Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[utee94 15744]

37 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

 putin is happy to trade 2 dead Russians for 1 dead Ukrainian until all the Ukrainians are dead. 

Indeed.  Which is why we have to help Ukraine make it 10 dead Russians for every dead Ukrainian.  And if that's not enough, 100 dead Russians.

Putin doesn't care, but eventually they're going to run out of Russian soldiers.

[27-25 2040]

1 hour ago, Pato del Muerto said:

How well would they do if Poland and Estonia both said fuck this and started lobbing missiles onto Russian supplies/manufacturing?

I have no idea how NATO would handle such a scenario.  Does Article 5 even apply if a NATO member attacks another country (Russia in this case) first and then Russia retaliates?

[atomheartbevo 89396]

3 hours ago, utee94 said:

Sad but true.

Of course, the fact that Russian military and propagandists are now openly stating the goal is complete genocide and the removal of Ukraine, combined with the mountain of real-life evidence that Russia is indeed murdering all the civilians they possibly can, really leaves Ukraine no choice in the matter.  It's come down to fight and die resisting, or don't resist and be slaughtered anyway.

The calls by the talking heads for destruction of Ukraine is probably a reflection of them knowing they can't hold any major parts of Ukraine outside of Crimea.

They will destroy parts of Ukraine on the way out, and sell that to the Russian public as "we did what we set out to do - remove the threat that Ukraine posed to us."

1 hour ago, Pato del Muerto said:

The thing is, russia needs to be able to fight on one front at a time.  How well would they do if Poland and Estonia both said fuck this and started lobbing missiles onto Russian supplies/manufacturing?  

Belarus.  Belarus has 9 million people, and around 62,000 troops in all of their armed forces and most of those are conscripts (another 300,000+ reserves, but given sketchy Russia's reserves are, Belarus's would be worse).  If Belarus fucked around in Ukraine and Ukraine took them on, or one of the neighboring countries did something to Belarus, or say NATO was able to get an insurgency going in Belarus, Russia would be screwed - they would have to move a shitload of troops into Belarus, because Putin can't rely on their military.

[atomheartbevo 89396]

2 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

This should be the page that discusses the high point of Russian advances -- the most hellish of results.  And after this.....an ever-declining position for those fucks.

They can't sustain this level of deaths in the officer corps.  @KilledInUkraine mentioned that Russia is now actively scrubbing Russian social media and state sites mentioning funerals and death notices, and putting out orders to the providers/admins/etc. to not even allow the mentions in the first place.  So the number of known Russian officers is dropping as a result.

 

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3868]

They can't sustain this level of deaths in the officer corps.  @KilledInUkraine mentioned that Russia is now actively scrubbing Russian social media and state sites mentioning funerals and death notices, and putting out orders to the providers/admins/etc. to not even allow the mentions in the first place.  So the number of known Russian officers is dropping as a result.

 

Which gets back to the theory that the complete collapse of RUF will happen before anyone tells Putin it could happen as no one wants to take a 5 story fall out of a basement window.

[bolverk 29394]

4 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

If the harpoons are operational, no. Crimea can be cut off from large resupply. Just need to put pressure on it and get the main urban areas under the gun. 

What would it take for Ukraine to have a realistic chance to take out the Kerch Bridge? How close would they have to be for their long range missiles to be able to reach?

3 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

And at some point, a Baltic state or Poland is gonna fully jump in because they’ve had it.   

If they did, my hope is they'd first go after the Königsberg exclave to get rid of that geographic abomination.

[atomheartbevo 89396]

1 minute ago, bolverk said:

What would it take for Ukraine to have a realistic chance to take out the Kerch Bridge? How close would they have to be for their long range missiles to be able to reach?

When Ukraine starts to threaten Crimea, I'd almost think the Russians would have to be more worried about Ukrainian special operations folks doing it, or drones.

But the US is also going to be providing larger UAVs that can fire Hellfire missiles.

And Ukraine would be able to use their current UAVs/drones to disable vehicles on the bridge, which could jam up traffic, which could lead to even more juicy targets, etc.

[Grimas 659]

3 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

And at some point, a Baltic state or Poland is gonna fully jump in because they’ve had it.   

The Baltics combine only have 6 million people with Lithuania having about half of those...  Poland on the other hand has something like 40 million...

[Viper 12018]

4 hours ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Not just that and them, but if the west loses resolve and russia takes Ukraine, it won’t settle back down. They are already talking about Ukraine’s neighbors and the baltics. Could be bluster, but history shows that when autocrats start taking land, they don’t stop until someone stops them. 

I've been playing a lot of Europa Universalis IV lately so this hits close to home

[dimyh 1874]

59 minutes ago, Viper said:

I've been playing a lot of Europa Universalis IV lately so this hits close to home

Unfortunately France and HRE are different culture groups so even after annexing Crimea and starting another no CB war its not going to generate enough AE to trigger a coalition.

[dimyh 1874]

More on the Ukes counter offensive towards Kherson. The one consistent tactical advantage has been the flexibility and mobility of the Ukrainian infantry. Since they have an inverse composition problem than the Russians, with more foot soldiers and not enough heavy firepower, maybe they can leverage broad counter attacks to negate losses vs the main Russian attack force. 

