Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[The Dog 43771]

 

[atomheartbevo 89362]

From the tweets above, two things are interesting from a strategic POV:

• China has closed the skies for Boeing and Airbus aircraft of Russian airlines, according to Russian media
• Iran to supply Russia with car parts, fuel turbines amid gas crisis in Ukraine

Why does China care about Boeing/Airbus aircraft? Is this a part of the sanctions that the EU, etc. are doing?

Why isn't China supply car parts and fuel turbines?  We hear that Belarus is providing military hardware to Russia and now Iran supplying car parts and turbines.  That's some "sisters of the poor" level shit right there.

[atomheartbevo 89362]

 

[atomheartbevo 89362]

 

[atomheartbevo 89362]

They got a photo of one of the pilots

 

[Schulz2.0 28752]

 

[956 Worldwide 34313]

6 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

From the tweets above, two things are interesting from a strategic POV:

• China has closed the skies for Boeing and Airbus aircraft of Russian airlines, according to Russian media
• Iran to supply Russia with car parts, fuel turbines amid gas crisis in Ukraine

Why does China care about Boeing/Airbus aircraft? Is this a part of the sanctions that the EU, etc. are doing?

Why isn't China supply car parts and fuel turbines?  We hear that Belarus is providing military hardware to Russia and now Iran supplying car parts and turbines.  That's some "sisters of the poor" level shit right there.

On the first bit— those Boeings and Airbuses that were leased to Russian airliners have been re-registered to Russia, and lost the airworthiness certificate (presumably reissued by Russian authorities). But China knows full well that those airplanes aren’t getting parts and maintenance at the manufacturer recommended interval. Simply a safety issue, China isn’t going to let them fly in Chinese airspace or land there. I’d expect many nations to follow suit. 

[The Dog 43771]

Ukraine forces starting to move on Kherson:

 

[atomheartbevo 89362]

Putin, keep on justifying Sweden and Finland joining NATO

 

[atomheartbevo 89362]

 

 

[Telegraph_it 3353]

6 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

 

 

When you are a 50 year old Russian you really only have about 10 years left. Seems like the risk/reward analysis could make sense for signing up. 

[MNLonghornFUKM 8799]

Just 2 more extensions until Putin and most of his inner core can be eligible.

[RockyMountainHighHorn 888]

I know being American doesn’t make it very valid but being Polish is something I will always be proud of….they were some tough mfers during pure hell. 

[atomheartbevo 89362]

 

 

 

[atomheartbevo 89362]

Dissent increasing

Print those rubles

 

[atomheartbevo 89362]

 

[atomheartbevo 89362]

Huge if true

 

 

[MillerEP 30339]

 

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[MillerEP 30339]

The Ukrainian artillery soldiers of the Allied Forces have mastered the French anti-aircraft guns on the CAESAR wheeled chassis and are effectively destroying the Russian occupiers.

"Everything is fast and clear. Arrived at the position,… 50 sec -" Before the battle ", range - 22110 meters, 4-5 shots per minute, 55 sec" Rebound ", disappeared!" - Press Service of the Allied Forces

 

[MillerEP 30339]

Kharkiv region, lined with T-72B3

Artemsil.

45 OABR in cooperation with aerial reconnaissance 15 GU DVKR and Azov destroys the occupiers.

^Ukraine's production value has skyrocketed these past 2-3 weeks.

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[InkaUtexas 25423]

16 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

From the tweets above, two things are interesting from a strategic POV:

• China has closed the skies for Boeing and Airbus aircraft of Russian airlines, according to Russian media
• Iran to supply Russia with car parts, fuel turbines amid gas crisis in Ukraine

Why does China care about Boeing/Airbus aircraft? Is this a part of the sanctions that the EU, etc. are doing?

Why isn't China supply car parts and fuel turbines?  We hear that Belarus is providing military hardware to Russia and now Iran supplying car parts and turbines.  That's some "sisters of the poor" level shit right there.

Next Venezuela will take over the oil industry and Cuba will be in charge of food production. Perhaps they can resurrect Mugabe to handle monetary policies. 

[956 Worldwide 34313]

This is extremely important. Ukraine’s Moscow Patriarchate Orthodox Church has severed ties with Moscow and Kiril and made itself independent. I did an explainer way back (around Easter?) on the various Ukraine churches.  Anyway, this one has long been seen as a Kremlin instrument/spiritual fifth column.  In losing them, you’ve lost Ukraine forever, basically. The Orthodox memory is “millennia.” 
 

