Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[atomheartbevo 89362]

Lest we forget, the Soviet Union (287 million people) was twice as large in 1989 as Russia is in 2022.

 

Having a hard time finding any sympathy for them, outside of the kid, unless they are actively protesting the war.  Yes, they would risk jail, but unless a shitload of them actually start protesting, Putin is going to continue cruising along with his 3-day war.

[atomheartbevo 89362]

2 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

George W Bush is jealous of this speedrun

You joke but the more interesting stat is that even if we go with a lowball estimate of just 17,000 dead, that's over 50,000 wounded (at least), which is nearly 70,000 dead and wounded.

That's around 35% (or more) of their entire invading force being killed or wounded, and we haven't seen a massive replacement program due to the fact that Putin can't do much without a declaration of war.  He went to war with a peacetime army, and he's still fighting it with a peacetime army.

But wait, there's more!

Most of their invading force were not combat troops, but support troops such as mechanics, truck drivers, etc.  If you start playing with math, there's probably less than 50,000 combat arms troops (infantry, arty). It's easy to see how so many of their BTGs were rendered ineffective and how their logistics got turbofucked.

[chainsaw 9831]

5 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

You joke but the more interesting stat is that even if we go with a lowball estimate of just 17,000 dead, that's over 50,000 wounded (at least), which is nearly 70,000 dead and wounded.

That's around 35% (or more) of their entire invading force being killed or wounded, and we haven't seen a massive replacement program due to the fact that Putin can't do much without a declaration of war.  He went to war with a peacetime army, and he's still fighting it with a peacetime army.

But wait, there's more!

Most of their invading force were not combat troops, but support troops such as mechanics, truck drivers, etc.  If you start playing with math, there's probably less than 50,000 combat arms troops (infantry, arty). It's easy to see how so many of their BTGs were rendered ineffective and how their logistics got turbofucked.

It's crazy how much power incompetent people can get just by acting the part.

[atomheartbevo 89362]

2 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

It's crazy how much power incompetent people can get just by acting the part.

Putin is incompetent by Western standards, but he is exactly what was needed or created by what Russia had became in the 1990s - a mafia state of sorts.  To this day he still surrounds himself with his Saint Petersburg cronies, as if he's a mob boss who doesn't trust "outsiders".

It does make you wonder though - if Russia was being run by somebody with actual military competence and who understand what the Russian military has become, how would things be different?  Then again, if Putin had at least some military background, he probably would have finished off Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine in 2014, and/or not let the oligarchs strip-mine the military through shitty contracts and other corruption (theft and blackmarket dealings, etc.).  The shitty state of the Russian military has taken 30+ years to happen, and Putin and Co. only accelerated it.

[atomheartbevo 89362]

 

 

[chainsaw 9831]

1 minute ago, atomheartbevo said:

Putin is incompetent by Western standards, but he is exactly what was needed or created by what Russia had became in the 1990s - a mafia state of sorts.  To this day he still surrounds himself with his Saint Petersburg cronies, as if he's a mob boss who doesn't trust "outsiders".

It does make you wonder though - if Russia was being run by somebody with actual military competence and who understand what the Russian military has become, how would things be different?  Then again, if Putin had at least some military background, he probably would have finished off Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine in 2014, and/or not let the oligarchs strip-mine the military through shitty contracts and other corruption (theft and blackmarket dealings, etc.).  The shitty state of the Russian military has taken 30+ years to happen, and Putin and Co. only accelerated it.

That makes sense, maybe I should have clarified that I'm more surprised he was able to hold on to, consolidate, and increase his power. I get that there's a bunch of corruption but even in other corrupt narco and mafia states you'll usually get overthrown or replaced if you are doing a shit enough job.

[atomheartbevo 89362]

Oh shit, people discovered Trent Telenko was into some batshit conspiracy theories and other stuff, and not quite so knowledgable as he appeared to be, so now he's become "TireAnon"

Just one of the threads (most of them are quoting stuff he was into that's more for the CR thread).

