Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[atomheartbevo 89409]

Kind of surprised the Kremlin allowed this video out (or maybe they didn't realize it).  It's odd.

.  i

[atomheartbevo 89409]

Russia believes they are an empire and should act accordingly.  And keep threatening with nukes.

Texas getting a shout-out.

And Americans aren't very brave (after hanging in Afghanistan for a decade longer than they did).

And talking about placing Russian missiles in Nicaragua. 

And bitching at each other (at least that's a good sign).

 

[Ten Bears 2479]

14 hours ago, Snacks said:

Not gonna lie...  Once I got a bidet, I wish I could carry my toilet with me when I travel.

I know y'all like band names, so I slow you to claim "Putin's Bidet".

[Viper 12025]

1 hour ago, The Dog said:

Who wants to wager the dumbass Russians blow the dam and drown themselves?

The same army that dug trenches at Chernobyl? 

[Viper 12025]

34 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Russia believes they are an empire and should act accordingly.  And keep threatening with nukes.

Texas getting a shout-out.

And Americans aren't very brave (after hanging in Afghanistan for a decade longer than they did).

And talking about placing Russian missiles in Nicaragua. 

And bitching at each other (at least that's a good sign).

 

I see Ezra Miller is still getting work. 

[Bateshorn 9898]

22 minutes ago, Ten Bears said:

Never leave home without it.

[Trey3216 15325]

2 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

Never leave home without it.

"American Extricate, don't leave home without it." 

[InkaUtexas 25497]

 

[MillerEP 30339]

 

[atomheartbevo 89409]

37 minutes ago, Viper said:

I see Ezra Miller is still getting work. 

Have they looked in Russia for him and the teenager he groomed/kidnapped?

[MillerEP 30339]

^Seems odd to release the names if the end result is they're helping you.

[InkaUtexas 25497]

5 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

^Seems odd to release the names if the end result is they're helping you.

Nah, cuz everyone of them has a buddy in a different unit. "if Sergei is doing it, so can I" says Ivan the Captain. 

[Orange&White 5516]

8 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

^Seems odd to release the names if the end result is they're helping you.

It also scares other russians from doing the same. Truly bizarre that they would release that.

[MillerEP 30339]

Destruction of BMP-3 racists.

 

[atomheartbevo 89409]

16 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

^Seems odd to release the names if the end result is they're helping you

6 minutes ago, Orange&White said:

It also scares other russians from doing the same. Truly bizarre that they would release that.

Unless they are just making up names and causing the Russians to expend resources on a wild good chase (and create a shit-ton of suspicion between units).

 

[MillerEP 30339]

^Wouldn't it be a wonderful day if this is true.

Edited June 14, 2022 by MillerEP

[atomheartbevo 89409]

 

[Pato del Muerto 52340]

24 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

^Seems odd to release the names if the end result is they're helping you.

Maybe they aren’t sabotaging their own equipment, and this is psyops propaganda. 

[The Dog 43792]

 

 

[Pato del Muerto 52340]

Thanks Jack for maintaining the anonymity of your source.  How many high level DoD officials are on their way to Brussels?

[MillerEP 30339]

 

[Saint Austin 745]

3 hours ago, The Dog said:

If Kherson is retaken this week then I think Ukraine goes after Crimea next. 

That seems awfully ambitious, no?

[atomheartbevo 89409]

13 minutes ago, Saint Austin said:

That seems awfully ambitious, no?

Ukraine has pushed to within 6 miles of Kherson, and there's growing resistance within Kherson.

[Auto Driller 2504]

Back to this morning’s news, the loss of the third bridge to Sveredonetsk is clearly a bad thing. But the Ukrainian command has shown an excellent ability to plan their operations with a view on strategic (not tactical) victory so I’m hoping that the anticipated this outcome and planned accordingly. At the very least I hope that they stored enough food / water / ammunition / medicine inside the Azot chemical plan to withstand a months-long siege given the experience of Azovstal.

[InkaUtexas 25497]

15 minutes ago, Saint Austin said:

That seems awfully ambitious, no?

If the harpoons are operational, no. Crimea can be cut off from large resupply. Just need to put pressure on it and get the main urban areas under the gun. 

[atomheartbevo 89409]

2 minutes ago, Auto Driller said:

Back to this morning’s news, the loss of the third bridge to Sveredonetsk is clearly a bad thing. But the Ukrainian command has shown an excellent ability to plan their operations with a view on strategic (not tactical) victory so I’m hoping that the anticipated this outcome and planned accordingly. At the very least I hope that they stored enough food / water / ammunition / medicine inside the Azot chemical plan to withstand a months-long siege given the experience of Azovstal.

The good thing is that Ukraine has a lot of troops in the area, with a lot of artillery that can hit Russians advancing on the plant.

[MillerEP 30339]

 

[atomheartbevo 89409]

Long thread concerning comments made by the Undersecretary of Defense for Policy

Why we started giving Ukraine NATO artillery

 

[Chad Fuck 17557]

57 minutes ago, Orange&White said:

It also scares other russians from doing the same. Truly bizarre that they would release that.

