Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[dimyh 1874]

Ukrainian drone in action

Knock knock

Who's there?

Ka

Ka who?

KA-BOOM!

 

[InkaUtexas 26011]

Going through my gear tonight. I think I can outfit 1 kit for sure. Maybe a good start on a second. Just in case anyone has some extra medical gear around the house. 

 

[dimyh 1874]

Anyone have some projections on the financial stability for both Russia and Ukrain? As this meanders along it may be more of an economic attrition that decides this war. Below article covers some of the pending default details for RU. The narrowly avoided default at the start of May but has another deadline coming up on the 25th. What are the implications if they do default? How soon would that impact the purchasing power of the avg citizen?

Putin has been walking a tightrope, still trying to ride out a losing ticket, desperately trying to reinforce losses without committing to a full mobilization. He's afraid of public sentiment shifting on him, he can control the mobilization narrative but he can't indefinitely control the economic plunge.

Plus with all of the focus on Russia I'm still concerned about Ukraine's finances. Sure they are getting plenty of military assistance but how long can they sustain their economy during a total war? If it becomes a game of economic chicken who balks first?

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/10/russia-still-faces-high-default-probability-despite-payment-analysts-say.html

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3868]

14 minutes ago, dimyh said:

Anyone have some projections on the financial stability for both Russia and Ukrain? As this meanders along it may be more of an economic attrition that decides this war. Below article covers some of the pending default details for RU. The narrowly avoided default at the start of May but has another deadline coming up on the 25th. What are the implications if they do default? How soon would that impact the purchasing power of the avg citizen?

Putin has been walking a tightrope, still trying to ride out a losing ticket, desperately trying to reinforce losses without committing to a full mobilization. He's afraid of public sentiment shifting on him, he can control the mobilization narrative but he can't indefinitely control the economic plunge.

Plus with all of the focus on Russia I'm still concerned about Ukraine's finances. Sure they are getting plenty of military assistance but how long can they sustain their economy during a total war? If it becomes a game of economic chicken who balks first?

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/10/russia-still-faces-high-default-probability-despite-payment-analysts-say.html

Ukraine is going to have billion$ pumped into the economy via a Marshall Plan type aid for the rebuilding. Russia? Not so much.

Edited May 16, 2022 by ShaggyBevo RIP

[The Dog 44068]

 

[686 3450]

We straightened Turkey out:

“NATO and the United States said on Sunday they were confident Turkey would not hold up membership of Finland and Sweden in the Western military alliance, as the two Nordic states took firm steps to join in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.”

http:// https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/nato-expects-turkey-not-hold-up-finland-sweden-membership-bids-2022-05-15/

[atomheartbevo 89747]

11 minutes ago, dimyh said:

Anyone have some projections on the financial stability for both Russia and Ukrain? As this meanders along it may be more of an economic attrition that decides this war.

The West/US/EU/etc. are more than happy to prop up Ukraine financially in the process of bleeding Russia dry, and Russia doesn't have anybody willing to do that for them (not to mention that the West is more than happy to send a shitload of military hardware to Ukraine as well).

And Western Europe wants to see Ukraine come out of this successfully, and then help build up Ukraine's oil & gas infrastructure to fully get off of Russia's.

Again, don't agree with everything Peter Zeihan says, but he's also been talking about how it would be hard for Russia to go to a full-on war footing because of the manpower thing.  While they have 140 million people or so, their demographics are really fucked up, and as he and others have said, the actual numbers of young males of military age may be a lot lower than everybody thinks, simply because Russia constantly lies about stuff they want to cover up.   This would be an area that Russia would definitely lie about for strategic/paranoia reasons.  

Why that's important is that between the hundreds of thousands of younger folks who have left Russia since February, if Putin has to start trying to conscript young men, it really starts to hammer at the economy because the amount of people aging out of the workforce/dying off/etc. is not even close to being replaced, even before the exodus that started in February, and so every conscript is potentially somebody not working in a factory or some other productive job, and over time that's really bad.

[atomheartbevo 89747]

21 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Is Blinken in Berlin to talk Turkey?

6 minutes ago, 686 said:

We straightened Turkey out:

“NATO and the United States said on Sunday they were confident Turkey would not hold up membership of Finland and Sweden in the Western military alliance, as the two Nordic states took firm steps to join in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.”

http:// https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/nato-expects-turkey-not-hold-up-finland-sweden-membership-bids-2022-05-15/

Sounds like it.

Quote

Turkey, which had surprised its allies in recent days by saying it had reservations about Finnish and Swedish membership, laid out its demands on Sunday on the sidelines of a meeting of foreign ministers in Berlin. Ankara said it wanted the Nordic countries to halt support for Kurdish militant groups present on their territory, and lift bans on some sales of arms to Turkey.

