of the reasons that Finland was forced to capitulate is because the western powers couldn't get them the weapons they needed swiftly and in quantity.  Instead, we hesitatingly gave Finland a wide variety (thus complicating supply chains) of second line equipment.  So we gave them stuff in dribs and drabs that wasn't that great anyhow.  Complete opposite from how we're reacting now.  Lots of quality weapons as fast as we can get them shipped.  

 

Covers the winter war as well as WW2. Finland was in a weird situation so they ended up siding with Nazi Germany against the Soviets - "enemy of my enemy is my friend" situation. 

I think it's easy for Finland to believe that Putin wants to take Finland as well some day so moving to NATO now makes a lot of sense for their own security. 

Russia/USSR hasn't been a good neighbor to anyone over the years.

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ABSR

ABSR 5370

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1 hour ago, Laxtonto said:

So is this drone footage or is this security footage? Regardless it is interesting because somehow someone knew where to find it to push it on the internet. I doubt that this came from a Russian state source.

From what I have read it likely did, as this appears to be a Russian false flag operation that was mentioned beforehand.

If you look where it happened, which is not close to Ukraine and not a direct military target that supports the war, and see that it impacts the flow of oil to Europe, seems odd that Ukraine would target it.   It let’s Russia tell it’s people no one is safe anywhere and we are under attack, and let’s Russia show a decreased supply of oil to Europe and blame the Ukrainians.  “How can you support them if they will attack your oil supplies!”

Really seems to support Russian political narrative without much help to Ukraine war effort.   Hmmmmm

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12 minutes ago, ABSR said:

From what I have read it likely did, as this appears to be a Russian false flag operation that was mentioned beforehand.

If you look where it happened, which is not close to Ukraine and not a direct military target that supports the war, and see that it impacts the flow of oil to Europe, seems odd that Ukraine would target it.   It let’s Russia tell it’s people no one is safe anywhere and we are under attack, and let’s Russia show a decreased supply of oil to Europe and blame the Ukrainians.  “How can you support them if they will attack your oil supplies!”

Really seems to support Russian political narrative without much help to Ukraine war effort.   Hmmmmm

Bryansk is super close to Ukraine. It’s one of the cities that was a rally point for the initial push to Chernihiv. It’s far to early to ascribe responsibility for sure but blowing up something extremely smoky and flammable is a good way to show the locals that they don’t get to just sit this out. 

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15699

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17 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

 

Anyone who doubts the efficacy of Lend-Lease and tons of Allied materiel (most importantly- logistical, GMC and Studebaker trucks) for Soviet victory in WWII needs to look at this war with Ukraine. Basically, Ukraine is playing the role of USSR in 1941 and that’s why they’re hanging on. And Russia still hasn’t fucking learned their lessons. 

I have to disagree with your parenthetical, while agreeing with your overall point.

The materiel supplied by the United States under Lend-Lease wasn't most importantly the trucks.  Those were critical.  Don't get me wrong.  But there's kind of this historical idea in the United States that what we sent them was primarily GMCs and Studebakers, and that's just not right.

When Germany attacked in 1941, it quickly captured the vast majority of Russia's tanks.  It also captured most of Russia's air force.  And, most importantly, it captured the areas that manufactured the tanks and airplanes and the areas that produced the raw materials necessary to build them.  So in 1941 and 1941. we were supplying massive numbers of fighter aircraft (P-39s) and tanks (primarily M3s in 1941, later M4s).  But it wasn't just that.  It was also massive amounts of ammunition, fuel, food, and even uniforms and boots.  Rationing in the United States wasn't needed to supply the American war effort; it was needed entirely to support the Soviet war effort.

And even after they got new factories up and running, they were using American raw materials and American intellectual property.  The T34 was built with American steel on an American chassis.  It was fueled with American diesel brought on American trucks.  It was crewed by men who ate Spam and wore M-42 Service Shoes.

The Soviet Union downplayed the role of Lend-Lease, even during the war.  And inside Russia, virtually nobody has any knowledge of the American contribution to the Soviet war effort.  The end result is that you have three generations of Soviet/Russian commanders who don't understand logistics, they actively deny its importance.  But even in the West, the Soviet effort was successful in downplaying Lend-Lease as nothing more than a bunch of Studebakers.  And that's very, very wrong.

1 hour ago, ShaggyBevo RIP said:

Another day another chemical plant on fire. Bryansk this time. 

zfpq2b61rov81.jpg?width=720&format=pjpg&

So it now appears that there's something going on, and that these aren't isolated accidents.  And there are a handful of possibilities, none of which are mutually exclusive:

1) Ukrainian SOF--this makes some sense that the Ukrainians would be able to infiltrate special forces into Russia to blow shit up.  It'd actually be surprising if they weren't able to do so.  The Ukrainians speak the language, they wouldn't be recognizable physically or culturally.  They should be able to move about Russia relatively freely.