Unless it's just a list of Russian officers and you're trying to sow dissent amongst them.

[InkaUtexas 25497]

Train would be a great target for a resistance group. 

[atomheartbevo 89409]

 

[atomheartbevo 89409]

 

[atomheartbevo 89409]

2 minutes ago, Chad Fuck said:

Unless it's just a list of Russian officers and you're trying to sow dissent amongst them.

If Ukraine could come up with a list of Russian officers who are the most brutal, efficient, and competent, that's the list I'd release and say "these guys are sabotaging Russian efforts in order to protect their own lives, make sure and treat them well if you capture them, they are helping out Ukraine!"

[Pato del Muerto 52340]

3 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Train would be a great target for a resistance group. 

Had the same thought many years ago after drops of Jupiter was released. 

Edited June 14, 2022 by Pato del Muerto
Yeeeeeeeaaaaaaaaaaah

[atomheartbevo 89409]

 

[atomheartbevo 89409]

I think I remember this guy from the Maidan documentary on Netflix.

 

[ABSR 5289]

6 hours ago, Slacks said:

Today.

Let's say this fight goes on for two years and Russia just continues to batter cities and relocate people. Then they won't need as many trips to hold the no longer existing cities.

Does this not seem like the new plan?

In 110ish days Russia has lost 30+ thousand soldiers (dead) and we can estimate 2-4 times that injured.   Their standing army is about 280K of soldier.  The soldiers sent into Ukraine were mostly top line contract soldiers and not conscripts (mostly).  Oryx shows 4,353 pieces of equipment lost and as this is solely a visual/picture identified inventory the real number will be higher.

So to continue this for just another 200 days at the same pace of operations would mean about 100K of their regular army dead and 1,500 pieces of equipment lost...approximately.   Two years??

As long as Ukraine has the means (West supporting with equipment, intel and training) and the will to fight (So far they have), eventually Russia will bleed out as an army and fighting force.  But it will be bloody and deadly for both sides.

[ABSR 5289]

6 hours ago, Slacks said:

Today.

Let's say this fight goes on for two years and Russia just continues to batter cities and relocate people. Then they won't need as many trips to hold the no longer existing cities.

Does this not seem like the new plan?

 

Edited June 14, 2022 by ABSR
Double post

[dimyh 1874]

3 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Like The Dog said, Russia needed to be on a full military footing both in terms of their population, their economy, and their manufacturing/production.  They needed to be able to fully call up the reserves and force any and all conscripts into combat, and to do that, Putin needed to declare war and the Duma had to support him - Putin does a lot of shady shit, but apparently he still abides by the Russian constitution when it comes to calling it a "special military operation" instead of "war".  

I don't know all the intricacies of the differences between "special military operation" and "war" in terms of Russia's constitution, but whatever they are, something about them has Putin unwilling to cross some line and declare it a "war".

In 1990, Iraq had well less than 20 million people, and a military of around 650,000 troops and we still invaded with a force of nearly a million troops.  The US had 700,000 troops alone in the invasion force. And we absolutely shocked and awed the shit out of their military and military infrastructure prior to Coalition boots crossing the border.

"Russia is fucked" because (and in addition to the above points in this post and other posts)

1. Putin skimped on the shock and awe.  You don't get to skimp  on shock and awe and then come back and do it later in piecemeal fashion, because Ukraine has now seen your hand and is now fully prepared, fully dispersed and they are shooting down your missiles/aircraft.  And in fact, there never was any kind of true Russian "shock and awe" in Ukraine in terms of what we did in Iraq in 1990 and 2003.
2. Russia has lost over 3 years worth of modern tank production (pre-sanctions) in terms of combat losses/captures.  And the industrial capacity to replace those tanks has been diminished by the sanctions/export bans - estimates are that it will take something more like 5-7 to replace those tanks.  And that's stuff that's still in production - many of their anti-air, comms, and command & control armored vehicles have been out of production for years (some going back to the 1990s).  Restarting old production lines to replace lost equipment is difficult enough as it is, since you have to train up people, get the machinery built and tested, etc., but combine it with the sanctions and they may not even have the components to replace that equipment.
3. They are blowing bridges, while having a severely diminished bridging/pontoon capacity. That's an indication that they are fucked and can't move any farther to the west. You don't blow bridges in the direction that you hope to advance.
4. They didn't have the logistics capability to properly invade - what they had logistics-wise is great if they think they will just roll in like they did with Crimea, but it does not work against an organized enemy, which is why their 40-mile column ran out of fucking gas north of Kyiv.
5. They are still running less than 200,000 troops in Ukraine, when they should have surged hundreds of thousands more once things stalled north of Kyiv.  
6. But they don't have hundreds of thousands more troops to surge, because active-duty Russian ground forces number under 280,000, and they have plenty of those still deployed in "frontier" areas, like along their southern/Asian borders, not to mention a shit-ton of conscripts that are technically not supposed to be in combat.

