Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[956 Worldwide 34709]

5 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

is it advantageous to the US for this war to slowly bleed out Russia (as opposed to it ending decisively sooner)?

No. The U.S would far prefer the Russians simply give up and following that a decisive and quick UA victory.  A weakened Russia is a salubrious side effect and not the end goal.

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

17 minutes ago, The Dog said:

 

a couple things jump out:

() the russian boomer asking who was going to work to pay for her pension was excellent. sounds like their boomers are just as shitty as ours.

() babushka saying 'we're deep in the ass!' was allsome.

[Gatorubet 30233]

1 hour ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

a couple things jump out:

() the russian boomer asking who was going to work to pay for her pension was excellent. sounds like their boomers are just as shitty as ours.

Nothing moves a body like naked self interest. She is likely more concerned about her pension than she is about her son-in-law.

[Chad Fuck 17673]

Nothing moves a body like naked self interest. She is likely more concerned about her pension than she is about her son-in-law.

She can get along without a son in law. Without a pension…?

[Gatorubet 30233]

Also, let the fragging of Russian  Niedermeirs begin in earnest. 

[MillerEP 30455]

 

[Schulz2.0 28951]

Russia is losing so many troops they're sending training groups to fight.

 

[MillerEP 30455]

 

[MillerEP 30455]

 

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3868]

Capturing Mykolaivka means UKR has pushed all the way to the Dnipro River, east of Kherson, and control any westbound traffic over the Kakhovka Dam.

Now if they can blow up both the road and rail bridge over the Dnipro into Kherson the RU troops there are cut off from land resupply at the least and possibly lose the ability to retreat.

[MillerEP 30455]

 

[MillerEP 30455]

Trophy BMP-1.

American reconnaissance UAV RQ-20 Puma in the Armed Forces.

[Gatorubet 30233]

2 hours ago, The Dog said:

 

I found it interesting that in ‘information suppressed Russia’ that the mom knew the Ukrainian estimated casualties and the United States estimated casualties and compared it to the bullshit Russian estimate of casualties. It looks more and more like the Russians know exactly what is going on, but as a society they are still too petrified to object or demonstrate because they know the Gulag is still a possibility.

[MillerEP 30455]

Slovakia will hand over 8 Zuzana 2 anti-aircraft guns to Ukraine, said Defense Minister Jaroslav Nay. Self-propelled artillery can fire up to 41 km. This is one of the latest developments of the Slovak military-industrial complex.

Destruction of two units of armored vehicles of the occupiers in the Zaporozhye region.

[MillerEP 30455]

France will send to Ukraine an additional batch of self-propelled howitzers "CAESAR", - French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna.

Jet artillery of the 81st brigade of the DShV destroys the Russian occupiers in Donetsk region.

Mariupol, graves of victims of Russian shelling.

[MillerEP 30455]

Lviv paratroopers destroyed a platoon of the 104th assault regiment from the Pskov region, Russia.

French-made Mistral MANPADS, 3rd Separate Tank Brigade. 🇺🇦 🇫🇷

^Lol, so they hit the train with all the tanks on it?

[MillerEP 30455]

 

[956 Worldwide 34709]

Important to read both of these pieces, the one about Ukrainian war crimes trials and the one about what the Kremlin is likely planning. A grotesque parody of Nuremberg. And of course, Nuremberg was an Allied tribunal and not just the USSR.

 

[MillerEP 30455]

 

[MillerEP 30455]

^Eyeroll

[Gatorubet 30233]

^Lol, so they hit the train with all the tanks on it?

Those T-62s use a different main ammo than the newer tanks. It also is too slow to keep up with the BMT-1 vehicles. If modern anti-tank missiles are taking out T-90s and T-82s, they are

[The Dog 44039]

 

[Gatorubet 30233]

 https://twitter.com/anders_aslund/status/1531346975265902595?s=21&t=LdKffJ7iI8UxbZjnhHobUQ

[Scheiss Meister 8407]

2 hours ago, MillerEP said:

 

Dammit, Joe, they need those rockets to perform deep interdiction strikes on Russian supply lines in both Ukraine and Russia.  We know that the Ukrainians aren't indiscriminately shelling/rocketing civilian targets.  Get them the tools that they need to stretch the Russians.

[Gatorubet 30233]

24 minutes ago, Scheiss Meister said:

Dammit, Joe, they need those rockets to perform deep interdiction strikes on Russian supply lines in both Ukraine and Russia.  We know that the Ukrainians aren't indiscriminately shelling/rocketing civilian targets.  Get them the tools that they need to stretch the Russians.