I'm wondering if Turkey is going to dump some of their Russian hardware for American.  Also, there was this article month ago about Turkey wanting 40 more F-16s and 80 modernization kits for existing fighters (https://www.reuters.com/world/us-says-potential-f-16-sale-turkey-would-serve-us-interests-nato-letter-2022-04-06/).

Or hell, perhaps the US might open them up to the F-35 program.

And I'm also wondering if a bunch of countries are lining up to buy some of the stuff Turkey is making.  Ukraine has put out quite the highlight reel for Turkish drone sales alone.

[atomheartbevo 89747]

Putin playing 6D Chess

https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/neutral-switzerland-leans-closer-nato-response-russia-2022-05-15/

Quote

Switzerland's fabled neutral status is about to face its biggest test in decades, with the defence ministry tilting closer to Western military powers in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

The defence ministry is drawing up a report on security options that include joint military exercises with NATO countries and "backfilling" munitions, Paelvi Pulli, head of security policy at the Swiss defence ministry told Reuters.

Quote

"Ultimately, there could be changes in the way neutrality is interpreted," Pulli said in an interview last week. On a trip to Washington this week, Defence Minister Viola Amherd said Switzerland should work more closely with the U.S.-led military alliance, but not join it, Swiss media reported.

They won't join NATO (Russians would have to fight through NATO to get to the Swiss), but it's still interesting that the Swiss are talking about this publicly.

[The Dog 44068]

Shits about to get real bad for Ivan if they’re culminating:

 

[Auto Driller 2506]

This was such a shitty strategic decision by Putin. All-time bad.

[Slacks 6825]

3 hours ago, Deej said:

They didn't drop a helicopter into the sunroof.

[686 3450]

The West/US/EU/etc. are more than happy to prop up Ukraine financially in the process of bleeding Russia dry, and Russia doesn't have anybody willing to do that for them (not to mention that the West is more than happy to send a shitload of military hardware to Ukraine as well).
And Western Europe wants to see Ukraine come out of this successfully, and then help build up Ukraine's oil & gas infrastructure to fully get off of Russia's.
Again, don't agree with everything Peter Zeihan says, but he's also been talking about how it would be hard for Russia to go to a full-on war footing because of the manpower thing.  While they have 140 million people or so, their demographics are really fucked up, and as he and others have said, the actual numbers of young males of military age may be a lot lower than everybody thinks, simply because Russia constantly lies about stuff they want to cover up.   This would be an area that Russia would definitely lie about for strategic/paranoia reasons.  
Why that's important is that between the hundreds of thousands of younger folks who have left Russia since February, if Putin has to start trying to conscript young men, it really starts to hammer at the economy because the amount of people aging out of the workforce/dying off/etc. is not even close to being replaced, even before the exodus that started in February, and so every conscript is potentially somebody not working in a factory or some other productive job, and over time that's really bad.

Agree, I was just going to use Zeihan’s descriptor “FUCKED!!!111!!” to describe Russia’s economic future under Putin. The thing Zeihan doesn’t allow for much in his analysis is pivoting/adaptation/improvisation of people to their current situation. I think Russia will be miserable until Putin is gone, then maybe a few more years of one more hanger-on to KGB paranoia/lying/distopian dictator (seems like Medvedev is auditioning to resume his prior role) and then it’s mini-revolution time, at which point things could get better.

The article I posted earlier today hit on this, if Russia would just be publicly contrite, own this shit, and show the world it’s never going to happen again by de-nuclearizing and downsizing their armed forces to a defensive only operation (following the Germany/Japan model) I think the world will be happy to resume extracting natural resources from them.

[686 3450]

Putin playing 6D Chess
https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/neutral-switzerland-leans-closer-nato-response-russia-2022-05-15/

Switzerland's fabled neutral status is about to face its biggest test in decades, with the defence ministry tilting closer to Western military powers in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
The defence ministry is drawing up a report on security options that include joint military exercises with NATO countries and "backfilling" munitions, Paelvi Pulli, head of security policy at the Swiss defence ministry told Reuters.

"Ultimately, there could be changes in the way neutrality is interpreted," Pulli said in an interview last week. On a trip to Washington this week, Defence Minister Viola Amherd said Switzerland should work more closely with the U.S.-led military alliance, but not join it, Swiss media reported.

