Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[MillerEP 30455]

 

[Kel Varnsen 8460]

He was probably contemplating trying to help the others who didn't get out of the tank. Also looked like he was calling AAA or something to get a tow...

[MillerEP 30455]

Launch of the kamikaze drone "Switchblade" by Ukrainian soldiers in the Kharkiv direction.

[The Dog 44042]

7 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

So, as the war moves into June this is what one random message board asshole thinks the Russians are up to and what we should do.  
 

- I really do think that Putin believed Kyiv would fall and he’d install a puppet government that would hand over Donbas and more without real fighting. 
 

- I think now Russia is going to try push their territorial gains to the maximum of their capability.  At minimum, all of Donbas, hold onto Kherson and the southeast.  
 

- Russia will then offer Ukraine a truce.  Abandon claims to Donbas and Crimea with the status of Kherson to be negotiated. In exchange, peace and the food starts leaving Ukrainian ports.  Russia will wait till later in the summer, the Kremlin will want migrants to at least begin showing up on European shores.

- Russia will play some gas brinksmanship and the migrant card to prod Germany, France, Italy, and of course Hungary and Turkey to prod Ukraine to accept the deal.  They will be the ones offering a “reasonable peace” and it’s important to remember that especially France and Germany didn’t see Ukraine as a real country before the war. They’ve been pushed into solitary because they had no place to hide— but this deal will sound sensible to them. Even more sensible than Ukraine’s position.  
 

- If it works, great for Russia.  Zelenskyy’s government will soon fall, Ukraine will become even more of a basket case and ripe for exploration. If the gambit fails, Russia digs in to defensive positions, preps for a long hybrid war (kinetic in Ukraine, info/gas/cyber/migrants/food against the West) and keeps beating the “ready to talk on our terms” drum.  At the very least, counting on distraction and fatigue and the propaganda war to divide NATO and leave Ukraine in a perilous state. 
 

All of the above is a very real scenario.  And this is a tough nut to crack because as the war goes on we see that Russia’s very real weaknesses and cracks can only be exploited so far. What we and Ukraine need to do:

- Remind everyone constantly that this is not a war of territory. It’s a war for survival. Russian occupation will mean ethnic cleansing and brutal repression.  Ukraine needs some show trials of its own (not in the sense of pre-determined— but showing the world what Russia does). Ukraine has to make it completely unpalatable to suggest any sort of peace on Russian terms with Ukrainians behind their lines. 
 

- We need to make clear to Russia that we will not consult with them about what what types of weapons Ukraine gets. Weapons deliveries to Ukraine will be driven by our joint assessments of their needs, our own security needs, and our own availability. Any conventional weapons are on the table regardless of capability. We can play the game ourselves, NATO is a nuclear alliance. We need to publicly state this and treat it as patently absurd that Russia would attack a nuclear Alliance over weapons deliveries or introduce nuclear weapons on a battlefield because it’s losing a war. It’s time for us to set the rules of rationality. 

That's pretty much what I was thinking earlier - Russia's offensive culminates and then they have a choice of either suing for a cease fire or pressing on. 

While this is a "very real scenario" keep in mind that Putin's clock is ticking. He wants ALL of Ukraine and he wants it yesterday.

There's no more long game with respect to Ukraine - in Putin's mind we are at the "end game" and Ukraine must be dealt with now. 

[MillerEP 30455]

In Ukraine, the deputy commander of the 4th Battalion of the Kadyrov Regiment, Lieutenant Colonel Zaur Dimayev, was eliminated.

 

[atomheartbevo 89659]

8 minutes ago, Kel Varnsen said:

He was probably contemplating trying to help the others who didn't get out of the tank. 

Maybe, although the concussion/not knowing what planet he was on is more likely, and at this point he may not even know the other tank crew members, given how they are just throwing crews together and getting them out in the field.

[atomheartbevo 89659]

 

[atomheartbevo 89659]

Guy from the video above

 

 

[atomheartbevo 89659]

Can't wait for US to get those rocket launchers over there.

 

[MillerEP 30455]

Artist Denis Tsyperko, drew illustrations in which our defenders do not allow the occupiers to the plant "Azovstal". The artist portrayed our soldiers as strong and fearless, and the occupiers as soulless zombies.

 

[Viper 12109]

1 hour ago, MillerEP said:

I think you guys are overthinking it. There is an extremely high probability that after running over two mines and getting hit by an ATGM, that dude's head is ringing and he has a concussion, if not worse. So I think he's just confused and trying to remember his own name and what day it is.

[Dahobbs 17534]

2 hours ago, The Dog said:

 

I thought we weren't citing to the Telenko person anymore since he really doesn't know anything. 