 

Edited May 24, 2022 by atomheartbevo

[atomheartbevo 89362]

7 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

That makes sense, maybe I should have clarified that I'm more surprised he was able to hold on to, consolidate, and increase his power. I get that there's a bunch of corruption but even in other corrupt narco and mafia states you'll usually get overthrown or replaced if you are doing a shit enough job.

I don't remember if it was her PBS interview back in February (easy to find on YouTube), but Julia Ioffe has written/spoken a lot about how Putin was able to consolidate and then keep power for so long.  It came down to how he managed to get most of the oligarchs under this thumb and made sure their fortunes, to an extent, relied upon his remaining in office.  He or Russia or whatever, would end up owning a portion of their companies (which is why Putin maybe the richest man in the world), there was always the threat of their Russian assets/companies being confiscated and them being jailed, etc.

In that aspect, he played a very long game - that's why so few oligarchs have been willing to cross him, even though he's ruining their fortunes as they watch their overseas assets confiscated, and their businesses in Russia suffer under sanctions.  Hell, I expected the oligarchs to knock him off well before now, but nope, most of them are staying loyal to him.

It makes sense if you see Russia as basically a petrostate run by the mafia.

Edited May 24, 2022 by atomheartbevo

[atomheartbevo 89362]

Ukrainian Memes Forces doing work

 

[atomheartbevo 89362]

continued

 

[The Dog 43771]

 

[tokamak 6350]

1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

Best outcome to all of this for Russians would be for somebody like Navalny to end up in power.  It would take somebody like him who A) recognizes the actual problem with Russia's actions and the impact they are having on Russia itself and B) tries to do whatever is necessary to reconnect with Europe/the world.

The judge:

[DigglerontheHoof 21022]

It's starting to sound like the Ukrainian army is running out of steam.  I still haven't seen any reliable casualty numbers for them.  Russia may suck ass but they might be grinding  the Ukes down. 

[InkaUtexas 25424]

Troops must be tired as shit on both sides. Don't think they are grinding them down. I think the UA knows they cannot go toe to toe in the Artillery battle, yet, so consolidate their lines, get them straight, and keep bleeding the Russians. As was said above, and good analysis @atomheartbevo, an army designed for peace, like Russia's, cannot sustain combat for a long time. They have to rotated and replaced. 

Shorten the lines, get troops under an artillery shield and go on the defensive. Russia cannot take all of the Ukraine. They can control the eastern zones, but the country? Nah. 

[956 Worldwide 34313]

13 hours ago, Gatorubet said:

If I’m Wagner, maybe don’t hire mercenary jet pilots who were fired for….crashing jets.

Time for my monthly reminder that Wagner doesn’t exist. It’s a convenient fiction for Russia to use.  PMCs are illegal in Russia and even if they weren’t can you imagine Putin’s Russia handing over an in-service attack jet to a private company? 

[InkaUtexas 25424]

7 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Time for my monthly reminder that Wagner doesn’t exist. It’s a convenient fiction for Russia to use.  PMCs are illegal in Russia and even if they weren’t can you imagine Putin’s Russia handing over an in-service attack jet to a private company? 

Only if Erik Prince provided it. 

 

[The Dog 43771]

 

[Bateshorn 9882]

Of Course Kissinger is advocating territorial concessions for peace

 

Just quick reminder of Anthony Bourdain's thoughts on Kissinger (which I happen to fully agree with):

Quote

“ Once you’ve been to Cambodia, you’ll never stop wanting to beat Henry Kissinger to death with your bare hands. You will never again be able to open a newspaper and read about that treacherous, prevaricating, murderous scumbag sitting down for a nice chat with Charlie Rose or attending some black-tie affair for a new glossy magazine without choking. Witness what Henry did in Cambodia – the fruits of his genius for statesmanship – and you will never understand why he’s not sitting in the dock at The Hague next to Milošević.”