At this point the Swiss and Austrians are “Free Riders” on NATO to use the economic description, and I think Switzerland at least is starting to recognize that and talk about maybe addressing the issue

[dimyh 1874]

6 minutes ago, 686 said:

Agree, I was just going to use Zeihan’s descriptor “FUCKED!!!111!!” to describe Russia’s economic future under Putin. The thing Zeihan doesn’t allow for much in his analysis is pivoting/adaptation/improvisation of people to their current situation. I think Russia will be miserable until Putin is gone, then maybe a few more years of one more hanger-on to KGB paranoia/lying/distopian dictator (seems like Medvedev is auditioning to resume his prior role) and then it’s mini-revolution time, at which point things could get better.

The article I posted earlier today hit on this, if Russia would just be publicly contrite, own this shit, and show the world it’s never going to happen again by de-nuclearizing and downsizing their armed forces to a defensive only operation (following the Germany/Japan model) I think the world will be happy to resume extracting natural resources from them.

Agreed if we could get a coup with a full pivot from this dinosaur mentality exhibited by Tyrantsaurus Vlad then there would be a willingness to open up for (limited) western business. #1 avg Ruskie has got to understand the west is not their enemy. We never wanted to invade, just stop fucking shit up with everyone else. We just want to live in a world where we can sponsor both Ukrainian tractors and Russian cam girls. Is that so wrong to want the best of both worlds?

[dimyh 1874]

44 minutes ago, ShaggyBevo RIP said:

Ukraine is going to have billion$ pumped into the economy via a Marshall Plan type aid for the rebuilding. Russia? Not so much.

Understood once this is over that we will be adding in the lion share to rebuild but any ideas on their current monthly operational costs? And how much are we floating them right now?

[atomheartbevo 89747]

17 minutes ago, dimyh said:

Agreed if we could get a coup with a full pivot from this dinosaur mentality exhibited by Tyrantsaurus Vlad then there would be a willingness to open up for (limited) western business. #1 avg Ruskie has got to understand the west is not their enemy. We never wanted to invade, just stop fucking shit up with everyone else. We just want to live in a world where we can sponsor both Ukrainian tractors and Russian cam girls. Is that so wrong to want the best of both worlds?

Oh, if Russia got its shit together, there would be an invasion....of tourists bringing lots of money to spend.

[atomheartbevo 89747]

This is odd

 

[Steel Shank 9428]

2 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

@Brisketexan I'll get a restraining order from her faster than you!

This bitch with her hot as shit legs is sitting high in the saddle in my Baltic wheelhouse,

[Chad Fuck 17696]

Oh, if Russia got its shit together, there would be an invasion....of tourists bringing lots of money to spend.

I’d really like to see the Soviet AF Museum at Monino. Not to mention Red Square or Kursk or a million other significant sights. Looks like that window has closed for the foreseeable future. I’ve always been wary of winding up like Grier or that poor Marine who got stuck there as a hostage. It could really happen to anyone.

[Chad Fuck 17696]

This is odd
 

I hope those guys don’t sneeze and make themselves a flaming hole in the ground.

[atomheartbevo 89747]

4 minutes ago, Chad Fuck said:

I’ve always been wary of winding up like Grier or that poor Marine who got stuck there as a hostage. It could really happen to anyone.

We focus on all of the other shit that Russia is doing to turn off nations as a whole, but these two examples are the stuff that turns off a lot of people.  It's something that turns off a lot of people considering tourism in various countries.

Edited May 16, 2022 by atomheartbevo

[686 3450]

This is odd
 

I’m guessing that the orcs are in a fairly disorganized retreat/re-alignment and don’t have much air support or AA in place, so the UA pilots are getting in on the Safari.

[The Dog 44068]

 

[686 3450]

Artillery getting dialed in with finishing cook-off:

http://

[686 3450]

The UA artillery is just relentlessly carving up the orcs.

http://

http://

[Schulz2.0 28981]

 

[atomheartbevo 89747]

9 minutes ago, 686 said:

The UA artillery is just relentlessly carving up the orcs.

UA getting within gun range of Russian MLRS's is just fucking astounding, not because the UA artillery has great range, but because those MLRSs should be farther back.  

[rpspeed 1398]

3 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

@Brisketexan I'll get a restraining order from her faster than you!

was really hoping for something like this

[Chad Fuck 17696]

We focus on all of the other shit that Russia is doing to turn off nations as a whole, but these two examples are the stuff that turns off a lot of people.  It's something that turns off a lot of people considering tourism in various countries.

For sure. I’m a huge proponent of changing peoples minds about America(ns) by showing up, showing interest and dropping some money. Soft power works. Missed my opportunity to do that in Russia for a while it seems.

[atomheartbevo 89747]

Holy LOL

 

[Chad Fuck 17696]

Holy LOL
 

Let’s not go casting too many stones about jingoistic “patriotism.” It’s not unique to Russia.