Russia has adapted from their initial mistake of trying to attack everywhere all at once. By amassing artillery they can achieve local domination to slowly grind out territory. The big question is if Ukrainian defensive lines around Severodonetsk/Lyshansk area can hold long enough for the counter offensives to score wins in the south. Especially unsure if the Ukrainian forces have enough to quickly regain Kherson. They might get bogged down in urban fighting. Overall it is still a major attritional war but if they keep a fluid counter attack strategy going they might be able to out maneuver the Russians who can only push when they have artillery dominance.

 

 

[Schulz2.0 28761]

 

[Schulz2.0 28761]

 

[Schulz2.0 28761]

 

[MillerEP 30339]

Only tangentially related since it's Poland, but umm...You gotta see this pictures:

https://mymodernmet.com/4th-of-july-larp-poland/?utm_source=GetTheElevatordotcom

Polish People Are Role Playing as Americans Celebrating the 4th of July
By Sara Barnes on June 8, 2022

[AUS-97HORN 11669]

Drewno*

 

 

*Polish for wood.

[dimyh 1874]

14 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

Only tangentially related since it's Poland, but umm...You gotta see this pictures:

https://mymodernmet.com/4th-of-july-larp-poland/?utm_source=GetTheElevatordotcom

Polish People Are Role Playing as Americans Celebrating the 4th of July
By Sara Barnes on June 8, 

 

 DAMN THOSE RUDE AMERICANS!

 

[MillerEP 30339]

 

[MillerEP 30339]

Our comrades from the 79th separate airborne assault brigade Mykolayiv recorded another destroyed enemy target.

 They blew up the BAT-2 paver of the Russian occupiers. This technique is used for engineering works in the construction of columns.

Severodonetsk.

[MillerEP 30339]

NATO is preparing a plan to transfer Ukraine to the Alliance - Stoltenberg.

 The Secretary General of the Alliance also announced a new batch of military assistance to Ukraine, including heavy weapons and long-range artillery.

A mural depicting the sapper dog Patron appeared in Uzhhorod. Uzhhorod artist Kateryna Tuz painted on the wall of Avangard Stadium.

Greece will provide Ukraine with up to 30 units of infantry fighting vehicles - BMP-1. This was stated by Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis.

[MillerEP 30339]

Artillery 80 ODSHBR destroyed two complexes of multiple rocket launcher (MLRS) 9K57 "Hurricane" caliber 220 mm, one combat vehicle charging vehicle (BTZM) to "Hurricane", one armored personnel carrier, armored vehicle "Tiger", two trucks and a warehouse.

In the Sumy region during the fighting in April, Ukrainian defenders trophied the Russian armored car "Typhoon-K"

 

[MillerEP 30339]

 

[MillerEP 30339]

 

[MillerEP 30339]

 

[MillerEP 30339]

 

[MillerEP 30339]

 

[The Dog 43785]

Ukraine having logistics problems. NATO needs to provide gear, but needs to do so in a way that Ukraine can support:

"Finding out" time in Mariupol:

Another report of Putin (that's who "Huylo" is) being in a coma:

 

[TexasToast 728]

https://www.smobserved.com/story/2022/06/15/news/rumor-putin-is-in-a-coma-after-surgery/6829.html

[Viper 12018]

7 minutes ago, TexasToast said:

https://www.smobserved.com/story/2022/06/15/news/rumor-putin-is-in-a-coma-after-surgery/6829.html

Quote

Maria Pevchikha, one of Alexei Navalny's lawyers, tweeted that he has been transferred and disappeared within the prison system. This is relevant because he is the most obvious alternative to Putin. He "is missing from the Pokrov penal colony. He didn't show up for the meeting with his lawyers today. We have no further information on where Navalny is being taken," tweeted Pevchicha.

 The timing is interesting...

[atomheartbevo 89396]

8 minutes ago, Viper said:

 The timing is interesting...

Extremely.  If something were wrong with Putin, whoever is looking to replace him would definitely be trying to get rid of any potential opposition.  

[InkaUtexas 25486]

Yay! 

 

[MillerEP 30339]

 

[MillerEP 30339]

 

[maninblack 7974]

So dumb

[MillerEP 30339]

 

[Laxtonto 11927]

57 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Extremely.  If something were wrong with Putin, whoever is looking to replace him would definitely be trying to get rid of any potential opposition.  

If Putin somehow did fall into a coma, then what? 
 

Yes, it allows an easy off ramp for the RU leader to reassess the Ukrainian situation, but what does that even mean?

There is no large scale dissenting populist viewpoint within  Russia regarding the “police action” because of the wide spread control of the media. With a new leader, it would be foolish to assume that Russia would be willing to go back any preexisting border because it would then require having to justify this move to a populous that has been told not only are they doing this to bring back glory to the Russian empire but also they are absolutely winning this engagement and is a precursor to an engagement with NATO.

 

How would a new leader walk that back and stay in power? How would the west be willing to remove sanctions knowing that it is very likely the new leader is potentially a short timer with no real answer of what or who would be really running the country. 
 