 

[956 Worldwide 34313]

More background if you don’t want to search the thread. Also— a bit of a pump for RFERL. Their Russia and Eastern Europe services are some of the best in the business and a must follow for those interested. 
 

https://www.rferl.org/a/orthodox-church-kirill-war-russia/31872141.html

[The Dog 43771]

 

[Parliament 14112]

Where is that, relative to where they had been losing ground and nearly encircled?

[Grimas 658]

19 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Where is that, relative to where they had been losing ground and nearly encircled?

SW - north of Crimea

[Pods 7522]

Russia deploying their training units into combat with obsolete gear.

If they don't win now, they are going to have trouble training troops in the very near future. Going to see even more recruits rushed straight into battle. 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/05/28/to-replenish-its-army-in-ukraine-russia-plans-to-strip-its-training-units-it-can-only-do-this-once/?sh=5a9db363a98f

Quote

Every brigade and regiment in the Russian army forms at least two BTGs for combat, both with professional contract soldiers. A so-called “third battalion” oversees a brigade or regiment’s conscripts—who, by law, aren’t supposed to deploy to a combat zone—and handles training and constabulary tasks.

The mobilization order requires the higher units to strip their third battalions of all legally deployable manpower in order to form an extra BTG. The open-source analysts at Conflict Intelligence Team believe the army can squeeze another 30 or 40 BTGs from the existing third battalions.

These units will not be well-armed. The army has lost a third or more of its active tanks. New construction realistically can’t replace them. Russia’s main tank factory idled back in March as new sanctions deprived it of microchips and optics, which Russia usually imports.

 

Spoiler

To Replenish Its Army In Ukraine, Russia Plans To Strip Its Training Units. It Can Only Do This Once.

David Axe08:00am EDT

Russian troops in January 2022.

Russian defense ministry photo

Before Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered his forces to widen their war on Ukraine starting the night of Feb. 23, the Russian army had 168 battalion tactical groups.

A BTG is the Russian army’s basic unit for ground warfare. Each BTG includes around 800 soldiers plus 50 or so armored vehicles. For the Ukraine campaign, the army concentrated at least 125 of its 168 BTGs—three-quarters of the overall combat force.

Three months later, the Ukrainians have destroyed 4,100 Russian vehicles, killed up to 15,000 Russian troops and wounded perhaps several times that number. Russia’s losses amount to the dissolution of around three-dozen BTGs.

So it’s worth asking: as Russia attempts to sustain a fresh offensive across a small pocket of Ukrainian troops in the city of Severodonetsk, in eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region, how many BTGs are left? And how many more battalions can the Kremlin mobilize?

When the Russian army retreated from northern Ukraine in March and April, it reconstituted some BTGs and also deployed fresh battalions from Russia’s fringes. The Pentagon on May 16 estimated Russia had 106 BTGs in Ukraine. Ten days later the battalion count was up to 110—this despite the Russians losing one or two BTGs trying to cross the Siverskyi Donets River, north of Severodonetsk, in early May.

With 110 BTGs in Ukraine, the Russian army might have just 20 or 30 battalions in reserve. Realistically, some of them cannot deploy without exposing the cities or borders they guard. For example, the remaining BTGs in Kaliningrad, Russia’s geographically-separate exclave on the Baltic Sea.

As casualties continue to mount, not adding forces to Ukraine isn’t an option for Russia unless it’s willing to, well, lose. The solution, of course, is to stand up new BTGs. But with what troops and equipment? 

According to recent mobilization order, which some analysts claim to have seen, the Kremin plans to raid its training base. It’s a risky move.

Every brigade and regiment in the Russian army forms at least two BTGs for combat, both with professional contract soldiers. A so-called “third battalion” oversees a brigade or regiment’s conscripts—who, by law, aren’t supposed to deploy to a combat zone—and handles training and constabulary tasks.

Forbes BusinessRead MoreThe Rise Of Chelsea Women To Be ChartedIn New Documentary Series

The mobilization order requires the higher units to strip their third battalions of all legally deployable manpower in order to form an extra BTG. The open-source analysts at Conflict Intelligence Team believe the army can squeeze another 30 or 40 BTGs from the existing third battalions.

These units will not be well-armed. The army has lost a third or more of its active tanks. New construction realistically can’t replace them. Russia’s main tank factory idled back in March as new sanctions deprived it of microchips and optics, which Russia usually imports.

The Kremlin on paper has 10,000 tanks in storage, including thousands of reasonably modern T-80s and T-72s. But many of those tanks lack chips and optics, too—and others have rusted away after years of exposure to rain and snow. 

Some of the oldest stored tanks have fared the best. Sixty-year-old T-62s don’t have a lot of sophisticated equipment and could be easier to regenerate. This helps to explain why social-media users have begun spotting trainloads of the ancient tanks trundling into Melitopol in Russian-occupied southern Ukraine.