 

Edited May 24, 2022 by Bateshorn

[956 Worldwide 34313]

4 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

Of Course Kissinger is advocating territorial concessions for peace

 

Just quick reminder of Anthony Bourdain's thoughts on Kissinger (which I happen to fully agree with):

 

“Wizened War Goblin offers Peace Advice” 

[Born to Run 6520]

“Wizened War Goblin offers Peace Advice” 

More like Henry Kissmyfuckingassyoumurderer amirite?

[InkaUtexas 25424]

31 minutes ago, The Dog said:

 

They want toilet paper? Their money finally worthless and the babushkas and wanna be OF models are complaining? Oh wait, they want to just be able to loot what they find in the Ukraine. Yeah, that's it. 

 

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3867]

1 hour ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

It's starting to sound like the Ukrainian army is running out of steam.  I still haven't seen any reliable casualty numbers for them.  Russia may suck ass but they might be grinding  the Ukes down. 

Most likely just trying to hold the line and attrite RU forces until all the newly enlisted UA forces having actual training, and all the West's heavy weapons arrive, before a counterattack. 

Reports around the net that RU is now pulling T-62s out of storage. Speculation for that is RU has lost every tank in the original commitment force. At present loss rates RU will burn through those 250 T-62 in 6-8 weeks.

[Fico 1743]

3 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Oh shit, people discovered Trent Telenko was into some batshit conspiracy theories and other stuff, and not quite so knowledgable as he appeared to be, so now he's become "TireAnon"

Just one of the threads (most of them are quoting stuff he was into that's more for the CR thread).

 

This makes sense that he's batshit. His shit on artillery targeting and UAVs was just flat wrong. It doesn't take US arty ~1 hour to engage targets unless dumb ROE are in play (not saying the Ukrainian system isn't better). On the UAVs he only looked at USAF drones completely leaving out other branches. 

 

[InkaUtexas 25424]

OK, I laughed. 

 

 

[Chad Fuck 17503]

42 minutes ago, ShaggyBevo RIP said:

Most likely just trying to hold the line and attrite RU forces until all the newly enlisted UA forces having actual training, and all the West's heavy weapons arrive, before a counterattack. 

Reports around the net that RU is now pulling T-62s out of storage. Speculation for that is RU has lost every tank in the original commitment force. At present loss rates RU will burn through those 250 T-62 in 6-8 weeks.

T-62s?  

Better start culling the museums for T-34s.  

[Brisketexan 104464]

3 minutes ago, Chad Fuck said:

T-62s?  

Better start culling the museums for T-34s.  

T-34s?  Shit, Russian farmers better start hiding their horses soon.....

 

[MillerEP 30339]

 

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3867]

This makes sense that he's batshit. His shit on artillery targeting and UAVs was just flat wrong. It doesn't take US arty ~1 hour to engage targets unless dumb ROE are in play (not saying the Ukrainian system isn't better). On the UAVs he only looked at USAF drones completely leaving out other branches. 
 

Reread it. It was USA takes 5 minutes, unless ROE slows it down, and Ukraine less than a minute.

But, yes he started dribbling his far rightwing politics into his threads a a few weeks ago.

[MillerEP 30339]

 

[MillerEP 30339]

 

[MillerEP 30339]

 

[MillerEP 30339]

In Mariupol, during the dismantling of the rubble of a high-rise building, a cemetery with the bodies of 200 victims was found. This was announced by the adviser to the mayor of Mariupol Petro Andryushchenko in the Telegram on May 24.

 

[InkaUtexas 25424]

How do you say Wolverine in Ukrainian? 

 

[MillerEP 30339]

 

[MillerEP 30339]

 

[MillerEP 30339]

 

[MillerEP 30339]

 

[MillerEP 30339]

 

[MillerEP 30339]

 

[atomheartbevo 89362]

 

16 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

 

 

They really are aggy.  They just need to make everything available online.