Russia claims that giving weapons that can hit deep inside Russia is going to war with Russia.   Joe is walking that diplomatic tight rope.  Looks like Russia is getting its ass beat just fine as it is.   

[Chad Fuck 17673]

Russia claims that giving weapons that can hit deep inside Russia is going to war with Russia.   Joe is walking that diplomatic tight rope.  Looks like Russia is getting its ass beat just fine as it is.   

Though there’s a big part of me that would really really like to see Ukraine bring the war to Russian towns. I understand why that’s a bad idea politically. It was sweet watching those Uke Hinds blow those fuel storage tanks up earlier on though.

[Scheiss Meister 8407]

4 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

Russia claims that giving weapons that can hit deep inside Russia is going to war with Russia.   Joe is walking that diplomatic tight rope.  Looks like Russia is getting its ass beat just fine as it is.   

I get that, but what is Russia going to do about it?  They know by now that they can't start anything with NATO or the US that we won't finish.  I guess they're rattling the nuclear saber, and that has to be taken seriously.  Still frustrates the hell out of me.

[Neonmoon 38129]

Russia is full of shit. They are using empty threats to try and deter US giving Ukraine more weapons. The Howitzers we already gave Ukraine can hit targets in Russia. Same with the drones. 
 

[Deej 76766]

3 hours ago, MillerEP said:

^Eyeroll

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

1 hour ago, Scheiss Meister said:

Dammit, Joe, they need those rockets to perform deep interdiction strikes on Russian supply lines in both Ukraine and Russia.  We know that the Ukrainians aren't indiscriminately shelling/rocketing civilian targets.  Get them the tools that they need to stretch the Russians.

Agreed. If you want this to end, then end it.

[atomheartbevo 89656]

4 hours ago, Gatorubet said:

I found it interesting that in ‘information suppressed Russia’ that the mom knew the Ukrainian estimated casualties and the United States estimated casualties and compared it to the bullshit Russian estimate of casualties. It looks more and more like the Russians know exactly what is going on, but as a society they are still too petrified to object or demonstrate because they know the Gulag is still a possibility.

Russia is going after after VPN usage in certain parts of Russia, as a trial run to shut down info from the outside.

"Inside Russia" is one of the Russian YouTubers (still in Russia) I occasionally will put on for a few minutes in the background - he's clearly not happy with things (he lived in the US for years and has a lot of friends in Ukraine), but he's walking that line of not saying what will get him arrested.  But holy shit he loves to talk.  Tell him he has an hour to speak and he'll speak for 59 minutes and 59 seconds.  Anyways, he's mentioned that he looks at outside info on the war, that he uses a VPN, etc.

He's in Rostov-on-Don, and that is one of the areas where Russia is going to be clamping down on VPN usage.

In theory he and a few other Russian YouTubers/social media types will probably start disappearing shortly - if so, that means Russia is trying to cut off the outside.

 

[atomheartbevo 89656]

7 hours ago, Gengs1 said:

Just my hunch but USA is probably is sharing a shit ton of intel with Ukraine to hurt Russia, no way they just stopped sharing Intel now 

Yep.  They cut off the journalists/public after the invasion started, but clearly Ukraine has good targeting information, etc., and Ukrainian forces aren't being caught off guard.

US/NATO/Sweden keep running a shit-ton of ISR flights all over the Baltics/Poland/Romania/Black Sea.

 

[tokamak 6426]

59 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Russia is going after after VPN usage in certain parts of Russia, as a trial run to shut down info from the outside.

"Inside Russia" is one of the Russian YouTubers (still in Russia) I occasionally will put on for a few minutes in the background - he's clearly not happy with things (he lived in the US for years and has a lot of friends in Ukraine), but he's walking that line of not saying what will get him arrested.  But holy shit he loves to talk.  Tell him he has an hour to speak and he'll speak for 59 minutes and 59 seconds.  Anyways, he's mentioned that he looks at outside info on the war, that he uses a VPN, etc.

He's in Rostov-on-Don, and that is one of the areas where Russia is going to be clamping down on VPN usage.

In theory he and a few other Russian YouTubers/social media types will probably start disappearing shortly - if so, that means Russia is trying to cut off the outside.