[atomheartbevo 89747]

Just now, Chad Fuck said:

Let’s not go casting too many stones about jingoistic “patriotism.” It’s not unique to Russia.

Oh I'm not, but I love the idea of him whipping the crowd up to fight for Mother Russia, knowing what an actual shitshow their military and military leadership is.

Hell, this almost feels like some kind of scene out of WWII (USSR or USA).

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3868]

19 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Oh I'm not, but I love the idea of him whipping the crowd up to fight for Mother Russia, knowing what an actual shitshow their military and military leadership is.

Hell, this almost feels like some kind of scene out of WWII (USSR or USA).

WWE MC or a Televangelist. 

Edited May 16, 2022 by ShaggyBevo RIP

[Gatorubet 30266]

The one thing grabbing my attention is  the bombing of conscription centers.  Perhaps they know more than we think, but they have no way to object that does not involve a gulag stay - so they secretly do what they can.

Sending the minority boys from Poorasshitistan to fight and die is one thing.  Embarrassing, but too far away.  Russians are racist as fuck - and Mongols dying does not move the needle.   Once Moscow gets draft notices for their men and boys, we may see some different pushback.   Those big city fucks prolly have a much better idea how badly they are meat-grinder fodder. 

[Sawbonz 27580]

1 hour ago, Chad Fuck said:

I hope those guys don’t sneeze and make themselves a flaming hole in the ground.

[686 3450]

We focus on all of the other shit that Russia is doing to turn off nations as a whole, but these two examples are the stuff that turns off a lot of people.  It's something that turns off a lot of people considering tourism in various countries.

Regarding tourism and investment:

Cartels : Mexico :: Kremlin : Russia

It’s a wet blanket on foreign investment when the legal system doesn’t work, the cops work for the criminals, and tourists sometimes get held hostage.

[MillerEP 30492]

^interesting tactic

[MillerEP 30492]

One of the units of the Azov SSO regiment Kyiv reports trophies.

Destroyed BMD-2, location unknown.

[MillerEP 30492]

 

[Parliament 14269]

And I mean this in the nicest way possible.  The Ukrainian people are awesome and resilient.  But the eurotrash techno music they play in all the clips of Russian stuff getting blowed up needs to stop.  My ears are bleeding.

[texas08 1599]

If the Russians spent the same amount of money on their military as they do on their state media studios or these concert places…their military would probably be better equipped.

[Left Coast 863]

1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

Holy LOL

 

Both in looks and content I’m getting major Hunger Games vibes.

 

Edited May 16, 2022 by Left Coast

[OU Sucks 8890]

4 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

@Brisketexan I'll get a restraining order from her faster than you!

Oh, I'll give her my one inch

[686 3450]

If the Russians spent the same amount of money on their military as they do on their state media studios or these concert places…their military would probably be better equipped.

Have you seen Putin’s yacht and house by Sochi? ~$2+ Billion on just those two line items. I don’t know exactly how many T-72’s you could refurbish, overhaul, upgrade, etc. with $2B; but I’m pretty sure it’s “all of them”. I believe someone said Putin’s yacht cost more to build that a replacement Moskva would.

[InkaUtexas 26011]

1 minute ago, 686 said:

Have you seen Putin’s yacht and house by Sochi? ~$2+ Billion on just those two line items. I don’t know exactly how many T-72’s you could refurbish, overhaul, upgrade, etc. with $2B; but I’m pretty sure it’s “all of them”. I believe someone said Putin’s yacht cost more to build that a replacement Moskva would.

Well they gotta fit his tables.

[dimyh 1874]

1 hour ago, Gatorubet said:

The one thing grabbing my attention is  the bombing of conscription centers.  Perhaps they know more than we think, but they have no way to object that does not involve a gulag stay - so they secretly do what they can.

Sending the minority boys from Poorasshitistan to fight and die is one thing.  Embarrassing, but too far away.  Russians are racist as fuck - and Mongols dying does not move the needle.   Once Moscow gets draft notices for their men and boys, we may see some different pushback.   Those big city fucks prolly have a much better idea how badly they are meat-grinder fodder. 

Here is a graphic with casualties per region. Noticeably light is Moscow, St Petersberg, and....Chechnya. TikTok warriors still surviving all of those intense firefights with those traffic lights.

 

[InkaUtexas 26011]

 

[atomheartbevo 89747]

 

[27-25 2047]

41 minutes ago, dimyh said:

Here is a graphic with casualties per region. Noticeably light is Moscow, St Petersberg, and....Chechnya. TikTok warriors still surviving all of those intense firefights with those traffic lights.

 

North Ossetia up there near the top of the per capita death rate in Ukraine.  Maybe South Ossetia needs to reconsider its planned vote to join Russia.