 

[atomheartbevo 89362]

3 hours ago, Fico said:

This makes sense that he's batshit. His shit on artillery targeting and UAVs was just flat wrong. It doesn't take US arty ~1 hour to engage targets unless dumb ROE are in play (not saying the Ukrainian system isn't better). On the UAVs he only looked at USAF drones completely leaving out other branches. 

The artillery stuff bugged me a bit, as it wasn't as drawn-out as he made it to be, and his bitching that we were careful about our targets was fucking stupid.  There was a reason why the US is careful about just dumping a shitload of artillery onto a target - unlike the Russians, we do try to avoid civilian casualties where possible - we actually recognize that just laying waste to civilians tends to create more enemy fighters and is used in propaganda against us (see all of the times we hit civilians in Afghanistan and Iraq).  Given that in both of those countries, we tended to operate in areas where our guys were surrounded/outnumbered by local civilians, it was a wise move.  Plus it was the ethical move.  We aren't Russians.

In the case of Ukraine, the Ukrainians know the areas because it's their country and they are aware of which places were evacuated, etc., so that could easily speed up/change the ROE.

I briefly looked at Telenko's blog because he had some interesting WWII stuff, but after reading some of the twitter stuff, I found this on his blog, from March of 2020:

Quote

Next, many of the deaths of Health Care Workers may have been due to their brain sems being invaded by the virus and the resultant swelling cutting off the autonomic signals from the brain to the lungs to breath.  So SARS-CoV2/COVID-19 is just like a flu…As long as you remember to keep breathing and don’t fall asleep.

[InkaUtexas 25424]

42 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

 

They really are aggy.  They just need to make everything available online.

 

So Belarus is Blinn? 

[atomheartbevo 89362]

20 hours ago, Deej said:

So Belarus is the Blinn to Russia's aggy?

1 minute ago, InkaUtexas said:

So Belarus is Blinn? 

[Bevo 13493]

38 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Next, many of the deaths of Health Care Workers may have been due to their brain sems being invaded by the virus and the resultant swelling cutting off the autonomic signals from the brain to the lungs to breath.  So SARS-CoV2/COVID-19 is just like a flu…As long as you remember to keep breathing and don’t fall asleep.

37 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

I briefly looked at Telenko's blog because he had some interesting WWII stuff, but after reading some of the twitter stuff, I found this on his blog, from March of 2020:

I haven't read any of his stuff but that thing you highlighted simply comes across as a dark joke.

[SydneyCarton 47809]

12 minutes ago, South Austin said:

Called my girlfriend to tell her about it and my voice started breaking when talking about my own fifth-grade son. 

It’s going to be hard resisting getting shitfaced tonight.

Weird thing to resist. 

[atomheartbevo 89362]

6 minutes ago, Bevo said:

I haven't read any of his stuff but that thing you highlighted simply comes across as a dark joke.

It would be, if it wasn't surrounded by at least three Lobo Manifesto's worth of speculation/opinion.

Hell, I didn't do a word count, so it could very well have been the length of 4-5 Lobo Manifestos.

And he's got a lot of stuff going on that's basically Qanon-lite.

Edited May 24, 2022 by atomheartbevo

[South Austin 52037]

2 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Weird thing to resist. 

I have to be at work early tomorrow morning.

[SydneyCarton 47809]

1 minute ago, South Austin said:

I have to be at work early tomorrow morning.

Even weirder that I managed to get it on the wrong thread. Also, and?

[Bevo 13493]

2 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

It would be, if it wasn't surrounded by at least three Lobo Manifesto's worth of speculation/opinion.

Hell, I didn't do a word count, so it could very well be at 4-5 Lobo Manifestos.

So like War and Peace or an Ian Boyd analysis. Got it.

[Gatorubet 30064]

5 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Time for my monthly reminder that Wagner doesn’t exist. It’s a convenient fiction for Russia to use.  PMCs are illegal in Russia and even if they weren’t can you imagine Putin’s Russia handing over an in-service attack jet to a private company? 

They said the markings on the jet were diff than normal Russian SUs.  So they try to maintain that fiction