 

My guess is that Russia doesn’t give much of a shit what Westerners see on social media these days. Their propaganda on YouTube, Facebook, etc is mostly aimed at audiences in places like India, the ME, South America, etc. 

[atomheartbevo 89656]

6 hours ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

is it advantageous to the US for this war to slowly bleed out Russia (as opposed to it ending decisively sooner)?

I'm assuming that you do not include US/NATO troops fighting Russia.

Russia right now, has lost I think just over 3 years' worth of modern tank production in Ukraine - they were only producing around 250 modern T-72/T-80/T-90/whatever a year prior to the sanctions hurting their production (chips and specialized materials/metals).  As mentioned, they are dredging the bottom of the barrel and using units/soldiers/vehicles that are not befitting the environment in Ukraine.  So they are bleeding out.

It would be great to help Ukraine end it sooner, but there's a massive difference between helping Ukraine slowly cut off and drive Russian forces out over the next several months like we are doing now, versus providing some kind of knock-out blow.  

And all of the stuff we've already been providing Ukraine is basically perfect for that battlefield - all of it is kind of decentralized and hard for Russia to take out all at once, and more importantly, things like the kick-ass howitzers we and others have provided require very little training for experienced Ukrainian artillery crews.  It's been amazing how well NATO came together and is only feeding weapons systems into Ukraine that Ukrainian troops can quickly learn and properly utilize.  We aren't throwing shit at the wall and seeing what sticks.

Providing a quick knock-out blow is also not that quick - we would have to provide certain weapons systems and then make sure the Ukrainians are fully trained up, and those systems may include advanced aircraft, long-range stuff, etc., all of which can be tough to supply/repair in the field.  Some of those systems require training for experienced personnel that may run months longer on top of what they already know (versus now where we give them new artillery, and it's just a matter of weeks before they are familiarized with them).

In a way, getting the Ukrainians ready to deliver a quick knock-out blow would also take just as much time as what we are currently doing, and there's a bit of a danger in that if we get Ukraine setup with all kinds of aircraft/long-range systems/etc., that Russia would make a serious attempt at destroying them (and fancy aircraft are tied down to airfields which the Russians can still saturate with missiles).

Russia has made it clear that they have plans for beyond Ukraine - they have publicly talked about Moldova and Georgia, and Putin's spokespeople are making it clear that Russia won't stop with Ukraine, and the fact that they are making noise towards the Baltic states and Poland and Romania is fucking insane.  

We really don't have a choice other than to be directly involved or not. They are openly committing atrocities right now and give no fucks.

[atomheartbevo 89656]

11 minutes ago, tokamak said:

My guess is that Russia doesn’t give much of a shit what Westerners see on social media these days. Their propaganda on YouTube, Facebook, etc is mostly aimed at audiences in places like India, the ME, South America, etc. 

Oh yeah, it's not about the Westerners, but I think the VPN/social media blocking is keeping the Russian population in the dark.  There are cracks in the armor, and when you have those idiots on the evening state-controlled TV programs (in particularly Channel 1 or whatever that Julia Davis posts a lot of clips of) that are talking about how Russia must do this, that, and the other, and how Russia is succeeding, but needs to do more, you have to keep the public in the dark about the reality.

Flip side to that is that the Russian government/state-controlled media is trying so hard to sell this as a success, it's hard for the Russian government to claim they have to call up reserves/conscripts/etc.

[The Dog 44039]

Uncle Joe needs talking points and to stick to them.

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3868]

Dammit, Joe, they need those rockets to perform deep interdiction strikes on Russian supply lines in both Ukraine and Russia.  We know that the Ukrainians aren't indiscriminately shelling/rocketing civilian targets.  Get them the tools that they need to stretch the Russians.

So, they get the 100 mile range Himars missiles but not the 200 mile ones?

[Scheiss Meister 8407]

They don't need the long range ones to strike targets in Russia so much as they need to reach all of the Donbas and Crimea, especially the ports.  Start knocking back Russian naval assets and inhibit missile attack from the sea.  Start knocking back rail yards, rail bridges, and supply dumps in occupied Ukraine.  Keep pushing east along the border until they can get some conventional artillery in range of Bolgorod, then start hitting military targets there, too.  Knocking down the Kerch bridges would be fantastic, too.

[Parliament 14257]

1 minute ago, Scheiss Meister said:

Start knocking back Russian naval assets and inhibit missile attack from the sea

How effective can the Ukrainians be at that?  Seems like it'd be a good thing.