[Gatorubet 30234]

20 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

I thought we weren't citing to the Telenko person anymore since he really doesn't know anything. 

Well, that is a bad precedent for 99% of Surly posters. 

[tokamak 6427]

All Russia has to do is hang around in Ukraine until, like, early October. When we start getting into fall, western Europe will be fucking begging for Russian gas. They have domestic politics just like anywhere else. Our domestic politics is going to start getting restless, too.

Interesting wild card is China. They seem pretty content to let this play out while Russia and the west weaken each other, scooping up defense sales that Russia can't fulfill anymore. There's a lot of ways they could put their finger on the scale if they want, though. Putin really is a fucking abject moron if he thinks Xi is in any way his buddy.

[atomheartbevo 89659]

10 minutes ago, tokamak said:

All Russia has to do is hang around in Ukraine until, like, early October.

Russia is going to struggle hanging around until August.

[atomheartbevo 89659]

Not surprising, given that Russian hackers have tried to fuck with US/NATO systems/infrastructure since February.

 

[The Dog 44042]

 

[The Dog 44042]

 

[Orange&White 5526]

39 minutes ago, tokamak said:

All Russia has to do is hang around in Ukraine until, like, early October. When we start getting into fall, western Europe will be fucking begging for Russian gas. They have domestic politics just like anywhere else. Our domestic politics is going to start getting restless, too.

Yup. This has to be Putin's plan.

27 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Russia is going to struggle hanging around until August.

Let's hope so. It seems like there has been an uptick in mutiny stories and the equipment situation is obviously deteriorating. At least from the vehicle standpoint. Seem like the missile strikes slowed way down but the artillery doesn't seem to be affected at all.

[RDCanecutter 26426]

54 minutes ago, tokamak said:

All Russia has to do is hang around in Ukraine until, like, early October. When we start getting into fall, western Europe will be fucking begging for Russian gas. They have domestic politics just like anywhere else. Our domestic politics is going to start getting restless, too.

Interesting wild card is China. They seem pretty content to let this play out while Russia and the west weaken each other, scooping up defense sales that Russia can't fulfill anymore. There's a lot of ways they could put their finger on the scale if they want, though. Putin really is a fucking abject moron if he thinks Xi is in any way his buddy.

I expect some Bandit Kingdoms to spring up in some of Russia's periphery, protected by local "Russian" soldiers.

[TexasEd 8066]

18 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

Thread on US vs. Orc missile systems. Interesting read. 

 

 

 

18 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

That thread is really really informative. 

yep, here is the summary - click the "view"

 

 

 

[Fico 1778]

1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

Not surprising, given that Russian hackers have tried to fuck with US/NATO systems/infrastructure since February.

 

Maybe it will be in the full interview they have yet to release but that headline seems misleading. I took what he said as we are continuing to work to discover Russian cyber threats and exposure them before they can be used. We were doing it before the war even started.  In a way it's offensive but more accurately proactive IMO.  He did not say we have been actively cyber attacking the Russian military. 

[Gatorubet 30234]

40 minutes ago, Orange&White said:

Yup. This has to be Putin's plan.

Let's hope so. It seems like there has been an uptick in mutiny stories and the equipment situation is obviously deteriorating. At least from the vehicle standpoint. Seem like the missile strikes slowed way down but the artillery doesn't seem to be affected at all.

When they finally confirm the number of deaths and wounded, shit will get real.  They are still deluded as to the true costs of the war.   Plus, another couple months  till the sanctions hit the man on the street hard. 

 

[The Dog 44042]

 

[SquishMitten 10405]

15 hours ago, Scheiss Meister said:

Stay on the tank that just ran over not one but two mines and is brewing up, or jump down into a minefield?  Quite the conundrum.  After that second one bounced him off the top of the turret his brain had to be "is potato" fucked up.  No good choices for ol' Vatnik there.

I would think walking back through the tracks you just made would be a pretty safe bet

[Fico 1778]

22 minutes ago, SquishMitten said:

I would think walking back through the tracks you just made would be a pretty safe bet

But that would be back towards Russia. 

[Trey3216 15346]

Congrats to the Ukrainians on a big victory on the pitch today vs Scotland.  Just an incredibly inspiring performance.  Now they face Wales on Sunday with the World Cup on the line.  

[Brisketexan 105123]

6 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Congrats to the Ukrainians on a big victory on the pitch today vs Scotland.  Just an incredibly inspiring performance.  Now they face Wales on Sunday with the World Cup on the line.  

Man.....I hate to root against them....but shit, I don't want Ukraine in our group.  Shades of the Sympathy Bowl v. Aggy, except the opponent is honorable and not a bunch of morons.  No thanks.