As the wider war in Ukraine enters its fourth month, the Kremlin is beginning the painful process of forming potentially dozens of BTGs to replace an equal number of battalions the Ukrainians have destroyed. The deadline reportedly is in June.

But those BTGs will ride in obsolete vehicles. And they will leave behind them the empty shells of brigades and regiments that no longer will have much, or any, training base. 

Trainers are an army’s regenerative tissue—the means by which it sustains itself after wartime damage. When you deploy the trainers, you lose the ability to regenerate. What that means is: Russia can replenish its army in Ukraine, restoring it roughly to the numerical strength—if not the technological sophistication—it possessed on day one of the wider war. 

But it can only replenish the army once. If Ukraine destroys those extra Russian BTGs, there might not be any more battalions to take their place.

 

[MadBurgerMaker 403]

12 minutes ago, Pods said:

Three months later, the Ukrainians have destroyed 4,100 Russian vehicles, killed up to 15,000 Russian troops and wounded perhaps several times that number. Russia’s losses amount to the dissolution of around three-dozen BTGs.

[atomheartbevo 89362]

So now the Kherson referendum to join Russia is scheduled towards next year.

[The Dog 43771]

 

[956 Worldwide 34313]

Ukraine sets up virtual reality tours of war-torn cities and neighborhoods under their control. 
 

https://guide.kyivcity.gov.ua/en/virtual-tours/budivla-v-sevcenkivskomu-rajoni-zaznala-rujnuvanna

[956 Worldwide 34313]

8 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

So now the Kherson referendum to join Russia is scheduled towards next year.

Russia is leaving some strategic flexibility here. It’s hard to walk back from annexing an area into your country.  This is a signal that they don’t know if they can win there and they don’t want to commit unless they are sure they can. 

[TexasEd 8062]

29 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Russia is leaving some strategic flexibility here. It’s hard to walk back from annexing an area into your country.  This is a signal that they don’t know if they can win there and they don’t want to commit unless they are sure they can. 

Agree,  Anything they "annex" cannot be negotiated back or lost in battle without looking bad back home.

When Ukraine starts occupying Kherson, or parts of Crimean and Donbas that have been held since 2014 it will be fun to hear the lamenting from those Russian TV fools.

[atomheartbevo 89362]

44 minutes ago, TexasEd said:

When Ukraine starts occupying Kherson, or parts of Crimean and Donbas that have been held since 2014 it will be fun to hear the lamenting from those Russian TV fools.

We just think they talk about nukes a lot.

[atomheartbevo 89362]

Serbs are just assholes.

 

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[Bateshorn 9882]

24 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Serbs are just assholes.

 

As it has been, as it always will be.

My wife and I spent two magical weeks in Croatia a few years ago.  This is literally every Croatian within earshot when you even say the word “Serbia”

Edited May 29, 2022 by Bateshorn

[atomheartbevo 89362]

The fighting for the pocket thing mentioned yesterday makes total sense - if you look at the map, that's tying up a helluva lot of Russian troops that can't back each other up easily, are hard to resupply given the distances (of having to go around the pocket), and they are having to defend a much larger area and are spread out more.  Meanwhile, the Ukrainian forces are defending a smaller area and can easily reinforce each other, and are easily to keep supplied.

Ukrainians have already shown plenty of times that they will fall back when they feel like the cost is either not worth it, or that they just can't hold it.

[Neonmoon 38127]

Hope they reach Kherson soon. They’re only 30 miles out

[atomheartbevo 89362]

President Volodymyr Zelensky makes a rare trip outside Kyiv - visiting troops on the front line in Kharkiv region

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-61612803

BBC shows Russian ambassador video of Russian atrocities, he says they are a fabrication

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-61623278

Russian ambassador says he doesn't believe Russia will use nukes in Ukraine.  Also said footage of atrocities were computer games or film or jokes.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61618902

Quote

Russia's ambassador to Britain has told the BBC he does not believe his country will use tactical nuclear weapons in the war against Ukraine.

Andrei Kelin said that according to Russian military rules, such weapons are not used in conflicts like this. 

He also described allegations of war crimes in the town of Bucha as "a fabrication".

And he called UK Foreign Secretary Liz Truss "very belligerent" and inexperienced.

On the use of nuclear weapons, Mr Kelin said Russia has very strict rules for their use, mainly when the state's existence is threatened.

"It has nothing to do with the current operation," he told BBC One's Sunday Morning.

--

Mr Kelin said the footage was "probably a piece of a film or a piece of a game or a joke or whatever, it's a computer games set".

 

Edited May 29, 2022 by atomheartbevo