2) Russian opposition--I don't know how much opposition there is in Russia, but this was certainly an issue in Belarus (as detailed in the New York Times story yesterday).  To the extent there is Russian opposition that is willing to sabotage the war effort, they could be coordinating with Ukrainian SOF.

3) Western SOF--This strikes me as less likely.  But at the same time, I also wonder what assets we have in Russia pre-positioned for partisan/sabotage activity (i.e., sleepers).  And as kind of discussed by Secretary Austin yesterday, we're really leaving it out on the field right now.  So if we have those covert assets available, this might be the time when we've decided to use them.

4) Cyberattacks--a lot of these fires/explosions look like something that could have been caused by a cyberattack.  Close the wrong valve and open another, and shit in a chemical plant can go "boom" in a real hurry.  Those could be coordinated by Western countries on a covert basis.  But the Ukrainians are themselves very capable of doing it.

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10 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

I have to disagree with your parenthetical, while agreeing with your overall point.

The materiel supplied by the United States under Lend-Lease wasn't most importantly the trucks.  Those were critical.  Don't get me wrong.  But there's kind of this historical idea in the United States that what we sent them was primarily GMCs and Studebakers, and that's just not right.

When Germany attacked in 1941, it quickly captured the vast majority of Russia's tanks.  It also captured most of Russia's air force.  And, most importantly, it captured the areas that manufactured the tanks and airplanes and the areas that produced the raw materials necessary to build them.  So in 1941 and 1941. we were supplying massive numbers of fighter aircraft (P-39s) and tanks (primarily M3s in 1941, later M4s).  But it wasn't just that.  It was also massive amounts of ammunition, fuel, food, and even uniforms and boots.  Rationing in the United States wasn't needed to supply the American war effort; it was needed entirely to support the Soviet war effort.

And even after they got new factories up and running, they were using American raw materials and American intellectual property.  The T34 was built with American steel on an American chassis.  It was fueled with American diesel brought on American trucks.  It was crewed by men who ate Spam and wore M-42 Service Shoes.

The Soviet Union downplayed the role of Lend-Lease, even during the war.  And inside Russia, virtually nobody has any knowledge of the American contribution to the Soviet war effort.  The end result is that you have three generations of Soviet/Russian commanders who don't understand logistics, they actively deny its importance.  But even in the West, the Soviet effort was successful in downplaying Lend-Lease as nothing more than a bunch of Studebakers.  And that's very, very wrong.

So it now appears that there's something going on, and that these aren't isolated accidents.  And there are a handful of possibilities, none of which are mutually exclusive:

1) Ukrainian SOF--this makes some sense that the Ukrainians would be able to infiltrate special forces into Russia to blow shit up.  It'd actually be surprising if they weren't able to do so.  The Ukrainians speak the language, they wouldn't be recognizable physically or culturally.  They should be able to move about Russia relatively freely.

2) Russian opposition--I don't know how much opposition there is in Russia, but this was certainly an issue in Belarus (as detailed in the New York Times story yesterday).  To the extent there is Russian opposition that is willing to sabotage the war effort, they could be coordinating with Ukrainian SOF.

3) Western SOF--This strikes me as less likely.  But at the same time, I also wonder what assets we have in Russia pre-positioned for partisan/sabotage activity (i.e., sleepers).  And as kind of discussed by Secretary Austin yesterday, we're really leaving it out on the field right now.  So if we have those covert assets available, this might be the time when we've decided to use them.

4) Cyberattacks--a lot of these fires/explosions look like something that could have been caused by a cyberattack.  Close the wrong valve and open another, and shit in a chemical plant can go "boom" in a real hurry.  Those could be coordinated by Western countries on a covert basis.  But the Ukrainians are themselves very capable of doing it.

I’ll see your objection and double down.  Yes, we provided lots of Airacobras and tanks, yes we provided plenty of ammo. But the raw numbers support me: we provided over 400,000 jeeps and trucks as compared to just over 10,000 combat vehicles. We provided millions of tons of food.  We provided almost as many flatbed rail cars as we did combat vehicles, tanks included. And we did things like ship entire factories and machinery so they could produce more.

This isn’t looking down my nose at the combat equipment they got, it’s just an acknowledgement that the real thumb on the scale was in food and trucks and rail cars and machine tooling. And every bit we gave them was one more T-34 that got their attention. This isn’t at all a knock on lend-lease. Trucks and tires and flatbed rail cars are how you fucking win wars, as Russia is finding out. 

Edited by 956 Worldwide
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ABSR

ABSR 5370

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24 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Bryansk is super close to Ukraine. It’s one of the cities that was a rally point for the initial push to Chernihiv. It’s far to early to ascribe responsibility for sure but blowing up something extremely smoky and flammable is a good way to show the locals that they don’t get to just sit this out. 

Too late to edit, but my ability to read maps obviously needs work.

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