[MillerEP 30455]

 

[Parliament 14258]

Delete

Edited June 1, 2022 by Parliament

[Trey3216 15346]

25 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Man.....I hate to root against them....but shit, I don't want Ukraine in our group.  Shades of the Sympathy Bowl v. Aggy, except the opponent is honorable and not a bunch of morons.  No thanks.

I hear ya on that.  

[The Dog 44042]

41 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Man.....I hate to root against them....but shit, I don't want Ukraine in our group.  Shades of the Sympathy Bowl v. Aggy, except the opponent is honorable and not a bunch of morons.  No thanks.

they still have to beat Wales. 

[atomheartbevo 89659]

This is the kind of shit these guys can actually be executed for, I believe.   

Even if not, it's desperate - they are scared shitless of Ukrainians taking Kherson and are trying to take out on-the-ground recon.

 

[Brisketexan 105123]

3 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

This is the kind of shit these guys can actually be executed for, I believe.   

Even if not, it's desperate - they are scared shitless of Ukrainians taking Kherson and are trying to take out on-the-ground recon.

 

Add it to the war crimes pile over there.....

[atomheartbevo 89659]

And yet Russian social media has been full of funerals of dead Russian soldiers.

Well, Russian social media was full of funeral notices, until those notices are removed by the government.

 

[atomheartbevo 89659]

 

[utee94 15820]

Provocation.

I do not think it means, what they think it means.

 

 

[atomheartbevo 89659]

 

[atomheartbevo 89659]

https://warontherocks.com/2022/05/what-the-experts-got-wrong-and-right-about-russian-military-power/

Quote

It is now widely understood that many observers, in advance of this war, over-estimated Russian military performance and underestimated Ukrainian military performance. Prominent among those observers are those who specialize in analyzing the Russian military. To better understand what they got right and wrong, Ryan put two of those specialists — Dara Massicot of RAND and Michael Kofman of CNA — into conversation with two people who approach this conflict as generalists — Chris Dougherty of the Center for a New American Security and Gian Gentile of RAND.

Hour-long podcast.

[Pods 7552]

Looks like Dvornikov has been sacked. Putin's purge continues. We'll see if his general purges can catch up with the repeated failures at Chornobaivka.  

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russias-top-commander-for-the-ukraine-war-hasnt-been-seen-for-2-weeks-report/ar-AAXWHJS

Quote

Before the Ukraine war, Dvornikov was dubbed "The Butcher of Syria" for his role in the Russian bombardment of the country in support of President Bashar al-Assad.

 

Edited June 1, 2022 by Pods

[atomheartbevo 89659]

Wow, these are stealthy and armed with Hellfires.  Upgraded Predators basically.

Ukrainian jets flying around.

 

[atomheartbevo 89659]

 

[atomheartbevo 89659]

T-80 pulling a T-64.  I'm picturing Russia rolling out T-34s in August.

 

 

[The Dog 44042]

Speaking of Kherson:

 

[atomheartbevo 89659]

UK sending M270 MLRS (HIMARS)with 50 mile range to Ukraine as well

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-06-01-22/index.html

Quote

Britain will send M270 launchers able to strike targets up to 80 kilometers (49.7 miles) away, offering “a significant boost in capability for the Ukrainian forces,” according to a statement from the British Foreign Office.

The move has been “coordinated closely” with the United States decision to provide Ukraine with its High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) – a variant of the multiple-launch rocket systems that will be gifted by the UK, the statement added. 

 

[atomheartbevo 89659]

Friend mentioned it would be just like the Russians to send a shitload of T-34s/T-54s into Ukraine, with just drivers and not actually capable of firing/fighting, to soak up Ukraine’s supply of ATGMs and other munitions.

Edited June 2, 2022 by atomheartbevo

[Sawbonz 27548]

6 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Friend mentioned it would be just like the Russians to send a shitload of T-34s/T-54s into Ukraine, with just drivers and not actually capable of firing/fighting, to soak up Ukraine’s supply of ATGMs and other munitions.

If that’s true you’re going to hear about a lot of officers getting backed over by tank drivers 

[atomheartbevo 89659]

This guy is located in Rostov-on-Don. I’ve mentioned him before.  He’s lived in the US and Ukraine.  Not happy about the war, but walks the line of not saying anything to get himself censored by the government.  He’s long-winded as hell, but unlike most Russian YouTubers, he’s in his 40s or 50s and has an actual perspective on era from the Soviet Union to Russia of today.

Anyways, he’s now talking about how the USSR is coming back.  Surprising for him, because it feels like he’s crossing the line over criticism of the government, bitching about a lack of choice or free opinion.

just something to have in the background if you’re curious, but like I said, long-winded and he repeats a lot. 
 

 

[atomheartbevo 89659]

 

[atomheartbevo 89659]