My guess would be a halt of all offensive actions and try and force the Ukraine to cede the current occupied territory and the west keeps up the sanctions and we see a rebirth of the long Cold War on the borders of Eastern Europe in this type of scenario.

 

In many ways they would be better off with any oligarch driven over throw and the internal display of political power over who is running Russia than seeing Putin die in a coma…

 

I think it would be a shit show scenario, but would still be better than the current status quo.

Edited June 15, 2022 by Laxtonto
Fuck you autocorrect

[tokamak 6350]

21 minutes ago, Laxtonto said:

If Putin somehow did fall into a comma, then what?

Depends. Oxford, or regular?

[MoJames 8241]

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3868]

If Putin somehow did fall into a coma, then what? 
 
Yes, it allows an easy off ramp for the RU leader to reassess the Ukrainian situation, but what does that even mean?
There is no large scale dissenting populist viewpoint within  Russia regarding the “police action” because of the wide spread control of the media. With a new leader, it would be foolish to assume that Russia would be willing to go back any preexisting border because it would then require having to justify this move to a populous that has been told not only are they doing this to bring back glory to the Russian empire but also they are absolutely winning this engagement and is a precursor to an engagement with NATO.
 
How would a new leader walk that back and stay in power? How would the west be willing to remove sanctions knowing that it is very likely the new leader is potentially a short timer with no real answer of what or who would be really running the country. 
 
My guess would be a halt of all offensive actions and try and force the Ukraine to cede the current occupied territory and the west keeps up the sanctions and we see a rebirth of the long Cold War on the borders of Eastern Europe in this type of scenario.
 
In many ways they would be better off with any oligarch driven over throw and the internal display of political power over who is running Russia than seeing Putin die in a coma…
 
I think it would be a shit show scenario, but would still be better than the current status quo.

Great opportunity to purge everyone associated with Putin by showing the people everything they’ve been told about the special operation is a complete lie.

[AUS-97HORN 11669]

3 minutes ago, ShaggyBevo RIP said:

Great opportunity to purge everyone associated with Putin by showing the people everything they’ve been told about the special operation is a complete lie.

El

Oh

EL

 

on what fucking planet is Russia ever going to come clean on this.  The only guy, who MIGHT be able to do that is Navalny and he just got another 15 years in the siberian gulag.

[Orange&White 5516]

If Putin is dead, doesn't that simply mean that Medvedev takes over? He's talking more trash about using nukes than Putin.

 

[MillerEP 30339]

I would imagine there would be a bit of a power struggle, there are too many oligarchs who need government cover, and too many intelligence services for everything to just transition smoothly. I don't expect any military coup or anything, but I imagine there would be some big wigs purging and duking it out in the halls of the Kremlin.

[Rimbo 25766]

4 hours ago, MillerEP said:

Only tangentially related since it's Poland, but umm...You gotta see this pictures:

https://mymodernmet.com/4th-of-july-larp-poland/?utm_source=GetTheElevatordotcom

Polish People Are Role Playing as Americans Celebrating the 4th of July
By Sara Barnes on June 8, 2022

We have a huge team in Poland at work, and our co-workers there shared that with us. I asked the team lead: "Great, when's 'burn the Soviet flag day?'"

He replied, "That's every day."

[Laxtonto 11927]

5 minutes ago, ShaggyBevo RIP said:

Great opportunity to purge everyone associated with Putin by showing the people everything they’ve been told about the special operation is a complete lie.

 

How? It is one of those ideas that sounds very much idealistic "American" in nature in which the truth will enlighten the populous and then we will see a titanic shift to what is "right". Instead, we are dealing with a populous that has been habitually lied to and have willingly and knowingly embarrassed that state control of the media. They don't want the truth they want to embrace the greatness of Mother Russia and the mythos the state provides them.

Some cultures don't want absolute truth, they want the state to tell them what the truth really is that falls in line with the historical predestination of their cultural views. Afghanistan, Iraq, Russia, Lybia etc are all examples of the populous refusing to be willing to embrace the "truth" to the preference of their cultural or tribal "truth" after American intervention.

 

How do you counteract that type of belief suddenly to the level needed to pull out of Ukraine and expect to still be in power 6 months from now when the Russian economy continues to crater and the population feels you made Russia concede defeat as a weak leader that is only in power because Putin got sick.

 

[Rimbo 25766]

3 hours ago, The Dog said:

Ukraine having logistics problems. NATO needs to provide gear, but needs to do so in a way that Ukraine can support:

"Finding out" time in Mariupol:

Another report of Putin (that's who "Huylo" is) being in a coma:

 

"Multiple reports" most likely means "bloggers repeating the same fictitious report," most likely. Until I see the dead body, that's my assumption.

[MillerEP 30339]

 

[MillerEP 30339]

 

[MillerEP 30339]

 

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3868]

"Multiple reports" most likely means "bloggers repeating the same fictitious report," most likely. Until I see the dead body, that's my assumption.

Navalny’s sudden disappearance is what gives the most credence to the rumor.

[bolverk 29394]

Screenshot of interactive map showing how big the occupied area is.