Russia just doesn't have the manpower, logistics, and hardware to actually occupy anything beyond where they are at, and technically they are controlling those areas and not truly occupying them.  There's a big difference between controlling roads and towns versus fully occupying the surrounding areas, this is what hurt them around Kyiv.

Quality video from Perun that covers a lot of the manpower issues on the Russian side that atom has been talking about since the start of the war. I'm not quite as optimistic in the overall outcome as you are due to concerns about western longterm support (money and heavy hardware) and stomach for a prolonged conflict if this turns into an attritional stalemate. But definitely agree that the Russian manpower/machinery ratios are out of whack and a severe limitation on an extended offensive push.

 

 

[utee94 15745]

8 minutes ago, ABSR said:

As long as Ukraine has the means (West supporting with equipment, intel and training) and the will to fight (So far they have), eventually Russia will bleed out as an army and fighting force.  But it will be bloody and deadly for both sides.

Sad but true.

Of course, the fact that Russian military and propagandists are now openly stating the goal is complete genocide and the removal of Ukraine, combined with the mountain of real-life evidence that Russia is indeed murdering all the civilians they possibly can, really leaves Ukraine no choice in the matter.  It's come down to fight and die resisting, or don't resist and be slaughtered anyway.

 

Edited June 14, 2022 by utee94

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11668]

in on 666 because this stuff is getting dark

[Pato del Muerto 52340]

5 minutes ago, utee94 said:

Sad but true.

Of course, the fact that Russian military and propagandists are now openly stating the goal is complete genocide and the removal of Ukraine, combined with the mountain of real-life evidence that Russia is indeed murdering all the civilians they possibly can, really leaves Ukraine no choice in the matter.  It's come down to fight and die resisting, or don't resist and be slaughtered anyway.

 

Not just that and them, but if the west loses resolve and russia takes Ukraine, it won’t settle back down. They are already talking about Ukraine’s neighbors and the baltics. Could be bluster, but history shows that when autocrats start taking land, they don’t stop until someone stops them. 

[Trey3216 15325]

20 minutes ago, utee94 said:

Sad but true.

Of course, the fact that Russian military and propagandists are now openly stating the goal is complete genocide and the removal of Ukraine, combined with the mountain of real-life evidence that Russia is indeed murdering all the civilians they possibly can, really leaves Ukraine no choice in the matter.  It's come down to fight and die resisting, or don't resist and be slaughtered anyway.

 

And at some point, a Baltic state or Poland is gonna fully jump in because they’ve had it.   

[Chad Fuck 17557]

20 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Not just that and them, but if the west loses resolve and russia takes Ukraine, it won’t settle back down. They are already talking about Ukraine’s neighbors and the baltics. Could be bluster, but history shows that when autocrats start taking land, they don’t stop until someone stops them. 

It isn't bluster.  It's what they've already shown us they do.  It's their plan.  They took little pieces of Georgia, and Moldova, and Ukraine.  Then they rubbed their balls in the West's face and said, "You ain't gonna do shit about it."  And...we didn't.  We were looking at the short term costs, not the long term costs.  Now we're dealing with it.  We can deal with it now, or we deal with it later.  Dealing with it later is always more expensive.  

[InkaUtexas 25497]

35 minutes ago, dimyh said:

Quality video from Perun that covers a lot of the manpower issues on the Russian side that atom has been talking about since the start of the war. I'm not quite as optimistic in the overall outcome as you are due to concerns about western longterm support (money and heavy hardware) and stomach for a prolonged conflict if this turns into an attritional stalemate. But definitely agree that the Russian manpower/machinery ratios are out of whack and a severe limitation on an extended offensive push.

 

 

This is damn good explanation. 

[InkaUtexas 25497]

Just saw what page we are on. I live in the Triple 6 so this hits close to home. 

Again, damn fine thread. 

[Brisketexan 104560]

This should be the page that discusses the high point of Russian advances -- the most hellish of results.  And after this.....an ever-declining position for those fucks.

[The Dog 43792]

 

[Grimas 659]

3 hours ago, Bateshorn said:

Never leave home without it.

This remined me to make an Amazon order for one before a trip next week... 

[Pato del Muerto 52340]

1 hour ago, Trey3216 said:

And at some point, a Baltic state or Poland is gonna fully jump in because they’ve had it.   

The thing is, russia needs to be able to fight on one front at a time.  How well would they do if Poland and Estonia both said fuck this and started lobbing missiles onto Russian supplies/manufacturing?  Even if russia fully goes to a war footing, what supplies and troops do they have to spread across multiple fronts?  What kind of logistical power could they use, when logistics to one battle theater is kicking their ass?

same shit happened with Germany. We let them advance east at first unchecked. Then they advanced west while under treaty with the ussr. Got all of mainland Europe before turning on russia.  Only when they had to fight west and east simultaneously did they start losing. And we only were able to forge a western front because Germany didn’t invade Britain. 
 

have to split their attention, putin is happy to trade 2 dead Russians for 1 dead Ukrainian until all the Ukrainians are dead.