[Scheiss Meister 8407]

Ukraine doesn't have the naval assets to do a lot there, but satellite images of submarines reloading cruise missiles have been published.  With sufficient range the Ukrainians could at least beat the shit out of those port facilities.  If they time it right or get lucky, damaging or destroying a sub or two that are alongside the dock is not impossible.  That is where long range rockets would be very useful.

Getting a sub or two is not likely, but, then again, neither was sinking the Moscow.

[RDCanecutter 26426]

44 minutes ago, Scheiss Meister said:

Getting a sub or two is not likely, but, then again, neither was sinking the Moscow.

You miss every shot at Russians that you don't take.

[wd40 1976]

the whole argument is stupid.  if a Uke is standing at a border crossing and pisses over the gate, the russians will start barking about their badass nukes again.  we know all this.

if there's any debate to be had, it's about US-built tech getting captured, and what kind of rules we can fet the Ukes to follow to keep it safe.  hell.  I'd be sending them the longest-range shit we got.  if the russians are good at anything, it's stealing.

 

Edited May 31, 2022 by wd40

[atomheartbevo 89656]

3 hours ago, wd40 said:

if there's any debate to be had, it's about US-built tech getting captured, and what kind of rules we can fet the Ukes to follow to keep it safe.  hell.  I'd be sending them the longest-range shit we got.  if the russians are good at anything, it's stealing.

I assume that anything we sell to Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and a few other countries, probably ends up getting looked over by Russian or Chinese spies.

[The Dog 44039]

 

[Nivek 16926]

One channel I watched suggested that Ukraine has lost 9-12k fighters so far. Any hard sources for this?

[wd40 1976]

5 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

I assume that anything we sell to Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and a few other countries, probably ends up getting looked over by Russian or Chinese spies.

fair point.  I assume we have an export version and the 'full' version of the more advanced systems, but maybe not.  I saw some discussion about the M777s we were sending that were missing the boxes for guidance systems, for example.   as 'unforecasted demand', we may not have any of the export versions immediately available of the HIMARS.

but yeah.  we probably really are just dumb.

[atomheartbevo 89656]

20 minutes ago, wd40 said:

fair point.  I assume we have an export version and the 'full' version of the more advanced systems, but maybe not.  I saw some discussion about the M777s we were sending that were missing the boxes for guidance systems, for example.   as 'unforecasted demand', we may not have any of the export versions immediately available of the HIMARS.

but yeah.  we probably really are just dumb.

There are export versions, and in the case of HIMARS, MLRS, etc., they are going to be far enough back that capture probably isn't an issue.

In the case of the M777s, apparently Ukraine is using their own guidance systems so that they integrate with their fire control systems.

[atomheartbevo 89656]

Just looking at revenue of the largest companies that bailed, this appears to be revenue inside of Russia.

 

[The Dog 44039]

Something to keep in mind as Russia makes gains in Sievierodonetsk:

My completely amateurish armchair analysis says that we're going to reach an inflection point if Russia manages to take Sievierodonetsk (I've had to copy and paste that because I can't spell it for the life of me). 

1. Russia takes Sievierodonetsk and then claims victory in the Donbas and sues for a case fire (with the intent of resuming hostilities at a later date); or

2. Russia presses on and their military eventually suffers a complete collapse. 

#1 opens up a diplomatic can of worms that could fracture NATO. I think that's what Putin should be aiming for.

Of course that assumes that they actually succeed in taking Sievierodonetsk - if not then they will be in the second scenario regardless. 

[Brisketexan 105114]

26 minutes ago, The Dog said:

Something to keep in mind as Russia makes gains in Sievierodonetsk:

My completely amateurish armchair analysis says that we're going to reach an inflection point if Russia manages to take Sievierodonetsk (I've had to copy and paste that because I can't spell it for the life of me). 

1. Russia takes Sievierodonetsk and then claims victory in the Donbas and sues for a case fire (with the intent of resuming hostilities at a later date); or

2. Russia presses on and their military eventually suffers a complete collapse. 

#1 opens up a diplomatic can of worms that could fracture NATO. I think that's what Putin should be aiming for.

Of course that assumes that they actually succeed in taking Sievierodonetsk - if not then they will be in the second scenario regardless. 

#1 is the smart play.

I am past the point of attributing clever strategery to Putin.  He may have some, but it will be in fits and starts, and being deluded and stupid is an equal -- if not greater -- likelihood.